RoninOwl

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@SmutGrrl 9 күн бұрын

"In my eyes...bughhlllshiittt" was probably my favorite line 🤭💖 I liked this video, thanks!

@sofija6082 2 ай бұрын

which book you were using for reference

@poot8312 7 ай бұрын

i love your narrating voice!! was shocked to see how little engagement this has, this video is super professionally done

@amerubix185 Жыл бұрын

You have the skills and I wish you the luck to make it! :)

@maximilyen Жыл бұрын

Good😍

@nereanim Жыл бұрын

Success is simply not the norm... give it your best and minimize the chances of failure at every turn by being realistic about money, scope and goals, and hope for luck and the best... and foremost do your own way. Never copy anyone else.

@clare_est 2 жыл бұрын

Thank you so much for this! I have been searching everywhere for an example of the negative punishment of the Skinner Box. God bless you.

@adrielflorencio5814 2 жыл бұрын

It's awesome the way he speak this content. i've search for how to understand this and he speak very clearly .

@shaan293 2 жыл бұрын

Siuuuu

@ALCRAN2010 2 жыл бұрын

Ha! This was a wonderful presentation. Thanks

@AmazingStoryDewd 3 жыл бұрын

Ah Yes survivorship bias. Or as i call it the ultimate form of cynicism lol. Then again there's a lot of truth to it. We do like to focus on those that succeed. However for the few that succeed many fail. People like to attribute most of these failures to chance. While outside factors do certainly come into play so do aptitude, persistence, dedication. Chance aside truth is many people lack the ability or fortitude to achieve their lofty goals.

@RoninLEul 2 жыл бұрын

That is a very good point, I should have focused on a little more. The problem cases are indeed "good product - rarely presented" and "bad products - often presented" Good examples can even be found on TV in shows like shark tank, dragons den, ... You don't have to be an economist to see what products don't have a future, but the creators are furious when they get turned down. Or the very promising products, that are only being sold locally and they wonder, why the sales numbers are so low. Those two groups are most likely to cry out for having bad luck. They follow their dreams, but those dreams were never meant to become reality in the first place. The other side that I mainly focused on, are people who are dedicated to their work and put out good products. You can have a musician who got discovered on the first track they ever made. Or you can have a musician who was recognized on their 100th track. We can go back and time and look at artist Vincent van Gogh or composer Johann Sebastian Bach. Barely recognized during their live time and celebrated today. In the examples I listed, I should have declared that all those people did excellent work and / or quality and presentation wise. Yes it was unexpected, but would not have happened if executed poorly.

@darhouriwalid2146 3 жыл бұрын

Keep up the good work

@mrdudeman27 3 жыл бұрын

One of the absolute best explanations of SDT out there!

@malihausmani5945 3 жыл бұрын

Very well presented.

@fugopychotka7560 3 жыл бұрын

@RoninLEul 3 жыл бұрын

Heloo

@importsfixmedicals.a.s.803 3 жыл бұрын

hi.. could you tell. me please, if you make this animations with a wacom tablet or anything else? tks

@prkgwn 3 жыл бұрын

good vid

@TheFilipFonky 3 жыл бұрын

Man I was expecting a 180 at the end to encourage people to try their best, that's a bit of a bleak ending isnt it, eh mate? Good video nonetheless, subscribed

@ab2001k 3 жыл бұрын

Please make more like Human Behaviour

@ab2001k 3 жыл бұрын

Great information!!

@bud389 3 жыл бұрын

Doesn't this fallacy sort of beg the question? Whether or not someone thinks an outcome is "supposed" to happen in a sequence is irrelevant, we already know that the odds of it happening in a certain sequence (in an unbiased system or biased one) increases exponentially, like someone assuming the next flip will land on heads after 10 times of landing on tails.

@basemkhourma5163 3 жыл бұрын

Thank you very much

@Rafirufi 3 жыл бұрын

I think this is a really well made video and it shocked me when I saw 0 comments and less than 1000 views. I know this is an old video but I still want to show my support

@meikstreid4641 3 жыл бұрын

Thank you for putting into words what I was so frustrated with, I fucking hate this game's tutorial.

@TonyEtown420 3 жыл бұрын

This entire concept IS BIASED. Lololololol 😂 EGG CHICKEN dude

@jater10 4 жыл бұрын

One big survivor bias I have a gripe with is the college dropout stories for tech startups (Zuckerberg, Gates). We never hear about the possibly many more who did the same and failed trying to do the same thing.

@AmazingStoryDewd 3 жыл бұрын

Some people don't have the ability.

@kajamatousek247 10 ай бұрын

@@AmazingStoryDewd Did you even watch the video ?

@Robert08010 4 жыл бұрын

This fundamentally disagrees with life experience. You can offer all the "Yeah no."s you want. Surely any one toss is 50/50. But knowing that any 100 tosses is also very close to 50/50 means there is a thing called "Likelihood". Maybe that is different from "probability" is some mathematical sense; I don't know. But 5 heads in a row does mean a tails is becoming more and more likely.

@datdao6982 3 жыл бұрын

I feel like that too and it really perplexes me. For example, in a series of 100 coin tosses, assume the coin is balanced and the outcome random. If the first 50 tosses are all head then one would think the majority of 50 tosses left should be tails. This is the basic of distribution, the foundation of statistics, is it not? In stat, the sample size maybe even smaller than 100 and they create several tests for samples that are smaller in size. So the question is, is statistics wrong to assume that even with a small sample size we still can assume normal distribution?

