I agree and would also like to see a $1B stock buyback. It would show Zaslav, Weidenfels, Malone, and the team have confidence in Warner Bros Discovery to backup their bullish talk. I would also like to see more insider buying.
@Syth_L0rd10 күн бұрын
I thought they announced a password crackdown that would spike subs domestically. I know Disney and Netflix already have and have benefitted from that, but Wbd has not yet and that might bump them up on that.
@MISSY4EVRАй бұрын
I kicking myself for not buying when I started looking at it. Now I have to wait for a dip.
@mattanonysaurousrexАй бұрын
Good video, good points! I think even if google can't pay Apple to default, Apple will just ask users if they want to keep their default settings, so the only real user turnover would be brand new users to Apple. This is actually a sizable hit to Apple's bottom line. That's 100% margin cash for them. From a consumer perspective I really hope each generative AI model gets a fair shake. What I'm afraid of is Apple or Google will have inferior models, and it won't matter because platforms will just default to them. Worst case scenario is they'll use this advantage to manipulate models for their own agendas.
@aightm8Ай бұрын
They don't benefit that much from lower interest rates. Companies with fixed debts benefit from higher rates because they can buy back the principle at a discount. Which WBD has been doing. I believe last quarter they bought back or refinanced around 2.3BN but it only cost them 1.8
@TimeintheMarketАй бұрын
Indeed they have been, they should have a long runway for that since their fixed rate debt is pretty low.
@drstone116722 күн бұрын
🆘 Warner Brothers Discovery/ CNN management my WBD stock was worth $34.63 per share when Trump was President and on Friday 9/27/24 it closed at $8.38 per share down 75% in value under WBD failed leadership and Biden/Harris failed economy. The WBD stock chart below ⬇️ doesn’t lie like your woke liberal bias reporters do daily at CNN Fake News. 🆘CNN Fake News: Here are some of the reasons why Donald Trump will be re-elected President, regardless of the biased liberal constant negative lying fake news. Kamala Harris the past 3 years and 9 months have been a nightmare for average American family and she owns it. The liberal biased fake news people may cover and make excuses for Harris but you can’t fool the American voters who have been living this nightmare. ❌So far here are 3- of the proposals VP Kamala Harris said she would do if elected president. 1. To fix prices on corporations 2. To raise corporate tax rates from 21% the 28%. 3. Allow Evil Baby killing Abortion for women through the 9 month of pregnancy in all 50 states. ✔️Remember Kamala Harris you were appointed the border Czar by Joe Biden. How did that work out for our country? Over 10 million illegals later pouring in the country, along with criminals, gang members, terrorists and drugs that have killed 250,000 Americans. Many of the illegals have raped, robbed, and beat police and US citizens. That is a fact. If you couldn’t do the job as border Czar as vice president, how the hell are you going to do a good job running the whole country? Life was much better under President Trump 4 years ago with low inflation, low gas prices, low food prices, low mortgage interest rate, lower costs for heating, electric bills, auto insurance and home insurance and we weren’t involved in funding 2- wars. ✝️God help us all if voters are dumb enough to vote for radical democrats Harris & Walz, and the liberal fake news folks lie about their radical failed records and we have voter cheating that helps get the two radical liars elected.
@IamnotJokicАй бұрын
I didn’t touch Celsius but do have a position in MNST. Their recent earnings weren’t too great, but they did mention that price increases were on the horizon. With their main customer base at the forefront of a looming recession, I’m unsure how a price increase will affect their sales. But I feel more confident in MNST’s product lines than any other energy drink company’s.
@mattanonysaurousrexАй бұрын
It is unclear to me what management meant when they stated that the sell though was up 10% in the quarter. Does that mean July and August were 10% better than July and August of 2023 or that July and August 2024 have already sold 10% more than July, August, and September 2023.
@TimeintheMarketАй бұрын
I think they said quarter to date so I assume it was up to this time this quarter vs this same time frame last quarter.
@TimeintheMarketАй бұрын
On a scale of 10-10, how good are my paint skills?
@mattanonysaurousrexАй бұрын
I agree. It's hard to predict when a consumer brand will stop growing. Yes, shoes are a more stable consumer brand because of repeat sales, however, these companies aren't being priced at the current FCF, they are being priced assuming they will grow 20%+ for the next 5 years. Any hiccup in growth and there will be a big correction, e.g., CELH recently. Have you looked at what the retail to institutional ownership trends are for these? Retail loves brands they recognize, and they can be very fast to sell on any down news about anything.
@ILoveTinfoilHatsАй бұрын
Aged beautifully 🤣
@MikePierce-o4yАй бұрын
Great Review Thanks!
