2024 Market Update

[@retiredlogman]

In this section of Florida on the Gulf Coast there have been two obvious indicators of housing demand. The first is a build up of U-haul truck inventory as new owners do a one way rental to move down here. In a given area this could be hundreds of trucks. This is not happening this year. The second indicator is the number of roll-off dumpsters sitting idle. In recent weeks the yards of those providing them have gone from empty to filled up. Interesting cycles. Thank you for the informative video.

[@vraze1936]

2024 owner builder right here! Thanks Keith!

[@HowToBuildYourOwnHome]

Awesome! Good luck! Keep us updated.

[@brackxexpressionist]

Thanks Keith for sharing the macro with what’s on the ground… I’m going forward as Owner Builder for 2024 …

[@HowToBuildYourOwnHome]

Awesome! Congrats, keep us updated!

[@REALSPX2K]

Amazing take. I gotta say Keith I’m really impressed with all your content and knowledge .

[@kdubs3]

great advice about scaling - that can really help folks from getting in over their heads with budget.

[@davidzbowen24]

Building this year, forever small cabin, no bank. Thx for the input, feeling good!

[@HowToBuildYourOwnHome]

Awesome!

[@leapnlarry]

Sounds like very sound advice, i have watch many of the financial gurus videos about this years forecast, you have a very different experience to share, which effects somebody like us looking to build this year. We are almost 60, we have lived in an rv for the last 4 years traveling USA and canada, but now need a home base. It will be a small as possible, but many of the counties only allow over 1000sq feet or more, which seems huge to us. Larry.

[@PeteVera]

Thanks for the advice!! Just now found this channel and following ! Definitely something we are looking into!!

[@HowToBuildYourOwnHome]

Awesome! Thank you! Thanks for the watch and the comment.

[@kennycraig6870]

Thank you for the video. Building on my parents property this year

[@billdent7449]

Excellent advice and insight. I really appreciate your wisdom and all of the videosand you're willingness to share with us. Peace to you

[@HowToBuildYourOwnHome]

Thank you for the love and comment. Right back at you!

[@josephhervieux7374]

Brilliant. Thank you. Subscribed.

[@HowToBuildYourOwnHome]

Welcome aboard!

[@tzehr2617]

Keith, a year ago diesel was over $5.00 per gallon, it’s now $3.70, how much of an effect will this have on cost of concrete and land prep? Regarding US debt, we’ll soon be joining the ranks of the PIGS (Portugal, Italy, Greece, Spain) and austerity measures will be forced upon us. This will probably be world-wide as most of Europe will be in the same boat. When the west doesn’t buy, the rest will go hungry.

[@GenuineOptimist]

Labor will stay flat or go down. With less work, competition will be the best price. Keith.

[@terrillmel]

I appreciate your honesty. I've been scared to build because I'm afraid of deflation. But I recently decided that if the bids come back reasonable, I can proceed. If I'm getting bids that are off the charts, I'll likely opt to wait.

[@DallasTexasContractor]

Where are you building?

[@terrillmel]

@@DallasTexasContractor central Utah

[@terrillmel]

@@DallasTexasContractor Central Utah.

[@brackxexpressionist]

It’s the real and genuine forever family home… Tks for affirming that aspect

[@anthonyesparsen7776]

Great advice here !

[@HowToBuildYourOwnHome]

Glad it was helpful!

[@ericrollins4607]

Really good content, subscribed.

[@VictorStudio_1]

Good advice. I've always thought building in modules makes sense.

[@MorningClarity]

Real Estate is a LOCAL game/market. Keith is in Utah.

[@HowToBuildYourOwnHome]

This is true

[@bhbaker220]

Where are you located? Activity in greater Houston area is still blowing and going. Just drive by Builders First Source and see all the lumber bundles ready to be shipped.

[@anthonyesparsen7776]

Great advice here thank you

[@HowToBuildYourOwnHome]

You are so welcome

[@GenuineOptimist]

I like this honesty. How many builder shows can use banana split and enchilada in the same post?

[@goldenspearhomestead8961]

Great information Keith. I wanted to know if you are in Arizona and if so have you heard of a program in Yavapai County called the "Home of my own".

[@HowToBuildYourOwnHome]

I have not heard of that. Please share

[@NK-ic6yt]

On average, across all trades, knowing from your comment that mechanical trades are more immune to work fluctuations and hence their labor rates are more stable, what is the % reduction on labor rates you see in bids submitted to you? Do you expect/experience labor rate reduction (more competitive quotes) from the same trades you had used during the busy times (2020 - 2022)? Thx

[@stevepailet8258]

it is a good reason to look at how you wish to build.. do you put in those 10000 foot wire jobs with low voltage just because you can? Do you put in oversized (priced HVAC) systems That many installlers do using rule of thumb or do you invest in a great exterior envelop so you can down size the equipment. Plumbing wise do you do high end fixtures (which actually continue to cost for maintenance or do you use more builder grade that can be changed out if one desires. All things to consider.

