A Strategic Analysis of the Russo-Ukraine War: An Update | Richard Iron CMG OBE

The Russo-Ukraine War is the bloodiest, most extensive and most dangerous war of our time. It has now been eighteen months since Russia's invasion of Ukraine and nine months since Richard Iron's last strategic analysis of the war. There is absolutely no certainty of how this war will evolve over the coming months nor how, eventually, it might end.
Richard Iron will explore the effectiveness of Ukrainian counter offences and the consequences of the battle over the Black Sea, an increasingly important area of military and geopolitical tensions. He will look particularly at the state of Russian internal politics, Putin's authority after the Wagner Group mutiny and the possibility of regime collapse.
Can either side achieve their military goals? How is Western support for Ukraine holding up in light of recent events? What does this mean for Ukraine's future?

[@andrzej6286]

it's badass to see Perun get a shout out like this. Idk how he doesn't have a job in the institute at this point.

[@AnimeSunglasses]

He's implied that he works in or with Aussie federal procurement...

[@thegorefatherdonkhorneleon5159]

How do you know he doesn't and he is not a psy-op propagandist? Have you verified what he says is even true? I doubt it.

[@Valiguss]

Conspiracy theory he is Richard iron

[@andrew6096]

Pretty impressive to see Perun get a mention is such a setting

[@shanehumphries2392]

yes i thick so

[@michaziomek]

@PerunAU

[@danwylie-sears1134]

Agreed.

[@BalbazaktheGreat]

Indeed!

[@kalervolatoniittu2011]

Yep

[@tayday424]

I'm a game developer working on a CivSim and I've found Perun to be an absolute wealth of knowledge and perspective. Great to shout him out.

[@helenmcinerney1058]

I think Silicon Curtain did an interview with him

[@egoborder3203]

ok great news

[@dreadedjay1323]

That's awesome! Is there a name or anything public about the project? I'm curious. Got my interest.

[@tayday424]

@@dreadedjay1323 thank you, that's really kind ☺ The working title is "Statecraft" but that's subject to change. I do post videos from time to time on the progress on my channel. Its still some ways off from even a beta release and the first one will likely be pretty primitive in depth, but it is a passion project of mine and I do intend to refine it over quite a long term.

[@dreadedjay1323]

@@tayday424 love it!! Keep it up!!!

[@sparkyfromel]

the ultimate word about fighting from Mike Tyson , world heavyweight boxing champion " you get in having a plan ... then someone punch you in the face "

[@baggarra13]

@jeannickguerin2867 one correction to your comment, if I may...it's "then someone punch you in the faith" 😂

[@aymonfoxc1442]

​@@baggarra13In some ways, that applies even better in the context of the Russo-Ukrainian War. There was obviously a plan and I suspect it was rather detailed; covering political concerns, popular cultural figures to rounded up and disappeared, who the ruling oligarchs would be, etc. Russia thought quickly establishing a puppet regime that matched Moscow's narratives about Nazis, genocide and coccaine would lend Putin's war some credibility. The only part that was lacking was the military element and the collapse around Kyiv and Kharkiv certainly looked like one nation with a plan getting punched in the face by another nation that had a different outcome in mind. Ukraine had some defensive plans but they were sometimes insufficient. The politics has been an evolving and organic process. So too, has Ukraine's message to the world and global support for Ukraine has evolved continuously. The US, for example, planned to support a Ukrainian insurgency on their occupied homelands. Ukraine's haymaker outside Kyiv didn't only surprise the invaders; it caught the world's governments off guard and they all had to adjust their plans as a result.

[@jochentram9301]

“No plan of operations extends with certainty beyond the first encounter with the enemy's main strength.” Hellmuth von Moltke the Elder. The notion is likely much older than that, though.

[@jeffcooper7258]

He's right. Perun is really good. All hail Power Point Man!

[@gff6929]

For real

[@alexlazar4738]

Perun is a master of obfuscating the truth by information overload. Personally, I suspect him of being an AI.

[@alexisjuillard4816]

Yeah I'm starting to get withdraw symptoms, its not even because i quit PCP, rather my last dose of PPPP (Perun PowerPoint Presentation) was 6 days ago, i can last a week before i completely break down

[@sugandesenuds6663]

PowerPoint Daddy!

[@thegorefatherdonkhorneleon5159]

Perun is full of crap. You believe an anonymous gamer doing internet powepoints who pretends to know more than distinguished career military and intel people? The only people who are bigger morons than Perun are the people who buy into his propaganda.

[@BeyondHomeCooking]

You all need to go find Perun. He is a national treasure of yours.

[@donerskine7935]

Iron credited Perun early on in the speech. Perun on KZbin is essential listening for those concerned with the Ukraine war, military strategy , and current geopolitics.

[@76boromir]

By far one of the most down to earth, no nonsense, to the point analysis I have watched to date.

[@jacobcarter5223]

Been a perun fan for last 6 months nice to see him getting credit

[@chiddleychidds4917]

is the date on this right? I feel bad for this guy

[@pmcg5200]

He's just another talking head. Making a living from talking shit.

[@NathansHVAC]

The data is all true. It is impossible for ukrane to lose as long as trump isn't elected. These are the guys that brought us iraq and covid

[@sowelie1]

Good summarizing, but I very much doubt Russians are losing more man while Ukranians are attacking. When Russians were the attackers we were told that attackers MUST loose at least x2 more man.

[@DARDA360]

It depends on how the attacks are carried out - tactics and rhythm are big variables.

[@sowelie1]

@@DARDA360 tell me one modern battle where attacker without air supperiority, fighting similar, entranchened opponent, had smaller casulties. It's a dream.

[@Puffball-ll1ly]

450k dead Ukraine 🇺🇦 maybe 50k Russian : Scott Ritter

[@rklkify]

@@Puffball-ll1ly Scott Ritter the convicted paedophile, great source of information

[@rklkify]

@@sowelie1 By using dispersion and decentralisation. When Ukraine attacks in heavy concentrattion, the mass allows Russian artillery to target the attack better, which usually results in heavy casulties. So ukraine now uses smaller unit attacks so they can only grab smaller bits of land little by little, and if a assault isn't successful less people are lost. Though Ukraine is on the offensive, Russia has been conducting large counter attacks that while usually don't retake land, are able to pin down ukraine units and prevent further break throughs but at the cost of heavy casualties. Not to mention while Russia has a slight advantage in the amount of Artillery it has, Ukraine has the advantage of better precision and a bit more range on platforms like Himars and drones.

