$136,000 Price Drops Are Coming, Probably More! 2023 Canadian Real Estate Market

The Data doesn't lie! This week I drill down on Canadian real estate prices and where they will most likely end up in the near future using basic fundamentals and chart patterns including fibonacci retracements, mean reversion, head and shoulders, household income to house price ratios, and inflation data.
sources/links:
www.bankofcanada.ca/rates/rel...
www.cargurus.ca/Cars/price-tr...
www.statista.com/statistics/1...
www.tradingview.com

[@truthteller6743]

Again, looking at the 2008/09 US housing crash. It truly didn’t bottom till 2012. In this country it will be more extreme due to us on a five year cycle, not 30 year mortgages. I’m calling 2026/27 bottom. I’ll start looking late summer 2026. Sold my place in 2021 and moved into our Triplex. Downsized due to not wanting to be an experiment. My condolences to the vaccinated and the indebted.

[@bloodessdk6530]

I did the same, sold my place, moved in my 4 plex leaving for free. I refuse to take the jab

[@UnrulyJ88]

😂😂😂😂😂 best comment

[@buzz4208]

My condolences to the un-vaccinated and the academically challenged ( FREE-DUMMIES) 😊

[@davidkania3720]

Lmao double whammy

[@truthteller6743]

@@buzz4208 Who is academically challenged? kzbin.info/www/bejne/p6DadaqXjt1qrKssi=6rHKG86u-cz0KGs7

[@abahub6772]

I have been watching you and this space for a while and this is a banger of a video, Jon. Some cool ideas and ways of looking at things - should be interesting watching how it plays out.

[@Charlie.Willms]

Great video Jon. Love the data focus as always

[@faisal-ca]

Very well done Jon. Thanks for putting all the numbers and facts together.

[@Kadmos]

Everyone's a millionaire on paper. But once people start to sell and realize their gains, the people who sell late are in for some big losses in their paper equity. I'm surprised how resilient employment has been, but even if that stays strong, our wages suck. Once more people hit their renewal at these current rates, it'll collapse all the same.

[@Kjosh247]

Good analysis Jon, I was thinking to myself “Jon must be the life of the industry cocktail parties!” Btw, on a H&S break price target is taken from where the neckline breaks- which is only putting the target bit lower. And I think tech analysis has a place because it’s essentially a graphical representation of mkt psychology. Housing in Canada is speculative & greed driven (not as a utility asset) so for all the haters who says patterns don’t work.. good luck

[@georgetheophylactou5564]

With the yield on US and Canadian bonds only spiking higher for the foreseeable future because of China selling bonds and Japan raising rates we will be in for an extended rate hike. It will only get uglier.

[@alsmart7737]

Excellent video Jon. History shows that after asset price bubbles inevitably burst, they invariably plunge down to the starting point of the bubble. Most analysts will agree that the current Canadian housing bubble started in 2012. So in one of your next videos can you analyze how much the National Average House Price in Canada will have to drop to reach 2012 levels? Looking forward to that video.

[@jonflynn]

that would be insane, would like to see it happen though

[@roberthodgins8856]

Thanks Jon I appreciate the update.

[@igor-Light111]

Great, as always Thank Jon

[@banisingh8169]

Awesome analysis 🧐 Thanks 🙏

[@visweshkris]

Fantastic video. Great stats

[@golftownpro999]

Love the technical analysis

[@jooky87]

Great data analysis, realistic assumptions, reversion to the mean is always the long term trend

[@CoconutPatel]

👍🏼 great content as always

[@hoolala35]

This video should get more spotlight. REAL ANALYSIS instead of just talk! Thank you!

[@Kjosh247]

I read that some 65-70% of mortgages outstanding are renewing now thru 2025- if so over leveraged speculators are going to be finished. Food bank usage at record high while unemployment at 45yr lows? 2s10 most inverted, meaning the economy slamming into the wall is still to come (I think late summer’24). Traditionally Canadian unemployment goes to 7-9% in recessions.. What were people thinking buying at 11x income? In 2nd largest land mass with measly 40mil souls. No home (except bespoke estates) in Canada should ever have been above $400k (detached). Canada is currently living in a full blown LaLa land fantasy

[@saty.7]

It’s a sad reality. (Single family) Home prices in GTA and VC may never be affordable for avg Canadians!

[@Burboss]

@@saty.7 you might be so surprised..

