100%準確的經濟指標「薩姆規則」確定衰退已開始😱

[@josephwong2267]

股神巴菲特對老散嘅忠告就係：如果決定咗長線投資，最佳嘅方法就係買S&P500.省卻揀股嘅煩惱，事實証明呢種投資方式，跑贏大部分跑基金經理，又唔駛比高昂嘅基金管理費用。

[@Eva1314_XYZ]

VOO SPY ？

[@叉雞飯-g6g]

@@Eva1314_XYZ 都可以SPLG

[@as1679]

我心目中嘅最佳方法係買BRKB 😂

[@kailam1448]

@@as1679 而家風險太明顯了，巴菲特一死，呢間公司一定被拋售

[@yenfishlam]

諗住等snp500落返少少先買囉

[@shekthree5068]

睇左咁多個youtuber既片 我覺得阿豬既分析係最合邏輯同俾到持平既專業意見

[@alexlee5969]

豬哥，你是唯一一個可以咁清楚咁有邏輯表達D金融知識，同時也很貼地講到實踐層面方面。非常高質素，謝謝你

[@lilyll9930]

完全同意你的分析。千萬不要自作聰明去time the market.

[@kitkit2721]

好厲害 講得好貼地👍🏻👍🏻👍🏻

[@MyArnoldTang]

結論：Sahm Rule 2019 先設計出黎，淨係predict過一次，仲要係黑天鵝。先射箭再畫靶。All models are wrong but some are useful.

[@bencheung1482]

Looking at the formula, i think this rule was “triggered” (😂 ) due to the low unemployment rate over the past 12 months in addition to the sudden spike from June onwards. I don’t believe in models nor do I believe in Economists who use past data to predict the future. Hindsight is always 20/20!

[@ERICLAU0304]

一聽到2019先發明就想講，只能話係backtest 100% accurate

[@fccpgmzmac03]

其實肺炎個次唔係黑天鵝黎 😂，個陣個市場一早已plan左3月係爆跌，有哂數據一早知，當然哩D唔係人人都一早發現，同港股一樣個陣又係一早已plan 3月大爆，同時抽返上 3皮後又係已plan左之後一路大跌後冇得反身 🤣

[@MrHenrymmm]

咁而家呢 應該你有數據一早知個市點走 師兄 可否透露下天機​@@fccpgmzmac03

[@dxgm8512]

thanks Ah Ju for this, chiu, I thought this sahm's rule has been around for a while, but it was only "created" in 2019? That's not even been tested, and definitely it sounds like over-fitting...

[@HuiMenson]

支持阿猪😊

[@zxczxc1175]

長線 , 簡幾隻靚野 , 唔係月供 , 就係低位溝貨

[@jase298hkhk]

I live in US, and I think people are spending less on restaurants for the last couple years. Luxury cars sales are dropping. Even delivery apps are giving huge discount on regular basis. I would say they're very good every day indicators for recession.

[@Eva1314_XYZ]

Bay Area tech laid off a lot of workers

[@NYCyyc]

I agreed, I’m in NYC, not many people going out as much as used to, I didn’t look at price when I shopped but now I do compare prices. People around me specially work for tech companies got layoffs. Daily life don’t feel good economic😫 and things so damn expensive.

[@qwertyu-o8o]

假設你經濟衰退失業了，你會用僅餘積蓄去投資放大放倍賺取生活費？還是套取現金去坐食山崩直至花光為止？這是一個好好的題目😅

[@dnnmon99]

Just ditch cash.

[@normanfung7124]

Global economies became States driven. Firms aren't supposed to do well unless Federal expand balance sheet. So nature of things changed radically since 2000. Rules changed.