[@stuartjenkins1734]

He’s no Doug Macgregor

[@eezaak21]

Perun! Fuck yeah!

[@dylanthomas12321]

Difficult to end, and how they end. Witness Afghanistan, Iraq, vietnam, Korea. I hope future US Presidents, advisors, and Congressmen are listening.

[@nalindownanout3052]

Don’t think Russia would runaway like US did!!

[@antonyjh1234]

Let's not forget USA currently occupies a third of Syria, for oil.

[@FiikusMaximus]

​@@nalindownanout3052it won't be a matter of choice. Russia can't afford to keep the war up indefinitely, just like US wasn't able to. It's not a matter of cowardice or whatever you're alluding to.

[@cheriemorey4728]

Russia lost its war with Afghanistan earlier so they probably did runaway. America had spent enough time there, it was the Afghanistani army that ran away and their President taking lots of the countries money with him. An absolute disgrace compared to Ukraine's brave president.

[@cheriemorey4728]

Country's

[@CeasarSvalad]

The russian trolls don't seem to like this video so he must be right.

[@codeysimmons790]

^ This.

[@robynsullivan9633]

You forgot to check your premise (you know, with reasoned argument)...Ah well, garbage in ----> garbage out as the mathematicians say. By the way, if it's ok to call people who support the Russ ian position 'Russian trolls', then I'm guessing you won't mind if I wanted to call you a CIA troll? Or perhaps you may be able to find the flaw?

[@jsgr79]

he not right is is full of shit . Living in fantasy world.

[@stefansekulic7903]

Yeh,they always chime in while citing experts such as Scott Ritter and that general MacGregor idiot who have already announced the fall of Ukraine over twenty times.

[@Kefuddle]

Looking pretty stupid now.

[@keithmiller4168]

Why on earth does the most cogent, realistic and best analysis come from down under for heavens sake. Perun and Irons rule.

[@Piaseczno1]

Perhaps the Australian military forces and analysts aren't dealing with gender identities and other such noise getting in the way of worthy analysis.

[@keithmiller4168]

​@@Piaseczno1😂😅

[@carlosrivas5386]

I immediately closed the video after hearing the "strategist" referring to the "3-day war". I would understand this coming from propagandist media, but no as par of an analysis.

[@The_real_sock_puppet_account]

he talks about ukraine needs 4 and 5th gen fighter jets then talks about F16s they are gen 3 the mig29 is a better fighter than the f16 ukraine lost them all

[@Executioner9000]

Wow Perun is really making the rounds...

[@LukeMulks]

When one of very few data points presented is a CNN poll. 🤣

[@firstborn7370]

😂 😂 😂 😂 😂 CNN 😂 😂 😂 😂 😂 CNN 😂 😂 😂 😂 😂

[@Kavala76]

And let's not forget the Navalny research also 🤣

[@karsten11553]

Perun! Love it:D

[@egoborder3203]

enjoy your Western propaganda Kool-Aid

[@karsten11553]

@@egoborder3203 better spend those rubles quickly, Ivan, they are getting more and more worthless ❤️

[@tatyanamikoyan9953]

Another question, regarding the 5% support for the war in Russia. What do they mean by "real support" for the war? Is Richard trying to say that 95% of the Russians are either indifferent, or actually wish for their country to lose the war? One must understand, that Kiev's current position is such that there is no way for Russia to end the war without either outright winning, or completely losing the conflict. There does not seem to be a middle-ground for negotiations. If so, then the 5% figure is highly questionable at best.

[@HotakaPeter]

At about 5:20 the speaker states that Russia went on the offensive. Sorry that is not how I remember things. Sure they built the defensive lines, I agree. The only place they really took the offensive was in Bakmut, and this may have been on the initiative of Progohzin, who is now dead.

[@josefchmelar9070]

Bachmut was the main one, but also Avdijivka, Vuhledar, ...

[@rklkify]

you don't remember them because they wheren't successful

[@HotakaPeter]

@@rklkify It really does not matter. What matters now is the choice every Ukrainian soldier must make today. Surrender or die.

[@lucaanedda1526]

Looks like you just lay out a list of wishes. Not to many data. I was expecting a little bit more from the analysis.

[@Peter.F.C]

Wishful thinking is not analysis. Although sometimes is entertaining. Sadly not this time.

[@starcorpvncj]

This was no analysis. It was nothing short of an unprofessional farce actually.

[@08yallvon]

he cannot say more cuz UA is far away from AU and the info pass through CNN filters. 😂😂😂

[@stefansekulic7903]

What would you like to hear? Russia is winning? Nice joke, they hold 17% of Ukraine after 19 months including Crimea. Maybe their goal is to bankrupt themselves.

[@stanroberts1500]

Very comprehensive account of the Ukrainian war to date.

[@paulpell]

Very comprehensive but completely wrong.........just the usual Western propaganda.

[@thomasgade226]

See William Spaniel about the many Wagner resources that Russia needed to take over (in Russia, Africa, Belarus etc) before Preggo could be eliminated. Tanks, blood gold, mercenaries etc are now transferred from Wagner to Ministry of Defense.

[@mivapusa]

Update: Ukraine breached the Suroviken line.

[@jossiesh7649]

Dreaming

[@gdiwolverinemale4th]

So say CNN and MSNBC .... information received straight from Kiev and Pentagon. Sadly, the soldiers on the battlefield are unaware of it.

[@sisyphusvasilias3943]

LOL for that to be true they'd have be south of Tokmak. UA has reported had a few DRGs die attacking the First (of three) main defenses line, they have 20kms of defenses to get through. All their units have now been committed, summer is almost over and they have only managed to get themselves trapped in a pocket, sorrounded on three sides by RF forces who are on the high ground.

[@chevergara3139]

In their dreams maybe 😂

[@chevergara3139]

@@sisyphusvasilias3943 precisely 👍

[@user-sb3cg1gh7y]

Excellent lecture. I live in Russia and can confirm that the overall situation in Russia is deteriorating. Prices go up but real income remains the same. In essence, the food prices have doubled in a year;. The support of Putin's regime is really wide but people don't want to fight; they support war as long as it doesn't touch them personally. Everyone fears to be drafted and sent into Ukraine. This constant psychological pressure drives alcohol consumption.

