Australia Property Bubble - What the long term data shows

Dominic Bohan takes a look at the overseas data and long term Australia house price data, and what it can tell us about the future of the Australian property market.
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[@cmonkey63]

This is exactly the kind of material that high school students should be shown before they graduate. Very well done. The numbers don't lie. And the next time someone tries to drag me to a real estate investment seminar, I'll just say, "I smell tulips."

[@economytimes3919]

Everybody must watch this, a long term Australian property chart tells a very good story

[@beldengi]

Rent money is not dead money. It buys you a place to live. Mortgage interest is dead money. Tiny houses are the third way.

[@gregmartin6653]

beldengi Caravan works for me 😁

[@gersonadr2]

Rent is dead money. And so is interest on a mortgage, strata, council rates, water rates, insurance, maintenance and opportunity cost.

[@hamishevans6260]

Mortgage interest is not dead money. It gives you ownership rights over the property and all of the equity growth that goes along with it. If you rent a house for 10 years and the property value doubles you walk away - if you paid interest only you sell the house and walk away with a retirement size nest egg.

[@itskoota]

@@gersonadr2 also you negative gear the property so you claim back half of that interest you pay for your property. If you have renters in it you'll get back nearly the rest of the loan repayments meaning you end up not paying that much for the property per year while over 10 years the propertys capital rises

[@gersonadr2]

Nathan Poulos that’s right. So instead of paying, say, 10k in dead money in form of interest, I get to pay only 5k. Let’s call it “half-dead money”. And assuming all goes well and house prices appreciate forever, I will get that money at some point + some appreciation. I understand the logic behind real estate, but personally decided to “play a different game”.

[@tonycoz2309]

The current data suggests 2019 will continue to see a decline in home prices. This economy which has been running on debt is unsustainable.

[@Aasn9]

Absolutely. In a debt-laden economy whereby lending standards have declined since the 1980's, household net worth is all phantom wealth anyway because asset prices have exploded higher in direct response to the currency debauchery. Buying a home for $200k and then selling it for $400k is a phantom way of measuring wealth because it ignores household productivity and was only the result of easy credit. "Wealth", as it is used here, really means "household leverage over the last 30 years". These are all balance sheet semantics done by accountants and bankers. They are only meaningful when the SHTF because it gives bankers the legal means to confiscate your assets. How did we get here? The Currency Act 1965 is the answer to that question.

[@cfmc6201]

Most developed economies run a deficit. So debt. If you sat on the side line for the last 30 years you would be a long way behind

[@steven-t-e-shaw]

@@Aasn9 what went wrong with the currency act?

[@Aasn9]

Steven Shaw Currency Act 1965 violated Chapter V of The Australian Constitution which insists upon a value based currency not pure Fiat created as debt which encourages a gross misallocation of capital and resources. In a Fiat currency system, once the debt goes exponential, as it has, it's game over.

[@auswebmarketing]

@@Aasn9 You'll find this interesting - I believe It's not currency as such that is the issue but banks have in fact been issuing their own "money" . There is a huge problem with this and it's the real reason we have so much dent in the economy. www.rba.gov.au/publications/bulletin/2018/sep/money-in-the-australian-economy.html

[@defectiveclone8450]

Very well said. Property is not an investment .. its a place to live.

[@abhishekdas9281]

It is an investment. You can rent it out and earn cash. Only demerit is it its not very liquid i.e. you can't just sell it whenever you want

[@paulohara6727]

Its OK if you can pay off your mortgage. But investors already have the money so they can't lose.

[@calebbelac3455]

@@abhishekdas9281 100% agree with you Abhishek. I'll be buying my first property hopefully by the end of the year and we should acknowledge that if you have people (students/house borders) move in with you, they can pay off your mortgage with you!

[@abhishekdas9281]

@@calebbelac3455 but you didn't buy it you dimwit. You basically took it using a annuity based loan. That's not a purchase or investment, that's a liability. In America most people mistake it for a purchase. That's just them, and you being foolish. I'm talking about fully paid apartments which can later on get me money for renting them out.

[@calebbelac3455]

@@abhishekdas9281 WOAH! No need for name calling! I was simply replying to your comment. And for the record you never stated if you were talking about an apartment or house. I still like your first comment though.

