A Falling World: A Conversation with Peter Zeihan (Episode

Sam Harris speaks with Peter Zeihan about the unraveling world order. They discuss the Bretton Woods system, America’s role in securing the global supply chain, the coming end of American security guarantees, the shrinking of the US Navy, Houthi terrorism, deterring Iran, conflict in the Middle East, the future of Israel, the limits of immigration, the demographic pyramid, the demise of Europe, the war in Ukraine, the prospect of nuclear war, demographic collapse in China, loose nukes, America’s relative immunity to the world’s chaos, U.S. debt, the U.S. Southern border and immigration policy, why Trump will not win the 2024 election, and other topics.
Peter Zeihan is a geopolitical strategist and a global energy demographic and security expert. Over the course of his career, Peter has worked for the US State Department in Australia, the DC think tank community, and helped develop the analytical models for Stratfor, one of the world’s premier private intelligence companies. In 2012, Peter founded his own firm, Zeihan on Geopolitics, in order to provide a select group of clients with direct, custom analytical products. Today those clients represent a vast array of sectors including energy majors, financial institutions, business associations, agricultural interests, universities, and the U.S. military.
Peter is a critically acclaimed author whose first two books - The Accidental Superpower and The Absent Superpower - have been recommended by Mitt Romney, Fareed Zakaria, and Ian Bremmer. His other books include Disunited Nations: The Scramble for Power in an Ungoverned World and The End of the World Is Just the Beginning: Mapping the Collapse of Globalization.
Website: zeihan.com/
Twitter: @PeterZeihan
KZbin: / @zeihanongeopolitics
February 21, 2024
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[@Freaks31875]

8:27 he actually starts the interview with Peter

[@duxdawg]

The real question is does Harris ever stop being a sold his soul schill for the evil corrupt commies?

[@Unsleeping_eye]

Thank you Sam is unbearable in a solo conversation

[@sandeepshresthasir]

Humanity exists!!

[@MrRentgould]

@@Unsleeping_eye , I'm surprised how prejudiced Sam is about Trump .4 years of peace , economic security and secure country isn't of concern for Sam ? Sad , I really like most of what he says and agree but not that .

[@GiriColnat]

thanks. that rant was driving me nuts

[@ColinPeddicord]

He starts the interview around 8:57 for those here for the Peter Zeihan part of this interview with Peter Zeihan.

[@sirruss101]

Thank you for the timeline. I have never listened to Sam Harris and was outraged by the idiocy of his introduction.

[@ColinPeddicord]

@@sirruss101 It….went…..on…..and on…..and on

[@TheFuzzician]

I really wish Sam offered monthly memberships, rather than yearly. There are only a handful of episodes I want to fully listen to (like this one), but 100 dollars if a bit much for that. If I could get 1 month for, say, 10 dollars, I would be happy to do that......

[@moviesfan5513]

You can ask Sam for discount. I believe he offers free access to people who can't afford it.

[@psmorgan2542]

100% true, same for news media, I wish I could buy articles because I’m not going to pay for subscriptions. Even if the best articles, papers or interviews were $10 I would pay that.

[@patrickhassing120]

I work in automated logistics. What Peter says about automation not being able to solve this problem is correct, though it’s complicated. Automation is way more expensive than most would guess and robotics requires tons of maintenance and oversight.

[@dathx]

I think Robotics is one classification of automation.

[@vykintasmorkvenas6839]

If we can maintain and oversee ourselves AGI robots will be able to do it as well, believe me ;)

[@patrickhassing120]

@@dathx for sure robotics is only a subset of overall automation but its growing rapidly in the vehicle realm.

[@patrickhassing120]

@@vykintasmorkvenas6839​​⁠​​⁠ I think you miss the point here…. It’s a matter of cost not capability that limits automation most. If a robot that costs 1M replaces the work of 2 people, your return on investment is way too low to justify the expense. I think you also underestimate the complexity of maintenance and fault management.

[@vykintasmorkvenas6839]

@@patrickhassing120 believe me when AGI takes over, old economy will be forgotten for good.

[@robadkerson]

I wish you would just put the full episodes on KZbin. It's asking a lot, but you're always talking about clarifying your views. I don't want to pay for another service and I don't want to request free access as a favor. But I jump on your videos as soon as they are published, would love to see the whole conversations. Thank you for putting yourself out there

[@JonnyCook]

Why not ask for free access? He has a full time customer service staff that pretty much just gives out free subscriptions.

[@davidmorgan1190]

Just buy one less 10 bag a month ey?

[@jespurrier]

I asked for a free account but never got a reply...

[@MsMrshanks]

Dude. You obviously feel that Sam's content is valuable or you wouldn't have taken the time to write your message. Make a financial sacrifice or ask for the scholarship deal.....have a great day 😊

[@anonxnor]

You only get 6 months for free

[@SkyRiver1]

In case you don't know: Peter does a video everyday, very early, at Zeihan on Geopolitics here on KZbin. They are often very stimulating and the discussions on his page are great. Oh, . . . and it's free.

[@apokatastasian2831]

also he's an amazing guest...find him with a good interviewer and it brings out the best...

[@russellhammond371]

It would be a shame to support someone who spends time providing you a service. Good thing it's free.

[@SkyRiver1]

@@russellhammond371 Yeah it is a good thing. I would never pay to hear Harris speak. All his good ideas were used up by Jan Cox thirty years before The End of Faith. I was only here to hear what Ziehan had to say in this context. I like his insights on the effects of geography on virtually everything. Not that I dislike Harris. I agree with him on almost everything, except that he knows how to wake up or especially tell other people how to wake up, that well, it's hard to tell. I mean you can be sure if someone is talking or writing that they aren't awake at that moment. And if I didn't know the works of Jan Cox I would really think Harris was something. But I think he has handed out the ideas of Cox as his own too too often without attribution. There are just too many of them with exactly the same wording to be coincidence. The main difference being that Cox IMHO was actually awake, at least in the last five years of his life.

[@SkyRiver1]

@@jmcw9632 And like almost anywhere else on earth, from New Zealand to India , to Mexico, and on.