[@robertandrzejczyk]

The same in Poland.

[@sugandesenuds6663]

Russians and alcoholism are a match made in heaven

[@tayday424]

I'm sorry this all has come to pass in your country. Sometimes being the citizen of a great nation is terrifying as we always know how to make the biggest mess. I'm just hoping the world can get through this one day and good people can live well.

[@clarkkent7024]

I'm pretty sure that you're neither a Russian nor live in Russia. You're a shill!🤡

[@seastorm1979]

Living next to russia is a constant pain in the ass, it´s like having a neighbour with severe mental problems.

[@davidgellatly1975]

Not all wars end in compromise. As Mr. Irons himself noted, truly overwhelming coercion can force unconditional surrender as was the case with Germany and Japan in WWII. Both sides unconditionally surrendered to the allies, and were occupied with varying degrees of severity with the occupiers dictating the future structure of the country and their societies. Western Germany was restructured on the model of the Anglo-Saxon democracy. Eastern Germany was rebuilt as a "socialist workers paradise" until the Soviets were no longer there to "guide" East Germany, at which time it defaulted to the Anglo-Saxon model, with both parts focused on German prosperity to exclusion of a pragmatic, defense against the possibility of Russian expansionism. Having the Poles between themselves and an expansionist Russia was no doubted an added benefit. Japan was likewise was restructured from a militaristic, racist, and expansionist military power into a pacifistic, economic power. The only concession that the Japanese were able to wring of their victors was to allow the Emperor to remain on the throne as a figure head; something one could argue was both a rational and pragmatic approach to having a more successful and cooperative occupation.

[@jansix4287]

You didn’t pay attention. WW2 ended with the dissolution of the British and French Empires and the rise of Germany and Japan in the new age of globalization. Look at the G7, half of them are Axis powers. WW1 ended without compromise and therefore you’ve got WW2. Now compromise doesn’t mean that Russia or China will get what they want, only what they deserve. It’s up to them to make something of their opportunity of peaceful trade with the West or being isolated and crushed. The outcome is the same, globalization is marching on with or without you.

[@Broockle]

Compromises always reflect the status of each faction to continue the war. If you want the war to be over more desperately then you will give up more to stop it. It is unlikely for a war to end in a 50-50 compromise where each side has an even amount of say. If you surrender you give all control to the other side. So it's still a compromise in that sense, one side just has all the say 😅 And in the case of the occupancies those had negotiations on a regular basis until the allies were happy with where things were going. I'd say that was a compromise that just took years to develop. The occupancy itself was also part of it. I get what you mean tho. But it's unlikely that either Ukraine or Russia will surrender, so discussing a likely compromise scenario makes a lot of sense here.

[@DARDA360]

You have an idealistic view of Europeans. You may research von Ardenne Pact to better understand German Long Game. Germany and France tried to get rid of American influence via Russian ambitions and Energy. Now that this strategy failed they are in search of a new approach. Next step for them is to realise the role China could play. There are no "solutions", only trade-offs.

[@jansix4287]

@@DARDA360 Nothing failed, Russia just entered the phase where they learn with the stick and not the carrot. Whereas America under Biden after Trump is back on the carrot treatment. 🥕

[@Broockle]

@@jansix4287 w8 is the stick holding the carrot in this metaphor....? 😖

[@chevergara3139]

Full of BS... This analysis 😅😅😅

[@Joe.Kramer]

Love the shout-out to Perun! ❤🎉

[@chiddleychidds4917]

Perun is great I don't share allot of his assumptions on the causes for the war but he's great all the same one of the better youtubers out there

[@user-ozziegonzo]

Wow that was a great source of information. This is the 2nd I’ve watched and both have been great. And good to see some recognition of perun work. Thank you.

[@jeremianlastly7668]

Heck yeah! So cool that Perun got a shout out from these guys! Edit- Even _more_ cool to scroll down in the comments and see all the love in the comments for Perun too! Lol

[@Abyss-Walker-189]

Don't mind me, just leaving a like and a comment to drive up engagement. Have a nice day!

[@urantia487]

More talks about russian weakness but less on ukraine when the opposite is true..

[@TheDynamicmarket]

it is sad to see an institute distributing propaganda. talk about european growth, germany is in a recession! what if russia becomes the economy the size of ussr after ww2? what if russia becomes n. korea? what will happen? what happened to iraq and afghanistan when the us left? are iraq and afghanistan western partners or bigger threats? is the anti-western sentiment bigger or smaller in the middle east?

[@urantia487]

@@TheDynamicmarket exactly. The curse liberal wokism where governments and institutions allows themselves to be used by these new woke religio culture. The west/ US for years planned and provocked this war; lyying all along through the medias and institutions all in the name of democracy and freedom and humanity! Iraq? Lybia? Syria etcetc..their trails of destructions and death; all driven the arrogant egoistic global hedgmonism mentality But the most idiotic ae re the european; allowing themselves to become the shoe shining boy for USA. Why cant we all live and let live and share the world together. Prosper together. So sad. In this case, Russia is on the right side of history.

[@helloicanseeu2]

he's pro ukraine, ofc, there will be bias.

[@jasonmardoniomeza1711]

12:30.....exactly! Not even the American army would proceed with a counter offensive without having air support backing them up.

[@horstnietzsche1923]

If that's true why does Ukraine want long range US army missiles? Idk man I understand what he's getting at but is that actually true? The US army has a larger population to pull from more and better equipment I'm not saying it wouldn't be super costly buy impossible? I choose X.