@shanetwomey4403 3 жыл бұрын

This is exactly how somebody under the influence of the gambler's fallacy thinks. The outcome of previous tosses has no influence on future tosses, therefore every toss is 50/50. If there has been 5 heads in a row, the probability of a tails in the next toss is still 50% - the probability has not changed. You mention any 100 tosses is 50/50 also, which is true. But, it does not mean that every time 100 coins are tossed that it will always have 50 heads and 50 tails.

@Robert08010 3 жыл бұрын

@@shanetwomey4403 Look at the word you are using. "influence". Of course one toss does not influence anything. It can't. Its not a wind to blow nor a sun to scorch. So of course a toss can't influence. That an argument from absurdum. That does not negate the FACT that when there are only 2 possible outcomes, and we know those outcomes are going to be very close to 50/50 then we can predict future outcomes based on previous outcomes. Certainly THEY don't influence anything because they can't. Bu the law of averages is still a law.

@shanetwomey4403 3 жыл бұрын

@@Robert08010 The gambler's fallacy relates to sample sizes. It is derived from the law of small numbers. Yes, in theory if you flip a coin infinite times it will be 50% heads 50% tails, the fallacy is not arguing against that. The fallacy works with samples, so far example: in 100 tosses you get 80 heads and 20 tails, under the gambler's fallacy a person will wrongly believe that the next 100 tosses will likely have more tails than heads, this is not true because the probability is always 50/50.

@neoepicurean3772 2 жыл бұрын

I agree with you Rob, and so does life. If you are at a roulette table (let's ignore the green for now) and there is a long run of reds, say 12 or so, and you want to place a bet, then I think you have two bits of information to base your decision on: either the wheel is faulty, or the fact that as the sample size grows it's more likely to approach the base probability in the large numbers scenario. The 'fallacy' is pointing out that some think the probability has changed, or the wheel 'owes' you something. I maintain that it is rational to bet against a long run for reds or heads, the longer the run the more rational it becomes. Or the more likely that you're dealing with a dodgy wheel or coin. Bear in mind that the longest run of one colour seen at any casino is something like 33. Is this the point when the law of large numbers starts to pull? I don't think that it makes any sense to suggest there is some bright line between small numbers and large numbers, and the law of large numbers must always exert some pull, which grows as the sample size increases. I'm sure there's been ink spilt on this topic, so enlighten me if you happen to know more about it and I'm obviously in error.

@theswcoaching 4 жыл бұрын

Great video. I felt moved to make a video on this myself because it comes up a lot of my coaching conversations, demotivation arising because people feel like they're the only struggler in a world apparently full of one-percenters! Like freelance writers convinced they're the only struggling writer because 'everybody else is successful'. On the WW2 planes, it always seemed obious to me that the damaged parts on the surviving planes are exactly where you don't need to reinforce, but I can see how easy it must have been to fall for that one!

@DrTWG 4 жыл бұрын

There appear to be many factors influencing 'success' - luck is more important than most people realise - especially in say - the entertainment business . Who you know/connections/nepotism . Just some thoughts

@RoninLEul 4 жыл бұрын

Absolutely correct, thanks for pointing that out. Being carried or boosted by an already established name is another influence not available to anyone.

@jater10 4 жыл бұрын

Also another factor in industries like entertainment is looks matter. Talent alone isn't enough,entertainers are commodities who have "the package" to sell to the mainstream. There are so many who could sing well but never make it because they don't have it.

@donaldlyons17 3 жыл бұрын

No anyone who has been alive for any length of time knows luck impacts all type of stuff. I have always believed that luck (chance) matters but we all have to do what we can to increase your odds!! Who you know not what you know matter too (It seems like to me in the better jobs who you know matters?) Your quote: (There appear to be many factors influencing 'success' - luck is more important than most people realize - especially in say - the entertainment business . Who you know/connections/nepotism . Just some thoughts)

@kendyl6806 4 жыл бұрын

This was a good video, thank you for making it =)

@lyricdakota6174 3 жыл бұрын

Not sure if you guys gives a shit but if you are bored like me atm then you can watch all of the new movies on InstaFlixxer. Have been streaming with my girlfriend for the last few months xD

@maisoncory4967 3 жыл бұрын

@Lyric Dakota definitely, been using instaflixxer for months myself :)

@bowenantonio3302 3 жыл бұрын

@Lyric Dakota Definitely, have been watching on InstaFlixxer for years myself =)

@juelzsutton172 3 жыл бұрын

@Lyric Dakota Yup, been watching on InstaFlixxer for months myself :)

@brucesalvador6150 3 жыл бұрын

@Lyric Dakota Yup, I have been watching on instaflixxer for months myself :)

@downo 4 жыл бұрын

Well-done piece! After completing my watch, I've been shocked with the tremendous lack of views on this though... 😅

@Jimmilito1 5 жыл бұрын

Very educative. Thank you.

@RoninLEul 5 жыл бұрын

You have any serious or fun suggestions for this serious? Let me know. I would like to analyze your experiences, and why it might crack you up.

@saara5656 5 жыл бұрын

thank you! great explanation 👍

@TomDouris 5 жыл бұрын

Thanks very much, this really helped me!

@iambutafish 5 жыл бұрын

Very realistic and despite me not wanting to hear it, you're right. It really bums me out, though...but all you can do is keep doing your best and hoping. Giving up would make that nearly impossible chance of "success" an absolute impossibility. Keep swimming.