Aptera to deliver 5000 vehicles in 2025?

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[@apterasolar]

Thanks Steve for breaking down all these details and discussing them. Great job. We're releasing an interview with Elaphe's CEO end of next week that should shed some light on the partnership Elaphe Propulsion Technologies Aptera Motors.

[@mrst89]

Can't wait for it 👍

[@christopherbarrett9749]

Equal partners? Merger? Aptera has been so transparent however this mystery is a big one, and I am hoping that the capacity to build motors in wheel motors. Steve, the validation needs to happen for the capital requirements to be fulfilled. Crash testing maybe the most important one, despite the regulations not requiring it. If I can tell an investor, yup, it got a 5 star crash rating, the money will flow easier. So the suspension is very important, but, the crash testing is most important. Nice to have an EPA rating of 330 MPGe but people would really understand that, maybe someone who drives a Prius might say "what?" Happy to drive my Prius and get 55 MPG, but 330! My hope say next June / July will be when you get number 32. Mine should be about three or four days after yours is ready. At best it's early next summer, but that would mean nothing found in validation that is a curve ball. They have had extra time getting ready to make this vehicle, making it robust, and fail proof is hard, but just maybe they can surprise us all!😊

[@johnmalcom9159]

That i good, BUT, I want to hear it from Aptera as an official position along with the assessed impacts on plans and budgets

[@patriot1229]

I think they’re going to announce the creation of a motor manufacturing facility in California.

[@christopherbarrett9749]

@@patriot1229 I love that idea, a vertical integration with the in-wheel motor, ultimately lowering the cost, raising the profit. Elaphe might be smart to be a partner in order to place the product out there. No Lightyear, no Endurance from Lordstown, Elaphe needs Aptera to succeed and prove the product.

[@stix2you]

Great info and analysis as usual Steve. Very balanced. I'm sensing the drag of constantly creating content may be taking its toll on you. I want you to know how much you are appreciated and are a central part of this community. Thanks for everything you do, it can't be stated enough.

[@Fairburne69]

I second this. I follow and enjoy a few Aptera channels but this one is certainly my favorite.

[@JoeBManco]

Well said, and your comment should be pinned.

[@JayGrant-hi5ms]

Naysayers aren’t going to like this…but consider an IWM switch because a major performance spec or even two are *better* than the previous bespoke Elaphe. Lots of positive potential reasons for a switch.

[@NYCCEJ]

I really want to hear about the in-wheel motor partnership - this is a very important component for @apteramotors

[@Fairburne69]

Me too.

[@e-economy-]

@@Fairburne69 @NYCCEJ Wait until end of next week when we will release an interview with the CEO of Elaphe in our @apterasolar channel (European Home for Aptera Fans, Investors and (future) Owners).

[@harrymcintosh2940]

If you oversimplify it, the car is a battery connected to a motor. We know where the battery is coming from, but suddenly the supplier for the other main component-the motor-is a big secret? That makes me very nervous.

[@BryanDoesCinema]

After last nights accelerator meeting I think Elaphe is respected and their work is appreciated but definitely out. If CPC doesn’t want them it’s not happening.

[@mrst89]

They don't talk about motors anymore, only about the powertrain - and it's marked as folly sourced on their slides. Which leads me to suspect that there won't be any hub motors but a more traditional solution. Why else would they mark it as fully sourced but don't announce what motor they are using?

[@unclegeorge7845]

Thanks' for the update Steve. I'm far more concerned about the first 400. I turn 81 in 2025. That's kinda old for a road trip up the coast to Seattle. I hope to swing by cousin Norms for his 95th birthday. Go team!

[@williamread8186]

CA said that he expected financing from US Capital should happen within weeks not months for what that is worth. I also believe that the survival of the company is highly dependent on getting production started in 2025. It seems likely that $25k EVs will start to become widely available by 2026 and this will make the Apteta a hard sell possibly.

[@JayGrant-hi5ms]

Steve-for the pool…I’m gonna guess tax day 2025 first delivery. I’m hoping to have mine by Summer Solstice. Money has a way of keeping things moving. I think they’ll get what they need for funding and the presented schedule will mostly hold.

[@stevelane5023]

Quite a few negative comments posted. Might as well throw in my two cents. I reserved later because of being skeptical after my bad decision to throw away money towards Elio motors. I am content on waiting for my Aptera. My refundable deposit is minimal.

[@richardryley3660]

There is nothing wrong with being patient. I'm not planning on buying a car for quite a few years myself. I'm just enjoying watching it come together for others.

[@gr8dvd]

I’ve told friends & family I just "bought" a replacement for my (low mileage) 2003 Mazda 6 for $70…. they know I’m frugal but that obviously prompt some questions.

[@dondaniels127]

I think first delivery to a customer will be around June, 2025

[@MadScience45]

They have stated that they've already secured manufacturing and licensing rights for the motor. They have stated that sourcing is complete. They have stated that they are not manufacturing the motor. So, by process of deduction, some undisclosed supplier is manufacturing the motor designed by Elaphe. That manufacturer could be anywhere in the world, established company, startup, partnership, or subsidiary. We'll just have to wait until they announce the details.

[@schultp]

Steve, thanks for talking about the absence of Elaphe from their supplier listing. But on the supply chain and parts supplier slide the bar graph for the powertrain shows the component as having the parts supply chain as 100% completed... so something is nailed down for the hub motors we just need to hear the details.

[@MaxSUNAAptera]

Having retired as a manufacturing equipment tech, I was knee deep involved in Lean 6 Sigma, TPM, and SMED. Having a mindset of continuing improvement, a company finds new ways to make/build things better every time an issue comes up when validating a process. Just building the crash and testing vehicles, they will fine tune and smooth out their process.

[@Kianquenseda]

Let's do it !

[@thecuriousquest]

I'm poised to pick mine up! I'll Uber ride my bike up to Carlsbad as a ritual efficiency pickup! Plenty of room in the back for it! It'll be a triumphant day! When the launch and first orders are filled, it'll be just the beginning. Now is the time we all have to work harder than ever. Keep that solar mobility momentum going, and Aptera WILL be the benchmark! ❤️🌍🌎🌏☀️

[@deanmcmanis9398]

I am guessing that production will begin in April 2025. I think that the additional funding will enable Aptera to move forward faster, and on many fronts simultaneously.