[@SkyRiver1]

@@apokatastasian2831 That's very true. I am appreciating his present series of monologues on _____________ (fill in the blank) after America, quite a lot though. Often someone in his online audience knows more about a particular subject than he does and they do not hesitate at all to let us know in the comments. That is sort of my favorite part. All the typical praise is just white noise to me.

[@ryccoh]

Sam did a good job pushing back on Zeihan to get a better explanation than you usually get out of him. Well done. That being said I always skip the intro lol who knows what weird stuff Sam went off on this time

[@arabedrossian222]

Yes I had to skip through the intro. It was basically a dump of his character judgments of the extreme right...without detailed explanation.

[@7JeTeL7]

41:30 - end is best summary of demographic curve outcomes i heard to this point!

[@jackjonesdrums42]

This guy has a real dungeons and dragons vibe. I feel like he’s talking about a video game the whole time.

[@kengrubb]

If he ever says "Roll a 20 sided ..."

[@user-zt6uu5tw9j]

Was it a socially engaged narrative?

[@tuckefresh]

That’s hilarious!

[@p.chuckmoralesesquire3965]

50 minutes of 2 of the most insufferable fake intellectuals on the internet LOL

[@colew306]

@@p.chuckmoralesesquire3965 found the Tim Pool moron

[@HannahS-fl2qn]

32:00 Minor correction: the last empire to occupy the land of Israel was Britain, not Turkey. Turkey was there before the Brits.

[@oscarcowie5322]

Please have on Stephen Kotkin.

[@sunnyla2835]

He won’t. Sam doesn’t hav😂 on anyone he disagrees with too much . Making sense is an echo chambet

[@emilianosintarias7337]

why.

[@chickenfishhybrid44]

Stephen's above this lol

[@Johnwilkinsonofficial]

im just glued to this, waiting for one positive emotion to emerge.

[@seanmcdonough8815]

Peter has predicted 12 of the last 3 global crisis 😂

[@davethepants]

which is of course much better than 0 out of 3 like for everyone else of the Experts

[@hamzamahmood9565]

So 1/4 of his predictions were right? That's great for an analyst lol

[@patrickhassing120]

@@hamzamahmood9565 you got it backwards. His prediction rate is 400% accurate lol.

[@wasdwasdedsf]

@@davethepants how would that be better...?

[@davidwestwater2219]

That gives him more success than any of the others

[@volo7877]

Sam, please consider Vlad Vexler as a philosopher and Russo-Ukrainian war. He is GREAT. Thank for your content

[@Dismal-future]

This was a super important podcast Sam I wish you could have at least let this one go all the way on KZbin

[@bygoneegowaitingremoval]

Would you consider publishing the full episodes some time after the premiere? Three months?

[@brianpetersen570]

But China will have collapsed by then

[@zachmorgan6982]

Yo....just get a subscription for free.

[@QwertyCanada]

​@@zachmorgan6982 How?

[@bygoneegowaitingremoval]

@@zachmorgan6982 I've had a free subscription for three years already. At this point, I just feel bad, but I don't have enough to justify another subscription. But here my watch time can still report something back to them,

[@KellyTheET]

​@@zachmorgan6982they typically only give it in 3 month increments. I'd be happy to pay for an individual episode, but paying for a subscription for a podcast that is released irregularly doesn't work.

[@Jstars200]

Peter Zeihan is pretty the only one who actually UNDERSTANDS whata heck is going on in the world

[@irongron]

That introduction was grammatical finesse Mr Harris. I am a first time listener from Ukraine, and I have been an IDP from Donbas for 2 years now, so I applied for a free scholarship on your home page, once we achieve victory and I can go home, I will be in a better position with my finances. Cheers, I like what I am hearing so far!

[@Aijan100]

The scope of topics in this conversation is all we want lucid and competent opinions on from knowledgeable guests and clear thinking hosts.

[@user-zt6uu5tw9j]

ya another dump on Trump is in order I guess

[@itamarsharon]

I like listening to Peter but when he talks about Israel (my country) he gets some basic stuff wrong, which leads me to doubt his understanding on other matters

[@jreganalyst9260]

Like what

[@itamarsharon]

@@jreganalyst9260 Well, though he's generally right about many ultra-Orthodox not working (not all) and being an economic drag on society, they are nowhere near 30-40% of the population, more like 12%. They also did not hold any positions of power relevant to the Oct 7 attacks and were not responsible. The failure was the military's and the defense establishment's and pm's, none of whom are ultra-Orthodox. He seems to be possibly creating a mish-mash out of the ultra-Orthodox society and right-wing religious groups, which are distinct communities with different politics and interests. But even then it's not clear where he derived the claim they are thought responsible for the events. This is not at all the perception. His knowledge on this appears superficial. Also, initially after the attack Zeihan claimed on several occasions that it is thought it was carried out by some new more radical previously unknown offshoot of Hamas, rather than its main forces. Nobody here thought this and I saw nobody claim that except him. He never offered a source for the claim.

[@literatious308]

@@itamarsharon Thanks for your input. I think PZ chooses to massage “facts” to fit his narrative, especially obscure “facts”. He’s still entertaining but far too loose on truth & far too impressed by himself. I’ve been watching him for 10yrs. from time to time.

[@budawang77]

@@itamarsharon Great to get an insight from someone with on the ground knowledge of Israel. If you look into Peter's assumptions they are often half truths or sometimes downright wrong. How is Morocco one of the most advanced states in the region by any measure? For a start, Morocco isn't even in the Middle East. I guess he can get away with this sort of thing because Americans' knowledge of geography is so woeful.

[@Pdotta1]

Yeah that’s the story for everyone’s individual areas of experience.

[@Smokey_da_Bear]

Always interesting to listen to - just be aware that Flute-snoot (Zeihan) is not the be all and end all of information.

[@anieudo5359]

This couldn't have come at a better time. I just discovered peter. I know everyone complains that he gets a lot of things wrong, but his storytelling to connect dots in your head is top-notch. It's great seeing 2 people i respect have conversations like this 👏

[@malehumanperson7901]

That's the problem. He tells nice stories that might or might not have anything to do with reality.

