Americans REVOLT against 2021 HOUSING MARKET

[@rnt45t1]

Please lord let it crash. All I want to do is find 2-4 acres and put a tent up or something. I'm a simple man. I don't need a mansion. I just want somewhere that's MINE.

[@dwr44]

patience is a virtue

[@lynnf.6649]

The problem with a crash is that the fed will need to make up for everything else that is occurring within the economy. The fed will increase interest rates, so even if housing prices drop, it will be all the same money in terms of payment, or even worse depending upon how high the interest rates climb next year and beyond. If you have cash, then you should be able to capitalize. Most people do not have cash and will be disadvantaged by the system either way. That is what many seem to be missing when they think oh if only the prices decrease by... So what if a home loses 10% of its value/cost to purchase. If the interest rate increases significantly... that lowered cost disappears into a higher mortgage payment...

[@rons5319]

Look for RE away from the bubble cities. Look away from the trendy areas. Look where the elites who are flush with free money from the Fed don't want to go.

[@AlenAbdula]

​@@lynnf.6649 there is refinancing, also you may not have cash now, but in 3 years you could, i mean you cooooould, save to be ready and take advantage.

[@hotmess7846]

Don't forget about property taxes 👺 it's never really yours

[@jong1899]

As someone who has been looking for 2 years I can tell that it’s not just the house price against the economy it’s the quality. So many of the home I have looked at were in terrible condition requiring $$$$ just to get the house back to a mechanical standard. This housing market is a propped up scam.

[@katierose1893]

The realtors are a scam too, they demand $40K for adding no value.

[@dogegamer3288]

DON"T SELL CHEAP...DON'T PRICE DECREASE...HOLD THE LINE! Don't give up your hard earned investment and equity to the basement dwellers. Jack up those prices!

[@Jediah_Jakes]

Reventure Consulting rocks! The data does not lie like mainstream media does. I owned a home in Homestead FL, South Miami-Dade county. It was underwater in the last bubble of 2008. The managed my loss by refinancing with lower rates and massive pay offs. I sold the home last April for 375 thousand. Now I’m renting and waiting to buy my retirement home. I panic when I see mainstream media says this won’t end for years, if at all. But when I consider the source of information, it’s baseless scare tactics. Venture has data mined all the angles mainstream media uses to scare us with! THANKS YOUR A ROCK STAR!

[@michaelrusso4063]

So we indicated to our agent that we wanted to see a house in Stamford CT. A property that already went through a 20K reduction . Our agent told us that the seller's agent sounded very panicked that the house was just not selling. They just found not understand why they were not getting big over asking offers. We visited the house and felt the house was overpriced and decided not to make an offer. The seller's agent called our agent to ask for feedback and why we were not going to make an offer. Our agent told us that this would never happen before in the past 2 years, that the sellers are finding themselves simply not getting the offers they were expecting.

[@springinheaven9924]

Same thing is happening in Colorado

[@jfausset]

Hallelurya!

[@jefff7287]

for sure...multiple properties up here that have seen price declines as well. The sellers got out too far over their skis it seems.

[@pillcosby3949]

@@springinheaven9924 I’ve been trying for about 4 months in CO, have put in 7 offers either at or over asking and have yet to get a home. I’m beyond over it, house shopping should be enjoyable, but this has been extremely stressful

[@jobiet]

@@pillcosby3949 Same in Austin.

[@kays3599]

Filter on a home buying app $350-$450k/ starter home...one or two houses on the market. Filter to $700k to 900k.... TONS of houses, sadly, most of them sit on the market because NO ONE CAN AFFORD IT!

[@evilrealestateimvestor273]

It just tells you that starter homes are not profitable to build for builders. Nothing new. Obscene regulations + high cost of commodities + labor shortage. Which way do you think all these are going ?

[@LittleLambUnicorn]

Happy to see someone calling out Kevin and Graham on their predictions. Used to like them, but they are out of touch these days. Really appreciate you approaching all fronts with real data.

[@J.NX10realestateinvestor]

I agree Stephen graham is a Lame boy

[@pequodexpress]

Graham and Kevin are essentially KZbin entertainers and are forced for legal reasons to claim as much. They get paid for clicks, not critical thinking. They are chum to help sway market forces in predictable directions for the whales to invest.

[@Cyrus992]

It’s likely they are controlled opposition, paid shills and have some hidden way of getting a boost on KZbin

[@nd4539]

I don’t know who Kevin and Graham are, but I’m watching this, so if they get some kind of help boosting their videos it didn’t make it to me. I appreciate the data in these videos and the analysis.

[@chassdesk]

I’d like to see a meet Kevin interview and box this out!

[@mikehall2611]

I love how KZbin fed me a real estate ad during this video. Nick says don't buy, real estate ad says buy now 😂

[@kickboxer8173]

😂😂😂😂 holy !

[@lut2843]

If real estate is so good then why is KZbin putting out ads. 😂🤣😂

[@Natedoc808]

“Do not believe what follows this ad, everything is fine. Consume, borrow and buy.”

[@GG-vh8kz]

Get KZbin premium, no ads.

[@Mechagodzilla128]

@@GG-vh8kz lol noob. Get Ad block, no ads for free.

[@theadventuresofchris1409]

3 quick stories of housing bubble Sold my house $429k in 07 exact same house the one I sold for $429 sold at a short sale for $140k-after I sold that house for $429k I wanted to buy some land to build a house on. I bid on an acre at a live auction we were all standing underneath a tent. I ran out of money at $219k and was outbid and the lot sold for $275k cash. I bought that same lot from the guy who paid $275k cash for $90k cash. He was not happy. New development in the High Country of Arizona, 8000 ft. elevation. Got in early when prices were low and paid $85k cash everyone else financed their lots and walked away. Foreclosure sells started in the neighborhood comparable lots were selling for $25k-$30k. I still own that $85k beauty which is now worth about $80k. I will build on it this Spring. These are true stories. I know it feels like prices will never come down. That's the same way it felt in 07-08. And things are going to get way worse than 07-08.

[@DamonPace]

Sounds like Greer. Great spot!

[@ryanwalthuis1928]

I wish that would happen for us but it seems the market is supported by a lack of inventory and high demand. Demand was strong on 06/07 but there was a surplus of houses and bad loaning standards. I think this time prices will continue to rise.

[@theadventuresofchris1409]

@@ryanwalthuis1928 if you're looking to buy something hang in there. I think houses/land are going to get a lot less expensive. Of course I could be wrong. This feels identical to the last 07-08 crash. House values are way up. Everyone got a home equity line of credit, bought a toy hauler, atv/utv and a sand rail, bailed on their house after the repo they lived in their free toy hauler in their parents back yard or moved in with relatives. Hang in there it will pay off

[@theadventuresofchris1409]

@@DamonPace just around the corner from Greer in Alpine. :-)

[@toeachitsown2050]

Thank you for sharing. If you dont already own, it feels like doom. Everyone needs a home. And wow... I cannot believe your $429 home sold for $140k. That is unbelievable

[@kenniaroberts8873]

I’m starting to see a lot of homes staying on the market much longer and prices decreasing in my area.

