Thank you! That’s a very well produced and clear presentation. Thank you for taking the time to write out your thoughts and present them in a straightforward manner. I learned a lot, and I’m sure others are as well. Keep up your good work!

I just had an amazing WG angels and +1/+1 deck on pre release and only dropped a single game to "mull to five versus aggro nuts". It's fun to see it so low on your rankings. Looking forward to watching the rest of the video.

I think this set will not be as slow as people think core set will be. First we have rule change, second red have two creatures will hurt you face when they have instantce and sorcery. And red sorcery also can hurt you face. So I think red will be very aggressive. But I have we can a slow set. I'm very looking forward to play big creatures, especially the seven deaths.

This video is so great, because I finally realize how judge what color is open. But I also want to know when to choose two drop, when to draw 4 drop. I mean how to consider the final deck will be more aggressive need more 2drop. I know basic rules like 4-5 2 drop, 4-5 3drop, 3-4 4drop and 2-3 5-6 drop. But I don't know how to use these to apply my draft😢. I draw a lot of two drop, but I find I'm lacking removal and 5-6 drop. Because I don't find the good removal in draft. Only some mediocre, even not my color.

Even at max quality and fullscreen I can't read the names of all the cards. It hurts my eyes.

11:09 I think you should only include the average of the top X cards of each particular archetype, as some cards won't be drafted or used even if they are in a particular archetype. Thus an archetype with polarised cards, i.e. some really good and some abysmal, will show as average in your calc, but will most likely play quite well, especially if the number of cards in that archetype easilly exceeds that which you need to draft or open in sealed. Not sure what to set X as yet though.

Thank you! Extremely useful!

I have a question is about draft. I recently have my first 7-2 deck, it's a no rare deck red green deck. But when I have good mythic like white overlord in blue white deck or doll House and Anabelle in my red white deck I go 1-3. I just don't get it. When I have no rare I'm 4-3, when I have bombs I go 0-3. I will have land flow, stuck no other color or don't have removal. It's so weird, I don't know it's because my draft is so terrible or it's just bad luck 😢. And do you it's right to splash black for removal. When I draft I will choose a lot of good 2 drop but I just can't find enough removal to get rid of my opponent or I just can't draw it in my play😢

What a great video highlighting almost all great duskmourn draft combos. Very much looking forward to video on foundations if possible since it’s a huge set. Thanks a lot

I feel this skill is becoming less important due to how quickly 17lands gets fairly accurate data. If youre playing on day 2 of a format the data wont be super accurate, but you will already have a good idea of which archtypes to go for, which to avoid, which cards perform well overall and which dont. By week 2 youll already have a good idea of which cards perform well in each archtype. That said, I still think it is an important skill because what's harder than base-level evaluations is evaluating how well a card fits your particular deck, and how your deck compares to the average; and the only way you can get good at that is by first being good at the base-level card evaluations mentioned in this video. One mistake I made earlier in my draft play was relying too much on the data without thinking of the context. I now legitimately feel that a cards Game-In-Hand winrate% stat can shift hy +/-10% based on how it fits in your deck. E.g. i used to just think something along the lines of "oh Patchwork banner! It has a nice GIH WR and goes in any deck, it definitely makes my deck!" and that might still be true, but if my deck somehow only has 2 of any individual creature type (not sure how a bloomburrow deck would do that, but let's just say it does haha) then Patchwork Banner is going to be significantly worse in my deck than the stats would suggest, and perhaps im better running a slightly lower GIH WR card instead since in my deck that card might actually have a higher winrate. On the flip-side if my deck only ended up with nothing but rabbits, then patchwork banner is going to be even better than the stats suggest. Similarly for archtype's power level: i remember Chord O Calls and his card evaluation partner Mark making the comment that they noticed lately that if a an archtype had two strong signpost uncommons then that archtype was likely going to be strong. But then i thought, that also means that if an archtype only has one signpost uncommon that's great and one thats bad/fine then the stats will show that archtype as only fine on average, but obviously if you get the deck which has 3 of the good signpost uncommon and not the bad signpost then that deck is going to be better than the best archtypes on average (e.g. in Duskmourn a good example is probably a RB deck with 3 Disturbing Mirths vs 3 Skinrippers... Skinripper is a fine card, but I think the 3 mirths deck is going to severely outplay the stats and the 3 skinrippers deck will probably be somewhat accurate to the stats).

I appreciate where you highlight disagreements on rating, and where you were a bit wrong in hindsight. Great perspectives.

Well, I guess I've got homework to do...

Could there be any reasonable reason why this has broadening borders on the side? Why wouldn't you want a short to be full screen? They are all vertical.