[@jason19872011]

Excellent video.👍👍

[@kruby1165]

Great analysis, Jon! It’s always a pleasure to watch your videos.

[@jonflynn]

Much appreciated!

[@rachelk8368]

Do you think this will affect Calgary? If ON and BC is more affordable then less people will come to AB? Prices will go down? (hopefully!)

[@bilbobaggins4462]

Thanks for this Jon - super useful! Appreciate your purely logical approach.

[@jonflynn]

Appreciate the feedback.

[@princewilliamlam]

Well done, Thank you Jon! I love the chart, the trend and where it is going/ need to anticipate.

[@jonflynn]

thanks for watching

[@jimmyhat3438]

Your on your Sail Boat 👍 Your reports are perfect as usual Jon

[@saty.7]

Great video Jon. Keep up good work.

[@jonflynn]

Thanks

[@Apollobay1]

Hi Jon, thank you very for the data. Good job👍

[@jonflynn]

thanks for watching

[@Kjosh247]

Waiting for my invite to your yacht Jon! Never thought so many people (almost everyone frankly) would be sooo foolish. I used to get told off when I would question how any home in Canada could be over 400k. Mind you Toronto detached in good neighborhoods were 350-400 20years ago so no they’re not “worth” $1.8, 2.4m now. Equity is growth that has to have a foundation of value addition, productivity, improvements etc. equity on zirp fueled over leveraged speculation is not equity.

[@jonflynn]

Haha, just in the process of selling it but should hopefully be upgrading sometime next year considering luxury items will be the first thing to bottom. Thanks for the comment and will have to set up a special subscriber boating dinner event once the time comes

[@dougiep2769]

In the 70's guys a guy with a factory job could support a wife, kids, and house. Look at what they have done to our currency

[@jonflynn]

very true.

[@TwinsDragon3]

Great content, thanks for the putting all that together. Would be interesting to see graphed the CDN population growth on some of the R/E value slides.

[@jonflynn]

I've touched on it in the past

[@terryevp4084]

Great information Jon. Many Thanks as always...!!!

[@jonflynn]

Thanks for the comment

[@RP-xd5yg]

@jon This seems like time vs money game. Contractor and builders are slowing down on building new homes which eventually contribute to low supply, that triggers everyone to buy whatever is up for sale at whatever prices. How they are going to pay or afford it that’s whole different story, still people doing it. Specifically in USA now demand and real estate is going higher instead of slowing down

[@jonflynn]

it won't end well either way

[@dylanthomas7443]

Thank you, Jon. It was indeed funny why you started with 2014 as base. But it makes sense. I see that none of the advertised home prices have gone down in the GTA. I am expecting unemployment to skyrocket starting February 2024 and then what you predict will happen in your timeliness ie 2025. What do you think?

[@Welcome-he7hu]

GOOD JOB

[@RageandSig]

Outstanding information and over 12,000 subs is very well deserved. Jon, please keep them coming!!

[@jonflynn]

will do, thanks for the support

[@timjkinney3472]

Jon What interest rates are being used to calculate example currently 8.7* median income If the house price is five times median income in an environment of 3% interest rates for 4-year term Even at the same price if interest rates are 7% the actual cost of the house relative to income is several times more I agree there is likely to continue to see lowering prices for some period of time now that interest rates seem to have stabilized we will just see where that gets to Prices are coming down at current interest rates and since it looks like these interest rates will hold for a period of time prices will likely continue to come down However there are factors that are not likely to be priced into these 25-year-old models / graphs GTA continues to receive large numbers of newcomers to Canada and these numbers have apparently increased significantly beyond anything that we've seen in history. With all the talk about the stickiness of inflation we can't assume that prices will fall to 'norms' Reality is we don't know what the new normal will be

[@energiavadasz3328]

Nice office.

[@John-bq9jh]

Good research. What I didn’t hear was interest rates and how they figure into all this. Personally I do not like prices. I prefer affordability to predict where things will be. We are a debtor society who’s economy is based on debt. Without new debt our economy stalls. My worry is that we reached the max debt ratio with zero rates. Even before rates increased from zero house prices had essentially stalled. Even at zero rates there is a price point that is just unaffordable. If rates stayed at zero in perpetuity house prices probably would only be able to increase with wage increases. But. If rates did stay at zero inflation would be over 10% if not more annually. The net effect would be inflation adjusted house prices losing every year unless wages increased by 10% as well that will never happen as those millions of new immigrants and refuges will be happy to get paid much less. I’m just half way through a most concise and compelling book called “this time is different “ “ eight centuries of financial folly”. It is fascinating to see what’s going on today is exactly what has been going on for the last 8 centuries. This time is not different no matter what they tell us. In fact this has been going on since before the Roman times. It always revolved around the psychology of bubbles and debt. So those who forget history are doomed to repeat it.