[@jasonmardoniomeza1711]

@@horstnietzsche1923 I've heard many ex U.S. soldiers on line saying that it is crazy to think about going on a counter offensive without any air support. The Ukranians have asked for a no fly zone being placed over Ukraine since Putin invaded back on February 24th 2022 but we're denied. The reason given is because this could anger Putin and we are afraid that Putin may respond using nuclear weapons. Ukranians for over 12 months have asked for F-16 fighter jets , different types of tanks , and longer range missle systems. Each time they were denied by the west for the same reasons. That they are afraid it may anger Putin and push him to use nuclear weapons. Meanwhile as months go by Putin and his Russian forces are bombing Ukranian cities and civilian infrastructures in Ukraine. The West finally does approve eventually after months and months of time goes by for different types of tanks to be given to Ukraine. My point is the west is very slowly giving Ukraine tanks and now approving them to have F-16 jets but the jets won't be sent until next year and during all these delays and waiting Ukranian civilians and Ukranian defense forces are being killed. The Atacams missle systems that Ukraine has been asking for over a year now have a range of 300 miles. This would allow Ukraine to destroy every military base , weapons depot , and logistical hub that Russia has in Crimea and in all the Ukranian territories that Russia currently controls. Crimea would be liberated in a matter of weeks in my opinion if the west approved the release of Atacams to Ukraine. But they have not. The reason? We are afraid it may anger Putin and push him to use nuclear weapons. Smh but anyway back to Ukraine's current counter offensive. This is not like last years counter offensive when Ukraine liberated Kharkiv and huge parts of Kherson. Once the Ukranians did this late last year they wanted to continue going forward over the winter and asked the U.S. and the West for the weapons to do so but were told to wait. The west told them we will give you these tanks and other weapons but you must wait until they arrive. Well they didn't arrive until the following year and this waiting allowed the Russians to dig trenches and build up defense lines with anti tank dragons teeth which are these huge triangle shaped pieces of concrete used to stop a tank from going forward as well as laying thousands of landmines all over the area. This is what has stalled the Ukranian counter offensive and it is all because the west is denying in full or approving but then taking too long too deliver the weapons and equipment that Ukraine is asking for. But when I hear American news casters or American Generals or people in America complaining that this latest counter offensive is a failure or taking too long it angers me because America knew that with no air support like helicopters or Jets that this counter offensive would be slow going. And having no air support for the Ukranian soldiers is all because of the west and America not giving air support to them. They are to blame and not the ukranians who have been asking and begging for air support for 18 months now. It makes me start to think that maybe the U.S. wants a longer drawn out war instead of a quicker victory for Ukraine in order to weaken and destroy Russias military as much as possible. But at the expense of civilian Ukranian lives and Ukranian soldiers lives????

[@bobfry5267]

Not all wars end. Even a glance at Balkan and Caucasus and Levantine history will show that. Some of those wars are as old as the peoples that inhabit them. There are just long intervals in activity.

[@ba5386]

So many like this speaker don’t contribute to the productive economy. Sad state of affairs

[@khorenadanalyan2685]

Was a torture to be able to listen to the end. People who been able to , you must have nerves of steel .

[@alexlazar4738]

Agreed. My nerves are sensitive so I gave up at 56 minute. It's incredible to what levels of dishonesty and self-deception people can get just to keep their jobs and positions. But don't they realize the harm they are doing to mankind or had they just convinced themselves they are the good guys?

[@madrooky1398]

Wow so many words to say nothing at all. Why are you guys even commenting? I mean seriously, what is your actual critique? Might be its worth talking about.

[@constantquestioning4010]

@@alexlazar4738 Entirely agree

[@helloicanseeu2]

he spoke slowly deliberately and clearly

[@allthecoolnamesaretaken10]

I'm at minute 49, hope to finish this

[@technologyandsociety21C]

Russia should immediately withdraw from all Ukraine territory, including Crimea, and then declare Victory.

[@Shannon-Smith]

They can't becasue they have annexed it. Legally in Russia it's Russian territory. They no longer have the ability to do so and in fact, their military doctrine dictates that if they can't hold onto Russian territory that the military is permitted to use nuclear weapons to keep it (no politician approval required)

[@hazzardalsohazzard2624]

​@@Shannon-SmithThe Russians aren't treating it like their territory. Russian Nuclear Doctrine is to protect their territory with nuclear weapons. They didn't respond to the Belgorod Raid and they're not responding with nukes to the current offensive.

[@gumby2241]

it would be nice to hear something besides baseless assertions, i felt like I was hearing a CIA briefing to the neocon nuland crowd. pretty disappointing.

[@michaelmullins3396]

When he spoke about 5% support for the special military operations by RUSSIA, any respect for the previous view on him that I had instantly evaporated .

[@rose-mariemukarutabana9001]

Absolutely. He and his audience are in cloud cockoo...

[@robynsullivan9633]

Any western and Ukrainian comments always seem to be a projection of themselves. So 5 % support for Putin within Russia is therefore really 95% support (it's actually about 85 to 95% so close enough). Boot this idiot from his job, he is solely a parrot of US 'speak' on the war.

[@Kavala76]

40:51 His source was polling for Alex Navalny's Anti Corruption Foundation. About as biased as you could find. Iron never mentions Putin's continued 80% approval rating within Russia.

[@michaelmullins3396]

@@rose-mariemukarutabana9001 There’s a conglomeration of them in Australia similar to Britain feeding from the military industrial trough and the people of Australia who have no dog in the fight , Russia or China are absolutely no threat to Australia, but as long as these goons get their financial Reward from the MIC, all at the expense of the Australian people these goons don’t care. Iron is taking the MIC.

[@harryconsu3746]

@Michael he has no knowledge of the subject, simply reciting Western mainstream media nonsense - he's unaware that the peace agreement negotiated in Istanbul was scuttled by Boris Johnson.

[@stephencalcutt8396]

Didn't the Russian and Donbas Ukrainians engage in active defence throughput the winter? The exception taking control of Bahkmut. I heard the Russians have significant reserves yet to be committed to battle.

[@meshzzizk]

no, they attempted a diffuse set of offensive operations last winter, all of which amounted to little in the way of territorial gains with the exception of the advance toward bakhmut, which only culminated in the taking of the city months later.

[@meshzzizk]

no one really knows what quantity of reserve units russia has available. it’s a hotly debated subject because the ukrainian theory of how the counteroffensive can still succeed depends on russia’s deeper defensive lines in zapporizhia being poorly manned and thus vulnerable should they achieve a real breakthrough. meanwhile there are conflicting reports concerning the size of russian troop concentrations near the kupyansk front in the north. time will tell.

[@blackfeatherstill348]

Any theory that any Ukraine counter offensive can succeed is absurd and unrealistic. Ukraine and NATO are done.

[@ginojaco]

You must have bloody awful hearing then, because the word inside and outside Russia is that there is nothing and nobody left.

[@peterbramstrup6517]

@@peripheral1258 exactly😃

[@ducaleadan39]

I Will Do My Country What You Do Your Country. We Are Sane . Every Citizen Must Defend His Country.

