Рет қаралды 669,241
Territory may be the most commonly used barometer for assessing the success or failure of the winter campaign, but just as important is the impact of the fighting on the forces.
Attrition is intrinsically linked to war, as men and equipment are ground down by the effort and by enemy action. In this episode we look at loss estimates, discuss the challenges of attrition, and update on the efforts of both sides to make up losses and generate new offensive potential.
Patreon:
/ perunau
Caveats/Corrections:
At one point I make a reference to 'combat deaths' when i mean military deaths (hard to have non-combat-combat casualties) I also refer to pilots flying hundreds of hours per year, I meant per month in that example.
I also incorrectly conflate Desert Storm and Shield - There are a number of other small errors of that type
Rebuttal of statements/estimates advanced by others are general in nature and should be taken as merely my personal opinion on the matter
I would also take my usual warning about data quality and limitations and multiply it as far as it will go on this one - attrition is hard to externally assess and, as noted, the data is tightly controlled and highly politically charged
Sources/Reading:
Credits to Oryx and Wartranslated as always
Indian Standing Committee on Defence - March 2023
loksabhadocs.nic.in/lsscommit...
UA repair figures
www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/...
RUSI - the air war in Ukraine
static.rusi.org/SR-Russian-Ai...
GAO/NSIAD-91-304 (Costs of Desert Storm/Shield)
www.gao.gov/assets/nsiad-91-3...
Testimony in response to Desert Storm/Shield cost projections
apps.dtic.mil/sti/pdfs/AD1176...
RU 400,000 contractors
www.businessinsider.com/russi...
tass.com/defense/1048138
3:1 Rule
apps.dtic.mil/sti/pdfs/ADA302...
Loss estimates
www.csis.org/analysis/ukraini...
zona.media/casualties
www.abc.net.au/news/2023-01-2...
www.washingtonpost.com/world/...
www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/...
novayagazeta.eu/articles/2022...
UA Offensive Guard
www.kyivpost.com/post/12095
UA troops train on Leo2
www.euronews.com/2023/02/14/u....
GAO/NSIAD-92-20 Operation Desert Storm
www.gao.gov/assets/nsiad-92-2...
NSIAD-92-94 Abrams performance in Desert storm
www.gao.gov/assets/nsiad-92-9...
Wagners's odd recruitment choices
www.rt.com/russia/573045-wagn...
Russia HIMARs claims in media:
www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/7...
TASS on t-54/55
tass.com/pressreview/1593845
Ukrainians repairing Russian vehicles
www.rferl.org/a/ukrainian-mec...
EU training efforts:
mil.in.ua/en/news/the-eu-want...
WW1 casualties per Library of Congress
www.loc.gov/collections/world...
CIT on T-54/55
notes.citeam.org/t-54?s=1
Selected loss graphs from leedrake5
github.com/leedrake5/Russia-U...
Timestamps:
00:00:00 -- Attrition & the winter war in Ukraine
00:01:05 -- WHAT AM I TALKING ABOUT?
00:02:09 -- CASUALTIES & ATTRITION
00:04:22 -- the real drivers of losses
00:06:59 -- historical deviation or return to mean?
00:08:10 -- ESTIMATING CASUALTIES
00:11:40 -- mixed methods
00:15:01 -- illustrating the point: Russian estimates
00:19:54 -- THE COST OF THE WINTER FIGHTING
00:23:17 -- UKRAINIAN ACTIONS & RESPONSES
00:27:23 -- RUSSIAN ACTIONS & RESPONSE
00:33:13 -- OBSERVATIONS & ENDURANCE
00:37:57 -- EQUIPMENT LOSSES
00:38:05 -- combat loss claims
00:42:14 -- visually confirmed loss data
00:43:34 -- what it shows?
00:45:29 -- DEPRECIATION & CONSUMPTION
00:45:39 -- attrition is more than just combat losses
00:48:50 -- scale drives consumption
00:54:04 -- the capacity & readiness problem
00:57:33 -- Indian evidence?
00:58:40 -- DEALING WITH THE EQUIPMENT CHALLENGE
00:58:47 -- the Russian approach & the T-54 thing
01:03:19 -- Ukraine's foreign lifelines and trophy systems
01:07:47 -- estimating endurance
01:08:39 -- CONCLUSIONS
01:09:58 -- CHANNEL UPDATE