[@althunder4269]

This was a great presentation.

[@jonflynn]

Thank you

[@j.e.d.parsons2901]

Hey Jon, great video. Question for you: how do you see this predicted price drop playing out with 1million+ immigrants coming into this country next year, along with hundreds of thousands of foreign students and foreign workers? It seems that most of these people want quality, affordable housing and most seem to be coming in to work service and office jobs, not skilled construction jobs. How does this massive number of new people not mean a massive increase in demand for housing and continue to drive up prices? Thanks for providing your thoughts @jon.

[@jonflynn]

lots of demand for rental housing that's for sure. People can only afford so much so we will have an affordability crisis rather than a supply crisis.

[@kajpaget3180]

Excellent reporting ❤

[@jonflynn]

Thank you!

[@markhunt5019]

All extremely excellent analysis. A couple of further considerations….. Wages are starting to spiral up, and are going above the government’s reported inflation rate. This will change the household income number as we go forward. 2nd, the graphs are presented as being rather symmetrical. I suspect that the increasing plunge will not produce symmetry. When capitulation occurs, there will be some panic and some runaway falling dominos, and, yes, this will cause overshooting for sure. Some of predicting a return to QE in order to prevent this. And, yes, there will be a return to QE for a while at some pt with the result that inflation will take off again. So, this is going to be a bumpy ride down, with some steep drops and then some _______ bounces for a bit. And one good note from the comments…. The various levels of government are not going to be able to continually increase taxes in order to pay for higher government wages. That is an extremely important develop to watch. At some pt, government workers are going to have to get proportionally less, but at first they will get more and cause the wage spiral. First to the trough will be advantageous. Late to the trough and the fight will be lost, and a disappointing settlement given.

[@2maw1wrimike]

You're cute. There's a bank credit freeze due to rates and prices just illustrated in the video. That means gov needs to spend otherwise we get a very long depression. Also, literally all of canada is old, broken, and gross. If we dont invest now you will lose everything, everywhere, by 2030. Maybe a few airports remain, and the new subway in Toronto. Good luck! At least we're an educated bunch

[@markhunt5019]

@@2maw1wrimike Government spending now makes every Canadian dollar smaller at an increasingly alarming rate. De-value the dollar more and inflation roars back. There will be no fixing the crumbling country; it will simply crumble. Unless we decide to sell a large chunk of it-I mean, in a much bigger way than the selling one piece at a time to new immigrants. At some point, an Alaska-like or Louisiana-like sale might be in order to someone who can actually pay and eliminate a huge piece of our debt. It would be interesting to speculate about what should be sold and please realize that none of the buyers will be Western nations because none of them will be in a position to buy.

[@johnryan1040]

Hey Jon, what are you sailing there? Looks like a 26 to 28-foot keelboat of '70s vintage. Where do you keep it moored? Sailing is the best!

[@jonflynn]

Hey, 1976 Tanzer 26, docked in smugglers cove NOTL. Just in the process of selling.

[@derekmcqueen4589]

Do technical charts work on housing market? I would thinking that the illiquid nature of real estate would change the emotional reaction which technicals are based on. This will be interesting erting to watch

[@jonflynn]

Thanks for the comment

[@theartofconcrete]

Foundation concrete contractors slowed down huge. Tower cranes coming down and pulling out. Lots of money tied up. I was told sales are down by 5 out of 10 realtor. The others pretty much lied until i asked specific questions then they said ya its slow. Odd that the realtors are keeping the markets inflated

[@DarR1299]

Well done mentioning the neckline and the potential measured move. However, we always have to keep in mind that it's not a sure thing when the neckline is breached. Although powerful at 80% probability, there's still a 20% chance of a draw-down not occurring. Moreover, Lenders, MBS investors, Homeowners and especially Politicians do not want house prices to decline. Those are powerful drivers in the 20% camp.