@schweizererfolgАй бұрын
amazing output you put here on youtube. will you analyze Pfizer stocks for us? Great dividends and valuation at the moment, imo
@theone-tf8dsАй бұрын
DG is poggers
@ionsufana5250Ай бұрын
Let me tell what I understand from your video; you don't like either of 2 stocks presented; can you tell me whzt what other stocks you believe in?
@TimeintheMarketАй бұрын
See my last video for a new portfolio I have with a variety of companies I like. I also share my active portfolio in a link in that video (docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1lm3ZQg_PEmg8N4TZRe1NUgWPxtqH5RB58RJ8UD93FAE/pubhtml?gid=1571600298&single=true )
@mikemadden3967Ай бұрын
Very Lucky on a DG Trade. Bought 5,200 shares 8/29 at $86.32/share. SOLD 8/30 at $87.18. CLOSED 8/30 At $82.97. Like I Said......VERY LUCKY !
@AyjayAlleywayАй бұрын
I always go to dollar general during the week when I need to pick up just a few things here and there during the week.
@TimeintheMarketАй бұрын
Are the prices any good or is it simply convenience?
@aightm8Ай бұрын
Management was already changed
@TimeintheMarketАй бұрын
Didn't work, change again.
@mattanonysaurousrexАй бұрын
The #1 rule in my book is to only own great companies. Dollar General definitely does not pass. They have no brand value. They have no best-in-class product/service. There will always be people who will value the tempting trailing 12-month ratios on businesses like these more than I do, so I don't bother keeping up to date with them, no matter how low they drop. There are just too many other companies worth researching.
@TimeintheMarketАй бұрын
Can't disagree with that. Most of my positions are what I'd consider high quality businesses but if some of these other cash flowing businesses get cheap enough, the stock buyback story becomes attractive with some upside from returning to growth there. Neither of these fit the bill at these prices though.
@kenndngart7382Ай бұрын
DG just got the former CEO back. No need for a new one.
@TimeintheMarketАй бұрын
That's true but the last guy lasted a year so while this guy has more tenure(given that he was CEO from 15-22), if the business doesn't turn around quick, I could see them moving on again quicker than usual. I suppose you could still blame the problems on the last CEO but Todd Vasos has been in there for almost a year now and the business we have today is basically based one built on his decisions.
@mattanonysaurousrexАй бұрын
That's a lot of companies to track! I like the idea of picking a bunch of dividend companies that you don't need to analyze too closely instead of picking an index fund. Personally, I plan on starting a portfolio like this when I get closer to retirement when I'm less comfortable taking the risks I am now. If a big recession hits, I'm going to be out a fair amount, but will have plenty of time to recover before I want to start spending the money anyway.
@TimeintheMarketАй бұрын
It is but I'm pretty familiar with most of the companies and enjoy this aspect of investing as evidenced by this channel. I think you're right, as long as you've got a long enough horizon and stay employed, a recession isn't a huge deal from that perspective. I do think these stocks have the potential to be market beating in the next decade so it's not just a strategy to do less bad during a recession but just a way to invest in some companies I like in a rather passive way.
@SaintMichael82Ай бұрын
they put literal shit in their drinks. F No!
@pgdaszzz73992 ай бұрын
Zaslav must be fired, how could this tard dare to take a billion of salary when the company is losing billion?
@MaxPowerRob2 ай бұрын
Great analysis, thanks!
@TimeintheMarketАй бұрын
Glad you liked it!
@michaelvalentine16932 ай бұрын
This aged like milk….
@mattanonysaurousrex2 ай бұрын
Maybe it's a good value. It's hard to predict how these cable dependent media companies will perform. It's Netflix on a dip, or nothing for me. I can see how the diversity of the parks segment would make Disney attractive though.
@aightm82 ай бұрын
Same sector wide declines as WBD. But 3-4X more expensive. Better brand, and they have the parks etc. But the current PE doesnt make sense to me.
@Andy__A2 ай бұрын
Thanks for the video! How do you calculate market share in %?
@TimeintheMarket2 ай бұрын
Generally you just get those numbers from the earnings calls but companies like Nielsen also do a lot of tracking of various stores but Monster/Celsius will aggregate that data for you on their earnings calls or annual meetings. Here's an example from Monster investors.monsterbevcorp.com/static-files/4d228451-b20f-4452-96cb-99de55fabe85. However off cycle you can often read updates/news reports on Nielsen data because access to that tracking data is not free so unless you pay for it, you really just have to wait for these types of updates.
@jdiaz91902 ай бұрын
What you're missing is Disney has picked a political side, which is far left.
@TimeintheMarket2 ай бұрын
Definitely a fair take, they do need to just focus on quality content over anything else. It's tough to gauge how things of that nature impact their financials though.
