This is not a handicapping video so I am not sure what you meant when you said everyone is always all over the favorites. This is a horse racing news video recapping the G1 Champagne, G1 Breeders'' Cup Juvenile, and G1 American Pharoah, and an early preview of the BC Juvenile. I will post my BC Juvenile handicapping video after post positions are drawn later this month.

Final times can be very important. It depends on many factors. Every race is a new puzzle. In this situation, we are dealing with lightly raced 2-year-olds, and they develop at different times. Some are fast, early developing sprinters, and others get faster later on as they mature and distances increase. Right now, East Avenue is the fastest horse at 1 1/16 miles. That does not mean that he will win the BC Juvenile, but he ran the fastest prep race at the distance last time and should make his presence felt from the outset.

She probably should have won this race. Uncomfortable closing trips like that are hard to overcome.

It looks like there might be more than one grey horse in the BC Classic this year. Possible grey starters: Arthur's Ride, Next, Tapit Trice.

@@JarrodHorak yes sir your right these 3 horses I will bet on them just for the win probably 50 to win each hehehe

She Feels Pretty was fantastic. It looks like blinkers made a big difference. I agree with you. Looking forward to her next stakes start.

Candala is 7-1 at this stage. Definitely a fair price. Soprano, the other overseas runner, is taking quite a bit of early action.

Cant get stuck on Geroux every race,, escpecially when theres other top jockeys in the race.

@@italianwaterice9594 She Feels Pretty was very impressive today.

@@JarrodHorak bet way down too,,, surprised so low

​@@italianwaterice9594best horse wins, jockeys are not the deciding factor for me.

His high cruising speed and the ability to win the race on the far turn is the key to his success. If he gets into a smooth early-pressing rhythm from an outer post and the pace is moderate, he is tough.

It makes sense that he is stronger now. That is usually the case with the 3-year-olds late in the season. He is still fresh and is one of several top contenders coming up to the race in good order.

@@JarrodHorak right & Fierceness seemed to run better on longer layoffs ! This could be a Big One !

@@JarrodHorak Fierceness should win but at the worst I guess 2nd Place if another horse gets him down the stretch.....

@@willmorrisusa Fierceness is a logical win contender but you could say the same of a few other horses. When you get to a high class level like this with classy Grade 1 winners, multiple outcomes are possible depending on trips, race flow, track bias, gate breaks, post positions, and rider decisions.

@@willmorrisusa He has run well with time between starts, but he also flopped twice when running fresh (Champagne, Holy Bull). He should be fine if he draws a middle to outer post, gets a clean start, and the fractions are moderate. He needs to be able to get outside and use his high cruising speed.

Fierceness might end up being the Classic favorite. He seems to be holding his form based on his recent morning activity. Looks like a wide open, competitive race this year.

@@JarrodHorak yeah- I wish it was at Saratoga though ! Isn't Fierceness 3 for 3 there ?

@@willmorrisusa He does love Saratoga, but he did win the BC Juvenile at Santa Anita and the Florida Derby at Gulfstream, so he can run quality races at other venues. Pletcher believes he will handle Del Mar but you never know until they do it,

@@JarrodHorak exactly ! I think we read the same article where it was said that Del Mar is a pretty fast track & Fierceness should be okay there ! We'll see !

@@willmorrisusa Yeah, it must have been that DRF article interviewing Pletcher.

Thanks for sharing your Classic thoughts. Derma Sotogake has the back class to complete and he will be a big price. Sierra Leone should be finishing and City of Troy probably has the most raw ability in the field. Senor Buscador is a quality late runner on his best day.

Senior bus schedule is out with a bad ankle

Fierceness

@@CharlesTurk-d8o I saw that Subsanador was out with an ankle issue. It has been reported as a minor issue (no surgery) and he is expected to return next spring.

That is a blast from the past. I was a fan of Little Bold John!

That is crazy. In the Chillingworth Stakes at Santa Anita on Saturday, Sweet Azteca ran last of 4 as the overwhelming favorite. No show wagering, but the runner-up paid $74 to place.

@@JarrodHorak i saw that., Sweet Azteca looked like a,sure winner in program

@@italianwaterice9594 That was strange. Her connections think the excessive heat may have caused her to run poorly. They might push on to the Breeders' Cup if she trains well in the coming weeks.

