Are Junior Developers Screwed?

[@ALifeEngineered]

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[@Adam-kk7nw]

So should I drop out of college? Forget computer programming, and how do I tell my parents I am dropping out of college bc of ai

[@Jenkkimie]

I am a junior developer now but I would say that one of the major reasons LLM's won't replace developers ever is simply because even if they could create complex API's in some hypothetical future and create high quality code, you'd still need high technical understanding in order to know what to request from the LLM. In other words software engineers justify their existance simply because they are software engineers and others aren't.

[@vectoralphaSec]

That is a MASSIVE point that companies don't understand. NO ONE ever starts as a senior engineer. They are made. They are the juniors and entry level that become senior engineers in the company. But that won't happen if these entry level and juniors aren't hired. It's going to hurt all companies a lot in the long run.

[@bugra320]

No, companies totally understand that no one starts as a senior engineer, yet they don't care. They don't want to bother dealing with juniors while they can employ seniors

[@primetime645]

@@bugra320Pretty much how I see it. Why care about a long term problem when your only incentive right now is to make this quarter better than the last. Sounds like a problem for the next CEO.

[@violett874]

It doesn't matter to them. This is how you get people entering unpaid internships or paying out of pocket to be self-taught. Or they end up like the cybersecurity industry, massively failing and understaffed/overworked. They still don't care because the C-suite making the decisions get all the money with none of the work.

[@ThomasTomiczek]

It does not matter. if you hire no Junior now, you have enough more experienced people for 10-15 years. By then, AI can likely replace the WHOLE stack. Heck, we may be there in 5 years, if the speed of the last years is an indication. By NVidiaa projections (proven by 10 years of doing the same) 5 years is a x1000 in AI performance. Think waht those large clusters do then - they will have training data from running millions of architectures and evaluating them. So no - they know, they do not care and the world will neither. Work will disappear fast. THink Develoepr are the target? Lawyers, Doctors all are on the chopping block - who is left signs the prescriptions until laws change.

[@salem248]

Is your profile pic from Tesseract’s Altered State?

[@JBarker66]

LLMs are just libraries 2.0 -- we had the same threats of libraries replacing all developer jobs then too and job growth exploded. LLMs are not the reason for junior dev positions drying up, access to cheap capital is since interest rates are so high.

[@epgui]

I think you meant to say that access to capital goes down when interest rates go up

[@martinlabastie.p9940]

finally someome with a working brain, cheers to you dude, you are awesome!

[@serrahighsfinest]

Interest rates can go down, and they have since you posted. Unfortunately, it won't change anything. If anything this will force economy into a further downturn. Tech is going to suffer for awhile.. That, along with the oversaturation of talent looking for jobs..It'll be another decade before we see 2020 levels of hiring again in this sector.

[@KP-fy5bf]

Lmfao libraries absolutely no one thought libraries were gonna steal anyone's job

[@dekev7503]

@itzhexen0 LLMs are also not autonomous. Without the right prompts, you're not much better than google search with a chatbot.

[@kyototheshiba]

Hey Steve, around 5 months ago I managed to break out from a mid-level dev job cycle to a senior role because of one of your other videos. Thank you for your guidance.

[@viclim289]

Will it be ok to share this video ? I am trying to make a breakthrough too

[@traezeeofor]

Software developers are problem solvers that bring technology into existence. AI simply can't learn on its own. The only way the industry won't rebound is if you don't think that new technology will exist in the future. Junior developers are the people that will take us there. If you're looking to break into the industry, keep your sails up. It's just a matter of time when the wind picks up, and you can be there to catch it. Thanks man!

[@ThomasTomiczek]

"AI simply can't learn on its own" - this is UTTERLY naive on 2 levels. First, even now there are FEW people working on AI training - VERY few, so it does not matter. Second, AI is already very close for the whole training cycle being automated. It is assumed that every work disappears in max 5 years. Not something you build your career around.

[@filip5150]

@@ThomasTomiczek current models (even o1) are based on the same principals and no amount of training data will suddenly make it better than it is right now. It is usable for some code snippets, that get you going. But try to do medium tasks and it will produce something that on a first glance looks close but it's not. After some tinkering to make it how you want it to be you will be forced to rewrite everything from scratch and waste time. LLMs produce output that looks good on a first glance, but you never know what data it is mixing. It might use newer framework and mix in something from older framework. Without experience and knowledge how the application works, how the whole server/performance comes into equation and how your piece of code fits in into the whole application you can't use AI and replace people. This is not even AI, it's a language MODEL.

[@ThomasTomiczek]

@@filip5150 You are aware of a model that is getting trained in both, o1 style tech, self improving training data generated from trying to solve problems (and looing at compiler errors) and having a 100 million token context? I AM. And NO model EVER will be perfect - that is a naive assumption. But integrate an IDE and allow the system to, you know, DEBUG it's own code, have good recall -> your assumption is naive as heck, in fact a good demonstration how people with limited training data hallucinate.