[@jonflynn]

Thanks for the info

[@saty.7]

Most of sub 2% mortgages are for renewal in 2024-2025, only after that the full impact of rates can be seen. But unfortunately people are still too eager to buy a house at any cost. Even if BOC announces that they will be PAUSING again the house prices will pickup for next 6 months…this kind of cycles will be too long to bear for people expecting house prices to return to somewhat affordable range!

[@chucknasty514]

People are rushing to buy because rental prices are now too much...

[@emiliyvandermeer9175]

@@chucknasty514yup! I’m looking to buy because I need more space and rents are crazy too.

[@jackalj8571]

The thing with a mean reversion is assuming it can continue to rise infinitely at a steady rate. Obivously this isn't feasible as fundamentals dictate there has to be a ceiling at some point, else the price would eventually hit 25 million for a small shack. It just not common sense. Thus a reset is in order in order to continue steady mean reversion over the course of decades.

[@jonflynn]

Thanks for the comment

[@agauvreau5510]

We sold February 2023 in the Montreal suburbs ,expecting price to go down in the second half of 23 , now we also think the bottom will be later, hard to time the market and also demand is higher than offer, that could affect our price scenario, your video bring a lot of informations that I consider in my estimation , good work and thank you !

[@DummMoney-rr1fi]

Wrong choice. Good luck

[@agauvreau5510]

@@DummMoney-rr1fi sold for $392500 bought now for $ 212000 , was right choice !

[@NovaIsland5504]

In the world of mortgages I am stumped. We went in about 6 months early a couple years ago. We locked in below 1.70%. Our friends went in a signed a variable mortgage and they were 2%. Claiming their broker said she would call if rates were going up and they would lock in at that time. They never have gotten the call or did they call their broker. Now they are well above their original payment. My question is, do brokers get a bonus/premium for “selling” variable mortgages.? What would be the reason for selling a variable mortgage when rates were below 2%? Thank you.

[@jonflynn]

I don't know if they get bonuses for different products but I know different lenders pay them different commissions

[@dinoa9608]

Great analysis. Not sure if you can apply stock market technical analysis to real estate, maybe to Canada as a whole, but when we get down to individual markets like Toronto and Vancouver - nothing makes sense no matter what analysis you use. I wish it were a bubble that would pop - but still not happening.

[@saty.7]

It’s a bubble, which may not pop at all. Too many people and too much money chasing few houses. People’s general sentiment should change in order to bring some sanity to house prices, but it’s not happening so easily.

[@chucknasty514]

They will keep pushing rental prices so we are forced to buy watch

[@sureshglobeit]

Niagara region houses on 1/4 acre plot of land. House constructed after 2010. What are the prices. 4 bedroom 4 bath

[@lakdev6297]

Home prices are extremely high, don't look at the sticker price look at the carrying cost 🤔🤔

[@bathtubrenew]

Would we have extreme cases in price reduction, what would cause this? Maybe an increase of inventory of 100-500% as many home owners dump their 2nd, 3rd and 4th home as their high interest rate, balloon debt is crushing them. Coupled with real investors will sit and wait till the bottom comes and as prices keep dropping no investors will jump in, also include the banks being very conservative with lending and appraisers that keep writing more and more conservative. How far will we drop? When owning is 20% cheaper then renting (is one bottom indicator), when the medium income can afford the medium house, (this is another indicator). Right now we have the top 2% income earners are the only ones that can buy a house, presuming that have no their debt and 10% down. This isn’t a housing market, this is an iceage, and it’s about to change. 12-16 months I see the land scape being so different people won’t even believe it, with the market pushing down continuously for 10 years until the wages meet housing costs at 3-4 time income to a home purchase, or unless the fed kicks the can down the road and lowers rates. But the probable outcome is the fed will lower rates as the market keeps falling, and they will chase the market as it falls, with falling house prices and falling interest rates behind, till the market bottoms out at 3X’s income, this would look to be around 24-36 months out. Either way the prices have to come down, the math doesn’t end up any other way.

[@marksmith6787]

I don’t understand that analysis. What about investors with a lot of money. The market doesn’t care about people.

[@antonburdin9756]

Our politicians are indecisive about housing policy because they are afraid of negative effects of serious housing downturn. However, such “ostrich” policy is unsustainable in long run and already facing multiple challenges. The Red Queen Effect: "Now, here, you see, it takes all the running you can do, to keep in the same place. If you want to get somewhere else, you must run at least twice as fast as that!" In other words - it takes resources just to keep the status quo and the amount of resources required is tend to grow over time.

