🔴 A Historical Look at Recession Watch (w/ Kiril Sokoloff & Raoul Pal)

Investment visionary Kiril Sokoloff, chairman and founder of 13D Global Strategy & Research, draws on his deep knowledge of history and on the interplay between different market forces in order to forecast what’s ahead - and to suggest how savvy investors ought to position themselves today. In this deep-diving conversation with Real Vision co-founder Raoul Pal, Sokoloff helps answer the most pressing questions around markets and the economy. He also provides a read on how other significant minds are making sense of the increasingly powerful forces that are shaking our financial world. Filmed on July 10, 2019 in upstate New York. To learn more about 13D Publications, visit www.13D.com/trial Note: When this interview was filmed, gold was trading at about $1,400 per troy ounce.
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For the transcript visit: www.realvision.com/rv/media/V...
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[@RealVisionFinance]

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[@Molloy1951]

How can this master class, available for free for any and everyone, have only 1% of likes? Please let's give Raoul and Kiril the appreciation they deserve! 🙏🏼🙌🏼

[@sheeplewatcher5125]

The Real Vision Finance channel (especially when Raoul Pal and Grant Williams are sitting in) is one of my favourite, if not my favourite on the web. The information you are share is so valuable. Thank you for all you do in trying to help those who are switched on, not get fleeced in what is coming. If I am right in my understanding, what is to unfold in the next ten years is going to be nothing like the past and will make '08 look like a side show.

[@jerryfriedman1183]

These Real Vision conversations are some of the very best discussions on youtube or most anywhere else. Raoul Pal is a master of intelligent conversation. But more than that, his humanity and genuine curiosity brings out the best in anyone he interviews.

[@Screenwriting]

Am I alone in feeling like this is a profound little video, a hidden gem, a secret handshake, that all should witness?

[@Frank-ue6eg]

@D S ...No, you are not alone, you are just naïve. The secret handshake is exactly what these creeps want you to think you are witnessing. It's literally the oldest scam in the book...right up there with pick pocketing.

[@laszlokovacs6154]

Frank Spot on

[@Defender888888]

@@Frank-ue6eg Hi Frank, so what is their real ulterior motive? would you mind to share? Thanks!

[@mitchtherighteous]

@@Defender888888 This is the motive: Invest and vote the way the globalizers with money in china tell you. Ignore all systemic aspects of Chinese (government controlled anti foriegner) economy that make it a money pit. Look at law blogs on china, where is the push to create a legal framework that supports rights of foreigners like the one that eXists in HK? All court cases are political and the government makes it clear that it doesn't want to be seen as enforcing the rights of foreigners against the chinese, even when foreigners have clearly been swindled. In the case of many buyouts, it will be the chinese government that does the swindling.

[@marcosyoutubechannel]

My mate was designing those shopping malls in China and he came home to Australia as the work stopped and how many times can you redesign malls to try to and trap shoppers into spending before they feel trapped and look for something else, like a walk in the park instead of a shopping mall.

[@derickshalo384]

Finally a financial video worth watching over.

[@racker9999]

I’ve watched the Pal/Sokoloff chat twice so far. It’s singularly eerie watching two of the world’s greatest investment minds casually discussing where we are headed as the hypersonic shockwave approaches behind the as-yet unperturbed, drawn shade.

[@davidarnold9324]

Yeah this interview was quite concerning. Anyone who takes an interest in financial markets can plainly see the ground is shifting under our feet and only a few clever or lucky souls will be able to avoid the carnage heading our way.

[@floesh-408]

Central banking system is the root of the problem

[@joseCalderon1976]

And money. The root of all evil?

[@thammarongp]

Thank you so much for this conversation. This wraps up the financial history around the world esp. in the US. Thank you Real Vision.

[@bender4751]

It would have been ok if globalism was just about free trade and not total control of countries and free movement of people for cheap labor. I like how they use words like protectionism, when protecting your sovereign country and controlling your boarders against cheap labor and standard of living is called protectionism then protectionism sounds ok to me.

[@joseCalderon1976]

Don't worry, we'll just keep printing money until it hits the hemisphere! 💰👍

[@luciaconk]

Wow. Mind = Blown. Buy Gold and Grains is my takeaway...

[@richard7945]

great show thank you for doing it.

[@johnl4469]

Loving what you're doing Real Vision. Terrific conversation.

[@joshuas7618]

@29:40 "Bannon"-ization is the incorrect term to coin for this. We have seen this phenomena arise before and it is called sinophobia.