[@cmanycrows8400]

So you’re telling me you like a good bullshit story whether it has any bearing on reality or not. That’s fine they can be found in the fiction section which is where Peter Z belongs.

[@toby9999]

I've been following him for a while but I'm still 50/50 on his credibility.

[@wantanamera]

@@malehumanperson7901what has he gotten wrong? Just curious

[@allrequiredfields]

​@@cmanycrows8400So you're telling us he's said something that challenges a viewpoint that you can't tolerate being challenged. Zeihan backs up EVERYTHING he says. I've yet to hear anyone challenge his viewpoints with anything remotely coherent.

[@budawang77]

Zeihan successfully predicted 20 of the last 3 global crises.

[@cooldudecs]

He predicted Ukraine... He predicted the rise of American Empire... He successfully predicts Chinas current civilization's collapse... The final one is the big one... The global civilization is now going tobe broken up... American Empire and everyone else that wants to join..

[@tricky2014]

Nice

[@markpukey8]

I love Zeihan's analysis style, but yeah, you're spot on! Man does love his doom.

[@budawang77]

@@markpukey8 Zeihan is really an entertainer. He's a fun, likeable guy who likes to talk a lot.

[@IraSargent]

Dan Stone just appeared on Dan Carlin's show Hardcore History: Addendum. Really good listen! So Dan Stone has indeed been out there doin' podcasts!

[@SkyRiver1]

Carlin is always first class.

[@bjkarana]

Awesome! Huge fan of Hardcore History and Dan's work in general!

[@jon4139]

The way Dan Stone talks about Gaza/Israel near the end of that pod is likely the reason why he doesn't want to talk to Sam

[@IraSargent]

@@jon4139 Honestly not sure what you're referring to. I even just re-listened to it and nothing that was said was inconsistent with Sam's expressed views.

[@jon4139]

@@IraSargent You think Sam characterizes the situation as "Israelis genociding Gazans" like Dan does?

[@pegm5937]

This is the one podcast online that I have ZERO problem paying for. The annual fee for just the podcast is negligible and the value is immense. Sometimes the best things in life aren't free, and this is one of those times. Thanks for being in my life, Sam! (Depressing as this particular podcast may have been. 😂 )

[@tombombadyl4535]

My reaction to Peter is pretty much the same as Sam. I don’t understand how he can be so confident in his opinions. The world seems so complicated these days. And so difficult to predict. It seems like every year there’s a new development that totally changes the landscape. I do find him to be a likable guy.

[@Mac-ku3xu]

Spoiler alert: They are both intelligence agency assets.

[@angusp5178]

​@@Mac-ku3xu sure dude, "person not saying America is the root of all evil therefore person CIA" = watertight syllogism

[@Mac-ku3xu]

@@angusp5178He has a consistent pattern in his messaging that is very suspicious. And look up "Operation Mockingbird".

[@justinmccarthy2195]

If you start with geography, demographics, food production, and energy his analysis is almost deterministic from there. There is a logic to it as scary or off-putting as it seems.

[@volusiasorange]

he's really not very smart and is constantly wrong

[@andsowot]

I've said this before. Sam needs to get back on here for free and almost daily. The people he speaks against have bigger audiences because they are more accessible. Either that or he does the rounds on other channels a lot more this year. A year where his arguments will be needed more than ever.

[@alecjoyo]

He also should re-consider doing video podcasts

[@madallas_mons]

The people he speaks against have bigger audiences because Sam has lost the war of ideas

[@mathew9851]

There was a war of ideas?@@madallas_mons

[@never2yield20]

@@madallas_mons Cults don't deal in ideas, they deal in delusions. And Sam has no interest in fueling delusions. LOL Your statement "lost the war of ideas" proves the point.

[@duxdawg]

Sam is a sold out schill for the evil corrupt commies. Those whackadoodles already have vastly too much influence. So no, Sam should definitely NOT be heard by more folks.

[@bhupindertube]

That's how I used to play Age of Mythology or Age of Empires. Grow your population (mostly farmer) as quickly as possible with limited number of military. Once you've enough resources, then increase your military to help you to expand. At the same time, keep growing your farmer population. Then, expand the territory towards the natural barriers (lakes, valleys, etc.) and put up a wall and tower between the natural barriers - so less border to protect. Then, go crazy with production within your safe border. Meanwhile, let others savage each other ("choose your priority"). Once you became powerful enough, you could then defeat the rest. It's really a very simple logic. Even though the equation could become much more complicated in the Wonder creation game type. The winner will be the one who create a wonder & holds it for a few minutes irrespective of population, territory or resources. So the above strategy might not work on its own. Then, you should put all your effort in destroying the wonder of your enemy and forget about expanding your population (risky business). Once the wonder is destroyed, back to population expansion. Moto is population, population & population. P.S: The above is a strategic computer game. It seems Peter used to play it a lot too. A lot (not all) of what Peter says sound logical. But... (I ran out of time).

[@michaelharris6441]

You would have been one of those players I Would have rushed…By the 5 min make I would had a small raiding party harassing your villagers while building barracks & stables right outside your base then by 9-10 min mark start flooding your base with wave after wave of troops until you type GG ! Mythology was ok but AOE 3 was my fav !

[@forgemaster6120]

Prostagma. Heard they are remaking age of mythology.

[@bhupindertube]

@@forgemaster6120 Yeah - it's called age of mythology retold. It might have got Peter too excited.

[@AtkinsMedia]

I play with my brother and father - father on the wall, me or my brother in the middle on Oasis (water in the middle so you just need to build two long walls) so one of us gets an army faster. Get a big population, break down the wall and run through defeating one enemy at a time. Mostly just strong horses and trebuchets. We suck at this game and don't play against real people. Good family bonding.

[@here_we_go_again2571]

Good interview. I always enjoy listening to Peter expanding on his ideas. I like Sam Harris too.

[@michaelscott5653]

Gotta play this on at least 1.5x speed

[@bjkarana]

Thank you Sam and thank you Peter.