[@bathtubrenew]

@@antonburdin9756 Great point!… “red Queen effect”.

[@bathtubrenew]

@@marksmith6787 You think investors will act when the market is burning? The market is turning and fast… don’t believe the FOMO BS!

[@raulsardinas2584]

it doesn't seem like this extreme situation you describe is ever going to happen, but the prices do need to come down at least another 30%. My household income is around 280K, and we can only afford an average condo townhouse in Mississauga in the 800-850K range. We would be approved for a 1.2M house but we don't want to be house poor. With this income in the top 3% we should be able to afford a detached and we can't even think about it.

[@briannorton5212]

Any insights on cottages maybe one day

[@cn3531]

if it does drop, it will be great buy opportunity. do you see the rent dropping? renting townhouse is around $3.2K per month With current risk free yield, assume 5% rental income townhouse worth $768K, so it may go down another $500K, since townhouse currently worth $1.3m but once rate cut to 0-1%, assume 2.5% yield it will worth $1.5m.. with rent increase, it may worth more I mean, if immigration is not going to stop and I don't see rent dropping. Do you think so?

[@macleanclassics]

Prices haven't gone anywhere north and west of the gta... lots of sold signs as well. You need a million to get in the door of anything decent.

[@see-it-for-yourself]

Great analysis and data, Jon! I think you should be Canada's housing minister

[@c00per69]

Jon I'd suggest humbly you go back to 1998 for the mean thesis. That was about the time real estate started truly inflating and by 2008 we were well underway to the first stage of leverage gluttony.

[@jonflynn]

wish I had the data

[@citizenm9590]

I was in USA during the last housing crash it took around 5 years to bottom out. This unraveling in Canada iw just the firsr few innings

[@jonflynn]

Thanks for the comment. Many people here thought we hit bottom after 10-11 months lol

[@golftownpro999]

Crazy fact I heard the other day... Ontario is the fastest growing region in all of North American... The whole damn continent

[@saugatools402]

We are bringing in over 500,000 Immigrants every year, not to mention the 800,000 International Students arriving every year. Demand will only become stronger.

[@charlesponzi9608]

Rough waters ahead--glad to see your boat is on dry land!

[@jonflynn]

lol thanks

[@rjkrjk8344]

Wait until the fixed mortgages have to renew which is soon for many of them. 😢

[@jonflynn]

yep

[@csp103]

1. Markets tend to return to the mean over time 2. Excesses in one direction will lead to opposite excesses in the other direction - Bob Farrell Translation?: Expect a 50% pullback from the peak

[@amgandhi2000]

Could you please factor in interest rate increase or decrease in your analysis?

[@jakethesnake8842]

Rate up, price down. Rate down, price up. Cheers.

[@timshammm]

I wonder how the chart would look like if you included pre-2015... timestamp 8:25

[@jonflynn]

yep

[@emiliyvandermeer9175]

I agree prices are overinflated. But how can a bubble pop when there is so much demand for housing?

[@jonflynn]

I guess it will deflate slower

[@davidkania3720]

Supply and demand bros will still say real estate to the moon 🌙

[@andrewb5412]

It has more to with psychology

[@bathtubrenew]

It have everything to do with “availability of funds”. Canada has 2.4-2.8 persons per unit, if this was 7 I would suggest we have a supply crisis, but the data doesn’t suggest this. 1 in 3-4 house are empty, 30% of all homes for sale are vacant. There isn’t a shortage, this is stagflation. And it’s about to get real interesting. And probably quicker then we think.

[@Kjosh247]

1989 to 1998 non PRs SHRUNK every single year- the much loved narrative of immigration won’t save this ponzi! 2022 of the million entries, 600k were NPRs- bulls can stuff that stat in their pipes & smoke it!

[@antonburdin9756]

There is no lack of expensive units. In my building alone, yesterday there were 16 different units for sale. How many families could afford 2 bedroom unit on leasehold land for 1.2 million? Neither my rent nor Airbnb could justify such ridiculous prices - how is that suppose to work?