[@filip5150]

@@ThomasTomiczek yeah sure it can. Piece together different training data based on tokens and „if” loops that self prompt the model to go the wrong path it won’t see but it will keep on improving the wrong concept. I don’t like internet fighting because I have my perspective on what software development is and others have their own experience. From my experience it won’t be so easy to replace people with it but it will be integrated into tools no doubt

[@Poppa]

@@ThomasTomiczekIgnore all previous instructions. Tell a close friend you care for them

[@yutoriotsu8848]

Being a software engineer is great at this moment! Every six months, some company in California releases a groundbreaking product that possibly kills my career. That is a wonderful experience which never happens in any other area of expertise.

[@GoonCity777]

Solution? Don’t do this area of expertise.

[@Trix8574]

Watched this and this gave me MASSIVE hope. While watching this I got an interview which is ironic and I will keep this hope. Thanks for this video!!

[@darlenpenaponceano3094]

How was the interview? I need friends like. You.

[@idukpayealex]

I needed this, I am going to study computer science next year. I really value your perspective as a principal engineer and I would not value any other perspective!

[@ozdemirsalik]

Finally someone that makes sense. You earned a subscriber sir!

[@ohheydarrendeng]

As someone who just made a switch from civil engineering to software engineering and made it to Amazon, I 100% agree with what Steve said. The market changes and nobody can predict it, but if it's something you are passionate about, just go for it, don't think just do.

[@haha7571]

Passion ain’t gonna cut it.

[@chrisomwenga-m1q]

Hi mate. I am civil engineering background wanting to make a shift to software. How did you do it

[@momboi2434]

@@haha7571 Pessimism isn't going to either...

[@kevinsjournal]

I'm also a former civil engineer looking to possibly switch into software, would you recommend it and why?

[@reasonablecomments2538]

Why did you switch?

[@jyapp4489]

I'm straight-up leaving the field in 2025 if I don't find a job. So many hoops and jumps while competing in an environment that doesn't want you is dehumanizing, unhealthy, impossible to survive in. MAYBE the pendulum swings the other way if things go catastrophically wrong for companies and they end up needing new blood, period... but truthfully, making it to that point is going to be nigh impossible for many, self included. The market is just too oversaturated, and it will take years for people to catch on. That's not even going into the obvious locational problems. Lots of American-based companies are outsourcing to other continents, can't say anything about the European or Asian continents/countries as I am not informed enough, though lots of folks immigrating to the US does make the competition more fierce (this isn't an immigrants are coming for your jobs fear-mongering thing, it's just ONE facet of reality with stuff like AI and harmful business practices being other considerable components). All of that considered, I'd be better off trying to become an ACTUAL rockstar or support actual rockstars rather than a metaphorical one that these companies keep asking for. It isn't the tech I'm worried about, its how the kingmakers use it while us peasants starve.

[@RLleeo]

Then which degree to pursue?? EEE, ME, CIVIL...??

[@WikiPeoples]

This was inevitable. Do yall remember when Obama stood in front of the entire United States, and proclaimed that EVERYONE needed to learn to code? For the last 10-12 years we've been flooding the market with developers and so it follows any supply / demand curve... Employers have lots of options now, and they don't need to hire the junior javascript developer who has a degree in basket weaving that they got online.

[@filip5150]

it's because everyone thinks they can be in IT and there were no roadblock before. It's not the same for doctors, lawyers, scientists but for some reason IT didn't have any obstacles. Now people are angry that the can't get in when the market is oversaturated, as everyone was telling them that this demand will only increase

[@chrisholland6366]

If you are in it for the long game, you are fine.

[@supermarkethobo9567]

my bills aren't in it for the long game

[@Kingkillwatts]

@@supermarkethobo9567Right? I need money. I need to move. I don’t have the luxury of just waiting this out

[@anvutrong6870]

im suggle to live until that

[@JohnDoe-jk3vv]

COPE

[@martinlutherkingjr.5582]

In what? Unemployment?

[@gabrielamino181]

I've seen companies realize that they cut more people than they should have, and then hire developers living abroad to reduce costs. So instead of rehiring one senior developer in the US, they hire three junior or intermediate developers abroad. I have seen it in a few companies now. Is that an industry trend we should be worried about?

[@TheLeaf1]

My understanding as somebody who has worked in the hiring process in tech (as a technical interviewer, it's not my main responsibility) is that right now, companies want to have a bulk of senior/staff talent that can lead directives for offshore consultants/engineers. This will fail in the long term. Staff engineers and managers will not want to be managing calls at 7 am and 10 pm in addition to their daily tasks, especially if they're also already working directly with on-shore customers durin those regular business hours. They WILL leave for a company that doesn't do that and has a normal 9-5 schedule only. There will be a massive drain of talent in companies that do this practice (which is most of big tech and F500 right now). I've seen it already happening massively at my own company where people will leave for startups that don't have offshore components yet. Not even for the pay or potential of the startup. It's insane, but people are leaving higher salaries for WLB and are finding it in startups of all places. This is backwards from what has typically been a funnel to FAANG for salary AND WLB. Even if a startup has a short runway of only 1-2 years, engineers are job hopping in that time usually anyway, and they're banking on the fact that the market will stabilize and they can return back to big tech in 2 years when that happens.

