2024 Kentucky Derby Contenders & Pretenders on HorseCenter

This week on HorseCenter, Brian Zipse and Matt Shifman move closer to the first Saturday in May and the 2024 Kentucky Derby. Your hosts analyze the prospective field in more depth by categorizing each horse into contender or pretender and which ones they see as wagering possibilities.

[@danielszydlowski3082]

Reminding you guys-- No jockey is any better than Johnny V at sitting near the front end and stealing a race !

[@robertlosasso4222]

I remember a jockey named Walter Blum who used to steal races on the front end .

[@georgepimentel3072]

THAT'S WHEN HE RODE FOR BOB BAFFERT AND HAD ALL THOSE DRUGGED HORSES LIKE MEDINA SPIRIT. AND AS A RESULT MEDINA SPIRIT WAS DQ AND BOB BUFFERT WAS KICKED OUT OF RUNNING IN THE KENTUCKY DERBY. THE SAD PART IS MEDINA SPIRIT DIED FROM ALL THEM DRUGS. I'LL TAKE THE KENTUCKY BASED JOCKEY HERNANDEZ OVER JOHNNY B. GOOD.

[@kevinfalk9495]

Made an impressive adjustment on Resilience that caught my attention.... Too bad he already had the gig on big Fierceness 👍👍👍

[@georgepimentel3072]

@@kevinfalk9495 FIERCENESS IS WAY BETTER THAN RESILIENCE...EVEN I CAN RIDE HIM JUST HANGING ON TO THE REINS AND THE HORSE WINS BY HIMSELF...NO SWEAT...NO JOHNNY B. GOOD NEEDED...

[@kevinweiss9678]

But longer races do things to front runners sometimes

[@robertmatijevich7808]

I love what’s happening with Dornoch. A couple months ago after his gutsy Remsen, the whole world wanted to crown him. He goes on to Win the Fountain of Youth at Gulfstream, has one bad race at Keeneland, with dirt getting kicked in his face, and now all of a sudden we’re supposed to believe he’s a bum. Fierceness has basically negatively bounced multiple times and yet he’s supposedly a lock?! Horse Racing is a game of value. Dornoch is a full brother to a KY Derby winner and I believe that while other horses have not have had their regression yet, Dornoch is poised to run his best figure yet. Trainer Danny Gargan has said that they were forced to ship late to Lexington and that he was tired after the Blue Grass due to missing a workout. He previously said that Dornoch wasn’t cranked up for his win in the Fountain of Youth. After the scratch of the controlling speed horse in that race, Dornoch did not get the exertion test there that he was supposed to. He will offer tremendous value in the Kentucky Derby with a big forward progression very possible.

[@dylanmaldonado3222]

Yeah but not many are actually writing him off. Pretty much all odds right now are at 2-3rd favorite

[@123Leeko]

@@dylanmaldonado3222 Agreed. If Fierceness is vunerable as a monster, Dornoch is the monster that was vunerable last race and can awake. No jockey I think wants it more and can win it like Saez. He is smart and sitting on a loaded canon if what Gargan says is true. His odds double digit like his brother. Don't forget his grandfather on moms side too. Way too much to dismiss.

[@user-cm9wm7tg2p]

Domestic Product beat Fierceness before and can do it again.

[@123Leeko]

@@user-cm9wm7tg2p Not betting a Ortiz brother is crazy period. take cata and Deomestic in boxes. Irad gets scratched on Repole last year, the irony, comes back and beats him this year. Johnny and Irad.

[@catherinemurray3743]

love you guys !!! thank you !!

[@crazyeyes6911]

Honor marie to place 100$ Strong Hold 150$ show

[@HorseRacingNation]

Why not bet ALL with Honor Marie exacta instead of the place bet? ~Matt

[@joseortiz6841]

I have Honor Marie, Fierceness, Sierra Leone & Chasing Freedom in an exacta; trifecta is too complicated with the rest of the horses, there might be a pretender sneak in ato show.

