7 min: this 'Catholic' denies the entire message of the New Testament according to Saint Augustine: that the 8 prohibitions among the 10 commandments constitute the 'letter' of the law, which is essentially reducible to the 2 positive commands: to love God and eachother (in that order)...
@bubbaoj6 ай бұрын
If you say so Dave... 😂
@mills81028 ай бұрын
I'm seeing the importance of have good feedbacks. I wonder if the participants are given some basic template on what should be included in their journal or it is mostly free form. Maybe a combination of the two?
@2godbeinfiniteglory8 ай бұрын
I'm based in sub-Saharan Africa. Would definitely love to be a student of cynefin, its a great body of work and i see tremendous value in your tools for navigating life. I hope for accessibility in time so i can learn thoroughly. Thank you Mr Dave and company, your contributions to knowledge are invaluable.
@thecynefincompany8 ай бұрын
Thank you @2godbeinfiniteglory
@matsg25968 ай бұрын
Really great video with explanation of liminality and dynamics!
@thecynefincompany8 ай бұрын
Glad it helped!
@jimallen81869 ай бұрын
Decision making is always done with partial data.
@jimallen81869 ай бұрын
In looking for increased resiliency in security, consider safety is like security. Look a bit at Safety Differently? Note Todd Conklin, associate of Sidney Dekker, writes than some languages do not have a word for safety. There is a great medium article by Ron Butcher Rethinking Safety an Illusory and Context-Dependent Construct. Is security a similar illusory construct?
@jimallen81869 ай бұрын
Remember Boyd here in relativity. If we had perfect efficiency perfect speed, we’d need no security as our OODA would always beat the others. We don’t have this, so we need security. But security while cutting against their efficiency also cuts against ours. There is a balance point. Too much security does make us unable to function. You want enough to inhibit an adversary to the point that the adversary is slower than you. It is relative. We still want to reduce fog of war for ourselves though not reduce fog for others in so doing. Relative. Aside, I think we can all recognize you can always increase security but never be secure. Unfortunately the moment too much security makes you non-functional, increasing security makes you less secure. Inability to function reduces security. It also reduces safety.
@jimallen81869 ай бұрын
“I try to have an idea of the last mile…” “A lot more conscious rigor than we’re used to to navigate ourselves back” see Children of the Magenta. Both literally and figuratively.
@jimallen81869 ай бұрын
Take the industrialized food production a step further. It is more than bad for ecology, it is also poison for the consumer. Does this analogy extend further? What would Jonathan Haidt of the Coddling of the American Mind say? The same Jon campaigning against social media due to the harms to children.
@jimallen81869 ай бұрын
The talk of commercial fishing and the race takes me back to Jared Diamond in Collapse with his tragedy of commons discussions.
@jimallen81869 ай бұрын
What did the person cutting the last tree on Easter Island think?
@jimallen81869 ай бұрын
Our society is set up to reward those who can take big risks gets back to Lewis’ Premonition. And his Fifth Risk. Here we should note those who prevent get little credit while those who rush to fix despite perhaps having caused or allowed to happen are heroes. This takes me to asking about which is greater sin, committing or allowing to happen? If you permit via inaction, are you not guilty too? But you’re not in our society. Incentives and socialization of costs and risks with privatization of gains and opportunities. Externalities.
@jimallen81869 ай бұрын
“Stochastic terrorism,” thanks ‘Good 2 Geek’ via Daily Kos.
@jimallen81869 ай бұрын
Believe the handle is G2Geek, and believe one of the blogs under G2Geek is credited with coining the term.
@jimallen81869 ай бұрын
Thought here: look at where blame falls in safety incidents. Blade of the spear not usually handle of the spear (Dekker, Conklin). Yet where is the real control? Same same lone wolves and violent actors versus most mouth pieces. When do handles see justice? How?
@jimallen81869 ай бұрын
Remember also, winning is serial. To win, you only need success in one attempt at each time. To avoid losing, however, is parallel. To avoid losing, you must defeat all attempts. Consider also Rupert Smith Utility of Force discussing War Amongst the People distinct from Industrial War. Consider Sinek’s Infinite Game. Note Russia is in a finite fight while Ukraine is in an infinite one. This also brings up the importance of Fabius. Note George Washington and Ho Chi Minh were Fabian. As was the Mujihadeen, is the Taliban. Avoid decisive battle. Corbett may have something to add. Boyd would.
