Bank of Canada Cuts, Says Home Prices Could Rise?

[@saretsky]

Loonie Hour in Ottawa! Get your tickets here: www.eventbrite.com/e/loonie-hour-in-ottawa-tickets-1004656072357?aff=oddtdtcreator

[@gingerkilkus]

People will have to accept the possibility that we won't ever return to 3%. If sellers must sell, home prices will have to decline, and lower evaluations will follow. Sure I'm not alone in my chain of thoughts.

[@CharlesArthur-fq5sx]

Buy now, home prices will not go lower. If rates drop, you can refinance

[@AlfredWilliams-ki6ri]

The government will have no choice but to print more notes and lower interest rates

[@williamDonaldson432]

Well i think, home prices will need to fall by at least 40% before the market normalizes. If you do not know whether to buy a house or not, it is best you seek guidance from a well-experienced advisor for proper portfolio allocation. So far, that’s how I’ve stayed afloat over 2 years now, amassing nearly $250K in return on investments.

[@williamDonaldson432]

Home prices will come down eventually, but for now; get your money (as much as you can) out of the housing market and get into the financial markets or gold. The new mortgage rates are crazy, add to that the recession and the fact that mortgage guidelines are getting more difficult. Home prices will need to fall by a minimum of 40% (more like 50%) before the market normalizes.If you are in cross roads or need sincere advise on the best moves to take now its best you seek an independent advisor who knows about the financial markets.

[@foreverlaura-fq4eu]

@@williamDonaldson432 Impressive can you share more info?

[@tatianastarcic]

The housing market is inflated and oversaturated with homes being on the market with astronomical price tags just stagnant for months. It is very clear that our generation will be likely one of the most devastating bubble pops in modern history. Seeking best possible ways to grow 250k into $1m+ and get a good house for retirement, I'm 54.

[@TinaJames222]

I don't think here is the place for personalized investment guidance. However, I suggest consulting with a reliable advisor like Azul to ensure appropriate retirement planning.

[@nicolasbenson009]

I’m closing in on retirement, and I have benefitted much from using a financial advisor. I didn’t really start early, so I knew the compound interest of index fund investing would not work for me. Funny how I pulled in over 80% profit than some of my peers who have been investing for many years. Maybe you should consider this too

[@sharonwinson-m8g]

I've been considering getting one, but haven't been proactive about it. Can you recommend your advisor? I could really use some assistance.

[@nicolasbenson009]

Well, there are a few out there who know what they are doing. I tried a few in the past years, but I’ve been with Melissa Terri Swayne for the last five years or so, and her returns have been pretty much amazing.

[@TinaJames222]

I located her through google, sent her an email, and scheduled a call; hopefully, she will reply because I want to start the new year off financially strong.

[@SarahBrown-h7n]

The banking situation is a reminder that Fed hikes are having an effect, even if the economy has held up so far,” It’s precisely at times like these that investors need to be on guard against the next certainty. First SVB, then signature bank and now first republic bank, these are all the signs of yet another 2008 market crash 2.0

[@Theodore-l2j]

My main concern now is how can we generate more revenue during quantitative times? I can't afford to see my savings crumble to dust.

[@Lucas-t5w4n]

Sincerely it's best to seek an advisor right now, unless you're canny yourself. As a business owner in both the service industry and eBay reseller of all product categories, I can tell you we’re in a deep recession and everyone is running out of money.

[@Jeffery-f2e]

Very true, people downplay advisors role, until burnt by their mistakes. I remember just after my layoff early 2020 amidst covid outbreak, I needed to stay afloat, hence researched for license advisors. Thankfully, I came across someone of practical knowledge, and decades of experience, my stagnant reserve of $325K has yielded nearly $1m after subsequent investments so far.

[@Fred-w7t]

Please can you leave the info of your investment advisor here? I’m in dire need for one

[@Jeffery-f2e]

Jessica Lee Horst is my FA. Just google the name and you’d find necessary deets. To be honest, I almost didn't buy the idea of letting someone handle growing my finance, but so glad I did.

[@alexguolo5872]

Lol my landlord listed his condo at 350K last year and now just relisted at 275K and not even one person came to look at it. North of Toronto

[@lambertgervaisvachon295]

Good

[@alexguolo5872]

@@lambertgervaisvachon295 He is from india

[@pikachu-mx6hi]

sounds like a deal, do you have a link?

