ANU Indonesia Project

About the seminar
Indonesia’s democratic transition was a success, and now is in the third decade of democratic experience. But it has been backsliding, bringing the country to the edge of competitive authoritarianism. During the three-decades of Suharto’s authoritarian rule, the economy grew at 7% annually, while the democratic Indonesia grew only at around 5%. Higher authoritarian growth resonates with the so-called Lee thesis, popularised by the founding Prime Minister of Singapore, Lee Kuan Yew. It is argued that that development requires some restraints on democracy, famously put as a choice between two “D’s” - democracy and development or between democracy and discipline. Its proponents hold the view that poor developing countries are not fit for democracy.
The Lee thesis is supported by high growth phases under the authoritarian rules of Singapore under Lee himself, Mahathir’s Malaysia, Park Chung-hee’s South Korea, and Chiang Kai-shek’s Taiwan. Authoritarian China’s phenomenal growth since the early 1990s has also provided credence to the thesis. Thus, temptations to authoritarianism can also be seen in other developing Asian and African countries. However, it is argued that democratic growth is more stable and more resilient to crises. AK Sen argued that it is wrong to ask whether a country is fit for democracy; rather a country becomes fit through democracy. Entering the second half of the third decade of its current democratic experience, Indonesia will have to decide whether to stay with the path of democratic growth or returning to an authoritarian path.
Copyright ANU Indonesia Project 2024