[@NK-ic6yt]

​@stevepailet8258 don't follow. Did you try to answer my question or you posted a reply by mistake?

[@stevepailet8258]

@@NK-ic6yt seems to me that one who decided to build should looke at things you want to put into a house. Do you want to build a mega mansion should one look at a modest building so that you as a self builder/ contractor would be able to live in. In spite of the state of the economy. yes various trades are going to negotiate lower rates while some wont see much reduction.in what they charge compared to normal pre covid times and rates

[@web-craft]

This has been my philosophy EXACTLY.

[@HowToBuildYourOwnHome]

Thanks!

[@chrisw9451]

I saw some numbers that showed 1.7 million homes under construction in the US, so I'm not sure I understand why you would say construction is down.

[@raginroadrunner5038]

Where do you go for modular build plans?

[@anthonyesparsen7776]

OMG a 1.5 build selling for 600.000 wow sounds like a big loss

[@JamesG1126]

Finding skilled labor that is available soon is nearly impossible. The good ones are booked for at least the next year to 2 years. If you want to build now, you need to perform the labor or hire expensive hacks.

[@IPVDC]

Interesting. This video implies that house prices are poised to go down in the near future as a result of reduced labor costs. While deceleration in price growth is quite common (i.e. 2022), sustained decline in house prices is quite rare (i.e. why 2008 was so exceptional and broadly painful). I see the larger macro risks (US Debt, a major pending post COVID reset of commercial real estate and the election year), but big looming clouds hang over all financial decisions if you look up hard enough... I mean if US defaults the effects are going to be wide reaching and almost impossible to prepare for (kind of like a "falling" ocean sinks all ships, I guess). Isn't the residential construction market positioned well near term to add needed volume to the market and take advantage of the dramatic reduction in willingness for existing home owners to move? Last year there was an amazing amount of competition for the record low number of real estate deals completed (accompanied by an increase in home values, generally speaking). This has been the standard explanation of the (unexpected) resilience housing prices in the face of rising interest rates. What is it that has changed that will spark reduced home values in 2024? In my opinion the only plausible things that could reduce home values would be either reduced demand for homes or increased supply (reduced costs would either encourage demand or increase profitability, baring some external change in the market). None the less, we plan to start construction on a (small) home this year accepting the macro economic risks (that always exist, but perhaps there are more now or they are worse... and could get us... but would have gotten us anyway), hopefully we are able to secure higher quality subs at a lower price if the phenomenon Keith is describing is taking place where we plan to build!

[@utpharmboy2006]

man i hear you..... in the end we just want good subs at a fair price for our modest build. like cars, im not paying over msrp

[@slimm951]

I just submitted to planning. It will probably be at least 6 to 8 months to start building. I need to import a lot of dirt. How do you feel about late summer to fall 2024 as far as “a good time to start building”

[@GenuineOptimist]

I see more deflation than inflation. That’s just my take. Keith

[@stevepailet8258]

figure it is great advice I have given the same to people on the net.. Build only what you need ... mega mansions are a total waste in todays market. Sure way to take a blood bath if you cannot pay cash

[@BC-cy3di]

With the amount of government debt maturing this year, I’m thinking more inflation is highly likely. They’ll just raise the debt ceiling and issue more money, just likely always

[@rheuss1]

Mills and factories are not going to let material prices drop much further from where they’re at now. The value of the dollar has already lost 30 percent so these prices are the prices.

[@utpharmboy2006]

materials are mostly no longer the problem. ive actually seen some pretty big price drops on a lot of it with tons of inventory. labor still tough

[@rheuss1]

@@utpharmboy2006 are you counting hvac, plumbing equip. , electric material and concrete also. Because I don’t see prices dropping much on those items.

[@utpharmboy2006]

@@rheuss1 no not those

[@robertmorgan2219]

What brand and model video camera was used for this video?

[@ddwalkerjr]

I'm seeing material prices going up...

[@whodat3723]

Got to love our president lol

[@HowToBuildYourOwnHome]

gotta haha

[@utpharmboy2006]

og grammy

[@Largepapa2]

Deflationary is not really the right word for describing the value of a home

[@weekendhomeprojects]

Great advice. My grammy use to always tell us - "Get Rich or Die Tryin...Ga..ga..ga...G-Unit!"