[@fouriertransformed4677]

The expression "but the Australian housing market is different" used to confuse the hell out of me also; until it came to my attention that the Chinese use the Australian housing market to park their money, even launder it ! You and I would (normally) use a bank; the Chinese use the Australian housing market. So, if a Chinese businessman (or woman) has a million dollars to park, they don't care if a suburban property that used to cost $100,000 will cost $900,000; that's less properties that they have to buy & maintain. Meanwhile, the average Aussie is priced out of the game. So yes, the Australian property market IS different.

[@roykolberg9599]

Very nice presentation of possibilities mate, subscribed! This video deserves more views. Thank you.

[@albrown74]

Fantastic video. The way I see it, we’ve got unsustainable household debt at a rock bottom cash rate and we’ve got over a million households under mortgage stress. Plus 200 billion in interest only loans expiring in the next few years. Unfortunately for a lot of households, they are going to get a economic shock like we’ve never seen before.

[@MrSwaggOn]

Then there will be alot of cheap houses on the market then... and alot of people on the street.

[@cmonkey63]

But, but, I was told we don't have a sub-prime problem in Australia.

[@gyzmopower7599]

Minute 7.30 the most intelligent advice I have heard. Good information and well presented. Subscribed.

[@makemoneywithshawn]

This charts on "Constant Quality Real House Prices" offers some really interesting data. At 4.15 it talks about the introduction of negative gearing in 1985. Shortly after the data shows a sharp increase in the price. What is missing from this chart is the introduction of the first home owners grants on the 1st of July 2000. It is interesting that the price jumps sharply from around 200 (in 2000) to around 300 basis points within 2-3 years. Since then it has jumped on average 50-100 basis points every 5 years. This is in some way some evidence that government interference into the property market through the introduction of both negative gearing and first home owners grant has greatly contributed to this large rise basis points in the last 30 years. It would be fair to assume that prices would have still naturally risen, but perhaps to a more reasonable level of say 225-250 basis points without negative gearing or first home owners grants. It would be fair to say that home ownership would have been very affordable in 2019 if this was the case. Average home price in Sydney (for example) would be closer to $500 - $600K rather than the $1mill + figures we have seen over the last few years. It does appear that these so-called "benefits", have been the main cause for this large rise and should both be scrapped as soon as possible so that house prices take a dive as soon as possible. Let's just take the hit and be done with it.

[@TheHealthLife]

Bloody Awesome comment Shawn..spot on.

[@makemoneywithshawn]

@@TheHealthLife Thanks for the comment Dave. Nice to have a like-minded supporter

[@MegaLietuvislt]

Solid video, mate. Coherent, well argumented and well made

[@yusuf.alajnabi]

This is very good advice I will share it with people I know my opinion is if you can afford to buy a house than you should but not at these current overvalued house prices they need to come down to more sustainable levels. Yes a lot of people will be in strife but that's the reason you shouldn't take on too much debt in the first place.

[@venerable102]

You missed the two strongest catalysts that caused the 50 + yr bull market. Introduction of the RBA and the repeal of glass steagall

[@vicherd]

Great video. The graphics are compelling and really helps us follow the audio.

[@technoomelette6836]

A great presentation. House prices are determined by the price and availability of credit.

[@beautanner8409]

This is a really awesome vid. Up here in Vancouver, we're facing pretty much the same thing. Thanks, really appreciate the insight.

[@anthonyroberts7641]

Great video, just wondering where you get the charts for housing market? Ive only been able to find basic stuff.

[@terrygittos6089]

Very honest breakdown of the current situation. On point!

[@maff3]

Very well made video!

[@robertcoyte3243]

Excellent video with very sound advice that should be followed

[@patrickadownes]

Very very well put together video on the current housing market debacle.

[@philipsigglekow9407]

Great video ... times earnings ratio is the key indicator

[@CL-ey8vw]

Yes and only sustainable when the credit and interest rate settings are extremely favourable. Credit has dried up...

[@homebrandrules]

mate what a superb video, yr mate at economy times sent me. 9.5/10 !! excellent voice rythm, timing, cadence etc. concise AND MOST OF ALL WITHOUT ALOT OF WASTEFUL WAFFLE TO LENGTHEN THE VID AND WASTE OUR TIME!