[@devalarees9987]

When I hear someone confidently making predictions dramatically against those of most other people, my question is: Why should I think you're right? What is your record of past predictions, for example?

[@Lord_Nikon33]

Yeah I really wish Sam would have questioned him more. Peter usually just says things with nobody there to ask for explanation. Sam seemed to just let him rant and only asked questions to further Peter or he just changed the topic.

[@ronniabati]

Peter predicted the Russian invasion of Ukraine down to the year

[@marcagray]

He said bitcoin was going to zero a year ago. 😂 Basically perfectly timed the bottom. 👌

[@alexwallachian7720]

He literally predicted the Russian invasion down to the year it would happen back in 2015.

[@gking407]

Why is it all or nothing? Are you looking for information from humans who are fallible, biased, and mostly well-intentioned - or a cult leader?

[@Brand00d]

Ya gotta put more info about what the conversation is about in the title of the video.

[@russellhammond371]

You know there's a description that elaborates, right?

[@Brand00d]

I did not

[@NeriaDavid]

Correction: the population in Israel that he was referring to is not 30 percent , it’s 13.

[@kfirmordechay3062]

He is including arab citizens of israel in that number

[@alx_256]

It's 13 going on 30 - it's a well known concept.

[@LarrenceUmpersalt]

Also he was blaming October 7th on them? What on earth was he talking about?

[@thecount3965]

Yeah he’s wrong about a lot of things and misspeaks all the time

[@Ancient88Wisdom]

​​@@LarrenceUmpersaltthey're currently in power. Though 13% seems small, it's enough to get Netanyahu a coalition and thus actually hold power way above their representative percentage.

[@mattwalls7381]

Please consider running ads. You have always put out good content. If i paid for individual content i would be spending a ton of money. Would prefer to skip through some ads for the full content!

[@randykrus9562]

What a cliffhanger...nailed it....

[@DanStrahan-pq7do]

(SingSong) Sammy's got a new drop!

[@RedRabbleRouser]

Getting into a convo just for it to end and fade out w over half of it left fucking SUCKS.

[@jps0117]

Nah. The glass is (almost) half full.

[@xtraastronaut6915]

I definitely wouldn’t want to meet Peter Zeihan in a dark alley for a game of Risk

[@grapeape7284]

I like Peter a lot but he does play fast and loose with facts sometimes. Usually i dont like people who do that, but he is the one example i can think of who does not do it maliciously. I do largely agree with the "demography over ideas" angle but i think the split is more 60/40 rather than pne or the other

[@cooldudecs]

Explain how?

[@ianbelanger7459]

​@@cooldudecsone way to look at it is a set of pressures where a demographic structure supports a certain production and consumption profile, but that desired profile is either supported or hindered by the technologies and resources available. These fairly predictable conditions are then interpreted by a people based on cultural institutions, which themselves are a product of geography and history. This sort of analysis works fairly well on strategic level, but, because it is based on generatuonal understanding of history and technology, it has to be updated as each cohort comes of age and it will often miss new high impact techologies or emergent political ideologies.

[@cooldudecs]

@@ianbelanger7459 What ideologies do you see coming out of China that will benefit a civilizational collapse of people population? How about Germany that when pressured like this for existentialism usually goes nuts trying to take over its neighbors? Or Russia who well is showing you what a dying civilization will do to survive in its geographical and demographic situation. You make sense but the proof is in the pudding on current events. He has not updated his points because it’s clear as day. The USA is the only part of the world away from geo/ demo disasters. Similar to the immigration boom of the Perris Island days

[@Patrick-jj5nh]

in terms of Peter's argument of geography over ideology being or becoming destiny, specifically saying if you 'live in a Malarial swamp, you won't get very far' that was exactly the case with much of Italy around the middle ages pre Renaissance like most of Tuscany, then known as Maremma, it was a swampy area saturated with mosquitos and thousands died of Malaria - but people created rivers and drainage for the area which led to prosperity over just a few years or decades... ever since the area has of course been highly prosperous in contrast...

[@danielebattistelli8725]

Italian here: Tuscany was not "known as Maremma". Maremma is the name that identifies an area in southern Tuscany, still today

[@Skeptique]

Exactly. The question is why are people still hobbled by their geography generations after rockets began launching humans from earth? The rationale for Israel's exceptionalism in the region is weak. As if we're not living in an information age and members of the elite in other countries are not educated in western institutions as well. Why is South Africa descending into dysfunction and anarchy since the end of white rule when its geography is virtually identical to the US and they were handed modern infrastructure on a silver platter? It's either genes or culture not suited to the modern life created by western people or some combination of both. If geography had any impact it was through isolation affecting genetics and cultural development.

[@never2yield20]

@@Skeptique Okay, why is Egypt's population pretty much confined to the sides of a river then ? South Africa's geography is ok, but European methods turned it into a farming/mining/trading juggernaut controlled by a European minority and aided by very cheap labor. Now the labor is in control and well farming (especially in a drought )/mining/trading are not what they used to be. Geography can be a factor, but humans are also a variable. Look at US and Alaska. Huge pile of ice and rock. And a few people. Under US it is still a huge pile of ice and rock, but soon spewed out canned Salmon, some gold and now barrels of oil. Why didn't that happen before ? Well the European culture that US came from, basically said, lets go find something to do up there. And meanwhile the native Alaskans (there for thousands of years) were still happy just fishing/hunting/and living. But now they get oil royalties. Yeah cultures matter but maybe some won't last severe climate disruption either. Did Egypt's geography change or did it's culture ? And did Europeans also look to make money in that region as well ?

