Amazon stock analysis for 2025

[@LizaPhilips]

NVIDIA's strong growth and the rise of Bitcoin are definitely on my radar. With big players like Microsoft and Amazon driving demand for NVIDIA chips, it seems like a solid long-term bet. That said, I’m cautious about potential pullbacks post-earnings, especially with the market’s volatility. Still, I’m leaning towards holding, given the AI boom and the broader tech sector's growth. Just hope the market doesn’t throw a curveball after earnings!

[@monicawill5]

I agree. Even with great opportunities, we should proceed cautiously. Seeking market analysis or advice from certified market strategists is important.

[@Johnlarry12]

Absolutely, having a solid plan is crucial. My portfolio has doubled since early last year. My financial advisor and I are working towards a seven-figure goal, though it might take until Q2 2025.

[@frankbarnes22]

I could really use the expertise of an advisor like that.

[@Johnlarry12]

Finding financial advisors like Carol Vivian Constable who can assist you shape your portfolio would be a very creative option. There will be difficult times ahead, and prudent personal money management will be essential to navigating them

[@frankbarnes22]

Thank you for the lead. I searched her up, and I have sent her an email. I hope she gets back to me soon.

[@Jonathan-hardwick95]

What's the most effective strategy during this period of volatility with the rate cut? Most of my portfolio is in (20% Index funds, 20% CD's 30% Bonds/T-bills and other assets) I want to explore different strategies to benefit from a potential bubble.

[@greggorys]

Adding META and NVDA are smart additions in my opinion. it's all about balancing your risk tolerance with your long-term goals. Partnering with a financial advisor can help streamline your strategy.

[@pentagon1985]

Absolutely! Wealth is made in bear markets. We aren’t in a bear market, but nibbling heavy red days has proven to be fruitful for me over 9 years of investing. I am at $2.25 mil. Biggest positions PLTR, TSLA, SCHD, NVDA, and now looking to build up DRGO alongside finding quality value/growth stocks to buy like TORM. I got $48k divs last year in taxable divs. Q2 taxable divs this year was $17,388. Don't sell when the market is down. Having a skilled Financial counsellor that puts the time in to do in-depth research can be valuable in strategizing your portfolio.

[@brendancarrington-k7h]

Oh I've heard similar things about hiring an advisor. It's hard to choose one that's very good though. Could you make some useful recommendations? Enthused about investing for my eventual retirement.

[@brendancarrington-k7h]

Thanks for sharing, I searched her full name and found her web instantly. After reviewing her credentials and conducting due diligence, I reached out to her.

[@pentagon1985]

Anytime👌

[@tanyabischoff]

I feel investors should focus on under-the-radar stocks, considering the current rollercoaster nature of the stock market, Because 35% of my $270k portfolio comprises plummeting stocks that were once revered. I don't know where to go here out of devastation.

[@garnold-l5p]

Find quality stocks that have long term potential, and ride with those stocks. I have found it takes someone who is very familiar with the market to make such good picks.

[@StephenRobello]

I totally agree with you. I started out investing on my own too and lost quite a bit. After the 2020 crash, I managed to pull out about $160k. I then invested that money with an analyst, and in just seven months, I made almost $580,000. It's amazing how having the right guidance can turn things around!

[@ryannemdjen]

How can one find a verifiable financial planner? I would not mind looking up the professional that helped you. I will be retiring in two years and I might need some management on my much larger portfolio. Don't want to take any chances.

[@StephenRobello]

My CFA, Laurel Ann Watkins, is a renowned figure in her field. I recommend researching her name online; you’ll find all her credentials and everything you need to work with a reliable professional. With many years of experience, she is a valuable resource for anyone looking to navigate the financial market.

[@ryannemdjen]

Thanks for sharing. I curiously searched for her full name and her website popped up immediately. I looked through her credentials and did my due diligence before contacting her.

[@NadeemL930]

Everybody wants to buy AMZN when it’s cheap which is why it rarely ever gets to be cheap. I’ve been an investor in AMZN since 2010 and what I've noticed is that the stock moves in waves. When they’re investing the stock doesn’t perform well, however when they start harvesting the returns from those investments the stock tends to have explosive moves to the upside.