[@alexguolo5872]

@@pikachu-mx6hi it really would be if the it wasnt a condo from 1980s with a 800 dollar a month condo fee. I even considered it myself at one point

[@alexguolo5872]

@@pikachu-mx6hi also 10k balcony assessment

[@g.a.brownetylutanic2028]

Unemployment is just beginning.

[@Observer168]

Means get ready for many more rate cuts

[@jeffotoole4509]

Bring it on baby! Everyone knows that job losses and rate cuts are tres bullish for housing prices. When Tiff is calling a bull market in housing then it’s going to be a free for all in housing. I love it. Quote. Ben Bernanke 2007 “Sub prime is contained” Always trust a central banker.

[@HaydonAshurstFamily]

Ok bud lol

[@dev4statingx90]

Historically real estate always crashes after the end of a rate hike cycle

[@peej91]

Right on Steve. Boc also identified that shelter prices are still too high. Boc knows what they did as a mistake and probably won’t do it again as policies catch up. Over leveraged and unsustainable!

[@MR007-r3f]

Dear Pumper, no matter how much you pump it won't fly.

[@naturallyaspirated8893]

Ok renter

[@MR007-r3f]

@@naturallyaspirated8893 I sleep well in your house dear landlord.

[@milhouse8166]

​@@naturallyaspirated8893 ok parasite

[@alexguolo5872]

@@MR007-r3f hes a salty condo owner trying to cope on his losses

[@lewdawg4952]

I don't think he's pumping, he's reporting data and discussing what factors affect price and what factors are currently present.

[@bayindir06]

Bottom line even if you have 100K income, you cannot even buy a condo. Somebody has to figure out how middle class can buy a house.

[@DummMoney-rr1fi]

yes you can, save more, or earn more

[@bw36]

There is no middle class

[@colebevans8939]

Condos, and single family homes were built by the millions over a hundred years with the target goal of selling to the middle class. If there is nobody to buy them they are worthless.

[@jay1645]

At say 3.5x to median income prices should be in the 350K range or lower lol with carry costs < 2K w mtg.

[@Crumsie]

Not if the real estate scalpers have anything to say about it! You'll pay off their mortgage for your whole life and you'll be happy about it!

[@Rickristian]

All real estate need a 39% devaluation.

[@jay1645]

median wage to price implies even more lol .. a wipe out is needed soon but delayed lol

[@pikachu-mx6hi]

@@Rickristian why stop at 39%?

[@FollowBen]

All real estate should be 20% of its worth. Period. And to make sure we don’t create more landlords, we need to make sure each person’s should only have a title to a house. If a person owns 2 houses, his 2nd house tax should be doubled. 3 houses, his property tax tripled.

[@pikachu-mx6hi]

@@FollowBen why not more landlords? less landlord = less rentals?

[@jay1645]

@@FollowBen How about landlords with mortgages drawn over lines of credit / relatives & friends getting together as buyers etc and contributing to the housing supply as banks and developers tell us lol ?

[@bc5810]

Most honest Vancouver realtor on KZbin. Great real-time info. These rate cuts are nothing like the pandemic rate cuts that spiked housing. The circumstances are completely different and that's what sellers don't get. There may be some FOMO buying this fall, but otherwise the market is on a declining trend for 3 months in a row.

[@MR007-r3f]

You are a baby 🍼. The way Saretsky pumps FOMO is beyond understanding of the novice folks.

[@DummMoney-rr1fi]

following how many rising price months? I'd say it's a minor correction in the march to the year 2100

[@saretsky]

Thank you

[@MR007-r3f]

@@bc5810 you must be new to his channel. His FOMO pumping style can be called as passive aggression ⭐⭐⭐. I don't blame you, it is difficult to identify especially when you are a beginner. ⭐⭐⭐

[@MR007-r3f]

@@bc5810 you must be new to his channel. His FOMO pumping style can be called as passive aggression ⭐⭐⭐. I don't blame you, it is difficult to identify especially when you are a beginner. ⭐⭐⭐

[@zefflecave9550]

The reason the rates are coming lower is because the economy is not doing well, it will raise inflation again and household debt is to the max. hence why people are not buying more.

