15x Isn't Real. Here's How It ACTUALLY Works - Better AND Worse Than You Think ⁂ Watcher of Realms

[@fastidious_gg]

THE BASICS (skipped and assumed y’all knew for time): 15x is applied to the SECOND INSTANCE of RNG when you pull. FIRST INSTANCE is what rarity the hero will. SECOND INSTANCE is [once that rarity is chosen] what hero it will be from that rarity. So it may seem obvious but the 15x DOES NOT affect your base chance to get a legendary hero in general. Only who that legendary will be once your RNG triggers a legendary.

[@Pdox3]

This was obvious after playing like a month, unless you arent quite bright. Maybe this video will make ppl cry less when they pull 1 lego and its not the one they wanted lol.

[@luebeckm]

Damn… that’s a ton of info. Thanks for putting in all that time to increase the player base knowledge. Keep it up!

[@fastidious_gg]

appreciate it! this took me a while haha

[@Drac7979]

Thanks for the all the math. It definitely helps u def stand the rates better and what to expect from non-guaranteed pull banners

[@eternal_light9382]

Thank you in advance for doing this video, because this single issue nearly made me quit for good when I understood how it actually worked vs how it appears it should work. Praetus and Ingrid come to kind. Also, Hatssut. At least I got hatssut, though. After spending the only amount of money I was comfortable with on my last legendary pull. Nearly 12

[@fastidious_gg]

All obscured rated and rng

[@cruwl1]

Love the data and community involvement on this. Would love to see this type of data for all the big banners. Poll the community after the banner, and put out a video similar to this. I think this kind of information is great for us to make good informed decisions on saving/pulling and spending.

[@Jasx_501]

Amazing breakdown and analysis on the rates man! Really appreciate being able to look under the hood a bit.

[@kazetP]

The true reason we have this video is Fasti pondering what are the odds he'll pull another Harz.

[@fastidious_gg]

the odds are 100%. don't need math for that

[@lorenczak]

I dig the deep dive. Nice work, Homie

[@fastidious_gg]

Glad you enjoyed it

[@Viceroy0187]

Thank you for this! You’re the only one backing up what you say with the math ….

[@fastidious_gg]

Cheers

[@saintssinners4945]

WoR log 28473-AD: Day 425: 11,353 pulls since I began my WoR journey. Gone hard on at least one of her rate up banners. I have yet to pull an Elowyn and my quest continues. At this point I have to ponder "am I destined to be Elowyn-less for eternity?" only time will tell.

[@DemonicEmperor2023]

Bro This is funny as hell but so beautiful yet so tragic

[@trevorkenny]

I'm with you

[@fastidious_gg]

Lmaooo Hope you get her soon ❤

[@beeegMAK]

Chances are you got basically every normal legendary, so nascent would be close to guaranteed to get her. If not im sure u will have a very high chance on it.

[@saintssinners4945]

@@beeegMAK close. I'm missing Magda, Magmus, Edith, Torodor and Morrigan from normal banners. I'm sure more will come before the next Nascent to off-set my chances tho. Luck of the draw 😋

[@Taranabas52]

Thanks for putting this together. Personally i am fine with the rates, the problem is that they made one of the most required heroes in the gane so rare. Adding more cleanse options will attemuate that problem immensely. When we get the Nissandei rework, suddenly it becomes a lot less frustrating to not have elowyn.

[@fastidious_gg]

hopefully nissandei patch + talula come soon :D

[@iliqndanov9859]

I have 34 legendary heroes. 1/3 of them are A1 or higher. For the 5 months of playing the only banner heroes i have ever got are Hex back in april and Ares.

[@MomchilSt]

Excellent research man!

[@manchild9814]

Great work.

[@ROKWrestling]

TLDR: The math ain't mathing. Firstly, thanks for all the statistics 🙏 secondly, this is exactly why I stopped spending any money on the this game, between rates not matching and the constant banner after banner. I not only saved tor elowyn but spent something a decent amount of money and got nothing...same thing on the second banner. Combine that with alot of the new talent being locked behind having these rare heroes and you get an easy equation "can't progress + frustration over boredom = quitting game".