Bridge Jumper is what they're Called especially when they LOSE CAUSING HUGE RARE PAYOUTS WPS

​@@italianwaterice9594something happened to him what a shame kills my odds in Breeders Cup would've been 6/5 now the cat's outta the bag😮😢

Thanks. I had some nice results especially at Keeneland. Have some momentum as we get closer to the Breeders' Cup.

These quick pick videos sharpen my speed. I am almost ready for the Breeders' Cup.

@@JarrodHorak yes,, last year you got into a speed duel with Arabian Knight, youll make amends, blinkers on

@@italianwaterice9594 On the plus side, Arabian Knight has retired so I am lone speed now. I just need a clean break.

@@JarrodHorak lookin at Mo Plex.... the horses who losf to him came back to win stakes... 8th race belmont

Nice exacta finish. Top choices ran well in all three stakes at Keeneland today. 5 more big stakes at Keeneland on Saturday.

Good luck with your Breeders' Futurity wagers.

Forever Young is a talented 3-year-old. He was solid in his winning return in Japan earlier this week and looks ready to deliver another quality effort in the BC Classic.

When you are dealing with lightly raced 2-year-olds, it is tough to know exactly which ones will improve as distances increase. Some promising fillies in this race and hopefully we get a Breeders' Cup starter or two.

@@JarrodHorak agreed.

I have other big Grade 1 videos planned for Oct. 5. Gonna start posting them later today.

Ushba Tesoro and Derma Sotogake ran last Wednesday. They finished 2nd and 5th and both are still targeting the Classic. Forever Young was solid in the Japan Dirt Classic. I liked his tactical trip and this was a very useful prep for the BC Classic.

I absolutely agree! He intimidated the other horses if he was on the lead. BIG heart, and I definitely had him running in-the-money for BC Classic, if not winning it.

It is a shame that Dornoch retired. We rarely get to see the top 3-year-olds advance to their 4-year-old seasons.

@@JarrodHorak The BC Classic was going to be Dornoch's last race anyway, but it would have been nice to see him race one more time. Nowadays, the top male horses RARELY race past 3-years-old, unless they are geldings of course. The BIG money is in the breeding shed.

@@JarrodHorak The BC Classic was going to be Dornoch's last race anyway, but it would have been nice to see him race one more time. The top male horses RARELY race past 3-years-old anymore, unless of course they are geldings. The BIG money is in the breeding shed.

City of Troy is and interesting shipper this year. His presence makes the Classic an even stronger race.

Newgate should have gotten plenty out of his needed California Crown return. He will be a big price in the Classic.

@@JarrodHorak I agree. And, I've always been a fan of Ushba Tesoro, I can't abandon him now.

@@jameschan9634 I don't blame you. Stick with him and you might be rewarded.

City of Troy would not even have to be a superstar to be very competitive in the 2024 BC Classic. The Handicap Division and 3-Year-Old Division in the US have both been a bit of a mess this year. No clear leaders in either division and the timing might be right for an overseas Classic winner.

Just for the record, the "non-American" winners of the BC Classic are Black Tie Affair (Irish-bred) in 1991, Arcangues (French) in 1993, Invasor (Argentina-bred) in 2006, Ravens Pass (English-trained) in 2008, and Awesome Again (Canadian-bred) in 1998.

@@JarrodHorak One man's "mess" is another man's "competitive divisions". The U.S. has a plethora of excellent racehorses this year, and THAT'S why there has not been ONE horse who has proven himself to be the best. As for the people who consider the Beyer speed figures as "gospel", I've NEVER been a fan or follower of the Beyer speed figures. The formula is flawed, and I rarely, if ever, consult or care about the Beyer numbers.

@@TheProfessorOfLife The 3-year-old division and handicap division have both been competitive because there are no superstars this year. That is fine because many of the races in those divisions are good betting races. As for figures, everyone has their own favorite speed ratings and their own handicapping methods, and if it is working, keep on doing it. The Beyer numbers are based on the final time and they use par times, past races by the competitors, and other races run that day, and some figures are tough to come up with and human error is possible. I lean on pace, speed, and performance ratings.

@@TheProfessorOfLife I had Black Tie Affair in 1991. He got out there and stole the Classic that year.

Dornoch was retired last week so he is out of the Classic. Fierceness and Sierra Leone are getting faster and both are logical contenders. I am anxious to see what Forever Young does in his final Classic prep later this week.

