A wintry start to 2025 but will it snow?

TheWeatherOutlook's Brian Gaze takes a look at the 14 day UK weather prospects from 31st December.
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The forecast focuses on trends and probabilities during the second week rather than specifics.
Differences in the output from computer model is highlighted and the most probable outcomes are considered.
Uses high resolution graphics from a range of computer models to give an in-depth view.
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[@milligoree]

Just found the channel by searching '2 week forecast uk', it has never come up before, so glad it has now! Have been looking for something just like it. Thank you!

[@TheWeatherOutlookTWO]

Welcome aboard!

[@A-Nobody]

A big Thank You to Brian for all his effort in making these videos during the past year.

[@TheWeatherOutlookTWO]

Glad you like them!

[@alunjones3860]

Typical, cold and snow, just as I go back to work. Thank you for the update Brian and Happy New Year.

[@TheWeatherOutlookTWO]

Happy new year!

[@KeefsCattys]

Thanks for all your brilliant forecasts over 2024 Brian. Looking forward to you keeping us all up to date in 2025. Very best wishes

[@TheWeatherOutlookTWO]

Happy new year!

[@GeoffHills-l1c]

Great service Brian. Thank you

[@TheWeatherOutlookTWO]

Thanks for your feedback. Happy New Year.

[@paulgirling9927]

Hi Brian, thank you for this latest run of weather patterns. The last several days I having been watching with great interest concerning this cold weather, as it seems we are on a bit of a knife edge on whether we get a proper northern blocking or just a glancing blow or a few days of cold. It would be great to see some blocking and a week or so of cold as it’s been quite a while since we have had a winter to talk about. I’m keeping my fingers crossed for strong northern blocking 😊

[@TheWeatherOutlookTWO]

Still looks like it could go either way. On balance, the low pressure area now looks set to track farther north and that means so will the rain - snow boundary.

[@HazelKitching]

Thankyou Brian.Hope you have a happy NEW YEAR

[@TheWeatherOutlookTWO]

Happy New Year!

[@alannewbury7833]

Happy new year Brian I always lk fwd to ur accurate 14 day forecasts always excellant

[@TheWeatherOutlookTWO]

Thanks for the feedback - I try to keep the forecasts objective and grounded in reality! Happy New Year.

[@margaretmaddern5443]

Happy New year Brian thank you xx

[@TheWeatherOutlookTWO]

Happy New Year!

[@softshallow7435]

Happy New Year Brian!

[@softshallow7435]

First comment!

[@TheWeatherOutlookTWO]

Happy New Year.

[@HazelKitching]

You have a brilliant name Brian.My late dad was called Brian.

[@chrisa9043]

Happy new year brian.

[@TheWeatherOutlookTWO]

Happy New Year.

[@welfestatthefouralls6859]

Happy New year 🕛

[@TheWeatherOutlookTWO]

Happy New Year.

[@jamesjukebox2386]

A mixed bag overall, nothing major really, shall enjoy the winter sunshine, happy new year Brian, cheers.

[@TheWeatherOutlookTWO]

Happy new year!

[@desmondwilliams3689]

Let it snow let it snow in south Wales uk

[@TheWeatherOutlookTWO]

Not sure that will be one of the favoured locations. That said, you've got a ticket in the draw because the models are still firming up on developments this weekend in particular.

[@davidchamberlain5425]

Heavy snow here in lumsden Aberdeenshire

[@hardworker645]

💩😂 And windy in hatfield hertfordshire 😂😂😂

[@HazelKitching]

How long has it been snowing where you are?Here in Hull its currently chilly,dry and windy.

[@TheWeatherOutlookTWO]

Wet and windy down here!

[@briancox8518]

At least we will see some sunshine

[@hardworker645]

I hope for 3-4 feet of snow in hertfordshire

[@TheWeatherOutlookTWO]

Not sure my roof would survive that amount of snow!

[@stuartallen8791]

Warm to very hot in most of Australia 34c y,day in Sydney, today 24c with a pleasant brief relief from the heat ..back up to 28c by 9 jan

[@carlh429]

What is it about M4 corridor? Does it possess some mystical force that prevents snow falling to the south of it?

