Howard Marks | Is This Time Truly Different When It Comes To Market Cycles

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We have an extremely special guest who is a billionaire and investing legend, Howard Marks. Howard really needs no introduction, but if you have not read Howard's memos, you are missing a critical piece of your investing education. Howard has also written some of Trey's favorite books including The Most Important Thing and Mastering the Market Cycles, which they discuss in depth in this episode and much more.
IN THIS EPISODE, YOU'LL LEARN:
00:00:00 - Intro
00:00:14 - Has The Marco Landscape Became Distinct And Unique
00:03:48 - Is This Time Truly Different When It Comes To Market Cycles
00:09:12 - How To Balance Risk Without The Temptation To Time The Market
00:12:06 - Missing The Decline
00:13:12 - Is Howard Marks Seeing Similar Bubble Territory of 2006 In The Recent Market
00:19:51 - Oaktree Motto: Move Forward But With Caution
00:20:52 - 3 Ways To Increase Caution In Investing
00:25:39 - Becoming A More Defensive Investor As You Age And Thoughts About Bonds Today
00:28:55 - Howard Marks Thoughts About Bitcoin Today
00:33:40 - Cost Of Capital
00:45:31 - Howard Marks Evergreen Wisdom About Price And Value
00:52:20 - Does Howard Marks See The Market Weighted S&P500 As A Potential Risk To Retail Investors
00:57:37 - How Does The FED’s Recent Involvement On Corporate Debt Affect Oaktree’s Investment Playbook
01:01:13- Howard Marks Portfolio He Would Leave His Grandchildren
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[@TheInvestorsPodcastNetwork]

I had the incredible privilege of interviewing Howard Marks. He was very generous with his time and knowledge. We talk macro, cycles, bonds, and yes... even #Bitcoin. Does he own any? Find out here. - Trey

[@matejsvec4451]

It takes a strength of character to admit that you don't know enough about specific asset to create a strong opinion. Respect for Howard.

[@BR-joking]

I know we can find it online, but it would be great to link his letter. You lead off celebrating it, praising it, so maybe provide a link to it in the comments section. Everyone should read it more than once. Nice interview, last few interviews have been top notch

[@littlestockguys7290]

are you based in LA/OC?

[@Mcllwain]

Given the current economic difficulties that the country is experiencing in 2023, how can we enhance our earnings during this period of adjustment? I cannot let my $680k savings vanish after putting in so much effort to accumulate them.

[@kurttSchuster]

Well the bigger the risk, the bigger the reward and such impeccable decisions are better guided by professionals

[@eastwood224]

Yes true, I have been in touch with a financial advisor. With an initial starting reserve of $80k, my advisor chooses the entry and exit commands for my portfolio, which has grown to approximately $550k.

[@tonicruger]

I’ve been looking to switch to an advisor for a while now. Any help pointing me to who your advisor is?

[@eastwood224]

There are a lot of independent advisors you might look into. But i work with Nicole Desiree Simon and I have been working together for nearly four years, and she is excellent. You could proceed with her if she satisfies your discretion. I endorse her

[@tonicruger]

Thanks for sharing, I just looked her up on the web and I would say she really has an impressive background in investing. I will write her an e-mail shortly.

[@GrahamCan]

Nobody can become financially successful overnight. They put in background work but we tend to see the finished part. Fear is a dangerous component, hindering us from taking bold steps we need in other to reach our goals. you have to contend with inflation, recession, decisions from the Feds and all. I was able to increase my portfolio by $289k in months. You have to seek for help in the right places.

[@mykreid]

I think it's not always about fear, Sometimes realistic factors discourage people from reaching their goals in life. For instance, I've tried investing in the stock market several times but always got discouraged by fluctuations of stock value

[@cyrilmilton]

This is the problem! Most times people with little or no knowledge of the stock market try investing by themselves. It once happened to me, then I learned my lesson and contacted a US-based finance consultant by name Olivia Maria Lucas and everything changed. In in the first quarter of this year i made $370k and counting.