[@lunasea301]

有個極大問題係 ， 就算長線都要搵個好位買， 以家隻隻股票PE 極高； 就算巴菲特都會沽apple 食糊； 我覺得吾沽最小都要用option hedge , 減息週期未試過有好嘢

[@jeffreylam3943]

多謝阿豬嘅分析，如果可以，想請你加埋QE嘅考量入去。2008年同2020年兩次股災都係靠FED開printer印鈔救市，開足咁多年先至造成近日美股All time high。就好似分析咁講，五十年來8次衰退，各自都有唔同嘅conditions，當然大家都心想「美國佬一定搞得掂」，但如果個泡沫一爆，好可能係要計埋上兩個depression (開printer買時間返嚟嘅債)，一次過嘔凸

[@whirlpoolbook6730]

I would not expect an avalanche in US. For sure, there is almost zero chance for US to get out of debt. As long as US remains in power politically, and financially, the party is still going on. No one will care what will happen in 50 years or even 10 years. Politicians try to get the most while they are in position. I do not think US will pay the price- breakdown soon, or in 10 years.

[@sfmarine5824]

d 動畫好正 !!內容簡單易明！ 欣賞

[@fongruki7553]

講得十分持平👍，某d kol係到講已經觸發咗薩姆規則已經係一定係衰退緊，可以完全不負責任咁係到9up

[@calvinchoi]

佢地要 noise 啫, 唔講跨張D , 邊有人click 入去啫

[@ronchilling1]

Really like your explanation of model overfitting

[@calvinchoi]

長線睇升, 美股黎講係啱, 港股就食屎, 20年可以原地踏步, D 錢仲衰過放銀行收息

[@henryng1402]

多謝你的專業分析。

[@chunyuling]

你同我諗嘅一樣, 個Sahm Rule就同聖經密碼一樣, 將發生左嘅事用電腦喺聖經入面搵Key words, 搵到就當係預言

[@shanheng9171]

你的黑臉法則都好准啊，100%

[@cliffordchan8370]

理性分析😊😊

[@followip4492]

好充實的分析

[@12vDc01]

過去美股平均年升10%，代表將來美股都可以做到？美股之前狂升很大程度係瘋狂發債嘅結果，但美債已經喺爆煲邊緣，梗係坐定定等佢爆…

[@zeroling1192]

分散投資, 長短通殺 長就揀慢速穩定增長, 短就揀波幅大炒上落

[@chunkitLeung1991]

豬豬真係令到我學到好多野，股市最緊要有自己獨立思考，唔好人做乜你做乜先真

[@dtsai1584]

Thank you, Ah Ju, for sharing this informative video!

[@XiaodongWang-qt9oy]

Because economy is dynamic

[@Kingking-so9wf]

分析有理👍

[@user-pm2xg5rv7c]

好中肯既分析，高質分享👍

[@Bettykihk]

長線投資👍🏻

[@michael11246677]

Happy weekend 🤍 Thanks for sharing ✨

[@koolam5158]

簡單易明 多謝阿豬

[@Coco-tf3hv]

exactly...始終sample size好細, 我記得係U讀statistic斬有講，最少30個samples 先Statistical Significance

[@tangfukman]

呀猪，永遠支持你。

[@sallychow6280]

完全同意你嘅想法。

[@npbwhalest-vr6rb]

Thanks for your information 😊

[@XiaoXiaoChuxubao]

Peter Lynch: “Far more money has been lost by investors trying to anticipate corrections, than lost in the corrections themselves.”

[@許師爺]

支持阿豬😊

[@FamilyCheung-kc1pw]

分析得非常之好

[@pamelachow9754]

睇片時見到S&P呢半年升左咁多，有點後悔無早D學早D買，正正諗住等佢衰退，跌返落低位再入；點知你之後就解釋左，錯過投資嘅風險，高過遇到股災/衰退風險，同埋之後可以average down，即刻解答左我嘅猶豫🙇🏻‍♀️多謝！

[@Totowoo2020]

多謝阿猪🎉

[@samchui9246]

非常有邏輯性 支持支持

[@kalok5804]

長線係最好😂

[@MooreY-ns1ms]

衰退 ! 是必然… 準備肅條!! 自強唯一 !!!