[@davidkania3720]

@bathtubrenew great point your definitely right. Once people realize it will be a depreciating asset for the next decade they will dump. It will happen slowly then all at once

[@BentSmore]

even jon flynn cant afford a house he had to move onto a sail boat

[@jonflynn]

Maybe soon

[@JjJj-ev8pe]

House price in Ontario are very high no common sense. Bubble must pop .its long over due .give a change for next generation to buy affordable home .all MPs must stand up for affordable homes.

[@jonflynn]

I agree

[@NegatingSilence]

Rates have tripled since 2021. If you look at what the cost of owning is vs. incomes, nothing has come down at all. It just goes up.

[@TheMacroSlacker]

If banks hadn't intervened to prevent forced sales by extending amortizations well into negative territory, we would have seen real price drops in line with other inflation control. Big Canadian banks are the reason we saw a second wind in the RE market early this year.

[@jonflynn]

can't believe the prices have sustained at this level also

[@NegatingSilence]

@@jonflynn I can see a bit of downside from here, maybne, but 1,200,000 people added to the country in 12 months with the express goal of supporting prices is game over. They are willing to do anything to keep prices high.

[@IvansBikesBmws]

Wow

[@jonflynn]

yep

[@alanmcclelland5245]

I still don't see 'bargins' in the Fraser Valley

[@cherifhajebrahim4740]

thank you again for these informations!

[@jonflynn]

no problem

[@Cici1791]

Let's get sailing with Jon Flynn!

[@rickyou1358]

I think you told me once bottom could be by mid 2025! I hope it doesn't come later than that or before a good portion of my capital goes on rent !! either way thanks for the update Jon

[@ArZ00765]

Realtors “ There isn’t better time but now buy buy buy or the prices will go to the moon” 🤣🤣🤣

[@jonflynn]

they're like a broken record.

[@BellaBella-jw9ef]

2008 is a drop in the bucket compared to what we are going to witness. We were in much better shape back then. Debt is out of control. Fed, provincial and household.

[@sukhuttam3502]

I know it may sound bit off the rail but what inflation they are trying to control ? Economics does not always mean The Bears and Bulls, real estate markets and stock exchanges. All the consumer goods are still hanging high on the trees of inflation. Anyways, this story will never take a better turn jon, Story of a landlord - he takes rent $10 before interest rates hikes, Interest rates hikes and he becomes helpless to keep increasing rents on the edge of rising mortgage. And the tenant is paying now $15 and they are okay with that. I asked the landlord, if the interest rates come down and your variable rate helps you to bring the instalments down, Is he willing to bring the same rent down in the shadow of his mortgage. He told me , now i am helpless later i will be greedy. I asked him how this will work. Inflation will come down on papers and rents will too. He answered look at the economics of aviation industry before covid, after covid and Now . Thats how the real estate will look like for buyers, sellers, landlords and tenants.

[@rom4486]

$650k doesn’t sounds like average price in GTA .. maybe in Alberta

[@j.e.d.parsons2901]

That's Canada wide. GTA is way bigger

[@jonflynn]

definitely not GTA

[@user-ob4em4ge6c]

US home values are declining YoY, nationally.

[@jonflynn]

looks like they will crash and burn too

[@mrbbqlvr4274]

I don’t have a dog in this fight. I’ve been hearing of housing being too expensive for the last 2 decades which is a heck of a long time. Should it unravel in the next few years that would be something for the eyes to witness. So in your best estimate after the collapse, say 2027 going forward what do you foresee? Flatline?

[@jonflynn]

Yeah, I'm pretty sure we're going to see a long period of stagnant prices after we hit the bottom

[@InfinityIsland2203]

Knowing now that prices are more of a supply demand function from extreme immigration numbers, price drop should perhaps be re-calculated taking into account Turdeau will import 20 million migrants in that timeframe

[@WMcSnickets-xw5om]

When a 1800 square foot house in a decent neighbourhood goes back down to $450,000 let me know.

[@jonflynn]

I'll stop making these videos then.

[@MangoFlamingo]

Jon! US10Y is at 4.30+

[@jonflynn]

Will be interesting to see how high it will go.

