You're discounting how exponential law works.

@@rekad8181 No I am not. I am only assuming that the power requirement for ChatGPT will halve every two years to get down from a power requirement in the megawatts to under 100W. You could argue that it needs to be under 10W to be properly cheap. Like I said the general public has no idea how insane the power requirements and cost of these big GPU systems are. I spent two months at the start of this year putting together a bid for a 2000+ GPU system. Ballpark 2000 GPUs will cost you $70 million and the power requirement is ~2.5 to 3MW depending on your cooling method. The annual electricity bill will run in the region of $8 million. Right now when you are using something like ChatGPT you are not paying anywhere near the full economic cost and are burning through VC funding. Edited to add that halving 10 times will reduce the power consumption by a factor of 1024000 times which is just over a million. Remember these systems currently consume millions of watts of power, so I need to reduce the power by a factor of roughly a million to make them cheap.

@@rekad8181 No I am not, 10 iterations of Mores Law would reduce the power consumption by 1024000 times which is just a bit over one million, which will reduce the current power consumption for something like ChatGPT from millions of Watts to a few Watts and the cost from tens of millions of dollars to under a 100 dollars. If each iteration of Mores Law takes two years then 10 iterations is 20 years from now. Like I said the general public have no understanding of the completely insane power requirements and cost of AI systems. For comparison the original Cray supercomputer cost in 2023 dollars about $40 million, half the price of a ChatGPT system and the power requirements were 115kW which is a twentieth of a ChatGPT system. These original supercomputers make AI systems look cheap to buy and even cheaper to run.

They already cut 50% the price of gpt4o compared to gpt4-turbo...so i really doubt that this will still cost as much as you said. But at the end i really hope you're right, because if not we are screwed.