[@holiday258]

你說話風趣簡潔易明，頭腦清晰，令我得益良多👍

[@gwenjuju3853]

最近才看到你的頻道，阿猪，請指点下，長期投资的話，SPDR Gold shares (GLD) ,可以考慮嗎?還是 VYM 好D?

[@holau9119]

經濟成長與衰退，都是正常現家，警覺而正常生活。各位好運。

[@tmling9417]

Super Micro Computer Inc 417.41 USD -130.23(23.78%)， intraday 跌成咁，真喺跌到有d 驚.

[@北极光-m4l]

今日😢最低395

[@michaello6756]

多謝你咁比心機將真正既分析深入淺出咁分享出黎，只可惜多數散戶都淨係會聽自己想聽同自己聽得明嘅答案，搞到呢個世界永遠都係財演財自L當道

[@lamlam1242]

用時間先可以將舊錢變大！但係呢個需要持久嘅心理唔係個個都可以做到。

[@debbie7037]

短線交易, thanks 阿豬 😁

[@winson8317]

請問美股而家走勢如何？

[@kawaileung2523]

巴菲特賣apple揸大量現金.又係咪睇衰退?定係滿足而家美債既收益

[@123fps3]

可能係apple太貴

[@AndrewLee-dx1fm]

thank you

[@patricklai8107]

會長期持有有價值嘅公司股票，呢個係咪一個好嘅方法？

[@1234567655343]

早排聽完拆倉故事後做左個實驗,將d 長倉股票賣一d 再入番。 雖然帳面上有So但事後review由放到入番既過程同心理壓力一d都唔細, 佢落又唔知係落完, 升番d又會覺得方向未清楚而唔入住,患得患失, 等等。 作為老散諗落如果有下次都係唔郁好過郁, 如果壓力太大就調節下倉位買個身心健康。 最後呢次既部分收益變左Patron 既subscription :P

[@AhJu]

Haha 多謝支持！

[@manuschan2638]

I find what you say to be very reasonable and objective, I hope you would consider talking about rental properties investing in the future

[@willnggg1981]

very good point

[@kodunny5159]

以小弟經歷，經濟衰退或者股災，都係不可預估，97 之前有邊個知索羅斯會做乜；2008 之前你諗都冇諗過，甚至唔識咩叫次按；2020之前更加唔會有人知會走隻武肺出嚟。但係其實喺呢三個年份之前都一直有大把人引用種種數據去估個市會跌，但係都冇一個估到，所以，小弟斷定目前絕大部份人對經濟衰退嘅預測應該都係不準確的，依家唔使做咁多嘢，坐定定等一個未知嘅原因發生吧！

[@eco2hk774]

"100%準確"夠搶眼，吸引觀眾，增加收入機會

[@kevincheung4017]

Really good tboguhts. Totally agree. Recently saw few Vidoe talking same content with u and they r projecting recession.... But I think ur advice is much more logical

[@樂樂-b3p]

現債券基金可入貨？

[@wilsonwong382]

係咪statistic入面既concept regime shift

[@HelloNg789]

已👍

[@ryanlai8951]

A matter of statistics

[@exterry]

我自己投資會諗：唔係升，就係跌。無跌，又點會有得升。除非停牌姐😀

[@shulau1106]

支持您 好睇過香港才演!!

[@yhlo4743]

Liked before watching 👀

[@愛德華-o7c]

十個有八個半會答你長線，但執行時就係短線。😂😂😂

[@happyfire88]

😂

[@5cm992]

心理質素要好好

[@yanp5701]

方法（股票）係長線，執行（買賣）係短線，無錯丫！

[@joyceto4467]

呀豬睇咗你幾年，真係好犀利！

[@l_wong]

Thanks

[@mingfung7777]

只是看到市面上的人消費力這麽弱就感受到早已經在衰退了 本人居住在三藩市

[@joelam4]