[@killersajmon]

FCF Yield 2025e is about 3%. Cash flows are estimated to grow at about 20% for 5-6 years thanks to cloud computing growth and subsequent margin expansion. Adding to that, Capex is about half of EBITDA. Capex will not always be that high.. One cannot value growing companies solely on P/E-ratios. My 2 cents.

[@s4b1n123]

I was about to post the same. If they slow down their capex (which are high because they want to capitalize on AI and cloud), they could easily +50% their FCF. I would say it's neither cheap nor pricy at this level, it can both jump 20% or dive 20% in the next year just depending on sentiment and general market trend

[@louisking11]

It's richly priced now but it's still cheap with respect to Tesla 😂😅

[@joezw99]

I swear all Sven does is use a stock sorter and sorts by lowest PE. The amount of trash no-name companies he's tried to sell here is absurd. Just because a company has 5PE last 4 quarters doesn't mean it will moon.

[@durrer9038]

He took growth into consideration though. I'd position it at low value as well atm.

[@killersajmon]

@@durrer9038 Net income growth of 8% is really really conservative.

[@flyinkiwi01]

Sven recommended buying China stocks in 2018. He sold a list of recommended stocks. Most of the stocks went to zero and delisted, the remaining ones I have tracked are down 42% in just over six years. For an investor who has grown his portfolio by “3000%” to get it SO WRONG seems to imply some serious editing of performance. Maybe he is that successful… but maybe he isn’t. How would you know? But he definitely isn’t accountable. If you take his advice and lose thousands… that is on you.

[@Value-Investing]

thanks for the comment, would you please send me an email so I can know what is the key issue that you have with me. I discussed thousands of stocks here so there were plenty of mistakes too - here is a list of 15 to make things easier for you kzbin.info/www/bejne/i3zEgICpZtB4pZI

[@hs-qx5hv]

Lol I'm guessing you listened to this guy and got burned?

[@garnold-l5p]

I used to think it was just about buying stocks, but I didn’t realize there are strategies for managing risk and actually making a profit. Now I feel kinda stuck since I’m not seeing any gains in my portfolio. Do you have any recommendations on what I should consider? I’d really appreciate it!

[@williamJohnsonq8f]

Investing without guidance can lead to mistakes and losses. I've learned this from experience. If you're new or short on time, it's wise to seek expert advice, which helped me navigate the market's ups and downs.

[@tanyabischoff]

I agree. I've been collaborating with a financial advisor since 2022, and I generate up to 26K each month without any effort on my part. I also think my earnings are largely due to the substantial capital I initially invested.

[@melodysmithSTL]

Could you kindly elaborate on the advisor's background and qualifications?

[@tanyabischoff]

Judith B. Richards a highly respected figure in her field. I suggest delving deeper into her credentials, as she possesses extensive experience and serves as a valuable resource for individuals seeking guidance in navigating the financial market.

[@melodysmithSTL]

Thank you so much for the suggestion! I really needed it. I looked her up on Google and explored her website; she has an impressive background in investments. I've sent her an email, and I hope to hear back from her soon!

[@SuperKimNina]

Contrary to this DOW also just hit a record high. I'm optimistic about the prospect of the market. Also keeping an eye on digital currencies. I'm seeking ways I could divest some of my portfolio, maybe around 150k, to include digital currencies. Can you make a video on that?

[@SharafNajibSrour]

A long-term approach can definitely help with navigating market volatility. set clear goals, focus on quality Investments, stay patient and avoid emotional reactions.

[@AliciaMcIlwraith]

Such uncertainties are the reasons I don’t base my judgement on a ''heresay''. My dollar portfolio is made up of 30% S&P500, 25% Index funds(ETFs),15% Gold and over 30% in digital assets, thanks to my CFA for this accurate asset allocation. This strategy is what works for my spouse and I. We've made over 80% capital growth minus dividends

[@SuperKimNina]

I find your situation fascinating. Would you be willing to suggest a trusted advisr you've worked with?

[@AliciaMcIlwraith]

I've been locked in with ‘’Ryan Thomas Kelly” and his performance has been consistently impressive. He’s quite known in his field, look him up.

[@SuperKimNina]

Thanks for the info. I searched his full name and found his website right away.

[@elgotta136]

I bought in April 2023 also after I saw your video. Thank you Sven!