[@anthonym9130]

And as an investor would you buy into a market where renters have been destroyed by inflation and there's the risk of having to evict them

[@quantifiablyqorrect2905]

rates go down so people think its ok to get into more debt and the can gets kicked down the road until conservates get in power and see the real book numbers.....it wont be pretty, theres another leg down

[@AnitaSridhar]

This market is for first time home buyers and end users may not be investors. It sad that people get into bidding wars and buy and when the market is slow they are scared to buy .

[@jasonplante191]

​@@AnitaSridharbecause it's over priced buy atleast 30 percent

[@2john149]

No one is buying. 😂😂😂prices are too high, a sign of a housing bubble. No jobs and the cold weather.....no one is buying 😂😂😂

[@rustyscrapper]

House prives can slightly go up snd shelter inflation goes down because the mortgage payment of the new buyer today goes down, while existing owners are locked into 5% mortgages now.

[@raymondspencer3332]

Rents are like $2500 but cost to buy is more around $4000 per month so only see rents go down if there is less gap between these two.

[@jamesholt5963]

Very Insightful. I totally agree. Key word, Stagflation.

[@2and20]

Cutting rates now was a bad idea. Frankly, Canada will never succeed without a major correction in housing. The country is drunk on leverage and land. Folks need to experience the hangover

[@Stormshfter]

Tiff also said rents would trend downward. So any investor would be subsidizing a larger monthly amount. End users represent the entire pent up demand, and they are priced out. Lol. Unemployment is trending up, I don't see the housing market doing anything.

[@krs218]

How are we going through a period of disinflation when the inflation is still positive??

[@joethompson5557]

My thought exactly. Now as mortgage interest costs come down, you might see negative numbers in that sector, but not yet. And certainly not in the overall CPI, it's still going up at 2.5% per year.

[@quixomega]

If home prices rise significantly I'm selling out and moving out of the country. This is totally ridiculous, housing prices in Europe are falling fast, so if ours go up the arbitrage will make moving over there an easy choice for me, someone who is already a dual citizen.

[@lambertgervaisvachon295]

Good plan, Buy a Castle over there. Cheeper than a Vancouver bungalow.

[@Observer168]

@@lambertgervaisvachon295the 300 year old castle is in the middle of nowhere. Might was well buy farmland in rural Canada.

[@lambertgervaisvachon295]

@@Observer168 if you sell you 2mil house , why not have a castle for 400k Eur and make your own 🍷 and enjoy life on your 100k bond interest income

[@Observer168]

@@lambertgervaisvachon295 because it’s in the middle of nowhere. Might not even have electricity or plumbing plus it will need tons of repairs.

[@SeanTheNoob]

Escalator up Elevator down

[@jay1645]

2nd not happening soon enough delayed by a decade or so lol

[@clairerobin6207]

I didn't know that's how house prices were determined. Why don't they just raise interest rates and then announce house prices will rise, and everything will be f'ing wonderful.

[@KarlBuckley-bw3vc]

"Finance Minister" what a joke 😂

[@BornDeer]

You mean part time finance minister

[@lynnspencer7753]

Why tiff even say that? How stupid.

[@bilko_4732]

25 - 30% price declines comimg end of 2025.

[@Joe-mz6dc]

Sure. Absolutely. I'd bet my life in it. /sarcasm

[@Observer168]

BOC and FED has already indicated they will do everything in their power to avoid a recession.

[@msteele2214]

We have already seen what people are willing to pay for housing. With the rates going down and with limited inventory, with developers and builders saying it’s going to take 10 years to build the inventory needed to reduce housing costs, cost of housing will either remain stagnant or go back up. Sorry bud, the time of cheap housing is over.

[@Observer168]

@@barbiebarbiedollclub5556 high interest rates cause recessions

[@tanishakellier5281]

@@msteele2214 Correct. There are many people waiting for a decrease which will create bidding wars again.

[@es1651]

Disinflation is when prices decrease. When prices keep increasing, that's inflation, maybe at lower pace.

[@mgdubya27]

Disinflation is a slowing rate of inflation. We're in stagflation, prices are going up (value of dollar decreasing), with a crap economy. We could head to deflation, but central banks will print to prevent that.

[@thanks4that261]

You're thinking of deflation I think

[@Stealyourgfinance]

Best rate I can get is 4.8% 3 year fixed. Where these 4.3% from?

