Their key backs were good - their small and medium defenders really weren't by my metrics and that's where the damage was done Plus McGovern is more of an intercept guy than a one on one guy which skews the numbers a bit

My algorithm may look for different things compared to Champion, I think VORP is looking for something slightly different than what Ranking Points do - Daics and Cripps certainly had better starts to the season, though. For me, Bont had better whole ground impact, which is what VORP looks for, and why pure mid Brownlow types often find themselves outside my top 10, as well as my system necessarily giving more top spots to players of different positions. Absolutely agree that you can make stats tell different stories, and that Cripps and Daics had great seasons. I feel these numbers help prove that their vote tallies, as well as some others, were over inflated.

Thanks! Yeah the plan is to release the spreadsheets on my Patreon, just gotta clean them up bc right now there's graphs all over the place and data isn't sorted in the best way

These numbers are a little deceptive - they're based on player performance and don't have anything to do with what the opposition are doing. Geelong's clearance numbers for were high, as was their scoring, assisting and contested ball - hence why their individual mids posted high ratings relative to other teams. However, they conceded the most clearances of any team. My VORP numbers don't really have a way of tracking a midfielder's defensive accountability like that, hence the overperformance. If I create some team stat-based metrics (such as my points per live minute or attacking efficiency comparison) this will better illustrate these types of deficiencies in a team's game, but I'm hesistant to work that into VORP as I try to make VORP as team-independent as possible (i.e. for generating points created through score assists or saved through 1 on 1 contests, I use league average accuracy rather than the player's team). Hope that helps explain how the numbers came up as they did here.

@@thegaz-man Thanks for explaining. Really appreciate the work you are doing on statistical analysis for AFL. I've always loved the analytics of baseball and felt our sport was a bit lacking but it seems to be a growing area.

​@PeekayIP no worries! I've absolutely still got a lot to learn about data analytics, especially with team related stats. I would love to create a predictive model one day but I just don't know enough yet haha

That's what I want to hear!!! Looking forward to seeing you back next season!

Thank you so much, I'm glad my admiration and interest of St Kilda came across. Originally I just thought 'ha ha shit team, let's tell their story', but I've genuinely developed a fondness for the club. They're the greatest storytellers in the league, with the loudest characters and brightest cult heroes. As an outsider, I love that, and I have the utmost respect to anyone who stays loyal to a team who aren't, and never have been, about results. Hope for your, and all St Kilda fans' sakes that 2025 brings some enjoyment.

@@thegaz-man remember that I said that I am a life-long Collingwood supporter. The word 'loyalty' has 2 Ys, neither of which are questions...

I definitely want to tackle that someday. I've got something in the works about the league in the 1990s, genuinely think it's the most interesting time any league has had since the throw-pass era. Not sure when that'll be ready but it won't be for a while, I think

Apologies, my brain is still used to pre-Gather Round fixturing haha I can assure you that past me has locked in all season length adjusted metrics to a 23 game season length.

My numbers compare each player to others relative to their position. This means, by necessity, that more players who aren't midfielders get better scores, unlike the systems you just mentioned. It's important to note that VORP isn't about 'the best' player - It's value over a replacement-level (average stats) player in the same position, relative to Time on Ground. Cripps had a TOG of 83.1%. Out of midfielders to have that level of minutes, only Bont, Daics and Neale had a higher positional VORP. However, guys like Heeney, Young and Petracca did as much, or slightly more, in less on field time which my system values. Cripps also didn't score as much, had lower defensive contributions, and had way more clangers than the other guys he is competing against. This is why his VORP is around 5.3, still a very good season, and a VORP that other Brownlow winners have come near. Kennedy, he benefitted from circumstance. AFL.com.au lists him as a forward and midfielder. His stats for both are the same, and listed forwards who rotate through the midfield always have somewhat inflated VORPs. His VORP as a FW was 4.84, compared to 1.73 as a pure mid. Because he split time at both, he seemed like a great forward due to boosted disposal numbers, but low numbers compared to top mids bc of time forward tank his midfield numbers. Tom De Koning, who also ranked higher than Cripps, is a simpler story - he was the second most efficient ruckman which is reflected in his VORP of 5.8, but since he sees less of the ball compared to Cripps, metrics like the ones you mentioned undervalue his contributions relative to other players in his own position. If he'd won a close count with votes in the high 20s, I wouldn't mind. I'd still feel Bont was robbed, but it would be more acceptable. Him and Daicos both breaking the record vote tally imply mind-bending, record-shattering seasons that aren't reflected in any stats that I've seen. My VORP stats, based on data, and medal voting - based on percieved impact and gut feel - are fundamentally different but runaway Brownlow winners (Ablett, Danger, Martin) generally do well in both. Cripps had a VORP similar to Wines and Priddis when they won. That's what I mean when I said what I said. It's not 'just hate'. It's a formula designed to put a single value to each player, regardless of team or position, for a basic comparison.