This made little to no sense

Im curious as to whether you ever watch Sierkowitz's content/analysis? He did some data analysis a long time ago during Streets Of New Capenna where he essentially said that the data showed you could NOT see an open lane based only on whether you see a good common pick 6 or less. In his example he looked at Inspiring Overseer (which was a busted common that was more powerful than most rares in the set and warped the format). He found that even seeing a pick 6 Inspiring Overseer did not end up indicating that white was open (i.e. you didnt get passed any extra good cards in pack 3 if you saw a pick 6 Inspiring Overseer compared to if you didnt see it). He does end up coming up with an obtuse method for determining if a colour is open, but its unrealistic to use it and even if you did use it it only actually indicates open colours a very small percentage of the time. This makes me think that perhaps the better strategy is to initially try to stay open to the modt decent archtypes as you say, and then eventually try to force a colour combo rather than read signals. Because i feel like if a 6th pick inspiring overseer is not a signal, then the absence of it or raffine's informant (another decent white card in that format) also shouldnt be signals that white is cut, it could just be that there wasnt many good options in the packs. Id be curious to hear your thoughts on this. Also, in this video, i think i would have liked your analysis on what would have happened it Paul stuck to forcing a green deck (not necessarily green black i guess), would that have turned out better than conceding into a poor archtype?

Very insightful video, but it brings up an interesting contention because Paul is one of the best drafters in the world, so it sort of makes me feel a bit conflicted as to whether your advice is correct or his strategy is correct: i.e. sure, it doesn't work out in this particular draft, but is doing Paul's strategy going to turn out better more often? (As I watch this he is fighting for Mythic #1 in Duskmourn... So his draft strategy obviously works the majority of the time...) I think in Duskmourn it's a bit more important to have powerful cards than synergistic commons, so perhaps his strategy makes more sense in that context. I think in general I personally go with your strategy over his more often as I try to improve.

Subscribing just to see more draft advice videos, but I'd say you shouldnt have included the whole draft of that other guy without providing commentary over the top of it, for a few reasons: -You're sort of just leeching of his content rather than providing insight on his picks (I know you provide commentary at the end, I think you could have done so without putting his whole draft in; or provided commentary over the top while he was drafting instead of just staying silent). -I'm not sure his draft was a good example of how to fix during the draft, even though it was multi colour splashing, and he considered 18lands, he just sort of got gifted all the fixing rather than prioritising it. Most drafts people would cut off your fixing so you're not just going to get 10th pick lands that are perfect for your fixing (sometimes yes, but I don't think it should be your strategy 😅). I know he's a good player and would have started prioritising it if he needed to, but in this draft he just got lucky and got gifted it throughout without needing to make any tough choices. -It really padded out your video timewise without providing heaps of extra insight. This could have been a 10-15min video if you cut the draft and/or only included some relevant picks in the video, or even if you just talked about his final deck list and how he ended up there. I think it's important to include examples, but I don't think having one example take up so long of the video is ideal. Hope you take the feedback as just that and I hope it doesn't come across as too critical . I did find it an informative video overall.

a lot of your analysis of Lola is ultimately useless for the vast majority of player and I am talking 99%. Lola is great at pathing and mental load and can pilot his decks in a way that most drafts cannot. While this deck works for him most would trip and fail on it and go 0-3. You can watch the same stuff happen with MTG monster where she runs 4 colors and runs it at 7-0 where no one else could. This is a huge caveat that has to be said when you are giving advice. They are drafting to a win con and have their entire deck logged in memory, where most players barely know what is in their deck. That's the difference between a #1 drafter and the rest of us.

2:45 On the point of cheap filtering - I would think that cards that let you loot or rummage allow for playing MORE lands as you can easily get rid of the excess while minimising the risk of mana screw early on. It just feels more like drawing cards when your Canyon Crab gets rid of an extra land then when you bin your worst spell to draw an unknown card. Plus your average spell quality goes up a bit. I'm not convinced about this one Do you have mana recommendations for splashing double-pipped spells? Is 5 sources enough to splash an Overlord?

Great video as usual :D. But I think you should link the video and the channel of the drafter?

Great video, once again! Thank you for the tips. I'm now conviced I need to subscribe and not just see you fly by every now and then.

Very good info! This is stuff I kinda knew, but having some real numbers to back up your land choices makes it a lot more solid than just going with what feels right.

Your video's helped me look at drafting differently. Completely changed my perspective and really helped.

Your P1P6 stumped me - you have 2 red and 3 green cards, green is the most open by your own tally count. You notice that the best cards in the pack are white (one of the more closed colours so far), so you throw away green based on that one pack (by making white your primary colour - you're never going WG) and based on the decision to go white, you pick... a blue card. You mentioned that "recency matters too", but here a strong signal in one pack overthrew everything else - both the tally count and the picks you've already made. And the fact you chose Glimmerburst over Trapped In The Screen adds to the confusion. I think decisions like that should be explained more carefully Also - you're using Sierko's bar chart to show how card power diminishes every pick, then you follow with a draft where the first two packs had nothing for you in the first five picks, not the best example ;) I like your videos though, very valuable for me and I'll try and practise some modified version of this tallying in mock drafts :) cheers