[@dirtlump]

I have no clue WTF MacKlem was taking about when he said that in the presser ? other than potentially he was strictly theorizing ?.... because any NitWit could easily attach that scenario being completely unlikely when highlighted against presenting macro ? Like WTF ? No matter... the current Debt fundamental remains.... such that devoid of any absolute capitulation on rate policy such that increased Debt servicing gdi(gross domestic income) is somehow miraculously available into a consumer spending gdp contraction led recession as reallocations to higher Mortgage servicing entrenches... Real Estate valuations will be under severe deflationary pressures.

[@thanks4that261]

I had lots of friends and colleagues dating we're going back to double digit rates and they thought I was stupid when I said they're is ZERO CHANCE of that...

[@Observer168]

Zero chance the government wants a recession. Multiple rate cuts already prove that.

[@Stormshfter]

The real truth of the matter is when Tiff says we will diverge further from the US rate if needed, he's selling you a pile of crap. Further rate cuts will be in lock step with the US Fed. It's the only way to not import inflation.

[@g.a.brownetylutanic2028]

Wait for the unemployment and deflation.

[@Observer168]

Then we get even more rate cuts. Woohoo!

[@Stormshfter]

Can't spend what you can't qualify to borrow. Cash will be king.

[@Observer168]

@@Stormshfter you need a massive down payment to borrow anything so cash is always king

[@MR007-r3f]

Folks, Saretsky's FOMO pumping style can be called as passive aggression ⭐⭐⭐. I don't blame those who don't understand it. It is difficult to identify passive aggression FOMO pumping especially when you are a beginner. ⭐⭐⭐

[@saretsky]

@@MR007-r3f did you even watch the video lol

[@MR007-r3f]

@@saretsky Why? Are you asking me to waste even more of my time on your BS?

[@nunol1554]

Toronto unemployment rate is at 8%

[@DummMoney-rr1fi]

my 4 jobs don't count toward the percentage. i don't even know if I count once

[@matthewodette1406]

Low rates pulled forward years of demand and consumption. Now prices will crash back to reality even with cuts. Good luck buying when you have no job.

[@vitaliebruma5886]

Correct but rates being high for 2 years we didn’t see big drop in prices. Not so many detached homes build prices will go up with rates going down

[@johnk7267]

My wife and I sold our one-bedroom condo in GVRD at the start of June and had 2.5 months to find our next home. Sadly, we haven't seen any great opportunities for a 3-bedroom since then and finally moved out last week. Every week we're (trying to be) optimistic that something good will show up but sometimes it's hard considering the junk we're seeing getting listed for $800-900K. Are we going to get priced out or is there still hope?

[@dougiep2769]

This problem is beyond just housing. These are fundamental problems.. commercial is gonna wipe out balance sheets.. just saw a midtown building lose over 300 million since COVID... that's one office building.. sold at auction for 6 million..

[@BrendaMcLaughlin-xe5dj]

We are looking at the 1980s all over again. The real home buyers will not be buying until wages go up & inflation comes down. Only investors are buying right now. The long term home owners will wait.

[@HaydonAshurstFamily]

Lol. Investors have been virtually non existent (as buyers) for months. Virtually no investor is buying now; (but many r selling) - it’s end users that are still buying

[@Observer168]

@@BrendaMcLaughlin-xe5dj this isn’t the 80’s anymore. Vancouver and Toronto real estate is far more complex than basing everything on local incomes. Tons of foreign money, inheritance and above average salary earners. China and India used to be dirt poor in the 80’s but there are affluent millionaires everywhere. The 80’s are just a distant memory. Not as many millionaires coming from China and India as before but there are still some buying homes to settle down.

[@AnitaSridhar]

I don’t think so if anything the investors are out as the numbers don’t work

[@BrendaMcLaughlin-xe5dj]

@Observer168 Maybe, but who really wants to live in GTA if you have a young family?

[@AnitaSridhar]

Oops sorry I meant local investors ya maybe some investors from China and India.

[@g.a.brownetylutanic2028]

How clueless can Saretsky be? No one said it was going to 10% unless you were an economic illiterate. The BOC is not going to zero bound where all this housing was built. No math works for these houses & multifamily. And deflation will take its toll on the market as it did in the 82-84 . As well 92-98. Let’s see what the market looks like after the layoffs and economic deflation really gets rocking this fall winter and spring. My bet is BOC will not go back to anything near 1-2%.