[@tubeindahouse]

This is a high quality company. I own it. I would love for the stock to halve , buy more, and lower my averaging purchase price. Just waiting for this opportunity.

[@NiftyNari]

Great insights! Excited to see how Amazon performs in 2025!

[@TheScaryGermanGuy]

I remember back when Sven had said Amazon was a buy at 90 USD/share. Back then there was a reason it was low and a lot of people were bashing the company on how they don't buy anything at Amazon anymore. So while it now seems to have been a no-brainder to buy Amazon at 90 back then it wasn't and there was fear all over the market.

[@FedericoG-p3w]

It was fear for people not listening to cc/ presentationa of the ceo explaining exactly why the fcf was plummeting, it was an amazing oppoetunity to accumulate)

[@jsedge2473]

Amazon has so many services they could probably completely fail in retail and still be fine (which is obviously not happening any time soon because Amazon dominates in retail as well)

[@Wood-Je]

I currently hold AMZN, TSLA, and PLTR and am considering adding $100,000 worth of AMD to my portfolio. I’d like to see your analysis of AMD.

[@Luksphine]

Adding AMD could diversify your portfolio by providing exposure to a different segment of the tech industry. The company is also entering the AI market, positioning itself to compete with NVIDIA in AI accelerators and it's price are currently down at $117.32. Consulting an expert is advisable for a more informed decision

[@ZednanElle]

Partnering with a fiduciary has truly been transformative for me. They provided invaluable insights and tailored strategies that matched my risk tolerance and financial objectives. I remember being hesitant about investing in Netflix back in May 2022, but she assured me it was a strong choice. Today, that decision has yielded over 7x ROI.

[@Masumakh1]

@@ZednanElle our FA must be really good, I hope it's okay to inquire if you're still collaborating with the same FA and how I can get in touch with them?

[@ZednanElle]

I've shuffled through a few advisors in the past, but settled with Victoria Louisa Saylor her service is exemplary and she's a genius. I'd suggest you research her further, sure you'll find her basic info.

[@Masumakh1]

Wow, her track record looks really good from what I found online.i just messaged her, let's see how it goes. Thanks for the info

[@JULESDemarco-i8s]

Hold tight, this rocket is taking off! 🚀🚀

[@mikelcastilla5621]

Where would you put META?

[@lightgreme]

Hi Sven, I really appreciate your contents, I try to do my best to learn in university, from book and from investors like u for my investment journey

[@Value-Investing]

Great to hear!

[@nicholasbailey6236]

One thing about the stock-based awards is that a decent amount of them never vest. People leave or get PIPed and then are replaced by new hires who are paid in cash for 2 years.

[@thesurreyrider3396]

Hi Sven, please could you do an analysis of ASOS please? Is it now cheap enough to give it consideration again? Thanks for your insights, happy new year 🎉

[@lawrencehalpin6611]

Thank you.

[@Value-Investing]

thank you!

[@sandeepketham]

Can you Please add Alibaba in your quadrant?

[@theWebWizrd]

Thank you so much as always Sven! Do you ever take co-dependencies/covariance into perspective when you select stocks for your portfolio? You obviously have to look at each business first, but surely there are some ways you can combine risks in a good way. For instance, some companies greatly benefit from cheap oil prices, so owning them together with oil stocks seem interesting for lowering risk. Personally, I have a pretty large position in two banks, which should do well if interest rates stay higher, which partially are intended to offset investments into most interest-sensitive stocks. Just mumbo-jumbo modern portfolio theory stuff, or good value investing?

[@Value-Investing]

mumbo jumbo :-(

[@WeGoTSkiLL]

I sold my Amazon position literally half an hour ago after years of holding it. What a coincidence with this video 😆

[@fizzyfish-k4q]

Good for you man. Writing is on the wall. US market is cooked

[@ibrahimciftci9599]

You don’t understand the company

[@WeGoTSkiLL]

@@ibrahimciftci9599 I said literally nothing about the company 💀

[@nzzenith]

Yeah, it's going to soon start to drop for 3yrs. 💯

[@ibrahimciftci9599]

@ short it then

[@roger4880]

Thanks Sven. I didn't buy last time you said but next time for sure 😊

[@Value-Investing]

:-)

[@timaebi7540]

Can you do a video about wizz air? I see the risk return as absolutely worth wile and the current problems only as a temporary.

