Click on the newest comments he commended 2months ago, recession, and higher home prices makes me nervous but I’m holding all my realistate he hasn’t been wrong since I first found him in 07

In 2024 we are still underbuilt, have increased immigration and increased inflation. Residential prices should continue to go up for now. With an 8 trillion budget, government spending stimulates the economy. Unfortunately higher rates translate to higher car purchases, higher interest rates on home purchases and higher credit card rates, which are not good. You have to be able to be sure your able to make the payments if you get laid off at work. Take classes and keep your job skills current so that you can get a job in a hurry if you need to.

My homes are in the Slc area I track them with Zillow I know people say that’s not accurate but I feel it’s pretty close,with all the realistate is crashing videos all my houses have been going up since January,they usually peak around June and they have surpassed last year’s peak. Demand must be driving prices. There are a lot of dence living structures being build but it must not be fast enuf?

Prices could double this decade. High government spending, inflation, still underbuilt, renewed immigration. Watch out for the stock market, there is too much promotion for companies that are about to fall. Real Estate is way safer. Now is the best time to hold residential Real Estate and to wait.

@@MrAlanKendall 👍🙂 I'll stay strong and hold. Only selling one to have some wiggle room. Thank you for your input

@@MrAlanKendall thank you Mr. Kendall for your opinion. You’ve been through a lot of markets and know what you’re talking about and it’s refreshing compared to all the doom and gloom Real Estate KZbinrs out there.

Right now we are under-built, so selling now is a mistake, prices should double this decade. Or course, it all depends on where you are, if an industry moves, or people leave because of the homeless, that could collapse prices in an area. Overall I expect US prices to rise. When we are under-built, prices rise, even in recessions like the 70's, dot com bubble and corona crisis. Prices should go up. Inflation, immigration, being under-built and government spending are stimulating Residential Real Estate prices. I know that Commercial Real Estate is different and very economically sensitive.

Thank you, Alan!

⁠@@MrAlanKendallwhen you say prices should double this decade should I take that as the average price of the home in 2030 could be double then the start of 2020?

@@TheBrokerLife Good question. I think it has already doubled and most cities will stay flat til 2030. Just can’t see another doubling unless rates dip below 5% again

I would say he met double from 2024 prices.

For Residential Real Estate, there have been 9 events that occurred at each of the 3 peaks in my lifetime. 1) High Rates 2) High Prices 3) High Rents 4) High Construction 5) Overbuilt 6) uptick in foreclosures 3 years prior to the peak 7) High Percent Home ownership 8) 1 down year and 9) 3 year Topping pattern (Triple top on existing sales and a megaphone on new sales). We are not overbuilt and do not have a high percent home ownership, so a Real Estate peak is not going to happen any year soon. What is keeping Residential Real Estate going in 2024 on is 1) High Government spending which will not wind down anytime soon. 2) Inflation which is great for housing 3) Immigration which is absorbing some of the old housing and 4) Still under-built. The Economy is a mixed bag. Higher rates affect companies with high debt (Businesses refinance their debt ever 3 to 5 years). Typically Airlines, Auto Manufacturers and Retail are forced to layoff or go bankrupt when rates go up. Many Retail companies have already gone bankrupt or are struggling. You have to keep your skills current to stay employed. I am currently working for a company that sends me to other companies to help with their computer problems and I am learning 10 times as fast as if I were in a regular job. 2024 is a critical year. Being an election year, the Fed usually will not raise rates much but higher taxes and higher layoffs will impact some. The most important thing is too keep your Job skills current. Take online or in-person classes. I never collected a day of unemployment during recessions because I kept my skills current and either got a job the week after being laid off, or wasn't laid off Three times I got a raise the week after I was laid off. I updated my resume the day I was laid off, emailed it the next day and interviewed the next week, and started the week after. Real Estate only changes direction 9% of the time. 91% of the time it does what it did last year. 2023 was an up year in all 50 states, it will be the same in 2024. High Government spending, inflation, immigration, and being under-built will prop up Real Estate prices in 2024 and offset the higher rates and business slowdowns. By Real Estate, I mean residential Real Estate will do well in 2024. I expect Commercial Real Estate to not do well in 2024 due to higher regulations, higher taxes and higher rates. Some areas that have increases in crime will have Residential Real Estate prices also have downward pressure.

Thank you Mr.Alan! Appreciate your thoughts, learned a lot from you!