[@smashrc123]

Which area?

[@tompain2751]

Same here(R.I.).

[@familymanprepper304]

That happens in winter 🥶 it picks up this Summer. 😱

[@ian2372]

Sales naturally slow during the fall and winter season though. Some of it is that.

[@teriamanning7341]

Prices are rocketing in my area..florence sc..and they are older homes like home from the 1960's

[@carlobremski9427]

I visited a house listed for $300K that had "antique" cedar siding, so antique that it was completely rotted through and felt like a paper bag. If I bought that house, I would have been a literal bagholder.

[@floydlholt9829]

You must be in California.

[@jobiet]

@@floydlholt9829 Or Austin.

[@carlobremski9427]

@@floydlholt9829 Nice guess, but I think Californians would label a $300K toolshed as "ridiculously cheap"

[@floydlholt9829]

@@carlobremski9427 I seen a house in San Diego with the hill about to collapse and slide down with the fence barely holding back the dirt for 550K.

[@p9r4ex8dyk]

@@carlobremski9427 Yup 300k in CA only covers the 20% down payment.

[@kaysmyth7099]

The housing market is out of control. I’ll will wait for it to come down. Thank you for spreading the word

[@edjackson4076]

Curious, why isn’t anyone talking about the impact of the rising interest rates. This, IMO, will be the one absolute truth in the market. The low interest rates have given buyers the opportunity to buy at an inflated price that they don’t currently “feel”. The rate will slam that gap and reality will come. There’s no way these prices can or will survive a realistic and inevitable interest rate. I feel like this dark horse needs to be discussed.

[@dr.markevers8331]

Fine, I will…real estate acts a lot like a bond. There is an inverse relationship between price and yield (interest rates). This is particularly true when real estate is being used as an investment. Much of the demand in markets is being fueled by speculation with lower rates in the corporate bond market pushing investors to other similar investments. Rental real estate is a source of an income stream. You are right, if rates increase, prices will likely begin to come down. That said, much of the buying I’ve seen in my market (Dallas/FtWorth) has been from cash buyers. No one I know trying to buy with mortgages has been able to get a house. This includes new professors in my finance department, even the real estate guy is waiting.

[@cs1992]

What rising interest rates?

[@XMcBainXUSA]

The only time interest rates will rise, is when the Fed and banks decide they want to pull the rug out from the economy to crash it and steal homes from the common man.

[@LeroyGrider]

If interest rates go up in any real way the government will not be able to make the strokes on the national debt, erg interest rates are not going up, everything else will go up food gas real-estate etc.

[@investfourmore]

Historically rates rising do not impact prices. There were even studies done showing the same thing. Lower rates tend to increase market prices but high rates don't lower prices. Look at the earl 1980s. If rates go up, people can't buy as much house so even more people won't sell and building slows down. That means even less inventory and supply and demand drives prices.

[@followthebradleysfun]

Can you explain what is happening in Florida...especially Orlando. Jobs are less than $15 an hour for most people, while home prices are averaging over $400,000. Who the hell is buying these overpriced homes?

[@diana_prince_1]

I am in the Chicago burbs, same thing I wanna know too!

[@eileenmcgovern9193]

People retiring to Florida from other areas

[@josephberlin3723]

People like me coming from California

[@followthebradleysfun]

@@josephberlin3723 please don't California my Florida 😁

[@josephberlin3723]

@@followthebradleysfun I’m coming. Don’t worry I’m republican😀

[@audiophileman7047]

The problem is investors. They're the ones driving up home prices. Get them out of the market, and you will see the real estate market come back down to reality.

[@betruetoyourself7162]

Where do you think your retirement investments in reits go?

[@tuckerbugeater]

Blackrock and the rest of them want to own you. Have a good day.

[@bobsacamano2948]

@@betruetoyourself7162 Exactly they get your 401k untaxed to invest how they wish. When you get your 401k it is taxed.

[@buckbiro]

@Audiophile man is right. If and when this nation becomes a renter society, mom & pop investors are going to lose their shirts. Ask San Francisco, where some property owners can only raise the rent to COL increases and must pay tenants $$$ to move out.

[@rociobermudez5026]

Get them out of the market !! What the hell is this Russia or China to force people.. sheesssh

[@jobiet]

Exactly, Nick! Realtors are mostly full of crap. My realtor is one of those who says whatever she thinks will cause us to buy. I call BS and will not look at houses with her again. No contract with her anymore and will not sign another. Not more houses priced by the selling realtor at more than double what they're worth. We started watching your videos and have backed off and don't plan to buy for at least 6 months. We'll see how it goes, but we are NOT going to get caught in the trap of owing more than the house is worth. Everyone (realtors, brokers, mortgage companies, title companies, inspectors, city, etc) wants a piece of you and they are not going to get it from me. Thanks for all your very critical information!

[@b4804514]

Condos sold in 2005 in WPB Florida are just now back to the prices they were sold for in 2005. It took 16 years to look like 2005. Homes sold today may take years to be as valuable. REaltors are only interested in commissions. Whatever lie it takes.

[@commonsense6846]

Exactly.For the life of me, I just couldn't understand why so many ran out and bought a house worth double and triple it's price, they will never recoup that money, no matter how low the interest rates go. Ridiculous.

[@jakebredthauer5100]

@@commonsense6846 What if the value of the dollar plummets?

[@sergiomartinez2724]

Great I hope you could apologize to her in six months when you see the prices have gone up $60,000 and at least have the guts to say she was right

[@Chas1160]

Your points are well taken. However, it depends where the homes are located. If you look at a 10 year study in San Francisco Bay Area, you will find prices have adjusted with minor dips of 10-25% over this period. Although in the long run, prices have continued going up in the long run. If you are North of Bay Area like Sacramento, be careful with price decreases. I do think housing prices are cooling off though.

[@kevin.malone]

Case shiller index is no longer accurate. It measures cost of housing in relation to inflation, but the measures used for inflation are not representative of actual inflation

[@PineTreePal]

Not saying you're wrong, but can you expand?

[@MagdyTawfikA]

I think it's more accurate to say housing market "cycles" rather than "crashes". appreciate your efforts to prove a point i want to believe but the reality makes it very hard to believe. in southern California, things are getting worse.

[@eggheadegghead]

Not just in SoCal, in TX too, decent houses are flying off shelves in a few days….

[@SignalCorps1]

Just curious, how do you feel now?

[@michaelrusso4063]

The most recent report from the IMF says that they expect real estate prices to drop 14% to 22% for the next 1 to 3 years as the gov stimulus ends, Read their report !!!. that means if you buy a house now at the height of the market you will be underwater with your mortgage or lose your downpayment in the next 3 years.