@jimallen81869 ай бұрын
Speaking of “real world” and “electronic world,” I’d suggest information should be a separate domain from electromagnetic. Currently they’re both lumped together. I’d also suggest cyber is also distinct from information. Information is aimed at human minds. It may be non-physical yet it still has physical world implication. Cyber is truly a construct yet it too has physical implication - see Stuxnet and Iranian centrifuges. Yet cyber is aimed at machines not humans. Distinction. EM can be used to convey information, can be used to convey cyber, alternately it can be used for its own completely different thing. An EM pulse is neither information nor cyber though it can affect both. Radar may be seen as informational though really it isn’t aimed at minds, it is instead about assisting kill chains. Same for IR which is more EM, same though flip side for jamming. And all EM is physically real not social construct. Disinformation, propaganda, psyops really need to be viewed distinctly from “electronic world.” In the sense of this discussion, EM is merely the medium just as air a medium through which light and radio may be traveling and water is a medium for sound. Though we do have separate air and maritime domains with completely different concerns. Note also we should be careful with the word ‘surface.’ Targeting on land is different than water, we’ve recently been using surface as a generalized term including both, we shouldn’t. We shouldn’t have air-to-surface checks, we should have air-to-ground as distinct from air-to-water. There is no singular surface domain. There is land, and there is maritime, but maritime is 3D above and below surface inclusive.
@jimallen81869 ай бұрын
RE concern we’re abandoning the scientific method; thought that didn’t work in complexity? Only for in complication.
@jimallen81869 ай бұрын
Falsifiability good, repeatability not so much. Variable isolation also not so much. Lack of cause effect and ability to analyze.
@jimallen81869 ай бұрын
Look at Michael Lewis’ The Premonition paying particular attention to the Santa Barbara stories and the Fort Dix Flu stories. Explain how scientific method works here. If one measure alone be insufficient, how can you variable isolate to figure it out? Believe The Atlantic had an article regarding pandemic death spiral and serial attempts of solutions at this point. The Atlantics Deadly Myth that Human Error Causes Car Crashes also plays. As does Wired’s Inferno of the [american] west.
@jimallen81869 ай бұрын
If you cannot accept machine based knowledge fed back in, by what right can you accept human based knowledge fed back in? If feeding back outputs into inputs becomes unstable, isn’t that true of any fed back outputs? If it be false of human outputs becoming inputs, what is unique in AI? A feedback is a feedback no matter what it feeds back. Humans have come up with some weird stuff. Yet we give humans a pass?
@jimallen81869 ай бұрын
“We’re trying to determine accountability… who will be blamed for when something goes wrong.” Ask Sidney Dekker, that’s not accountability. Avoid blame and the second victim. Accountability is providing your account. Regarding if AI suggestions don’t make sense, do officials have power to go against? What do they do if hired consultants make suggestions that don’t make sense?
@JTXRP10 ай бұрын
2:57 Energy Gradiants
@olafhermans10 ай бұрын
fantastic summary, Dave. Thank you
@srinivasprs11 ай бұрын
Interesting framework....will explore more and add it to my Business Continuity career. Thank you for sharing.
@uncletrashero Жыл бұрын
what this looks like to me is basically creating a physics ruleset that acts like a programming language. everything here about constraints and such is directly out of programming.
@lepsze Жыл бұрын
Thanks for this short summary. Interesting
@Kolmir Жыл бұрын
Beautiful... Thank you! I learned so much from your conversation :)
@learningthroughdoing1641 Жыл бұрын
Great story Dave. Hat off to you and the team for what you have explored and learned.
@zeljkasotra5572 Жыл бұрын
Thank you Dave. Good to understand the "forlopp" of your hinking. I imagine you love beautiful words. Forlopp is one of my favorites. It was used in PLEX programming to associate the instances in relating processes within an AXE. Forlopp = Sequence of related events.