[@lHumblefarmerl]

I’m also thinking about quitting soon

[@matthewhorton2156]

Never actually got a hero off their banner. But that's just rng. Just because you have an 18% chance v a 7% chance doesn't mean you will pull the higher rate, statistically you should pulling high numbers of summons get at least 1. But it's not guatenteed. So yes you may pull any hero Very well explained.

[@dbproductions1732]

I got my Elowyn when Ania first came out. I was so happy.

[@NobleVillian]

I remember before realizing that the rate ups were applied after the buckets were normalized across all legendaries. It was weirdly accurate when you did that, which makes me think the bucket disparity was applied post-testing and they used normalized rates for banners to hide this

[@fastidious_gg]

Normalized rate ups is a good way to describe it!

[@jaym5880]

Been playing since public release and is purely ftp. Elowyn was my second legendary hero (first being Crach 😑). I've only got a single copy of her on her 15x rate up and then 3 more times outside her banner. She's now sitting at A4(waiting for another copy).

[@fastidious_gg]

My first was Crach as well :)

[@jaym5880]

@@fastidious_gg perhaps crach was actually intentionally bad but secretly raises the chances of getting good Legos? 🤔

[@klencalade]

I don't do the Maths ..🥴 Thank you for doing all the leg work and making me feel like Patrick Star! 😂 Great video!

[@BoeCrane75]

As of today, I am on day 49, I did not know how rare some of these are. Got Torodor, Elowyn, Hex and Hatssut. None on any rate up's (tried with Hex but got him after) and have only spent maybe $60. Hope my luck holds out this weekend!

[@RICOFRITO]

I got Ellowyn when I was doing my dailies. I decided to summon once to get some more engraver's ring event and low and behold I got her !!! I almost didn't do a summon because I was saving them for another banner!

[@Rampage18320]

Wouldn’t every new hero added to the pool inherently dilute the 15x rate ups

[@fastidious_gg]

yes of course

[@Big_Slab]

As Nisalt would say…. Science

[@fastidious_gg]

CLASSIC NISALT

[@muddybuddy8390]

As a fairly new player, me and my friend havnt had this problem. We both got Elowyn along with other great heroes. Im thinking the longer you play, the worse the rates are. Or maybe its based off money spent

[@fastidious_gg]

sure or you are your friend are just an insane small sample size haha :D

[@luckyluk3865]

yo @fastidious_gg , as a relatively new player, who don't have lust, vierna or silas, which banner would you recommend going for? my account is really fighter heavy, and somewhat lacking in both mages and marksmen.

[@fastidious_gg]

full should you summon vid coming out in about 4 hrs

[@christhompson7840]

Do you have a rate % list for the Ancient Summons?

[@paulwest471]

Thanks for doing the math i wish i sat next to you in school 😂

[@trueamerican2716]

I know for a fact that I have pulled Silas, Vierna, Iovar, and Elowyn all on a 15× banner. So they definitely work to a certain extent.

[@Pyramanager]

Same, when I pull on character banners, I usually get them either first or second legendary.

[@CameronDunn]

What did you go to college for? Statistics? You have an impressive handle on so many statistical principles and do mental calculations quickly.

[@fastidious_gg]

Economics and masters in finance I wish I studied statistics

[@Mcdfr123]

Wait, people didn't think you had 15x chance to get a lego and it be the one advertised? I just kinda assumed it was 15x (insert % of banner hero chance), but the rate of getting a lego was not changed.

[@fastidious_gg]

It explicitly states in game the chance to get a legendary is not changed on 15x but some people miss that/dont see it.

[@Mcdfr123]

@@fastidious_gg Generally people who miss information, just chose not to go read it. 👌

[@timtoney9646]

I freaking swear to RNGesus if I leave this weekend without Silas or Arrogance. I am setting this forsaken account on fire. Especially if I pull some BS and get A1 Azhor, Durza, Kai or A2 Regulus and Aspan when I hit pity.