[@santoyoarmando81]

States like California are gonna go down even more. 🤔

[@matthewp2522]

Would love to read this report can you point me in the direction to find it?

[@HardHitnHstry]

Link to the report?

[@p9r4ex8dyk]

I hope that those buyers go underwater for being idiots, good for them.

[@jeffreymarshall4572]

People aren’t gonna be happy to cobble together $100,000 for their 20% on a $500k house only to find that $100k disappear in 3 years.

[@juandelagarza6718]

I’ve been a home owner since 1976 when I was 26 years old and after selling and buying several homes ( family homes, not investment homes ) I have observed these cycles occur about every 15 years ( give or take a couple of yeas ). The reasons are various but history repeats itself. I bought a new home in 2006 in a upscale neighborhood, overpaid for it, and sold it in 2015 and broke even. Never again.

[@jjohnson8977]

uhh quick search of internet will tell you yep its a 7 year cycle since about 1938 I think

[@nd4539]

In 2017, my mom used a realtor I’d worked with in the past in Boise to sell a home here. That agent moved from agencies between the time I worked with her and my mom worked with her. A few days ago, I got a random text from someone “responding to my request for information on their website” and how can they help me find a home in Boise from the new agency. I asked when I signed up for a request for info (never did) and he said May 2017. ........ my mom got the same text. We think someone new at this agency was digging through that lady’s old files looking for leads. 4 year old leads! We never requested info; I think the “lead” was her inputting us in her system. I thought that was pretty telling of how things are going here in Boise. When agents are scrambling through old files for potential leads, their phones have stopped ringing off the hook.

[@ManInTheBigHat]

I'm looking a manufactured home (aka double wide) with an 8' tall walkout basement and a great view on 1/2 acre in a small town in rural Idaho which just lost its pending status. The deal was contingent upon the buyers selling in Boise, which they failed to do. What!!! Can't sell their house in Boise!!!??? The sellers know I'm out here with cash and have offered the same very reduced price as was pending. I am probably going to pass - or maybe offer with another 16% reduction from their original asking. Or 30% less.

[@TJL2010]

I definitely want to buy but the prices are ridiculous.😔 Pushing for next year👍🏽

[@ReventureConsulting]

Patience is a virtue! Thanks for the comment.

[@ericramirez685]

Next year will be 15% higher .. save my comment you will see

[@chrisaugustine7394]

You should buy now because interest rates are low, so you can have a low down payment.. if you wait interest rates will increase and you may have a higher down payment.. the home prices may decrease but interest rates might increase.. so it's either you buy now and put down a down payment that is low with a higher cost home or buy later with a higher interest rate for a home that cost less... If you're waiting for home prices to decrease with interest rates being low, that may not happen, when home prices decrease more likely interest rates will increase, for prices to go low there must be a reason for that to happen... So buy now

[@stiffdrinkfinance1981]

Nick, whether american buy or not is not my most of my concern because that would be the natural free market deciding on what price should be. however, what concerns me is the shadowy central planners deciding to take supply out of the market by buying properties up via money created out of thin air, it is their stated agenda to turn the world into renters, not own anything

[@TheMichelex20]

Yep and I have a friend that works for the NY stock exchange and she has heard this very thing in meetings.

[@tommcclure1294]

The New World Order/Great Reset goal. You will own nothing and you will Love it. Ask Bill Gates and Gearge Soros.

[@brendak7781]

Exactly!!! Planned and organized by our government controllers.

[@ltraingalaxy122]

I believe what you are saying and I’m still buying in the next three months

[@flyingspirit3549]

We're seeing ever more "price reduced" on listings in Utah.

[@JazzyB9481]

Same in Southern CA. He covered this in another video and I looked at the listing after watching his video and found that he was spot on. The difference is seen more dramatically in lower income areas too, as he said. Some have even been reduced by 100k+. Lately I've noticed that some of them list their homes dramatically below the "estimated value"...seems like some sellers also know what's coming and are trying to sell ASAP while many are still falling for it.

[@JonBirdSr]

A lot of that has to do with the amount of permits pulled for new construction as well and elevated prices.

[@flyingspirit3549]

@@JonBirdSr Indeed! There is building, particularly of large apartment complexes, all over the Salt Lake valley. And prices have climbed to insane levels!

[@SteveBoyer10]

I’m not sure I’m seeing that. Last month there were a substantial number but this month it seems like the market has heated back up - perhaps due to buyers trying to get something under contract before Thanksgiving and Christmas?

[@sarkerm2]

Same in NJ

[@patrickm9953]

I'm seeing more iBuyers buying and selling for a Loss. I guess they make their money some where, but it proves that the Real Estate prices are not Real

[@miamiliving6625]

Don’t get fooled by that! They paid more than asking price to raise the comps in that specific area! They likely sold some of their previous homes at a profit. So overall they are still up

[@desraadams9501]

@@miamiliving6625 even if tax office appraised lower people payed more. Even over appraisers amounts. Now realtor,taxes all get more.

[@sunshineinarizona1726]

I'm aware of supply and demand but I think what plays a large role in this problem is that banks have to get their interest money; with interest rates so low, in order to recoup their earnings they keep approving loans on homes that are way over priced because...banks/mortgage companies still can get their profit. The larger the loan the more profit in interest even if the rates are low. Example: $100,000 home at 9% interest vs same home at $400,000 at 3%.

[@ryanwalthuis1928]

All through 2020 meet kevin was saying do not buy it’s a terrible time just to turn around and say that he bought 10 units in 2020. 2020 was a good time to buy

[@AJourneyOfYourSoul]

Was a great year to buy.

[@jwigley3835]

Yes, I bought in 2020 also. About 100K uptick in value. Even if we see a correction, it won't be like 2008-2012. And eventually it will go up even higher than now.

[@davidhulce6540]

I sold my flip in June and am waiting for normalcy to return to market. I sold with HOMIE and today they sent an email that the market is cooling and homes are not getting multiple offers and supply is high in UTAH

[@__Wanderer]

In the Netherlands a home of 350k has gone up to 700k within 3 years. it's INSANE. Average overbid amount is between 30-100k now i'm not kidding. As a millennial this is so incredibly depressing :(

[@ReventureConsulting]

Thank you for the insight! The global nature of this housing bubble should have people concerned.

[@__Wanderer]

@@ReventureConsulting Definitely has been one of the craziest times for house prices in decades. (if ever?)

[@jjohnson8977]

Where i'm at in US several homes up 100% in one year. Just saw one went from $850 6 years ago to now $3.2 million

[@dougingram7075]

@@ReventureConsulting Is it a bubble when the majority of homes are being sold for all cash?

[@billscarnage]

I've looked at several houses recently that were flipped by zillow, opendoor, etc. They were purchased way over listing and then turned around and jacked up and relisted a month later. One house was $100k over listing just 3 months ago.