[@suziehovic]

Olivia Maria Lucas really seem to know her stuff. I found her website, read through her resume, educational background, qualifications and it was really impressive. She is a fiduciary who will act in my best interest. So, I booked a session with her

[@patrickwal55]

Am a fan of Howard Marks and this is a great interview! I so appreciate an interviewer that puts his guest center stage and avoids interrupting except to gently nudge the conversation on. Well done!

[@dennismorris7573]

Howard Marks is absolutely brilliant - the one-horse race story was great!

[@josephopiekun6364]

This was a fantastic interview. Thank you for conducting it. Most of the time I see Howard Marks in an interview, the interviewer is interrupting him or trying to get him to bolster some sort of political or economical agenda. This was a pure addition to knowledge.

[@TheInvestorsPodcastNetwork]

Thank you for listening!

[@nohopeequalsnofear3242]

I like how humble he is....never acting like a know it all. He admits he doesn't know what the market will do

[@NathanielLabitag]

Sir Howard's book entitled, "The Most Important Thing Illuminated" should be on every contrarians' top reading list! Thank you for this channel and for sharing sir Howard Mark's timeless wisdom!!

[@lorenzmuller3542]

Love the caution and clarity of Mr. Marks!

[@matt79de]

It always makes me chuckle when Howard says "The most important thing..." Great episode with greeat questions...

[@thaddeus46]

Best Howard Marks interview I have ever seen. You let him really detail his investing philosophy.

[@bellamarley9455]

Really good interviewer. No interruptions and very respectful. And asks super intelligent questions

[@SB-yq8uo]

Great interview. Very good interviewer who gets out of the way and let experience talk.

[@unrealspetznaz]

Best interview to Howard Marks, ever. Thanks!

[@Klaster961]

These guys with such guests are on a complete different level in comparison with other channels

[@sundarraman6206]

Superb interview. I am a big Howard Marks' fan.. Loved it.. Lots of wisdom

[@tunckar]

I can't thank you enough; it's been a long time since I've listened to a podcast with such a high level of information; everything said was incredibly insightful and enlightening.

[@cathyjennings5580]

Caution, patience, important investing... 😮 Thanks for your information insight .😊😊😊😊😊

[@TheInvestorsPodcastNetwork]

Our pleasure! You might also be interest to watch this: kzbin.info/www/bejne/opu7emSsisefbLM 🙌

[@MrKodsine]

Brilliant Howard! 1 hour of wisdom explained in a simple and straightforward way 👍

[@sheanathan3566]

Thank you Howard and Trey. Such sound wisdom in these times.

[@TheInvestorsPodcastNetwork]

Thank you for listening!

[@jcnw92]

Well done on getting Howard to talk about Bitcoin and crypto!

[@manosk1705]

I love listening to Howard Marks, I like this guy a lot and thank you for bringing you to your program

[@marcb934]

Very wise elaboration on the money market, interest rates and the FED.

[@chiawildy563]

Content is so good that I had to listen... for umpteenth times.

[@vitolazlo5767]

I just realized another one of The Buffett/Munger Gems. He is really a great person. The lesson I think is that one needs to invest with caution and understanding. What I get from this is that the long term investor who follows a good sense will come on top at the end.

[@mayacho4910]

Starting early is the best way of getting ahead to build wealth, investing remains a priority. Even in a downtrend, the stock market/crypto has plenty of opportunities to earn a decent payout, with the right skills and proper understanding of how the market works.

[@theresagarcia1218]

Courage taught me: no matter how bad a crisis gets, any sound investment will eventually pay off.

[@mayacho4910]

@@theresagarcia1218 You are so right. I know because my advisor is able to find so many good plays. My portfolio literally went from $300k to $1.1m last year (not counting withdrawals I made) all really exciting. I guess it’s the experience and better judgement.

[@mariahhayes5089]

@@mayacho4910 Hey! Please who is this advisor of yours? I guess success really means total knowledge and I hope he/she can help me get back what I lost. Can I have easy access to reach out?

[@mayacho4910]

@@mariahhayes5089My consultant is 'MARGARET ANN WARNKEN" I found her on a BBC interview where she was featured and reached out to her afterward. She has since provided entry and exit points on the securities I focus on. You can look her up online. I follow her trade pattern and haven’t regretted doing so.