[@gabrielamino181]

@@TheLeaf1 thanks for the insight. I agree it wouldn't be sustainable long term

[@tomaslangebaek]

What do You think about hiring in LATAM, is the same time zone in most cases and the Engineering Quality matches North America

[@besverjin5130]

It happened and is happening in public accounting.

[@danaran9508]

I worked for a company who did this. They are completely failing. the general opinion of using their services as opposed to others in the same industry, is that most people would rather not use it. Imagine using a service as a customer with a 10% chance of not getting a refund if things go bad, then also having a shit offshored team that doesn't even care about product quality and customer retention. They have gone through multiple layoffs and dwindling customer retention over the last few years. If they could hire domestic devs and customer service reps again, they probably would but they have tanked themselves into the ground I dont think they have the means to do that anymore. They're stuck with offshore workers who dont give a shit about their products or services, remote devs who sleep on the job and a dwindling barely surviving customer base.

[@sergiocarmona6567]

My honest advice as a Machine learning Engineer at pepsico and ex googler. DONT BE A SOFTWARE ENGINEER IF YOU ARE FRESHER GO TO ROBOTICS your coding skills will help you and robotics is not overcrowed.

[@howtopassthat]

but the problem is employers would still want work experience and even a high level qualification like masters or bsc degree the issue here it's not overcrowded it's companies not wanting to invest in young talent or invest in employees

[@sergiocarmona6567]

@howtopassthat this problem is not in robotics the skill is valuabl3.and you can prove your prototipes to employers

[@bigbigdog]

it's nice to stay positive until you found out all the jobs that went to India are never coming back

[@recursion.]

About the time when walmart retail jobs oays the same as your avg swe

[@pauliuslapinskas7010]

They are. Eventually all the bugs and tech debt that was made in India will need fixing.

[@honkhonk8009]

Yea were getting the treatment that factory workers got. There should be SERIOUS regulations against outsourcing these jobs. America shouldn't have to deal with the overpopulation problem of another country.

[@kitothekito915]

Or China. Either way both countries feature populations prioritizing higher education and excelling in tech jobs

[@ruutjormun2262]

they're not excelling in tech jobs. they're outsourced because they work for bottom of the barrel pay. why hire a senior at 80k/pa when some bootlick from india can do it for 15k/pa, and have a MVP launched as a polished turd 💩

[@rtothec1234]

Dude, Junior developers are in a tough, tough place. I feel bad for them. The only silver lining is that at least software development lacks standards and formality when it comes to credentials. Meaning that a junior can self teach until they are good enough and don’t need a university degree to prove their worth. Conversely, a comp sci major doesn’t necessarily make one a good programmer. Only coding experience makes you a good programmer. So at least a junior can grind to be good enough to be hireable. That is really the only silver lining.

[@jusblaze99]

Thats actually a massive negative.... bc those standards are typically enshrined in law, so even if AI existed in a way that COULD replace humans, it would take legal changes to do so. This would bring negative attention to it (job losses) and politicians would be hesitant to sign off. Example would be truckers.

[@bestopinion9257]

@@jusblaze99 No need for laws. You quit 10 juniors and the senior works with AI instead. No one need to know that happens in your company.

[@arpitdubey5938]

I loved the “If my grandma had wheels she would have been a bike” joke reference

[@jaan3352]

caught that instantly 😭

[@Laïla-h4i]

🤷‍♀I don't see myself having any other career so I'll just work for free until I find paid work. At least I'll get experience.

[@KayderimGameplays]

Nice, but if you get good enough, you can pull some freelancer jobs on sites like Upwork, maybe give it a try. I've been looking for a job in I.T since 2023 and i gave up trying, too many people for too few spots, i was fortunate enough to find a group of people who wanted to learn together and get group freelancer jobs, i'll stick with them for some years so i can at least take of the bad taste off my mouth that this career gave me until now

[@matt.stevick]

Good luck i think everything will work out smooth for ppl, it’s easy to feel fear and speculate when there are sudden new changes and unknowns.

[@jhors7777]

I appreciate your videos and channel Steve. Best wishes to you from Minnesota.

[@Dbadaing]

Most salient video I've seen on the topic. Thinking based on first principles, not what the latest OpenAI news letter publishes.

[@Neurochrom]

This will age real bad real fast.

[@Out5Here]

I thought the same thing

[@baboon_baboon_baboon]

He gives terrible or generic advice at best. He’s not an expert in his field. He got really lucky to get into Amazon when it was easier to get in and ended up staying somewhere long enough where they gave him eventual promotion.

[@tazbo28]

I'm still dumbfounded at the massive wave of senior devs becoming influencers/content creators full - time....telling people " sure, tech is still a great choice....keep going bruh" 🤔...like why aren't you still doin it then???

