Analysing Zelensky's "Victory Plan"

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[@axl1002]

Hey Vlad, Solovev called Putin to step down, what is your opinion on that?

[@VladVexlerChat]

HE DID NOT. He was talking about Gerasimov. He also implied that it’s a decision that’s up to Putin. The subtitles in the video were deceptive - they said commander in chief whereas Solovyov said “the top guy”, which is a reference to Gerasimov. Putin is called C in C or President.

[@axl1002]

@@VladVexlerChat Disappointing...

[@johnboie4964]

@@axl1002 I guess we'll have to wait a little longer for his 10th story window retirement flight.

[@axl1002]

@@johnboie4964 Nah, just watched a clickbait vid with AI voice over, my bad.

[@EvgeniyYakushev-m2u]

@@VladVexlerChat Vlad, not a single comment about Israel's attack on Lebanon?

[@PokemonGuy666]

Vlad: "I'm not at my best". Proceeds to be better than 99.9% of online informers. If you just found this channel, welcome. Please add to our collective understanding and compassion.

[@VladVexlerChat]

Very kind!

[@Cagstok]

Who is the 0.1%? I'd be very interested to follow them!

[@johnboie4964]

@@Cagstok Your TDS wouldn't allow it.

[@EggBastion]

@@Cagstok you're already here

[@kennethsharp9666]

Zelensky has consistently surprised me how effective he is as a leader and political actor, since the jab at him was always that he was just a comedic actor.

[@ak5659]

Ikr? Everyone seems to forget Zelensky did graduate from law school and pass the bar. But still, that's hardly sufficient background for what he's handled. Talk about 'rising to the occasion '.....

[@fainitesbarley2245]

Good comedians are some of the most intelligent and perceptive people there are. And the best politicians are those who do other things first

[@theb1z0n]

Some cultural cue about Ukraine is that people here are notorious for criticizing their elected officials. You can’t believe the level of that. Choosing a president for two consecutive terms is unreal in modern day Ukraine. So naturally he received lots of criticism on local politics. But even we from time to time like his foreign policy. That must tell you a lot.

[@Cagstok]

Imagine one of our (UK) career politicians in Zelensky's shoes when Russia invaded!!

[@KityKatKiller]

​@@Cagstok I actually could imagine Starmer in that role somewhat. as a politician he's sort of the "good kind of boring". His politics are deeply unexciting, he's not too daring, but he is pragmatic and will dig into the job that has to be done. He's not pushed over by having to do actual work, like the conservative officials of the last decade. And his unexciting politics have the immense potential to unify the country if faced by significant _outside_ stresses.

[@NATESOR]

trump said he'd call up zelenski and putin and say, "YA GOTTA MAKE A DEAL!" . The crowd cheered. I get that it's theater, but how on earth do you not just burst out laughing at this idea? Like the only reason tens of thousands of people are dead is because no one thought to tell the two leaders they gotta make a deal...? And this is it? This is the master plan for peace that's 100% going to work? Just yell 5 words over the phone at them? Ok...

[@sweetvictory5643]

Many simpletons in USA believe there's no war in Ukraine, just lies to get money out of USA... Therefore DT 'loves' such supporters of his who also send him money.

[@AdamBrusselback]

Honestly, the people the aforementioned argument would actually convince have absolutely no concept of global politics. No appeal to reason will work with this type of person. Trump said he'll fix it. That's the end of the thought.

[@stefansekulic7903]

I guess it's because Trump's audience believes he's some sort of saviour who will bring peace to the world. What he says is like telling Jews to make a settlement with the SS.

[@greatwhiteflash1645]

"The crowd cheered" is the point there. Tens of millions just want simple answers and will not accept anything else.

[@stefansekulic7903]

Well Trump is more of a stage performer than a politician, so he makes these comical statements knowing that his audience will cheer and applaud, of course the reality is totally different and who knows how this war will end.

[@andrewkiyko7413]

Things don't look good for the 'collective west' if it's all of a sudden Zelensky's job to explain why Putin shouldn't be allowed to prevail in Europe.

[@johnboie4964]

Good, you're starting to catch up. putin's invasion of Ukraine immediately put the absolute leadership ineptness of many Western countries on display. Elections have consequences. One of the 2020 election's consequences was russia's invasion of Ukraine, followed by our complete inability to properly deal with that invasion for at least 6 months (still today but not as severe).

[@dukejivetalker7541]

No shit. Did everybody become a pussy or what?

[@atrlawes98]

The West is sleepwalking into an even greater catastrophe. We are lucky that the Ukrainians have been able to resist so effectively, we won’t get lucky a second time.

[@TheReferrer72]

Russia is finished, and it was the moment it decided to invade Ukraine. Prevail in Europe talk is not taking into account what has happened like Sweden and Finland joining NATO, Poland arming up to the teeth, the Baltic countries having a reasonable chance to be defended now that the Baltic sea is a NATO lake, Russia losing hundred of thousands of men while NATO hardly any, Russia's economy is in shambles as their best customer has vastly reduced it dependence on it(while its soft power is now vastly weakened). This war is an utter disaster for Russia.