[@louisjov]

I suspect after the first PI is built, building the rest will go a lot faster. You learn a lot building the first of anything, and if they have all the parts on hand, they might be able to build 1-3 all simultaneously

[@JayGrant-hi5ms]

Agreed. The internet is full of people who have never built or designed and built anything. Then it’s few who have made subsequent such items and actually understand completely what you just said. Building so many PI vehicles would not take long after the first few. Same will be true of the production ramp to 500/month.

[@ronaldclarkson1146]

Steve, you need to watch the end of the Munro video on battery module cooling. It may explain the change in strategy for Aptera's battery cooling.

[@lucianbakerii4047]

CTNS apparently sells a lot of battery packs for manufacturing robotics in Korea.

[@sxsignal]

I remember them stating the 1st PI was for wiring and other components they had to still test/fit/ID which was the best component (hence possibly needing to rework the harness) and the drivable one was PI2 or 3

[@shrimptopian3392]

The Binc is in carlsbad 8 weeks niw abd they did nothing with it, no parts, no wiring 🤔

[@tims8603]

@@shrimptopian3392 There you go again, stating things, that you don't know, as fact.

[@shrimptopian3392]

Oh they made much progress since April 1th when it arrived, but they just don't want to show people they are making progress, right, now i get it 👍👍

[@madmotorcyclist]

@@shrimptopian3392 Do you get as much view into manufacturing from major automakers when they make a new model? Of course not. Show me any other auto manufacturer that gives this much visibility.

[@shrimptopian3392]

I don't see transparency, i see a lot of opaque

[@tskogen6905]

I would bet on April 1.

[@LanderMaybe]

How much?

[@LiveLoveLyle]

Let’s go Aptera!!

[@DemaGeek]

I am much more optimistic, thinking that Aptera will hit the production start goal, or very close to it!

[@Fairburne69]

I hope your right.

[@noelhwang9359]

Right there with you - Cautiously Optimistic! 🤞🤞🤞

[@DemaGeek]

@@Fairburne69 Me too!

[@DemaGeek]

@@noelhwang9359 I am cautious too, but I would much rather focus on the positive. There is much too much negativity in life already!

[@artsmith103]

When is that?

[@MistSoalar]

T+9 month and we don't know how close the T is. My optimistic bet is first delivery on August 2025

[@Crabbytwo1]

Certainly Damn hope so!!

[@charllectric4842]

9 months of testing and validation seems doable. However, based on previous conversations I've had with the team and taking into account lines take time to build and synchronize I'd say if we are able to manufacture 1,000 units by end of 2025 we'll be on a really good track. Now, the issue is the three models Tesla is waiting to unveil, rumor has it they plan on starting deliveries of the sub 30k Model 2 (aka Q) by late 2026 so the next 18 months are a "make it or break it" period for Aptera. Nail bitting.

[@GNiessen]

They may be renegotiating with Elaphae. I hope this gets worked out soon.

[@ronnw8153]

I got to be honest man. I'm bummed. I put my deposit down May 2022. And I've been working overtime just to put a huge down payment. It is what it is.

[@artsmith103]

Before end of 2026 you'll be rich!

[@gr8dvd]

Totally understand. Personally impatient but optimistic… b/c I see real talent and commitment in Aptera principals/co-CEOs and team.

[@tims8603]

I would think, when they say first PI build, it will be driveable. I mean, they can't really push it around if they're going to show it. Maybe it'll be missing a few things.

[@johnmalcom9159]

By definition, the "PI" in this case, (Delta in auto industry nomenclature) must be what will be delivered to a customer with all production parts. Otherwise not a PI suitable for testing. Noting that Aptera does not have to test to auto standards but have committed to do so.

[@tims8603]

@@johnmalcom9159 I was referring to showing the vehicle to the public. They have already said that, for testing purposes, some of the vehicles might not be complete depending on what they are testing for.

[@richardryley3660]

I will not disagree with the basic concept, but Chris and Steve mentioned that they are planning to design the PI models in stages. So while PI1 may not have all applicable parts when it is first built, eventually it will be outfitted with any parts that weren't complete at that time. Of course, if the supply chain is this close to complete, there aren't a lot of parts left to finalize. They still have to be validated, but not finalized.

[@gr8dvd]

Then again if they’re pushing it around, it should perform well in crashes 😀

[@garykunz5305]

Could Elaphe be a supplier, but not a key partner? Not sure I would read too much into Elaphe not being listed as a key partner at this point.

[@BryanDoesCinema]

Last nights accelerator meeting pretty much confirms elaphe is out but was a great partner.

[@Fairburne69]

@@BryanDoesCinema Any info on the motors and who is producing them? Are the motors part of the powertrain or electromechanical?

[@artboymoy]

@@Fairburne69Would think Powertrain.

[@wingsounds13]

@@Fairburne69 it would be hard to be much more power train than the motors. Electromechanical would be things like fans, blowers, ventillation actuators, window regulators, door latches...

[@Fairburne69]

@@wingsounds13 Ok

[@yoobb]

My guess: First customer delivery before July 4, 2025. Production rate of 10,000/yr by end of 2025. Average rate of 5,000/yr over the second half of 2025. Result: 2500 customer deliveries in 2025, including all Accelerators, plus the next 500 in line.

[@Rich1Rodriguez]

My ‘guess’ is first financing tranche will close and funds wired to Aptera within 90 days. That’s why I’ve been pressing to get the investment bankers on board. It takes time to close the funding. Charge on!

[@LanderMaybe]

Sounds reasonable. Deal with US Capital gets inked sometime after June 30. Allow a couple months for lawyers to do their thing, structure the package, get SEC approval, present to potential funders… and, assuming they have already been greasing the wheels with potential investors, maybe we see some funds in September at the earliest. Also, assume something(s) don’t work in testing and validation. Allow time for redesign, re-tooling, re-manufacture, retesting. Maybe they find out it’s too loud and they have to go back and design a solution and get additional parts. Given T+9 months, Earliest possible production is July, 2025. December is realistic. 2026 is possible. Or they never get sufficient funding and have to sell to someone with deep enough pockets to make it happen.

[@JoeBManco]

A 90-day window would certainly fit in well with the completion of some of the PI vehicles.