@aightm82 ай бұрын
The average person doesn't care. That's a terminally online viewpoint. It only matters in so far as the quality of content has gone down. But the average person doesn't care about their "side"
@Anonymous_Lee192 ай бұрын
14:05 Thanks for the summary, but I believe there is a mistake here. The share conversion is 1-to-1. So, the return should increase if current share price falls (assuming that the merged company's shares trade at $15).
@TimeintheMarket2 ай бұрын
So the 1:1 conversion is at the current stock price so while the return does increase if you buy lower and the stock price steady at lower prices(because more people will convert to cash and that cash becomes a bigger part of your return, you can see that if you play around with the PARA price at F5), there's certainly the risk that stock price will fall and your return if you buy at the prices in the video will be worse and that has turned out to be the case. The people who bought at 11.18 expecting a 15% return are certainly not happy with where it's trading now as their expect return at today's price is down to about 10%. However, if you are buying now, your expected return at today's prices is closer to 20% since that cash becomes a bigger part of the overall pie and is fixed.
@Daniel-ld3zi2 ай бұрын
Not a fan of the dilution. But they seem prepared to do a solid buyback if it drops more. Also don't really have a unique product... Anyone can replicate. $20 then I'll be in.
@ILoveTinfoilHatsАй бұрын
Well we're almost halfway there since this video came out...
@Daniel-ld3ziАй бұрын
@@ILoveTinfoilHats hah! Thanks for reminder
@ai77832 ай бұрын
lucky i didnt buy anything while people were chasing
@sancausx67502 ай бұрын
time to buy🎉
@hhhrobi2 ай бұрын
Good thumb thins time! Thanks for the video
@TimeintheMarket2 ай бұрын
I’m learning!
@mattanonysaurousrex2 ай бұрын
My thesis is fair value for MNST should be closer to Pepsi's. There are too many possible competitors in Energy. Pepsi and Coke have a monopoly because of their distribution channels, the same isn't true for energy drinks. I'd consider CELH if it drops another 20% or if we see accelerated international growth. Competition is still risky, but they are 'first-to-market' in a new segment of energy. Right now, the sentiment is pretty bearish, I don't see much of a reason to jump the gun with earnings so far out.
@TimeintheMarket2 ай бұрын
You’re thinking low 30s for monster then?
@mattanonysaurousrex2 ай бұрын
@@TimeintheMarket Yeah, low 30s would make me consider it. That's low enough that if they don't grow, it won't hurt much, and if they do return to 10% growth, it will see some nice gains. Even then, I'd have to track carefully if their sales come from new consumers or from price hikes. I don't know if or how long they can pass on price increases to the consumer. As always thanks for the content!
@mcribprime65942 ай бұрын
There’s a massive problem with WBD right now, they have effectively cut everything they can and have lost significant trust with lots of creative talent in Hollywood. 11.2 billion depreciation in 1 Quarter is absolutely staggering, and yes they have paid down some debt they are at a point were they can’t really cut anymore and now have to start selling or leasing assets. DC under Gunn maybe a success but he has turned a hell of a lot people off to DC and he had a major negative impact in DC theatrical gross last year which was freaking abysmal. If you started investing in WBD following the merger then I feel sorry for you because it’s been a torrid couple of years. The next 6 months, with further projected loss of advertising and the complete loss of the NBA (most pointless law Sue in history) will require serious questions to be asked about WBD leadership.
@TimeintheMarket2 ай бұрын
Yea I doubt the turnaround if any is coming anytime soon. For the NBA lawsuit, I assume they're just trying to get some money out of the NBA and not sure they actually felt like the lawsuit was going to help them retain the rights.
@mcribprime65942 ай бұрын
@@TimeintheMarket The NBA don’t owe them a penny, the agreement was up hence it went out to tender and WBD for whatever reasons have lost the rights they can’t sue for anything NBA were 100% within their rights to take their company to the best partner fit. I agree I don’t see any change anytime soon, House of the Dragon season 1 was the number watched show in the world and yet WBD dramatically slashed the budget half way through season 2 and it showed. Even the show runner has called that out.
@TimeintheMarket2 ай бұрын
Indeed, I'll never understand why they would want their marquee show to cut back from 10 episodes to 8. Sure, you'll save some money but this world is a staple of your content for the next decade so this is where you want to be investing.
@mattanonysaurousrex2 ай бұрын
I think you hit the nail on the head at the end. They need to get good at something and commit to the investment in it. Otherwise, I feel this is just going to be a slow bleed.
@hansolyoon10742 ай бұрын
Great video. I was initially interested in Wbd before it merged with discovery…. HBO MAX’s potential, DC, and a promising video game studio… But jeezus, a ton of debt (even tho it is fixed rate) and their profit generator is in a perpetual decline (cable tv)
@TimeintheMarket2 ай бұрын
Thanks! Yea the debt is a problem that they're working on but it's not the reason for the failure to be anywhere close to their touted 2023 targets, just poor management, poor DTC growth and a declining industry that's hard to combat.
