5 More Questions For Stephen Kotkin: Ukraine Edition

Recorded on March 3rd, 2022
Last month, Uncommon Knowledge with Peter Robinson asked Princeton Professor and Hoover Institution Senior Fellow Stephen Kotkin 5 questions, all in the foreign policy and history realm. Since then, the world has changed in ways that were unimaginable just 3 weeks ago. So we asked Professor Kotkin to come back for a second round of questions, this time all dedicated to one topic: the Russian invasion of Ukraine. And as usual, his answers are concise, incisive, and analytic. If you want to understand this crisis and some possible outcomes, don’t miss this conversation.
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[@litraturest.germain7468]

A true philosopher, and intellectual. A man so wise, and so humble. He is one that is to be emulated.

[@johnbanwell6391]

Kotkin and Mearsheimer are a million miles apart. Interesting.

[@Anthony-jo7up]

I've been desperately looking forward to hearing what Kotkin has to say about the present state of affairs with Russia and Ukraine. This should be very interesting. Thank you Hoover Institute and Stephen Kotkin!

[@shirleymason7697]

Thank you Peter for not interrupting him as so many interviewers do.

[@angieg9361]

Kotkins book shelf is my life goal

[@drum5ormore2]

Immediately, when I heard Russia had declared war on Ukraine, I began scouring the internet for a response/analysis from Stephen Kotkin. Thank you for this.

[@Drew070476]

Mr. Kotkin, could not a similar “sovereignty” argument be made with regard to Cuba circa 1962? Cuba wanted to enter a military alliance with Russia that would put Russian troops and infrastructure 90 miles from the US. The US did not tolerate this move at all and risked nuclear war to prevent it and then proceeded to apply crippling sanctions against Cuba for a generation. There was no talk about Cuba being free to choose its own military alliances. Why was the US response to Soviet troops in Cuba “acceptable” but the Russian response to a prospective adversarial military alliance on its border (i.e., a Ukrainian NATO) “unacceptable”? Any response as to why these events are not analogous would be appreciated.

[@tekannon7803]

This is Peter Robinson at his best and all of us who benefit from the vast wisdom and knowledge of Professor Kotkin. This is where academia shines brightest when we can go to people like Professor Kotkin who have studied the subject of Russia and authoritarian regimes and democracies, and enlarge our views on the complex world we live in.

[@j.walker6845]

When Joe Pesci talks geopolitics, I sit up and listen.

[@kibirkshtis]

Dr. Kotkin, if You read these comments, or anyone who knows You reads it, please let him know, he is the most interesting personality in academia and whole youtube to me, I never miss any video he speaks. Kind wishes from Lithuania!

[@shooter7a]

“There are decades where nothing happens; and there are weeks where decades happen” - Vladimir Ilyich Lenin.Dec 10, 2013 We are witnessing this right now.

[@ezequielstepanenko3229]

"war is a miscalculation" I think that's the best sentence ever spoken about war, it can pretty much be applied to every war of the last two hundred years

[@redcae1911]

excellent

[@d.st.2198]

I am from Eastern Europe and I want to live freely. The war in Ukraine is about all of our freedoms here. We’ve been through this so either the western countries agree to help us guarantee our freedom or we move to the west to be free, where we are discriminated against. I just want to live in my home land and be free to live my life as I choose. I don’t want to live in a censored police state where I can get arrested for speaking my mind.

[@eldan23]

Even if you don't agree with everything he says Mr Kotkin is an intellectual powerhouse. Thank you

[@Narrate918]

What a treat this was. I searched the Hoover Institution channel hoping that Prof. Kotkin would be talking about Ukraine. This man is a treasure.

[@Damo20]

Peter Robinson is one of the best interviewers out there today, always well prepared and with highly intelligent questions. Love Stephen Kotkin too. Such a winning combo.

[@robert_sovitsky]

Mr Robinson , I've watched many of your talks and can only say that you are truly a gentleman that brings out the best in every person you interview! Thanks for bringing such interesting discussions to all of us !

[@edward9862]

What a surprise! Thank you

[@davidwaxman2285]

Nations are allowed to form whatever alliances as they see fit. Monroe doctrine?

[@paigemccormick6519]

Supreme thanks to Peter Robinson and Stephen Kotkin--now, and for several years of information. I'm not a professional historian or thinker. I am an above-average, retired mom and business owner with a good, solid BA in 1970s liberal arts. As such, my active mind swarms with many ideas for which I don't have the quick pathways of deeper analysis. I set out to find trusted intellectuals on whose shoulders to stand. Thank you for including me in your reach. This is how we do it.

