Best Trading Indicator To Build A Strategy Upon (100 Year Back Test!)

[@FinancialWisdom]

My Brokerage Account (Interactive Brokers) - bit.ly/3UGvn1U My Breakout Scanner - bit.ly/3ea6sl8 Join/Follow my trades - www.financialwisdomtv.com/service My Forum - www.financialwisdomTV.com/forum My Strategy Blueprint - www.financialwisdomtv.com/plans-pricing Stockopedia 25% Discount - bit.ly/2YIcAIn Trading Simulator - www.financialwisdomtv.com/shop

[@adakhochalai]

Kindly try Exiting below 200ma Re-enter above 50ma

[@reggaefan2700]

9:33 This analysis ties in with Nassim Taleb's concept of Fat Tails, i.e., remove fat tails (extreme negative drawdowns) and limit your risk. The equity curve differences also speak to Spitznagle's studies on geometric returns versus average returns, i.e., again the main factor is limiting massive drawdowns which should results in a higher return over time.

[@HaploPrime]

Do you have a link to the study?

[@reggaefan2700]

@@HaploPrime Nicholas Nassim Taleb's book "The Black Swan" and Mark Spitznagle's book "Safe Haven."

[@ForexToProfits]

It's not mentioned if it was a sma or an ema that is used? Anyone know?

[@rune54321]

Absolutely love these data driven videos. The rest of your videos are great too, but these are my favorite! Thank you very much. You've got one of my absolute favorite youtube channels :)

[@FinancialWisdom]

You're very welcome!

[@asdfghasdfgh5899]

@@FinancialWisdom Which timeframe do you use?

[@stelzalol]

@@FinancialWisdom Thank you for the fantastic video but wouldn't the tax implications of buying selling constantly skew the true net returns?

[@kaintman]

Lets take a latest example of any index, nowadays 10 Month MA way below the price and I want to invest, so should we wait index price to touch 10 Month MA. Thanx in advance

[@anniezeng4587]

Instead of trying to predict whether or not we’re going into more recession and keep losing your money, a better strategy is simply having a portfolio that’s well prepared for any eventually, that’s how some folks' been averaging 150K every quarter according to Bloomberg.

[@africanboi4542]

I’m just doing everything wrong with my portfolio, 25% of my portfolio is in the red and I really don’t know how long I can stomach the losses. I’m beginning to reach a breaking point.

[@cloudyblaze7916]

I do feel your pain mate, I’d suggest you look into passive index fund investing and learn some more. For me,I had my share of ups and downs when I first started looking for a consistent passive income so I hired an expert advisor for aid, and following her advice, I poured $30k in value stocks and digital assets,Up 200k so far and pretty sure I'm ready for whatever comes

[@adenmall7596]

@@cloudyblaze7916 that's actually quite impressive, I could use some Info on your FA, I am looking to make a change on my finances this year as well.

[@cloudyblaze7916]

@@adenmall7596 Having an expert is essential for portfolio diversification. My advisor is "ELEANOR ANNETTE ECKHAUS” who is easily searchable and has extensive knowledge of the financial markets.

[@lucianoboccedi]

Thank you for sharing; I will need all the help I can get because I recently sold some of my assets in order to invest in the stock market.

[@logisticsdelivery]

The most important thing that should be on everyone mind currently should be to invest in different sources of income that doesn't depend on the government. Especially with the current economic crisis around the word. This is still a good time to invest in various stoc,ks, Gold, silver and digital currencies.

[@caroamira]

The key to big returns is not big moving stoc,ks. It's managing risk in relationship to reward. Having the correct size on and turning your edge as many times as necessary to reach your goal. That holds true from long term investng to day trading.

[@martinerJuhel1]

Even with the right technique and assets some investrs would still make more than others, as an investr, you should’ve known that by now, nothing beats experience and that’s final, personally I had to reach out to a maket analyst for guidance which is how I was able to grow my account close to a million, withdraw my proft right before the correction and now I’m buying again

[@EvanQuiel4]

@@martinerJuhel1That's impressive! I could really use the expertise of this advisors, my portfolio has been down bad....who’s the person guiding you ?

[@martinerJuhel1]

@@EvanQuiel4 The coach I use is actually quite known, Susan Lorraine Curry. She has a wide presence on the web, so you can just search her.

[@kortyEdna825]

I came here to get an idea of how to trade utilizing A.I trading bot after hearing a guy on a podcast talk about the importance of A.I trading bot and how he made $660,000 in 6 months from $50,000. This video has helped to clarify a few things for me, but I'm still puzzled, I'm a rookie, and I'm open to suggestions.

[@carssimplified2195]

@Brilliantrans Interesting. I have a lump sum that does absolutely nothing to my bank account, I want to start something with that. You seem to be doing very well, how can i reach out to this investment-adviser if you don't mind putting me to the right direction?