Glad you enjoyed it!

Thanks! Definitely a lot of data to pour through haha

I might be a bit bitter after my Melbourne pickle juice wager haha However I have covered Melbourne favourably in the past, namely in my Demonic Ritual series

Thank you so much!!! Glad you've got the footy bug back, I'm hoping to really expand next year so really looking forward to it!

Oh really? That's a shame, kinda makes him the perfect Sandwich Man though

Young mids almost always start out with low VORPS, especially in low-win teams. In terms of being a pure impact player he rates with Coniglio and Rozee which is very promising.

As a Crows fan, I'm shocked that Kelly has lasted this long. I hope he and McKay improve for Bombers' fans sakes but I can't see that becoming a solid core.

That's a fair concern - all player positions come from the AFL website stats and some have two - touched on it with JHF but it means some players have two VORPS, comparing the same stats to different positions. In this case it's best to ignore the lower VORP. I didn't notice Garcia doubled up, so that outlying minus score can be disregarded. Haven't engineered a way for the numbers to spit out the best VORP per player in my spreadsheet so apologies for the confusion caused with all that!

Ahhh yep apologies, haven't really seen too much of his game.

I'm just judging by Elo ranking. Pythagorean wins are probably a better measure of a single season team, I was more referring to the overall form of teams taking the prior season or two into account, considering the Crows' 2023 season, and Elo is a better tool for that.

@@thegaz-man ah yeah fair enough, I thought it was just a single season measure and I was very confused lol

Swingmen can get hurt or be helped by this system - Tom McDonald had an insane season judged as a key back when he scored 20 odd goals one year. Hardwick probably got hurt by not spending enough time front or back

Haha thanks!!!

Cheers for the clarification! I'm guessing a more defensive and less rebounding role this year?

@thegaz-man Believe it or not actually the opposite, he was always the small lockdown Defender with intercepting prowess, this year he has played Darcy Moore role if Moore was smaller

I've never seen a team fall down that badly before - you could make a reasonable case, and I plan to in a couple weeks, that 2023 Adelaide should have been minor Premiers. To fall to 15th after that, oooh boy. The only positive is if we get Sid Draper and even then, it wasn't worth it.

@thegaz-man lets just be a little more conservative and say they will get the 8th position and just make the finals and get eliminated in the first final game 😂😂😂 The sad life of a crows fan.

We're doing it on ESPN, The GAZ-man Official Tipping Competition or something like that! I'll post the links to next year's competition during preseason

@ nice

I think so! Can't think of another family set to have multiple members come so close without winning it outright

Imagine if Pavlich heads up that forward line in 2005. Premiership for sure.

@@thegaz-man would have been a nasty, nasty side.

Technically they are one and the same now, after their 2010 merger. Personally I like to think of the Power a bit like a shell corporation, a loophole with an ABN. The manner in which they formed was utterly bizarre and I feel do disqualify Port from counting their AFL flag alongside their SANFL flags, I'll grant you that.

@@thegaz-man I did say "were a different club"

True. I'm yet to read deeply into how Port actually formed, would like to do that and make it a video one day

Haha I sure hope so, I'll just be happy with making finals at all

It's so hard to read where the Pies stand for 2025. My numbers show that they didn't play well enough to make finals and 9th is fair, but some close losses to good sides that kept them from the 8 say otherwise. I think they're a mid table side for next year, no more no less, but Membrey is the big money addition.

Tbf it was Adelaide's incompetence that prevented them from getting close, they fooled everyone. Also there was a journo who tipped a Carlton-Collingwood matchup so it could always be worse!

Yeah, it's imitation pickle juice from the local supermarket. Can assure you the pickle taste is 100 per cent authentic. Maybe too much so 😅

Thanks for the kind words! It's just been such a bizarre season, so hard to predict anything even week to week haha For me, I'm so happy with the Hawks pick, felt like I was the only one with any faith. Just ignore all my top four picks 😅😅

Very impressive effort for sure! So hard to pick this year, which might be the new norm going forward. Would love to hear the thoughts behind Max King! Good player but way too inaccurate for mine, plus he's made out of rice paper. Then again, I thought Larkey was this generations Tony Lockett and look where that got me 😅😅 Hope to see ya in the competition next season!