[@consultservice]

Clueless is right.I just got back from Florida and go see what is happening there.Canada is overvalued by 40-50%.Insurance,property tax and overall carrying costs will more than make up the 1% drop in interest rates.I had a paid off property and couldn't keep up in Florida.Insurance companies will not be covering floods in Canada and if you have a condo you won't be able to give it away in the coming years.

[@Observer168]

@@consultservice Vancouver doesn’t have hurricanes and floods every 5 years that destroy homes.

[@Observer168]

Tons of bears were yapping about double digit interest rates

[@JFK129]

Great job Steve, I strongly believe based on what is happening in the world with a weakening economy that initially bigger cuts need to happen half percentage point not a quarter!!!!

[@Moneymanaginghacks]

Since people calling out 50% correction in housing market have no idea how much money BOC will print to dodge that crash. I will recover within months if something like that ever happens. The best 5% correction from here.

[@ts9271]

Current prices are based off 1.5% variable rates. When everyone and their dog was making money off record govt printing. 2024 is a different year than 2021

[@smartandrich1301]

The economy would likely enter a depression , characterized by reduced consumer spending, weak housing demand, and rising unemployment, leading to slower economic growth overall. With mortgage rates down but house supply up, falling sales, population growth slowing, and more jobless individuals, the housing market would see both rents and prices decline. Struggling small businesses, reduced investment, and investors pulling out would further weaken the economy, triggering deflationary pressures and potential long-term stagnation. This could create a cycle of reduced demand, lower economic output, and diminished confidence in both the housing and broader economic sectors.

[@FollowBen]

The era for big random bidding is over. Unfortunately many sellers don't want to acknowledge this and hopes the next sucker will come up and buy their overpriced houses. LOL. The market is going to be recession whether people like it or not. The government and people in real estate can choose to let it deflate slowly or continue to inflate until it explode like balloons. Unfortunately greed has blinded many people's eye sights.

[@proudcanadian1837]

It's simple math if you actually apply it. The baseline income to housing in any market in Canada, well as they say the "math doesn't math" Follow the money and data, and make your informed decision on whether to buy or rent or something else.

[@Observer168]

Chinese and Indian immigrants are still buying while Canadian born are trying to figure out the math…

[@proudcanadian1837]

@Observer168 follow the money, and it's all pretty telling.

[@Observer168]

@@proudcanadian1837yup, billions are still leaving China, Russia and India and much of it is being held in Canada.

[@proudcanadian1837]

@Observer168 bingo bango. Richmond along has hundreds of millions in suspected laundering yearly that isn't even being investigated. It's pretty obvious when you see the biggest business for the BC gov is property transfer tax at about 2 billion a year.... just as one example

[@markhunt5019]

Queen’s University ~$7,000 for tuition compared to ~$56,000 for international students. Vancouver has 23,600 International students all paying over double in tuition to Canadian students. In 2023, there were over 1,000,000 international students in Canada. Take all of this tuition money out of the Universities and Colleges and what do you think happens. (Hahaha…, I’m not talking about more dorm rooms being available for anyone who is whining about that pseudo-crisis.) Also, take all the rent that many of those students were paying and all of the purchases they were making in Canada. And you wonder what might happen in the Canada economy. Oh, and then just cut immigration in general. And then, fake-news a lack of supply in housing. Ok, check the January 2025 numbers. But before you do. Make a solid prediction now. Oh, almost forgot to mention… international student enrolment is down 54% already this year. If a group of factories laid off 500,000 workers can you imagine? And the difference between $7,000 and $56,000 is equal to some people wages for a year. That’s one student paying the wages…

[@izzy2116]

The unemployment rate is higher than "they" are telling you.

[@audittheauditors]

The jobs lost or people who are looking for work are mostly jobs that are low paying ones. Those individuals are not and were never capable of purchasing a home. They're renters.

[@amorphousblob]

Ironically, I know multiple people who worked minimum wage in the 90s who could afford to buy a house. Wages just haven't kept up. Probably part of why people nowadays can't afford anything but a slum shack if they work minimum wage.