[@petercirsten4698]

Really good work Patriot honest information for the sheeple of Australia. They seem to be blind to what is coming.👍

[@newbiekhyber]

Excellent. Loved it. Applies to other countries as well.

[@haroldgrey134]

I saw a video claim that house prices largely track the money supply. Another school of thought claims that credit availability, in other words - how much banks are willing to loan, how big those loans are and how many people can get new loans drives house prices. The banking royal commission showed that credit was very loose in the boom years. Finally tying these puzzle pieces together is the claim made by Prof Richard Werner that private banks create money into existence when they make loans to buy assets. I believe these puzzle pieces coming together - private banks increasing the money supply and the speed of which the money supply is inflated, plus government interference through lowering interest rates, buyers grants, tax and construction incentive schemes, and the population's capacity to take on ever larger debt, explains Australia's meteoric rise in the last 5 to 10 years. If banks loosen credit after tightening it, if government can ignite a new round of FOMO, and if there is another cohort of relatively unburdened (debt free) Australians (or new wealthy migrants) who can be lured into the market - then we could get another meteoric run up. But if those factors aren't in play - if banks remain tight, if Australians (with second highest debt to income in the world) can't borrow more, and if government can't re-spark irrational exuberance, I don't think there will be another leg up.

[@Spacemonkeymojo]

I feel sorry for people who bought in the past two years or so. I mean it was obvious that the housing market is in a bubble, you would have to be an absolute nutter to have bought a property in the past few years. Too many Australians are basic af who don't know anything at all about investing and tell each other "house prices double every 7 years" when historically (as you showed) house prices did not double every 7 years, it has only been in the past couple of decades where housing has boomed, and even more so in the past several years. I believe we're at a point where interest rates will stay low for a long time. If the RBA increases interest rates Australia will be fucked because of how reliant our economy is on the housing market and construction. Many interest only loans for example are going to move to principal and interest in the next few years, and how many Aussies out there are paying only interest on their mortgage? It's a scary thought. It's a real shame there are so many fools out there buying houses like they are investments. If they knew anything about investing they'd know that historically share markets rise a lot more than the housing markets over time. The share market is volatile sure, and people do say "investing in shares is gambling" which it can be to an extent, but that risk is largely mitigated if people actually research the company they're investing in and think about the big picture and where that company could be in 5 to 10 years, as well as where the wider economy is heading. The retail sector has shown a cooling period lately as well, and automotive sales have also dropped. The RBA probably wants to keep interest rates low to help boost spending, but I don't think it will help much at all. In terms of Bitcoin, it's believed that price was ramped up artificially (study done by a university in Texas) and the entire thing is *extremely* shady. I mean they don't even know who the fuck invented Bitcoin LOL, some guy named Satoshi Nakamoto posted semi-regularly on some forum saying he/she/they developed it. The people who got rich off Bitcoin basically stole other people's money. The person/people who created it and early buyers probably spread through word of mouth that Bitcoin was going to be the next big thing then when more ignorant people started buying in and they told their ignorant friends to buy etc etc the price exploded, then the people who were there from the start dumped everything and got extremely rich. You have way too many idiots out there trying to get rich quick on crypto, when they probably don't even understand it properly. These people are the type who want to get rich quick and will part with their money foolishly in pursuit of that.

[@12madcats]

Great video! We need to break the will only go up fallacy. It has created huge instability in the system.

[@jamesmccarthy1662]

Either wages need to catch up (unlikely) or house prices need to come down, what one do you think is more likely?

[@andreaparas7855]

Mate, your really good.

[@amadd5641]

Exactly the same points that I've been raising with friends and on chat forums for years. This just seems common sense to me, but it's nice to see it presented so well and in a nutshell. I'd also point out that foreign "investment" has slowed to a halt and the Chinese government are even trying to get their money back out because it was never quite legally invested here under Chinese laws. People may say that immigration will remain high so that will continue to boost demand, however, because of affordability issues, especially for migrants with not much money and many working in lower paying jobs, we may see a more common scenario where they will choose the smart option and share housing like the Vietnamese did so many years ago. There may be a lot of people who have been saving to be in a position to buy and are thinking that now is a great opportunity, but for mine, I'd say hold for at least a year or two to get a feel of where the market is going. The odds are that it's not going to rise in a hurry, and much more likely that it will continue to drop, or best case, plateau for a very long period. In which case, you win with the flexibility of renting and better yet, sharing accommodation if that can be made to work.