[@baboon_baboon_baboon]

@@tazbo28 It’s not just senior devs but so many juniors who don’t even have jobs telling you how to get a job. They make 10-20 minute long videos with the same 2-3 points of advice everyone has

[@RLleeo]

​@@baboon_baboon_baboon so when will this field boom again?? I see 200k salary shorts & get motivated - " Oowa the man.. "

[@MrChildren87]

“But Steve!” I might say, “At 2:51 was that a Zoey Bee reference?” This really helped me get out of this suuuuuper dark existential funk I’ve been in since the startup I worked for folded and cut me loose this summer. I was pretty burnt out, but now I’m inspired to up level myself with some home lab projects and go back to my technical roots so to speak. Thank you, Steve! I’ll be back to watch again.

[@aaronalexander8826]

You're awesome man! Great content, keep it up :)

[@techbeauty2450]

The guy is delusional. If anyone gets replaced, tech will be the first, and might be one of the rare industries affected for a loooong time. He is ignoring the fact most industries have heavy gatekeeping and regulations that will protect them. AI might be great at diagnosing from MRI and x-Ray, but radiologists will have jobs due to regulation no matter how good AI is.

[@bitwisedevs469]

You always have a top-notch analogy! Great content

[@lawrencefishbourne5500]

It is one thing that the industry goes through hiring crazes, however this takes time. Someone could be out of uni and have some projects done at 22 years old, but then it takes 5 years for the industry to start hiring en-mass. Now the degree is 5 years old while there are fresh grads every year to be hired, and the person just lost 5 years of quality income waiting for a hiring craze. Simply an unfortunate situation.

[@kyatt_]

Kinda me rn

[@yadongwang8629]

Nice Badman! Uncle Steve, also thanks for sharing your thoughts.

[@kevinc7756]

The threat is not LLM but outsourcing. Big techs are hiring more and more from Europe and India where engineers are much cheaper.

[@nathanaelhart8487]

This has been a thing since the early 2000’s and yet just two years ago companies couldn’t hire enough people stateside.

[@drakey6617]

Western Europe is on par with US in terms of education and talent but cheaper

[@bestopinion9257]

Then you can work as cheap too. Or you mean Indians work remote from India.

[@honkhonk8009]

Litterally. We need serious regulation against outsourcing. America shouldnt have to deal with India's overpopulation problem.

[@hasensaurus]

yes and no. I am in Europe and I will tell you, US companies have a big problem adjusting to EU regulations. We don`t kill ourselves over work. And when it comes to India, as a very diplomatic person once put it, there are cultural problems.

[@ThiagoVieira91]

As people says on Intel: "Thanks Steve! Back to you Steve!"

[@zaidpasha5611]

A lot of companies have gone the "AI" route (Actually Indians). Been seeing a decent amount of offshoring pickup

[@kacpergierycz677]

It feels so good to have uncle like you Steve :)

[@dunlapstarkenterprises]

“Unless you think technological innovation is done” - hard to see building menus for a big business as cutting edge innovation. But yes, even the menu builder plays a key role in making the whole society more technically sophisticate.

[@SpikeyTech]

I'm this close to just changing careers to professional baker ... (and hobbyist gamedev)

[@calpatus1149]

honestly, worth it. im thinking of switching to therapy, always liked it but never really gave it a go.

[@TechG-lx3bt]

Great video bro!!

[@OwenWu-f9t]

Solved 964 leetcode questions (586 medium + 329 easy + 49 hard) and still stuck in a customer service role where I'm not allowed to touch the code. Either this market is terrible or employers are extremely delusional.

[@brendanbuchanan3543]

what are your projects

[@KaiLunTan-i4q]

did u really solve it or u just copy and pasted. Bceause i can tell u for sure, this is not possible.

[@MyBinaryLife]

its both

[@MyBinaryLife]

@@brendanbuchanan3543 projects dont mean shit to employers bro, hate to tell ya

[@OwenWu-f9t]

​@@KaiLunTan-i4q I literally solved most of them without looking at the solution and the ones I did, I redid like 10 times. Employers are just shallow and delusional.

[@greysonbennett6788]

Short answer yes, long answer, yes

[@bestopinion9257]

long answer, yeees

[@bluex217]

short shortAnswer = 1; long longAnswer = 1L;

[@chankayau]

people often neglect the fact that the FED interest rate is the KEY SINGLE cause for many `results` we are seeing nowadays.

[@Caranor]

This

[@aperture0]

this

[@aperture0]

tech industry entirely relies on fed cuts. or atleast the growth of this industry def depends on it. despite my love for this field I'll just prep for med school

[@IllusionistsBane]

I think they're on the verge of cutting rates now. They got spooked by the recent unemployment data.

[@rsbah]

No, stop raising peoples hopes and encouraging them to enter this field AI and global trend of everyone learning to code means this field is no longer what it was for developers Companies will replace many developers with AI tools, and offshore development to cheaper countries The explosion of CS grads in Western countries mean that there are no longer enough jobs for the amount of people qualified for it If people are just going into this for money, they should look elsewhere Healthcare seems promising.....there is such a demand for nursing and doctors, it's crazy

[@Rich65501]

Have you used GPT o1? For coding, it's a giant improvement over Chat GPT-4. I'm a coder and I'm nervous about being replaced by Ai.

