#348

[@JoanneLeon]

Great discussion on a really difficult and complex topic. So many of us (around the world) are in denial about all of this.

[@annienonmouse]

Should start a drinking game where you drink every time Marshall says "15 different levels"

[@chickenfishhybrid44]

"15 different lebels"

[@taylorjohnson8202]

As an American living in Taiwan, I wish the American posture in Asia would increase. Thank you for the continued coverage and increased dialogue on Taiwan.

[@linmal2242]

Taylor that is happening but is not as much in Taiwan for political reasons. The US is building more bases and strengthening ties in the Philippines, Japanese and many other partners. Also AUKUS and the Quad. This video explains more - kzbin.info/www/bejne/emm8mKR8rsqHm9k

[@seespacelabs6077]

Colby's preoccupation with metaphors is entertaining. 12-step walking and chewing gum with killer sharks and dragons.

[@templetonpatrick]

I would really love to get a response to this from someone like Peter Zeihan. I'm not an expert but I can think of about 5 significant differences between 1941 US and China today, all of which are catastrophic for China: 1) Demographic collapse 2) The growth of the Chinese economy has been based on debt and excessive construction. It's a bubble about to pop 3) China has no oil/gas resources and relies on imports 4) China can't produce enough food to feed itself, and it cannot produce enough fertilizer to maintain the croplands it has 5) China is almost entirely isolated with almost all of its neighbors actively antagonistic towards them.

[@JWPanimation]

PZ is hyperbolic when he talks about the end of the Han people. Even if China loses population according to predictions they will still have 600 million people. The most favorable scenario for China is to wait out the Ukraine war while developing Siberian energy with Russia and building up their blue water Navy. By this time TSMC will have built the new chip fab plant in the states so US interests in Formosa will be less threatened. US weapons stocks will be so depleted at this point the Chinese will have the most leverage if they decide on an invasion. I disagree about the usefulness of a blockade of Taiwan. The Chinese used this quite effectively after Pelosi's visit last year.

[@jeffreyschnedar8020]

I doubt this guy has been to China. The Chinese government overstates about everything. A significant portion of their airforce is composed of mig21 equivalents. They have lots of new toys but bread and butter is not on par with US military. And generals and admirals are ALWYS convinced they don’t have enough tanks, bombers or ships. Just a part of their job to always want to won overwhelmingly in every scenario. Any protracted war means China is blockaded. Unlike WW2 US can hit China’s industrial heartland with ease. US and USSR outproduced everyone in WW2 due to inability of Axis to hit industrial heartlands beyond Urals or on North American continent. But overall, any fight with China will most likely be a slobber knocking slugfest. US has not been challenged like this in a long time.

[@templetonpatrick]

@@JWPanimation I agree he is hyperbolic. But saying they're 1941 US is equally if not more hyperbolic. But raw population number doesn't matter as much as its composition: As they go down to 600 million people, the vast and growing majority will be in their 50s-80s, beyond productive or fighting age. The blockade scenario is also a best case for the US, because unless China strikes US bases first and starts a third world war, the US can plausibly stay out of it... Or rather stay out of it long enough to prepare for a worse case scenario. Who knows how long that would play out - months, years? Taiwan is certainly preparing for it. I just don't see how China could win a third world war scenario with all of the challenges it faces. And the longer they wait, I think the harder it will be. Not to mention the near strategic impossibility of actually capturing Taiwan: an effort that would be D-day times 20 or more and, unlike D-day, would be tracked by satelites and targeted by missiles.

[@JWPanimation]

@@templetonpatrick Agreed. China benefits most from logistics: 95 miles from china vetsus 3200 miles for the US. Plus knowing the Chinese a slow economic squeeze, poltical influence peddling, etc might win without firing a shot.

[@alexcipriani6003]

We are lucky if China maintains the status quo for the next few years. They can buy agricultural produce from other countries if they decide to stop trading with US and get rid of $ US is going to war.

[@danzwku]

46:33 who knows what Tropic Thunder line that from the looks of it includes a bad word that they're talking about? Lol

[@philmariop]

To win without fighting is best, To capture is the acme of skill - Sun Tzu; either the Chinese can wait or in-built demographics problems may cause an implosion.

[@jeffreyschnedar8020]

This scenario is very possible.

[@fangzification]

The demographics problem will not hit until 2049.

[@luckysslevin]

In a war game scenario it’s predicted that we can win and only loose 100 million people, is that a win?

[@ianmoffet5080]

In a war game over Taiwan, we lose about 3,000 they lose over 10,000. We lose two aircraft carriers and a few hundred jets. They lose hundreds of ships and their amphibious battalion is destroyed. I take your point but and this would still be a huge loss for us as well but it’s more nuanced.

[@alexcipriani6003]

You have to look at the recent elections in Taiwan before claiming they are refusing to unite w China and actively fighting against it. Taiwan president that was the main anti China voice in Taiwan and was not re-elected; it’s like Ukraine in 2014 when they elected a Putin friendly president. China minding its own business in Asia and one might disagree with what they do or not but the US invading other countries a continent away under the idea of saving them is just laughable. This is noting else but the raise of another power that can threat the US hegemonic monopoly.

[@MrDAHSIN]

I love how this dude talks about a war with China as if it could be fought without escalating into nuclear annihilation for everyone 😒

[@whistlingwind5900]

All of the wars that the US fought against nuclear powers were proxy wars which did not involve nukes. Based on this history, it is more likely that this pattern continues and that a war between China and the US also does not involve nukes, however it still could happen. There is just no guarantee that it doesn't.

[@johnm7267]

Exactly. And American hubris is fully on display here. In spite of being humiliated by the peasant armies of Vietnam and Afghanistan they still think they are unbeatable. China now has Russia, Nth Korea, Iran and Pakistan as friends and the number is growing.

[@danzwku]

46:33 who knows what Tropic Thunder line that from the looks of it includes a bad word that they're talking about? Lol