[@artboymoy]

YOu do know that they can build and test an PI vehicle while building other ones to be tested don't you? They don't have to build them all first and then go to testing. And if they have all the parts to build them by hand, they should be able to probably build one in a day or two, because they are looking to build 40 a day when production starts. So IMO I don't feel it's the building the PIs and testing that will be holding up production but getting the robots and assembly line together that will. It sounds like their funding was just around the corner by this video. So I feel they are on track with delivering what they say. But you have that healthy skepticism and that's fine.

[@wingsounds13]

And that they can build and validate the production line while they are building and testing the Production Intent vehicles. Lots of things can be done in parallel... No reason that production cannot begin at several vehicles a day the moment that testing is complete (or even before).

[@JayGrant-hi5ms]

Thank you for bringing some sanity to the comments today. Most people don’t understand how these tasks can (easily) run in parallel say on a Gantt chart.

[@lucianbakerii7562]

All projections into the future from well- intentioned honestly optimistic people are best case scenario. Chris and Steve must be optimistic and confident to get to this point. Yes, all previous projections have been off. This is not too surprising. We who are engaged in this beautiful vision of the future of mobility need to remain encouraging, but honest. Building a sustainable future for humanity on this planet will be a tremendous challenge and it's worth the effort.

[@rmigalla]

I'd put $10 on June of 2025.

[@speciesofspaces]

I definitely think there will be delays in validation and some technical fixes which they themselves have described but getting those resolved correctly and quickly the first time is a difficult challenge. So yes I have thought for some time that ramping up production will be a ways out and as was stated here it would be amazing to see any deliveries in late 2025 etc. Instead, I think limited CA deliveries as late as 2027 is quite possible even if 2026 is still productive for them. I would be absolutely astonished if any of those deliveries went beyond CA before then. Watching how slow some of these other small EV startups are to try and ramp up is one reason I say this but I also think any small EV company no matter how much they try to do volume early on is still going to take longer than most people think to hit its stride.

[@tskogen6905]

Steve do you think that Aptera would make available to you the second that the first customer car was completed? Start a pool with a price of $10.00 per guess take 5% for administration fee and let the closest guess apply the 95% toward the purchase of their Aptera. What do you think?

[@JayGrant-hi5ms]

Sounds illegal.

[@richardryley3660]

I don't think the chart indicates that production is intended to begin in the 2nd quarter of 2025. It doesn't say "Q2". It says "Q1". The chart could easily show a label for Q2 if one is intended, there is one for 2024. I think the position of the marker on the graph is intended to indicate that production will start at the END of Q1. So a March/April time frame. Now is this optimistic? Maybe. The plan was for production to begin nine months after funding was acquired, and nine months from now is close enough to March. But of course Aptera is depending on US Capital to raise funding, and we don't know how much they've managed to raise yet, or how steadily the funding will come in. Not having the money up front will certainly cause delays. So the schedule could slip into Q2. I'm not sure I'm worried about the PI builds, though. First of all, I assumed that there would be two PI builds, PI1 and PI2, and that does not seem to have happened. It seemed like a good idea to me to have one PI build for designing and putting together the interior, and a second build for designing abd testing the chassis. PI1 could be stationary and maybe powered by a temporary battery while they were making the wiring fit, while PI2 would have a bare bones interior just for a place to sit while driving it. But apparently the plan all along was to build the wiring and chassis together. If we haven't really needed a PI2 or PI3 yet, then we're just waiting on PI1 to be completed. And by "completed" I mean drivable with an interior and wheels. It will probably lack cooling at this point, as well as air conditioning, infotainment system and more than a rudimentary BMS, but that can all be added when it's ready. The question is, how quickly can they turn out PI builds once PI1 is done? Didn't somebody say that they can turn out one a day once the parts are available? Even if that's optimistic, with PI1 to the point where it is drivable, most of the most difficult work is done. Aptera may build the PIs in batches, ss they get the funding and parts to build several of them, and then build more a few months later. I don't mean to sound overly optimistic, but I think they can mange to build one PI model a month. Maybe I'm wrong, but we should start seeing progress on PI1 next month and close to completed the month after that. If we immediately see PI2 and PI3 and they start being demonstrated then that will pretty much confirm they can build more very quickly. I would start worrying if it's three months from now and PI1 is still in the shape it's in now.

[@artsmith103]

9 months after PI validation with funding to build out production. At the moment, there is no vehicle to produce. When there is after more funding there will be test validations. After those issues are resolved, with adequate funding, 9 months to create manufacturing facility per their recent comments.

[@richardryley3660]

@@artsmith103 Tooling can take place simultaneously with validation, as long as there are no changes that need to be made. If there are, the start of production will have to be delayed. But if not, production can begin just as soon as validation and testing is done.

[@artsmith103]

@@richardryley3660 I'm sure there are few extremely optimistic paths. But for a company that has never delivered any promises timely nor ever demonstrated any key marketing claims nor has adequate funding at the moment, a lot more caution is advised. I'm pretty sure what you call US Capital is really Capital Growth US. They mostly manage mutual funds for retail investors. They have a Private Equity division but they say it's closed to new investment. I don't understand how they are so big and do so little, maybe commenters will explain it. It's possible they haven't even started since their time hasn't started. Why do you think no VC, nor companies like Apple and Google, nor UAE have offered any interest? What if price, performance and production are not viable? Why hasn't Aptera ever demonstrated any of them? Why would intelligent investors participate in that environment? Look at the incompetence of most of the staff. What car company hires people like that?

[@artboymoy]

Funny. Just got an Aptera investor ad right before this video.

[@gr8dvd]

I’m getting them constantly to the point I’m concerned they’re burning cash for nothing. And I do mean constantly!

[@TheDapperham]

I bet I'll pick mine up in May, 2025.

[@LanderMaybe]

How much?

[@6or7breadsticks]

2025? Gosh that’s so many years away. Wait a min…

[@JayGrant-hi5ms]

*5,000 units produced* and sold in 2025, production *rate* at 500/month (equals 6k/year) by that time also. Powertrain at 100% People seem to be missing some of these points in the comments this week. Thanks for splitting up this series this week!

[@mrst89]

Powertrain at 100% but not announced which motors they plan on using - seems not the Elaphe motors anymore.