@@JarrodHorak:: They said he was unlucky in the Derby but I didn't see it so don't know myself, but the Japanese people really fancy him for the Classic, they think this is their year to win as Aiden is also hopeful Classic No26 will bring him his first. If COT is OK on dirt he must have a chance IF he's as good as Aiden says. Honestly he showed impressive form in his 2yr old campaign BUT his 3yr old campaign hasn't been as impressive & I hope he's NOT being OVERHYPED because I don't see any high rated horses he's beaten. His Derby was smart but what else friend ?? I'm just hoping the US horses he faces aren't as good as they say.

@@andrewblackie7170 Forever Young had some stretch trouble when Sierra Leone started lugging in, but the Kentucky Derby is always a rough race with 20-horses. Sierra Leone would have won the Derby if he maintained a straight course. Forever Young must be considered a Classic contender if he has gotten faster. Ushba Tesoro is probably a Classic player as well. City of Troy looks the part and is probably the horse to beat if he handles dirt as good as he handles turf. If I was coming in from overseas, I would not be afraid of any US horses this year. We just do not have any standouts in the Classic division this year.

I mentioned that Dornoch was retired to Spendthrift Farm in this video, and I provided a link to the article I referenced in the description. Yet another one retired too soon.

@@JarrodHorak Dornoch has had chronic bone-bruising problems for awhile now. It caught up with him in the Travers, when he finished a very uninspired 4th. Very sad to see him end his career that way. He was a TOUGH and INTIMIDATING horse, and I had him finishing in-the-money in the BC Classic.

@@TheProfessorOfLife Dornoch was a tough competitor when he was healthy. Too bad we will not get to see him in the BC Classic.

Subsandor can run all day,, Muth will run and win

It is still too far out to know the exact field. I will keep doing these update videos each week and we will have a much clearer picture of the field in the coming weeks. According to trainer Phil D'Amato, Stronghold will run in the BC Dirt Mile. Richard Mandella stated that the BC Classic is probably next for Subsanador. "That's the plan," Mandella said of going in the 1 1/4-mile Classic. Mixto and Pyrenees are targeting the Classic. We will learn more about Forever Young's status after he runs on Wednesday. It seems like Next's connections are leaning toward the Turf but there is plenty of time to make that decision.

At least you mentioned the possible b.c.classic winner. Derma sotogake.

@@CarlCarlson-k5p Derma Sotogake has been very disappointing this year. I picked him in the Saudi Cup and Dubai World Cup, and he just has not been the same horse since the 2023 BC Classic. Cannot believe he has not won a race since March 2023 (UAE Derby).

@JarrodHorak just wanted to see him close 2 the lead in prep. Did that. All our races n preps all big races all of them won near lead. He's better on dirt as said b4 k.d. and jock said it again after this last prep. He ran faster than ushba Tesoro same day as u mentioned as a 3yrold. U.t. older horse. Now will be overlooked against the two other Japanese horses. He's now 4yr old. Jock hesitate to show speed in k.d. cause same jock went blister pace yr b4 in k.d. with a japan horse. Off 6month layoff with no prep races finished 2nd to older horse white abbario coming off one of the fastest Whitney ever. He's now 4 Except 4 the travers 111buyer all USA races run about 100 102 slow Other horses have many ifs and I can go over all of them. For example fierceness if runs 67 buyer or 111. City of troy if takes 2 dirt. Remember medelsen. 4everyoung if gets 10 points better and now likes kick back. If all other horses get better figure wise. On n on n on. Gd. Luck. Another horse that has always gotten better figure wise like gunrunner is sierra leone but is a closer. And a 3yr old Derma is 4now. I didnot pk him in k.d. so I'm not bias.

I agree. City of Troy is the top runner in Europe. He could easily win the BC Classic if he handles dirt.

The BC Classic is littered with the "Best horses in Europe" who shipped over to the USA and LOST, and many times really didn't show up for the race.

@@TheProfessorOfLife Multiple overseas runners have disappointed on dirt, but every year is a new handicapping puzzle. I have no idea if an overseas runner will win this year, but I am definitely keeping an open mind due to the lack of handicap division/3-year-old stars in the US.

It is possible that a shipper from Japan will win the BC Classic. We will see if Forever Young has improved when he runs in Japan next week. He spiked a fever recently but is still supposed to run Wednesday in the Japan Dirt Classic. City of Troy is taking a similar training path as Giant's Causeway. That one trained at Southwell before shipping to Churchill and missing by a neck in the BC Classic in 2000 for Aidan O'Brien.

@@JarrodHorak I really like Forever Young, assuming he's 100% healthy. He showed a LOT of guts in the Kentucky Derby, and would have won that race going away if not for the assault and battery he got from Sierra Leone. Plus his pedigree is incredible!