[@alexguolo5872]

I live in Simcoe county and the city will loan you up to 50K or 10%. Id say that would bring alot of renter into the markets

[@nickzivs]

Bank of Canada cuts. Says currency value could fall?

[@qiang8410]

In Vancouver and toronto real estates are now financial products being traded among rich people only. If you can afford, just join the club. Canadian government brought in more rich highly skilled immigrants than the limited supplies. when interest is low enough inventory will be gone quickly. Most of the money to buy properties in vancouver or GTV comes from somewhere else. Thats the reality. The only solution is to leave and move to somewhere cheaper. Canada is a large country.

[@saretsky]

This is pretty true

[@tdiddy8989]

Steve - good analysis. However, do your comments on a period of stagnation, get altered , if the conservatives are in power come early to mid spring.

[@saretsky]

What are they going to change? Turning an economy around is no quick easy fix

[@brianpereira7483]

Nope no higher prices as helicopter fiscal expansion happened last time, its over even with these already depressed rates.

[@keepingitsimple88]

I predict the markets are going to rip higher with the rate cuts...

[@fillmorehillmore8239]

Earnings season(s) may change that.

[@EmilyHamsterLover]

Its a dead cat bounce. Rates will go 10% in a year. After more people get sucked into buying condo

[@alexgardner3125]

If you managed to say this with a straight face, I commend you

[@Prairieshutterbug64]

I'm always surprised when the Liberals take credit for lower interest rates saying their policies are working. The rates are going down because unemployment is up and the economy is weak. Also I don't think the conservatives should be promising lower rates either. Rate reductions typically precede a recession.

[@lynnspencer7753]

Push hard enough to lower their price to sell? Time will tell.

[@jay1645]

Can. real estate has been whistling past the graveyard but has not collapsed yet and am surprised lol. Minsky moment still awaited lol

[@marcgatto9675]

I agree that we are actually in recession.

[@Dube8817]

People are getting 3 year fixed mortgages at 4.3%?

[@saretsky]

If you’re a strong borrower yes

[@baseline6786]

When rates were 3.5. Home prices did go up 30-40k per year. Now add millions of more ppl since 2019.

[@Jo-mf2vu]

There were jobs back then, not any more. Those millions of immigrants can't find work that gets them out of a shared room in a basement.

[@baseline6786]

@@Jo-mf2vu those be the international student. Many people are here waiting to buy a home at the first sign of prices going up. Inflation has made many ppl poor, yet others it doesn't bother them and are waiting to buy.

[@Observer168]

@@Jo-mf2vujobs? Like the UBC student that owns 7 mansions? Does she need a job?

[@g.a.brownetylutanic2028]

It’s not over. This is first step.

[@thesynonymist5875]

MMT in full affect

[@equestrian71]

Calls Jagmeet Singh a sellout, but was promoting crypto to his followers. Short term memory. Do you have any integrity?

[@saretsky]

I was promoting crypto? I’m long bitcoin if that’s what you’re asking. Best performing asset over the past decade so I’m not mad about it

[@hill4377]

So why is inventory at a decade high and people are lowing the prices? If your assertion housing prices won't drop there sure seem to be alot of people selling who don't believe you. Rest assured. The more people like you and the bank of Canada talk about hosing prices not going down. The more real the opposite is. Just like your buddy Tiff said rates will be low for a very very long time. 18 months later he looked like a moron. Use your head. Stop talking your book.

[@Observer168]

@@hill4377 remember what you said 18 months from now. The market will be very different from today.

[@Relaxlifeisshort2]

There is enough money out there not all people are losing thier jobs So demand will be bigger On single family homes If you are secure on your job and need to buy this is the time to buy. Single family homes i am saying NOT condos.

[@g.a.brownetylutanic2028]

Job security is going to collapse with unsustainable economy . Just wait for the wash outs.