[@JayGrant-hi5ms]

I want this clarification too, but I see it as similar to not seeing EVE as a supplier and now having CTNS as a partner. People will calm down about any change after the details are out. It could be an ‘off the shelf’ motor from Elaphe or from someone else and perhaps still a custom spec. They’ve clarified on discord that it doesn’t impact their proposed schedule. Good enough info for me right now. Hoping it’s clarified before 6/30, though.

[@wingsounds13]

@@mrst89 I do wonder why people are so fixated on Elaphe. If they have motors speced and ordered, does it matter who is supplying them? If they have ordered them, then they must fit Aptera's needs. Is it really important if it is or is not Elaphe?

[@mrst89]

@@wingsounds13 as long as it's not a too bad intermediary compromise which would effect my early vehicle, I fully agree. I've seen the custom motor in person, so I'm wondering why they firstly develop auch a nice thing, kept naming the partner for a long time and then told us now that they've stopped working with them two years ago! That's not the transparency I'm used to with Aptera.

[@wingsounds13]

@@mrst89 there's that assumption that if it is not Elaphe then it can NOT be as good. Sure, Elaphe developed a good motor, and worked with Aptera to optimize it for Aptera's operational parameters. There is no reason that another supplier cannot produce one as good or better. Also, it seems that Aptera has the right to the optimized motor that they developed with Elaphe, so maybe it is this design, just being manufactured by someone else. In the end, I trust that Aptera will _not_ install an inferior product in their pet project, and wonder why so many people seem to so deeply believe that they would. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

[@lazerathhome]

Can it drive up a Hill without over heating?

[@FromPovertyToProgress]

Given the lack of financing, a first production delivery date any early than Dec 2025 seems unlikely. If the financing comes through and no major problems come up in PI testing, then late 2025 delivery seems possible.

[@glike2]

Elaphe maybe breaks the cost plan so Aptera might be shopping around for a better price alternative. Just my hunch

[@glike2]

Elaphe being a sole source suppler with a part that is critical to the design gives them a huge price negotiation leverage

[@Carl_in_AZ]

@@glike2 There are three other fit-and-form hub suppliers.

[@LanderMaybe]

@@Carl_in_AZwhich are?

[@GNiessen]

I am guessing March of 2025. With 3500 produced by the end of the year.

[@Fairburne69]

Near the end December of 2025 would be my guess for the first Production vehicles. Merry Christmas/Happy Holidays for the luck few who get one before 2026. 3 things I want to see or get answers for. 1. Confirmation of the 60+ million dollar deal with US capitol. Signed with money in the bank. Announced during their next update and no later. 2. What the heck is going on with the motors? Who is making them? The more details we can get about the motors the better. 3. PI Builds being tested and driven at the end of August beginning of September. If I can put a green checkmark next to these 3 things I will be happy. If any of them get a red X I my concern will grow. The first 2 are most important. The third one happening a month later would only be a minor concern and a delay I would expect.

[@johnyoung376]

US Capital won’t even start until July. Chris A said in the May update that maybe they could deploy cash starting in September. Safe to assume Elaphe is not going to be supplying the motors. Where they are coming from or even if they are hub or not is a mystery. Aptera has a solution locked in so safe to say it will go forward and backwards. 1st PI build won’t be until late July or early August, testing and validation thereafter.

[@Fairburne69]

@@johnyoung376 During the webinar starting around 54:00 and going to about 54:40. Blake the VP of finance said, "We're very close to be able to announce the specific terms on that. So we look forward to that coming before the end of the month." This is the reason why I expect an announce on or before the next update and why I will be concerned if we don't get one. So I would agree with you when it comes to July. Which is only 17 days away. So if we get to mid July and still no word on the funding I'll be really concerned that something went wrong. If we don't get an update on the motors I will also assume something is wrong. Usually I think no news is good news but in this situation good news is usually shared and bad news is kept quiet. Good news = Hope Bad news = Panic No news = Speculation which can be good or bad. So good news is shared. Bad news if not shared becomes no news and prevents panic and becomes speculation. It's hard for me to imagine no news on the motors is actually good news not being shared. The same is true with a deal with US Capitol. No news means that the deal is still being worked on or worse yet fallen through. As far as the timeline goes I think they are being optimistic. I don't think its realistic. Things always go wrong that you can't predict. Which is why I think they won't start production until late 2025 or even early 2026. My guess is a few hundred vehicles in December 2025.

[@johnmalcom9159]

👍!!!

[@richardryley3660]

I'm pretty sure US Capital is not providing the funding up front. However, they may not need to provide it up front. The assumption we've been going on is that Aptera was planning to begin production six months after they received $65 million. However, we don't know if they needed that $65 million to start production, of if they needed to know they would HAVE the $65 million to start production. Production doesn't have to start all at once. CPC is probably the biggest outlay. They have to order huge presses for the CF SMC bodies, and probably will take the longest to get ready. Other suppliers can wait until they are closer to production. And Aptera still needs to do validation and crash testing. So they can't start production yet anyway. A year from now, if they don't have the promised $65 million then there will definitely be a problem. But they don't need it now.

[@bobhellman8676]

There is a clear thing to do, please read this first. The fundamental flaw in the Aptera program, as I've commented on over the past 18 months, is that the crowdfunders are not even at an entry level of product development and manufacturing skill level. "They do not not know what they do not know" as Steve phrased it on an earlier video. The way it's done: In '22, the Gamma should have been followed by 1-3 test mules which represented their best/first SYSTEM, and been in constant development/evolution since then. This experience is irreplaceable. At the same time, the search and qualification of suitable vendors should have begun. The vendor base getting developed right alongside the product. At the end of '22, the long lead BinC should have been released safe in the knowledge that you have all of the system/other parts at the same level. While the BinC is taking its year all other (long lead) parts are alongside of it, and later, based on leadtimes, lesser parts get released. When they got to 1st quarter '24, get this, they would have a package of components that were the product of extensive test internally, as well as extensive vendor test. Then you assemble the PI's and test with those. You saw the PI schedule (projected in November) to have PI.1-3 completed "in the first few months of next year". It did not happen because of shortage of funds. It did not happen because the "extreme team" as in seasoned design and manufacturing engineers that have done programs over and over like this and KNOW this, LIVE this, WIN at this, are nowhere to be found. Still. Thank you for reading this far. What do you do? Where's the program? On the whole transparency thing, you DO NOT speculate and wait to be fed whatever they choose to tell you. What you do is get Steve or Drew or one of your other homies into Aptera and demand this: - Show us every part you have on hand to build PI.1-3. - Tell us when you expect every significant part to be on site. - Tell us which parts are off tools, which are prototypes. - Tell us what your concerns are in moving forward to complete the first 3 PI's. - Show us a dated milestone chart reflecting the content, testing to be performed for each PI. Start and duration. - We would like to meet your core manufacturing team and understand what qualifies them to put this product into production, ramp it up, and maintain a schedule. Transparency? Then you get your answers. There are more questions of course, but you need to get these answers. Especially if you think you might want to invest. Please feel free to critique or question anything in this comment.