[@joshuas7618]

@TarzanThe act of what you describe would fall under patriotism, yes. The sentiment that Raoul is describing in his interview question is correctly described as sinophobia. My statement was towards the term "Bannon"-ization; the symptoms were already there as described by Kyle Bass and others. To place the reason for rise in sinophobia in the west solely upon Steve Bannon's shoulders, due to him being a major vocal piece in the matter, would be erroneous.

[@tomcoughlan2532]

This is outstanding stuff . Very educational

[@tinaramsey5186]

Fascinating! Thanks.

[@calculon000]

What exactly is the guest referring to when he says "5000 year lows"? Is there some Sumerian asset, or financial instrument that financed the building of Stonehenge he's referring to or something?

[@KennyPurpleRain]

Well worth my time to listen to this

[@rjames8elliott]

Keep Moving Forward what great insight

[@marksteven3534]

BTW Raoul, Miami Vice ended in the 80's

[@kenneth1032]

There should be a podcast notes for this channel. Quality.

[@venkatraodog]

Mr..Sokoloff..your views are so right on the money..thanks for sharing your knowledge..I became your fan as you soon as you talked about archbishop moment and about Steve Bannon being a reflection of Trump ideology

[@benjaminsisko5160]

What's the exact title / author mentioned in the last seconds of the vid? Thanks!

[@jimmyk7231]

Money will flow into BTC and Gold/Silver

[@Tom_Mroz]

Can you list books mentioned in interview ?

[@CloverPickingHarp]

I'd love to see Professor Richard Werner interviewed!!!!!!

[@thomasf.9869]

"Vertrouwen komt te voet en gaat te paard" => a Dutch proverb that translates as "Trust comes on foot and leaves on horseback".

[@nicholasvarro7382]

Everyone I know could care less about whats going on outside of their day to day activities.

[@kirstinstrand6292]

This is precisely how we got here...along with inappropriate policies, of course.

[@phillipgaley4416]

When you're at the bottom of the barrel, you can go no lower; hence, in corrected logic, the phrase is rather: "couldn't care less", . . .

[@Lawliet734]

@Nicholas "Everyone...could care less about whats [what's] going on..." How much less could they care (a lot, a little), and how long before they get there (a day, a month)? Do you prefer their attitude now or after they "care less"?

[@freddieg7131]

@@phillipgaley4416 The barrel doesn't have a fixed bottom. It can easily drop right out.

[@monkeyloven]

I know, people are so oblivious. Wake up peeps!

[@markwawrzyniak109]

Wondering how Cryptocurrencies (like Bitcoin) fit in all these?

[@LibertarianRF]

Brilliant

[@arnoldziffel5627]

Tied in with the excess corporate debt is the goodwill piled onto the books financing for M&A activity. Many of the acquisitions are malinvestment. During the next downturn that goodwill is not realizable and must be revalued and written off. It will be a double whammy for corporate earnings.

[@petertep7844]

I loved 13D

[@lylecrussell]

Plunge protection team aaaassseeemmmbbbaaaaaaalll!!!!!

[@omniversling]

23 September 2019: two major signs they talk about have happened (gold up $100+, and liquidity stress - repo rate up to 10% for three days last week). I am one of the small fry that is getting crushed with deflation (no one has spare $s to buy my labour), and bills (inflation). I make things and don't have spare cash to make bets on investment cycles. I put my retirement into PMs in 2011 when it looked like the the system was about to go belly up, and am still over 20-40% down, brutally manipulated down. Cant shake the feeling that these guys are not productive, and simply harvest the fruits of other peoples labour and innovation... still appreciate the content, thanks.

[@beamerM5]

Raoul, great interview, great content. Can you share your opinion on what Sokoloff says about a weak USD a bit more thoroughly? You keep predicting a stronger USD, but he seems to think otherwise. Thanks!

[@mikeymce9931]

@Sam Sabra this didn't age well

[@flaklognon6274]

talking 1929 now that's something

[@AP-fo3lp]

it's the way how the FED measure it, is the problem. they don't count things like the stock market price increase

[@monkeyloven]

Gold miners are the way to go right now. GOLD and WPM.

[@cyruschadrezzar9873]

the bunker boys gotta be gettin a little nervous. the top has a lot of ghost pollution to pay for!