[@bryanwaitman586]

Uhm, you lost me the moment you suggested Joe is capable or interested in learning anything…you’re either lying or desperately hoping

[@farzana6676]

I love listening to Prof Kotkin! I wish he could debate Mearsheimer.

[@arfanr8228]

Waiting and hoping for this interview for the past few days since the invasion !

[@janiekcarney5482]

Great interview. Thank you for allowing him to talk without interrupting.

[@jamescampion2157]

Thanks to Peter Robinson and Stephen Kotkin. Since the invasion began, I have been wondering what Prof Kotkin would have to say about it ; now we know, with the marvellous clarity, historical knowledge, and sheer luminous insight that he brings to understanding all things Russian.

[@ferdinanddaratenas3447]

I'm not a liberal in any sense, but I really appreciate Stephen's opinion and everything he has to say. It might sound silly, but I wish he could be in Joe Rogan's show to reach more people.

[@jackiekjono]

That would be awesome!

[@Charliecomet82]

Don't worry, he ain't one, either!😀

[@Liberty-rn4wy]

He's a true liberal in the classical sense.

[@krzysztofzegan5661]

UK too was optimistic in August 1939.

[@KT-ei4sh]

I really appreciate the thoughtful perspective your discussion provided. I found this information to be very profound, myself being from Vietnam and a refugee myself. It reminded me of why I became a citizen of our country. I found it inspiring when you spoke about what the West should do to keep us strong and prosperous. Thank you.

[@njdevseddie741]

Now THAT study room is dream goals for me

[@kashdiscovers1050]

Mearsheimer vs Kotkin

[@paulbrimble8204]

Great Insights. Thankyou for casting light in this time of darkness.

[@DatKidJohnny]

Such an excellent talk. Never regretted spending an hour listening to Mr. Kotkin.

[@BaydhaboWarrior]

Kept waiting for this. Thank you, Peter. Thank you, Stephen.

[@jf7243]

I appreciate the acuity, depth of knowledge and humility of Professor Kotkin to acknowledge his misunderstanding of how rapidly Europe would rally to the cause of an invaded neighbour and overturn decades of slumber. Many thanks Mr Robinson for your most excellent interview.

[@newdawnrising8110]

This is an important lesson that everyone needs to hear at this time. Thank you both.

[@shirleymason7697]

I love to hear you speak, Dr. Kotkin. And even my husband does, which is unusual - he doesn’t have patience for many speakers.

[@patkarpf4386]

Outstanding interview. Thank you both for sharing your knowledge and insights.

[@aint_just_whistlin_dixie]

Thanks very much, Prof. Kotkin, for agreeing to appear again to address the current crisis. Am sure you're hella busy working on the last part of your Stalin biography & teaching, but your insight is way more valuable than what we're getting from the mainstream media magpies.

[@dmitrykazakov2829]

Finally somebody who knows and understands things he is talking about! Thank you both for this brilliant conversation.

[@themsmloveswar3985]

"My cousin Vinnie" is doing great.

[@asldfjkalsdfjasdf]

So how would the US react if Russia and China where doing maneuvers together with Mexico while starting talks for a military pact? Would the US lay back and just say its all fine and dandy? Or would they exhaust all diplomatic options first and then stomp Mexico into the ground before they join the pact to eliminate that possibility?

[@gagamba9198]

Nato expanded the security perimeter whilst doing two things. 1) In 1997 Nato and Russia signed the Nato-Russia Founding Act where Nato promised to not station nuclear missiles and their launchers in the new member states. Nato has adhered to this promise. Russia breached this treaty three times by failing to adhere to the clause where in respects the territorial integrity of nations and their political independence 2) Allied Nato partners did not redeploy forces east and establish bases in the east. Training occurred and allied Nato partners would deploy temporarily. But, really the numbers of Nato personnel, equipment, and the money budgeted kept declining for most members from 1990 to 2015. The number of German combat battalions decreased by 84%. The number of tanks reduced from about 2000 to 266 - not mothballed but sold. Only UK, Greece, and Poland were meeting their spending obligations consistently - the US greatly exceeding the 2% of GDP target. All the other countries followed Germany's lead and hollowed out. It was only after the Russian annexation of Crimea that troops were moved east. For example, about 5000 allied troops in Poland. Still, these numbers are small - a few brigades. These are not divisions and armies on the eastern borders. The main problem for the alliance was Germany, specifically Angela Merkel. Refused to meet the 2% of GDP target, undermined energy security by becoming dependent on Russia, raised holy hell when American sanctions were announced on Nord Stream 2, lobbied for the sanctions to be ended, which they were in May 2021, and nay sayed Poland's warnings and opposed pleas to move troops east. Merkel cosied up with both Putin (and Xi), putting business interests far ahead of security and the alliance.