[@gr8dvd]

Part of the dilemma (& delay) is having the PI build be largely made from production processes (tooling) that’s the same or very similar to final, full production. Arguably they could get very close to production versions with more manual fabrication and produce a small batch (3-5) PI units sooner…. and in turn, getting to testing/validation sooner. I don’t have ample relevant experience nor knowledge to suggest definitively just build it (manually) already. Tho if they don’t lock-in funds and vehicle is long delayed (or fails) it will give some grounds to say "told you so" 😀

[@bobhellman8676]

@gr8dvd ‘22-present lacked the testing of full system mules. ‘23-present lacked the co-development with vendors and any setup of the production facility. Without the preparation, you don’t get the results. In the context of “Pay me now or pay me later”, later is now. The last 2 years of “not doing it as it needs to be done” is showing up now. Unfortunately, they just never put themselves on the right track. I set out to buy one of these, despite the 88” width mistake (it should have been a global L5-e-compatible design) and I’ve been horrified at the “road not taken” over the past 18 months. I didn’t get into this for an “I told you so”, I’ve followed it hoping I was wrong and would learn something. But it’s been failing on the basics since ‘22.

[@gr8dvd]

@@bobhellman8676 First, "full system mule" is just different lingo for the build I suggested, correct? (Ie, hand-built where production parts aren’t currently available). Second, “I told you so" was 100% sarcasm as I’d rather see ROI rather than faux bragging rights. Third, re: failing perhaps semantics but it suggests ultimate demise. Whereas I see it as delay due to some decisions from entrepreneurs way smarter than me. They’re a lean startup and have obviously been pursuing monetizing their solar IP which is smart… faster revenue generator (less to build, less regulatory hurdles). Again, I’m giving them the benefit of the doubt for now.

[@bobhellman8676]

@@gr8dvd Exactly right on the "full system mule" equivalent term. It's the "when and why" part. The Gamma was a necessary vehicle for promotion and very well done. Tons of exposure they wouldn't have gotten without it. But there should have been 2 more "built to beat" at that point. Best variant of all key systems early '22. And a planned, serious, unrelenting effort to learn everything they possibly could from early '22 and dial it into the production release. And continued testing (wherein you can swap in vendor early variants as they they become available.). They would have, for example, found that the skin cooling was a weak solution and its manufacturability pulled the price point way beyond its value before they released the BinC. Why we care is that learning this early would have allowed for the optimization of the Delta for whatever the alternate is to the skin cooling. That thing is hard-tooled now. Without the freedom to change it now, they are stuck with whatever it is, late in the game, will fit it with minimal modification. Jury out. As another testament to lack of manufacturing expertise, was the callous statement by CA that "if a vendor comes along with a lower quote we'll just use those parts". Great for washers, but not for anything custom that's a key to your success. Vendors need to know that any development work they put into their products, is appreciated to the point that if they really support the customer, they earned their right to be a supplier. If they feel it's not a 2-way street, they lose their incentive. Trust and performance is everything. A manufacturer lives or dies by the quality of their vendors and relationships. In the case of a startup, who will likely offer a promise in lieu of a check to a vendor, the vendor will not go deep if they don't trust the customer's word. His word was, "If cheaper we'll go elsewhere." Kiss of death. So, short version, the PI's are now essentially "late in the game mules", which was totally avoidable had they understood the priority of the mules earlier. Ultra high risk. Thanks for having the conversation.

[@gr8dvd]

@@bobhellman8676 Appreciate the insights. Final thought, re:cheaper suppliers… always actions top words, seems they have good partner relations. Also CA was responding to question about vehicle pricing -competitiveness and said if parts are SIGNIFICANTLY cheaper. Will leave it there… thx again.

[@thomas_taylor]

My guess is that first customer delivery will be one year after they receive major funding. Presumably, that will be found by US Capital, but as you indicated, we don't know when that will be. All I have heard at this point is "after August".

[@artsmith103]

Optimistically, I think that means 2026.

[@TheWizardWhiteHawk]

Prius

[@johntrotter8678]

My order page was recently updated from "2025" delivery to "H1, 2025". Because of California location, Ambassador endorsement, and kind of early reservation date, I'm guessing my LE might be the 3,000th to 5,000th. Aptera changing my delivery seems to indicate they are more optimistic. We'll see.

[@michaelkruse1413]

Thanks to Steve for realistic videos unlike a couple others who seem to think Aptera will hit the streets this year! I trust you.

[@richardryley3660]

This year is definitely out of the question. 😂

[@artsmith103]

I think your estimate is hopefully realistic if there's funding. I'm going to be surprised if that goes well. Then PI testing. Then performance reality check. Then price reality check. Then production if the vehicle is economically viable. That's a lot of wishing and hoping for early 2026.

[@SET_EV_Guru]

Steve please confirm PI track and wheelbase dimensions?

[@richardryley3660]

The chassis design is supposedly complete, so we could request this information, but we couldn't confirm it until there is an actual metal chassis built. I am hoping they trimmed off another three inches. But it really depends on what the Air Shaper simulations said.

[@ThePsychodo]

Oh m I’d say 2025 is optimistic for 5 k cars. I’ll put a few bucks in a pool for fun though

[@isferfun3909]

Anyone knows who supply aptera tires, type of tires and sizing. I hope all tires are same sizes. Does Aptera ever consider accessibility for people with herniated disc or sciatica problems to buy their products? It looks like not so easy to get in or out for that group of people with low back problem. Also who made Aptera ABS brake system, rotors and brake pads?

[@andrewmclean1239]

Tyres are a pretty standard 195/60R16. All three of them.

