ARIMA Model Explained | Time Series Forecasting

[@danielfonseca8484]

Man you are the best... Really struggled to find good content explaining time series concepts and applications... Most sources fall short on one of those, but your material is perfect. Many thanks 🙏

[@egorhowell]

Thanks a ton!

[@5c6c666666]

Nice video which is easy to catch up with. Keep it up.

[@egorhowell]

Thanks! Let me know any feedback!!

[@paxer2k]

Do you have to feed the data that was differenced to the ARIMA model or the original? I remember you saying that some models apply this differencing automatically, but I am not quite sure about this one. Also, how come you are using the Passengers_Boxcox and not Passengers_Diff when you are feeding it into the ARIMA model?

[@egorhowell]

Hey the auto_arima package / function does differencing for you. Best to check the documentation and they will say whether it has been differenced

[@gwengaw6991]

Great video!!!! I wish I found this first!!

[@egorhowell]

Glad it was helpful!

[@victorfigueroa9976]

Thanks for this video it really helped me out.

[@egorhowell]

Glad to hear it!

[@donharrold1375]

I'm guessing that forecasting far beyond the original data set is somewhat risky, i.e. if you have 4 or 5 years of data then it may be sensible to forecast for 6-12 months beyond the original data set???

[@egorhowell]

yes the further forward you forecast, the higher the error will likely be

[@donharrold1375]

@ Been forecasting a volatile commodity based on daily data, looking for an annual resolution, e.g. trying to get an approximate view of 1y ahead; demand is solid but supply is weather dependent. Sort of works. Perfect match for training and the 3-6 month trends look consistent with historical data; the underlying market fundamentals are driving higher prices which the model mimics. Gets flakey beyond 6 months

[@egorhowell]

i can give you more concrete advice with a 1:1 call: topmate.io/egorhowell

[@tobiasgrb00]

Great video mate. Keep pushing

[@egorhowell]

Thanks, will do!

[@raulsiqueirayt]

Really great video! thanks a lot :)

[@egorhowell]

Glad you liked it!

[@DavidEsparzaAlba]

Great videos, BTW it sounds like you say "Hi Amigo" :P

[@egorhowell]

Hey, thanks haha