@LD-wf2yt Жыл бұрын
I have two suggestions for enhancing the Cynefin Framework. 1. There is a difference between "solving a problem" and "applying 'C'uriosity to disolve a problem". IOW, the mindset or environment we are in when using the Framework seems to me to be an important factor. 2. Disorder is a group's mental state, or 'C'onfusion. Even more importantly, at the individual or 'C'ommunication level, we need to recognise two other states: Disconnect and Unbalance. Disconnect(ed) in a sense that I am not acting as myself and I am not able to improve the situation. Unbalance(d) means that I am doing too much of some things and not enough of other things and, unknowingly, I am allowing 'C'onstraints to sabotage me in the future. Perhaps, we also need to be clear about, when addressing any issue, that we need to identify/address "the population", which is another word for a system. Only then will our assessment be felt as empathy, will make us 'C'onscious of the whole (the well-being) and allow us to move out of "Disorder".
@brtrx76 Жыл бұрын
Curious about the word you discuss about 30mins in - that means something like homesickness for a place that no longer exists or that might never have been. I couldn’t make it out. What word is that?
@Josh-Parkhill Жыл бұрын
Damn this is pretty money. Listing off a syllabus of of concepts, like Eminem’s Rap God. Would love to hear some basic principles on determining scope for constraints.
@todaguilar2004 Жыл бұрын
😆 *Promo SM*
@cihangirdenizozdemir4047 Жыл бұрын
In the government example - why do you put many groups of 3 people to understand the things to improve, but not ask everybody - this should be more democratic? // actually the same could be done in a company
@cihangirdenizozdemir4047 Жыл бұрын
In the first part you criticize "purpose" statements and later remember the 4 causes of Aristotle... (one of them is purpose), does that make sense?
@Rudolfreindeer-vg9zc Жыл бұрын
is the sound a problem only for me?
@henrikmartensson2044 Жыл бұрын
Though I agree with most of the things said, I strongly disagree with the "Waterfall has value" idea. Waterfall is a degraded version of the methodology developed at the SAGE project in 1953-1956. Benington, who published the original waterfall paper in 1956, later said that he was misunderstood, and that he had left out important things that the SAGE project did, for example prototyping. He called Waterfall "disastrous". Winston Royce, in 1970, also protested against waterfall. He is often mistakenly regarded as the creator of waterfall, but his paper is really about an iterative method, with prototyping. In 1994, the US Department of Defence expressly forbid their subcontractors to use Waterfall, because of the disastrous results. From a queuing theory point of view, Waterfall maximizes the internal build-up of Work-In-Process, which maximizes project lead time, risk, and cost. There is great value to be found in traditional, heavyweight methods, like CPM, Critical Chain, the Spiral Method, RAD, and so on, but Waterfall has none of the desirable properties of those methods. So why Waterfall?
@henrikmartensson204411 ай бұрын
@@andropovstyle69 Snowden misses one important thing when he talks about Waterfall, the effects of large sequential batch transfers on lead time, and the subsequent effect on economics. Some time ago, I read a pro Waterfall article that had an example of how to plan a small project. I wrote a blog post were I did two remakes of the planning, one with 90's style heavyweight methodology planning, and one with an Agile approach. Both the heavyweight method and Agile beat Waterfall by a lot. Whether heawyweight/Critical Path planning or Agile works best is a different matter. That depends on circumstances, but Waterfall looses every time. Here is the link. You will find the comparison towards the end of a way too long article: kallokain.blogspot.com/2023/09/waterfall-dark-age-of-software.html
@TheBlackClockOfTime Жыл бұрын
Do you see LLMs as a threat to Sense Maker?
@erikbroheden1112 Жыл бұрын
Very interested in the last 3+1 visualization of the framework.
@RickDelmonico Жыл бұрын
In networks, things that are ordered have strongly connected nodes with harmonic regularity and things that are complex have lavers of influence beyond the observable layers.
@terrypratt9722 Жыл бұрын
😱 "Promosm"
@saifulakhmarshariff3985 Жыл бұрын
Easily understood! Great examples and insights.