[@anitawilcox3301]

Zillow just stopped buying homes according to articles that are circling around

[@jbnotbot4654]

Houses are way overpriced. I earn a reasonable wage but I can’t afford a house these days. I looked at one a year ago. It was $35,000 and old. The guy who bought it paid $30,000 cash and fixed it up then sold it for $180,000! People are crazy after the pandemic lockdown.

[@1Skeptik1]

It sounds like you missed an opportunity? Housing is selling like hotcakes on my turf (zip 34606) and prices continue skyward on steroids. Evidence enough prices are NOT too high and the FED is printing with no end in sight. Conclusion? (There is NO upside in renting.)

[@TheSterlingArcher16]

$35k? I live in an inexpensive state & the most rural of rural parts are way more than that.

[@jbnotbot4654]

Same here but I was looking for something cheap in an area where I need to sleep 2 days a week because I work 3 nights in a row far away from my house. It was a house the person got for a couple of dollars then held it for 2 years and didn’t touch it. He was happy to get cash in hand without fixing it up.

[@jwigley3835]

You can, you just need to look in cheaper markets.

[@explorer8255]

Paul Volcker (head of the federal reserve) in 1980 had to raise interest rates to 20% to break the back of inflation. Housing prices imploded. If this happens again to control inflation, guess what happens to the price of real estate? I would rather buy a house at $100,000 with 10% interest rates than pay 400,000 at 2.5% interest rates. When interest rates rise people will be underwater on their homes. May take decades to break even and even longer if adjusted for inflation. We are at 50 year lows in interest rates....only way to go is up in rates. Very dangerous time to buy a home even if you can afford the payments. The net worth of the home will decline. If you are a cash buyer, you want high interest rates. Buying now is only going to be a capital loss over the next decade.

[@jeffreymarshall4572]

You speak the truth. If some are unsubscribing your excellent data and content, then they are scared of the truth. I suspect these are realtors, mortgage brokers and others who have a financial interest that the bubble continues to expand.

[@nathanielsingleton6302]

Many factors are driving home prices up. Here are a few. Some of these rarely get mentioned. 1. Low interest rates 2. Mass migrations out of densely populated areas into more rural cheaper areas. 3. Baby boomers cashing in on the homes they gained equity in over the past few decades to buy with cash. 4. Corruption! Foreign and domestic entities along with oligarchs laundering money by buying cash and buying over list price. 5. FOMO from retail investor who may be first time home buyers. 6. Massive money printing 7. Lack of inventory due to higher cost of development and regulations (Simple supply and demand). 8. Corporations buying cash to find value for their share holders. Ie: What business does a company like Evergrande have with investing in an all electric vehicle company besides looking to add value for their share holders? I know I’m missing a few more. Please feel free to add on below. 👇🏾

[@ZachBrimhall]

I'm a 25 year industry professional. Never, never, have I been through what is happening now. 2008 was a blip compared to what is happening and what is coming. Still, I recommend people buy/sell if they need to and if it fits with their respective financial situation. Never try to "time" the real estate market. You get what you need at that time and choose a professional with some financial brains to help find the right property. Don't try to time the real estate market. If you do then you are an investor not a homeowner.

[@ellapadilla3585]

A house is and investment. Lol

[@ZachBrimhall]

@@ellapadilla3585 Of course your home is an investment. I never said it wasn't. However, trying to time the real estate market is wrong. It should be done as a long term investment. Buying to flip or speculate would indicate you are an investor. Buying a home should be part of an overall financial portfolio and not all of your portfolio.

[@tonymontalban5603]

....... The main thing is, It doesn't matter when you buy a house but ,. Where you buy and, knowing you can afford to buy. Try never to over pay for a house. Remember the smart buyer's make money when they buy. People who are sitting and, waiting to buy after a crash maybe waiting for ever. Remember , We've been though several down turns with housing already. The govt knows how to play this game. Better than anyone. They will just print more money. Or make ajustments where ever they need to. Be a smart investor. Invest Wisely.

[@Tinab275]

I’m seeing homes that look like my tool shed and about the same size or carpet and decor from 1970 & 1980 with outrageous list prices. It’s just a bunch of ridiculousness but I suppose someone wants it. No thanks; I’ll pass. Thankfully I own & I’m in no hurry at all.

[@Tinab275]

@@aprilflowers2695 you’re right. It’s insane. I can hardly believe anyone would dare put something on the market like that, no update anyplace, AND list it as is with the highest market price.

[@rons5319]

I've seen houses for sale where it looks like they lived there for 40 years and did absolutely nothing -- not even cleaned the place up once in a while. And they want top dollar for it. No way.

[@Tinab275]

@@rons5319 oh yes, This! and no intentions on cleaning it. I think they believe buyers are desperate & nothing could be further from the truth; especially in my case.

[@viktor4207]

Same in my area

[@r.d.9399]

No one really wants them. You can see three or four investors buying the same house back to back over the past year just flipping the house with no upgrades whatsoever. Don't buy right now. Wait for the crash. You don't want to be underwater on your loan.

[@daviddixon1611]

Great content, as usual. One thing that concerns me is what happened during the last crash. People who bought in the FOMO frenzy found themselves severely underwater. (I was in SW Florida and saw several people in my neighborhood who bought homes in the 250K range whose homes, after the crash, were worth half or less.) The Government "forgave" those loans and allowed them to back out of those mortgages and move out. (Those home became distressed gov't foreclosures) Almost all of those home owners had the ability to pay the original mortgages AND almost all of them moved and bought other distressed properties properties at the new low prices. Seems to me that HISTORY IS THE BEST TEACHER. If / when this bubble pops, I suspect politicians will print more money and do the same "moral hazard" mistake again.

[@nohopeequalsnofear3242]

"It doesn't make any sense " Exactly. Bubbles are a distortion in the market

[@justinmark2117]

Most first time home owners are priced out, but not current home owners who are selling and buying new homes with their 'winnings', IE gains. This property swapping seems to be what is largely happening. I'm about to sell my house. Having said that, I may buy another house in a cheaper market, just because maybe the market flattens versus drops.

[@Vogeln]

A few points: 1. You've often claimed that market booms and busts are very regional, as well as rises and declines in inventory. So to imply that the national real estate market is going to crash is an overgeneralization. 2. Rising inflation might be a be a support to the real estate market, as the price of assets tend to rise as people, in desperation, opt to buy their their dwellings rather than paying rent to a landlord that will be raising rents, in response to overall inflation. This is a horrible scenario but it doesn't make sense that in times of high inflation, home prices will drop significantly. 3. As counterintuitive as this may be, the rising number of negative sentiments about the RE market might actually a healthy sign. This tends to modulate the frenzied rise in RE prices - letting some steam out of the "pressure cooker" of the real estate boom.

[@chikibusan]

Home prices started rising way before the inflation issue, inflation is not the cause of high prices it's the consequence

[@e1bo]

Why would people go buy an over priced home when people can barely afford the inflated prices of goods and service, let alone the maintenance on their home. If inflation gets worse, i see the rise in multiple families in one house for the middle class at least.