[@NoOne-bj2kz]

7 years for a start up, womp womp

[@JoeBManco]

Chris spoke of putting 1-million miles of testing on the PI, how exactly are they going to do that along with other tests prior to a 2025 customer launch?

[@artboymoy]

They will have more than one PI. They take one and just put it on a testing rig that simulates driving. It doesn't need a person actually driving and can go 24/7 with someone probably having to charge the battery or maybe they just have it plugged in all the time. I don't know what they're looking for in that test. Maybe body structure, suspension, motors and battery compartment.

[@JoeBManco]

@@artboymoy Certainly there will be some sort of simulation rig like the machine that shakes the battery, but all tests take time. The longer it takes to build the PI vehicles, the less time they have prior to the customer vehicle launch. Then there is the lack of information on the hub motors. Last year it seemed like a lock that Elaphe is the hub motor supplier, but now that doesn't seem to be the case.

[@Lord_Mangoat]

I think they could easily build the required PI builds for testing, probably all within a single week, if not a day or two. If they are all identical and an example of what those who buy it will be getting, 10-15 should be easy for them to get done in a single day, if the production assembly runs smooth. Which I don't see why they wouldn't put the assembly to the test when building them. As for the actual tests, I have no idea how long that takes. I couldn't imagine it would take too long to see the results of, for example, a side impact. They smash it and see what happens to the crash test dummies. The only issue would be if any of those tests fail. If that happens, then it would delay production.

[@michaeldbouck]

I won't see mine until 2027 at the earliest (assuming Aptera gets that far).

[@maddeusdoggeus1]

Summer 2026

[@Alex-xt3de]

Hello! Whhhat about motors?! Without motors or in wheel motors vehicle is nothing (((

[@ddessert6]

Sadly, I think you might be right in your estimate for when we will see production vehicles in our driveway. If you watch Chris Anthony's body language, something is going on that is not being said verbally. The June Investor's meeting has generated more questions and doubt that it has answered or resolved. I really hope Aptera addresses this as quickly as today since they tend to do updates on Friday's. Two major topics that need to still be addressed with a possible third. Funding, Elaphe, battery packs. On the funding, Aptera has not said anything about a funding timeline. US Capital Global is not likely to cut a check for $65M in whole and as Chris has said, they are working with US Capital Global to raise the needed funds. If $20M is raised by July 1, 2025, what does that mean for the production timeline? If it takes 9 months to go into full production mode, they are going to need at least another $45M to get them to that point. The $65M will barely pay for the equipment and minimum supply purchases to go into full production mode. As far as Elaphe or the lack of mention of them is concerned, that is hugely concerning. Without hub motors the vehicle will not be produced. Aptera-Elaphe can have the hub motors made by a 3rd party and likely will but that has huge potential for more delays. Assume the 3rd party makes the hub motors 100% to the spec, they still will need testing. Battery packs. The video of the cells being welded looked interesting but again opened some significant questions. These videos should not be opening more questions than they are addressing. A battery pack is very likely to have 2916 cells. 40 packs a day results in 233,280 welds per day. Obviously multiple machines will be needed to accomplish this and those welders are not cheap. If they had 6 welders, that still requires the welds to take less than a second each. Perception is incredibly important and Aptera seems to have missed this with their last video. They definitely need to have a fully drive-able vehicle by the beginning of August. Aptera has not actually said that this will be the case and if there are issues with the hub motor supply and also the inverter (remember that they abandoned their effort to make a highly efficient inverter themselves and PMS.) I think it would be great if Steve were to go down to visit Aptera regardless of the PI build progress and sit down with Chris and Steve and clear the air. I want to see an Aptera in my driveway sooner than later. I'm down to 1 car now and am trying to find a way to hold out for another 18-24 months but there really needs to be some positive light at the end of the tunnel and not lots more questions than answers.

[@artsmith103]

I think it's shortage of funding with no more options.

[@Fairburne69]

I'm expecting September or even late October before we see fully functional PI builds. It's unrealistic in my opinion that they won't have delays that add up to months or even a year. It could easily be 2026 before we see production vehicles on the road. I hope they can do it quicker but I don't expect it and I don't think they need/have to do it quicker. But it sure would be awesome if they did.

[@ddessert6]

@@Fairburne69 My hope for a functional PI build by early August is not really for my desire to have my vehicle any sooner. It comes realizing they are really running low on funds. US Capital Global is basically a weak promise for funds and that money will not come all at once. If a functional PI build is on the street in early August, this will show investors that they are going to do whatever they can to stick to the schedule they set and that the vehicle is more than just a concept. Will the PI build need some upgrades? Sure, but those upgrades should be minor or fully expected like the skin cooling and heat pump. Those items are at least a year out which I think is very unfortunate but is what it is. One of the best ways to raise money is to have a functional vehicle and to have met their timeline.

[@Fairburne69]

@@ddessert6 " If a functional PI build is on the street in early August, this will show investors that they are going to do whatever they can to stick to the schedule they set and that the vehicle is more than just a concept." I wanted to start off by agreeing with you. If they can stick to their schedule or better yet move faster that would be HUGE. I'm not sure your point can be overstated. Aptera Success or failure may even depend on it. On the other hand I don't think that is a realistic possibility. I can almost guarantee that they will face problems over the next few months that will cause delays out of their control. Which is one of the problems when you rely on other companies for parts. So if the PI build is finished in early October instead of August I still believe that moment will be huge for the company. But the sooner the better. The fewer delays the better. If they want to instill confidence in their investors, meeting deadlines would go a long way towards that goal and may even bring in more investment money. Hopefully we continue to get good news. I'd love to see more videos like the three minute video about the batteries. By this time next month I'd love to see a PI Aptera well on its way to being built. I'm not sure but at this time I don't think they have started building a PI model as they wait for more parts. In my opinion it feels like the chassis/frame is the biggest hold up. I've also been concerned with the motors. But Aptera did say they have an update coming on that very soon. In the end with all our words, "They just need to get the PI builds built as soon as humanly possible." And I think we can both agree on that.

