The Decline Of Usa

[@ilmelangolo]

Salve Piero, hai letto l'ultimo libro di Emmanuel Todd? Affronta alcuni temi che hai toccato anche tu, specialmente il piano morale. Molto consigliato!

[@Robert-we6co]

All US debt is denominated in USD which the country can issue as much of it as it wants. Historically, this was not the case for the countries you mentioned.

[@_________________________.___.]

lol no. the value isn't determined by whatever one country, the US says. not even an idiot would think that.

[@Robert-we6co]

@@_________________________.___. the value of what?

[@wberrey]

As long as the United States has the most powerful military in the world, that is the guarantee of the "strength" of the US dollar. No more discussions, please.

[@43124121]

We are not sure that the United States has the most powerful military in the world. The only certain fact is that the USA spends more money on the military than anybody else and it is more prone to bomb other countries than anybody else (even more than Putin). The USA has lost all the wars that it fought without strong allies (Korea, Vietnam, Afghanistan, Iraq) and the world knows it. So its military might is debatable. Like any other asset, ultimately the "strength" of the US dollar depends on how many people/country wants it. The dollar has been convenient for Europe, India, China and even Russia. They all have benefited from the US dollar. If the US government miscalculates and changes that cost/benefit ratio, the dollar could collapse quickly. The reason that investors are not running away from the dollar is, again, that everything is relative: no other currency looks attractive. I think that Europe is deliberately making the euro less attractive than it should be. The eurozone doesn't have the geopolitical ambitions of the USA and it already has the most expensive place in the world for labor and energy ilostat.ilo.org/topics/labour-costs/

[@maxosini]

The idea that the Usa is declining goes back 20 Years when Paul Krugman started saying so during the Obama administration. This idea was so pervasive that fostered the raise of Trump who made a simply assumpion: if America is declining… Let's make America Great again. Since the year 2000: Usa population grew from 282M to 335M. Nominal GDP grew from 10,25 trillion to 27,36 trillion Income per capita grew from 36.810 PPP dollars to 82.190 PPP dollars Innovation rate is growing too, so I don't really agree on USA declining economically. I strongly agree with your reflections about democracy, rule of law, modern politicians... which I find very enlightening. For what concerns Europe you seem to miss one of its Greatest problems: people in Europe are increasingly aging. The consequence of having more old people is that Issues like innovation, immigration, army/defence… are less and less supported if not openly opposed. These Issues are fundamental in deciding wheather a civilisation is declining or growing.

[@faustopioli]

I agree, but this is just ONE video, Scaruffi has already dealt with the topics you're talking about on his website. However, the economic decline of the USA means relative decline, because its share of GDP on world GDP has fallen from 30-33% in the 70s to more or less 20% today. Inequalities have also increased.

[@43124121]

I am not convinced that aging has much to do with lack of innovation. Switzerland too has an aging population but it is #1 in the Global Innovation Index, and South Korea is #6 (second "oldest" population in Asia after Japan). China and Japan are still doing pretty well. China beats everybody on EVs and is catching up with the USA in AI. And the vast majority of countries with low median age have zero innovation - they mostly produce emigrants.

[@43124121]

You don't mention that the EU population between 2000 and 2023 increased from 380 million to 450 million, that the EU's GDP PPP per capita in 2000 was $23,000 and it is now $53,789... The EU is famous for all its troubles and crises, but in the end its growth is identical to the USA's. Would you say the last 20 years of the EU have been 20 years of stellar economic performance? If not, then ditto for the USA. Meanwhile, China's GDP PPP per capita went from $1000 to $12000 (12 times more). India: from $400 to $1,400 (ten times more). Brazil is troubled country, right? Well, GDP PPP per capita tripled from $3300 to $10000. Surprise: Russia's went from $1770 to $14,000 (8 times more).

[@nicra536]

First of all, you should compare these data with those of other countries. The fact of growing in general is common to all countries, but countries like China and India are certainly growing more. But this in itself doesn't say anything. I don't have time to go into details here, but I invite you to look at the data on the number of engineers in Russia and China and compare them with those in the USA, which, unlike these two countries, has seen a growth in graduates in economics (😀) and law over the last 40 years. Americans are growing with finance, while Russians and Chinese with engineering. Then look at the data on life expectancy, look at the data on health, see how the world has NOT imposed sanctions on Russia. See how this country, which is aiming for Mars, is not able to put out a fire or protect its people from Covid-19. Something is changing for the USA, it must be acknowledged. Perhaps it will be saved by war, but the decline exists."

[@maxosini]

Hey guys, the video has 1300 visualisations, but... only one "like" (guess who? 😶‍🌫) Click on 👍 if you appreciate! 😉

[@faustopioli]

I liked too, I think they are not visible.

[@alessandrococuzza9686]

Si veda l'ultimo libro di Cyrus Bina sullo stesso argomento.

[@steveharris8620]

At one level, the US is just following a well-trod path. As Paul Kennedy's Rise and Fall of the Great Powers (1987) lays out for Spain, France, Britain across the past 500 years. At another level, what do you mean by decline (absolute or relative)? US is still the richest and most powerful, even if it's lead is not what it was 20-30 years ago. These factors can be measured with data. But the other frames discussed (democracy/moral) are rather more subjective. In either case, I wonder what the standards are?, across what time frame are they being assessed?, and against who are they being compared?