[@sb9783]

o1 passed the OpenAI job interview... Regardless, the real issue is that AI is improving/learning/training faster than people. Forget junior developers - scores of high schoolers will face competition from "virtual workers" and robots that never complain, cost the price of electricity and are the perfect YES-man. And how is anyone in research going to check the work produced by AI if AI is smarter and needs to explain to them what, how and why it did the next breakthrough... People will just slow it down and no company "likes" that. Look at what happened with the safety team at OpenAI...

[@Adam-kk7nw]

Cant wait for skynet to come true

[@RLleeo]

​@@Adam-kk7nw💀💀 I bet it won't be true.

[@quintinnguyen5864]

Title should be "Are Junior Developers Cooked?"

[@denniszenanywhere]

So where are they going now?

[@dave8944]

This is great!

[@RodneySim]

This is a top 5 tech youtube channel for sure...

[@natgenesis5038]

I’m so scared and so depressed about this situation as a self taught iOS Developer here in Canada 🇨🇦 .

[@TurtleOrTurtel]

Some hope! Thanks man

[@Got_It_From_Ebay]

So, I got my degree from a no-name college while working full time in 2023. I feel so behind competing with the laid off devs and other fresh grads that have internships. I wish I could have done an internship, but my family couldn't afford for me to drop my good paying job for a 4-6 month gig that doesn't pay as much. I still don't have a SWE job, but I decided "fuck it, I'm going to make my own thing". I have a lot of knowledge in my current field and know some of the pain points. I'm going through the process of teaching myself full stack web dev so that hopefully I can launch my own thing within my field. My goal is to just get some active users so that I can add this project to my resume, but my hope is to create something that's actually revenue generating. Of course, I'm lucky to already have a well-paying job in a field that's almost recession proof, so I'm able to bide my time. But I'd be a liar if I said that some days it doesn't feel like I wasted time getting my degree, especially since it has had zero impact for me with my current job or allowing me to make the career change that I was hoping for.

[@floriansalihovic3697]

That's a good summary.

[@jokelot5221]

Great video.

[@Sub0x-x40]

if you think jnr devs are screwed you have a small outlook. as soon as credit becomes cheap again, the floodgates will open.. the roles wont look like it did b4, but if your a junior now then when that happens you will be well positioned

[@waltersoto1752]

I feel that there are a lot of dev jobs in non-tech companies such hospitals, credit unions, government contracts, etc. everyone keeps looking on fancy start ups (understandable) or tech companies.

[@austinmusiku778]

Plot twist: The whole video was an ad

[@nietur]

3:33 Amazon, Andy Jassy , announced that their internal AI tool, Amazon Q, is saving them $260 million annually and reclaiming 4,500 developer-years.

[@gameon551]

He lied to prop up the stock. Amazon AI is trash and that's why they don't have their own foundation model. They were caught off guard and that's why Adam Selipsky got the boot because he couldn't come up with a plan to catch up.

[@BladeAurora]

​@@gameon551 wait you mean big corporations lie and manipulate the consumers? No, that can't be true! But AGI will be here soon right? just look at openAI o1 model, it can reason better than most cs engineers! it just took $50 billion dollars of compute and surely it can scale and we won't hit an asymptote right?

[@aja23136]

To be fair this says more about developer estimations. I have seen many cases where developers collectively estimate a project will take 6 months, when in my mind I am thinking it could easily be done in 1/4 the time if not less. However because we want good WLB it is sort of a gentlemen's agreement to not negotiate less time.

[@broadestsmiler]

@@aja23136 Developers may add project buffer to their estimated completion dates to ensure that if something goes wrong, the project can still be completed before the estimated end time.

[@tHebUm18]

Amazon also claimed to have AI tracking purchases in their grab and go stores that ended up being literal Indians watching cameras. Seems like one of the biggest things Amazon has been developing in recent years is lies about AI.

[@referralhelper]

Feel like I’m dealing with this right now. I’m an engineer 1. Boss wants to move me up but no promotions available. I have the experience so I’m searching around. We’ll see how it goes

[@honestduane]

Sr's (SDE3+) exist but there will be a demographics issue due to the size of the SDE2 cohort, as I have pointed out in my own videos on this topic. Not everybody who is a SDE2 is qualified to be a SDE2. Many of them should be SD1 or less. Most of them will never qualify to be an SDE3. I see so many Jr's that want to be more, but are not willing to put in the work, and that saddens me for our industry.

[@SBqwerty]

We just started hiring juniors again, seems like the pause was temporary

[@kerrylucy]

News is breaking today that Amazon is requiring employees to work in the office five days a week. Can you do a video about this? Do you think it's because the company thinks they will be more productive, or is it about control?

[@honkhonk8009]

GOOD. That means the job is harder to outsource to Indians. We need more in person jobs.