[@ultravozyk]

Let's say we have a pull of 100 heroes You need one specific hero Then 1 pull = 1% of pulling the needed one X15 banner means that you now have a pull of 114 heroes, where 15 heroes are the one that's on the banner 114 / 100% = 1.14% to pull a hero from the banner

[@fastidious_gg]

Yes that is NOT how it works.

[@fastidious_gg]

Logically that’s how it should make sense. But given the varied rates of different hero rarity classes and then no 15x specifically being applied to the Rare Legendaries, it is nothing like that. That’s the point of what I’m explaining in the video

[@ultravozyk]

Cool, looking forward to watching the vid! wanted to give it a try before hearing the right answer =)

[@Pdox3]

Lol whatta stupid theory.

[@fastidious_gg]

@@Pdox3 the general idea is actually how even weighting would work. But that’s just not how they do it in this game :/ It would be if there were 100 heroes with even weight 100, the boosted hero with a 15x should then have a rate of 15. So rate should be that weight out of total weight (99+15). So 15/114 or 13.16% … but this ain’t how it actually goes down because nothing in the game is evenly weighted :/

[@lHumblefarmerl]

This makes me want to go back to Grand Chase mobile. At least they are more hero dependent compared to gear dependent. Plus their events are much better than this poopy maw event

[@SweatyChicken1]

Anecdotally, I don't see Valkyra in the rare bucket.

[@fastidious_gg]

over the past few months, I have done at 100k summons for viewers. imo she seems rare bucket now. but of course this can't be proven for sure.

[@maverickoverlord735]

I'm a simple man. If it isn't guaranteed, then you can expect a shafting..😅

[@trevorkenny]

Been playing for a long time now and still no Elo on my account.

[@kingpm3586]

I wonder if Moonton will ever be transparent with these drop rates

[@fastidious_gg]

so do i....

[@RayDHerron]

I would have to think they would NEVER be that transparent. They really just need to keep figuring out ways to get players spending $5000+ a month to keep spending to try and get what they want. As far as the other 99% of players they will come and go .....

[@fastidious_gg]

@@RayDHerron I think they could full disclose rates and not see any loss in revenue. people already know it's uneven. the transparency would be a great move in terms of goodwill

[@RayDHerron]

@@fastidious_gg I totally agree but my experience from playing many pay to win games, at the end of the day I have NEVER seen the decision makers trust their customers enough to be truthful.

[@cligato7]

The only part of the summoing rates i dislike is the rarity buckets within detemining the Legendary you get when you hit one. Nowhere in game are the "rare" heroes designated as harder to pull. The games leads you to believe you have the same chance to pull Elowyn or Hatssut as you do Anai or Regulus. It's the same with lords (laya/morrigan) but at least you know its more rare to hit a lord on blue/gold summons. I get the idea you want to make your special heroes more exclusive but then, imo, you have to communicate that. It looks deceptively shady when i look in game and i see a .46% drop rate on a laundry list of heros but that's not actually accurate information.

[@fastidious_gg]

Of course. I completely despise it.

[@cligato7]

I appreciate you making videos like this tho, it helps to actually know whats going on. Even though i don't believe the rate up (my own personal bad luck bias), it's nice to see how it shakes out math wise.

[@thesun3548]

Ive always thought Moonton was playing fast and loose with their rates.

[@jpwynn7075]

Most of the time, if I spend money on the game, I'll get a legendary in a couple of summons. Feels like there is a pay to play algorithm.

[@diegomarzo4001]

To be honest I can see and understand why they do not share the exact rate, basically they will put a lot of effort to balance everything, do the calculations that make sense for them and everything, and then I could come and copy all the values and do a game without needed to think about anything what means not investing the time and the effort and that translate into a lot of money.

[@fastidious_gg]

Rates are not some special proprietary formula leading to the games success...