[@Vogeln]

@@chikibusan People are going to see RE as a hedge against inflation. Those who can afford it, will buy. Cash in savings/checking accounts will lose their value over time, as the result of inflation.

[@Vogeln]

@@e1bo First of all, not all RE markets are equally insane. Markets like the west coast; Boise, ID; Austin, TX; the north east; etc, have already started correcting. Other parts, though they've risen significantly, are not outrageous. If you throw in other factors like state income tax, covid mandates, etc. some markets present a great value proposition and are thus more attractive. Secondly, multiple families living in single family homes are illegal. It's also not part of American culture to do so.

[@chikibusan]

@@Vogeln the survey is not saying that, the ones buying are investors and speculators

[@inaperfectworld8087]

Agree. Don`t buy now especially from corporations.

[@markshaw7947]

Are you trying to tell us not to pay 700k for a 150k house. Big crash on the way. Just because your can buy something doesn't mean you should. Correction time is here.

[@Handleme23]

Houses won’t crash that much.

[@simplereef4854]

Rubbish thought

[@azspotfree]

The problem in LA and Phoenix is that rents are still through the roof and because of extreme demand growth aren't likely to decline anytime soon. A decent 2 bedroom apartment in Phoenix is 2500 to 3000 per month, the highest ever in phoenix by far. In LA you can easily pay 4 to 5k per month. So in these markets, you lose 40 to 70k per year of your income paying rent after tax considerations.. In 2 years that's as much as 140k you've lost. So if you buy an overpriced house instead, you get a better place to live and unless it loses more than 140k in value over the next 2 years, you're still better off than renting. It's a real catch 22 for renters who want to buy a house in these markets, not sure how it will play out.

[@Damariobros]

I feel like it will crash… if only investment companies and landlords would stop artificially propping the prices up and increasing them and scooping up ALL the homes so there aren't any homes left for prices to reduce on.

[@ReventureConsulting]

Thanks for the comment! I'm in the same boat as you. I suspect we'll see the investor demand soften with combo of rising rates / dipping prices.

[@Damariobros]

@@ReventureConsulting Thing is, I'm not even an adult yet and I'm already angry about this situation. The two reasons are 1) I have a huge amount of empathy for those who are suffering because of this, and 2) I fear if this keeps up, it will affect me for a large chunk of my life, and I will be screwed before I can even _legally_ be able to buy a home… RIGHT BEFORE I gain that right. And that makes me absolutely livid. I'm not even 3 weeks away from becoming an adult, and I feel like the rug is being pulled out from under me right as I am about to take the last few steps up the stairs… with a big demolishing rig ready to destroy the stairs right after I fall off of them.

[@khaledattili7941]

We sold our house in NJ. on April, in a matter of 2 weeks we had the best offer, we are renting because prices are ridiculously high, we have been seeing houses lingering on the market since July and many had price cuts more than one time, I agree with you and we are waiting for the decline so we can buy again. Thanks to your efforts on this topic 👍

[@VazBrasil]

I own 20 properties and a brokerage in Boston proper. Most people put very little down (3-10%) so monthly payments are considered as much as price in low-mid priced homes. A person might be able to afford a 700k house at 2.5% interest which would result in a monthly payment of +- $4000. If rates go up to just 5% (still quite low) then even if the house goes down to 600k your monthly would be +- $4500. When the fed tapers and rates go up (which seems imminent) prices may go down but your monthly would go up. Seems like a lose lose for your average home buyer. Though of course it depends how significant the correction is and how much rates go up.

[@kilduce4423]

How would your payment go up if it’s a fixed interest rate?

[@ronwilson1586]

I agree totally with you. I am old and this is the worst situation I have ever seen and the housing market is BS!

[@ReventureConsulting]

Thanks for the comment, Ron! I appreciate your perspective.

[@ReveredDead]

None of it is sustainable. When housing costs are way above median income. It is not going to last. The people who bash your information or those who talk constantly about how this "isn't another 2008 bubble" are the ones who are invested in Real Estate and have a Direct interest in it. At the end of the day. Normal family buyers who just want to own a house are getting bent over the table and screwed by these people.

[@akrenwinkle]

Sunborn Arizonan You wrote "The people who bash your information or those who talk constantly about how this "isn't another 2008 bubble" are the ones who are invested in Real Estate and have a Direct interest in it." No truer words were ever written. I've written here, myself, all these KZbinrs who put out clickbait titles containing the words "crash," "lower," "bubble," and "correction"... only to totally walk it back by the end of the video and say these things won't happen... they all have this in common: they have skin in the game big time, and don't like to admit the party's over.

[@dougingram7075]

I am an average middle class millennial with a modest household income of $60k supporting a household of 5 and still was able to buy the exact home I wanted in 2021. These over generalizations of who is buying homes vs. who isn't is obnoxious. Not every home buyer is a greedy wall st investor.

[@ReveredDead]

@@dougingram7075 But think about this. Why did you buy a house in a market running hotter than it was before 2008? Do like buying when things are at their highest? You might live in a less volatile market or barely touched by the high pricing so you may be fine but in my state. It is the most volatile and in the top 3 most overpriced in the country.

[@cameronprince6938]

We were ready to buy but knew the prices here in NW AL seemed ridiculously high. I stumbled across your videos and my husband and I decided to wait! Thank you!!!

[@b5thomas7]

5-10 years is more like a real estate cycle rather than the duration of a crash.

[@BigSnead76]

@@admin2909 DANGEROUS SPAMMER!!!

[@SignalCorps1]

Yes, RE cycles are generally around 7 years, but crashes are not part of the general cycle and do take about 5 years to play out. The last crash started in 2006 and didnt hit rock bottom until 20011

[@syedsaif7910]

There are a lot of factors why the housing prices won't slow down in warmer areas of the US. A lot of companies moving their bases from CA to TX / FL (Example: Tesla). With a lot of people Working from Home, people are moving from colder areas to warmer areas. So, if you are living in TX / FL/ NC/ GA, you will not see a market crash anytime soon (may be 1-2 years). And until rental prices do not come down home prices will not come down. Instead of paying $1800 on a rental home, ppl will always prefer paying $2300 on the mortgage.

[@markhefflefinger3689]

It's the monthly payment that matters. These are the lowest mortgage rates in history. Take the 1981 mortgage rate of 18 percent today and home prices would cut 50 percent overnight.

[@ReventureConsulting]

Thanks for the comment! That's an interesting point. But if the monthly payment is what matters, why do so many people say it's a bad time to buy?

[@rockn997]

You’re right, it’s the monthly payments. What’s the difference of the prices go down 15% and then the interest-rate‘s go up High.

[@-1Hawk]

Remember in March of this year the steady increase of home prices were mostly attributed to the cost of lumber. As of the end of August this year prices were back to normal. Home prices are overinflated and I will wait it out..