[@mariahhayes5089]

@@mayacho4910 Access to good information is what we investors need to progress financially and generally in life. here's a good one and I am grateful. Found her website and it was really impressive.

[@blessed7fold]

Trey you did a fantastic job interviewing Howard Marks. You were the fly on the wall that you were supposed to be and only asked questions to keep the conversation moving forward. My hats off to you and you earned me as a subscriber today.

[@TheInvestorsPodcastNetwork]

Thank you so much for subscribing!

[@jpegcashflow]

this was great, you asked specific questions - thank you!

[@hanbowang3820]

Very smooth and informational interview, I enjoyed every minute of it

[@jameswalker366]

Thank you both. Excellent talk. 👍🏻

[@cathyjennings5580]

THANKS SO MUCH 😊😊😊😊 HIT OR MISS Investing

[@mimundodigital]

Great content! thank you both

[@marcb934]

Thank you guys. That was awsome.

[@louis940]

Great interview.. clear perspective and opinion on matters.

[@junzhang2087]

Great interview. Thank you.

[@spuddyflavorman3808]

Just came across Howard Marks, and the algorithms brought this to my attention. Very good dialogue. Very intelligent questions and answers Risk posture is heavily on my mind now that the summers are dwindling away in the full-time work arena. I wonder what Howard dialogue with his son around crypto sounds. New subscriber.

[@Bernoulliflyer]

Very well done, thank you.

[@johnkerner6553]

Thank you Howard Marks

[@josephtuang9775]

Great interview

[@blueshift12]

Howard is very kind to be sharing these insights 👍🏽

[@TheInvestorsPodcastNetwork]

Thanks so much for watching! Glad you found them valuable.

[@77magicbus]

Good interview. Well thought out questions and script. Thanks

[@TheInvestorsPodcastNetwork]

Glad you enjoyed it!

[@zm8866]

Great interview, subscribed!

[@zipi_zape9158]

Thank you, H. Marks

[@brainstormer2520]

3:48 Did Howard Marks essentially say it's different this time?

[@nohopeequalsnofear3242]

This man is my hero....

[@chadbailey7038]

Great conversation 👍🏾

[@TheInvestorsPodcastNetwork]

Thanks for listening!

[@hl3641]

You u please do an episode on one million portfolio contraction in details for young ppl? Thanks. Also, high Cc covered call writing to generate small cash flow during down and flat markets? Thx

[@user-gl4ij7vx4p]

Great video and good subject

[@TheInvestorsPodcastNetwork]

Glad you think so!

[@ehudklein]

great!!

[@robert.dillon]

Thanks for this free and valuable info Trey, such a resource, well done. Great interview.

[@thegamerboneless2864]

Besides Dr Thorpe, Anne collier, and of course buffet, munger and Ben, this man gave us some of the best tools to anticipate the cycles. Actually Buffet said at meeting once, anything Mark writes he reads and when he speaks he pays attention. Buffet doesn’t say things like this much about folk, he usually mentions The great Ben graham of course and his bro Charlie munger the great. Tell you what Cathy wood should’ve read his book before dumbing there Nvidia holdings, man I felt her pain 😢😢

[@mmm-cake]

Sounds too damn logical

[@thegamerboneless2864]

2021-2022 bonds was hitting almost 9%, everyone keeps a portion of cash, say in savings, I took a portion and laddered them, so every few months I could alway take the cash out with the interest and reinvest or put back in 4.1-5% savings and if it’s more then you can negotiate something favorable. As far as bitcoin, I do not mess with them, im honestly not even sure how to calculate them. I did throw some into BITO PROSHARES,BKCH, and DAM, I still hold them, they do ok. But I don’t know much about crypto currency

[@nohopeequalsnofear3242]

Everyone going into stocks is like everyone going to one side of the boat. The boat will flip over.

[@andreyb.1835]

Superb stuff. Thank you.

[@TheInvestorsPodcastNetwork]

Glad you enjoyed it!