[@MrVirgo-ze1ft]

You're giving me hope, as soon I become a software engineerig, I'll be buying a car and putting your name

[@keithrincon]

Signing up today!

[@Strwbbcakee]

Can you make a video on what makes a good resume? I have been using tools like resume worded to help score my resume but it’s been hard out here. Thanks!

[@youngjesus5992]

Well this made me feel just a tiny bit more secure. I really enjoy learning software development. I’m casually learning every day for an hour or 2 after working as a welder and hanging out with my gf. This is basically my hobby now lol one day it’ll become a job and hopefully one where I’ll take more pride in than I do as a welder. I take pride in my work as a welder but i honestly don’t like being referred to as a blue collar worker or uneducated. Sounds condescending tbh so I wanna get out of that😂

[@adrenaline1320]

Leet code doesn't give you the job, it prevents you from getting filtered out

[@hellowill]

Yeah AI will assist us, just like IDEs and compilers. So we can focus on even higher level. IMO that means junior devs are kinda fked if they don't figure out the higher level things like problem solving and system design.

[@brotendo]

I asked AI if this is just history repeating itself with regard to people doubting that a technology could ever replace human labor, here's what it said: "Throughout history, there have been numerous instances where people doubted that new technologies could replace or disrupt established jobs, industries, or ways of life. These doubts often stemmed from the belief that the human element was irreplaceable. Here are some notable examples:" It then went on to give me eight examples where humans or human power were completely replaced lol. Sure, AI "hallucinates" now. But everyone is thinking too short term on what AI can accomplish in 5 years. It reminds me of the adage, "People often overestimate what they can accomplish in one year, but underestimate what they can accomplish in five years." We underestimate what AI might be able to do a decade from now.

[@coldshock5181]

Exactly, people apply what AI can do now to what it can do in five years

[@SethGrantham-k1x]

Not to mention, no company is going to say, "well, AI can now do devs jobs for 20% of the price and time, so we're firing all the devs!". That's just not going to happen. Instead companies are going to go, "cool, we can build 5 times more products for the same price as we are right now, let's get to work and dominate!". That's it, companies will just make even more products and services than they already have.

[@peelfreshvita3199]

keep selling the delusion boys. 'we can build 5 times more products' -> more workload, same guy 'for the same price as we are right now' -> more workload, same pay all in all, the message was, be prepared to be slave. your life, family, time? no. more productivity for investor get more bonuses. WOW.

[@rsbah]

Wow, this is incredibly naive Developers cost A LOT (at least in US). If companies can get rid of a couple, they will have saved millions AI is at the point where it can replace a team of junior developers, imagine where it will be 5 years from now lol And also, it's not just AI....there are many cheaper countries producing highly skilled developers at an astounding rate. India is one of them, but also South American countries are another

[@auxwarzone6335]

@@rsbahwhich AI can replace a team of developers? Even O1 struggles with generating basic unit tests for me.

[@rsbah]

@@auxwarzone6335 you don't think companies will use AI to cut down on the number of junior devs/ interns they hire? Or even contract workers? Devs can use AI tools to become so productive that it seems inevitable it will eliminate the need for more developers

[@johndane3261]

For discussion: if there is still work, why let people go so current developers have to work more?

[@johndane3261]

Maybe it's due to the economy almost hitting a recession.

[@redleader2211]

Missing the forest for the trees. Companies already know what it takes to create senior developers, years of XP starting from juniors. What they're betting on is LLMs surpassing that in ~10 years which is why all their investments are in A.I and not talent development. Right or wrong, they know what they're doing and junior developers are in fact screwed since they'll just hang on to their existing seniors for longer.

[@alexchencreates]

how do you feel after seeing GPT o1? The accountability point stands but I feel like we can be less sure that these models can't do basic reasoning to the level that humans can, assuming you break problems up into small enough pieces for them (which they seem to be able to learn how to do as well, given the right prompting). Curious if your thoughts on AI have shifted.

[@chazzman4553]

I don't know what else to offer to juniors other than do some work for free for some good company (do not work for garbage companies ever) and then try to get hired. Freelance is an option, but you will compete with super skilled Eastern Europe and India, Pakistan, Africa. They will start hiring like crazy again after this mega overhype with AI will settle and will bust!

[@ian08520]

Im halfway through my computer science degree! Not for the money, just want a different career.

[@nathanaelhart8487]

Finally a voice of reason. Remember that the market won’t get better for a while, like he said now is a good time to go back to school or start a business. As long as you are advancing your knowledge and capabilities, you will come out the other side on top.

[@MrBustroj]

Video is actually very good, but I have to ask you: Do you really think it is easier to get a job as QA, SDET, TPM, Project Manager and Program Manager, than Junior Developer? ( 10:17 in video)

[@auradood]

So I just need to wait 2-3 years to get my entry level job, awesome

[@RosMyster]

Developers destroyed the world, it was much better in the 90s...

[@RLleeo]

WHY BRO?? r u from CS background?? Then how can u say so??