@saammisty Жыл бұрын
The second part: RE-EMERGENCE: Complexity Yarns with Indigenous Thinkers Series Yarn #2 👉kzbin.info/www/bejne/j5y4g3SYp5momKs The second part: RE-EMERGENCE: Complexity Yarns with Indigenous Thinkers Series Yarn #3 👉kzbin.info/www/bejne/nJ-vpXmrjtiqd80 The third part: RE-EMERGENCE: Complexity Yarns with Indigenous Thinkers Series Yarn #4 👉kzbin.info/www/bejne/kHq0moFue76VjcU
@learningthroughdoing1641 Жыл бұрын
Great conversation that somehow I missed...love listening to you talk in this way Dave...give us more of it please because it's really accessible to everyone who is not big into (your) theory, as important as praxis is
@guybutler4670 Жыл бұрын
Just brilliant
@brunolopesmello1986 Жыл бұрын
This is, from an organisational design point of view, poetically beautiful...
@internationalreach Жыл бұрын
Would love to learn more about mapping constraints
@F--B Жыл бұрын
The speakers' political commitments give a lie to all the talk about the importance of context, viewpoint diversity, etc. You'll note that Dave's go-to example of "extremism" is populism - i.e. right wing extremism. For him, viewpoint diversity is all well and good, as long as it doesn't include 'right wing' ideas. Complexity goes out the window when it comes to politically emotive subjects like Trump or Brexit. This is a *huge* blind spot.
@thomassumrall6765 Жыл бұрын
I appreciate this comment. It seems to give us a good example of the exact issue to which you are pointing. It's an opportunity to bring out part of what the whole video is about. It is a good example of how language is the master of us: A distinction of logical types is not included in your language or the language of the speakers. The language doesn't include a drawn circle that is labeled complexity. We have to apply that circle. It's an all-encompassing circle- for us. I think the word Populism, the word for the relationship of Trump/Brexit to followers, is - for the speakers in this video- part of complexity. I don't think they are rejecting populism as a part of complexity. They are pointing to the dangers of populism because as a pattern of thinking/communicating/behaving, populism ignores complexity. Populism is indeed a subset of complexity, but if one is a popularist then one has probably performed a mental maneuver of imagining that there is no such thing as complexity, whether that maneuver is inadvertent, ignorance or something more sinister, judge a tree by it's fruit. Regardless, it's a technique that Anthony Wilden calls symmetrization and inversion. All of this is detailed in Wilden's books "The Rules Are No Game" and "Man and Woman, War and Peace".
@F--B Жыл бұрын
@@thomassumrall6765 My point is that 'acceptable discourse' is influenced by underlying moral frameworks, which manifest as ideological/political commitments; and which allow complex issues like Trump and Brexit to be collapsed into simple moral narratives.
@thomassumrall6765 Жыл бұрын
@@F--B ah, so you say that they didn't apply their complexity when it came to a deep bias? I suspect that may the most human tendency. Kinda like when Dave talks about the gorilla in the x-ray.
@F--B Жыл бұрын
@@thomassumrall6765 I don't have a problem with political commitments per se, but you'd hope that people who make a living from explaining how to operate in 'uncertainty' would have a little more self-awareness.
@thomassumrall6765 Жыл бұрын
@@F--B I see what you're saying. Maybe they could do some videos where they invite some brexiters into a virtual drinking game derived from some of the activities and sessions that they commonly perform.
@rolandweber7491 Жыл бұрын
Thanks for sharing - a lot of food for thought. My top two takeaways for now... big scale: There's no point in searching for a new grand narrative, because it has to emerge. small scale: Personal experiences are trans-contextual. I'll be looking for ways to appreciate that. Btw, in the description, the Star Trek links for 1. and 2. point to the same video, and both to the start (t=0s).
@JosephAuslander Жыл бұрын
This is great!! Dave, do you have any material on things to consider when training a customer to talk to tech?
@thecynefincompany Жыл бұрын
Thank you for your comment. Please check our Method Kit thecynefin.co/method-kits/ and Estuarine Mapping thecynefin.co/estuarine-mapping/