[@never2yield20]

@@Skeptique Okay, why is Egypt's population pretty much confined to the sides of a river then ? South Africa's geography is ok, but European methods turned it into a farming/mining/trading juggernaut controlled by a European minority and aided by very cheap labor. Now the labor is in control and well farming (especially in a drought )/mining/trading are not what they used to be. Geography can be a factor, but humans are also a variable. Look at US and Alaska. Huge pile of ice and rock. And a few people. Under US it is still a huge pile of ice and rock, but soon spewed out canned Salmon, some gold and now barrels of oil. Why didn't that happen before ? Well the European culture that US came from, basically said, lets go find something to do up there. And meanwhile the native Alaskans (there for thousands of years) were still happy just fishing/hunting/and living. But now they get oil royalties. Yeah cultures matter but maybe some won't last severe climate disruption either. Did Egypt's geography change or did it's culture ? And did Europeans also look to make money in that region as well ?

[@Patrick-jj5nh]

@@danielebattistelli8725 yes good point, still technically called Maremma

[@trinidiana]

This was a somewhat scary conversation I must say. In terms of the demographics countries with low population, but seeing as total population is increasing in particular, in the very poor countries, I think it would be interesting to talk about how these countries are going to shape the world

[@VancouverInvestor]

More Third World... say good bye to space. We slowly regress.

[@jakebarnes28]

There's a wood cut from the early 19th century depicting an Bald Eagle with outspread wings over a prosperous New England hamlet. A ribbon in its mouth reads "Everything prospers beneath my wings " It may have been an "ad" for the Constitution.

[@greenbicep]

Maybe a full one - ever 5 videos

[@yamishogun6501]

Neither Harris nor Zeihen understands the important idea of "fungible" with respect to energy.

[@exhibitD79]

To all those questioning Peter or Sam for that matter on their ''Confidence''. Well, confidence sells. Strong opinions are belived more readily than ''maybe'' and ''perhaps''. Because most people seek answers, not further questions. It is good for engagement to have answers and bold claims.

[@Mac-ku3xu]

And everyone forgets Zeihan said China would be a failed state because he starts making noisy claims about nuclear war or Russia invading Canada.

[@duxdawg]

Harris is just another a sold his soul schill for the evil corrupt commies. Easy to be confident when you have the evil corrupt commie propaganda machine behind you.

[@roadbeef]

The lack of enough vessels to maintain the red sea trade passage makes me think of that sound bite from the Romney Obama debates. Something about bayonettes.

[@jakebarnes28]

Britain, EU, NATO, AND The USA seems to make it doable task

[@galindoof]

Sam Harris did better journalism here than Tucker Carlson has done ever.

[@Mac-ku3xu]

By repeating what CNN said. Right.

[@galindoof]

@@Mac-ku3xu Senile to the point of comedy.

[@duxdawg]

If by "journalism" you mean being a sold his soul schill for the evil corrupt commies, then yes, Harris did better than Carlson in that regard. At least Tucker tells the Truth. Harris is just another depraved evil State run propaganda outlet. So sad.

[@budawang77]

That's not a high bar.

[@jl696]

Sam Harris lost his mind several years ago due to TDS.

[@jacobcochrane9069]

SH starts the podcast with unabashed polarization, even referring to someone else's "arrogant ignorance." 😂 Why do I even try with this guy?

[@MrRentgould]

It has become a problem for Sam and he should examine it.

[@sunnyla2835]

Yes, sam, the master protectionist. HE would benefit from some jungian therapy, methinks

[@marionow6227]

He´s not polarizing. He´s calling things by their name.

[@jacobcochrane9069]

@@marionow6227 "polarizing" refers to acknowledging only two "names" to call from, that happen to be effectively opposites

[@marionow6227]

@@jacobcochrane9069umm so whats your point?

[@sidanx7887]

Look bro I like some of the conversations you are having but not enough for a 100 per year cost

[@mohamedkamari9061]

You can request a scholarship and pay as much as you think the podcast is worth.

[@tomrecane6366]

27:00 Destroying or not destroying Irans oil production is not simply about rethinking policy. As you said earlier oil is sold on a global market. If Iran stopped producing, the price would skyrocket.

[@0MoTheG]

37:00 Sad that one has to listen to a non-german source to hear the true numbers and future of Germany. German women have had way too few children and immigration has already changed Germany forever. Even without the numeric facts going out on the streets of cities is sufficient.

[@mohamedkamari9061]

I suggest you take his predictions with a grain of salt. Just scroll through the comments and watch other creators on KZbin critiquing his predictions. He has a tendency to pick the worse case scenario research to give dramatic and sensational predictions and more often than not he has surface level knowledge on the subject at best.

[@0MoTheG]

@@mohamedkamari9061 Yes I expected as much, but the numbers are real and the problems already exist.

[@mohamedkamari9061]

Are the problems as bad as he stated? Another problem i have with his predictions is that he discards human ingenuity, he presents his predictions as if states seeing an existential problem before their eyes would not react and try to solve it. Many people before him were making these doomsday predictions and were proven wrong, case in point the economist Thomas Malthus who predicted that uncontrolled population growth would lead to a depletion of resources, increased pollution, overcrowding, and increased unemployment when the population was less than 1 billion, but we discovered more efficient ways of growing food and now the population is 8 billion and we have fewer famines than then. All i'm saying is as long as people recognize there is a problem and move to solve it, eventually they will.

[@mohamedkamari9061]

​@@0MoTheG are the problems in Germany as bad as he says? Another problem i have with his doomsday predictions is they do not take into account human ingenuity when faced with existential problems, that humanity will just sit and take it. Many people before him predicted that humanity will go extinct because of one or another problem, case in point Thomas Malthus who predicted that uncontrolled population growth will lead to depletion of resources, increased pollution, overcrowding and unemployment when the population was less than 1 billion, but when the need rose more efficient ways of farming were invented and we are now at 8 billions. Another case is china who he has been predicting its collapse in the next 10 years since 2010 i believe, and they are now better off than in 2010 i think. As soon as n existential problem presents itself people move to solve it.

[@mohamedkamari9061]

​@0MoTheG are the problems in Germany as bad as he says? Another problem i have with his doomsday predictions is they do not take into account human ingenuity when faced with existential problems, that humanity will just sit and take it. Many people before him predicted that humanity will go extinct because of one or another problem, case in point Thomas Malthus who predicted that uncontrolled population growth will lead to depletion of resources, increased pollution, overcrowding and unemployment when the population was less than 1 billion, but when the need rose more efficient ways of farming were invented and we are now at 8 billions. Another case is china who he has been predicting its collapse in the next 10 years since 2010 i believe, and they are now better off than in 2010 i think. As soon as n existential problem presents itself people move to solve it.