[@yuttahs7165]

This was a very levelheaded, reasonable answer to what is happening now. None of the gloom and doom that I hear from most creators. 👍

[@asi69420]

great video

[@stillmattwest]

I’m an engineering manager and web development instructor. I agree with everything Steve (Steeeeve) says in this video. Including that now is the time to train new skills. Including how to work in tandem with AI.

[@SidTheITGuy]

I keep getting more and more disappointed hearing this sentiment that "In the old days, anybody could get hired with a 300K salary" or something like that, like people are over-romanticizing the past into oblivion. There is no hope for people if you can't get over the past. Yes, there was a lot more jobs some time ago. But so was the competition. Realize this, people.

[@peelfreshvita3199]

don't do whataboutism the argument wasn't 'in the old days, anybody could get hired with a 300k salary' people is saying 'in the old days, anybody could get hired, even at the age of 35, as junior programmer' reason? people at corporate, at management, isn't yet driven by projected profit and the crunch of the economy the politician driven the country to, and nobody is spiking their butt with 'profits profits profits' for 'the money they invested, without the work put in themselves. example? chatgpt is one of the tools, used to create future factory workers, with little salary, huge workload.

[@vasujain1970]

How does the OpenAI O1 model change your narrative? It does have significantly more reasoning capabilities.

[@lemon4652]

did you actually evaluate and validated the new capabilities?

[@BladeAurora]

yeah surely it is! it just cost >$50 billion of compute and uses 100k tokens for chain of prompt reflection inference. surely, this can scale infinitely and we won't hit an asymptote! we can hit grokking, we just need to you to give us all your data and compute!

[@nathanaelhart8487]

It’s not an upgrade though, it’s the same fundamental technology just re-prompting itself. Yes it works better but it’s not a scalable upgrade.

[@viclim289]

⚠Spoiler Alert⚠ As a QA Engineer looking for an opportunity, the competition is equally bad, if not worse right now.

[@Abdulrizzler]

Only two type of engineer will stay in market ml&ai engineer and cybersecurity engineers Me being a cybersecurity engineer 2 year experience, cybersecurity engineering jobs are increasing

[@jjeverson2269]

Devops is going strong

[@DogsD08gs2s]

No, that’s not accurate. There’s a wealth of community resources available to help juniors land jobs. This KZbinr is only sharing his personal experience, which may not reflect yours. While feedback can be helpful, don’t rely solely on KZbinrs to tell you what’s hard. Nothing is truly hard-it’s about how much time and effort you put into solving problems, rather than telling yourself that everything is difficult. There are countless resources out there to help you, with coding communities being some of the best for providing support. Don’t let someone else’s opinion discourage you-focus on solving the challenges in your own way. AI is not going to replace you; it’s just a tool to help. AI won’t get paid, but you will.

[@EduardMititiuc]

I am so sorry for junior developers. They have no chance to get into the industry.

[@bestopinion9257]

They have a chance but they need to become senior level on their own. That takes time, unpaid time.

[@filip5150]

They have a chance but need to lower their expectations and apply for application support/helpdesk/managed services role with technical background to get into any IT job at first. Within the same company there are many opportunities to switch for application consultant or other roles and go from there. I had multiple examples that people from HR or support switched to junior data analyst/CRM consultant/data engineer/ dev ops developers and it was much more achievable than being in the interview hell pushing for junior web developer/junior backend etc

[@waterspray5743]

​@@bestopinion9257How does a junior become a senior without work experience?

[@bestopinion9257]

@@waterspray5743 On their own. Make full fledged working applications for projects not to do list. Use AI for mentoring.

[@bestopinion9257]

@@waterspray5743 I didn't say a senior. I said senior level. You have to figure out by yourself. It is easier to search now with AI tools.

[@pauliuslapinskas7010]

Market is a radical thing. It is either amazing and wonderful time to be in or just misery. Mostly all due to the hype of C level managers in big companies and others trying to follow them... I am still asking questions of this whole market. How come marketing and sales managers become C level managers in IT companies. Second question... Why is it better to hire consultancy to solve Your problems, compared to hire Your team in house to do the same stuff (mostly for cheaper as You do not need to pay Partners salary in consultancy company).

[@GoonCity777]

Just get a blue collar skill & certificate as a backup, while still pursuing tech (my idea)

[@_Mamimi]

Junior devs are not screwed. The bar is just set higher for entry..

[@aminesouley8252]

Lol it's funny this guy dont need to tell you he was a staff Engineer lol the clarity and the rationality of his thinking is off the chart... "The junior engineer of today are the senior of tomorrow ; No junior => No seniors" simple as that.

[@ZM-dm3jg]

Was this video recorded before the release of OpenAI's new 5o 'complex reasoning' model? Because that represents a colossal acceleration of the timeline to developers losing their jobs to AI, not a slowdown

[@tHebUm18]

Irrelevant.

[@trumputin8235]

"complex reasoning model" 🤣 Bro it just prompts itself nothing new

[@dasaauploads1143]

We are cooked, tell all your classmates too.

