2 жыл бұрын
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@RTInDepth 6 сағат бұрын
been struggling on understanding this until i came to this video, thanks dude
@DeezohPlay-yu8rc 11 күн бұрын
perfectly explained
@memewolf7719 14 күн бұрын
Thank you this helped. Need more people like you👍
@aastharamudamu7075 16 күн бұрын
You’re just great
@lemuelvincent1165 Ай бұрын
The best and the clearest explanation, man thankiuuuu so much!!!
@mikasaackerman1863 Ай бұрын
çok teşekkürler hocam
@akhilkrishnan.s9021 Ай бұрын
can you please upload a video on wagner whitin algorithm..how its used in excel for lot sizing and other calculations?
@1243mikeb Ай бұрын
Thank you very much! Just what I was looking for. Super helpful!
@GhostofSparta-o8y Ай бұрын
How would you explain "de-seasonalized sales"
@mcanbolat Ай бұрын
It is the expected sales for each month if there was no seasonality.
@ie95_Moh Ай бұрын
Hello, Assalamualaikum Dr. Mustafa, I think there is a mistake in the predessesors of this example. I tried to to draw the network but I cannot because overlapping! You said: Activities D,E their predecessors C, then you come back to C again by saying that activity G also must come after C! Have you tried to draw the network graph, I think there is something unusual😅. The graph will not be consistence.
@mcanbolat Ай бұрын
Salam, this is a bit of complicated graph but there are no logical violations as far as I can see. You can try MS Project to draw a network diagram or a Gantt chart to confirm.
@anderbishi1122 Ай бұрын
Is this sales in amounts and not quantities sold?
@mcanbolat Ай бұрын
It could be either.
@Username-de1gq Ай бұрын
thank you this was helpful
@tstan8121 Ай бұрын
Extremely useful and enlightening. Thank you!
@BdulmajeedShlewi Ай бұрын
so the greater the duration is critical path ?
@mondae747 Ай бұрын
Quick question - in your explanation you said you have calculated the intercept and slope of de-seasonalised data but the calculation was based on the named range "sales" which is the original data set? should it be calculated of the de-seasonalised or the original data set?
@mcanbolat Ай бұрын
Good catch! Thank you. I was not aware of that. I did some analyses before and there was not a significant difference between finding the trend before or after deseasonalizing data in terms of the mean squared error or any other error measure.
@mondae747 Ай бұрын
@@mcanbolat thanks for the reply. I noticed the same. Just wonder whether it would be significant if population was large enough. Also I was playing with Rand() in the formula . When i adjusted (Rand()*(0.05-0.95)+.95) it increased the fit of the forecast. Basically pushed the random error within 95% confidence interval.
@MinesweeperX Ай бұрын
Shoutout bro, thank you so much!!!
@ie95_Moh Ай бұрын
Sir why did you remove the first part video of this topic?!!!
@mcanbolat Ай бұрын
Hi I did not remove anything. What first part?
@ie95_Moh Ай бұрын
@@mcanbolat I mean this video: kzbin.info/www/bejne/fovQg2ScmN5ngdksi=PXL9UKvH9bUfLrqE Is there any mistake on it??
@mcanbolat Ай бұрын
I recently deleted some of my unlisted videos that I use in my lectures, but I may have deleted this one by mistake. I am not sure what video it was though.
@ie95_Moh Ай бұрын
@@mcanbolat Yes sir, it is an important one, I hope you can upload it again. Regarding: what video is that?! Well, it the same as this video's title, but it is PART 1; meaning that you gave some introduction about the topic and theoritically explained it, then in part 2 (which is this video) you illustrated it by a numerical example. So, the first video (part 1) is important sir, because as introduction to the topic
@ie95_Moh Ай бұрын
Ouh yeah I remember now, It is about markov or something like that👌👌
@Hiddenman112 Ай бұрын
Super clear man
@ajithaabalaji8757 Ай бұрын
From where can we get the data set sir?
@mcanbolat Ай бұрын
In the descriptions.
@lincolncreidt4999 2 ай бұрын
Hi, I noticed that some of my SKU forecasts are showing negative values, and I’m unsure where I might have gone wrong. For example, I have 21 months of sales data from January 2023 to September 2024: 35, 56, 81, 102, 34, 202, 174, 38, 166, 101, 19, 70, 43, 46, 30, 15, 32, 19, 28, 21, and 10. When forecasting from October 2024 to December 2025, starting in February 2025, all the forecasted values turn negative. Could you please advise on what I might be doing incorrectly?
@mcanbolat 2 ай бұрын
Hi, they are not incorrect. Because the numbers are close to zero, it can easily go to the negative side especially if there is a negative trend. You can assume them to be zero. You can also try other forecasting methods if there is no seasonality or trend. Moving averages may work.
@renatofarias41 2 ай бұрын
Great vídeo!!! Thanks for sharing your knowledge.