[@SkyRiver1]

Peter's interviews everywhere else: free.

[@hotrodandrube9119]

I love how around 45 minutes in he says the boomers' children are millennials. Completely forgetting about generation X, like everyone always does.

[@willywonka4340]

I feel ya pain. 😂

[@CarlosHfam]

Hell yeah!!! Pleasant surprise!!!

[@jlvandat69]

Great conversation, but I will suggest that Peter is a bit premature in terms of writing Germany's obituary. The demographic issue is real, but so is immigration and automation. The energy starvation issue is real, but Russia will eventually lose the war and there's plenty of low cost oil and gas that will be looking for a market to help the Kremlin pay for the rebuilding of Ukraine. Yes, the war is a wild card, but the combined resources of EU and the USA ensure only one outcome, long term.

[@emilianosintarias7337]

How is Russia going to lose the war? They have production, resources, men, an air force, and no other countries still believe Russia are coming for them. An nobody else wants to take them out since they have nukes.

[@platosghost6916]

It's really strange hearing someone with Bert Kreischer's voice saying smart things.

[@Packacone420]

Sam Kreischer

[@doctordaro2112]

Why did you post this comment? I can never unhear this

[@platosghost6916]

@@doctordaro2112 Share in my uncanny discomfort.

[@billj4525]

@@Packacone420 It's not Sam that has his voice.

[@tombombadyl4535]

When Sam’s podcasts were free I made a donation of $100. This would have been in 2016. I had no problem with it. He was the sharpest critic of Trump at the time and I felt like he was doing a valuable service. Then he put up a paywall and it kind of rubbed me the wrong way. If everyone who listened to his podcasts donated $100 Sam would be a very wealthy man (or at least he would have enough to run a podcast). His expenses can’t be that high. He doesn’t do video. So I content myself to these abbreviated versions. Also there’s a limit to how much time I want to spend on anyone source. I subscribe to the Atlantic and the Economist and several other podcasters. There aren’t enough hours in the day.

[@bkup1332]

Sam picks some great guests and asks some good questions but is ridiculously naive about history and how countries work.

[@__________5737]

In the age of drones Peter needs to analyze Navies differently. It is an enormous change and power shift away from traditional navies.

[@jimb9063]

It's certainly a change, but not unlike the changes that gunpowder, steam engines, torpedoes, aircraft etc have necessitated. It's not viable long term to spam off very expensive missiles at relatively cheap drones, so another way will have to be found, get busy with the laser and microwave testing I guess.

[@ASDeckard]

Funny, because the worlds foremost drone experts, who literally were able to hack and steal a US stealth drone, have been unleashing their best on *two* US destroyers for a week straight. They achieved a hard core zero damage, and zero successful strikes on surrounding civilian ships while they were present. Two destroyers, far enough apart they couldn't support each other, and hanging around in predictable patters for weeks, and they achieved zero damage out of literally hundreds of attempts. If your drone is cheap enough to be massed, it doesn't have a weapon and can't target. If it can target it needs to be emitting signals that can be used to track and destroy it, and to carry a weapon that a warship cares about it needs to be big, heavy, and likely slow. Ukraine has only had success against Russian's navy because.... they are a bit brain dead, and by sneaking up on them. Good luck sneaking up on a warship in open waters, knowing it's in hostile territory and on alert, while emitting control signals that are boosted enough to work over 20+ km ranges. Unless you're talking about high speed drones with passive sensors and self targeting that travel fast and low.... Oh wait, we call those cruise missiles, and are literally what ships are designed to deal with already. You also need to be tracking the ship *before* you launch, with a separate system, in order for the missile to be targeted correctly, because if it misses by just a few km it won't see the target. Before the US navy showed up the Houthi's launched nearly 200 anti-ship missiles, and achieved one hit, on civilian tanker and cargo ships sailing slowly in straight lines. The USN itself only has around a 20% success rate with over the horizon missiles: it is not at all easy to do, but you expect a lower speed drone that needs to lead even more accurately with shorter ranged sensors is going to do better? If that worked we'd already have lower speed cruise missiles designed to be cheap. If you mean mass produced *large and expensive drones,* like the US replicator program.... well, no one except America can afford them at scale, so.... I guess it's a good thing we're ahead of the curve then.

[@effexon]

@@jimb9063saw in news britts are developing laser system. I guess we'll seen soon-ish if any of those are any good.

[@xj8713]

Jeune ecolé was wrong then and also now

[@integralmark]

@@ASDeckard man, I'd like to have a conversation with you. One of Zeihan's main points is global shipping is no longer going to be secured by the US, and even the capability to do so is gone. And I keep having the same question come up: but what about naval drones, look what Ukraine has done vs. Russia... surely the innovation cycle is not complete with naval drones, there have to be emerging offensive and defensive capabilities for naval drones... I would like to know why you're so confident in your comment that naval drones are not a game changer.

[@ClearlySoClear]

At the 36 - 40 minute mark: The ultra orthodox do not control the defense department in Isreal.

[@gmw3083]

Zionists control Israel..

[@gmw3083]

Psyonists control ishrahell

[@lukejames854]

They vote in politicians who appeal to the ultra orthodox who don’t listen to professionals because they are political populists. Hes talking about benjamin

[@Mr.Stavrous]

Hello Sam. I have enjoyed watching and listening to your debates for many years. Your understanding on the topic of religious beliefs had a great impact on my own recovery from religion. But I need to gain your attention for a moment for you to consider a solution that will make sense of where our social insanity is originating from.Believing itself is our core problem, not just religious beliefs, forming beliefs in general. Sam, I see you are a man of reason and scientific enquiry, so I'll be direct. Where is the the area of the human brain that process beliefs themselves. There are areas for processing everything else, but why haven't we evolved to develop a specific area for belief processing. Also, why do beliefs have a serious impact on the emotional side of the human brain? Think about this Sam.