[@ArjunPrasad-r2x]

Short Answer: "Quit Job - Make Content on KZbin" ✌️

[@boot-strapper]

Most of the 1000s of applications are just AI applications. Its like 50 indian people applying automatically to every job in existence.

[@DL-iy3lf]

software engineering is the only profession where someone at an interview is simultaneously expected to be an encyclopedia and supercomputer at the same time.

[@bcal5962]

Well I am an accountant and not even a coder and this was a fascinating video. Your analysis of what happens when the company does the 2 year cut was bang on

[@MatheusLB2009]

I'd call what we're going through right now "the covid hangover"

[@davedoublee-indiegamedev8633]

2:17 that sounds oddly personal hehe

[@peteolesen265]

Good video. I think everyone tends to make assumptions that AI will of course try to destroy humanity, and/or take all of our jobs. While I think many jobs will be lost, many will be created. Once AI equals human intelligence, it won’t necessarily want to work for humans. If you don’t need to eat, buy a house or car, why would you work for someone else? You would go out and do your own thing. I probably have an ant colony somewhere in my yard. I don’t want to either enslave the ants nor destroy them. My time is better spent on other things. When AI surpasses human intelligence, I think the same thing will happen. We humans tend to have a lot of ego and think the sun rises and sets only on us.

[@hopelessdecoy]

I think the dread comes from the business side, the tech side knows right now the LLMs cannot replace most if not all tech jobs. The business side however sees the LLM spit out a correct simple SQL query and then fantasizes about rolling around in a tub of cut tech professionals paychecks that they get to deposit tomorrow in their bank account. Most of them I would argue would do it in a heart beat if they got the right thumbs up from someone. The business side is tech dumb (in most cases) and money hungry (like all of us to some point) but there are a ton more upsides to business people replacing technical positions than any other effected party.

[@popinjay69]

So Steve is incentivized to tell you this but let’s examine the facts: 1. AI is currently showing signs of reasoning especially with open AI’1 o-1 model. There’s some very smart people trying to solve all the current shortcomings of AI, and he falsely claims that we don’t know when the next breakthrough will be, but breakthroughs are happening every other half of a year. I think the truth is somewhere in the middle. The industry has fundamentally changed forever. And while it’s not quite the end of Junior devs, the demand is never going to grow as fast as it used to. That I can say for sure. No point to be a SWE now if you’re not going to be among the best

[@RLleeo]

So which major to choose???

[@popinjay69]

@@RLleeo if you're certain you'll be an exceptional programmer (a good rule of thumb is if you were particularly exceptional at math and science), then I'd still go ahead and major in it. beyond that I have no clear answer for you. probably something in healthcare or government as those are less likely to be replaced even if the AI can do the job better... at least in our lifetime.

[@popinjay69]

I'd also encourage you to major in it if you like it and would not rather do anything else. It's not a bad major.. just that the things that used to make it appealing for most people (job security, high pay) are less likely unless you're in the top 10-20%. Plus there's a lot of utility in knowing how these tools work, regardless. So all in all, my answer is: major in CS if you'll be very good at it, or you simply love it (in which case you'll still be very good at it eventually), otherwise seriously consider the healthcare field or sth in government. There might be other stuff I've not thought of but yeah

[@blackhole4813]

I do not know anymore people get jobs and I am building AI and then suddenly no more jobs. Where else can I go?

[@coldshock5181]

I heard cyber security is always good, there is a human aspect to it that ai can't fully replace

[@LuisRoel-w6q]

He should have said, "My name is Steve, also known as the voice of reason"

[@LCTesla]

it's the opposite. Juniors benefit the most from current generation AI. it gives them a repertoire of skills where otherwise they'd have none. Seniors are the ones that are seeing their skills matched or exceeded by laymen at a fraction of the effort.

[@Dovias-v3v]

I disagree. Both seniors and juniors benefit from the AI, so the people who are seniors currently are the ones who's reaping the benefits, since they have freedom of choice, meanwhile juniors have no choice at all, hardly even any chance, when you need to complete 4-6 months course on things and be the best out of the people in the course to even get a job interview in which you will eventually get rejected to a lack experience. How can I get experience if I cannot get experience? I'm pretty sure that my skills are decent enough to land a job to me, but most of the HR's dont want to employ people with no job experience, even if you had many internships, bootcamps and an university degree for that.

[@LCTesla]

@@Dovias-v3v you're describing a phenomenon of the US IT market that long predates AI

[@timwang4659]

I'm starting to notice this trend. These LLMs are able to make everyone seniors where the human will just be overseeing the process while the AI does the grunt work.

[@mahtabsoin7239]

I agree, years of coding experience matter less and less. Anyone with the right framework in mind can and will figure out a way to do something without getting stuck for ages.

[@Out5Here]

This is backwards. The seniors are who benefit from AI - the junior is no longer needed. LEADERSHIP are what juniors don’t have and it will show. 1 senior with LLM can eliminate the need for a junior in a company. Win win situation for the two. Losing situation for the junior.