[@hankhaynes3701]

It used to be that Oaks Friday was Louisville's day at the races. Churchill feared that they were losing money, so Thurby was invented. Now, I propose on the Tuesday before the Derby should house a new tradition: Horse Center Hope Day. 20 + AEs still are winners, Zipse and Shifman are still geniuses with their predictions plausible and spot on. A parade should be held, stopping briefly to pay homage at every strip club within 1000 yards of Churchill Downs, travelling down Taylor Blvd and ending at the Berry Blvd White Castle, where our favorite prognosticators could clear the grill, being treated to the delicassy that is white castle sliders and Big Red. We all know after the Derby passes into turf history on Saturday, Brian and Matt's stock may not be soaring, so strike while the iron is hot, when everyone is still a Derby winner and let's show our admiration and gratitude forever more, with the Kentucky version of Festivus, Horse Center Tuesday, all the fun of a Derby Eve gala with the added benefit of intestinal distress. Thanks guys, great work as always. 😂😅

[@DiscipleofHim]

I second that.

[@HorseRacingNation]

LOL, Hank. Thanks for watching the show. Good luck with the Oaks/Derby.

[@philturner6642]

Yes..a Louisville resident and patron.. how about a free admission on one of those days.hell no.. what do you think about 130 bucks just to get into the infield on derby day... greedy bastards huh...

[@hankhaynes3701]

It's offensive. I went to 48 straight Derbies until health problems stopped me 2 years ago. I remember bitching when it was $25, which truthfully still seems a little high when you factor in $10 for a soft drink, $15 for a mint julep, betting lines that may be an hour lines and a bathroom situation that would be unacceptable in the slums of Calcutta. The worst thing Churchill does is how they treat the people that live in the area of the racetrack. Don't try to sell tshirts or bottled water in your own yard without being licensed by CDI. I remember when I was a little guy how we used to park cars in the yard, LeRoy Jolley and others stopping to eat Dad's barbecue and being stuck with boxes of tshirts saying Welcome back, Calumet Alydar tshirts, then later Summer Squall, Y'all (yes, we're slow learners). Now if we dared to attempt such capitalistic herecy, CDI would shut us down, we would risk criminal charges and even the possibility of losing our home, especially if we didn't pay tribute to the godfather. CDI wants it all and doesn't want to allow the people that keep it going year-round a cent. I remember when we got a form letter saying that our Derby box was being taken from us and given to a more prominent corporate partner. I was crushed, but my Dad was so upset that he never set foot on the Churchill property again. That's what kind of friend and neighbor CDI is. It's no wonder that neighborhood has become absolutely treacherous. It doesn't have to be that way, but CDI could care less.

[@hankhaynes3701]

Thanks, guys. I don't see how I can lose with the minds of Zipse and Shifman in my corner. Here's a bold, bordering on ridiculous prediction: Spit Box Cox runs 1-2-3 with Encino, Just A Touch and the fast closing Chasing Freedom. As the great Harvey Pack said, May the horse be with you (tossing racing form in the air).

[@lisacateyes53]

Sierra Leone!! Son of Gun Runner who is the son of one of my all time favorites, Candy Ride who was undefeated in nine races, set the track record at Del Mar in the Pacific Classic in his last race before being injured.

[@DiscipleofHim]

Yes yes and yes

[@georgepimentel3072]

SO WHAT??? SECRETARIAT WAS A SUPERIOR HORSE TO YOUR CANDY RIDE AND NONE OF HIS OFF SPRINGS WERE HALF AS GOOD AS HE WAS. LADY SECRET IS THE ONLY ONE I REMEMBER WINNING BIG RACES. WHAT OFFSPRING FROM CANDY RIDE WON A BIG RACE???

[@louisewatz9397]

I liked Candy Ride as well...had a lot of versatility in his projency

[@craftypromise7814]

You guys forgot about encino and mystic Dan .

[@joe56474]

If i do make a bet its gonna be on Stronghold across the board. For no other reason than i love the name.

[@yoyoyickityyo]

Post draw and race day physique will determine my final decisions but Catching Freedom is my first pick

[@johnkonley1421]

I'm going with History and throwing out forever young

[@johnkonley1421]

Back to the Basics for me

[@Deznutz6969]

I thank u now, ;lol If I get 10 -1 or better I ll be happy and shocked Forever Young is not your typical Japan horse ,his pedigree is more of a US horse then Japan. This horse is special.. GL to u either way ,it should be a fun derby

[@dylanmaldonado3222]

Until they beat me… I’ll be doing the same every year

[@philturner6642]

Keep in mind some of the bad flukey recent derby winners...mine that bird..rich strike.mage.i don't think any of them ever won another race...it could happen again.... unpredictable crazy race.. sure is fun though..