[@diegomarzo4001]

@@fastidious_gg obviously it doesn't lead to success, but it would be a decent size task that you don't need to think about

[@fastidious_gg]

@@diegomarzo4001 a large of amount of games share this info. Moreover it wouldn’t be a lot of work. All the numbers are already there in the file. Only steps are making them visible and formatting the display

[@diegomarzo4001]

@@fastidious_gg if they are in a file that can be accessible then obviously they could share

[@fastidious_gg]

@@diegomarzo4001 that’s how the rates exist in the game. All heroes internally have their specific rates store on each banner. All they would need to do is make this visible publicly instead

[@darkki94]

It's still bullshit that on a "rate up" when you pull a legendary there is an 80% chance that you didn't get the rate up hero . My account is literally stuck everywhere because I'm missing Elowyn ! For almost 350 days i have never pulled the rate up lego on a normal 15x banner, only on 2x&15x .

[@fastidious_gg]

Yes the rate up is too weak or it needs to be better explained how weak it really is so people understand.

[@darkki94]

@@fastidious_gg literally all my good heroes are from 1+1 or random spooks .

[@thestigglet]

During this Salazar banner i pulled 2 legendaries in one 10 pull! It was Chrach and Abomination! Such a bummer

[@gkitty99]

I know it's a little of topic but I'm also tired of going to full pitty on 2x banners. 2x 15x hardly seems better than a plain banner most of the time. I swear the game rng somehow knows if you are a spender and waits until you spend to start to work just enough to keep you from rage quitting

[@kif1re]

I'm more confused by this Diablo looking ARPG ad that prerolled for Watcher of realms? Anyone have any comments on that? Like where is that gameplay at? lol

[@opticgamer3731]

Elowyn dropped for me during the salazar banner

[@justinrobidoux1]

I got her on a 2x divine during her 15% banner ironically

[@HaLP-halp]

Ratestidious

[@fastidious_gg]

Always

[@vuong6431]

Even you have 15%, there is 85% left 😂

[@ayozeh2278]

Manipulating the rates in a gacha game where spending money is involved should be ilegal, easy as that

[@fastidious_gg]

in many countries it is illegal not to disclose the exact rates

[@harroonxpe5049]

roger that i am playing for 9 month didnt even get silas or hex A0 till now :(

[@ncruz591]

Yeah I tried for pops got eldrr think next lego would been pope or jeera

[@Josudes]

What I don't understand about the whole "hero bucket" thing is the .46% chance listing under summons. The whole thing is just dishonest imo. All normal legos are listed as a .46% drop rate in the description under summons. Why even list it that way?

[@zeusdarkgod7727]

The short answer is no. Been summoning hard since b4 the last pratius banner and the amount of times I have pulled someone on the 15% up rate statistically is something like 1 in 400.

[@fastidious_gg]

you've pull 400 legendaries?

[@zeusdarkgod7727]

@fastidious_gg no, I asked chstgpt to calculate the odds on me, not pulling any 15% up legendaries after however many pulls I had made (stopped keeping track) and it said the odds were something like 1 in 370 or so. And this was well after I sank near a grand into the pratius banner. I'll seem to pull a legendary near enough every banner, up until the Silas/lust duel banner I can't think of a time I have pulled a banner champ b4 lucius.

[@fastidious_gg]

@@zeusdarkgod7727 so to be clear you pulled a banner hero on Silas Lust and Lucius. So for it so be 1/400 that means you would have had to pull 1200 total

[@zeusdarkgod7727]

@fastidious_gg Those numbers actually seem kind of low now that you're saying it since I save all my stuff for good ones and typically drop 3 to 600 average (pratius was a special even for me) so it seems to me like that amount of pulls is way to low, maybe I started counting late or only counting during the back to back banners. The TBI = piss poor memory, so I can't give you a great account as to when, why, or how I was counting just the odds gpt told me I'm not getting the pulls I don't know, you tell me, it commen to have dropped a few K and still only get 1 banner pull every 4 months or so while still pulling a legendary least once a banner (on average)

[@fastidious_gg]

@@zeusdarkgod7727 how bout this. track it for 3 months and get back to me. I think you will be shocked.

[@danielkrause515]

Haha nerds 🤣💪

[@fastidious_gg]

you betcha

[@strollygames]

Laurel --- almost 5000 summons and still haven't gotten her. is this normal? @fastidious_gg

[@fastidious_gg]

unlucky for sure but it is within the extreme lucky side of "normal"