@ie95_Moh 2 ай бұрын
Hi Mustafa, Please make videos about: Forecasting using Monte Carlo simulation. Do not forget to show the MAD and MSE. It will be a nice adding to us besides your videos about the normal forecasting. Thanks. ✋❤
@24.ផនពន្លឺ 2 ай бұрын
I see SKU1...SKU100 . Is it different SKU?
@KingGeshem 2 ай бұрын
Given that there is no way to go through E without both B & C, shouldn't they both be included in all paths through E?
@VanessaKhosa-uf2rm 2 ай бұрын
Thank you for this 🫶
@sajaibrahim2382 3 ай бұрын
STILL SAVIN LIVES IN 2024! MAN I WISH YOU THE BEST!
@mohsinashfaq101 3 ай бұрын
Why not X-lookup function? Jk...
@mcanbolat 3 ай бұрын
Sure. Some Excel versions do not have it yet. Also Index-Match can handle more complex situations involving tables.
@mohsinashfaq101 3 ай бұрын
@@mcanbolat That sure is true, but all of these match functions fail when I use them with a custom function 🥲, idk why
@vishalkeshri2066 3 ай бұрын
❤
@kbythenewwave7429 3 ай бұрын
thx!!!
@AchooUsman 3 ай бұрын
Can you share with us data file
@mcanbolat 3 ай бұрын
The link is in descriptions.
@nnandan7 3 ай бұрын
Hello sir , is this possible to make a long form video about INFORM certification, covering aspect like what to read ,refer, practice to achieve the certification. Also if you will cover application process it will be great help. Thank you as always for your time and efforts
@mcanbolat 3 ай бұрын
I took my CAP certification exam many years ago, unfortunately I don’t know how the exam looks these days. If you know the concepts associated with data analytics, optimization, and simulation, you should not have any issue passing the exam.
@nnandan7 3 ай бұрын
@@mcanbolat Thank you for response..
@abdullahiusman1070 3 ай бұрын
i thought the alphabets i written on the activity arrow and the nodes represents events, but in this tutorial video it is different
@snp5770 3 ай бұрын
Thank you sir
@NoTimeWaste1 3 ай бұрын
Best explanation to the point
@Gladys-y7l 4 ай бұрын
Hello doc thanks this is very helpful, may i ask if the assigned senquencial time period be change to influence the increase or decrease of forecast to attain the wanted increase?
@mcanbolat 4 ай бұрын
If I understood you correctly, that will be the slope of the trendline. The function we are using determines that.
@pinderant 4 ай бұрын
Thank you so much. I was losing my mind, This is incredibly simple and easy to understand
@joserico8939 4 ай бұрын
excellent video... Question: where can I find the video of the implementation for 3 variables? Thank you so much
@brunostonner8549 4 ай бұрын
This looks like a heuristic to balance Master Production Schedule, or am i missing something?
@HarmanjyotDhillon 4 ай бұрын
Brother thank u sooooooooooo much
@austinbright-j3o 5 ай бұрын
I’d like to build the ‘forecast.ETs’ function in Excel manually for sales forecasting so I can control the smoothing constants. I can get close using the holt triple smoothing, but I can never get the exact answer as ‘=forecast.ETs’. Any idea what to do? I won’t get management buy in without proving ETS manually
@mcanbolat 5 ай бұрын
This is what ChatGPT says but I am not sure if it is true: The FORECAST.ETS function in Excel utilizes the Exponential Smoothing (ETS) algorithm, specifically the ETS AAA (Additive Error, Additive Trend, Additive Seasonality) model.
@austinbright-j3o 5 ай бұрын
@@mcanbolat yeah, that’s what I’m trying to implement. But I can’t tie it to the excel function
@mcanbolat 5 ай бұрын
Use the solver to minimize the sum of the absolute differences between Excel’s forecasts and your forecasts by changing the parameters. You may be able to estimate the parameters Excel is using by default. I don’t think Excel is optimizing those per dataset.
@austinbright-j3o 5 ай бұрын
@@mcanbolat yes, I use the solver. I’m still unable to reproduce the exact results of forecast.ets
@cfenech05 5 ай бұрын
This is gold! Thank you :)
@essokalaura 5 ай бұрын
Best way to explain ever. Seriously you just help me for my exams
@EmmanuelJoseph-w2u 5 ай бұрын
so hard to understand for someon who has no idea what the topic is about
@febegarrett3374 5 ай бұрын
Best video on youtube!
@raghavmurali3844 5 ай бұрын
very helpful thank you 😃
@jacklinewanjiru-n4s 5 ай бұрын
And finally I have understood after such a long time,,,thank you so much
@fayezqadir7155 5 ай бұрын
Can u make a video on sales forecsating?
@mohamedyahia3069 6 ай бұрын
great
@RajuDc-ml5st 6 ай бұрын
I Love you brooooo thanks for your help to understand problems ❤❤❤
@Siteplusberries165 6 ай бұрын
what is the critical path