[@bbelev]

Great interview! thanks for sharing it publicly! - here's an idea for Real Vision - paid members can view the videos as soon as published and they all become public in 3-6 months. This way you'll get al the publicity by releasing them for free but also the people who are making money using the advice will be willing to give you a small cut of the profit for subscription...I see you are experimenting with your business model that's why I am suggesting it

[@alphafox400]

Raoul stated reasonably enough that "a lot of people are making really big, embedded assumptions that I am not sure are built on strong foundations." I share his and Kiril's concerns and agree with their analysis. There is one big proviso. Many, perhaps too many people, are warning of the impending market crash, debt crisis, potential for another war trade war included, monetary reset, etc. All those concerns are built on strong, embedded assumptions. However, the future rarely plays out the way many people expect. The triggering event will likely be a black swan, hence it is unknown at this time. The realist in me asserts that there is enormous systemic instability that cannot end well. My inner optimist says that too many people expect a crash. The prudent man in me says that speculative vehicles have too much risk, investment vehicles have too little return, therefore the best bet is to liquidate and go into money. Gold is money.

[@peterwright7025]

maybe that is were the missing 21 trillion went a sort of fighting fund for the stock market just a thought

[@DANVIIL]

"Art Laughter" not Art Laffer at min: 4:57.

[@shaileshdhuri4166]

What can you buy at 1972 prices? From oral history, Mumbai_NY economy class tickets are 1975 levels. Black and white TVs are cheaper significantly, cost of x_ray diagnosis exposure is lower, cement in Mumbai is lower in 2019 than what I remember paying in 1982 as 11 year boy for home repairs project excitedly purchased with dad. Microwave machine is 10x cheaper.

[@marsmotion]

some of the china shows ive seen are detailing how the entrepreneurial climate in china is turning seriously negative inc its acceptance of foreigners. fyi

[@denniskatinas]

Can we have Kiril back now?

[@kotharifarms4091]

Can you make kiril talk about India and how would it moves like china?

[@bradojacko8247]

What's does he mean when he says the EU and china have agreed on global governance standards? Is he talking about trade agreements or something more orwellian?

[@davidbutler240]

Id love to know when these interviews actually happened though.

[@MRJLJ92]

David Butler the dates are in the description

[@julianmccormack8704]

Blaming the '29 crash with the passage of smoot Hawley is crazy. Ben Strong's Fed kept rates too low for a decade, there were almighty debt bubbles in stocks and property (esp Miami). Smoot Hawley was a little pin that popped a vastly over inflated bubble

[@julianmccormack8704]

Sorry, tiny complaint in a terrific interview!

[@coled2270]

heroes in the boom become villains in the bust will be interesting to see .......

[@imba69420]

I didn't know George Clooney was so interested in economics!

[@michaelanderson9523]

Excellent interview. Thank you for your hard work

[@daleholmgren6078]

Gold was $1,504 at date of interview. Today it's $1,628.

[@viirusiiseli]

$1824 now. Slow going still, but I think once the general investing public becomes disillusioned by the FED money printer, gold is gonna go hard. We just need that catalyst that's strong enough, because I guess even a pandemic wasn't.

[@pfschuyler]

Very interesting stuff. Especially about Bonds being the source of the Great Depression. Right now, Bonds are hotter than hades. The message is, I suppose...don't be tempted by bonds?

[@davidarnold9324]

Yeah if I were a bit more brave I would start to consider shorting bonds but who knows what crazy stuff we will see when things really start to go south. It could also be several years before the next crash. Hard to imagine this house of cards not collapsing within a year or two but everything is upside-down and nothing makes sense.

[@floesh-408]

Buy gold, bitcoin and preps.

[@laszlokovacs6154]

Floesh - bitcoin will be banned

[@bensavage6389]

Looking for a sound gold backed etf I can trust. I'm not predicting a collapse, just massive continued inflation.

[@floesh-408]

@@bensavage6389 If you don't hold it you don't own it, so buy physical gold. GDXJ as a paper gold bet on the junior mining companies.

[@sommi888]

🧡💛💚💙 Buy Bitcoin. Do it for Raoul. We love you ! 🧡💛💚💙

[@MrDurcon]

Trump isn't kidding, This Man is from New York..

[@stacyblaustein1228]

The guy can't even make money with a casino.

[@RC-hs1gh]

The greatest recession I see in Raoul's videos is his pants.

[@RC-hs1gh]

@-- I hope so....

[@kirstinstrand6292]

What a silly comment. You are either too old or too rigid. Jeans are comfy and Raoul is his own man. He is a trend setter...smile.

[@RC-hs1gh]

@@kirstinstrand6292 yeah, his own "Man" 😜

[@stacyblaustein1228]

Always wearing skinny jeans. I imagine his play list is all boy bands.

[@RC-hs1gh]

@@stacyblaustein1228 🤣🎤

[@jtavroh]

They agree sooooooo much with one another on this "Real Vision Finance ". Not a single dilemma between them. What a happy bunch of shills.

