.5 for sac & bunts because you get outs.

Shouldn’t you include the bases created by your teammates if your plate appearance moves them along the bases?

Aren't you completely ignoring every other baserunner? If a sacrifice adds a base (due to ANOTHER baserunner advancing) how is a single with a runner on not worth (at least) an additional base than a single with no one on? Either the other baserunners advancing are included in the number of bases or they're not. But you seem to only include them in sacrifice situations.

Don't most modern stats exclude sacs because they're not really under your control? If you hit behind a good hitter/fast runner you have a lot more sac opportunity than someone who hits after a terrible hitter. I agree that it feels like sacs should be rewarded somewhat because they're sort of intentional (although in TTO baseball do you really do much different to hit a sac fly than you would to just hit for power? Genuine question, I'm not a player). But I think they should probably be worth very little.

Wrong if a player comes to the plate and a baserunner is thrown out ending inning it’s not a plate appearance

Have been using that for years myself! Cheers!

There seems to still be some stuff missing. As mentioned elsewhere, GIDP should count as a minus one, as you've eliminated a base. What about non sacrifice base advancement? Grounding out to the second baseman to advance a runner on second to third isn't a sacrifice, but is a base created. Base running mistakes needs to be also figured in, as getting a double, but being thrown out at third certainly doesn't help your team. What about induced errors? Stealing second and taking third on a throwing error needs to count. I'm sure I am missing some other cases also.

One thing that would add to this statistic would be to consider the bases created by advancing other players. A double advances other players more than a single and steal does. Oh, yes, double plays, as well. I don't think you mentioned that, but that would erase another runner.

good video, only question I have is did you include "productive outs" in bases created? Ie RBI groundout as an example. If not, that would be a good tweak to make. Otherwise, great stuff!

Thomas Boswell introduced a comparable, and more accessible stat in Total Average, in the early '80s. Essentially measuring 'Bases' versus 'Outs'. It was probably better received at that time because base stealing (and running) were a big part of the game ...

I’ve been thinking along these lines for quite a while. I’d love to see this included on baseball-reference. BRry Bonds’ numbers would be stratospheric!

Great video! This has probably been mentioned in one of the 200+ comments already; but, if you're caught stealing following a double, then you've erased more than one base. And the same would apply for a triple and then getting caught attempting to steal home (or perhaps caught at home after tagging up). Those events happen so infrequently, it probably won't affect your calculation significantly; but, I thought I'd throw it out there. Similarly, if you're caught stealing third (after successfully stealing second), then you've erased your hit and successful steal (2 bases).

I've always thought that runs allowed by relief pitchers should be assessed to both reliever and starter. For example, if starter departs with runner on first and reliever allows the run to score, reliever should be charged with .75 run and starter .25 run. Another stat that should get more attention is the % of runners on base that a batter actual drives in.

If you're going to count a sacrifice as a base created (you not reaching base while a teammate advances or advances to score), then you're kind of opening the door to having to count extra bases created for situations like getting a single and your teammate advancing from 1st to 3rd, or 2nd to Home...

Cool stat, but a few things Id like to mention: - Create a stat with Total Bases created / Outs created. This is because Singles>Sac flies/bunts. A single is 1 base and 0 outs, while a sacrifice is 1 base and 1 out. Etc. - Caught stealing should be worth like, -3 outs. I heard that CS is worth -3x the run value of a SB. - I do think this would be much better considering outs created as well, because that considers double plays and weights things better

Cool stat, but a few things Id like to mention: - Create a stat with Total Bases created / Outs created. This is because Singles>Sac flies/bunts. A single is 1 base and 0 outs, while a sacrifice is 1 base and 1 out. Etc. - Caught stealing should be worth like, -3 outs. I heard that CS is worth -3x the run value of a SB. - I do think this would be much better considering outs created as well, because that considers double plays and weights things better

Hey I love the stat, great video!! If you ever decide to expand on it, have you thought about applying weights via base-out states? (Such as how stealing third with 2 out isn’t as valuable as a leadoff walk or single, or how a two-out rbi double is more valuable than a rbi double with no out)

the stat with division should be BC/PA or BC%. the numerator itself should be Bases Created

I have actually in my head been theorizing almost the exact same idea as you for a stat. I strongly disagree with having sac flies/bunts as equal value to a single, for a few different reasons. A) If a player hits a ground ball with a runner on 1st but the defense only goes for the out at 1st instead of 2nd, then that's just considered an out by statistics instead of a sacrifice hit, despite having the exact same outcome. B) Getting a single is clearly a more favorable outcome than getting a sac fly/bunt, as there are fewer outs, and it's possible for runners to advance more than 1 base. C) Sac flies/bunts are dependent on players besides yourself, so your stat is heavily affected by what your teammates do, which makes the stat less informative (like RBIs and Wins). Another couple of things unrelated to that: I kind of like the idea of extra bases taken running being included, but it goes against my last point that teammates' gameplay shouldn't affect the stat, so I don't think it should be included. I'd be interested to see the stat if reaching base on error was included in your favor, as I have always theorized that a faster runner will pressure fielders into errors more often, but I don't know if that's actually supported by any data. As others have said, if possible, being caught trying to steal 3rd should cause you to go -2 instead of -1, but I understand that it would be difficult to implement

For the cs, make sure that it subtracts the total bases created at that plate appearance instead of just a flat 1. So if they get a double then get caught it shout subtracts 2.