[@MangoFlamingo]

@@jonflynn Bad fiscal policy, easy money that print from time to time. The rumor is USA Debt to GDP will go to 150-200% then 60-90%.. so 10Y US 6%+ and we have a normal curve

[@Kjosh247]

4.38 to 4.50 is decent resistance- I could be flat wrong but this is a fantastic lvl to go long the 10yr treasuries, TLT, 30yr futures or EDV My opinion, not financial advice

[@rcmp2005]

None of this makes sense. Whatever - maybe it happens. Maybe it doesn’t. But none of this even factors in that supply is just getting worse and worse. So people will sell their expensive houses and then what?! Everyone just becomes homeless and that becomes the social norm ?? Bottom line is that ppl need places to live. There is a massive shortage of places to live. And even more people coming to Canada needing places to live. All the while nothing new is being built. Prices will be soaring!

[@jonflynn]

the problem is too many own 3 or 4 homes and the rest own none. All because of cheap money.

[@leonelmateus]

thats the only way to go down niagara falls.. on a classy 40 fter yacht...

[@XG393]

It's not the cost of homes that's gone up, it's the value of our $'s that's gone down.

[@andrewb5412]

You shoukd talk to luke from the channel market mania

[@jonflynn]

spoke to him on the phone last week, we're gonna plan something for the future.

[@BellaBella-jw9ef]

@@jonflynnwould love that!

[@Mehmed317]

Jon all due respect where are you getting these numbers? I as a home builder can tell you something, 30% of home cost value goes to government taxes and levies, 30% of it goes to developers/land owners and 40% is builders cost,labour and material. Where do you see bubble sitting ? Take that $150,000 off and it won’t come from government tab. Do you think developers will develop or will sit for years on the land till things make sense or do you think builder like myself will take 70-80k out of my own pocket and make your numbers work. No nothing will happen. Why. Because there is demand and there are immigrants piling one after another ready to jump on any opportunity to buy.

[@j.e.d.parsons2901]

Yeah immigration is basically the one and only reason our housing prices are astronomical.

[@Pokerrr]

I hope it drops by end of 2025 hopefully 🙏 planing to buy my first condominium without any credit

[@NEXTIMEDRIVEAREALCAR]

COEMS 🤑🤑🤑

[@sanjeevmathur8603]

Where are the price drops? If something run so much, these small drops are not making any impact. Only buying become a bit selective

[@jonflynn]

it takes time

[@BellaBella-jw9ef]

@@jonflynnI don’t think some of your viewers are really understanding what you’ve just shown us 🤷‍♀️

[@rajatbhutani88]

watch for reverse of price direction once again this Fall. Bottom is Now!!!

[@jeffotoole4509]

Yep. Bond yield today on GOC 5 year is 4.20%. How does that tickle you? How about we talk about that being 5% and a mortgage coming into 7% or better? I guess Canadians didn’t have that in their bingo card.

[@NewYork0110J]

SOB Tiff is giving bamboo in everyone ass. He gave everyone oil before to make it easy.

[@jeffotoole4509]

@@marc37921 what happens when everyone does the exact same thing? What happens when everyone is pickled in massive amounts of debt? I really want to know. I imagine a for sale sign on every 5th house? A finance minister that questions democratic free markets. Could that have something to do with this?

[@Kjosh247]

Never thought so many people (almost everyone frankly) would be sooo foolish. I used to get told off when I would question how any home in Canada could be over 400k. Mind you Toronto detached in good neighborhoods were 350-400 20years ago so no they’re not “worth” $1.8, 2.4m now. Equity is growth that has to have a foundation of value addition, productivity, improvements etc. equity on zirp fueled over leveraged speculation is not equity.

[@NewYork0110J]

@@Kjosh247 at the sametime these rates are abnormal, fraud and robbery. Esp moving that fast in both directions by wrong policies and corrupt policy makers.

[@douglasthompson9482]

My hope for the next few years is for housing to market to continue to increase. I will be liquidating my real estate portfolio….

[@jonflynn]

Best of luck!

[@markz1013]

Or the bank will do it for you.

[@BellaBella-jw9ef]

🤣🤣

[@matthewsemenuk8953]

Bacon

[@jonflynn]

love bacon

[@MentionBiscuit]

I wish I would write LOL on these HSigma listings! I’ll have what these agents are still smoking!! These clowns are on one 😂

[@jonflynn]

yep

[@mikebowers7719]

Let the pyramid begin to fall 👍👍👍👍👍

[@jongsukim3514]

technical analyst will tell you that's one of the ugliest h&s

[@mrwarbucks9717]

Never gonna happen, look at the real inflation #'s

[@jonflynn]

thanks for the comment

[@ln9680]

Stop allowing Chinese investors to purchase!!