[@pamelajaskot4538]

True

[@philliprubin4996]

Unless you're an investor it doesn't matter. A person can't live in a cardboard box. Renting is stupid, as you can buy for about the same price as rent. My home has appreciated more than $200k in three years and it doesn't matter, I'm not selling....

[@mudvayne2311]

U should sell before the crash so u can buy at a cheaper price

[@gregs8685]

Renting long term versus owning is normally not the better choice, but renting while you wait for a market correction makes a lot of sense.

[@philliprubin4996]

@@gregs8685 That's if you can find a suitable rental and are ok with the fees lost in the process. For what I'd net in the end it isn't worth it to me....

[@philliprubin4996]

@@mudvayne2311 When you're done with closing costs, moving, real estate sales commision, a new loan at an unknown interest rate, storage etc. It most likely won't be worth the effort. And, with what's going on in Washington, inflation and open borders. I wouldn't invest in anything right now...

[@Ziegfried82]

Renting is not stupid. It mitigates a lot of risks that buyers have to deal with for example: Major repairs, job loss, job moving, neighborhood going to pot, etc. There are situations where buying is smart but it certainly is not as smart as some make it out to be. I've dabbled in real estate for several years and I've seen enough to know a lot of people get screwed buying homes.

[@puggychu]

This housing market is crazy. Average 1 bedroom condo here in CA runs $399k up! Monthly payment with 5% down of $19,950 is $2,397. (P&I of $1,574 + prop tx $253 + Home insurance $75 + HOA $255 + Misc fees $240) Recommended ratio of income/mortgage payment is 3:1 so a person income has to be $7,191 to afford a basic 1 bedroom condo in CA. How many people net this kind of monthly income?

[@SuperlativeElectric]

I surely hope for a correction, but even if prices dropped 30%, we’ll only be back to around 2018 levels, which was still pretty high. Let’s see how things go, keep up with the solid info!!! 💪🔥

[@jeffreymarshall4572]

@Kevin Schmidt I agree. I think it could start to snowball downward quick.

[@grownupgaming]

@@jeffreymarshall4572 Wishful thinking... nothing points to this coming correction being half as bad as 2008.

[@jeffreymarshall4572]

@Kevin Schmidt …Fed taper, mortgage foreclosure moratorium ending, stimulus ending, bonus unemployment ending, Covid bonus and hazard pay ending…we could go on all day ;-)

[@toeachitsown2050]

I would be THRILLED by 2018 prices... and a level playing field

[@toeachitsown2050]

@Kevin Schmidt you forgot that 90% of buyers thought the world was ending and this bidding was highly emotional with little logic

[@wolfpac550]

Housing market is out of control.

[@carmenhealer4635]

I have been buying California real estate since being in college in 1983 when I bought a mobile home that actually went up 50% with a little paint and carpet. The prices here go crazy because of all the FOMO and the sense that inventory cannot keep up. Then the prices crash when we all wake up and realize that almost no one can afford these prices. I just sold my beautiful view home 11 miles from the North San Diego ocean because I had another home I could live in. My emotions say, "I will never be able to buy back that home", but my rational brain says, "prices will correct and I will end up with something better in 2 to 5 years".

[@lindyinclusive8163]

That’s the spirit!!!👏👏👏👏❤️. You’re taking great care of yourself and that’s what’s important!!

[@jneener67]

Tired of you investing in our states , this is why we have problems , investors always pushing their self in our cities for profit.

[@jackdaniels8898]

Lost out in 2 homes in Huntsville yesterday. On and off the market in 2 days. 9+ offers on each. So it used to be 20+ offers…. So yes there is some slowing….. also less inventory as we approach the holidays.

[@freddyohcentralfloridareal4588]

As long as investors keep buying all the available real estate, the home prices will keep going up

[@ptyleranodon3081]

But at some point you would think it's no longer seen as a good investment. At least if enough people get wise to it

[@dawhike]

AND rental rates!

[@horacegreeley4060]

But when they decide to run for the door its "Correction City" . 😁

[@jon9103]

Until it doesn't. This is a classic economics bubble, people buy because they are confident they can then resell to some other fool without anything fundamental changing. They may call themselves investors but if their entire strategy relies on finding a bigger fool, they are speculators and speculative markets only end one way: in a crash. Don't get me wrong, that can take years to occur, and until the bubble burst many will be convinced that it isn't a bubble. Also you can definitely earn money in speculation but the trouble is knowing when to make the exit before it bursts.

[@marthacaldera5865]

This is ridiculus we been rentinging for 6 years and the owner told us that he needs the house so we need to move. We can not find a home to rent. Even an ugly trailer that was $500.00 now is $ 750.00 In Vegas. We are city citizens and decided to move to Ensenada Mexico.

[@afbanales]

Dang...calling out kevin and graham! Good on you! About time someone steps up!

[@deed3259]

Kevin who?

[@JasonMorford]

I actually stopped watching Graham awhile ago, he seemed to start just wanting clicks and views.

[@Tonymanero1960]

@@deed3259 The young guy who ran for governor of California after the recall,........................he has KZbin financial channel too.

[@deed3259]

@@Tonymanero1960 governor lol wow

[@Natedoc808]

Never buy a house for more than it appraises for. Our target is offer 15-30% below appraisal especially with these veritable blind silent auctions where instead of making an offer and then Negotiate, it’s “seller accepting offers until 5 days from now and will decide which offer to take.”

[@aMonkeyfist]

The homes that are being offered right look terrible compare to before Aug.

[@RubenGarmyn]

Not all but they're ALL OVERPRICED :-)

[@SteveBoyer10]

@@RubenGarmyn I agree… there are so many 30 year old homes that need a ton of work being listed at high prices. The good ones get gobbled up and bid up 5%

[@MCspeedy22]

Seriously, I had a dump offered at 525k with wooden planks behind each window and patio slider to prevent a break in.

[@rmbrugge]

Unfortunately investors have the money to buy up these properties at this ridiculous time. The normal person is screwed how sad is that!

[@rons5319]

The historical price of the average house in an area has always been 2.4 times the annual average income for one person in that area. If the price is higher than that simple formula -- I would never buy.

[@keithj460]

California and NYC have entered the chat. The ratio has been startling for decades, no crash, just new highs. The average household income in LA is $62k, the average home price is 900k. So with your 2.4 ratio you expect the average home to return to 150k in LA?

[@amandagarcia3276]

Ron I believe the Case Shiller index shows what you mention, that house prices always go back to that ratio eventually. Sooner rather than later one of two things must happen: 1- housing prices come down, or 2- wages go up considerably. From my position I hope prices come down but I think the odds of 1 or 2 are a toss up right now, with people refusing to take low paying jobs and a lot of labor union activity.

[@jefff7287]

In my entire life I would not have been able to buy a house at that value in my area. Americans also have a unique perspective - around the world is multiple times higher than what you quote.