[@dzheyd9609]

Exactly! This baffles my mind! Putin clearly stated what it wants from NATO. To return to 1991 NATO configuration so that Russia can grab all the Warsaw pact states back and remake USSR 2.0. If he succeded flawlessly in Ukraine then his next target would have been Baltic states, in another special military operation in an idea that article 5 would not be triggered if operation went fast and smooth. It means direct war with NATO. It was clearly stated intentions of Putin! And after almost 3 years of this genocidal war, ukrainians have to still explain why they should support them! It is blowing my mind! Is that people lost all of the thinking ability?

[@CarolynAcosta-mw2dl]

I am not clear how Ukraine survives without winning.

[@dukejivetalker7541]

Precisely. Ruzzia needs to be taught a lesson.

[@georgiossgk7384]

The same way South Korea and West Germany survived.

[@FreemanDK90]

​@georgiossgk7384 Both of those countries had american troops on the ground to protect them. Sadly, I don't think it will be a case of Ukraine.

[@stefansekulic7903]

​@@FreemanDK90So North Korea didn't have China and the Soviets behind them?

[@ИванЖалдак-ю8у]

@@FreemanDK90 Retaking all the territory will not end the war. We could freeze it potentially until putin dies, but it would require guarantees of the boots on the ground from the West, if not building bases in Ukraine and stay, like it was in South Korea and Germany. I would call it plan B. What we're doing now is holding on, it's plan C. Plan A would be to see to the breakdown of Russia, forming new republics and decreasing the military potential there. This would be the most strategically sound approach, but Ukraine can not do it itself.

[@extrastuffing7539]

I found your analysis of the Russia Ukraine war to be realistic, not pessimistic. I hope Zelensky's speech writers and policy makers pay attention to your channel. Best wishes Vlad.

[@silviuvirgil12]

I would only say that in my eyes, Zelensky deserves more praise for how he's doing. All these interviews, public events, speeches - are high stakes. A huge pack of dementes wolves are watching for the smallest mistake...

[@EvgeniyYakushev-m2u]

And he made many mistakes, but the media will smooth over any of his mistakes. It will be interesting to see what Ukraine and Ukrainians will say about him after the war is over and his term as president is over.

[@горобчикрусофобчик]

@@EvgeniyYakushev-m2u Our opinion now is well presented in the comment by @silviuvirgil12 We largely believe he made several mistakes, some of them serious. And we also recognize that weight of those mistakes is inflated by the stakes of the war and all things considered, he has a good run and no other figure in our politics, especially his oponent on last presidential elextions could do as good of a job on even remotely. Also it is recognized that his internal politics have been good and he haven't forgotten about internal affairs and keeps promises that he made before, despite the war. Good reforms and new investments into rebuilding and infrustructure and healthcare. Some exceptionally remarkable reforms in healthcare and education. The situation there now is outstanding and unrecognizable in comparison to what we had at the time of his election. I wanted to add info about what he does besides the war because everyone outside Ukraine are oblivious about his achievements on internal politics for obvious reasons.

[@bondoqbn7318]

​@EvgeniyYakushev-m2u just like what Russians will say about war criminal Putin.

[@stefansekulic7903]

@@EvgeniyYakushev-m2u Ok and who hasn't? What are his biggest mistakes?

[@n.b.1267]

yes, but. He's doing great but he's playing the game to a large part with oldschool arguments that don't appeal to the auditorium. that's a pitty, as he is wasting his screentime that way. You have to think like trump and argue like trump if you want to get the backing of his supporters. Plus like Vlad has said: there is no world order, it is word chaos at the moment. Stop appealing to something that's gone. Start telling a story of how to build a new one (that's more consistent than the one Russia and China are telling their audiences).

[@capnbrappn]

In 2022, I was proud of us. Finally, the arsenal of democracy could do what it's meant to do. In 2024, it's hard not to feel a certain sense of shame and revulsion once again.

[@russellhammond4373]

Thanks for your expert overview of the situation. Please take care of yourself.

[@VladVexlerChat]

Thanks back to you!

[@Rickxta]

Love the distracted neighbour analogy!

[@ianbray5946]

Take care mate. The world needs more people like you 👌

[@mariarucci78]

Thank you beautiful Vlad 👏

[@VladVexlerChat]

Thank you back! 🌻

[@kentalanlee]

Time for the chicken soup with garlic again. Please don't overdo it, my friend.

[@Borsuk3344]

Putin not stopping is the only answer an average voter will understand. Common people don't understand how they get poorer and how their country slowly loses influence by not defending the countries they promised to defend. People don't see that big part of their wealth comes from the globalisation, from trading with other countries, from those countries not being under direct influence of our enemies. Edit: and yes, in long term it could really bring a challenge to article 5.

[@inzhener2007]

Maybe but there is one critical factor: Washington DC prohibited Ukraine to remind the public that it was the US who made Ukraine to give up their defenses in the 1990s and that the West made Putinism thrive, even called Russia a democracy and a partner for decades and still hopes to do business as usual with Putin. Not with Russia, but exactly with Putin.

[@Niko-hs3ls]

Love the Beautiful Community ❤

[@galactusfantasticus4814]

The argument for the West with regards to Putin attempting to invade Poland is this: YOU believe that you have adequate deterrence in place in Poland, and in the Baltics, etc.... but does Putin?

[@ds6914]

he's not stupid....