[@ajclarke3978]

Mr Kotkin is such a level-headed thinker and speaker and is a welcome andtidote to the mindless hysteria you get from most of the mass media.

[@timty8224]

Like so many commenters, I too have been waiting for this man's perspective on the invasion. All of it met my expectations. I feel wiser, calmer, and all the more grateful to living in the era of Stephen Kotkin. Thank you, Peter Robinson, for bringing him back.

[@otehrani]

Brilliant…. We need this talk broadcasted across many other channels

[@Cronoviajero]

I can listen to this two guys forever. Thank you.

[@AZ-em6nj]

Incredible wisdom, thank you!

[@mikeroberts4873]

I like how he gets right to the point.

[@georgelord7651]

I was just wondering if you'd have him back for this

[@johnbollow5497]

Great stuff, Peter. Thank you.

[@flatoutt1]

this interview is really special and super important .one of the GREAT ones .

[@jf3715]

Yes! I was wondering what Kotkin was thinking about all this!

[@arlenenolte8475]

Such good intelligent discussion, thank you for doing this.

[@charlesiragui2473]

We need to stand tall and we need to negotiate. Great message. Thank you Prof Kotkin.

[@galt67]

Outstanding, as usual! Mr. Robinson, you are a fantastic, always prepared, interviewer. TY for everything you do.

[@sergeypanfilov3397]

thanks so much Peter Robinson for this great conversation with Stephen Kotkin :)

[@shirleymason7697]

I waited for this interview-- appreciating Dr. Kit’s knowledge and viewpoint.

[@howardlovecraft750]

Always up for an intellectual conversation.

[@tarekcompuworld]

As a uneducated man I appreciate how Mr Kotkin explains stalin and the current geopolitical situation so fluid and simple. Thanks.

[@lindamaxey3827]

I love hearing from Mr Kotkin, rational and knowledgeable.

[@jaqssmith1666]

i'm not sure about your bead in Russian strength, this really doesn't look like a full scale invasion. what they're using and who the troops are doesn't look right.

[@bobbyunavailable]

Without the video it’s like listening to Joe Pesci. Heck even with the video it’s still like listening to Joe Pesci! I mean this kindly - a very interesting interview. Thank you.

[@thegeneralist7527]

I love it. Lol! It is like Joe Pesci has a genius level IQ.

[@preethams1643]

Very true 🙂.

[@atomicshadowman9143]

He's a funny guy!

[@Eric-ot7en]

Honestly funny. However this is a very serious business. My sense of humour is kinda low.🤔🤔

[@armenalexanian]

Him sounding *exactly* like Joe Pesci makes this conversation way more frightening. Is he going to ask the other guy for some money? We need to get this guy to negotiate with Russia.

[@benfindlay6280]

Superb and enlightening Peter

[@silphy2677]

I would love 6h long tour through that beautiful library

[@jimhawk2557]

Refreshing, informative,and a great reminder to not allow fear to move us away from core beliefs ! Thank you !

[@kevinsavo718]

Thank goodness Kotkin has spoken!

[@MAM1000W]

Thank you both. As ever.

[@tomslade2683]

With exceptional clarity Stephen Kotkin points the way forward.

[@TheHandofJove]

Thank you so much for getting Kotkin for this!!!

[@simclardy1]

Thank you for the interview.

