A simple Betfair football trade explained - In depth

I did a really simple Betfair football trade this week that anybody could do. But there was a fair amount of logic that went behind it.
Doing a decent trade is one thing, being long term profitable is another. So this video explains the thought process that went on for this trade.
I use a mixture of my knowledge and statistics and a bit of trading logic to pull off this trade.

[@JamesofQPR]

Very good Peter!

[@chrisefc3579]

Thankyou for this one Peter, I saw this at the time you released it and made notes but seeing it again made me value the points even more you make here. Appreciated sir.

[@thescallytrader]

I watched this video today then Southampton went 0-1 up against Newcastle I remembered the stats and laid Southampton. They lost 2-1. At least they are consistent. Thanks Peter.

[@betangeltv]

Y, some teams don't own any pets as they couldn't hold on the lead.

[@sean19sfc]

Brave to trad whilst in the stadium. The amount of times I struggle to get single in St Marys because the 4G is overloaded I’d be worried I couldn’t trade out. Up the Saints.

[@paulwilkinson5656]

This is one of the best videos you've ever done Peter. the screen shot (at 17mins) isn't from ya phone, were you on laptop?

[@betangeltv]

I remoted into Bet Angel by using a VPS on my phone. So the screenshot came from that.

[@oliverwarren9057]

Peter great to see you going into depth on the football markets - one question; where do you commonly look to collect your xG stats and data from? I see it increasingly being examined and wondered if you had any pointers.

[@betangeltv]

The infogol app provides semi real time data and is worth a look.

[@peznino1]

Hi Peter, I notice you said you were looking for a 1 in 4 or 1 in 5 chance of Norwich scoring. If you are only getting 2 to 1 back typically on your stake as we see you doing here, how does it make it a long term winning trade i.e. +EV?

[@betangeltv]

I didn't explain it very well or give structure to it. My bad!

[@jazzylaffy]

HI Peter - yet another great video (for which many thanks!) I have a quick question about the momentum graphics you used - presumably from an app like SofaScore. How reliable do you find them for games where you can't watch live video? I happened to be following the recent Man City v Man Utd game via Sofa Score and according to the momentum indicators City were throwing the kitchen sink into getting back into the game and still they lost. I realise this was just one game, but over a wider set do you make explicit use of momentum, and if so how?

[@betangeltv]

Football can be highly variable. So it's not impossible to have information that points firmly in one direction, only to see something else happen by fluke. So you have to take that into account with any trading strategy,

[@tonyburn]

I lay my team when playing. If they win, happy days, its like I bought it. If they lose, consolation prize with the money. 'The Man' doesn't know what to do lol. Btw, I follow NUFC ;-)

[@betangeltv]

#insurance

[@tonyburn]

@@betangeltv Happy to lose this one lol. How we won that is anyones guess because we are shite lol

[@garypegler6707]

Really interesting video. I wonder what price Norwich were with the bookmakers to score the next goal at the point you made that trade? As the trade you made only wins if Norwich score next. I guess if Southampton did go 3-0 up then you could save some of your stake but surely they are 1.01 at that point? Also the fixed odds bet has no time decay and would still profit on a Norwich goal with just a few minutes to go where the trade would already be dead at that point.

[@betangeltv]

There are other ways to achieve a result without having to take a direct loss. It just depends on your attitude to risk.

[@garypegler6707]

I would be interested to know what you would have done and when if no Norwich goal came. Maybe that would make a good video too. Thanks again, videos with real life examples of trades are the most valuable.

[@elastronaute1198]

Can I just say though, while this is a nice trade, given what you knew about the sentiment of the match and the numerous inflection points, you actually risked £100 and you made a profit of just over £200, so effectively 2/1. So you still have to be right about a goal going in at least 33% of the time to even break even (I understand the payoff could be more had the goal come earlier, or less if it'd come later - but I mean on average). Am I wrong here? Secondly, what do you use for all your stats?

[@betangeltv]

I didn't explain it very well or give structure to it. My bad!

[@betangeltv]

infogol produces good semi real time Xg data. But quite a few sites pop up more and more data now.

[@peznino1]

@@betangeltv Hi Peter, can I suggest this was in fact a bad trade that just so happened to work out. Basically, there's a very short window for a goal to go in to make this trade work. I'm guessing you really only have about a 10 minute window for that Norwich goal to go in after which point the trade becomes almost a certain loser. I do however see a logic in that if the Xg stats are favourable enough such that 2 goals are likely in the time left (can't imagine that being the case here but I've not seen the stats) then taking a position has huge upside should they come in quick succession. I would love to take a course with you Peter. You have wonderful ability to communicate all things betting, trading, psychology and so on. I am not at all active but still watch your videos purely for the great and entertaining exposition of ideas. Unfortunately I did not have the discipline which I believe resulted from not having enough confidence in my approach and methods to make a successful go if it in the past. I believe that could be rectified with proper training.

[@danielhorrocks8389]

hi peter just wondering where is best place buy a multi monitor pc from like yours as im struggling find a bundle

[@betangeltv]

You have several options. A few years ago you had to buy a graphics card that was specific to what you wanted to do. But now it's easy to buy USB to display adaptors. So I'd recommend them. For the stand I used a professional grade Ergotron stand. But again, you can choose cheaper options.

[@mickyc1479]

Which site/app do you use to review xG in-play?

[@betangeltv]

Info Gol is quite useful and easy to use.

[@lewistaylor9340]

What is XG?

[@betangeltv]

Expected goals, have a look at the other videos I've done on this.

[@lewistaylor9340]

betangeltv thanks for the reply, I will check out other videos.

[@hoanqdev]

Can you share how to control the bankroll for betting

[@thescallytrader]

Use 1 or 2% of your entire bank. Concentrate on Risk and you shouldn't go far wrong. If you think your stakes are too small with 1% risk it is your account that is too small. Most people Risk 30% of their bank and it gets smashed up. Everybody does it.

[@betangeltv]

Agree

[@hoanqdev]

@@betangeltv thank you @@

[@DKCboy1]

Is there a site that gives xG for an upcoming game? All the ones I have seen are retrospective.

[@betangeltv]

xG is a retrospective measure, InfoGol publish live Xg stats. That may help you.

[@Gracievision]

I would argue that isn't a trade but a bet using a trading process.

[@betangeltv]

It's not the clearest trade, but it does have an entry, exit and loss taking process. So framing it that way allows me to measure and treat it as a trade.

[@ncszy]

@GracieVision Why don't you do a video on trading since you're such an expert?