[@johnboie4964]

​@@ds6914There is no recent evidence of what you claim.

[@nosteinnogate7305]

@@ds6914 The invasion of Ukraine was pretty stupid.

[@aftertwentea]

@@nosteinnogate7305 and 'pretty' is an understatement...

[@franciscomiranda1336]

He was stupid enough to invade Ukraine. Even Macron tried to persuade him.

[@glenn5328]

Good evening Vlad. Hope you are feeling a little better soon. Always a pleasure to have you around for a chat. Not sure it’s possible but the way to bring matters to a head would be for Poland Finland and the Baltic States to actively act alongside Ukraine….no article 5 just a straightforward war with an imperialist neighbour run by gangsters.

[@VladVexlerChat]

Well the security guarantees may well need involve a coalition of the willing

[@johnboie4964]

​@@VladVexlerChatWhy pussyfoot around? It requires a US guarantee of protection or NATO membership. Neither is likely.

[@manicbranic]

Maybe you Vlad need to do the one hour video on why Russia will not stop.

[@sweetvictory5643]

Because it's Russia...

[@ak5659]

Russia has been invading its neighbors (especially Poland and Ukraine) just like this for 600+ years. There's nothing new with the invasion of 2022.

[@MrStasyan2013]

@@sweetvictory5643 essentialist much

[@0sue609]

I would appreciate an impartial view of this war.... You are my choice!!!

[@dashanimasandman65]

Because it wont. Putin expected Ukraine people to meet russian troops with bread and salt. Possible minor protests on the streets. Easy walk in the park. He was decieved by his own spies, who were making billions on the "good picture on Ukraine direction". There is no such picture in Baltics and Poland. "He wont stop" is a lie

[@_amalfitano]

Hey, I was busy catching up on your other videos. Good to see you today.

[@VladVexlerChat]

Thank you! I had a Zoom cardiology appointment today in my chair and tried to record the Chat there, but couldn't do it!

[@Cor6196]

From your lips to our State Department's ears! 👍✌️

[@enessou]

As much as I want a Ukrainian victory, it has seemed clear more or less since the beginning that the West's aim is Ukrainian survival, not a Ukrainian victory. A Korean scenario, as you basically also lay out. Because if you're the West and you want a Ukranian victory, you approach this war very differently than we have. It is frustrating, depressing, it makes me deeply sad and angry to think that for the rest of my lifetime, this injustice and atrocity will simply be a fait accompli. One we could have reverted if only we had wanted to. But alas, we are cowards. But at least we have the beautiful community. Cheers, Vlad. :-) Edit: Also, best luck with your health. I know from personal experience that it can get rather soul-crushing if one's body does not cooperate.

[@sp4292]

Can only echo what you said. I find everything about this very depressing. What is clear to me for Europe is going to have to get the finger out on not be relianced on ANY US tech This whole the us dictating what other can do with their purchased weapons drives me insane

[@sp4292]

And if trump wins. Game over. Will never buy an American product / produce again. In pure spit Chinese all the way.

[@Blackgriffonphoenixg]

​@sp4292 it's not even that. It's learned helplessness. Europe constantly defers responsibility to the Americans every time it can, because of both laziness and fear of blowback.

[@sp4292]

@@Blackgriffonphoenixg Case in point. We need to pull away from america. Develop our own weapon/Ammo etc NOT reliant on any us tech. Its maddening the US dictates what Europe can and cant do.

[@AAB463]

@@sp4292we are stronger together than divided. It’s a disagreement. Or for all we know, behind the scenes, we are more United than is known.

[@humanDNA]

I felt like I'm back in university and my professor is rating my paper

[@LR-jk2jk]

Great video as always, thank you very much. Great analogy of a neighbor busy watching Netflix. That neighbor is also a professional fighter, but is sitting in a corner of his living room, afraid to challenge the robber.

[@bevanshirley8263]

Looking great mate... Ill be back for the second half soon... Good shit so far!~!!!

[@johngorentz6409]

I value your analysis. Thanks for doing it, and for doing it under difficult personal circumstances.

[@vetXerius]

Always a good day when the chat channel posts!

[@davidallison5204]

It is always a pleasure to hear from you Vlad. Thank you for taking the time.

[@susanacton5007]

Thank you Vlad. Pls do take good care of you

[@limyrob1383]

I would liken this to the old saying about the man who taught his dog to talk. Its not about how well it is done, it that it is done at all. I see Zelensky's victory plan like that. It may or may not be a good plan and I doubt anyone can judge that. Time and again Zelensky has surprised doubters. What matters is that Zelensky has the confidence to clearly articulate a victory plan and get people behind it. Putin does not have a victory plan and just by having a victory plan Zelensky has taken a big step towards victory. Anyone who cycles or skis will know if you look at an obstacle you hit it. Look at the clear path and that's where you go. Zelensky has described the clear track and now we will see how it steers others.

[@lorenzwiedemar1837]

I shomewhat disagree, it was a mistake for Selensky to apeal to a "world order that is not tjere anymore". While factually true, in most western nations, there is no sense of a "world order long gone" for our daily lifes have not yet been touched by the absence of that world order. We still live as it was 1994 and someone has to tell us what's at stake. And he has to be brief messaging to us, as our span of attention is reduced to the time of an average tiktok video.