@OldAssSax2 ай бұрын
Cash flow is not where it needs to be, I got out before earnings and am running away. I'm not worried about goodwill impairment, simply a concern of debt level vs. generating cash to pay it off and I'm not seeing it. Did you note Gunnar mentioning (in a positive light lolz) that the leverage ratio won't be getting any worse in 2024--shaping up to be a classic value trap. Thanks for the video.
@TimeintheMarket2 ай бұрын
Yea the management commentary on the call didn't give me a lot of confidence in the growth path for the next few years. I think the thesis changed here and this could be dead money for quite some time while you wait for legacy media to stabilize and digital to actually start growing. There's a lot of potential with the IP and content generation here but it's just being mismanaged right now.
@hhhrobi2 ай бұрын
You are killing me with these thumbnails! took me like 5 seconds to see what company it is. Really hurts your views and does not make justice to the video quality :(
@TimeintheMarket2 ай бұрын
I don't know how to make good thumbnails :)! What should I be doing, making the stock ticker/company name more obvious?
@hhhrobi2 ай бұрын
@@TimeintheMarket yes. And flames!(joke) Maybe look at how other creators are doing it. See what catches your eye and why. Why is one video attracting your eyes and others aren't?
@mattanonysaurousrex2 ай бұрын
I like it. I wouldn't change it. But I'm probably not representative of the majority.
@juanita-darkАй бұрын
@@TimeintheMarketHere's an example of an eye-catching thumbnail on the same subject: kzbin.info/www/bejne/rIC4eoCvZtaeY68si=al801b9CcAOegV32 I'm here because I was looking for a more detailed vid - which yours is - but that thumbnail attracted me first. You've got good content though, so I don't think the commenter is being obnoxious.
@ai77832 ай бұрын
not investible , debt level are unsustainable due to the purchase of hey dudes
@TimeintheMarket2 ай бұрын
I think they're doing an OK job paying down the heydude debt so far, not a great acquisition but it won't be a killer long long term.
@IamnotJokic2 ай бұрын
How cooked was Buffet in the Yen carry trade? 😂 He liquidated his AAPL holdings to cover.
@theresamorgavi91962 ай бұрын
I bought100 shares of roku at 50 turn around sell call at 60 for 170 premium Sept 20. Hopefully i can repeat selling call of roku at 60 monthly lol will see
@TimeintheMarket2 ай бұрын
That's not a bad deal, a decent call yield if volatility stays high and you can keep getting 3-4% every few months even if you limit upside.
@mattanonysaurousrex2 ай бұрын
People say "don't sell your winners". I say there's no shame in trimming your winners if the price goes up on multiple expansion alone. It's nice to have that cash on hand when the market dips.
@TimeintheMarket2 ай бұрын
Yea sometimes if a position gets overweight, nothing wrong with selling especially if it's been a huge compounder already. I actually ended up selling another ~15% of my apple position around 210 today. Still fully believe in Apple but there's nothing wrong with not having 35% of your individual portfolio be one stock.
@11BDUBS2 ай бұрын
I don’t know if you still follow but SG is ripe trading at @5X next 12 months EBITDA and debt free generating free cash!
@TimeintheMarket2 ай бұрын
I know they exited the US which means the big players here will continue expanding. I'm sort of looking closer at fanduel and draftkings if this market presents any opportunities for either.
@tonymai62532 ай бұрын
Can you analysis AAPL, AMZN?
@TimeintheMarket2 ай бұрын
Just made a video about both!
@mattanonysaurousrex2 ай бұрын
Hey Dude is a terrible brand name from a marketing perspective.
@TimeintheMarket2 ай бұрын
Big time.
@EltiLpАй бұрын
Acquisition was a big mistake in my opinion
@mattanonysaurousrex2 ай бұрын
Have you done any analysis on the airline industry before? I've got an investment in CPA. They have best in class on-time performance, and execution has been good since the pandemic, yet it's trading at a very low multiple. Maybe sentiment is just low on the whole industry with the continued bad news?
@TimeintheMarket2 ай бұрын
Not much, it's a hard business to do consistently well, seems to run in cycles too, but the valuations like you said do get interesting at times. I'll take a look at CPA since I'm not too familiar with the more international airlines.
@mattanonysaurousrex2 ай бұрын
I'm onboard, have owned a small position since the new ceo. Sentiment blows like the wind, but the numbers don't lie. No better time to buy than when sentiment is negative and the results lean positive. My best guess is sentiment will stay negative even if we see a few more quarters of good results and we'll see get some nice buying dips. This is low risk, high reward IMO. Increasingly online global market is perfect for PYPL.
@TimeintheMarket2 ай бұрын
Agree, looks like the market is sending this back into the 50s, might get interesting here.