[@casfren]

14:00 Is the guys just extremely wrong, and actually means the retired soldier Ryan MCbeth? He is amazing, perun level, but nothing shows up as MCryan. And if it is i have to say, this damages his credibility.

[@nidalhanna9675]

Biased bs

[@maxheadrom3088]

His opening remarks about the wounded combatent were impressive!

[@egoborder3203]

how so?

[@robinstevenson6690]

Excellent presentation!

[@JinKee]

Perun has hit the big leagues.

[@AlexJones-ew6nn]

Who pays that guy? 😅😅😅😅😅😅😅😅😅

[@sergioalcantar3290]

Astounding, at 59:37 he's asked 'Why did Putin start this war?' Didn't the Australian Education system not cover the Cuban Missile Crisis (to include the removal of missiles from Turkey and Italy?), The Monroe Doctrine? the U.S. 'Manifest Destiny' and subsequent Mexican-American War?, The U.S. Philippine War? The promises made by Sec. Baker, or does the world at large believe this agreement were all one-sided with such an adversary? I'll stop here but, really, Is this the best perspective-coverage offered by the Australian Institute of International Affairs?

[@henryterranauta9100]

☠️☠️This is an Iron Curtain hawk ☠️☠️ 49:25 Great analysis, well balanced Yeahs and Nyes🇷🇺🇷🇺On one hand… the battlefields🇺🇦🇺🇦On the hand… coercion🇺🇦🇺🇦🇷🇺🇷🇺 The bottom line of this speech is skepticism e.g., the defeat and ceding Donbass to Russia. 👏🏼👏🏼👏🏼👏🏼 Kudos for such elegant lecture which ends with unbelief in the unconditional defeat of Ukraina. Some spin doctoress plausibly had a say in writing the final version of this propaganda for the prowar, conservative think tanks in D.C. 🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦 Sieg Heil Russia 🇷🇺🇷🇺🇷🇺🇷🇺 Delenda Ucrania 🎪🎪🎪🎪🎪🎪🎪🎪🎪🎪🎪🎪 54:57

[@alhambrabiker1476]

@@henryterranauta9100According to Putin, Putin’s war objectives were to stop NATO expansion, demilitarizing and denazyfing Ukraine. Putin already failed with his war objectives. NATO is expanding. Look at Finland and Sweden. Ukraine is militarizing with NATO weapons instead of demilitarizing.

[@TDurden527]

shill

[@smillner771]

Lots of non-sequitors there. In Feb 2022 Ukraine was in a hopeless situation and Putin had the country where he wanted it. Putin then gambled and it hasn't exactly worked out well. Why Putin, who was previously regarded as being strategically astute, started the war, is an interesting question.

[@carlbervin8183]

Putin's invasion of Ukraine is his war of subjegation against the people and state of Ukraine who he doesn't believe exists as a country even now and has no right to sovereignty at any time in the future. Read Putin's 5,000 word essay titled "On the Historical Unity of the Russians and Ukrainians" released in late 2021 where he argues that the Ukrainians, Belarussians and Russians are one Eastern European Slavic people and should be united. And Putin offerring all Ukrainians Russian passports and citizenship only proves this. Do you really think Putin is concerned about a "creeping NATO" when he has 6,500 nucklear weapons more than any other country on the planet? Given his invasion of Chechenya in 1999 and Georgia in 2008 and now Ukraine? Of course not!! He's a warmonger with no regard for international law. Putin's reasons for invading Ukraine, as detailed in his SMO, are pure propaganda and dressed up as such by pro-Putin state-controlled media. His real reason for the invasion is the subjegation of Ukraine and to stop it moving closer towards Western Europe which should be its democratic right.

[@HotakaPeter]

17:13 partity in the artillery battle? Really. I heard on the Duran today that due to shortages of shells Ukraine is down to about 1000 shells a day. Interestingly the speaker calls markets, schools and hosptials as logistical and command centres.

[@HotakaPeter]

At 21:33 he engages in projection...

[@malloc7108]

I did hear a bit of Perun's language in there, mostly using a few talking points as introductions to topics. Excellent Q&A section.

[@mariahaselnuss3826]

13:54 Yeah he is mentioning Perun again. And this time he even calls him an expert! They should make a Video together!

[@ozachar]

Why exactly do you think that Ukraine losses are less than the Russian even while the Ukraine are on the offensive against ready highly prepared Russian defense?

[@YohanRoth]

Because of OSiNT reports

[@RickBlaine]

CNN?

[@arktseytlin]

Men and women of the West, keep calm and support Ukraine. They are doing the hard part.

[@pmcg5200]

They are being mass murdered at the behest of the murderou$ US Empire of Lies. All avoidable. *The state of that Zelenskyy clown. *The state of old Joe. How utterly depraved and perverted. A filthy massacre.

[@bogdanobradovic7621]

You mean support the ethnic cleansing they tried to do? Sure... Not the first time the US supports ethnic cleansing.

[@Yumbhu567]

One sided commentary 😅

[@susymay7831]

Timestamps would help your nice videos!! ❤❤❤❤❤

[@JustInaccurate]

Very interesting presentation, thanks for that. Also, very interesting questions at the end, thanks to the audience for asking them.

[@casfren]

Perun for the Win! you can clearly see a jump in views in the video, amazing

[@zvilender247]

Every military operation needs to adapt itself to the ongoing changes happening on a battlefield. The Ukrainian army is now trying to adapt itself to the loss of circa 10,000 troops on a monthly basis.

[@rasimoo999]

Rack that number of KIA up to 350k

[@hansderaeymaeker9137]

@@rasimoo999 I think it is actually between 400k and 500k.... all of those poor Ukrainian military personnel's lost lives solely due to NATO/the US and their aggression, broken promises, and provoking of Russia. Clear to see why the U.S. never recognized the I.C.C. given they would be constantly be handed down sentences over the past number of decades. Take the U.S. out of the global equation, and there would have been either zero or virtually zero wars since 1970. A sad fact.

[@leme5639]

@@rasimoo999 source?

[@Sargnort]

​@@leme5639look it up yourself.

[@The_real_sock_puppet_account]

400k ukraine slipped up on the official ukraine site and it was quickly deleted post on X for more source @@leme5639

[@markusgreger]

What a sermon. Guy himself says "my prediction about the ukrainian winter offensive was wrong" proceeds with his strategic analysis. "Russia is doomed growing 1.5%" (while germany is contracting 0.5%). Marvellous! Then the Rheinmetall tank factory in ukraine. Omg. You dont get an education to develop a certain speech pattern....