[@sweetvictory5643]

But USA wanted and did the bombing of Serbia for 78 days in 1999 ....

[@2639theboss]

I disagree with your disagreement to some degree. I dont think most in western nations have the sense of a lost world order in the same as other parts of the world. However, I do think the dialogue in many of these nations about issues from immigration and wealth inequality and lack of perceived or actual societal trust is indicative of a feeling that the world order has changed in a way that they do not like. Its just in a domestic lens rather than a global one. But the source, the angst, is all one and the same.

[@kennethsharp9666]

Well done Vlad!

[@frantsel5711]

Much love vlad! Thanks for your thoughts and ur time!

[@Metaskot]

When this latest Russian invasion started, one of the hardest parts I tried to comprehend was Russian concerns with Nato expansion - that they believed Nato could invade them. Just seemed like bullshit to me. For me Ukraine moving over the boarder showed I was right all along. Wonder how Russia's defences are across from Finland, Estonia, Latvia and Poland - my guess NONE. Thanks again Vlad :)

[@beatonthedonis]

Your comment doesn't make sense.

[@sp4292]

It was bullshit. You are dealing with a half crazy deeply fearful phycopath who has seen how other dictators ended up. One of these days.. hopefully soon. Let's just hope the alternative is not even worse.

[@aliquill2252]

@@beatonthedonis It does make sense, he just didn't lay it out that well. His point is that if Russia were genuinely concerned about cross-border attacks, and in particular from NATO countries, then it would maintain a robust military presence along its borders with those countries. If, as Kursk has shown, Russia doesn't even bother to guard its border with Ukraine (a non-NATO country), then what are the chances its borders with Finland and Poland are seriously guarded? The Kremlin knows that NATO is a defensive alliance (and that Russia has a nuclear deterrent), so Moscow's whole anti-NATO narrative is largely baloney, a smokescreen.

[@mattpotter8725]

@@aliquill2252 We don't know that Russia's borders with NATO countries aren't guarded and to be quite honest with you it doesn't matter because Putin already feels like he's at war with the West and if NATO troops moved across the Russian border then this would possibly give him the real excuse to escalate. The border with Ukraine that Russia left unguarded in the Kursk Oblast they did so because they didn't expect Ukraine to divert forces from the East to do this, and maybe they felt if Ukraine did this it just stretches their forces even further and they can regain this later after they've gained what they want to in the East of Ukraine. If NATO troops were to enter Russia it would be completely different and what does this even mean because you can't go half in, if this happened it would be all out war and it would have been instigated by NATO, which is something I don't think is wise, so whether the Finnish-Russian border is not well guarded doesn't matter because NATO isn't going to go to all out war with Russia because it would be extremely messy and casualties would be high, and that's not even thinking about the possibility of nuclear war. I think the real problem has been the inability of the West to ramp up artillery production and so Ukraine hasn't been able to hold the lines and has had to fall back. It is inflicting massive losses on Russian troops by doing this whilst defending is one thing, going on the attack against heavily dug in troops, trenches, large numbers of troops large amounts of artillery at their disposal, is another. To be able to turn the tables they need to have the same advantage over Russia that Russia has had over Ukraine for the past 12 months or so.

[@ak5659]

There's also the tiny little fact that NATO did not 'expand'. Russia's western neighbors practically stampeded Brussels to join NATO. They were sick and tired of 600+ years of invasion s.

[@Cagstok]

Excellent Vlad. Thank you! And good health sir.

[@johnroscoe2406]

Enjoying your video Vlad, currently watching, but couldn't resist commenting early. I greatly respect your willingness to use certain terms in appropriate context. One thing I strongly dislike about modern discourse is the politicization and tribalism of words.

[@VladVexlerChat]

My criterion is not so much truth, but whether the usage facilitates the audience to engage truthfully - if it does, I am tempted to use. This particular usage is vey much stylistic - it's certainly not true that any reasonable perspective must accept these terms.

[@sofiyagrachova3669]

Regarding the future of Russia from the Ukrainian perspective vs the same from the Western perspective, I do not see an insurmountable difference. It is all simple, the West just needs to understand: the sooner Russia loses this war, the more stable the Russian state will remain. The more protracted is the war, the more disastrous it will be for the Russian state and society, leading to a total institutional and economic collapse with unpredictable consequences. Russian potential victory, on the other hand, will not make Russian state or society more stable and sustainable. On the contrary (see the effect of Chechnia wars on the current Russian regime but magnify it by 40). So, from the Western perspective, the only possible way to avoid the dissolution of Russia and subsequent chaos is to make it loose the war sooner rather than later. There is no other way about it, sorry

[@EvgeniyYakushev-m2u]

Heh.

[@MrStasyan2013]

Russia is more stable after the Chechen wars, both the country and the regime.

