(04/11/2022) - Seminário Centro PI - Ana Cascon & William F. Shadwick

Title: A new approach to epidemiological models From Pandemic Influenza to Covid-19
Starting with data from epidemics over the past 170 years, we have developed a new model. It both makes accurate real-time predictions of hospital requirements for Covid-19 and produces conjectures which are testable against data.
We describe the model, and its relationship with seasonal influenza, illustrated with numerous examples. As well as our predictions of Covid-19 hospital admissions in England during the four Omicron outbreaks since December 2021, we will discuss how the model’s prediction about new variants is being tested. Finally we indicate how our approach changes understanding of the ‘Spanish Flu’ pandemic and the Chinese response to Covid-19 in early 2020.
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