[@ddessert6]

@@Fairburne69 Oh I realize that there will likely be delays. I have been down this road myself. If they don't get some financial infusion soon, I don't see how they can keep the lights on. The Accelerator money of going fast. Their burn rate will be approaching $5M/month if they are not already there. Something needs to really show investors that it is worth investing in Aptera. The battery video was interesting and kinda cool to see but if they are intending to product a vehicle every 12 minutes, they need to product a complete battery pack every 12 minutes. If my calculations re correct based on what Chris A has said, I am figuring that there are 2916 cells. That means with a single welder that each weld needs to be completed in 0.1s. Obviously multiple welders should be used but those units are pricey. I too can't wait until Friday's news about the hub motors. In my view this is not something that should have been left out of the investor's meeting. Speculation is a really bad thing for Aptera. Omitting the hub motors was a mistake like the off-camera/mic questions that we could not really hear. Aptera could have just said we have some exciting upcoming news around our hub motors that will be released in the next few weeks. Actually having information on both the hub motors and the inverters would be great as there was a change in the inverter for the LE.

[@garywozniak7742]

The years keep ticking by.

[@Skylancer727]

Yeah I will say they should be a bit more honest on their timelines. You can only string people along so long. At some point you have to tell us your not ready instead of constantly making goals and pushing them off.

[@LanderMaybe]

And it keeps getting hotter! 😥

[@babaluto]

I wouldn't bet against you on that Steve.

[@arvana]

Not only will the testing and validation take time, but the whole point of doing it is to uncover design flaws that will then need to be redesigned, remanufactured, and retested. That is not a quick process. On the other hand, building a number of PI builds won't take a lot longer than the first one, since getting all the PI parts there is the bottleneck. Likely they'll order test batches of 20-30 of each part, and once they're in-house the assembly should be pretty quick.

[@ResidentNetizen]

Of course, the hope is that the virtual analysis ends up correlating closely with real testing. If that comes true, there will be little to redesign.

[@JoeBManco]

Speaking from a machine shop perspective, small batches cost so much more due to set-up time.

[@LanderMaybe]

@@JoeBMancowhich is part of why they are using as many off the shelf products as possible.

[@JoeBManco]

@@LanderMaybe Absolutely, as they should. There is no reason to reinvent everything.

[@richardryley3660]

Aptera is definitely counting on their simulations to be correct. If there was a miscalculation, the impact on the schedule would probably be a disaster. Fortunately, simulation technology is not a new technology and has been in use on the industry for decades now. You still need to perform validation to confirm that the model was correct, but you usually don't have to change your design after testing it.

[@NorCalSkeptics]

My guess: 1st production delivery on August 1, 2025.

[@examinerian]

Hmm, I'm never getting mine, am I...? EU/UK RHD version? Reservation 42,000 or so in the queue, whatever that may end up being after all the push-backs and jump-forwards with priority for new-market special editions, etc... There are folk out there with many referrals (I'm not one of them, with zero, despite going to shows and banging the SEV drum for a couple of years now). If this goes on for much longer, their referrals will never be realised as purchases, and they won't get their discounts. I've been saying that my current car will be replaced by my Aptera, but I'm already having to deal with spares availability (it's now 18yrs old), so if it ends up that my order slips to 2027/8, or never if EU/UK can't be sorted, then I can't in all honesty delay getting an EV. Money's not infinite - if that happens, who knows if I'll have enough to buy my Aptera when they come knocking to say it's ready...

[@dennisswaney644]

Aptera is VERY experienced at kicking the can down the road! 😂

[@denisbessette7219]

Note that the power train is considered 100% ready in the schedule. That means what ever is going on with Elaphe the motors are ready for production. As for the schedule they have been overly optimistic in all schedules to date. Remember the PI builds were supposed to be out by the end of December then some time in March. When you are leading a new project like this you have to be highly optimistic to keep your self and the team energized. Remember work will expand to fill the time available. If you schedule for pessimism the work to get there will expand and you won't make the pessimistic schedule either. My best guess on schedule is add 50% to the present schedule and then see where you are at this time next year then add 50% to that schedule. So expect about a 75% slip. Hopefully they are planning on getting money to a pessimistic schedule, not the optimistic one.

[@Skylancer727]

If they're still talking part suppliers, then Q1 2025 is a total pipe dream. I do think Aptera have done a bit of disservice with the over estimating when they'll be ready. You can only string people along so long, just be honest.

[@SteveBueche1027]

I wonder how much price gouging is going on still while using the Supply Issues as an excuse? I also thought the bell pan would be an issue when someone suggested the heat from the summer roads would effectively stop the cooling at a light or parked.

[@LanderMaybe]

I think the belly pan was dropped as another expensive custom solution.

[@richardryley3660]

I meant to say in response to the video that I don't know that it's true that the belly cooling was "dropped". It has definitely gone back to the drawing board. And they may abandon the idea of it turns out that it's too hard to make work. But I suspect that Aptera will be continuing to test the belly cooling to see if they can make it work. It is too important to the aerodynamics of the vehicle. I remember when I heard about the failure during the NBC demo, that I felt that the belly cooling system might need more testing than Aptera has done. From what I've seen of the patents it looks promising but it's also obvious that it's evolving over time. This is not going to be a quick process. This is just speculation and if it doesn't work it doesn't work. But I wouldn't call it fact that Aptera has dropped the belly cooling either, not unless I hear it from Chris or Steve themselves.

[@larrye6778]

anybody find it odd timing that Aptera will have a rolling pi build at the end of july and early august, also when tesla reveals there 3 wheel robotaxi on aug. 8th.🤔

[@macrichardson7904]

There has been no information about how these are going to be shipped to owners across the country. I'm sure we are $$$$ paying for it.........

[@fotoguru222]

Early on they said the estimated price included shipping anywhere in the continental USA. Of course that price is subject to change. 🤔

[@JayGrant-hi5ms]

First ones are FOB Aptera loading dock. You either pick it up or pay to freight it. Delivery standard options will come later.

[@fotoguru222]

@@JayGrant-hi5ms That's true only for those first 2000 or so Accelerator sales, the ones that invested over $10K in Aptera to get to the head of the line.

[@richardryley3660]

If you're concerned about shipping I would wait until Aptera has been in production for a number of years and is able to open local centers that are able to facilitate delivery.

[@JoeBManco]

I'm not worried about shipping. It would be awesome to take a flight to San Diego and drive the vehicle home.

[@TopwizSoft]

A single shift making 40 a day would require 25 weeks to make 5,000 cars. If they started mid-May and took a month or so to ramp up to full speed, it could be done.