[@MrStasyan2013]

Not a good place to live(I left), but objectively less turbulent internally in terms of basic controllability and monopoly on violence, which is the primary component of being a state. Yes there was the Prigo incident, but Putin reigned in a lot of the diversification of violence and recentralized his government, he managed to get "reelected", he is generally keeping his affairs in order. If he also manages to get the political bonus of winning against Ukraine, he will be golden in terms of authority inside and outside(and he will declare almost any result as a win btw). Since (as much as I hate to admit it) he IS the Russian state, if he is good, the state will remain and as long as the west can negotiate with him(and they can and they do, for the duration of the war) it is beneficial for the west to have one predictable counter agent, that is also going to have a solid grip on "his" country. This all gets interesting only when the bastard dies, but it's quite far away

[@jameswelsh7789]

Disagree, the goal here is to make sure Russia no longer Challenges the West and particularly Europe. This is a war of attrition but not really for Ukraine as the west will continue to provide just enough capacity in order bring a weakened Russia to the negotiating table. We will prolong the Defense of Ukraine as long as possible.

[@jameswelsh7789]

@@MrStasyan2013the western powers are seeking a viable Russian partner that will favor trade with Europe and the West. Until then Putin is the man to maintain order whilst we are nevertheless committed to weakening his country substantially.

[@BendyLemmy]

Vlad - this was excellent - and you managed a full half hour. It's nice to see that you can rise up from the choppy waters we know you're going through.... Sometimes I wonder if illness enhances you - some of your imagery, fighting a war with chopsticks ROFLMAO... Lots of love

[@stephanbaumeister4507]

Vlad, thanks for sharing so much

[@anderspuck]

Thank you. Great analysis.

[@bernardakle2199]

Thank you Vlad! Your thoughts felt like they ring true. Deep, clear points that opened my eyes to the fact that this situation is extremely complicated. So many seemingly clear issues that have a multitude of subtle nuances with solutions that vary the spectrum of possibilities (and that's just taking into account the pro Ukraine side). Even though I came out of this episode like having received a sucker punch, this doom and gloom reality can, if acted upon by the justified good, go a long way to achieving a lasting peace not only for Ukraine but for Europe & beyond! Slava Ukraine!

[@DebbieKennedy-c5w]

I wish you would open a site where people share their personal problems with you. You would help so many people. I love listening to you. Debbie.

[@b1daly1]

Thanks for you usual insightful and thought provoking analysis!

[@sabinehahn9774]

"Veni, vidi, vici" is exactly what Israel with the support of the US does, isn't it? Not surprising that Putin says "why not me?"

[@JuliaMRichter]

Please keep in mind that Ukraine never attacked Russia. They neither planned to attack Russia, nor wished to eradicate Russia. Ukraine was attacked for wanting to be a western style society.

[@sabinehahn9774]

@@JuliaMRichter I understand that, however, it might have been better to ask and head for neutrality - I can not really blame Putin for worrying about NATO encroachment, in particular as Russia made that clear over and over again - a little nugget the Western media and politicians never really mention much.

[@ukopia7743]

This is so much End of Cold War 2.0. It wasn't resolved in the 1990s, so it's back again. And I doubt it will be resolved this time either, considering the total lack of even a concept of a plan.

[@nursultantulyakbaycats]

hope you are doing well my friend vlad

[@VladVexlerChat]

Thank you!

[@VoltageLP]

Have you seen the UNSC circus yesterday? Highly recommend that one, better than any stand-up show you can find

[@adamski-l5w]

Thanks for the discussion. I gave video thumbs up. I mostly disagree with you.😊 1) Totally disagree with the proxy imperial part. I understand your argument but to me unless the imperial power is actually trying to project coercive power then it’s not imperialism. Cartoonising your argument it seems to me that any action between countries where there is a mismatch in power potentials is somehow imperialism on the part of the more powerful country. That’s just silly. 2) Global order is under serious challenge. Does not mean we should not appeal to it. It is in everyone’s interest (not just the global “west”) to maintain this Global Order. To go back to the pre WWII situation where it is just accepted that countries redraw boundaries by force will add fuel to further and further conflict. 3) Few listen to one hour lectures. VZ is doing well in his call to stop putin. 4) I disagree with your general assessment of Biden. In my opinion he only looks semi reasonable because we compare him to the infantile DJT. Back in the 80’s and 90’s Biden was correctly seen as a plagiarist and a mediocre politician. And that is the main reason why there is no conception of victory in DC. Thanks again for the discussion. Lots of love from Brissie.

[@FranMacdonald-f5n]

I do agree that people will probably not listen to a 1 hour lecture and VZ is doing his best to get the argument across in the circumstances.

[@grahortarg9933]

There is no conception of victory because there is no such thing, period. Ukraine can't win, it's just not something that can even be defined. Ukraine can not lose. Not be incorporated into Russia. And that means fighting until Putin dies from natural causes, be it a year or 30 more years. That's all there is.

[@cacogenicist]

Perhaps somewhat more persuasive from Zelenskyy would be something like this: _What happens if Russia wears us down bit by bit? What happens if, after years more of bloody war, Russian forces, having also now invaded Moldova, are deep in western Ukraine? What do you think Poland's response would be in that case, with Russians on a war footing, near the Polish border? Will Poland trust US and German assurances that Putin will not order troops into Poland? Are you sure? Or will Poland send forces across the border to establish a buffer zone?_

[@Kris_M]

It's frustrating that the West expects Ukraine to explain why it needs to win, while the West should already know that by themselves. I feel like the West is sleepwalking into a future it doesn't want and doesn't want to do anything about it either. There was a time the West stood for some kind of stability, now it exists just as a bunch of weak words...

