Advanced NFL DFS Strategy for Week 9 | JMToWin’s Slate Breakdown + Bottom-Up Build

[@michaelehaddad2659]

Take this for what it's worth, but I've been handicapping for 30 years and have had multiple books limited (or eliminated) by the ability to bet props/SGP's with them. I'm posting this under some popular videos with the notion that some will find it helpful to hear contrarian ideas. Here are some plays that nobody is talking about where I think the odds are VERY favorable: PLAYS (explained below)- NIX over attempts/25+ yds, T. Franklin ladder to 70 (+1200), CAR TT OVER 16- to 22- (+210) + CAR/NO's over 43 to 51- (+240) + Chuba 60-80+ & TD, DMONT ladder to 80 (+210) + TD + 2 TD's (+500), TEN @ 1/2 & -3 + alt lines to 12-( +330). Leans- DJ Moore + Tre Mcbride overs + K. Allen under (SGP + alone), A. Trautman + Lil Jordan, + E. Moore ladder (FYI- Winston heavily favors WR's over TE's/RB's) SGP's: Nix over 25 rush, T. Franklin over 35-, Balt -3 (+750), D. Montgomery over 70 rush + TD + GB +8- + alt under 55-(+800) DEN O- Last week I got laughed at for saying I thought you should ladder Sutton and avoid Den's run game (Nix Inc.). This week, go under Sutton's recs, over on Nix rush attempts/yds, and ladder Troy Franklin. He's the man-beater on this team (don't worry about snaps; they will snap back) and Mims (great alt lines play) will be the deep threat because Sutton does not get separation vs man D's, lacks speed, and Nix tends not to throw into tight windows. The last man D they faced (NO's), all of those plays would have easily hit. Last week Sutton hit vs a VERY soft zone D. CAR O/Bryce - Bryce got better and nobody noticed because his receivers dropped 2 splash plays and he played an elite pass D on the road with no help from the run game. This week he gets a bad NO's D at home missing his top 3 CBs. I think CAR covers, and has a chance to win, but the safe play is them scoring points and giving them up on D. DMONT over rushing + TD-- The game plan will involve a lot of DMONT in the rain and less Gibbs. Vegas has this wrong (famous last words). DMONT is the mudder, Gibbs isn't. Facts. Last year, everyone played Bijan in the rain over Tyson A. Don't make the same mistake again. I've started looking for reasons to bet on winless home teams by their fourth home game (TEN, CIN, NYG, CAR this week). I lean towards all of them covering this week, but the total team points for the Giants and Panthers are better bets than the spread. Washington is in a big letdown spot, which should weaken their defense. My fav spread bet is TEN. They should dominate early on, and possibly throughout, vs a NE team that is in a big letdown spot. They should dominate the line of scrimmage on both sides, win the turnover battle, and make Maye look like a rookie for the first time this year. This year, every time you thought NE was a decent team, they got pummeled the next week, and TEN is a lot better than public perception. GLand thanks for the video.

[@OneWeekSeason]

thanks for your thoughts!

[@cbjungle68]

Just found this OWS site...very informative! Will definitely be coming back.

[@OneWeekSeason]

glad to have you!

[@LuisLopez.05]

Such a fantastic show to listen to at normal speed . Your analysis is like no one else . Thank you .

[@JUNKINYOURTRUNKK]

.25x speed so I can savor every minute

[@OneWeekSeason]

you do you!

[@Kpizzo]

You sound drunk af at that speed 😂

[@smokeyca1466]

1.25x😂

[@djonesemb]

I find 1.75x speed to be perfect

[@OneWeekSeason]

whatever works for you!

[@BuffaloWarpigs]

Class Begins..... Lets Fuckin Go!!!!!!

[@OneWeekSeason]

🏛🍎

[@fidolinguidi1055]

This guy ❤

[@OneWeekSeason]

appreciate you!

[@sakichler]

I know previously it seemed when playing Ceedee you wanted Dak as the super high ceiling games they sort of hit together. Would it be the same this weekend or are one off Ceedee Lamb more viable on a slate like this?

[@Stormcat6363]

When you talk about ownership projections... where do you get these?

[@OneWeekSeason]

we have ownership projections available at oneweekseason.com

[@Moustachebier]

By afternoon Buffalo temp will be in the 50s

[@jaboy8603]

in terms of props, cant the sportsbook just limit your account?

[@redrex0032]

Where is props insider?

[@zee.___moose941]

How is Tracy not mega chalk at 5500$

[@reidthompson6272]

Yeah. 1.5? I’d have to listen to it 5 times. Lol

[@MattD86]

1.75x here. You just need to pay attention and not multitask

[@disbandedbrotherhood]

.

[@md2949]

lol @ anyone who takes this dude seriously 😂

[@MattD86]

100% guaranteed he’s won hundreds of thousands of dollars more than you in DFS

[@Kpizzo]

I took him seriously last week and won $20k. You should try

[@sakichler]

❤️❤️❤️. JM is one of the sharpest minds around!

[@jeremycook3067]

JM is one of the goats.

[@jgfunk]

Hey man don't trash people who don't make their lineups on the toilet