[@algofreak8510]

It's not immigration which caused this, it's the debt money which just consolidated by china and (Aus ,Canada) started feeling the pain. I think they have learnt their lesson and cleaned up their economy. what will happen when other countries will do the same, whole world economy will be doomed for next 10 years.

[@EastWood2004]

Great source. I just wish the Y axis value was scaled logarithmically so we can compare the growth rate.

[@mattyevo8774]

It’s funny not long after the rba was formed in 1960 is when house prices started to rise from being stagnant for 50 years or so

[@Sean-ll5cm]

I wouldn't say funny. I mean, what you're seeing is the true onset of globalisation and the growing world economy. I mean, we weren't communist. We've always been a market economy, therefore our economy, ergo house prices, started growing around that time

[@VoteLaborOut]

@4:59 are we comparing like to like though? an apartment in HK is different to a freehold freestanding house in Sydney

[@chrisyorke3013]

Sensible advice. A house is a place to live in, not necessarily an appreciating asset. The past five decades have been anomalous and fed the delusion of ever-rising real prices. It is now the twilight of illusion in Australian real estate circles. In the big eastern cities, a 20% drop will prove only to be leg 1.

[@larrychang5879]

Well done D Money!

[@chriisandkim]

Decent video but not sure how you neglected to include the introduction of the RBA in 1959....

[@harisapkota2008]

real one , very impressive

[@wujulie6300]

I think if a property’s realistic potential rent income is similar to 80% loan repayment, then it’s a purchase with low risk. Especially house with land, not townhouse or units.

[@seanredfern5361]

Also a note to add, the banks can't keep extending the length of loans so that the masses can keep affording them either. Sydney house prices have peaked for a very long time. When you need 2 household incomes to pay off a house and 30yrs to do so. Where can you go from there?

[@deccanwhack5972]

...to hell!

[@coasteyscoasteys4150]

Sean 50 years and get the kids involved lol

[@algofreak8510]

Best video ever. Aus real estate market is going to face the worst downturn in the history and it may take a decade to recover unless bought by foreign investors. Government should be prepared for this like the action taken by Canada (Foreign buyer and vacant home tax). Do not buy unless you can buy in cash.

[@MrSunnyuber]

Australia suffered a brutal depression in 1890 and another in 1929...so both of those contributed greatly to flat growth in house prices for 50 years.

[@Sean-ll5cm]

it was a different world back then

[@MorganBrown]

Money supply versus asset price is an interesting plot. Makes you question, just a leeeeetle bit, the official inflation numbers put forth by governments

[@markdebelich5101]

Very well presented subject. This is the sort of information that should be shown on TV, but the Government and banks do not want the masses to be educated and more importantly....have a brain and think.

[@raeburnreal2638]

Yes great story

[@lnk3503]

House prices have averaged 3 years average wages for up to 100 years, between 1999 and 2007 Australia's average house went to 7 to 8 years wages.

[@whatwouldiknow1759]

Interest rates may stay low for the foreseeable future. So I believe that Australian property will drop a further 10% in 2019 and remain stagnant for another 5 or so years.

[@Gumardee_coins_and_banknotes]

Historically Mark Blyth says that is normal in historical terms.

[@bennyillest5508]

good video

[@acceleration1146]

I like your philosophy 👍🏻

[@Travelingman-1980]

Try easy credit as a cause of parabolic house price increases.

[@laszlon.4424]

Bingo x1000

[@thomasranjit7781]

You are a good man....😀

[@Nick-wl2uz]

Always hear renting is dead money... what do people think interest is? Id rather rent and put in stocks anyday of the week in this day and age.

[@zooks3894]

Disagree completely. Its better to own than rent.

[@WhatIGot89]

@@zooks3894 Like mentioned in Barefoot Investor, renting and investing the difference in stocks is always the way to go when you break down all the costs. It's just that most people don't understand stocks and most instead of investing just blow their money. Housing is more of a forced savings account and a lifestyle choice than an investment. I prefer to rent and invest in stocks personally it suits my lifestyle much better than taking out a "death pledge" (mortgage) in the some boring ass suburb, that isn't the life for me, I prefer the flexibility plus base myself overseas a lot with my current work situation.