[@RyolithRandil]

Wokeness is part of the reason. We tend to associate only the far right with putinism but it's both extremes.

[@adamski-l5w]

I agree with you both.

[@grahortarg9933]

It's not "why", it's "how". What is the win for Ukraine and how should it achieve it? The question without answer even in Ukraine itself.

[@РоманГаймарсенко]

Vlad, thank you for continuing to share your well-informed and thoughtful commentary on the invasion. You're my favorite English-speaking analyst on the matter.

[@planningahea8505]

It's sad we live in a world where a moral argument is sufficient no more to stop a global bully.

[@orion3253]

Moral arguments have stopped very, very, very few bullies global or otherwise. They do mobilize change however.

[@svr5423]

you misunderstand the human condition. we don't care about morality. We care about self interest.

[@orion3253]

@@svr5423 WOAAAAAAAAAH! NEVER HEARD THAT ONE BEFOOORREEEE!!

[@richardfinlayson1524]

thanks Vlad, very helpful, its getting difficult to keep a balanced view, m having trouble understanding what i think just as im having trouble understanding others, im trying to juggle my habitual beliefs with the things im learning about the world, i guess sometimes i have been a bit naive and idealistic but i have always tried to keep it realistic and be able to talk to people of all stripes, i think i can do this by not talking to people about politics in an over the top way and trying to appeal to common sense, i mean i have to suppress certain beliefs, or ideas sometimes and i try to keep evolving and being open to ideas as well. these days though its getting harder to do that and i worry about a general negative direction i see things going in, im concerned about the way we dont understand each other, and mainly a lack of compassion and concern for others. this went on a bit longer than i intended, thanks for helping us all understand a little bit bettter.i always find listening to you calming.

[@ZoltanBojas-ug6nf]

No not Poland a baltic state is enough just a minor territorial dispute over some useless piece of land to test NATO. If they fail the test, NATO collapses, Russian influence soars. If not, he pulls back temporarily and turns Ukrainians into part of it's warmachine. We jave seen in the war that quality doesn't always stop quantity. At the minimum Europe is forced into an arms race and that is very costly in deed.

[@rv2167]

Russian bots like you blame Europe for everything. Russia is ruled by unelected old evil dudes who think the USSR was the greatest so they're trying to rebuild it. Those nations will die before being Russian slaves again. Thankfully, those same old unelected Russian evil dudes are insanely corrupt and stole most of Russia's wealth so their military, infrastructure are shit and life is pretty shitty there so millions have fled since communism fell, almost 20 million if you include the millions leaving since this war. There, I summed it up nicely for you.

[@JB-mb1qf]

You are fantastic..as always, beautiful, peaceful harbor…love, Julia

[@ColleenC-n5v]

Thank you, Vlad…..So sorry you continue to feel poorly. It’s brave and noble of you to soldier on with your in-depth analyses. I feel I’m in a bit over my head with today’s discussion of Zelensky’s Victory Plan. I think it will help me to here his presentation first, and to to rethink and reconsider the dynamic considerations you raise here-in. In the meantime, bless you on this journey…..And a heartfelt thank you, once again. Peace and Prayers to you and all who gather here into the fold of your Most Beautiful Community!!🌻💙🌻💙🌻💙🌻

[@Zoroff74]

Now I want the t-shirt with the U.S. & German flags and the words: Netflix'n Chopsticks...

[@davidgroom5059]

Thanks

[@charlesgrainger6988]

Thank you so much Vlad. You are a great person.

[@claesvanoldenphatt9972]

Ukraine’s devastating success in Kursk and now the ammo depot in Toropets, coupled with the Russian Sarmat missile test disaster demonstrate that Russia is incompetent and vulnerable, incapable of winning this war. This ought to radically change the argument regarding support of Ukrainian victory. The actions and events speak for themselves that Ukraine is a force to be reckoned with and will remain so, and that Russia has been incompetent and overrated for decades.

[@goenzoy712]

But that's nonsense This rocket failure is irrelevant for present running war with Ukraine. With Kursk roughly the same if Ukraine can't keep position long term So only impact situation would be the ammunition depot

[@claesvanoldenphatt9972]

@@goenzoy712 no it shows how deeply incompetent the Russians have been all this time. They have never won a war on their own in the last century and a half. It’s a reminder that we’ve been manipulated into believing they are a potent threat. Their nuclear arsenal is likely impotent.

[@notaseriousbeaver]

​@@goenzoy712But your own reasoning is nonsense. Russia is doing nuclear blackmail against the west, so of course it matters if the launch failed. Its literally the opposite effect of what Russia wanted. Just that Krusk happened is massive, and you discount it totally because Ukraine Might lose it in the future? Just an insane logic. You are worse than the Russian mil bloggers 😂

[@goenzoy712]

@@notaseriousbeaver Russia s nuclear capacity are not effected from this lunch they work also without .This test was for a specific weapon . And Kursk incursion should achieve exactly what ? And I personally dont have anything to do with Russia

[@vincentperron6594]

@@goenzoy712 How exactly do the launch failing is irrelevant to the nuclear capacity? Unless they plan to threaten to bomb themselves they need to launch successfully their nuclear warhead.

[@danielaplaiasu-oy8rk]

Thank You, Vlad. A mind like yours makes the difference.