[@raananh-w2j]

For companies such as Amazon, Tesla, nVidia, etc, which have constant new development of new products and services, looking at the numbers is almost meaningless. It's more about a belief in their future success. Hence, their PE ratio is in very high. As for Amazon, I believe they have major new products that will dominate the market.

[@smartcompassvalueinvesting]

Makes sense to me. Price currently too high to get in

[@mathewwilson9776]

Focusing on the 3 most profitable business segments and assuming that everything else breaks even to keep it smple. AWS: 110b revenue, 30% operating margin. Grow it 15% per year for 5 years to 66b op income. 20x gives you $75. Ads: 56b revenue, 32% operating margin (use Google's as proxy). Grow it 15% per year for 5 years to 36b op income. 20x gives you $41. 3rd party seller: 150 revenue, 15% operating margin (analyst estimates). Grow it 10% per year for 5 years to 36b op income. 20x gives you $41. So $157 total with a 20x forward multiple 5 years out. Current market cap suggests 30x forward multiple 5 years out. You would need to pay roughly $130 to have a shot at a 10% return... It is all priced already.

[@TTTT-sj3vz]

Bro don't argue with him his mantra is I will buy companies that trade at a p/e of 10

[@stanislavgritciuk337]

Sven, where you would put Alibaba on your quadrant ?

[@JuanBattaglia45]

While I understand the 'value investing' optic, in the sense of 'being conservative' (something that I love), I believe that the different segments of the company deserve different 'terminal net margins'. For example, there's an abysmal difference between the nature of AMZN's 'first party' business and its 'AWS' business. I'm not a big fan of normalizing P/E ratios, but I think the current literal P/E ratio is not suitable for the nature of the businesses

[@Value-Investing]

as a value investor you want that for free!!!!

[@JuanBattaglia45]

@@Value-Investing I think I am 20% less 'grahamian' than you Haha

[@Mitchellee-g2s]

If you can't understand why someone would pay $100 to get $4 back every year then dividend investing is not for you.i bought MRK, KMB AND PEP for passive income. I just need to divest my portfolio around $80k into cryptos and I am set for the year. Any suggestions?

[@marm1234-r8c]

can you make a video about reits like VICI? thanks

[@Value-Investing]

:-)

[@apanakos]

Can you please make a video about the taxation of the dividends? In Germany you can use etf portfolio as a retirement option and then no taxes are pied for dividend etf or for re-balancing. Also I have read that for people outside of USA in case we have US stocks we might need to pay up to 40% tax in some cases on top of the tax in the country of residence. I am worried that even if I follow the mindset of the value investor in the end there will be no benefit because a huge portion of the profits will be taken back... I think it is equally important to be educated on this part. I believe you have experience on this so even if you don't want to make a video can you please share some material ? Thank you in advance !

[@ThePetar911]

some stocks like popular ones are in a bubble, but you can not say vw, or tysenn krupp, or like alibaba are in the same category,.

[@AlanMwatson-xyz]

China Education Group dropped another 10% ytd and now trades at 3.5x earnings. I don't think I have ever seen such a disconnect between price and value.

[@AlanMwatson-xyz]

I included more details in an older comment, but the group essentially offers vocational education programs (so a good chunck of the earnings is recurrent), near 20% growth, over 30% net margin and an 11% dividend yield with a 40% payout ratio.

[@Value-Investing]

I will check it!

[@jonnes__4657]

🗽 My favorite value investment... AMZN 👍 Currently a bit too expensive. .

[@Value-Investing]

-))

[@joaopt8084]

Hi Sven. Cocoa price skyrocket. Where would you put HSY on the quadrant?

[@usmanaslam5450]

Could you take a look at BABA or PDD please

[@Value-Investing]

thanks for suggesting

[@frederikcensen6350]

Hi Sven I can't find Ulta beauty in the quadrant anymore, where did it go?

[@Value-Investing]

I don't know enought about US retail... kzbin.info/www/bejne/rXacmayqntiWi80

[@tsonez]

I think with Amazon, the key question is why AWS is/will not be spun out...

[@Value-Investing]

it is so integrated into the business, unlikely...