[@farsalami8605]

Yeah it is all the same lol China's economy is collapsing with 4,5-5,5% growth ( us is 0,5-1,9% but economy is great) lol Ukraine does not exist anymore, yet they talk about ....what? The idea that Russia wants to occupy Ukraine is insane lol Anyway i'm stopping watching this crap lol

[@jahmive]

@@farsalami8605 calling out propaganda doesnt make your propaganda less nonsense. "ukraine doesnt exist anymore" who is russia fighting? ghosts. whatever makes you feel good i guess.

[@mar2nya789]

​@@farsalami8605I just read the transcript, this presentation doesn't even qualify as analytical and factual, I knew it wasn't going to be objective and impartial, but what an utter rubbish.

[@gdiwolverinemale4th]

He is a typical warmongering moron who sends innocent people to their deaths, then gets a promotion for it.

[@farsalami8605]

@@mar2nya789 i'm ex- historian and i can tell you from 2000's you'll lose your job if you are objective in your analysis. If you are a good boy ..you'll have a job + 250-750$ per hour jobs for the government or supranational organizations. these so called "scientists" have loans, family etc. etc. I was good, but lazy anyway lol . but i know of near genius hard working analysts who just went on to work in some field and forget about a academic career. Why? ( in my time ) when you said and i quote " i think that the chance that a airplane will crash in my small apartment in central Utrecht, is extremely small" ( this was said by the most famous Dutch historian 1-2 years after 9-11). He was almost crusified and did not appear on any tv channel for a while. lol

[@pRahvi0]

Gotta love these automatic subtitles: Sea of Asov -> CFS off ATACAMs -> eight accounts

[@Valiguss]

Ok hear me out y’all, perun is just Richard iron

[@tthex6484]

Seems like a presentation on wishful thinking

[@gezalesko3813]

Is any country further away from this conflict and less to do with it than australia? NO....

[@cdxbow199]

We sent those carboard drones that destroyed 4 of the barbarians aircraft.

[@jars6230]

Distance doesn't effect the dislike of murderous empire building despots.

[@gezalesko3813]

@@jars6230 yse that is why anglo empires are hated from this far...

[@jars6230]

@@gezalesko3813 So, your response is to support building a Slavic empire by killing and destroying? You cannot hate the old Anglo empire that much if you want to copy it.

[@gezalesko3813]

@@jars6230 empires are evil by nature as man are evil.. that is why we need at least two of them to have lasting stability... slava russii as long as they dont overgrow like anglo empires...

[@HotakaPeter]

Kersh bridge. The major supply line is the railway bridge, not the road bridge that was attacked. If the Ukranians really wanted to target logistics they would have attacked the rail bridge. No the road bridge was attacked to maximise civilian, not military casualties.

[@Kefuddle]

Perun? No wonder this talk is so devoid of reality. He used Perun to get his info. Perun is little more than Western propaganda which selectively cherry picks what data and events to shape its conclusions - always highlight Russian tactical screw ups and the increasingly rare Ukrainian tactical successes. I have no idea how anybody who watches this war can seriously believe that Ukraine has any advantage in any area and is losing less resources. Absolutely bizarre.

[@samsungtap4183]

We want Ukrainian elections, we want Ukrainian elections. No, no no, a thousand times no. We stand for democracy, doesn't mean we practice it ?

[@gdiwolverinemale4th]

We do not have democracy anymore if we ever did. You can vote but the uniparty system does only what the big donors want

[@vbcountryboy]

What? Election is not paramount in middle of ww3. I can see why Russians might want to push that narrative.

[@sugandesenuds6663]

no elections during wartime are normal in democratic countries.

[@gumby2241]

​@@sugandesenuds6663that is of course insane.

[@sugandesenuds6663]

@@gumby2241 it kinda makes sense. They way voting works in modern countries, how can ukraine hold a election when the russians still hold territory? what about the people living there? how can they vote? it's a comlicated question

[@patricklarsen8078]

When I base my analysis on out of context pretext. 😂

[@sun4nicolya]

Sweet dreams and a lot of water. Another brick in the wall.

[@kalervolatoniittu2011]

Devil is in details. Putin flight to st.petersburg during wagner march tells quite a lot

[@MrDomingo55]

This guy lives in alterate universe.

[@michaelmullins3396]

Listen to Larry Johnston and Ray Mc Govern. Poles apart for this delusional Military Industrial Complex Parasite. God help any victim at appears before him on VICTORIA'S COURT.

[@rose-mariemukarutabana9001]

Quite. It's magical thinking.

[@martinaguilar1845]

Absolutely bullshit. Russia has won thewar and defeated Nato.

[@vanveakrin276]

This Australian guy lives in Dr.Who ' s Alternative world for Australia... that's South British Super State ..

[@brianclark5882]

*This* guy (this poster) sounds Russian to me, in the spelling and grammar in his comment. Just sayin'.

[@zvilender247]

It is rather odd that the British, unwilling to give up Northern Ireland (which was never English), now expect Russia to give up on Crimea (which has been Russian since the mid-18th century).

[@davidbarry6900]

... Except of course for the last seven decades or so, when Crimea was part of Ukraine, and even formally recognized as such by Russia.

[@darylbas8216]

They gave up on most of their former colonies. I suppose the Irish are just a little too nazi-ish for the Brits to just leave them alone.

[@zvilender247]

@davidbarry6900 Crimea is "part of Ukraine" the same way the Falklands are "part of the UK". And while Crimea is on Russia's doorstep, the Falklands are certainly not. And if the UK was willing to shed the blood of its soldiers to regain its grip over some God foresaken pieces of rock thousands of miles away from UK shores, there's no reason why Russia should give up on lands which are vital to its security, and that have been and still are, populated by a vast majority of ethnic Russians who would rather be part of Russia than be ruled by ultra national Ukrainian factions. And that's perfectly understandable. And if one compares the symbol of the Ukrainian Azov Brigade to that of the 2nd SS Panzer Division "Das Reich", one would immediately comprehand why Russians refer to Azov troops as "Nazis".

[@zvilender247]

​@@darylbas8216The Irish deserve to get every bit of their island back from the British.