[@MagicMarker447]

Keeping the interest rates low compounds the pension problem as well. Pushing managers to invest in higher risk investments, since bond yield is so low. That is a very bad trend forcing older people into higher risk.

[@AP-fo3lp]

it's not fair how you talk about inflation. it's miss leading to the avg person.

[@christopherdennis4280]

Ok, so the thing they were talking about happened. The catalyst was Covid19. The election is over. Now what? Would love an update interview. Thanks!!

[@DavidisDawei]

END the Fed!

[@albertkang1052]

Kiril is a real EXPERT unlike some of the experts that RV or other may claim. Full respect!

[@sylviahu6849]

❤❤❤

[@mf29961]

So I'm watching this and thinking about my Boomer parent's 70 and 71. What should they be invested in short term (not to 24 months) to prevent any sudden jolt of a recession shock to equity and bond markets? Is it gold/silver etf, mining shares, cash? I thought we'd have a surge and a blow off top since yeilds curve inverted, but not I suspect the markets churn sideways and sudden drops when the official recession alarms go off.

[@ellesam3348]

mf29961 apparently once the yield curve is inverted it will take less than 22 months for the global market crash and recession we are heading to. So it’s on! Get ready!

[@kirstinstrand6292]

DWSH

[@kirstinstrand6292]

HDGE

[@Theo-dj7vs]

At 10:00 this what the financial ogars pump. Golds too complicated for people to understand...Rofl...the pompousness. if you can't understand gold get out of the investment market.

[@InvestingEducation]

The s&p500 has been through many recessions and even world wars. So in the longterm the current concerns r just speed bumps

[@hatac]

Raoul Paul you need to talk to someone that's looking at and investing in longevity, gene age reversal and nanotech/ 3d printers. The technologies of ending the pension problem by ending ageing! While ending the cost/ debt crisis by lowering the cost of living rather than paying the obligations or reneging on them. The technologists solution to macro economic problems. They may do to pension problems what fracking did to oil problems. Parliaments are spending on that. Some are arriving. What's the opposite of a black swan event?

[@jurbal1282]

Kiril is guy with socks. My kind of guy.

[@kirstinstrand6292]

Well, yeah, if you're wearing a suit...even without a tie. LOL

[@SuperBullyone]

ya, the other fellow is a bit old to be wearing jeans and no socks in an interview. not "cool."

[@laszlokovacs6154]

Just and other lier.

[@MrRaretunes]

I always thought I was smart.

[@colevincent5800]

There is lots of current relevance

[@crimesofthecentury2714]

Listening to his China segment it's clear he's tight into "SHYNA" and that's where he leans. "Unfortunate events" in Hong Kong, they are fighting for some basic rights. Enough said for me to take it all in with a grain of salt.

[@susanmann6436]

what happens when China claims to have twenty thousand tons of gold, not two tons?

[@bagpussmacfarlan9008]

Spidey sense 😄

[@bensavage6389]

Oh ya art laffer, great reputation

[@vancouveride]

Can't the government increase inflation at will? They own the printing press so why can't they debase the currency and increase inflation at will?

[@Joe-zs2vs]

Gold $3000 S&P 1400 by 2021

[@veeshannaicker4197]

Dow 5000 by 2022

[@boogyjuggy]

silver over $200

[@moqpoq]

Considering the high possibility of the currency wars, and really lack of the options, I think the US will choose to inflate itself out of the debt.

[@kirstinstrand6292]

That does not mean it will work as hoped.

[@stacyblaustein1228]

At the Feds Jackson Hole meeting last Wednesday it was leaked that the Fed "needs to consider replacing the USD with its own crypto". So there's that to consider. I'll give it 3 years. Then in about 15 years we'll get a violent micro nova that will fry every last electronic device on earth. Reset complete.

[@rafaellastracom6411]

Poor investor class, what will they do when they cannot live 'high on the hog' off the working class anymore? Poor things.

[@thor1186]

what about the political class & the welfare class?

[@moqpoq]

give me the break, well-positioned investors have plenty of the reserves to which will allow them to get throughout the downside until the new up-cycle will be back... the regular guy is the one who will suffer

[@sylance777]

Who are you defining as the 'investor' class? Am I that person living 'high on the hog' with my 20-year 401k that I've worked my ass off to pay into?

[@LibertarianRF]

Eh compared to the working class of 250,000 years to just 100years ago we the working class live like kings. Emergency medical, air conditioning etc etc. Cut income taxes sales taxes by 90% and watch the working class blossom. Jeff bezos can keep his billions....it's a couple of stocked up aircraft carriers. It's nothing..