[@kirkchartier]

Thoughtful discourse

[@dr.edwardfreeman]

14:25 onward. I am disappointed that Prof Kotkin does not see the situation for what it is. Clinton often complained that history did not present him with a great opportunity. It did! And not just an opportunity, but one of the greatest challenges of the 20th Century. The demise of the USSR and the followed economic collapse of Russia called for a geopolitical plan; not unlike that of the Marshall Plan. The lesson of pre-WWII Europe was that if you keep your victorious boot on the throat of the losing party, all that you will get is resentment. Truman was a good student of history. The rummy-nose self-absorbed smack was certainly not, not even close. The Soviet people adored America, a however secretly. The post-Soviet Russian Geist was ripe for picking. Did Clinton implement something analogous to the Marshal Plan, (just a meager 120 billion sum in current value), Russia would be a democratic state by now and the best America's friend at that, not unlike the post-WWII Germany. Instead, he decided to bomb Serbia while indulging himself in the pleasures of oral sex. Are you at all surprised that we have Putin now and widespread anti-American sentiment in Russia? I am not.

[@turzaondrej]

It's always pleasure to hear Mr. Kotkin, I wish it was under different circumstances...

[@sampotter4455]

This was great! Thank you Dr Kotkin and Peter for doing the interview.

[@santafilipina9020]

My first time listening to Mr. Kotkin. Thank you for an uplifting message!

[@Test-en5oc]

Really great from Hoover and Prf Kotkin to come out this quickly on current events! Timely and informative!

[@mikeutube7888]

They knew by not negotiating with Russia to reach a deal on security concerns Russia would take military technical response. Russia said so in plain language. Posted it on TASS. Every reader knew. So the nailing part I think is over done. They’ve been saying it since November Russia will invade. They guessed for almost three months until Ukraine moved on Donbass. Even a clock is right twice a day.

[@littletime8849]

Thank You! Diligently studying history is so informative. Those who ignore lessons from history are bound to repeat it.

[@briteness]

This is easily the best analysis of the new war in Ukraine that I have heard. Dr. Kotkin couples deep knowledge of his subject with the ability to communicate clearly to people like us who are not specialists. Thank you both!

[@battfamily435]

Is it me or does this guy sound and look Joe Pesce? Good analysis.

[@RobBCactive]

It's funny the summary of the war 2 weeks ago shows how little progress the Russians made since. At least the Germans have found an alternative potential gas source now for the future. They'll have to emergency build LNG capacity however. Stephen's military analysis is brilliant, he clearly explained so much that is commonly missed. Yet the Ukraine army has avoided defeats and is pushing back. They may have cut supply to some siege units.

[@TheMechanic204]

Hoover Institute continues to crush it. Thank you all 🖤

[@germelinaobrien5277]

Thank you to both of you...dynamic, great minds.

[@Matt-zg8os]

I like Stephen a lot. But I wish he would have broken down each of Putin's arguments better. I would like to see a comprehensive rebuttal on every level. I believe it will go a long way to dispelling conspiracy theories.

[@anthonygray9888]

An hour well spent. I do not agree with Dr. Kotkin opinions in full, however he is intellectual powerhouse. I do agree long lasting states that do not allow opinions or discussions of local and national concern are weaker, grow increasing tolitarian , rife with systemic corruption, will not growing pains, better cannot learn from their mistakes. The blame is place on victims of those weakened by these evil leaders.

[@user-oo8xp2rf1k]

I've been arguing this since....maybe kindergarten.

[@jamestalbert8358]

Great insights, great delivery. Thank you.

[@milosmilojevic3506]

Unfortunately, a lot of Western policies played role in this escalation. Foremost energy policy in big chunk of Europe, which crippled their economies and bring billions to adversaries. Maybe this will bring some change. Just frack it!

[@spencer5028]

Meirsheimer is the voice of reason and had been for decades regarding Russia

[@tuppercareyd]

Excellent discussion of such important issues. What are our values? What type of world do we want to live in? Well said Professor Kotkin

[@maristella287]

Thank you for this sensible evaluations.

[@Synthminator]

Great interview, thanks to both

[@Musiclover-uo2oi]

Brilliant. Thank you so much! I’ve been waiting for this analysis.

[@johnfunk7568]

Fantastic interview! Thanks very much!!!

[@wdhewson]

HI does the world a great service with such videos.

[@josephmills3864]

Everyone should watch the first interview a month prior to this 5 questions, where he was asked 5 questions. I'm glad he was able to clarify or correct his position from the first 5 questions.

[@luciusael]

NATO could have NOT expanded into eastern Europe and together with Russia made it a demilitarized and militarily neutral buffer region. This was not an option after the collapse of the USSR...?

[@jackdoesengineering2309]

What a great interview! It was a pleasure to listen to this. Thank you

[@shirleymason7697]

Marvelous! Thank you from AZ. Learning. Most enjoyable listening to Steven.