[@sravasaksitam]

Sam has actually talked about the neurobiology of belief already

[@MrRentgould]

Start at 8 minutes

[@AZWings]

I enjoy listening to and reading Zeihan, but one thing that concerns me is his seeming expertise on everything. This is usually a red flag to me.

[@Jake-Day]

Peter’s been wrong a lot.

[@phillystevesteak6982]

Know-it-all with expertise in their field vs just someone with expertise in their field.

[@twntwrs]

Kinda like Harris' expertise on everything which he gets confirmed by only inviting into his echo chamber people who agree with his basic assumptions.

[@cmanycrows8400]

Zeihan and Harris are birds of a feather in that respect.

[@phillystevesteak6982]

@@twntwrs I hate that there's truth to this. But he is a brilliant person, and realistically people like to hear the political takes of brilliant people. even if it isnt their field

[@j.k.cascade2057]

Very interesting topics - the level of hubris from Peter Z is however unberable. He makes each and every claim with 100% certainty as though its all a foregone conclusion. Its just over the top.

[@rilesbronson7990]

The ponderous exhalations, the up talking, it’s all so nauseating

[@willywonka4340]

Wow, never thought Sam Harris would have Peter Z on his show! Bravo!

[@jps0117]

This is at least the second time.

[@willywonka4340]

@@jps0117 yeah I just found out lol. thanks 👍

[@user-hn9qw7ou8d]

Ask him about his Bitcoin predictions when he was on JRE lol

[@mortenlu]

I think Peter was better when paired with Ian Bremmer to have an equal keep his ass on the ground a little. And the conversation had a better dynamic. Still good though. Listen to episode 288. Its the episode that made me listen to Making Sense regularly.

[@satan6548]

Zeihan is the Deepak Chopra of the geopolitical experts

[@lonzo61]

What does that even mean? If you mean both of them are flakes, I tend to agree. Although Ziehan is at least more grounded in realities.

[@dogsdomain8458]

I feel like he's right about certain things but like demographic changes effecting the economy but he underestimates the capacity of countries and supply chains to adapt very quickly.

[@dogsdomain8458]

For example. It is true that china is running out of working age people. but thats only the number of people, not the number of workers. Most people in China live outside the cities with the most factories (even with how dense they are). Those people can still be recruited to work in the big cities even after population decline.

[@dogsdomain8458]

Also, I think a lot of factories will probably just be automated, including the ones in China

[@hamzamahmood9565]

@@dogsdomain8458 He also addressed automation many times before. Machines do not consume, and Europe and China are running out of a consumer class as well. Why else do you think China is suffering from deflation in a world where everything's getting more expensive?

[@foxyheart517]

Fascinating

[@TpolTime]

Man this was just getting interesting when it cut😒

[@cah0261]

Honey, get in here! Sam Harris dropped a new podcast!

[@user-pv5ym5bx9w]

What a great conversation. Zeihan has predicted most of the world issues

[@larsp3280]

Battle of the monologues

[@donaldedward4951]

Harris talks and talks and talks about what people talk about and then asks us to pay for it. I skipped to ahead to Zeihan because he talks about issues and ideas.and often has his own unique talk on an aspect of geohistory ord geopolitics.

[@aaronwhidden3885]

In the pursuit of truth I’d love to hear a friendly debate between John mearsheimer and Peter zeihan. They’re a little bit different wheelhouses but they overlap on foreign affairs.

[@harryzimmerman2005]

That’s a very one dimensional view of the Putin interview.

[@a.m.7438]

I greatly value Sam's ability to wield a sort of gentleness in demeanor without sacrificing his honesty. His public intellectual bravery is too rare. But circumstances around the world make the environment too hostile.

[@duxdawg]

Who cares about the delivery when what Harris is saying is tyhe COMPLETE OPPOSITE of the Truth??? Tough to believe anyone is stupid enough to listen to Harris.

[@MrRentgould]

I'm always shocked at how smart he is and still biased against Trump . Sad

[@julianmcgee5741]

I decline to be on the podcast too.

[@CR1981-]

For everyone talking about free subscriptions and free content. I get it, it’s hard to justify paying for yet another thing when times are hard financially. I had a free subscription to Sam’s Pod and Waking up for a while. However, it’s really important that when you can pay to help support someone’s work, that you do in fact make this commitment. It’s difficult, time consuming and expensive to build what Sam has, and becoming a paid subscriber pays it forward to enable folks who can’t afford the content to receive it for free. The $99 I spend on Sam’s work each year is both a bargain and a privilege to pay. It’s some of the best money I spend and I’m more than happy to pay for the kind of content Sam and his team produce.

[@supremereader7614]

Zeihan shows up at 8:30

[@davidmireles9774]

Sam ! God dam. Talk with Peter Joseph !!!!!! Please. Pretty please.

[@expensivefreedom]

Worth noting that we already had the navy built for the imminent invasion of Japan if the bomb didn’t work, so basically we were trying to recover at least a tiny bit of our sunk cost.

[@goarmysleepinthemud.]

The world is not failing. People are.

[@user-zt6uu5tw9j]

Geopolitics has no future. What is sociologically relevant is Sustainability. Sustainability is 'beyond Human' and biopolitical.

[@jon1979roma]

Couldn't the Navy redeploy old ships to police the oceans? I'm guessing a multi billion dollar ship from 20 or 30 years ago is still usable even in a limited capacity.

[@jeffbrownme2]

I guess the question is do we want to? Can America even make a decision like that anymore? It's not a simple button press and we have it. It'll take years to get ships operational and train personnel on them. And with the way military budgets and contractors go, it'll be trillions of dollars.

[@NIL0S]

Look how well that's working out for the Russians with their floating fire hazard of a carrier.

[@herbert92x]

Except for the first ten minutes of snarky monologue by Sam, it is not a bad interview. Peter does a good job of saving the interview. Honestly, Peter was the only reason I clicked on Sam’s show. Until Peter is on next time, cheers!