[@LibertarianRF]

@@moqpoq how many regular guys are personally living way beyond their means? I drove a 2k car for 5 years and make 85k a year. The current one is 5k The 85k includes a part time job on top of a full time.

[@Natalie-rj4wx]

Free trade is not actually free when certain participants cheat. There is no such thing as free trade in this world.

[@ericguo8209]

Is Raoul Paul a perma Bear?

[@nellyblancaflor5559]

WHY ARE YOU SO AFRAID OF RECESSION? SIMPLE LIVING IS THE KEY TO PEACE AND HAPPINESS!

[@web2yt488]

Honestly, if you said that to me in person, I would laugh at you.

[@alejandrobolanos4655]

Raoul often dresses like the interviewee

[@MrSean03839]

Huh, he said China's exports to the US are only 1% of China's exports? Did I miss something? Exports to the US are somewhere around 650 billion. LoL!

[@andrewmckay2118]

They will use bail-in tactics to Wright off the det for the elites. At that point. I will be moving to crypto. If thay bail out the people That old system will go on but. The leftists globalist elites are the Problem if they don't give the working class the ability to by a house and by for a family.the west will fall apart in a globalist depression.

[@bens5454]

Exports to US, 1% of China's GDP... Try 5%

[@cujoemblakka1041]

The greedy shall loose their shirts, including their pants.

[@bensavage6389]

Theyll need a bailout of the shirt off your back working man.

[@christopherbussell8714]

Those with the greatest debt will lose their shirts. My house not if it has debt until the last penny is paid off. Show me the deeds. The bank holds the deeds. My car not until the last penny is paid back. My bank account no it's the banks money by law until you take the Money in the account in your name out. Then it is your worthless fiat money. The history of money teachers the debasement of money. All fiat paper money fails. The only true money for 5000 years is Gold and Silver. Electric cars buses and trucks need copper.

[@padadam29]

Kiril sounds like Christopher Walken haha

[@WhatYouSeeIsAllThereIs]

That guys pants and no socks is putting me off

[@user-nw5te4mo1q]

Third

[@nmslists1028]

Does this guy know that Bannon left the White House almost a YEAR ago??? Really undermines his basic grasp of facts.

[@hmmob3956]

As of today (08/26/2019) since 01/2018 the S&P 500 has gone exactly nowhere.

[@MrPUAsteel]

My S&P 500 etf has gone up 17% in the time frame

[@the_chiefe]

Final comment after having finished watching the whole video: In spite & despite a number of previously mentioned questionable statements made by both of them ("there's not enough inflation", really?!? whichever way both of them defines the term inflation, while there's too much monetary inflation & should we be aiming for a target inflation rate anyway?, Federal Reserve in danger of losing "independence"?!? LOL!!!), few other subsequent cringe-worthy moments e.g. when Kiril calls the Hong Kong unrest as "unfortunate", seems to make calls about China perhaps as he sees them w/out any moral element to it (it's indeed true that China's Belt & Road initiative is a massive re-capitalization capitalism project, but is majority of repressed society of China really THE hot entrepreneurial engine as he sees it?!? He seems to totally ignore all repugnant aspects of Chinese govt, coming back to calling things in agnostic manner w/out any moral observations) : There are still lot of gems in this video in spite & despite lot of these issues mentioned above. Kiril totally correctly observes the manipulated gold price discovery based on fake paper contract market. There are too many gems about observation of the bond market, esp. corporate bond market & lots of similar points. My overall mixed-bag observation is that despite a number of personal disagreements mentioned before, there's tons of valuable information in this video & watching all of it from beginning to end is still highly recommended. Unfortunately, I'm abstaining from either liking or disliking it due to such mixed-bag feelings.

[@michaelryd6737]

From 40 minutes on (finding opportunities)... His agenda is wide open and in plain sight (and it's not american)...

[@gulagga371]

Well. He is Russian.

[@Lawliet734]

This video is too long; needs to be under 10 minutes.

[@JR-lv6bx]

Bitcoin fixes this

[@cyruschadrezzar9873]

does it fix the environment as well?

[@naps3386]

Cyruschadrezzar The sun is the biggest influence on our climate. Human CO2 causing climate change is a lie.

[@cyruschadrezzar9873]

@@naps3386 you need to learn how to read.

[@68walter]

Cyruschadrezzar , he is just someone who copies and pastes the same comment everywhere...

[@JR-lv6bx]

@@cyruschadrezzar9873 BTC incentivizes clean energy. It turns energy into "gold"