[@kenroylarmond7736]

Where do you get this data?

[@roseharvey2664]

Problem is when there is a crash, the banks stop lending, which means people can't buy houses. When houses stop selling construction stops too. Things go on a downward spiral for a few years, this is very painful if you owe the banks money as they still want paying back and are not very sympathetic.

[@CookieMonster-wy4qb]

Lol no mention that in 1971 real money gold was removed from the Monterey system and replaced with fiat currency !

[@MorganBrown]

Long live the Everything Bubble!

[@imemine7]

You missed one of the most important factors in recent house price growth, especially in Sydney, and that is the use of interest only loans. At one stage 42% of new loans approved australia wide were interest only, no doubt a much higher proportion in Sydney. Interest only loans are basically a bet on continued house price growth. That these are popular is not surprising, given the high proportion of ads on tv being for betting apps, we are a nation of gamblers.

[@lcpl3rar]

20% can be a trigger point for owners and potential buyers

[@lnk3503]

Interest is dead money too especially in the regional areas.

[@davehammond743]

Whether you're right or incorrect, good video production. Some of them make me fall asleep.

[@mehranfreeman6192]

Awesome.

[@johnh9200]

It's terrible to look back in hindsight and see that it has actually accelerated rather than stagnate. The only way it will end is for inflation and interest rates to rise and that doesn't appear likely...though inflation is far worse than the RBA tells us. The graph at 3.30 highlights the impact of the introduction of GST and the First Home Owner Grant and highlighted to every Property "expert" that there was money to be made in housing. This isn't going to stop soon either. The RBA states that home prices are not apart of their charter but when families are forced to pay upwards of $35000.00 after tax in Rent, that money strangles families and whilst the Landlord should be reasonably pleased it is only going in Interest back to the Banks and Capital reductions, so Shops and Restaurants either miss out or Credit Card debt grows. How this isn't part of the RBA's Charter is anyone's guess. The ATO should be taxing Property Investors who "realize their gains" by accessing Capital Growth in Properties to purchase and gear for new purchases. They should also be treating individuals who own more than 5 Homes as "Business Entities" and taxing them annually at the Company Tax rate. Neither is going to happen. It will end cruelly at some point, the further it goes the worse the result.

[@karmariver2480]

Have a son ready to buy a unit to live in. He has about 50% deposit. He has saved all his life and has a good job + still does work with a uni. He has never had a credit card always pays cash/card, always lived at home . Where does he start? He has looked at places and worked out what he wants etc. Any suggestions on a lender? He intends to pay off the loan as fast as he can. Any advise would be wonderful . Thank you

[@benw8991]

It's not uncommon that things that increase value parabolically correct 80% of it's move once it reaches nearly a vertical trendline.

[@acubensstar5319]

Nice presentation! 7:02 which location is this please?

[@davidng9403]

hahaha it does look very northern hemisphere like

[@thomasranjit7781]

The borrower is at the mercy of the lender...

[@herogebrial]

That's how it works

[@sebastiaanvandoorn838]

That's the biggest question mark, in Europe you can get a 30 year fixed term at 3%, you know what you get going forward. Same for life and health insurance. Australia's financial institutions are notorious for changing the rules while playing, very unsettling from the outsider perspective!

[@c2h2c2h210]

good, just bought 2 apt in melbourne, 7% return pa.

[@richardminhle]

interest is also dead money and it doubles the rent.

[@xkimopye]

But if you pay off the mortgage in a short time you will get to spend the rest of your life mortgage/interest/rent free

[@richardminhle]

Kohan Gasperino how short can you pay it off? it will take at least 20years with current cost of living. then you have to pray u dont lose your job.

[@nolanwray1775]

interest rates... inverse correlation to RE.