[@darylbas8216]

@@zvilender247 Crimea IS like the Falklands almost in the exact same way, and almost for the exact same reasons, save distance. First of all, the population of the Falklands considers itself British, much like the population of Crimea considers (or at least considered) itself Ukrainian. If you want proof of this, you don’t need to look any further than the 1991 referendum held by the Soviet Union. In that referendum, every Ukrainian oblast, including Crimea, voted overwhelmingly to separate from the Soviet Union. Add to that fact that the likely sequence of events which resulted in Russia “acquiring” it almost certainly came about as a result of a Russian operation which forced Ukrainians in Crimea to vote a certain way, most likely AT GUNPOINT. Although the only proof of that is circumstantial at best, the circumstances are pretty damning. Yes, there was a large number of Russian speaking Ukrainians in Crimea, many of whom preferred if Ukraine moved further towards Russia rather than the west, but those Ukrainians didn’t have a revolution in the streets to demand reunification with Russia. No, Russian troops walked into Crimea and then orchestrated some nonsense vote that you would have to be an idiot to believe was legitimate. As for the Azov battalion… well, shit, where do I begin? Is it with the fact that there are neo-nazis in almost every country in the world, including Russia? Dmitry Utkin sported some pretty visible nazi tattoos until his untimely demise not too long ago. Should Russia be invaded on the premise of denazification based on that? Because, otherwise, the idea of denazifying Ukraine is utter horseshit. Hell, the exit of Wagner from Ukraine has done more to accomplish that goal than anything else.

[@rsfaeges5298]

Excellent talk.

[@CollectiveWest1]

Good objective overview much better than the very short term perspective of some vloggers and media. Good to see observation at about 13 minutes that those criticising how Ukraine is conducting its offensive should be ashamed of themselves, given Ukraine has not been given F-16s and does not even have air parity, let alone the superiority or supremacy in the air which NATO armies take for granted. I endorse the positive view of Perun - a must watch commentator.

[@NathansHVAC]

Ukrain is the smartest country in history sacrificing half thier population for another nato base.

[@farsalami8605]

loooooooooooooool

[@cdxbow199]

I think you are drinking too much Vodka.

[@olderchin1558]

He skirted the nuclear question if Russia starts to lose. Russia has only one real way to escalate and tactical nukes are it. Ukr has passed a number of red lines but has yet to threaten Rus seriously.

[@gdiwolverinemale4th]

We should all be scared sh*tless imbeciles of this kind influence our military and foreign policy. Biden's marxist administration will push us into nuclear annihilation since they believe they will somehow survive ... the chosen (cursed) mob that is

[@rob_one4511]

'if Russia starts to lose' ...? Has never been a possibility.

[@ChuckAmadi]

Please keep up, Russian main has been hit by several silos of UAVs on Airfields and Military used Factories. It's only the beginning but AFU are bringing more pain to Russia. Ukrainians are not afraid of Russians as you may indeed as their Civilians are being targeted every day and night. Slava Ukrain

[@alexisjuillard4816]

​@@rob_one4511well in my opinion a campain that aimed to take kiev in days, a few weeks as most -deny it as much as you want it was the stated objective-, has more then 3 times the population and 20 times the land and infinite de facto ressources (petrol) and gets hammered by a pretty unprepared and initially almost amateur -as opposed to professional- forces... is not wining at all. Being pushed back from kiev is not winning. Being pushed out of kherson and thousands of sqkm is not part of russias plan. Every house, inch, piece of ground taken is a direct empirical proof that russia is absolutely NOT winning. Ukraine may have the advantage. I m not gonna say they are winning per se, it would be premature and dishonest, but the possibility of ukraine breaking through and storming though invaded land is as high or higher -probably way higher- then russia suddenly starts being effective in offense and retaking land

[@starcorpvncj]

Ukr has not threatened Russia at all let alone 'seriously'.

[@GabrielRaduArnautu]

Thank you

[@olgamarsh169]

By the way Jake in that clip a school boy is speaking russian while the teacher is softly asking him in Ukrainian "when are we going to start speaking in Ukrainian?" And the boy is answering "now" 😊

[@MonteRosa849]

Hands down the best and most in depth and intelligent analysis of the russo- Ukrainian war I read so far. Thank you very much Mr. Iron. 🇺🇦✌️

[@Steve-O-Resident-Expert]

incredibly flawed analysis

[@carmelmunro9728]

Which the media is happy to repeat, unchecked, unbalanced and so wrong.

[@DimaDima-ti9dx]

Manipulative,- to the last Ukrainian.

[@richardwareing8252]

Brilliant talk.

[@henryterranauta9100]

💥💥At best,💥💥elegant sophistry at💥💥 1:00:59

[@willboudreau1187]

Who here thinks this guy has almost the same mannerisms of Richard Overy?!?!

[@elizabethfitzgibbon3908]

We are so lucky to have lecturers of this calibre to listen to! Thanks to the lnternet. They are so much more interesting than what the radio has to offer.

[@gciriani]

You sure must like Richard Iron, with 4 separate comments in the same day!

[@hansderaeymaeker9137]

What? Lucky to have somebody so utterly out of touch with reality? Time will VERY clearly show how completely inaccurate he is. If you are not an accurate, unbiased, logical and factual commentator, then you have no business offering an opinion on any platform. Those who blindly believe this waffle need to engage in some serious introspection. Simply 'wishing' something to be true does not make it so. My own guess is that not only will Russia dictate any peace agreement, and emerge by far the strongest economy in Europe, but the politicians responsible for all the Ukrainian loss of life (the U.S., the U.K, and other war criminals) will serve a lot of time.

[@sisyphusvasilias3943]

all he does is repeat nato media propaganda, he doesnt have a single original thought

[@chevergara3139]

You should listen to col. Douglas McGregor analysis

[@starcorpvncj]

I agree. He hasn't got a clue.@@sisyphusvasilias3943

[@va6597]

Today’s Putin is the only hope to keep the escalation under control and at slow pace. With him gone (especially suddenly) the over-escalation will become the best tool to keep situation inside under control. So the best we could do now is to start to pray long life Putin.