@@thegaz-man I tipped St Kilda to have a good season this year, Ross Lyon did a good job getting them playing a cohesive brand of footy in 2023 despite quite a few key injuries and I thought they would build off that. Then I thought if the Saints improve, Max King should be able to have a real statement year. He showed immense talent and potential in 2021 and 2022, and despite being injured for a lot of 2023 he still had good moments. Unfortunately nothing seemed to click for St Kilda this year.

I can see the logic in that - I certainly wasn't expecting the Saints to fall off that much. I guess I had the same sort of logic for Larkey.

We had two joker rounds, plus a bonus point for a perfect round, which inflates the scores a bit. I think the real score was somewhere in the mid 140s

Honestly this year has been so unpredictable that no one can be too harsh on themselves. The fact that on average, the AFL journos were only marginally better than ordinary punters attests to that. Plus, Reid getting suspended really opened everything up.

Thanks for the support!! I understand, my content isn't some people's cup of tea, and that's fine!

@@thegaz-man I’ll get onto him a little more soon

Thanks! I don't think I'll ever stop being triggered by that vote tally 😅😅

Indeed, the difference in predictions challenge scores from the halfway mark to the end is insane, some people changed by 30 points (including medallist scores). I've never seen teams in 4th and 13th at Round 12 basically swap places in the final 11 games. Crazy year. The Pies could have been contenders again but for some close results - then again, they beat my Crows by under a goal *again* so swings and roundabouts 😅

@@thegaz-man After last year, I expected more from your Crows, just as I expected another finals campaign from my Pies... But each year is different - sometimes subtly, sometimes radically so... 2024 was the most even season I can remember... 2025, you would expect Hawthorn, Brisbane to be high on the ladder, after the trade period... but it is a different year... and it will have its own way... injuries, controversies... new stars

There's 15 sides who have legitimate claims to be finals contenders next year. It's going to be amazing.

Thanks for the support, and congrats again. Looking forward to doing this all again in 2025!!!

Also can u link the Patreon!

Yeah, sorry about that! Just updated the description so all links should be in there now hopefully

@@thegaz-man no worries. As usual great video!

@mitchelltidball6944 thanks so much, and thanks as well for jumping on board the Patreon!

🤣🤣 I'm just glad it wasn't me bc halfway through the season it was looking grim for my picks. If it's anything, someone got -90 on ladder picks last year. Mainly what brought you down in the overall standings was that you didn't nominate a premier and a runner-up. There's always next year though!

With Adelaide I think I bought into the hype and got overwhelmed by being positive about my club for the first time in seven years 😅😅 They scored the most last year but their forwards coach left, plus Walker regressed and Thilthorpe missed 15 games. I also overlooked the backline being really inexperienced, and Nicks having the tactical mastery of a kitten in a washing machine.

9th would have been pretty decent! Geelong in 11th was brave, but you got Port and the Dogs a lot closer than most. Congrats on getting past me in tipping, I had a bit of a shocker this year 😅😅 Think the best form I had in tipping was when I left the country for a couple weeks haha

🤣🤣🤣 genuinely stuck with me for days, the taste of that stuff was intense haha

Underrated comment ❤ that’s given me a proper chuckle 👏

I can't deny that last game against Carlton was thrilling, and on their day the Saints can produce a fun game (mainly against my Crows 😅😅). Compared to the last 40 years though, it seems this Saints side isn’t as notable, I guess. Compared to the Lockett era, or the weird late 90s, or the Thomas/Lyon Premiership assaults, or the falling-down-the-stairs vibe of the 2010s, the Saints haven’t got a particular aura around them right now. Just my opinion though. If you're excited by your lads, that's awesome, and I genuinely hope they do well next year. If those youngsters develop, they could be a really fun fringe of the eight kind of side.

@@thegaz-man I think Wilson and Wanganeen Milera have and will add excitement.

It would appear so. It's a shame, but if they sell a home game in Perth, they'll have done so for five different states which has to be a record.

@@thegaz-man Legit SA may be the only state they have never hosted a home game in

@@Codewordthecerealkiller0 would you count Gather Round?

@@thegaz-man Aren't all the teams considered neutral?

@@Codewordthecerealkiller0 I think so, I guess I was gunning for a bit of a technicality

Sorry it's been a while!! Got a video dropping today, plus I'm working on a few things in the background. Things will slow down a bit through the rest of the year but will pick up next year!

Ohhh fingers crossed. Honestly I'm just hoping for finals at this point. We have to make it, right?

@thegaz-man right! Honestly, the game will stack up, but whether the coach is actually good enough yet. Well, we still don't know. But with a bunch of players approaching 50-60 games together, yes it's time.

Ahhh cheers. Either way I think the country zones in this hypothetical would just be so messed up haha