[@joseortiz6841]

I think Honor Marie is going to surprise everyone at Churchill Downs & shock the world 🎉

[@Au_Ag_ratio5021]

What is under thunder snows saddle? Burrs? Jacks?

[@kevin711ks]

Guys Guys.....Just Steel is a cinch. Ran 2nd behind a 2million dollar Horse "Muth"....Go to the Bank & Cash! Cinch!!!

[@brianmontgomery4193]

Muth isn't a super horse,baffert s best derby horse was besos that was injured if allowed to run which he's not...but.i do like just steel finishing in the money

[@johnnymatheis1018]

Nice show. I disagree with a lot of it, but you stated your cases well. After the slow workout for Forever Young today, I think most of us will toss that one, though.

[@robinh.3937]

Oaks?

[@johnmoeller2480]

Just a Touch is my key horse he was on a hot 🔥 pace in the Bluegrass behind Chad Brown's Rabbit 🐇 Top Conor

[@kevinfalk9495]

What's to keep him from chasing this (probable) 46&3 half, instead of hanging back with his stablemate? I like him, but, how headstrong?

[@DiscipleofHim]

For the record, I am playing Sierra 1-4 in a Super with ten others.

[@TheChattanoogakid]

That's going to be an expensive ticket

[@DiscipleofHim]

@@TheChattanoogakid 2880.00. This race is the big daddy.

[@jamessills5802]

I don't like Fierceness or Mystic Dan. They can't mix it up. In the Derby, you gotta be able to mix it up.

[@RockFreakPTY]

Do you knock Dornoch down because of his last race or the tactics that his trainer chose. He clearly didn’t like being hold back and lost the race being ranked. But even when he finally changed leads in the stretch he started to catch up with the this place finisher. If you let this horse run and be comfortable and he gets on a battle I really like him.

[@kevinfalk9495]

A very crowded field, too many similar styles. Could, but not likely.

[@PompetusDad]

Kudos to you mate. Trip handicapping is a great way to bet. Your analysis is clear and observant, compared to many here who are touting jockeys and other extraneous crap. Horses run, jockeys cant ride dead or tired horses. Some of these badboys are gonna run their hearts out for 6 or 8 furlongs, despite their jockey, trainer or owner. Trouble is the race is 10f. 😂

[@RockFreakPTY]

Horse is breed for 10 F and if they come out of the gate running Saez will be able to put him in a comfortable position where he’s not holding him back but he won’t get dirt on his face and he can be one of the front runners setting the pace. Plus he’s looking amazing in the mornings.

[@ralphpadilla9283]

According to the Downs of Albuquerque the entire State of New Mexico will not be allowed to wager on this year's Kentucky Derby. No explination given. I've bet every Kentucky Derby since 1972 when Riva Ridge won. Not sure where to go to place a bet if the NM Racing Commission doesn't rectify this matter.

[@frankaltman8789]

Thoughts on HONOR MARIE?

[@HorseRacingNation]

Watch the show. ~Matt

[@user-vr7yp5sv8j]

I had a close up look at Fierceness on a KZbin video. The colt looks devoid of conditioning and rather lean and small. I am aware that thoroughbreds come different shapes and sizes. But he fails the eye test in my opinions. He doesn't reflect the appearance of a colt strong enough to stay 10F. I wasn't going to include him in my wagers before and after watching the video I am even more convinced. If Fierceness records a top 3 finish, all my wagers will be losers.

[@Solittletimetoomany]

Post position and the break will be key for him. If he gets in any trouble, he is done!

[@patmcstuff671]

Resilience is improving at right time, still need to see final works and post positions

[@javiermagdaleno8345]

Yes. he is the fastest but, he's not consistent .wins one, loses one, wins. one loses ..one that is not good.✌️💙🏇🏇🏇

[@frankaltman8789]

Japanese horses have not come in at Churchill Downs from what I recall

[@georgepimentel3072]

THEY GOT A 0-19 RECORD...

[@frankaltman8789]

I know that thanks I am not betting the Jap horse either

[@MrGuitar-gn5ri]

Dornoch beats Sierra Leone! His last race was a workout and was forced to stalk to get the experience.