[@andrewmartin8821]

Quite. If you look at Membury services on the M4 it is 700 ft above sea level so more likely to dnow

[@Smartgran]

Please help me to see the UK in your graphics. I seem to take too long to find it and by then the graphic has changed. I like your broadcasts but surely I'm not the only elderly person watching who is constantly searching for the country and more specifically Scotland's west coast? Help!

[@TheWeatherOutlookTWO]

Point taken. I'll see what can be done to make the graphics clearer in 2025.

[@PaulMiller-h1m]

Wow. What a forecast. So uncertain

[@TheWeatherOutlookTWO]

Apparently I used the word "uncertain" six times.

[@HazelKitching]

For all those of you going out to welcome in 2025 please keep yourselves safe and don't overdo the drink.I arent a party pooper but just don't want anyone to end up in hospital for New Year's day.

[@softshallow7435]

This looks promising. But is abit of Deja vu from a couple of weeks ago from that low that was supposed to hit southern England all in all it went south to Belgium and France where they had a deluge of snow, remember Brian?

[@TheWeatherOutlookTWO]

If anything the trend since recording the video is for the low to go farther north.

[@softshallow7435]

@@TheWeatherOutlookTWO Oh ok fingers crossed. I can already feel the cold air digging in its now 14:05 on 1/1/25!

[@HazelKitching]

Could the city of Hull get snow Brian? Thanking You Hazel

[@TheWeatherOutlookTWO]

Quite possibly, although being on the coast may be an issue even if the rain - snow push far enough northwards to reach you.

[@chrisa9043]

Olny time will tell.

[@michaeloreilly657]

And then again, the ECMWF might be right and next week's graphs look very different.

[@TheWeatherOutlookTWO]

There's still a good deal of uncertainty, but the trend since filming has been for the snow - rain boundary to move farther north. Nonetheless, it's still several days off and things could change further.

[@michaeloreilly657]

@TheWeatherOutlookTWO Both models appear to be converging on a milder mid month.

[@hardworker645]

Beast from the east please come back in hertfordshire 😂😂😂

[@TheWeatherOutlookTWO]

More likely in February in any given year, but vanishingly rare in recent years.

[@craigbennett1293]

Rain

[@chas3997]

Cant see any wintry weather in the coastal southern counties being significant because of higher than normal sea temperatures. 1980s level of wintry weather is very unlikely. The weather is more likely to be benign & grey with some frost🤣

[@TheWeatherOutlookTWO]

Southern coastal counties are one of the least favoured places for snow in the UK. I agree with your view that snow has become less likely in recent years.

[@chas3997]

@@TheWeatherOutlookTWO Ill add some clarity to that Brian: The 1980s was significant for heavy drifting snow in the north of sussex and the weald. i witnessed this ( snow difts 9 feet high!) this kind of snow event is history for good; but we may still get short lived snow events😀. The sea being such a massive heat sink & rising temperature averages mean 1980s snow depths in southern england will probably not be repeated again 😀. Happy new year!

[@briancox8518]

Rain in the south as usual

[@TheWeatherOutlookTWO]

I would expect at least some transitional snow.

[@xtremelemon8612]

Sorry to say it, but it will end up being yet again a lesson from the gfs to the other models

[@TheWeatherOutlookTWO]

Most models are now taking the low pressure farther north, probably closer to what ICON - ECMWF were showing when I recorded the video.

[@jimcartner819]

I think you guys need to get a new line of work? You were forecasting snow and blizzards from Monday with bitter cold temps? BUT WE HAVE HIGH WINDS AND MILD TEMPERATURES. I wonder how much of our tax money has gone into this it's a joke and all these yellow and amber warnings are just taking the micky out of people changing their arrangements because of this nonsense? The MET office is worse? 😂

[@michaeloreilly657]

Perhaps you missed last week's video?

[@TheWeatherOutlookTWO]

I'll leave this comment for now to give you the chance to provide evidence of where I or TWO made that forecast. If you can't or won't then I'll remove it because I like to keep things as factual as possible.