A mathematician's view on asimov's psychohistory

[@cpmf2112]

I think the only way this could get started is the way Hari Seldon did it in the books, very quietly, not advertising in any way whatsoever. If people knew, they would actively try to find ways to give bad inputs to the model.

[@ppeev3003]

The second part of this lecture, starting at 41:00, is much more interesting than the first part of the lecture. The first part has too many formulas, integrals, sums, etc. that are difficult to follow. The second part is more meaningful - analyzing the society as a whole.

[@CV_CA]

Thanks

[@badlaamaurukehu]

Now... do the two parts mesh, and how?

[@martin36369]

I came up with a theory of a type of psychohistory which I called "Multi-Predictive Analysis" using Genetic Algorithms for a Neural Network Simulation using Metacomputing, in essence turning the Web into a computer as most of the raw data required is there, translating the data into all possible types of representations Surreals, different base systems etc in order to find patterns that may occur in a particular representation & not others & then applying all systems of analysis on those representations, such as Agent Based Modelling, Physics Based Modelling, Cycle Theory, Chaos Theory, Predictioneering, Hypergame Analysis etc to dovetail the predictions.

[@IoRoberto]

tell us a prediction for 2019....

[@rippspeck]

I came up with a way to make air smell funny using nothing but my own body.

[@badlaamaurukehu]

@@IoRoberto It happened. Welcome to 2020🎩👌 Edited because of cookies🤪

[@abababababa8]

Ah, but can you actually harness the computing power of the entire internet? You could grab a chunk of it using something like Seti@Home or the World Community Grid, but to apply all those forms of analysis to a large data set would still take a long time. Also, how do you "dovetail" the predictions of the multiple analysis?

[@chrono-nautsnekclawclan7160]

Good thoughts

[@3choblast3r4]

I'm reading the book for the first time. And psychohistory just reminds me of mass data and analytics/ statistics in marketing. Was Asimov a mathematician? How did he even come to think of such a thing. I, as some one that absolutely sucks at math and statistics wonder if I actually need to know some math and statistics to understand psychohistory on a deeper level, or just see it as a jibberish plot device.

[@topdog5252]

I mean, the clearest inspiration for psychohistory I think, would be statistical mechanics in physics, which was pioneered by J. C. Maxwell (building on the work in D. Bernoulli’s book Hydrodynamica) and then others like L. Boltzmann and J. W. Gibbs who built on the work of Maxwell. I know Asimov was a mostly a chemist and statistical mechanics is very closely related with the kinetic theory of gases and parts of chemistry. You can analyse masses (trillions and trillions of particles) of atoms and molecules and how they interact statistically because there are so many and there are some deep results to be found there. It is also related to thermodynamics - Boltzmann came up with a formula for entropy that was based on statistical mechanics. There is even an intuitive explanation of entropy we get from Boltzmann in terms of giant numbers of particles jiggling around and interacting - look up R. Feynman’s lecture on entropy. He doesn’t mention the word entropy once, and he excellently presents the intuitive explanation of such a tricky idea. Asimov was also very aware of the history of science (he wrote books on it) and must have been aware of statistical physics and it’s power. Also, curiously enough I noticed in 2022 a Fields Medal (the most prestigious award in mathematics, like the Nobel Prize) was awarded to French mathematician Hugo Duminil-Copin for pioneering work in part of the mathematics of statistical physics - something called the Ising Model. Also Duminil-Copin’s Phd Advisor was Stanislav Smirnov who also won the Fields Medal in 2010 for deep mathematical results on the Ising Model in statistical physics. Another Fields Medal of 2010 was awarded to Cedric Villani for work on the Boltzmann equation in statistical physics. That’s at least 3 Fields Medals in the last 12 years (they’re only awarded every 4 years) that came out of statistical physics, so there is clearly some very rich mathematics there. I also recommend looking up Villani’s Hamilton Lecture - it touches on many topics that might be relevant to psychohistory, like chaos theory (an early case of this type of effect was a discovery of H. Poincare, trying to solve the 3 body problem in celestial mechanics). It does make you wonder what level of statistics might be possible if you were mathematically advanced enough, and the society in question, was big enough for statistical methods to be most effective. What kinds of things could you predict? I’m no mathematician yet myself but my dad is a statistician. I wonder what he would make of psychohistory. Maybe it could have some sort of believability. In real life, the history of science, especially fundamental physics, is full of examples of mathematics being ridiculously powerful and effective at predicting nature. If you did need some powerful tool like psychohistory as a plot device in your story, I think mathematics is a safe bet for that plot device, based on the real history of science, where it’s effectiveness can seem uncanny.

[@badlaamaurukehu]

@41:00 for actual Asimov

[@ozgeozcelik8921]

statistical data mining of humanities, psychology, law and finance

[@badlaamaurukehu]

Tablets

[@3choblast3r4]

Spotted the fellow Turk

[@ozgeozcelik8921]

So ashamed of my old comments

[@3choblast3r4]

@@ozgeozcelik8921 Hahah, don't worry about it, we've all written some weird stuff at one point or the other.

[@andrieslouw3811]

Is it psychohistory or psychofuture? The psychowaves of development vs regression vs stagnation. I dont get the lecture because not mathematician. But we dearly need a harry seldon now.