[@faustopioli]

Josef Joffe writes that the USA are a “Decathlon Power”, because they are not the strongest in everything but they are strong in everything: they are not the first industrial power but the second/third (first China, then Germany/USA, it depends on the year); they are not the first water power but the second (first Russia), not the first demographic power but the third (India and China). But then they are the STRONGEST military power by far, the FIRST energy power, the FIRST technological power, the FIRST financial power, the FIRST monetary power, the FIRST cultural power, the FIRST tourist power, the best universities in the world, lucky geographical position,…In short, when they are not first on the podium they always get on it! Joffe also writes that the USA are the “default power”, that is they are the power that all the others look at in the event of a strategic impasse.

[@43124121]

Yes, the USA "is" all those things but "is" also all the things that i mention in my video and that you don't mention. It's like saying only that my hiking buddy climbed a 4000 meter mountains (true) but ignoring that he has cancer (also true), and concluding that his health in excellent. The balance between the two sets of "is" used to be positive for the USA. Now i feel that it started being negative. I would love to hear what Joffe thinks today of the USA. His book came out in 2014. Back then, i too thought that news of US decline were wildly exaggerated.

[@faustopioli]

@ Absolutely, in fact I did not write that I did not agree with what you said in the video, my comment wanted to be immodestly complementary to yours, but undoubtedly the USA has been economically in relative decline for decades, it has a public education that is the worst in the West in decades, its population has big problems with alcohol, drugs and obesity and so on…

[@jestamang]

Very informative. Being from Southwest Florida, it’s a hollow and desolate wasteland with the art/music scene. Ultra MAGA with a median age of 66. No point in bands coming down here… Might be one of the worst regions for art to flourish…

[@robertorota3328]

interessante però non capisco il nesso fra declino geopolitico statunitense e vera reale scarsa democraticità del sistema USA, gli inglesi crearono il più grande impero di tutti i tempi senza essere democratici, la Cina si sta espandendo senza esserlo pur'essa...

[@fabiotonti3497]

se posso.... che fine hanno fatto tutti questi imperi non-democratici del passato ? pensiamo anche a quello romano una volta che si è trasformato in un oligarchia. quello inglese: a che punto stanno nel 2025 ? quello ottomano, quello mongolo, quello persiano, quello egiziano. l'essere non democratici non gli impedisce di formarsi e crescere (anzi, forse è una pre-requisito ?) ma se lo guardiamo dal punto di vista storico, prima o poi cascano tutti. e un impero USA non-democratico sarebbe l'eccezione e sopravviverebbe ad libitum ?

[@faustopioli]

È difficile fare previsioni di questo tipo sugli Stati Uniti, perché gli USA sono una novità storica, è la prima volta nella Storia che la potenza più grande di tutte è una potenza non interessata alle conquiste territoriali: in tutto il XX secolo gli USA non si sono annessi un solo territorio straniero e nella loro (relativamente breve) Storia non hanno mai posseduto colonie, a parte le Filippine, quindi gli USA hanno poco a che fare, da questo punto di vista, con le realtà storiche che hai menzionato, realtà che sono cadute per poi comunque trasformarsi. L’impero Romano spendeva dal 40 al 70% del proprio pil in guerra, gli USA sono attualmente sotto al 4%, quindi non sembra corrano il rischio di sovra estensione, come invece è accaduto a molti imperi.

[@keyboarddancers7751]

Demography?

[@simpinainteasy680]

Uncle Scam!

[@arstr3556]

In my opinion, the most important reason for the decline is the undermine of capitalism and free economy from the government. Capitalism is the greatest invention of humankind, which has brought so much progress in the world. If only education was free from government coercion, we would have conquered the universe by now!

[@faustopioli]

You probably underestimate a lot the role of States in the history of capitalism and democracy: without the powerful socialist interventions in the economy after the big crises of 1929 and 2008 capitalism would have continued to sink; the three decades of the European economic miracle (fifties sixties and seventies) were characterised by strong state intervention. The Chinese government (not democratic) has lifted 600 million people out of poverty in 40 years, the greatest economic miracle ever.

[@youthtworoad]

if the US government is what you think of as anti-capitalist then I simply have no idea how to respond

[@arstr3556]

No, you are completely wrong! It's the exact opposite. The crisis was a product of government intervention and regulations. China became richer when government allowed free markets to flourish. Countless examples of countries that went bankrupt from socialism and government intervention, most notably Argentina, Venezuela etc. Not a single one that has failed because of free markets and capitalism, on the contrary everyone benefits from it and get richer. It's mind-boggling to me that people hasn't realised that yet and find all kinds of excuses to undermine it! I am guessing it's because of envy of success...

[@faustopioli]

@@arstr3556 I talked about the risk of underestimating the role of the State, I didn't say that capitalism is not good. However, first came the crisis of 2008, then there was the "socialist" rescue plan, not the other way around. China is a “socialist” country. In the USA the welfare state counts for 30% of GDP, in Europe even more. The countries that have been most successful, not only economically, are those that have entered the sphere of influence of the United States and that have been able to equip themselves with a mixed economy, speaking in general, but the reality is really too complex to derive general laws.

[@kouka7221]

@@arstr3556 Lebanon failed and Greece almost failed because of capitalism lol what are you talking about? Not to mention all the african countries that cant fail because they couldnt ever "start" because of capitalism.