[@bluehorseshoe6599]

Good explanation highlighting that the stellar growth in dwelling values up to, say 2017, will not be repeated. If you were in, say, prior to 2010 and have not increased debt and also paid that original debt down, you will be in a good financial position. Those who think the gains that some have achieved up to 2017, will be replicated for themselves going into the next decade are living in fairy land. For new entrants with little equity, the future is bigger debt which will take much longer to pay down coupled with a higher proportion of disposable income required to service that debt and all of this in an economic future with greater financial and personal risks, ie trade wars, job losses, high inflation and stagnant wages. Anyone who ticket LNP on Election Day who thought they would be getting ‘better economic managers’ have been fooled 🤡. That opportunity for change has passed, no matter how uncomfortable the alternative would have been it would have delivered reform, however now another slog of no action, spin, lies, obfuscation and blame. ✌️🙏👍💪🏻

[@JamesPrenticez]

Good advice - "buy a house because it gives you the lifestyle you want"

[@ronbroomhall5181]

real estate is well over 100% over valued compared to average wages, over history the average house price has always been 4 or 5 times the average yearly income and not 10 or 12 times like it is today.... will be a 40% to 60% crush within the next 36 months for sure and maybe even 70%?

[@muradtalukdar4401]

The RBA cash rate is 1.5%. And people are struggling. Imagine that. Around the globe, we currently have possibly the lowest price of money in the history of the world.

[@laszlon.4424]

Denmark, Japan, Sweden & Switzerland have negative interest rates, but your point us sound, this the lowest rates in Australia's history. The RBA has started (Lowe) that they would use negative interest rates if all else fails. Couple that with the war on cash & the future is volatile.

[@Sean-ll5cm]

@@laszlon.4424 how on earth do 'negative' interest rates work? They pay you for borrowing their money? lol

[@maythesciencebewithyou]

@@Sean-ll5cm No, you pay them to keep your money, while they use it to give loans and make money.

[@juz882010]

cant be stagnation if its down 16% already

[@brankarm9040]

Well what are you waiting for if you sell for those kind of prices you can buy properties in other countries where they have industries and real jobs

[@RedForceRising]

For many, home ownership is an emotional, as well as financial decision. A place to put down roots and raise your children. If you buy a small house within your means as your primary residence then you should be ok. A lot of younger colleagues tell me the plan was to rent and invest the difference, but they seldom do. Life gets in the way, they get the nice car, they got on Holidays to take photos for Instance, they get the new iPhones and MacBooks.

[@patyue5012]

The top 3 cities I can see are Investment mostly from one country dominated.

[@stansebastos3005]

Land Tax has gone up 5billion percent

[@kaylenejensen5122]

You forgot to look at 1971 when gold was debacked from the dollar fractional reserve lending inflating the dollar

[@minimumtrade]

Beginning 1988, the residential mortgage risk weight halved (the amount banks had to hold as capital reserves against residential mortgages), this unlocked the credit for the big 88-89 price bubble in Syd/Melb. From 1996-7 mortgage risk weights dropped again to 35% and then in Jan 2008 internal ratings were enabled for big4 + macq driving them down to as low as 14%! APRA put a stop to it from 2014/15, but the hot Chinese money kept the bubble alive for a couple more years. Now we pay the piper.

[@laszlon.4424]

RBA has already started (Lowe) they are NOT running out negative interest rates. Following Denmark, Japan, Sweden & Switzerland.

[@tcb268]

If the bubble properly bursts I may be able to afford a house - but I'll probably have no job.

[@maythesciencebewithyou]

When the bubble bursts the vultures will be ready to buy cheap and repeat the shit that happened.

[@terrydavis6368]

I don't think we will see the prices come down much, if it does it will be a blip. they print money and loan it out at a rate lower than inflation, so everything will continue inflating at a stupid rate.

[@jeremyk9400]

@@terrydavis6368 Until we have hyperinflation and destroy the currency. Home owners will hope the government brings in old legislation to protect their homes during a financial collapse.

[@terrydavis6368]

@@jeremyk9400 when I said inflating at a stupid rate I mean 10% a year or so, I don't think we are gonna have Weimar Germany experience. You have all those mines and commodities which gives your currency a real tangible value.

[@jeremyk9400]

@@terrydavis6368Fair point but global banks are so interconnected now that if deutsche bank for exmaple were to fail, it could bring the rest down with it and now we are seeing many governments toying with the idea of blockchain. Many of those commodities are being sold off to foreign investors however.

[@daveclancy7492]

It’s the time you hold gold and wait for the bubble pops as house prices will fall to where they were 20 years ago and gold will increase at the same time

[@thebritishindian1]

That was an excellent video. I've argued many times with people the same points you made, but I didn't do it as effectively. Also, thanks so much for explaining at the end how others can make a video this good. Much appreciated!