[@Broken_robot1986]

Vlad out here breaking my heart but gently of course. The stories always ended with and they lived happily ever after, so why can't we?

[@suem5082]

❤

[@charmquark6366]

Much love and gratitude to Vlad for commenting so promptly. Please rest well!

[@n.b.1267]

Dear Vlad, thanks for that piece - it is depressing in a way (as it is addressing certain momentary truths) but in a way it shows some perspective as well (although you seem shy to articulate it - but strictly speaking that's not your job here anyway). Thanks for the broomstick and Netflix - joke, beautiful picture. I liked it so much I had to laugh out loud...

[@dcseain]

I think this was a realistic conversation. Thank you for your insights.

[@anthroposium]

Hello, I hope you're doing well even if it might be a bad day!

[@VladVexlerChat]

Thank you so much!

[@johnboie4964]

​@@VladVexlerChatYou actually do look better today 🍺

[@chepulis]

Cucumber! Cucumber!!!

[@frenzalrhomb6919]

WTF?

[@Aaron-rw3lv]

How could you say cucumber! How dare you sir! The cucumber is nonsense we should all say banana in response to your cucumber!

[@howtoappearincompletely9739]

Tofu?

[@rhino5100]

@@frenzalrhomb6919 It's a callback to a comment Vlad made in the first moments of the video when Vlad talks about a knee-jerk response to "Bananna"! It's there. I won't give you the timestamp.

[@frenzalrhomb6919]

@@rhino5100 OK, in the first minute or two, you say? I'll have another look. Thanks for the reply, mate.

[@kerstinsjö]

Russia People have to get rid of Putin. How will we ever trust Russia again?

[@sbirchsbirch6232]

Hello beautiful Vlad.

[@PlanetJeroen]

just reacting to the intro, I find the quotes around victory plan more scary than the use of terms like imperial and proxy, now back to the video :p

[@VladVexlerChat]

I'm afraid the quotes need to be there and most major media are running with them too

[@kirstinevad347]

Hello wery beautyfull Vlad. 🌱🍀👍

[@VladVexlerChat]

Khello!

[@clairerobinson7658]

The new phrase from Jake Sullivan & Joe Biden is a just and sustainable peace not winning. Thank you for your insightful analysis. Be well Vlad, we need you.

[@Katoshi_Takagumi]

Please, don't mention this Sullivan character, now I have to suffer from a loss of appetite.

[@scruffy1234]

What about Russian financial collapse and demographic collapse

[@johnboie4964]

Backup plan.

[@elysiumfields]

Slow, like continental drift.

[@johnboie4964]

@@elysiumfields Slow for now, but a cliff right out of a roadrunner cartoon is coming before spring.

[@suzannstrohmaier2578]

Demographic collapse seems to be a real concern... Very low birth rate.

[@johnboie4964]

@@suzannstrohmaier2578 Frozen oil wells resulting in economic collapse will come first.

[@nurseSean]

My neighbor keeps giving me chopsticks…😂😂😂

[@barracuda6900]

Vlad, will you issue another commentary on Mearsheimer? He's at it again, and I really can't stand him. Yes, I know we're supposed to disagree tolerably and in a healthy way, but John Mearsheimer just seems relentless in the face of all facts and reason. What's behind his words and actions, do you think?

[@h2didenkov]

Can't debunk him yourself, can you? Need mental gymnastics for that

[@VladVexlerChat]

Yes I am planning a major video on him - it’s planned but may be a few weeks before I start work on it. health allowing.

[@Ellelilly8666]

Mearsheimer irritates a lot of us lol. He should stick to making peanut butter and jelly sandwiches and stop trying to pretend he knows what he's talking about.

[@barracuda6900]

@@h2didenkov I'm sure you're a better mental gymnast than I am. Bot.

[@michaeldautel7568]

With Sweden and Finland in the NATO alliance the order has far more oompfh . Get Russia out of Ukraine and install Nato in Koenigsberg . Negotiate the finnish peninsula to go back to Finland ! Actions have consequences.

[@Trash0815]

I think this was outstanding even by you usual standards touching many topics I find annoyingly not addressed openly.

[@davidcerutti8795]

Iappreciate your language here. I've thought for some time, yes, the proxy war is the "ground state" of this system as a theoretical chemist might say. That "ground state" is being stabilized by the fact that Russia has nukes, and the basic dispositions of the United States and Russia as maritime and continental powers, respectively. I also applaud you for identifying the agency of Ukraine as a key way in which this simple model of the situation breaks down. Ukraine's agency cannot be discounted, especially given its size and home-grown willingness to fight. And, Russia is neither great nor powerful (Professor Mearsheimer...)!

[@stevenjohns-savage7024]

Don't over stress it affects your health 😃. Strength in numbers. No proxies. Work together 😊

[@zibbitybibbitybop]

I disagree on one bit: Zelensky was appealing to American global interests, which still exist even without a formal order. It's a valid point, Putin's chaos does not serve our own interests, not even the selfish ones.

[@sweetvictory5643]

Even in USA Kremlin has been influencing various politicians and people in the government for many decades by sending their operatives to many places, like to universities on student visas, where they recruited future government employees.