[@donimarshall3158]

The Only Race Sierra Leone Has Any Chance Is The Belmont Stakes,,,,🏰🇺🇸🇯🇲 Mr. KeenObserVatioN PhD,🇯🇲🇺🇸🏰

[@Solittletimetoomany]

So Brian thinks Mystic Dan is a Win Contender? He likes his speed but the latest high number was on an off track. Just Steel beat him by 4 1/2 lengths in the Arkansas Derby which he thinks is a Pretender. I agree with Matt on this one.

[@charlesbadrock]

I'll give you my breakdown now on the race I'm taking a stand against the FL Derby winner who will go off the chalk my top 3 horses are CF SL JAT my win horse is CF but I'll box all 3 in exotics and my win tickets will be on CF ñormally I don't bet deep closers in the KY Derby but this Derby is the exception 2 of my horses are deep closers CF SL the way I see the race running Isee JAT on the lead when they turn for home and if he has the lead in deep stretch he may hang on for the win now if he goes head to head with the chalk Fla Derby winner and they duel into the stretch that will set it up for my 2 powerful closers CF SL again CF for the win and CF SL JAT boxed in the exotics

[@austinthomas9068]

You’re going to come up empty, Fierceness is winning the Derby.

[@charlesbadrock]

@@austinthomas9068 IF he wins he wins that's why they call it gambling I'm taking a stand against the horse who will be the race chalk I see value elsewhere

[@Deznutz6969]

So u both say Forever Youngs a win contender but your afraid to back him?? Very strange to say the least . The horse has shown me far more then any horse in the US and I have ranked #1 in my power rankings..As for UAE horses this is by far the best of all of them . Derma was good and got clobbered so he did have an excuse. This horse just ran the fast final 400m ever in the UAE and he was geared down at the end. In the saudi he ran a 100 plus beyer and won on the wrong lead which exhibits his heart and toughness. He s pedigree is impecable and he can run any style he wants.. Im truly amazed how season handicappers are more in awe with a horse like Fierceness who ran an easy front end unpressured rail trip on a track that was favoring speed then a horse who has everything go wrong and still wins..

[@thomasgayer5621]

$100 win FIERCENESS

[@Billy-xi4xv]

110 beyer in fla derby. 12 points higher than anybody. He is working great. He is a standout.

[@donimarshall3158]

What’s Weird About The Kentucky Derby, Why Did They Name A Colt With A Filly’s Name, Is This A LBGQ Thing, A Colt Called””Marie”” Hidden Under The Title “” Honor””,,,,👑🇺🇸🇯🇲 Mr. KeenObserVatioN PhD,🇯🇲🇺🇸🏰

[@baseballeyeballs3126]

forever young japan in home only .....that dude has heavy american bloodlines

[@georgepimentel3072]

JOCKEY HERNANDEZ IS THE GREATEST AT CHURCHILL DOWNS...

[@donimarshall3158]

Sierra Leone Will Arrive When The Race Is Over Finishing Fourth(4th),,,,🏰🇺🇸🇯🇲 Mr. KeenObserVatioN PhD,🇯🇲🇺🇸🏰

[@donimarshall3158]

Sierra Leone Will Not Beat Dornoch Again,,,,🏰🇺🇸🇯🇲 Mr. KeenObserVatioN PhD,🇯🇲🇺🇸🏰

[@hearodmathem5702]

Dear all of my darling melded gorgeous unificed majestic fantastic powerful mighty grateful gratefully magesticaly glory fans this is hearod byerly turk matchem Godolphin Arabian eclipse darly Arabian alright Serra leone backwards grasp the concept arreis astrology enoel Christmas song noel noel born is the King good hu thank you fair well stay well be well thank you john johnny yohan polski thanks

[@timwalsh8973]

do you guys know the win on jockey and trainer stats. Can't find anywhere. seems nobody knows. betting horse blind. know won 5 races. run my math on this japan horse.

[@johnnymatheis1018]

Forever Young does have one bright spot, the trainer is about the only one from the Far East who had success on Breeder's Cup Day, which can be compared to Derby Day, but there is still the reality of its lesser pedigree than past Japanese Derby contenders who have failed miserably, and the trip and quarantine and his slow workout today, and the poor showing of UAE and Japan in the Derby. But just because I won't use him, doesn't mean he can't win. I've lost many more times than I've won. He will be an unknown quantity.