@@MrAlanKendallThankyou please keep updating us!! I check all the time

It is almost always a mistake to hold on during major corrections. In the Last 2 meltdowns, I only sold my home, which was a mistake. Vacancies and having to lower rents almost bankrupted me both times. I could have bought back the properties at 1/3 the previous prices. Rents, Prices and Rates fall in major corrections. Holding on is a big mistakes.

@MrAlanKendall wow. Good info. If you could do it over again and sell during a correction, where would you have put your gain proceeds based on what you now know? FYI awesome channel. I've been binge on all your videos. It's amazing seeing your old videos and how accurate they are now that the time has come.

The most important is if the year closes up. During 2 years prior to a collapse, some states close down in average price. This did not happen in 2022, nor 2023, so we are still years out from a nationwide peak. The second most important is if we are underbuilt or overbuilt. We are still underbuilt after builders laid off 74% of their employees 2007-2017. Immigration is absorbing existing housing, we should still be holding.

The formula in the Video is very oversimplified. Warren uses much more complicated forms of evaluation than the one described in this video. Like all formulas, it reveals some truths. It can be used to identify companies with large earnings that sell cheap. When you do it against 100 companies you find that Airlines, Auto manufacturers and Retail stores tend to have low earnings for high prices and very poor scores. Just like Warren has repeated in so many of his annual reports. It also helps you to buy companies with high earnings at a discount, just like Warren does.

The last 19 months in a row have had less home starts due to higher interest rates. The last 19 months in a row have had less business investments. This hints that 2024 will be a recession year. Typically 2 years into this downsizing, a recession hits. It will depend on how much debt a company has. The companies like Airlines, Auto Manufacturers and Retail are already downsizing and some already in bankruptcy due to the high competition, low profits and high debt. For an individual, I recommend keeping your skills current so you can get another job if laid off. Take classes if necessary. A friend took a Python class three times until he got an A in it and started at $50 per hour right out of High School. Specialize and Persist. Easier than Python programming is MySQL database, but it pays $40 to start. If someone learns one or both but not too well, they can start as an Operator at $30 per hour. Specialize and Persist, those are the 2 secrets to high pay. It just turns out that MySQL and Python are 2 careers in Computers where you can take just 1 class and get a jobs. Also MySQL and Python are way easier than AI, Networking and Security. I do not expect Residential Real Estate to crash any year soon because of 1. Inflation 2. Immigration 3. High Stimulus spending still unwinding, and 4. Still Under-built nationwide. Commercial Real Estate is too risky for me, and many will get foreclosed on when they cannot rent the units with Businesses downsizing to compensate for higher rates.

@@MrAlanKendallgot it. Really appreciate the time you take to answer, thanks.

The next problem is your tenants keeping there skills up to pay rent if they loose there job is going to cost you also

All the government spending is stimulating the economy but higher rates are usually very bad for Airlines, Auto Manufacturers and Retail that have high debt. Historically when rates go up, and when they have to refinance, they do layoffs to conserve enough cash to be able to survive. In other industries, it depends on the companies that have high debt will go bankrupt and the ones that have low debt will survive. I don'e expect Residential Real Estate to crash any year soon because 1. we are still under-built. 2. increased immigration 3. Inflation which is great for Real Estate prices and 4. Govt Spending which stimulates the economy. So I expect April 2024 to be a real wake-up time for those that will be paying higher taxes and higher rates.

In 2023, the Government is spending 6 trillion per year but only taking in 4 trillion in taxes. The spending bills that were that were passed by congress in 2020, 2021, 2022 and 2023 still are in effect and the federal government has grown to 2 million employees, 35% more than at the start of the covid. The US Federal Government is now the largest organization in the World. The Government has to start to stop spending so much to control inflation. History shows that it takes 2 years of controlling spending to wind the inflation down. The Government has not cut spending yet, so inflation will continue for several more years. The higher rates take a couple of years to infect the economy, so in 2024, the higher taxes and higher rates will take it's toll and unemployment should start to rise.

For Housing, I could not find anything in over 1000 books on investing. The construction cycle and the effect of the Kondratieff cycle I put together myself. The seasonal cycle can be seen on any Govt publication of average home prices in the US but the 5 year rules I put together from following 2 cycles first hand. The seasonal cycle is buy in January and sell in June or July. Long term, In the 3 peaks in my lifetime, it was best to buy in the 5th year after the peak. Also, uplegs never lasted less than 12.5 years, so it is best not to sell too soon.

