Afghan Assumption Project: How America Snatched Defeat from the Jaws Of Victory in Afghanistan

Michael Cohen, Christopher Preble, PhD, and Monica Duffy Toft, PhD. will focus on two pivotal aspects of the Afghan conflict and U.S. foreign policy.
First, they will look back at the US decision to go to war in Afghanistan, with a particular focus on how U.S. officials, especially President George W. Bush, framed the 9/11 attacks and the US response in black-and-white terms. This decision limited US strategic options, led to an aggressive counterterrorism policy that targeted the Taliban and made political reconciliation and stability in Afghanistan impossible. They’ll discuss the impact of this framing on policymaking and its implications for subsequent administrations.
Second, they will delve into the consequences of conflating the Taliban with Al-Qaeda - and treating these two very different groups as if they were one and the same with identical strategic objectives. They will analyze the initial success of the U.S. invasion and the overlooked opportunities for reconciliation, including an aborted Taliban surrender in 2001 that could have put Afghanistan - and the United States - on a very different and more peaceful path. The discussion will highlight the impact of these strategic errors on regional stability and the prolonged conflict in Afghanistan. This event promises a deep dive into often unexplored aspects of the Afghan war - and their relevance to current conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East.