If someone hits a grand slam do they get credit for creating bases for all baserunners? I think they should. That’s 10 bases created for the hitter. If a runner is on first and the batter hits the double but the runner scores then the batter should get 4 BC and the runner 2. If the throw goes into home and lets the batter go to third then who gets credit for that base?

A good start. Consider further detailed attribution and/or the “present value of a base created” where time is measured in pitches. That is the difference between a double and a 1b+stl. This gets quite complicated and you can probably go at it from a few different angles, but you should consider it if you haven’t already. If the next hitter deliberately takes the first pitch so his teammate can steal a base then that batter may start in a 0-1 count. If the current better is handicapping himself so that his teammate can be credited with a base created then he deserves some sort of attribution. Perhaps he’s better at hitting while behind in the count. also, you aren’t considering bat control type plays. Say a runner on second with 0 out and the righty at the plate grounds into a fielder choice behind the runner to the 2nd basemen. put out 4-3. This essentially serves as a sac bunt with the added chance that the hitter finds the hole between 3 and 4 but it goes into the scorebook as an AB and PA but no credit for the base created. I’m not saying I have the answers. The attribution is very complicated.

Top 10 1B of 2024 coming up next.

Based and creative

if you are going to count sac flies and such, why not count all the bases advanced by the existing baserunners as a result of the PA? A guy scoring from second on a long single should add two to the total, giving you three bases created. A grand slam gives you 10 bases created! OTOH, the base created by a sac fly costs an out and is way less valuable than a single or even a walk.

I like the idea of hitting into a double play as being a -2 on the numerator. Future videos should explore that and also how this start applies historically. Does it quantify something that baseball guys all "knew" but the stats didn't show?

wBC+ has a really nice ring to it

So, hitting into a double play drops one from the numerator while adding one to the denominator?

only thing that came up for me a few times was single + stolen base feels less valuable than a double because of the time the batter actually spends at first. But batters losing a whole base for getting caught stealing feels way harsher than any leeway they gain from it so I wouldn't advocate changing it. Thank!!! Fun video

I don’t understand why any stat uses ABs over PAs, why on earth would we ever want to ignore a walk??

Should you add advancing runners to your stat too? Starting with a runner on first an end result of runners on first and second or me out and the runner on second are weighted the same. Seems like it should either count the former as higher or the latter as lower.

Great content from a small channel, keep it up! You can never have too many quality baseball videos

Did you actually draw/animate this yourself?

Have you considered using outs as the denominator instead? It would change the meaning a bit, but I think that it's still fundamentallly measuring the same skillset of "how well does this player move themselves around the bases?", just asking "how many good things per bad thing" instead of "how many good things per appearance". Then you fix your problem of SF = 1B and 2B + CS = 1B

The reason Bobby Witt is closer to Soto and not Ohtani and Judge is solely because of his Caught Stealings lol. He brings those down this stat would shoot way up

Am I correct in assuming you’re leaving RBIs or runners advanced out of the stat? As I think about it that’s a bit easier because then you wouldn’t have to dig into each PA to see who if anyone was on base ahead of the hitter and whether the runner scored or got stopped at third or got out on a fielder’s choice.

I find this to be a highly flawed concept Counting a one out sacrifice bunt that moves a runner from second to third (as an example) is a big negative. Your system awards a positive 1.

how is this different from wOBA? follow up question: what is wOBA?

I would say use a basic stat, and an advanced stat that would deduct value if caught stealing, along with other deductions like picked off, double plays, baserunning errors etc. Other additions to value could be extra base taken, fielders choice etc. Love the video! Looking forward to many more

I love it. You have a really good functional understanding of what it means to be a valuable hitter. You could easily argue those are the 10 best hitters in baseball right now.

This should be paired with an Outs created, including grounding into dps, baserunning errors, etc

For caught stealings i think you need to account for which base it is. So if you get caught trying for third, the rinner still has net 1 bases for being on second. A caught stealing should always net 0 bases if I'm following your logic correctly

I kind of don't understand how Ohtani with more runs, doubles, way more triples, 59 SB and only 4 CS (compared to Judge's 10 SB) be that far behind Judge.

I've been following Sabermetrics since reading Bill James' book in 1988. And I think this is BRILLIANT!

this is great! I've been wanting to make a stat just like this! Now, I'm sure you also thought about doing a "bases prevented" stat for fielding...

I’ve long thought there should be a stat along these lines, sort of a superior total bases. I’m curious if you feel that this stat gives any further predictive power than eg OPS, since I know one reason most people don’t care to improve on it is that they feel it’s good enough.

Rickie would be the goat then.

yeah, i've been calculating OPS+SB for my own casual use for about a year and a half now - a single and a stolen base equals 2 Bases, a single and an out equals... an out, and no Bases. This seems right up that alley, but better. However, I think keeping the denominator the same as OPS (lol!) is important just for comparative purposes.

"Bases and outs ad nauseum" by Brandon Heipp in The Hardball Times 2008

Is hitting into a fielders choice essentially a net zero? The hitter has created one base for themselves but caused another base to be taken from the runner that got out.