[@YohanRoth]

Praying for fascist is not something that you should do tho. Open one history book please

[@jonathancompton3399]

Brillianrt

[@henryopatrick3648]

Perhaps you also e-mail youre politicians to support Ukraine

[@stevehurrell651]

When someone reads every word of a lecture you have to wonder why he just doesn't print it. "We think more Russians are being killed than Ukrainians!" Ukraine is on its 3rd army- 14m people have left the country- Russia has more hardware, more soldiers, better intel, undetectable missiles, and a massive army in reserve. Zzz is a puppet- he had no previous military, diplomatic, or governing experience. He was voted in on a promise to bring peace in the Dombas! A great act

[@peterdoyle1591]

What a load of crap! 😵‍💫It's amazing how these guys will sell their souls to keep their jobs.

[@henryterranauta9100]

☠️☠️This is an Iron Curtain hawk ☠️☠️ 49:25 Great analysis, well balanced Yeahs and Nyes🇷🇺🇷🇺On one hand… the battlefields🇺🇦🇺🇦On the hand… coercion🇺🇦🇺🇦🇷🇺🇷🇺 The bottom line of this speech is skepticism e.g., the defeat and ceding Donbass to Russia. 👏🏼👏🏼👏🏼👏🏼 Kudos for such elegant lecture which ends with unbelief in the unconditional defeat of Ukraina. Some spin doctoress plausibly had a say in writing the final version of this propaganda for the prowar, conservative think tanks in D.C. 🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦 Sieg Heil Russia 🇷🇺🇷🇺🇷🇺🇷🇺 Delenda Ucrania 🎪🎪🎪🎪🎪🎪🎪🎪🎪🎪🎪🎪 54:57

[@doolittlegeorge]

When does one cross the line from *"special military operation"* to *"War"* is one salient feature of this conflict (apparently this be a "no biggie conflict" as relates to Putin Russia versus Ukraine. Is this true as well?) Also strategically speaking the actual military goal as to be realized by the Russian War of Aggression/inherently criminal/intrinsically criminal as well is the goal an "investment" or 21st Century *"siege"* similar to Leningrad for Nazi Germany World War 2 1941-1944 #question_mark for this marks two important aspects for the guerre de course #1 a military aim and #2 believed to be achievable/realistic as of course Ukraine is the size of France and "ruling" something that massive and extent will not go unchallenged is any assumption from the strictly military.

[@ObjectiveMedia]

War is when you go all out on a country. Like what NATO/the west did to Iraq, Afghanistan, Syria, Yugoslavia etc. The SMO was designed to provide security for the civilian population in the Donbas (who were systematically terrorised by Ukrainian neonazi terrorist groups) and minimise civilian casualties which is why they only sent 40,000 troops in initially.

[@FiikusMaximus]

​@@ObjectiveMediaabsolute nonsense. The term SMO is political/marketing ploy. Shadows and mirrors. Russia has been exerting it's firepower to the fullest short only of nuclear weapons, which are off the table anyway. I hope you don't expect anyone to believe this war was aimed to increase security anywhere in Ukraine. The most Russian-leaning regions (pre war at elast) have had to bear the brunt of the cost in regards to destruction of civilian infrastructure, not to mention the horrendous death toll Russia has brought upon them. This war is a nked land grab.

[@simonsaiz]

​@ObjectiveMedia surely a troll account needs a more deceptive name than ObjectiveMedia.

[@michaelkalinski5061]

A pure Russian propoganda!

[@Gulroeg]

No one could have predicted it? Peter Zeihan did. 5 years ago(?)

[@wavydavy9816]

He talks so much shit he's proably predicted everything that will occur over the next 30 years (or not) 🤷‍♂

[@gordonpritchard9499]

Don't know where you are getting your information from sport ,but I suspect it's all from your own propaganda sheet warmest warmest regards

[@Tukemuth]

When you say "Russo-Ukraine War", I already know whose side you're on and what facts you'll ignore.

[@allthecoolnamesaretaken10]

They still fixated imagening they'll recover the lost territory and Crimea 😂

[@EvelynMaguire]

Russia may even use a nuclear weapon, but the West will not attack Russia, it will sacrifice Ukraine and use this to further isolate Russia economically, causing the global South to move away from Russia. This will be a weapon against Russia and Boris Johnson practically said it yesterday in Brazil. Without the Global South, the Russian economy collapses and the war is a proxy war. Russia is between two swords. Putin has been practically abandoned by the Russian people and cannot even declare martial law, although he needs men right now.

[@raymondparnell439]

Mate it's irrelevant what Russia thinks. The free world has decided that it will be so. There isn't anything Russia can do to stop it. Putin idms hoping if he sacrifices a few million Russians the world will let him keep it. . No this is not ww2.

[@ducaleadan39]

It Is, So Anither Surprise To Talk About Who Will Be The Country President. This Indicates That We,Have No A,Choose But You Have Selection who Will Be . That Means We Are Not Independent Country. . It Will Be Seen , Even This Case . . . Any Way You Can Do So we Will Close As Much As We Can. Using Country Eyes .

[@mono_real]

Who is this guy ? James Bond? 😁😀😃😄😄 madness, insanity, misinformation at the highest order

[@jezalb2710]

Slava Ukraïni

[@mono_real]

@@jezalb2710 yes of course....hahahahhaa🤣😂😂😂😂

[@giorgiocooper9023]

Lets do this “strategic analysis” in 10 seconds …. Ukraine /NATO lost big time, Russia won ! Period - Any questions ?

[@Sargnort]

I don't understand how anyone could think that Ukraine is winning. Half the population is has either left or injured or dead. So 20 something million vs 180 million. Russia can pretty much do as they please if they wanted to. But USA won't negotiate peace. It's the west that is sacrificing Ukraine to weaken Russia.

[@CK-cz6ml]

😂😂😂

[@arktseytlin]

play nice in your sanbox kiddo

[@stefansekulic7903]

Russia is winning in the amount of losses and the fact that they can't take small towns like Vuhledar in 18 months. Imagine someone besieging Geelong unsuccessfully for 18 months and calling that a success.

[@vanveakrin276]

Poland wants to get back Western Poland as a New South Poland ( original Volhynia ) ..... Poland ruled Volhynia 500 years ago ..

[@robertandrzejczyk]

No we don’t. There is no public debate around that. To be honest, the first time I heard about was from Russian sources. It is a fake.

[@davidmoonsmokincubans]

Shoot, move and communicate. It was what we trained in the late `80s. Holds true today. Who wins that war wins the war.