[@saretsky]

Fair

[@nii-san5485]

gonna be a race to the bottom with the inventory bubble bursting as rates drop

[@jamesheron2282]

⁠there are less than 10 million people with a net worth of 1 million dollars or more in China and India combined. The rest of Asia has only 1 million millionaires. The Middle East has even fewer and Africa has even fewer than them (S.America is negligible as is Russia). To know where Canadian house prices are going is to see the asset growth (or decline) in China and India as the western world holds the most millionaires who have global investors with easy mobility of assets. China is losing 2 million people per year due to an aging population that is in terminal decline that will accelerate rapidly. China’s assets including housing and commodities are losing value rapidly as consumption slows due to aging and declining population and now western countries are barricading against dumping excess onto the rest of the world. India’s economic policy and rapid population growth is stagnating and India too will head into population decline in 20 years but is slowing rapidly already with its Achilles heel being an economy that has debt servicing growing to eye watering levels where the average Indian has already felt the wrath turn downwards as it accelerates downhill over the next decade or two due to corrupt financials starting to bear their rotten fruit. There aren’t the wealth gainers around the world that we saw as China and India rose in the past 30 years. They don’t have service economies that can reach escape velocity and so they have both peaked in per person production and wealth and are quickly reversing those gains. If a house is listed for $1 more than what a bank will lend based on fundamentals then n that house won’t sell. The most likely path is the BOC rapidly reducing rates further while M2 money supply increases devaluing the dollar further stagnating house prices while everyone makes more money over time but feels poorer because the CAD has lost so much value. Dollar devaluation and stagnant pricing means houses eventually have lost their value even if the price stays the same or even goes up slightly. We’ve run out of rope to get the increases seen over the past 30 years because China and India are receding causing a world wide recession.

[@cavelleardiel]

Where are you getting your numbers from for millionaires in China and India? When you say millionaires are you using the American dollar as a reference? What I have from you is very interesting. Thank you.

[@Observer168]

China ranks #2 in the world in number of millionaires after USA not including Hong Kong. China alone has over 6 million. Surprisingly Canada ranks #7 in the world thanks to all the millionaire immigrants. Canada also doesn’t have enough homes for sale for even a fraction of China’s or India’s millionaires. United States * 24,480,000 China * 6,190,000 Japan * 3,366,000 United Kingdom * 2,849,000 France * 2,796,000 Germany * 2,683,000 Canada * 2,291,000 Australia * 2,177,000 Italy * 1,413,000 South Korea * 1,290,000 Switzerland * 1,152,000 Netherlands * 1,149,000 Spain * 1,132,000 Taiwan * 869,000 1 India * 796,000 Hong Kong 632,000

[@Observer168]

@@cavelleardielChina ranks #2 in the world in number of millionaires . Canada is ranked #7

[@Observer168]

Just follow where manufacturers are moving. Next new millionaires are Mexico, Vietnam and rest of South East Asia.

[@Observer168]

Forget about 10 million millionaires. There are even 100,000 new homes for sale.

[@tylerrobdavis]

Overall I just dont get it. For investors, numbers don't math. First time buyers are having a hard time keeping up. Where is the floor then?

[@Observer168]

The world has never had so many rich people in human history. Yes, average wages haven’t kept up but millions have still came out of poverty in China, India, Russia and Middle East to become millionaires that purchased real estate all over the world.

[@Observer168]

@@barbiebarbiedollclub5556 almost every major city in the world is expensive

[@Observer168]

@@barbiebarbiedollclub5556every major city in the world is expensive. Only areas around Vancouver and Toronto are expensive

[@jamesheron2282]

@@Observer168there are less than 10 million people with a net worth of 1 million dollars or more in China and India combined. The rest of Asia has only 1 million millionaires. The Middle East has even fewer and Africa has even fewer than them (S.America is negligible as is Russia). To know where Canadian house prices are going is to see the asset growth (or decline) in China and India as the western world holds the most millionaires who have global investors with easy mobility of assets. China is losing 2 million people per year due to an aging population that is in terminal decline that will accelerate rapidly. China’s assets including housing and commodities are losing value rapidly as consumption slows due to aging and declining population and now western countries are barricading against dumping excess onto the rest of the world. India’s economic policy and rapid population growth is stagnating and India too will head into population decline in 20 years but is slowing rapidly already with its Achilles heel being an economy that has debt servicing growing to eye watering levels where the average Indian has already felt the wrath turn downwards as it accelerates downhill over the next decade or two due to corrupt financials starting to bear their rotten fruit. There aren’t the wealth gainers around the world that we saw as China and India rose in the past 30 years. They don’t have service economies that can reach escape velocity and so they have both peaked in per person production and wealth and are quickly reversing those gains. If a house is listed for $1 more than what a bank will lend based on fundamentals then n that house won’t sell. The most likely path is the BOC rapidly reducing rates further while M2 money supply increases devaluing the dollar further stagnating house prices while everyone makes more money over time but feels poorer because the CAD has lost so much value. Dollar devaluation and stagnant pricing means houses eventually have lost their value even if the price stays the same or even goes up slightly. We’ve run out of rope to get the increases seen over the past 30 years because China and India are receding causing a world wide recession.