[@mmm-cake]

Had I never invested or traded a single dollar in the market I’d be infinitely better off

[@RolfStumpfRailMedia]

👏

[@johnbirman5840]

Longer time spans 20-30 years? : - put it in don’t look again. Shorter time spans (Now and perhaps 5 years):- Price is what you paid: Value (of that investment high or low) is what you got. Very different investing plans. The questions then remains: What is the intrinsic Value of a company today vs 20/30 years from now? What is the intrinsic Value of a company Now vs 5 years from now? Index Funds for the long haul. Index funds for the short haul - IF fairly Valued. Much to evaluate depending on what age one is, and what are the goals? For yourself vs for your progeny? Two completely different scenarios - again based upon a time line. Thanks Much!

[@dillongroover227]

im way behind in listening to this, and when he talked about bitcoin i immediately knew. winder whatd he say now...

[@hamankooo]

49:25 50:32

[@jessyjames7508]

Marks is from the "old economy." This is the "new economy." Wait....did I hear that same idiom back in 1999?

[@kotamrajuprasad2742]

The interviewer has done a great job asking all important aspects of investment. But for older investors more elaborate discussion is required as these people sometimes have limited money at their disposal and ample free time.

[@TheInvestorsPodcastNetwork]

Thanks for watching!

[@justinbeghly1435]

Thank you Mr. Marks

[@singhal136]

Superb.Awsone.Cant thank more

[@robertvonbujtar4241]

Mr. Marks is one of the best. Thank you for that great interview.

[@GreenfieldPortfolioResearch]

congratulations for the interview. very well conducted!

[@Aamir13560]

Great Interview…. Thanks 🙏

[@Earej]

I wonder if I am the naive noob or he's the dinosaur when I listen to him talk about cash flows and discount rates. As if these things meant anything in today's world.

[@no_more_spamplease5121]

That's easy to answer. You're the naive noob. You're welcome. 😉

[@johnkolios9526]

Excellent second level thinking! I am always eager to hear what Howard Marks has to say!

[@nohopeequalsnofear3242]

Stock market will crash 90%. Bonds wont do that

[@claradutch5836]

Schönes Video, bitte, was ist der beste Weg, um Kryptowährungsinvestitionen zu starten und gute Gewinne zu erzielen. Ich habe recherchiert schon eine Weile und weiß immer noch nicht, wo ich anfangen soll...

[@claradutch5836]

@Naila Ma'at Ra Wie kann jemand einen erfahrenen Trader kennen, dem man vertrauen kann, wenn gute heutzutage schwer zu finden sind?

[@claradutch5836]

@Naila Ma'at Ra Bitte, wie kann ich diese Frau Kristen Sofia kontaktieren? Ich würde auch gerne mit ihr handeln

[@clayblythe]

Interesting to hear his opinion on Chinese equities when so many people are saying to stay away

[@pornstarpat]

Oaktree does own some Chinese companies. I don't think the short term noise outweighs the fact that Chinese middle class will balloon in the next 10 years as well china will be the biggest economy by 2028.

[@nohopeequalsnofear3242]

Cryptocurrency is worthless computer code. You like computers code? Hire a computer programmer

[@sebfox2194]

Google, Microsoft, and Facebook are also computer code. And they hire a lot of computer programmers, so that they can sell the code that they produce.

[@choski76]

Thanks for having this old rich dragon on the show who is starting to understand bitcoin, who doesnt have to worry about money to live well. He is somewhat irrelevant to many listeners because he is wealthy and wants to protect his wealth. He should be buying bitcoin and is lucky his son bought it for him. Plenty of accumulated wisdom but does he understand what defi will do?

[@matmaism]

Do you think the audience wants to listen to people that aren't wealthy on how to successfully invest? You realise the guy is a multi-billionaire & knows more about capital appreciation than you ever will, particularly with that arrogant attitude.

[@sebfox2194]

How do you think he got wealthy in the first place? The answer is by knowing how to make and accumulate wealth. His insights are relevant to anyone who wants to make money.

[@marksoberay2318]

Im sorry that example with the grandkids makes no sense...you are taxed on dividends, taxed when u liquidate and the kids cant wait 70 years they will be dead!