The Government raises rates when inflation is high. Inflation is fantastic for Real Estate prices. Real Estate always falls in price September through January, then rises February through August, so don't worry. You have to have a down year, and no states closed down in 2022 (if you listened to the news, you would have thought that all states closed down in 2022). Real Estate could double within 10 years due to 1. Being Under-built. 2. Immigration absorbing much of the older housing 3. Inflation 4. Strong economy due to high Government spending. Currently 4 million more are employed than at the start of the Corona. Sure higher rates are not good for Real Estate nor good for the Economy, but this will affect Commercial Real Estate with variable loans and Industries like Airlines, Auto Manufacturers and Retail the most because they have high debt. The last time rates were high, Real Estate in my are quadrupled. States like Arkansas will easily double due to the very low prices. At some point younger people will start to buy the houses and prices will double. I am holding for now and possibly going to buy more.

⁠@@MrAlanKendallthanks for the constant answer updates mr Allan Kendal,there are soooo many doom and gloom housing is about to drop 50% you tube content out there it makes me nervous thinking I should have sold 2022,holding 3 houses in Slc ut value is dropping but that was to be expected

Rates are usually lower the first 3 months of the year, which should give opportunities to refinance at a lower rate in the future. 2024 is an election year, so don't expect too much of a rate hike (This methodology did not work in 2022 during the mid election year, where they raised rates a lot). A man who owned over 100 rental properties told me to never buy down the rate, but I have in a few cases bought down the rate. He said to keep the money and buy more properties. It takes a couple of years for the rate hikes to infect the economy and companies with high debt like airlines, auto manufacturers and retail owe the most and are the most vulnerable. Be sure and keep your skills current. Take classes if necessary. 2024, with higher taxes and higher rates might bring more layoffs and a weaker economy. High Government spending is stimulating the economy and 4 million more are employed now than under Trump, which a lot of people don't know. With all the spending, don't expect a big economic recession, just possibly in airlines, retail and auto manufacturing, and any companies with high debt. Real Estate is being supported by inflation, immigration (which is absorbing older housing), being under built (which should last till the end of the decade) and a strong economy due to all the Government spending. I am still buying. I don't think that inflation and rates will get as bad as they did under Jimmy Carter because both the house and senate were controlled by democrats. Now that the House is controlled by Republicans, expect some holding back on social spending. My Cousin bought a home with a 21% loan in 1980. High rates just means that inflation is pushing up real estate prices, so I am happy to be in a higher rate environment. Homes in my area quadrupled in price under Jimmy Carter but with higher taxes in California, I have not seen much appreciation in 2 years.

Thank you for sharing your valuable information Mr Kendall

Same here man, wild ride. I love checking back in wish he did more content

When you think about how it all boils down to something as simple as supply and demand…it actually puts it all in perspective. Was thinking about selling a couple of units, but I’m probably going to wait a couple years, after watching this. I really hope he’s still right! 😅😅😅😅

@@acbnb-comhe has made comments 7days ago from today

I DO TOO … always check back to see new posts!! I held on two CA properties , thank god I listened to Kendall

I listened to my brother in 2o11 instead of my gut telling me that kendall was genius. Cast me $ 500,000. Now as Alan said Gold and Silver will go up but how high do you have any idea. It was only supposed to git $ 3,000. Gold this year in 2024 but it keeps climbing.

For Real Estate, there have been 9 events that occurred at each of the 3 peaks in my lifetime. 1) High Rates 2) High Prices 3) High Rents 4) High Construction 5) Overbuilt 6) uptick in foreclosures 3 years prior to the peak 7) High Percent Home ownership 8) 1 down year and 9) 3 year Topping pattern (Triple top on existing sales and a megaphone on new sales). We are not overbuilt and do not have a high percent home ownership, so a Real Estate peak is not going to happen any year soon. What is keeping Real Estate going in 2023 on is 1) 4 million more employed than before covid (due to high Government spending). So the economy is doing great! 2) Inflation which is great for housing 3) Immigration which is absorbing a lot of the old housing and 4) Still under-built. The Economy is a mixed bag. Higher rates affect companies with high debt (Businesses refinance their debt ever 3 to 5 years). Typically Airlines, Auto Manufacturers and Retail are forced to layoff or go bankrupt when rates go up. Many Retail companies have already gone bankrupt or are struggling. 2024 is a critical year. Being an election year, the Fed usually will not raise rates much but higher taxes and higher layoffs will impact some. The most important thing is too keep your Job skills current. Take online or in-person classes. I never collected a day of unemployment during recessions because I kept my skills current. Three times I got a raise the week after I was laid off. I updated my resume the day I was laid off, emailed it the next day and interviewed the next week.

@@MrAlanKendall Wow thanks for taking the time to write a detailed response! I greatly appreciate it.