[@jshin5991]

Everyone will lose money but HOUSING MARKET!!!!!!!!! Is this what that stupid BOC guy saying?

[@vert911]

Prices are about to start rising again. Few more cuts and it will be bonkers.

[@Plumber60423]

Wait til people start buying and then the market gets hit with low new construction numbers. Low presales of 2023-2024 will be bad for 2026-2027 housing inventory

[@fillmorehillmore8239]

Assuming Canada isnt at 10% unemployment.

[@MR007-r3f]

@@vert911 🤣🤣🤣

[@Plumber60423]

@@fillmorehillmore8239 Yeah who knows maybe if unemployment goes too high. Only people who own houses will be able to purchase more property

[@Ricardo-gs2ce]

I'm confident that house prices will rise as interest rates continue to drop. Rate cuts typically lead to job growth, and with the ongoing housing shortage expected to persist over the next two years, demand will keep driving prices higher. Is common sense how can we not see it? Reason why government introduce the housing start program. Common sense people.

[@sean86868]

the pri

[@2john149]

Are you are realtor ?

[@memenone501]

I think with all the supply in condo market and soft labor market we may see prices sideways while rate come down for first half off 2025.

[@5ayes12]

at the rate the canadian dollar is plunging we'll all be prisoners again

[@rickfellman91]

World unemployment rates

[@pdmotoadventure]

I'm confused by all these narratives. When I moved to the Vancouver area 4 years ago my rent was $2200. If I had to rent the same place now I'd be around $3500. Single family prices went up 20% last year where I live. There are countless condos coming onto the market as rental stock- but none cost less than a million, so I see rent only increasing.

[@milhouse8166]

That's because you're only looking backwards

[@Observer168]

Looks like all the bears are wrong again. People said there will be no rate cuts this year but we are already on the 3rd cut with 1-2 more by the end of the year. Rental rates aren’t crashing and home prices in Vancouver and Toronto are still holding strong even with weak sales. I think the worst is already over unless we get another black swan event. Looks like the BOC and FED are willing to do anything to avoid a recession.

[@ethimself5064]

Unemployment rate - month or so ago the US was 4.5. Although the US was always lower

[@GearsDemon]

Imagine being a younger worker and being laid off now. Good luck finding a replacement job if it's lower skilled work.

[@Observer168]

Ironically it’s the younger workers asking for a housing crash but what they got were layoffs

[@quantifiablyqorrect2905]

The numbers will never makes sense, especially when the cities charge more and more for permits and development taxes

[@arctichero1]

6uild 6ack 6etter

[@DJRS2178]

Lol still believing govs and politicians? Go look up ben bernanke talking before 2008 gfc.

[@gibstr]

2024 Sellers - "Don't even know who Tiff Macklem is" ... .. 2020 Buyers - "Tiff Macklem told us rates will stay low".... Which is it? Comical.

[@BoomBoomBoom2023]

🤣🤣

[@JessT-vg7ib]

I hope house prices rise a lot.

[@amorphousblob]

Good luck renting out your horde to someone if rent is $3k month to pay off your mortgage.

[@amorphousblob]

Anyways, anyone with an ounce of memory would know people used to buy homes with 12-13% mortgages, but could still afford it because the principle was low. High home costs AND high mortgages, on the other hand, is a symptom of a sick system.

[@universalremoteview]

who cares they could lower the interest rate to zero and ill never invest again in a home simply because it will be in the back of my mind when will they raise it again and how much for how long. I watched to many people lose there homes because of these interest rates skyrocketing the system cannot be trusted to keep your house for life even if its paid for taxes are skyrocketing so between interest rates and taxes why bother. move to a more respectable country with respectable people is the better option there homes are affordable.

[@stephanienguyen6992]

Go Build More DEBTS.....