2023 Home Sales Forecast & The Property Owner "Prisoner's Dilemma"

[@youngone1985]

Very smart guest. I’ll add, forced selling will get inventory up and wipe out the prisoners dilemma of sellers putting up their homes. Here’s the problem. Forced sellling will mean a recession and a recession will mean a deep recession. The last time the FED took this sort of action was Paul Volker and housing unaffordablity ended up just about where it is now. Interest rates went from 18% at that time to the 3% we saw a few years back. Stoping inflation does NOT bring price down. It stops them from rising and the FEDs target is 2% inflation. Wages keep falling further away from inflation, hence prices just as it has steadily done since the 80s. 85% of homes in the earlier 80s was one income. 85% of homes in 2019 was two incomes. That’s “household formation” for your ass. The only relevant question is can debt burdens be reliably serviced by the average worker on a long term basis. Does 8 year car loan give you a hint? Does talk about 40 year mortgages give you a hint? What business leaders, very smart economists (like this guy who I enjoyed), politicians, builders, realtors, and generally “they” are leaving out is that there is no where else to turn for MORE. No more women to educated and flood into the work force, no more buying power in terms of debt that must be paid back, no more boomer generation to rob through taxation because they out number everyone else, no more productivity (i.e. worker wages) that can keep up with the consumer paying back the debts of the business, the tax payer paying back the debts of the country, the credit card holder, the fools leveraging equities, the student loan borrowers, the future generations, essentially there’s no enough debt slaves. Slavery has always been productivity destruction lowering standards of living for all except the largest few masters. Actors motivated to find what they value drives up living standards and makes a state rich. A housing crash isn’t what “they” are trying to avoid or is what home owners should be concerned about. Living standards are crashing and accelerate downward. “They” know. Mideval peasants paid 25 to a third in taxation and never “owned” much. What is our real effective tax rate especially after sales tax? You pay off your house only to pay higher taxes or have the equity fall dramatically in a housing crash. The only way to win would be to become a feudal lord because the system needs more. More blood. This why is why KZbin pays the most for financial videos. It’s why the rat race and hustle culture is on steroids. The top is your only safety. All of “their” policies, deals, narratives, and causes is to squeeze the fuck out of you. Every fuckin drop of more that’s evading them at the moment.

[@triunegroup]

This was my first time listening to this Podcast, and I was most impressed. Impressed by the interviewer, his pointed questions, his ability to translate for his listeners; and most importantly impressed by the subject matter expert’s responses. The Title Company Economist came equipped with facts, with data to back him up, and with very little opinion. Great interview and podcast. For those listeners saying “all theory and no data,” they need to listen to it again, and stop listening to non experts.

[@cathypaz3555]

As a loan officer and RE Agent. This is a very informative pod.

[@blainreinkensmeyer3764]

best you get cardone capital to handle your real estate investments. If you want in, I can get you their contact mail.

[@anniealexander9616]

Interest rates aren't the only issue. People are saying we have lack of inventory. Thats not true. The issue is we have listings priced way beyond what they are worth. So they are sitting on the market. It will take time for sellers to be realistic about pricing. I just received my new tax assessments. I'm pretty much living alone in a 3000sqft home. I briefly considered down sizing. I went online and found lots of 3000sqft homes. The few homes that are around 1500sqft are priced almost as high as 3000sqft. Sellers are looking for an idiot. I'm mortgage free so interest rates mean nothing to me. It's crazy sellers thats the problem.

[@Jen_Tam]

Another great episode! There has been some great guests on this show recently - Jason Furman, Lance Lambert, John Burns and now Mark Fleming...amazing interviews based on data on the expert's perspective. Very interesting!!

[@blainreinkensmeyer3764]

best you get cardone capital to handle your real estate investments. If you want in, I can get you their contact mail.

[@brianadams6204]

The wife and I are starting to save for a down payment our goal is 20% if interest rates are still high when we reach that then we plan on just continuing to save till rates come down and if they don't come back down then we plan on paying cash when we get enough saved up.

[@matbob7249]

Worth listening twice. Lots of great abbreviations dropped here!

[@JaySkavz]

I think the Black Friday type of deal for sellers might work if it is locked in for a month. Ie if the home owner sells on x month, they can qualify for a percentage or two points down on next mortgage if they get one. (Thinking is this might be a good idea to be subsidize by the Feds,somewhat like opportunity zones)

[@lcbrianyuen]

Great info.. Looks if the new norm is here 😮

[@samyin330]

Great episode. Like he says... "we'll be good in the long run."

[@blainreinkensmeyer3764]

best you get cardone capital to handle your real estate investments. If you want in, I can get you their contact mail.

[@cathypaz3555]

Another informative pod! 😊

[@BPOnTheMarket]

Glad you think so!

[@stephanieharries7746]

Really interesting when my great-grandfather but he was a part of the I guess it was the 19th I don't know the 50 somehow and course I wasn't born yet but he got the stock when the overnight millionaires in Texas with an oil boom and all that he became a millionaire and then he became a multi-millionaire I don't know if it's two million not like a lot but too many and a lot of that was just from circumstances and and hittin he was a good businessman as well and he bought properties and he had all that Texaco stock and you know just shows we're all products of our environment and what's available at when we're alive and then also our Ingenuity and his case you know he's just a really smart man and made the most of his time thank you

[@lukem3067]

I know in my market right now you can build cheaper than buying. Also new builds are almost cheaper than existing inventory. When you see those two types of things happen at the same time, something is not sustainable there’s too much volatility and lack of customer sentiment in the housing market right now. It’s only lead One Direction capitulation question is how fast and how far

[@rangerdoc1029]

It's the opposite in my area. Prices are dropping on existing home listings, but labor & material shortages are keeping home building costs high.

[@lukem3067]

@@rangerdoc1029 crazy where do you live

[@MiguelAngel-ir3ck]

Long story short, the economy is based on human behavior not numbers .

[@Daniel_Trombonist]

it was mentioned that 30 yrs mortgage might not be the best way to finance your home. What is the better option? 15 yrs mortgage?

[@Mark-pb8kj]

40. The corrupt bankers just won't do it. 😂

[@jasmines.6325]

Home ownership % in other countries is way higher than U.S and Canada

[@archiejohnson9368]

It's funny... bought my home Sept. 11th, 2000... sold on June 13th, 2022 after finding the right one... so, yeah, I dated too

[@mravsolody]

Too much theory and not enough data

[@triunegroup]

His data was interwoven into his answers and responses. From my vantage point, he was very data driven going back to Paul Volker’s time, with bonds, inflation, mortgage rates, debt to income ratio, and affordability. This was packed with data, even if it were indirectly…and in most cases, data references were quite current/up to date.

[@fubarnow8907]

We’re happy with our home, not selling .

[@tyronetoliver4461]

First