That's a really nice deck, thanks for going over the deck tech! I actually drafted a dual Mindskinner deck at my LGS this week. It was an 11 person draft with no one else in blue, so it came out even more absurd 😄

Amazing video! Super helpful

hey just wanted to say thanks for this episode. i've been struggling to make UG work in the format, and was able to identify pretty clearly some of my deck building problems. i tend to 'paint by numbers' when it comes to building decks i'm not as familiar with, with a bias towards pro-active gameplans, and i'm typically too nervous to lean into the control side of things. i've definitely fallen into the traps you outlined as far as not having a cohesive deck that fully capitalises on the cards hidden power-level in a given shell. just picked up a trophy with a solid UG control deck. it had 4x copies of twist reality, and ways to board in more aggressive threats if the matchup was suitable (Best of 3 queue) 👍looking forward to more content from the channel!

This was a good example, as the drafter totally thinks the way I do through most drafts. At 13:22 you take Terramorphic Expanse, and if I was in the same process of wanting to go white-blue I'd probably have taken the Verge... I tend to not think about "if my current strategy fails" so your reasoning there helps me.

I mean, I think the first bad pick was taking a removal in p1p1. I would immediately pick Wickerfolk Trasher. Decent winrate, usable in both GR and BG (both decent archetypes). Why take the removal first? The delirium was wide open, and he completely ignored good green cards in favour of pretty risky speculation Ok after watching it all, yes, GR was definitely open. And probably better than UW without signpost uncommons

I think I would have ended up esper just splashing the screens

this seems like a super useful concept, but i’m having a hard time understanding how to apply it trying to follow both Dafore’s draft picks and the picks you’re suggesting. when you’re tallying colors, are you counting the good cards of each color in each pack regardless of what you pick or are you only counting the good cards you pass?

Great video as always. Don't know how easy this would be, but if we could see the (ongoing) cards you picked during the draft it would help us see the flow of your draft better instead of the context of the single pick.

Hit the nail directly on the head for my comment. Thanks man!

The tally is a great way to objectively choose color instead of the gut check, can't wait to test this one out.

Thanks for this vid! I'm wondering what your thoughts are on using Top Player data on 17lands instead of All Users in regards to determining stand-out cards. For example, in P1P2, Fear of Isolation has a 2.1% higher WR than Razorkin Hordecaller if we filter by Top Players, so I would be snapping that up even though we started with a red card.

Super useful advice, even if you are doing quick draft on Arena, where there aren't really signals, but you are still trying to manage what cards are going to wheel. Using a system rather than relying on gut instinct is always going to be better. Good stuff.

I haven't played nearly as many drafts as I wanted to recently Highly appreciate the educational content Really miss Bloomburrow and it's wholesome little buddies XD

yeah, seems like a case of letting nerves get to you and cloud how obvious the boros deck is

Great content subbed

This video has been enlightning for me. I feel like i have learned something fundamental of the basis of draft. Is there any way I can follow you on any social or live streams?

This is great! A very practical system that doesn’t rely on just feeling which colors are open. Will definitely be using this for my next draft!

Wow, this is some real high quality content! There’s a lot of good draft content on KZbin, but you manage to focus on very solid, practical advice rather than just telling people what the best cards are. Very well done!

I've often made the mistake of spending pack 1 thinking of what I'm passing to others more than what I'm receiving as determining where I'm open but this and the video on determinining open colors have me willing to trust the player passing me in p1 and p3 more than general availability of colors across the pool. Interested to try it out and report back.

Nice overview :) I like this video format, especially emphasising the game plans of each deck. I feel like understanding all sub-archetypes instead of just associating each colour pair with its most common sub-archetype helps a lot in navigating drafts. And this link to draft navigation is the one thing missing for me in this video: what is your estimate of how often you will be able to play each of the decks? When should I go for them? Early bombs of other colours would push me towards control, but if the lane seems completely open, I'm assuming the more assertive version is usually going to end up stronger? There's probably more to that and it would be interesting to hear your thoughts :) Great video!

I may have completely missed it, but how did the points system work? I feel it's the last step I need to understand this whole thing.

I implemented the recommendations you gave us in the last two videos and... Holy shit! It makes such a huge difference even in plat 4

Seeing the skinripper pick 3 I think would have sold me lol. Really surprised you didn't even mention that card as being good? This is a very odd draft though every new pack is like "huh?" What's going on. Pack 2 pick 10 rb wide open! I'd feel decent about where I was at and pray for mirth pack 3. I'd be in a pretty good position to be mardu I think too for the mayhems.

cool vid , learned alot :) keep up the good work

I applied last video's tips on my most recent draft (I only draft twice a week) and I belive the whole table ended up with subpar decks (I'm also in Gold). However, high level events like these it looks like everyone knows waht their doing and signals become clearer. At least that is my perspective :(

Yooo nice video, this lines up with everything i've thought about UG. Maybe consider a video about UB. I have no idea when to angle towards it instead of UW in the drafts atm