[@keithj460]

@@jefff7287 Yes US real estate is cheap if you look at Europe/Canada/Australia, and the kicker is....USA people earn more money.

[@JasonMorford]

The start of investors leaving just started when Zillow said they were not going to be buying houses any more.

[@kimgillespie630]

Hey Nick! Be encouraged. Your dissenters cannot argue with data🤣. Keep doing what you do!!

[@jc2604]

Yeah because "spurious connections" = data. pffft

[@crocodiles122]

A family with a household income 150k per year needs 25 years to save up for the down payment for an average detached house in Toronto. With the debt to income ratio is 180% for an average Canadian, literally living paycheque by paycheque, this shows how unsustainable the housing market is. More and more young professionals work distantly or quit their job by moving to suburbs for a bigger house. Immigrants start to move back home due to prolonged lockdown and high living costs in Canadian big cities. More and more people having multiple mortgages and who are going to rent them for 4k per month, not mentioning maintenance, property taxes, utilities to keep those places?

[@Cyrus992]

What you see in Los Angeles is how the 2000s housing bubble and implosion didn’t correct the way it should have. The correction of the 90s lasted longer than the later downturn from 2006-2012 despite the 80s boom wasn’t as large. This is because there was far more greater Federal Reserve intervention later downfall.

[@JonBirdSr]

noted

[@shoebox1918]

I'm not sure if the stimulus checks or investors support high real-estate prices. I think the high prices are supported by simple greed of real-estate agents suggesting to home sellers to put a high price tug hoping to sell for top money. I see in Houston they start high and reduce price gradually every 2 weeks or every month looking for the right buyers to bit.

[@nenacorrales3168]

I also think the same.. this Realtors, all they care is about their puckets

[@AJourneyOfYourSoul]

It doesn’t matter how many people are priced out of the market as long as demand can buy the current supply.

[@jeffreymarshall4572]

Um, more folks “priced out” means less demand.

[@DJ-zx8tr]

Houston here 3/2020 same home sold for 330k, sold again 4/2021 420k and now a bigger home is at 390k with massive price reductions and sitting longer

[@memo3252]

I agree with you and love your videos. However the more affluent understand the devaluation of the Dollar offsets the inflation due to devalued dollars. Investors believe the devalued money and fixed low rates will drive prices up overall and lock on low rates. If rents cover the cost and expenses as investor, buy it.

[@jibberjabber-fm6pb]

Finally an educated comment. home prices are re reflecting in flation. but inflation rate will correct itself too

[@limo5724]

This. Unless inflation gets under control, RE still sounds like an option to hedge against it to many. Although, this may not last as home price inflation continues to outpace dollar inflation

[@jibberjabber-fm6pb]

@@limo5724 i see market cooling and prices getting cut here in south west fl

[@limo5724]

@@jibberjabber-fm6pb OH that's great to hear. In Southern CA prices are still stubbornly staying up

[@memo3252]

@@limo5724 if you are looking to flip probably the wrong time. Of you are buying for 10-15 year hold. This is a very good time to buy actually its always a good time to buy if the numbers work. However if you stumble in personal finance and can't get up and are forced to sell at wrong time. You could lose your ass. That's why they have bankruptcy and start again. There is always risk.

[@puravida5683]

As an expat and because of the U.S. housing market nightmare. I have been purchasing reasonably priced and low expense homes in Costa Rica and Panama. I am waiting on the sidelines to buy a home in Naples, Florida, as my 6 month residential/vacation home. Currently, the same beachfront homes in California and Florida, I can purchase at a 50% discount in Costa Rica and Florida!

[@gregs8685]

That sounds good, but I’d be worried about crime, medical care in Central and South America.

[@flaviusbelisarius3240]

Oohh calling out Meet Kevin & Graham. I agree with you that both of them have minimized the impact of any housing crash that you argue for. Let's see who is right but I do believe your arguments are stronger!

[@avesselindeed]

You’re a breath of fresh air! I am currently locked into a New Construction home that has not yet started the building process, please elaborate on the impact of these type of homes.... thank you

[@eduardoduarte5892]

Yep agree!! In AZ if you look in Redfin the same real state agents want to make 200k over the normal price!!

[@teresakenton2219]

Arizona doesn't even have great weather the summers are brutal.

[@theadventuresofchris1409]

I'm in AZ also. I see the same thing. I save all the really high priced stupid listings so I can watch them go down. I'm seeing junk that sold at auctions in 08 for $40k and now their asking around $400k. This can't last!

[@JH-zn9tc]

@@teresakenton2219 alot of older people buy condos and smaller homes in AZ as a secondary residence for half the year

[@jaybarnett5554]

As they are over building at warp speed, East Phoenix has gone insane. Homes, condos and apts eating up all the farm land. Gilbert is turning into CA.

[@eggheadegghead]

Searching for a decent house in Dallas area, housing price is not going down, as a matter of facts, a few decent houses just listed for a day then sold….. didn’t even get a chance to tour them……unbelievable.

[@christinerobertson9596]

Red states are going up- Blue states going down- sorry but true- Moving from OR to FL

[@eggheadegghead]

@@christinerobertson9596 it seems so, although I think one of the major contributors is people are moving from more expensive areas to cheaper areas. so, those inexpensive areas are no longer inexpensive.

[@taurus1379]

Excellent video my friend! You’re the only one out there who speaks the truth and calls things as they really are. Keep up the good work!

[@reneecollins9681]

I think you would be very stupid to pay more than a house is worth cuz remember the bank is only going to letting you what the house is worth the rest has to come out of your pocket and then when you go to sell it you have to news across the next person is not buying something over price what are people thinking you're going to work three times harder to hold on to it so you won't get to enjoy it anyway good luck greed is out there

[@ionu4535]

Did I miss your [lack of] point on what banks are doing on LTV. If prices are not supported by comps, buyer has to make up difference in price through the roof and the bank’s appraisal. What say you here - 20 year broker and readers would like to know.

[@serge2039]

Here's the thing that a lot of people tend to miss in their predictions of the housing market crash - rising inflation and dwindling value of USD. When your cash money is becoming worthless it is better to hold it in anything besides its cash value. This is one of the reasons why the market might not crash any time soon. People are trying to invest their money in literally anything that holds value and the most straight-forward approach and something that most people can easily understand is real estate.

[@serge2039]

@Amy Callis while this is true, over a longer period of time real estate is going to provide significantly better value than holding cash in a bank regardless of whether there is going to be a crash or not.

[@youtubait1]

Not when you buy at the top of the market. Plus there are alternative investments.

[@ManInTheBigHat]

@@youtubait1 : Please describe alternative investments that carry the same security as real estate. I'm all cash now and looking for such investment and avoiding real estate until I find something I love to live in - which can take a while.

[@youtubait1]

@@ManInTheBigHat international stocks.