[@ak5659]

I always knew there was a sharp divide between those with connections to areas behind the former iron curtain and those without. However, I had no idea that those without were so seriously detached from reality. Even people who grew up during the cold war seem to have forgotten everything. Five years ago I'd've said you were exaggerating. Now? Not so much.

[@windsnexus9064]

thank you

[@Hexanitrobenzene]

It seems that Vlad agrees with Stephen Kotkin, that the Korean variant with security guarantees is the most viable solution.

[@neilwilson5785]

You know, it is nice to be invited into a beautiful community. And to find out that it is composed of people who actually care has my vote.

[@whoisme678]

Good analysis

[@Aaron-rw3lv]

Banana 🍌

[@taxicabnumber1729]

How could you say banana? Cucumber!

[@brentonmitchellcreative]

Thank you for an extremely engaging and insightful conversation. It's a lot to think about and then hopefully 'hear' the overall theme of what is being played out in this conflict. Many instruments are at work, but Ukraine's long and costly struggle to rid itself of the influence of authoritarian values must be allowed to succeed. It should be supported emphatically, and with more resolve than is currently the case.

[@alfajuj]

Why is this an existential war of survival for Russia?

[@NikkolasKing]

Wishful thinking on the part of anti-Russian folks. Meanwhile, Putin remains popular as ever and Russia is more powerful and relevant than at any time since the end of the USSR. (a fact acknowledged by unbiased people, even Westerners. It's not a matter of liking or not liking, just a fact)

[@grahortarg9933]

It is definitely not an existential war of survival for Russia. It is, however, and existential war of survival for Russian Empire and Russian Superpower. Without capturing "Russian lands" - that is, Ukraine, Belarus, Kazakhstan Russia will remain small, regional country, without any hope of developing into something bigger - simply not enough population. There is no threat for Russia as it exists now, but without Ukraine, Russia will never be something more. Russia has already lost that war, though. It is unlikely that Ukraine as a whole will be integrated into Russia, and without it, the dream or greatness is dead. There will be a LOT of blood until people will accept the death of the dream.

[@ludvigkarle1743]

Please raise the volume of these videos. It's like a magnitude lower volume than other youtube videos.

[@henriikkak2091]

Ukraine is in the same predicament as Finland was at the beginning of 1940. I wrote in 2022 that one of Ukraine's biggest challenges was the West and specifically the US. That idea got rejected -- as long as it takes, right? And so, I too wanted to believe that Ukraine could be different. Ukraine is not going to be happy with the deal we got: territorial losses, displacement of a large percentage of the population, no reparations, Finlandization, and a faint promise to join NATO in eighty years' time. Ukrainians aren't going to settle for that. Finns didn't want to either. But it does seem to be the West's view that it should be happy with being Finland in 1940 instead of being Ukraine in 1940...

[@FerdinandZebua]

Broomsticks... or boom sticks? 🤪🙃

[@svr5423]

broomsticks -> rockets

[@karabenomar]

Vlad, I'm not clear on what security guarantees there could possibly be for Ukraine besides NATO membership. Anything less will allow the protecting powers to weasle out of their commitment like they did with the Budapest Memorandum. In contrast, the cost of throwing a NATO member to the wolves would mean the end of the Western alliance and it's this attached cost that gives Article 5 credibility. Maybe you can expand on your thoughts in a future video? Thank you for your work and best wishes, you most beautiful of all political philosophers

[@photonotavailable7936]

Good luck 🍀 with your health.

[@steveyork3240]

Where can I find literature on this broomstick-chopsticks theory. Great commentary.

[@Hexanitrobenzene]

I think this is "original research" :)

[@johnmullin4175]

The trend is Ukraine is getting stronger and more innovative by the day. Its contribution to the West is fresh blood, fresh thought and fresh understanding. It is a growing asset because of its potential triumph.

[@metalli9]

Will the time come, when Vlad premasters the audio, so i don´t have to turn up the volume when entering his video, and hastily turn down on the following one? :D

[@metalli9]

Still Audio quality itself is good, just a bit too silent. Love the content though.

[@VladVexlerChat]

It's so erratic on this channel I am sorry, I am hoping to make it stable on main channel videos.

[@GarrFagen-zc3em]

I've never heard this first world problem articulated so well. A lot to unpack there.

[@thomash3716]

Thank You! Made me think about our world being a dream for too long... it made us unaware of reality and slow in our minds...😕 A pessimistic thought maybe but also refreshing!😉

[@The_ZeroLine]

The problem is that there are quite truly an endless number of obvious reasons why it’s in our interest to support 🇺🇦 that is common sense yet the media never discusses. An hour long lecture will be summarized into a paragraph and may not make any difference.

[@whynottalklikeapirat]

I am eating with chopsticks as i watch this as it happens

[@Katoshi_Takagumi]

Chopsticks for eating, broomsticks for dealing with... unwanted pests. A wisdom that escapes the White House.

[@whynottalklikeapirat]

@@Katoshi_Takagumi or boomsticks

[@25usd94]

We in the US need to recognize the unique role we have in this war to stop the march of brutal tyranny before it is on our doorstep as Zelenskyy mentioned

[@горобчикрусофобчик]

That's a good talk to have. Wanted to hear your thoughts about the plan. Thank you for that. Sounded like you only critisized him. Don't know if it was an intent. Would like to hear more when there is more info on the plan.