[@chdgntn]

so i looked at the DATA

[@bigdaddytizzle1]

this theory has been around for ages i was reading about this 15 years ago and scared myself out of making millions of dollars by not buying. Australia has a lot of growth, immigration and a massive transfer of wealth to the upper class they will be able to afford properties for a long time yet

[@davidsiah4431]

Are we going to have lots of jobs?

[@briancurran1140]

In pass it was great investment property was not nowadays way overpriced it’s dangerous to buy now

[@jasonparkes601]

Rent is dead money, so is interest.

[@markreynolds6220]

Govt won't let the pozi fall over, I say this 1 WK after nz labour priminster reneges on cgt.an talks of OCR rate cut

[@RJ-jh9fs]

Ah it came up after my comment

[@divizionx]

Economy times sent me here

[@norbertchong3920]

can the aussie house crash cause other countries house prices to crash also?

[@muradtalukdar4401]

What happens if a portion of the 30ish % of our overseas funding for Australian RE, is not paid back?

[@peternt2008]

I think a trend of the future will be people selling up their over valued properties in Melbourne and Sydney and relocating to cheaper states. Initially this will work well with retirees , they can sell their bungalow in Sydney valued at $1.7 million dollars and buy a nice house in somewhere like Adelaide within 20 minutes of the city for $500,000 and bank the remaining money and live on it in retirement. Then there will be the people who can work from anywhere via technology who can relocate to cheaper cities and enjoy a more relaxed cheaper lifestyle. And finally people who just can not see themselves being able to afford to buy a house in Sydney and Melbourne ever, they can job seek and house seek in cheaper cities to get a foot in the property market.

[@headbandassasin]

peter neagle who is buying mate?

[@peternt2008]

@@headbandassasin definitely not people who cant read like yourself

[@headbandassasin]

The root of your theory is that people are paying 1.7 for a retirees bungalow. Who is the buyer in a slowing/stagnating market? Your assumption is miles off you miserable fuck.

[@merlingeikie]

Anyone becomes obsessed with money trees. Housing became that, it could have been gold or tulips. It's the continual rise that does it. That eventually ends. There is a crash and those caught are caught by being overextended into debt, that they can't possibly afford.

[@pittassavvas7512]

OK, let's agree with you that rent is Dead money!!! My question to all is what is loan interest? And if you're having a hard time paying back towards the capital of the loan now, than what on earth are you going to do once the fed lift,s the rates? And how many of you are in a mortgage now that are paying in to a house that is worth less if sold then the mortgage itself? Negative equity!!! Good luck Auseis!!!!!

[@michaelevans1499]

I kinda leaning towards the problem of people buying a house for profit , And not to be home in . You cannot buy a home or love.

[@skinnypete2248]

Not all of Australia has houses 9x income. You know there are cities outside Sydney and Melbourne.

[@janebaker4912]

I bought land and already signed my building contract last year. Settlement is next January Do you think if I waited I would have gotten it cheaper ?? I have my paid off house here, but my husband thinks it's too small. I wonder if I let him talk me into a big family home when I should have stayed humble and mortgage free. (We're keeping this house as an investment property)

[@Sean-ll5cm]

can you terminate or renegotiate?

[@janebaker4912]

@@Sean-ll5cm wouldn't I loose my 40k deposit?

[@Sean-ll5cm]

@@janebaker4912 depends on any clauses that might be in the contract. Even the threat of attempting to terminate may help if you broach renegotiating.. where will you be building tho? The downturn hasn't hit everywhere in the same way. Also, if this is just a correction, prices will rise (tho it may take a good 5-10 years to reach the same highs)

[@janebaker4912]

@@Sean-ll5cm hmmm Victoria. A town an hour away from Melbourne called Geelong.

[@anthony-williamleach.8471]

Housing isn’t going up , it’s the USD falling in purchasing power. Period !

[@Worldsbestname]

From what I gathered, based on this video, whoever made this video is definitely a stock/ technical analyst and understands stocks basing etc. haha fellow Suubee member even maybe so?

[@JJSPARROW1978]

If you know anything, you know the reason for the crash is not houses themselves, but the money, it's creation and how it has been used. It's a fundamental systemic problem.