[@user-rq4gm9ut9g]

Adressing mr.t comments. I also like track phantom But hes not and i dont want him on lead. He and u mr.t should hope hes 4th or 5th behind fierceness just a touch dornoch t.o.password passing those down the strech hoping fierceness comes back alittle and holding off sierra leone. We both seem 2 like t.p.but i see it alittle different. I dont want 2 see him on the lead.

[@user-zt3hx1co8n]

I don't think you have a thing to worry about there.

[@GJT-bq3hr]

I see the blinkers as an indication he'll get out early and stalk instead of taking the lead. It is a question of getting the distance. What's weird to me is he only lost by a half length to Sierra Leone from the lead in the slop, yet everyone is convinced SL is automatic in exotics at short odds but Track Phantom is a complete toss. I've been wrong before, but I feel the same way you do.

[@user-rq4gm9ut9g]

Hi. I usually think blinkers put him closer .I hope not and don't think that's the reason. Something distracted him. Don't know. Think about it he was leading all the way except the last 50 feet but 3 horses past him. Perfect prep. He already had enough points 2 get in. Epicenter ran hard races b4 derby came 2nd alittle tired from campaign. Disarm a closer ran 3 times in 6 weeks Too much. T.p will be much fresher but don't want him on lead. Sometimes horses on the lead get bored and he is not as quick as some might think just because the racing form show him on lead check the fractions. To be honest I like 2 say this early even though he's working in blinkers and we're being told he might be wearing them I will be happy if all of a sudden he's not going 2 race with them cause that tells me the trainer figured out what happened in his little sub par race last time. Yr thoughts. And I hope mr. S. King sees this also.

[@user-rq4gm9ut9g]

Mr g. I haavnet seen a reply.​@@GJT-bq3hr

[@timwalsh8973]

everybody says dornach form is going backwards. heard didn't try win at Keeneland. don't think he will win it. can be in tri or super. if like dornach at all. Why hung on Sl. dornach. beat him when it mattered. expect him be up on pace too.Sl in. traffic a d in clouds.

[@timwalsh8973]

read didn't try at keenlsnf. allready best Sl..and did not need points.Sl. wanted and need points for connections. last 3 races Sl. ran 27 furlongs. pushing horse hard to get points. see him regressing..I like Track Phatom.my math says he can win it.boxing in exactas.might just wire field and not look back.conditionig thi horse for derby .hiding form is what my number says. have feeling won't be dieing down stretch..my number Saya. Steve good chance get first derby win. won everything else. like chance freedom too win it.nobody has track phatom in top 10. he's front runner win it. all cappers be😮 in shock runs 1st or 2nd. all picking horse won last race and got points. not handicapping the horses for a future win. handicapping past. all same betting just speed and pace don't. make a profit. never have longshots on top. chalk!

[@Deznutz6969]

Hell have a tough time wiring the field with need the lead types like Dornoch in the race, Fierceness will also be up there, this race screams closer IMO

[@donimarshall3158]

What About The American Champion Jockeys Don’t They Count Because Without A Jockey The Horse As Absolutely No Use, The Dodolphin’s Use The Best European And American Champion Jockeys When Racing Overseas They Don’t Use Their Home Base Jockeys, These Japanese Should Know It’s Not Only About Their Horses It’s Really About The Champion Jockeys In The Races Much Superior To Any Japanese Champion Jockey, Next Time Mr. Japanese Use American Or European Champion Jockeys Not Those Japanese Jockeys Whom Cannot Handle These Super Champion American And European Jockeys,,,,🏰🇺🇸🇯🇲 Mr. KeenObserVatioN PhD,🇯🇲🇺🇸🏰

[@georgepimentel3072]

OK YOU GOT A POINT WITH AMERICAN JOCKEYS BEING BETTER AT HOME THAN JAPANESE JOCKEYS COMING FROM JAPAN TO RIDE. BUT ANOTHER POINT IS WHY GODOLPHIN CAN'T WIN THE KENTUCKY DERBY IF THEY GET THE BEST JOCKEYS??? YOU DON'T MAKE SENSE.