@@TheProfessorOfLife Forever Young will meet fellow 3-year-old Ramjet in the Japan Dirt Classic on Wednesday. Forever Young came down with a fever during his workout on Sept. 25, and his trainer said he would work again on Sept. 29 prior to his next scheduled start on Oct. 2. Ramjet should give him a real challenge. He has won four straight dating back to December 2023.

@@JarrodHorak That race should be a great warmup for Forever Young, but the fever could be a problem, depending on what caused the fever. Look what happened to Muth.

@@TheProfessorOfLife They said the fever was caused by the heat. It was over 90 degrees when he worked. I agree that it should be a nice warmup race for him. They just need to get a prep in him and that should set him up for the BC Classic.

Thanks for watching. Crupi is a consistent closer and he seems to be getting better. Hopefully he runs another quality race on Saturday and moves on to the Breeders' Cup in November.

His JCGC was very disappointing. He sat a perfect trip behind the pace but failed to kick in the lane.

yea let’s see who won the woodward huh?

you just don’t know what he’s been through

@@graxhimself It was nice to see Tapit Trice bounce back and win the Woodward. He was my Derby horse last year and I have picked him on top more than once. He likes a wet track and was determined to catch Skippylongstocking today.

@@JarrodHorak yep, i actually own the horse and was at the derby with him and he hasn’t had the best history with his foot but it seems like he’s back

City of Troy is very talented and is a major contender if he handles the dirt oval at Del Mar. Fierceness probably won't have everything his own way in a deep BC field. We will find out if Forever Young has progressed since the spring when he preps for the BC Classic in October.

@@JarrodHorak Well said Sir !!!!!!!!

Looking forward to all of these Breeders' Cup prep races later this weekend and next.

My top pick Stronghold finished a solid 2nd after racing wide from the outside post. Seize the Grey controlled the pace and turned away my top choice in a nice winning effort.

​@@JarrodHorakhe trolls you after the race. lol... hes envious of your streak

@@italianwaterice9594 The trolls always show up when I don't have the winner, but it is crickets when I hit the races. Haters gonna hate.

@@JarrodHorak youre forced to defend a 2nd place finish from outside post against the Preakness winner and a slow pace ..lol

@@italianwaterice9594 I thought Stronghold did the best he could considering the post, trip, and pace dynamics. A mile and an eighth is probably as far as he wants to go. I would like to see him cut back in distance and try the BC Dirt Mile next.

They made Thorpedo Anna work for it today. I have always liked Tarifa. She did her best and ended up a solid third.

wheres Geroux?

@@italianwaterice9594 I was surprised that Geroux did not have Dragoon Guard closer to the early pace, especially when they went 49 and change for the half.

@@JarrodHorak yes. he was out of his element in Philly

@@italianwaterice9594 Parx can be a tricky track to handle. Even Thorpedo Anna was not at her best and her class pulled her through. Track was playing on the slow side today.

Unmatched Widsom could easily rebound in this spot. It is possible that you might get a fair price on a Prat/Brown runner. Good luck.

@@JarrodHorak if it wasnt for the price, My pick to win would be Dragoon Gaurd, if he was 3-1 instead of 9-5 id take him on top. he handled stronghold easily in indiana derby. It was a toss up for me 7 or 8 to win this. looking at that 99 beyer the 8 got in the curlin with the price. But also looking at that nice bullet work(1/61) second back of dragoon, looks like brad cox has him ready.

@@markciessau7192 Dragoon Guard has been getting easy leads through moderate fractions and I am not sure that will happen in the PA Derby. That's why I took Stronghold to turn the tables. I was just checking Thorpedo Anna's double prices into the PA Derby and Unmatched Wisdom is the second lowest behind Dragoon Guard.

We will just have to see how the race plays out. It is possible that the outside post will lead to a wide trip,. It is also possible that he is wide early and drops in and works out a decent trip,

It is possible that Stronghold is wide throughout from the outside post. He could also end up wide early and ease his way in, depending on the race shape and tactics of other riders. Dragoon Guard might have to alter his front running style if others are intent on the lead. It is possible that he rates kindly but I would not want to take a short price to find out. Interesting race and I would not be surprised if we saw an upset.

Unmatched Wisdom might offer some wagering value in this spot but I would not be surprised if he was bet to half his morning line due to his connections and overall record. I can see him running a quality race here.