[@jakebredthauer5100]

@@serge2039 Deflation is a possibility.

[@walterbunn280]

As far as real numbers, I've tracked prices of real estate here in mid-valley Oregon since April and prices have stalled or dropped since that time. Some properties haven't lost any value, but they aren't going up in price either. Other homes have lost as much as $60,000.00. The condition of the house, the location of the house, and the raw lot size all seem to be pointed factors in whether it lost value or simply held value. I can confirm that inventories of unsold homes are on the rise. More over, the rate at which unsold homes are accumulating is faster than what's being reported. That could be the difference between a lagging and leading indicator. As far as any of that goes, This entire thing has shown me that the Zestimate tool is complete and utter trash, and may actually be responsible for some of the unreasonable rise in real estate pricing that has been seen.

[@ariatrish917]

Nailed it again -- Investors and Stimulus/Moratorium programs are the major reasons. Great video! The sad part is 5 years is a very long time in one's life.

[@billthebuilder1579]

Yes the stimulus money has dried up. No more PPP for business. No more enhanced unemployment. No more stimulus checks to individuals. Interest rates are rising slightly. Child tax credit payments will end without a budget being passed. Student loan payments resume in January. Workforce exodus due to mandates.

[@nubetoob9292]

He was at 100,360 subs a week ago. Now at 103,000. Not sure how fast the channel is growing but it doesn’t seem like you lost too many subs.

[@pequodexpress]

Gambling is supposed to be illegal in most places. Why is housing run like a casino?

[@petero1068]

Totally agree with your assessment - especially how the agents are selling the market with lies.

[@BoostedMotorsports]

Don’t think your 3 year timeline is correct. FED is increasing interest rates in Q2 next year. That’s when prices start to fall significantly

[@devo7390]

For us its a stupidity to buy a house right now. Everything is so overpriced and you can see sellers lowering the price with 50,000$ and still cant sell it. The hell if you're willing to lose 50k than you're realistically asking for way more than what the house costs. A year ago I could buy a 3bed, 2 bath house in my area for 180k, today it costs 280k which is crazy. If I buy now what would happen is I will pay 280k and when the market crashes I will be stuck with a 180k house and 280k mortgage. Thank god we have another year before we will be forced to buy something as our baby will need a room.

[@TreatsOnTheStreets]

Don't be concerned about subs you lost from your last video. You don't want people like that in your community anyways. Onward and upward my friend. Your community is built from those who are hungry and open for the truth however inconvenient it may be. Controversial topics are the topics most needed for discussion. Being stuck in echo chambers is the biggest problem with how media is consumed these days.

[@veronicaegidio2374]

Amen amen amen, the media is controlling our world, not truth.

[@GigiWright]

What was the content of the last video?

[@TreatsOnTheStreets]

@@GigiWright it was about how democratic governed cities essentially have the worst economies.

[@andrewf8486]

I’m with you, but there are so many people looking for a house because there is a shortage of housing. Last I heard it was somewhere around a 4 million house deficit. I believe that what is going to happen is the housing market will stagnate, not plummet. It will drop a little, then the people that were previously priced out will buy, which will bring it back up a little so on and so forth. The reason that this market is different is that last time there was a shortage of jobs, and people weren’t in the position to buy houses. Now people are in the position and just opting out. As soon as the market dropped back into their range they will buy.

[@john.maynard]

An observation: In my market (south Orange County CA), I’m seeing more and more Zillow-owned properties with price cuts that take them below the Zillow purchase price. Many listings were sold to Z/closed within the past 30-45 days. At the same time, Zillow continues to forecast ~10% price appreciation in this area… Maybe Zillow bought undesirable properties?

[@threelittlebirds274]

I'm seeing the same. I'm also wondering why Zillow stock is trading at much lower prices than it did in Feb 2021. I haven't investigated why, just wondering if it might have something to do with heavily discounting properties to get sold while prices are still high.

[@gregs8685]

Zillow obviously has a vested interest in showing inflated “Zestimates”. Don’t trust them.

[@stevepailet8258]

one thing I will say again is that you have been right about your analysis. Buyers think the prices are to high, Banks think we are on the cusp of the down side and wont lend knowing they will have bad loans on houses that are no longer worth what people pay and finally the commercial buyers like blackrock or zillow are going to be stuck with a lot of housing stock bought near the high and at a premium. Foreclosures are going to trip the market downward. Lots of new housing stock coming on line just getting finished as the builders are being held up by various supply shortage, But they are in an area of $300 - $400 a sq foot. NOT GOOD unless one already had their loan locked in and the buyers have these loans ready to go (still at massively inflated price even with close to free finance rates). Give it 12 months and supply is going to be massive and the demand likely will abate also as more people go back to work in the office and children back into a school rather than work from home/ schooling from home. The Biden economy is causing inflation. Going to be interesting markets where the froth has been blown off the top.

[@alscalzo8374]

Would love to hear opinions on the changes made and increased cost of Flood Insurance especially here in the Tampa bay market

[@lilshaz8378]

If you wait it out then you are renting at an outrageous price. Just recently saw $2780 for a 3 bedroom 2 bath rental in a so so neighborhood. That's almost 2x my mortgage pymt! How does one buy while trying to save plus a 6 mos reserve? It is still crazy out there but starting to see small price reductions but not enough.

[@sskgrs]

Just like the current stock market doesn't make sense especially since mid 2020 where company revenues barely moved much but all 3 indices are 50-70% higher since mid 2020,, the real estate prices don't make a lot of sense. I think it is not going to change in the near future. Many Americans are preferring to stay home and work, mortgage rates will be kept low by Fed, investment instruments other than stocks are worthless thanks to Fed, people are investing in housing for themselves or as investment. I believe real estate is going to stay strong well into late 2022...

[@chrisaugustine7394]

It's a good time to buy because interest rates are low, like 3.2 percent of a loan, and that's why house prices are high so you can put down, $7000 now to buy a home.. when the house price decrease, interest rates will increase, so when a home has decrease to $200,000 with interest rate are 7 percent your down payment is higher than $7000, may be $14000.. if you want to buy, with a low down payment, do it now, but if are waiting for home price to decrease, there is possiblity that the interest rate will be high, so you will put down a bigger down payment for a cheaper house...

[@thomasjones8920]

I love that he’s talking about something no one else is talking about. It’s the unpopular opinion for sure. Housing in the Bay Area is going to crash again 🔥🔥🏠🏠🔥🔥

[@skirby121]

tampa bay area i hope

[@sskgrs]

SF bay area? I doubt it.... But if you are planning to buy, might as well wait it out for another 6 -12 months.

[@Just.Being.Melissa]

It’s still a very strong sellers market in NorCal, but prices are starting to decrease slightly

[@jwigley3835]

@@Just.Being.Melissa Agreed. But the prices traditionally dip during this time and then pick up again. Crazy times right now though.

[@xbox360137]

thanks for backing up the data keep it up!