加州經濟差，很多巨企出走，將總部遷來德州

[@mingfung7777]

@@joelam4 係

[@mingfung7777]

@@joelam4 在加州做生意成本太高 政府的政策又令到治安惡化 企業離開加州也是正常的

[@tungtung8378]

@@mingfung7777 Harris made CA a crime state

[@jtse3980]

之前有个youtuber怀疑美国经济数据造假，因为他发现汽车销售的数据在两份不同报告中变动数据是反的，除去统计口径不一致，不排除这种可能，不能相信数据一定是真的，要结合实际。我美国朋友都说经济肯定有问题，但是数据一直向好就很奇怪

[@ychar001]

但如果長線在香港股市，咁就..........

[@jennychan1311]

我將本來係日本市場嘅MPF 轉去醫療版塊，想問日本市埸你點睇？

[@hugotse1836]

2，短線投資

[@Corpse4419]

請問跌幾多係股災，8 月頭算唔算？

[@waihengyong7165]

如果衰退 到底股票掉多少？20% 50% 90%。如何把所有钱买在低位？ 可以全仓 但不可卖完。

[@Kacalala-e6n]

Both 1 & 2

[@einnocho5209]

🙏

[@manyung1375]

呢個 Timing 適合做中長線 Short Put ? put 價,係覺得隻股好抵既入貨價 例如 NVIDIA 90-100 個市升贏錢 個市跌入平貨

[@chriswong901]

长线投资 + 短线交易

[@ngaiForrest]

美國可以繼續印錢

[@diyer1190]

今年40 多歲, 租緊樓有小朋友, 有一百萬 可以點投資好😢 求意見

[@SorChu-u9m]

港紙？

[@diyer1190]

@@SorChu-u9m 系

[@RustyCrowHK]

成段片講既大部分論點我都同意, 不過講失業率既關係, 早幾日鮑sir 講通漲2% 目標大致達到, 將focus 轉移至失業率問題, 你就會get 到呢個真係一個問題黎 😂

[@sabinachiang5048]

l

[@RustyCrowHK]

要比番個LIKE 比自己

[@greathorton]

想問人生踏入50，應該選擇短線投資還是適合長線投資？同時希望可以早點退休

[@iampig9924]

我想知有無個類似薩姆規則，被經過多次驗證，最後證明無效，但係之前有好多人相信嘅規則？

[@AhJu]

yield curve inversion?

[@LuChen-m8p]

是否每月定 量/價 買入，假如走低 額外增持？持有不超過十隻股票？假如短期暴升是否應該減持部份？若套現投資其他如收息股？買貴金屬？或存定期等低價再多買入？一竅不通求大神賜教、非常感謝🙏🏻

[@yukiw1185]

長線

[@hkshado2009]

11:51 Why not both?

[@wingotang8595]

A high quality analysis

[@wllee4125]

🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏

[@gauvainng7033]

报得出来就唔慌系危机啦

[@ivanwong1007]

請教一下作為一個長線投資者，是否需要定止損？

[@Monitor2023]

不需要

[@timmyau1476]

Description 寫左呢個rule 係2008年發明 應該係2019？

[@lsy3011]

都係個句、你自己本身無一套model玩法、你跟大圍投注、輸既機率一定大過一半、因為彩池是由機構搭建、可以隨時用來玩弄老散🤭。能夠公開比你測試的model 其實已經工效不大、我覺得反而是誘導你走入另一個陷阱。所以我每次看到某某教股的人、用大量數據去引證、看完當聽故仔還可以…

[@諸葛向東]

好似以前學嘅Data Mining

[@changmother8518]

如果62歲，應怎樣投資？

[@yuklunau1359]

經濟衰退已接近尾聲 繁榮已開始

[@tonymok9676]

如果失業率高過4.3%呢？

[@khuzaitkhan9504]

Correlation =/= causation

[@happyfire88]

我港股長線左三年😅

[@makehimobsessedwithyou6412]

i want both