[@tsonez]

​@@Value-Investing Yes, in the way that Amazon online shopping related segments wouldn't probably survive long without AWS support. Margins are low, global competition is tough and business idea and customer value creation are not in practice as great as believed. The online shopping segments are a drag for shareholder value creation. Better own something without that drag. For example Costco in the consumer segment.

[@HS-PGA]

Looking at your quadrant @sven does Macdonald’s satisfy charlie mungers good business at a fair price ?

[@Value-Investing]

fair price is the issue...

[@dariocasabella2744]

Update on ABF please. The company is doing well and the stock price is going down

[@Value-Investing]

not yet on the level I would like it...

[@stefmf2800]

Hello Sven, can we get your thoughts on VZ. Looks like a 7 % div + 2,3 % growth (data centers, 5 G etc). Maybe a nice addition for the diversify portfolio perspective.

[@TTTT-sj3vz]

Just buy a bond and go to sleep

[@mathewwilson9776]

Didn’t he say just a few videos ago that he already had a large position in another telco with a buyback yield north of 20%, trading for a fraction of book value? Why would he add another indebted telco with 1/3 the yield?

[@WealthyChronicle]

This is what I love about value investing-patience and a solid strategy. But is Amazon’s ‘high risk, low reward’ still the best option for long-term growth? 🤨

[@andreas4343]

HI Sven thanks for video ! do you consider intrinsic value on your evaluation ? is it important ?, as different numbers on search....asked GPT for amzn stock and based on DCF analysis is 46.7 $ :-) thank you for your opinion

[@TTTT-sj3vz]

He doesn't believe in it , his mantra is p/e of 10

[@samyueldanyo8679]

How is it high risk? Low-to-med at best. High risk should be almost guaranteed loss of 90% - something like ROKU, Unity, etc in 2021.

[@stefand5472]

You are completly missing the expected earnings growth. Also why you sold in the first place?

[@Value-Investing]

I didn't work on that porfolio anymore, and the stock did what it had to do for me...

[@TheScaryGermanGuy]

Yes, this is far away from a full analysis. Just looking at current or forward PE doesn't tell you much.

[@keni_g3]

KOHL'S stock please

[@Value-Investing]

here you go kzbin.info/www/bejne/moGXfph9hcx7a5I

[@alext1723]

At some point Hyundai was planning on selling their cars on Amazon, is it happening? I would definitely buy my car on Amazon if it removes the hassle to visit a dealer!

[@upraviteljvicar8607]

Alexa, purchase me an i30N, please

[@chandiaries783]

Would buy amazon for cloud services , they aren't doing much atm .I will buy if it drops a bit .

[@scottdavies3914]

amzn is kicking its closer competitors ass ,, walmart and titanium chip for ai is in developement ..Jassi is a genius..

[@Value-Investing]

thanks for sharing

[@RobertSchaefer-nl4xp]

What about competion from Temu?

[@RobertSchaefer-nl4xp]

They're customer base is shrinking and broke.

[@NipponTAB]

Temu is selling nearly at loss, mostly competing with other Chinese sellers, such as AliExpress. Temu and Amazon aren't proposing the same type of quality of services (and even products, more globally as Amazon is actually much more than just e-commerce now).

[@TheScaryGermanGuy]

@@NipponTAB Amazon launched Haul which is a cheap shop alternative to Temu. Temu is cheap crap. People don't want to buy crap.

[@jsedge2473]

@@RobertSchaefer-nl4xp Amazon has so many more services they are not comparable

[@ColourRevolution666]

I like Amazon, but my rule is if a stock does not pay dividends i dont buy it. Simple. Torm is up 12% thanks Sven!

[@Value-Investing]

oil prices are up...

[@ColourRevolution666]

@@Value-Investing with gastankers xD

[@zenastronomy]

QUESTION IS THERE ANY industry or ANY commodity at the bottom of the cycle TODAY? in all your videos you talk of industry cycles and buying at the bottom of the dip. But you always end with saying, it isn't the bottom yet, so you'll wait. Is there any industry or commodity at the bottom of the cycle today? Or is everything in a bubble still?

[@Value-Investing]

that is a good question! The automotive industry seems bad, food stocks are also in a cycle downturn. But then again, there is no need to invest all the time, if there is nothing, just wait as would Buffett say!