[@JayGrant-hi5ms]

They aren’t targeting 40/day in 2025. The $65MM is for up to 24/day.

[@TopwizSoft]

@JayGrant-hi5ms They would have to start by March 15th to make 5,000 at that rate.

[@richardryley3660]

I expect them to ramp up as quickly as financially feasible.

[@JayGrant-hi5ms]

@TopwizSoft Yeah, nobody here realizing that the proposed schedule is likely ‘padded’ or conservative and that the actual plan is to beat all the presented milestones.

[@michaelkruse1413]

Very overly optimistic timeline! My LE date says first half of 25. I’m not an accelerator nor investor, live about 400 miles from Carlsbad and am an ambassador. Still lots of hurdles to jump but I would say 3/4 of the way around the track!

[@davidmarlow194]

Going to be hard to drive W/O motors.

[@charliebrockway166]

Aptera needs to give us some info on Elaphe and the motors. Elaphe said in an interview after Lordstown failure that first commercial motors would come in 5 to 6 years. At this point, Aptera is on track to be the most efficient soapbox derby vehicle. This marks a black day in the transparency promised.

[@randylewis4242]

No retail sold units in 2025 - except perhaps a handful of symbolic, partially featured units at the very end.

[@user-xj5xp6qz5g]

[@russellpilot1875]

First delivery to someone not employed by Aptera... March 2026

[@montanaerdoc]

Doubts are growing about Aptera. 1] Three of the last last four AOC titles have ended with a question mark. 2] Chris Anthony body language. Persistent hand wringing during presentation and recent weight gain. 3] Increased use of "The old person's pause" on these boards. Namely the three dots ... to indicate trepidation. A sure sign the author is over 60 years old and doubtful.

[@bobhellman8676]

@montanaerdoc Picture CA comfortably sitting in his Titanic state room hearing a loud noise. 1,000's of hours of development and manufacturing work not properly done are the iceberg.

[@andromedach]

At least I will agree with you on one thing, they aren't going to have 5k out by 2025, they will be lucky to have one. They cannot even get one thrown together PI before the end of August at the rate they are going and they are supposed to have three of these???? One for Steve, Chris, and Jason :) - just kidding. They don't have the funds for the PI builds beyond the one they have the body for and they have given no indication where the second and third bodies are. Ask them Steve, press them on this. What is going on with #2 and #3. Are they too going to have frames, suspension, and more, installed in California or will they be PI build as promised which means that part is done in Italy. We know the frame is being custom made for the first PI - so scratch that being Production Intent. They just showed off the being built battery pans. Did they ever pay the 500k for the steering wheel? - Remember Chris claiming it would cost that much! We will not see a production vehicle in 2025. Because Aptera told us there would be at least ten we can easily track progress so here is my bet - there will never be even ten PI builds.

[@richardryley3660]

They have had the funding for the PI builds since last year. US Capital is only raising the funding for production, that is all. They've only been working on PI1 since April. And this video is from June 5. Wait until next month before you conclude nothing is being done. Also it was only speculation that CPC would build the frame. It looks like Costamp is responsible for that.

[@andromedach]

I do not believe for a moment that they are ninety seven percent sourced. Given how much of the initial PI build is being made very ad hoc - we now know even the battery pans are being hand made so they are certainly not production intent parts. Calling any of these first three Production Intent is just another lie. Something big happened with their hub motors to the point they won't even state they still will use a hub motor configuration.

[@richardryley3660]

Please provide a link to your source stating that the battery packs are being made "by hand". Assuming that the manufacturer is Flux Power, they produce their battery packs with the same robotics CTNS or any other company uses. Aptera wants to produce the batteries in house, but there is no issue with hiring another company to provide the first few packs while they tool up for production. The whole point of production intent is that the parts are identical to production.

[@JoeBManco]

Aptera has a video out today that is about their battery pack. My assumption is it is an actual production intent battery pack. It didn't look hand built to me. Especially the clip showing the laser-robot welding the connecting silver strips.

[@richardryley3660]

@@JoeBManco I just watched that video. Tim Vaughn specifically said that only the very earliest PI battery packs will be made "by hand". That would suggest that Flux Power is not involved, although they could be for later models. Remember also the CTNS was supposed to provide 200 batteries. PI1 is not the entire PI run, however, and it would take too long to make all of those packs by hand. I suspect they aren't being welded by hand either. This is just temporary to get PI1 completed. Edit: I'm also a little unsure if Tim putting the "caulk" under the batteries wasn't a dramatization. 🤣

[@TheWizardWhiteHawk]

Better be better than honda insight. They rushed it out to beat prison and it wasn't ready. Mine sucked ....

[@shrimptopian3392]

The last 2 months seem like a crash in slow motion at aptera. Desperate move after desperate move, starting with the whole UAE thing. The coming 3 to 6 months are going to be crucial, they have to get much much money, and they have to really really prove that what they say is true, build the 10 pi at least, show the solar working and how many miles can be driven from the solar To be honest, no, not gonna happen. A shame because the concept is nice, maybe a Chinese company will make one

[@Fairburne69]

I'm not ready to say its hopeless yet. With each update they seem to be moving closer to production. The problem seems to be that even snails are passing them on the highway. They need money and they need to speed things up. If they can't then you are probably correct. They need to announce a deal with US capitol that is complete when they release the next update. 60 Million in the bank and ready to move forward. Then they need to get a handful of 3 to 6 PI builds finished. Crash testing and real life testing needs to start by September. They are at a make it or break it point. Any major delays at this point could sink the company.

[@JoeBManco]

The rest of this year is going to determine the success or failure of Aptera. The concept is solid, it has a wow factor, but I wonder if Chris and Steve are the right people (or have the right people) to get it done. It is very frustrating they have yet to say what is going on with the hub motors.

[@gbpg2016]

@@JoeBMancothey’re salesmen so you’ll only get what they want us to hear. And it may be once the investment closes for retail to get as much as possible until then. If it’s good news then why wait?

[@JoeBManco]

@@gbpg2016 You make a good point. The lack of talking about Elaphe in the webinar is keeping me from investing in Aptera. Maybe I am being too negative, but to leave out saying something about the motors in a vehicle is suspicious.

[@richardryley3660]

Well, the fortunate thing is that you will be able to tell within a few months if you are being overly pessimistic. Especially if there is an announcement about Elaphe.