[@patryk6769]

Well, that's a fun and calm podcast to listen to walking alongside Vistula in Warsaw.

[@margaretwinson402]

I'm exhausted and horrified, and only halfway through...

[@user-zt6uu5tw9j]

I am surprised there was no prediction for Elon Musk as a VP running mate to Donald Trump.

[@user-zt6uu5tw9j]

No-one can beat the computer at chess.@@pcap8810

[@user-zt6uu5tw9j]

Well, nobody can beat the computer at chess...@@pcap8810

[@user-zt6uu5tw9j]

Nobody can beat the computer at chess.@@pcap8810

[@jasonweaver3629]

I am new to Peter Zeihan, there seems to be a real mixed bag of opinions on how factual he is, would people say he is a legit analyst? If not why? Thanks for your time.

[@jess7150]

How about allowing ads and posting full podcast?

[@gregorysgarrison]

As a skeptic and epistemologist Sam you should be happy that more than half of America are no longer eating everything they are fed. I'm all for believing anything there is compelling evidence for, and rejecting anything there isn't.

[@alexanderscott2456]

We are "red-pilling" and "woking" ourselves into oblivion. The cultural trend is toward invalidating institutional knowledge and reason as such, not toward objective thinking.

[@joycesanto622]

I find many of these conversations interesting but am curious as to why there are so few women invited to be on the program.

[@jonbaxter2254]

I think we're at a turning point now. As Britain fell from power in the mid 20th century, France in the early 19th and Spain in the 18th century, I think America is on the way out. Not by any foreign power, but whittled down from within.

[@Agtsmirnoff]

Thanks to leftists

[@M.Linoge]

@@Agtsmirnoff because leaning harder and harder to the right has turned out so well in other countries...

[@toby9999]

​@@AgtsmirnoffBoth sides. Trump and maga are stuffing it up right now on foreign policy and the leftists from within.

[@user-bx3dw9eh8s]

Every time I hear something like "whittled from within" it never comes with a basis or evidence. Mostly it seems to have something to do with Jesus. World economic development historically has favored the United States for a couple of reasons. A big one has been the mobility of money. Going back to the late 1800s, no country comes remotely close to the United States in terms of the company-building environment and the ease to obtain investment money. Unless you've got evidence that's going away, America will continue to crush it.

[@OddityDK]

It’s not a change on the right threatening to bring down western civilization, the right has barely moved, the change, the “leaning harder”, has happened on the left. The notion that there is a rise in the “far right” is nonsense. The increased distance between left/right is a reflection of the left shifting it’s center, not the right.

[@GordonLF]

It really does not matter whether the information, analysis and assumptions in which you base your predictions are wrong, if the predictions themselves are right. Unfortunately Zeihan's predictions are also wrong.

[@spinoza311]

Talk to Vlad Vexler if you are interested in learning something

[@danielrbrowndu]

I have always been a huge fan of Harris since college in the early 2000’s. I found him thoughtful, measured, and excellent at steelmanning ideas. He completely misses the mark on all of his “right wing” commentary. Just to tease apart some of his examples: 1) NATO funding: countries continue to not meet their 2% promise for military funding while supporting robust welfare programs and healthcare programs for their citizens-AT THE EXPENSE OF THE UNITED STATES. Yes, there is a great reason for holding their feet to the fire on funding their own militaristic concerns. 1.2) Western men are tired of being hated and then being asked to support and die for other countries or even die for crooked, old politicians who don’t give a fuck about young male lives. Look at the comments section on any recent army advertisement if you want to see the ratio for this issue. I would encourage Harris to get this right because he has a full misunderstanding of why many just don’t want to die or support the war machine that hates men. 2) Our taxes pay for our failing transportation systems in the United States. Have you been to New York recently? Do you see the terrible infrastructure? Do you understand how piss poor the government functions at providing these services and keeping these areas safe and functional? The Tucker train station comments are more a commentary on social cohesion versus total disorder and willful destruction. Go ride on a dysfunctional subway with a crazy person screaming at you and then have a chat with me about the virtues of freedom in the west. From a normal vantage point, we are taxed to no end for low quality services and disorder-that’s the point. I honestly do not think he has nor is he willing to have a conversation with an intelligent member of the middle or middle right. He just has invented a caricature that he constantly rants at these days and consequently, fights a view that no one actually holds.

[@emilianosintarias7337]

Upvoted. He also has never talked to anyone on the actual left (obviously the democrats are extreme woke centrists, P.C. but anti all the populist left demands). I consider myself a marxist, and I agree with you (strongly) on 1.2, on Tucker trains, and Harris unwillingness to engage the intelligent right (i prefer the term conservative). Even my favorite ultraleft podcasts will host Glen Loury, or do a 1 hour charitable but critical engagement with Scruton's work. Not so, for Sam. About NATO, i don't think the US should be in it, but I don't take a stand on the funding since those countries have paid way more than that simply by tanking their economies on the orders of DC's geopolitical aims. And DC runs NATO. So that's a bit chicken and egg. Either way, it's not a good arrangement. I don't agree on 2. , because i think that's a case of underfunding and corrupt siphoning off of monies, and lack of public consultation, which then serves as pretext to spend less on it since it doesn't work well, and so on etc. That doesn't mean I think that american workers should shoulder the bulk of the cost through taxes though, but just empirically, some of the best transport systems on earth are public projects. As an aside I don't think Trump, despite his electoral rhetoric, is really a right winger, especially if you look at his background and read his book. The PMC 's like Harris utter demonization of american workers who vote for trump fuels division, and then they complain about the division, instead of talking to people

[@mimimonday5539]

Hello Sam Harris, Thank you for enriching my life and thoughts on global issues.

[@russellhammond371]

Sure, the raw number of U.S. Navy ships has gotten smaller. And it would be nice to increase for several reasons, but let's not pretend carrier groups can't deal with Houthi missiles. They have and they'll continue to do so.

[@jeffbrownme2]

He's arguing that with smaller numbers and those numbers dedicated towards being grouped together for aircraft carriers, the navy can be stretched thin if it were to have multiples of these instabilities across various regions.