[@zenastronomy]

@Value-Investing I guess I'll have to wait then. automative industry seems to be going through a technological transition. I'm not sure if i can pick winners from it, especially since the leaders are overpriced. Any videos on some food stocks at the bottom of the cycle?

[@zenastronomy]

@@Value-Investing is adm the only food stock you've analysed a buy? can't seem to find many others on your channel.

[@ren7sp25]

Huge moat for AMZN in IT alone. AMZN, MSFT, GOOG without them no IT. No backbone in society. AI will run on their data. No reason to sell these any time soon. I think you overestimate risk and underestimate reward.

[@ibrahimciftci9599]

He does not understand the business

[@shaneoneil894]

My Costco and Amazon are overpriced. I love the companies though. Held them a long time and plan to pass down to my kids hopefully. As long as the quality holds up I will just let them be.

[@WealthScientist]

I see your high reward low risk investment in the top right…….😁😁😁😁

[@Value-Investing]

:-)

[@EsenOzgur-wu1zc]

I'm currently buying the dips or looking for momentum. Overall, I have long since realized profits and am now relaxed and waiting for the next bear market. Bought XAI320K yesterday -> 27% up right now. A good start to the New year.

[@alessandroagnoletti5958]

Very pessimistic view Sven about Amzn. The more realistic is a revenue growth 8-10% next 10 years and 15-20% earnings growth with margin expansion. Amzn deserve at least 25 p/e. In 2035 earnings could be in a range between 20-32 $ and a market cap between 5-8 trillion

[@Value-Investing]

could be, could be!! But I want all that positive potential for free, that it value investing! Here or there, it actually happens!!!!

[@SakisKotisis]

Where's the margin expansion going to come from? Surely not from AWS, with the trend reversing and big companies migrating back to their private datacenters. Not from advertising, with competition authorities checking their every move. Neither from e-commerce, once there's a full-on trade war with China (60% tarrifs !).

[@lukeearthcrawler896]

So current P/E is 47 and the NTM P/E is 37. To get to 25 with 20% earnings growth, I'd have to wait 3 years at the current price. Why would I buy it here, instead of waiting???

[@jmmjmjbjkkn]

Please don't be offended, I'm sharing this only with good intentions. Greetings to everyone and I wish you a nice film. Day trading is the best way to make money with the help of an experienced trader. In my opinion, this is one of the most important skills worth learning, everyone should invest, not save. Some may agree, others may disagree. My great appreciation for Tony Borden daily signals and tips on the well-researched predictions I received!

[@perocho1234]

Thanks for sharing this information with us. It's really useful in my situation...✚ how can i connect him?

[@jmmjmjbjkkn]

HIS MOSTLY ON TELEGRAMS, USING THE USERNAME

[@jmmjmjbjkkn]

@Tonybtrader

[@jmmjmjbjkkn]

@Tonybtrader🚀💬

[@freshaquariums]

Siri stock on risk reward quadrant!

[@SHANEWestfall]

2025

[@Future_Fortunes_DE]

this "analysis" lacks substance

[@alexc5228]

Typical "value investor" using p/e lens when not all companies should be viewed that way. Look at p/ocf instead. Rookie misstake you will think Amazon is expensive when its at fair value/ slightly cheap typical man with a hammer syndrome. You should also look at how they are growing their high margin segments and their margin expansion. Really bad analysis you can do better than this i hope.

[@Value-Investing]

agree with you, but that is exactly value investing, I want the margin expansion possibilities for free, not overpaying, the opportunity will come one day...

[@alexc5228]

​@Value-Investing no its not value investing solely judging a business through the income statement. You bring up cashflows in your analysis but don't value them? The opportunity is in front of your eyes but you need to change glasses. Look at CSU you would obviously think it's ridiculously overvalued on a p/e basis but if you look closer and understand the nuances you will see its slightly over fair value for an amazing business but with your lens you would think it's a bubble like tesla.

[@qwew2244]

wtf. This is ridiculous.

[@steventaylor6027]

P/E 20 on a company that has unlimited potential revenue streams………

[@noredbull1]

There is only one unlimited thing in the world

[@Andreas-yt9wv]

​@@noredbull1 exactly, that's BEER 💁🏼