[@carssimplified2195]

@Brilliantrans Thank you for this tip. It was easy to find your coach. Did my due diligence on her before scheduling a phone call with her. She seems proficient considering her resume.

[@JarredCodyXPO]

What podcast did you listen to can you link it??

[@mkaberli614]

Sucker!@@carssimplified2195

[@tonytube7407]

@Brilliantrans Can you share this investment advisor's contact info. thanks,

[@viewfromthehighchairr]

Insightful video. I just want to know best how people split their pay, how much of it goes into savings, spendings or investments. I'm 27, and earn nothing less $150k per year, but nothing to show for it yet.

[@devereauxjnr]

Currently, my primary worry is how to increase revenue during periods of quantitative easing. I cannot afford to witness my savings dwindle away.

[@AlbertGReene-p8w]

@@devereauxjnr Factos!! Since the market became extremely volatile and pressure increased (I should be retiring in 17 months), I took the decision to work closely with a financial advisor. It has already been 9 months and counting, and I have made approximately 600K net from all of my holdings.

[@SkepticalMechanic-l9x]

@@AlbertGReene-p8w That's impressive! I could really use the expertise of this advisor.

[@AlbertGReene-p8w]

@@SkepticalMechanic-l9x credits to NICOLE DESIREE SIMON, one of the best portfolio manager;s out there. she;s well known, you should look her up

[@SkepticalMechanic-l9x]

@@AlbertGReene-p8w Thanks for the info, i found her website and sent a message hopefully she replies soon.

[@Andysfishing]

I would like to see this Re calculated with dividend payments included.

[@fatcapital88]

Dumb question... there's 20-22 weekdays in a month, so a 10 month SMA is equivalent to a ~210 day SMA right? Basically the same thing? I guess the difference is that the 200 day would be more volatile since it would be more like an active trailing average vs. the 10 month waiting for a month to close? Is that right, or do they both trail on daily changes?

[@paulmorales390]

This makes sense, the only question i would have is the amount of taxes you would have to pay for capital gains vs buy and holding where no tax is paid on unrealized profits.

[@Dan16673]

do it in a retirement account

[@jamesfriedrich1150]

Warren Buffet said we should keep buying through thick and thin especially through thin as American businesses are going to do well, I have currently set aside about $253k to put in the market. Any ideas how to go about that ?

[@roberttaylor662]

Find quality stocks that have long term potential, and ride with those stocks. I have found it takes someone who is very familiar with the market to make such good picks.

[@Ogden1]

Please can you leave the info of your investment advisor here? I’m in dire need for one.

[@rebeccaartgallary]

Thank you for this tip. it was easy to find your coach. Did my due diligence on her before scheduling a phone call with her. She seems proficient considering her resume.

[@JustinCase-em6ql]

Buy Warren Buffett (Berkshire Hathaway), and/or an S&P 500 index

[@JustinCase-em6ql]

Staples and utilities drop down much less, but they grow a lot less, too. If you don't have the stomach for drops, don't be fully in stocks, especially growth stocks.

[@michaeljohnson6597]

New sub. Very informative video! I've been using the 12 month SMA as outlined by Bulkowski. For those of us that don't have a lot of free time this approach is the way to go.

[@styilmaz1980]

I use a similar strategy for my retirement account. Mine is the weekly chart for more control and the 52 WK MA.

[@carmindaAntunes]

We are already in the big crash, Inflation is a catastrophe. This CPI report is a colossal failure. To bring the housing market to a halt, the FED will have to pull all the stops. The unfortunate issue is that other markets are being decimated. If you want to stay green, you have to rely on a lot of diversification. Currently up 14% and being careful. Still a better deal than leaving it in a savings or checking account yielding 0-1 percent interest.

[@Wellingtonluzia3]

People believe their currency has the worth it does because they have no other option. Even in a hyper-inflationary environment, individuals must continue to use their hyperinflationary currency since they likely have minimal access to other currencies or gold/silver coins.

[@mohammeddumadi8323]

Inflation is gradually going to become part of us and due to that fact any money you keep in cash or in a low-interest account declines in value each year. Investing is the only way to make your money grow and unless you have an exceptionally high income, investing is the only way most people will ever have enough money to retire.

[@Brendavonrohr4]

@@mohammeddumadi8323 You are right! I diversified my 450K portfolio across various market with the aid of an investment coach, I have been able to generate a little bit above 1.3m in net profit across high dividend yield stocks, ETF and bonds during this red season.

[@Antoniovieira2792]

@@Brendavonrohr4 How can I reach out to this coach? because I'm seeking for a more effective investment approach How good is this person at portfolio diversification, particularly with regard to digital assets?

[@jamesdrew296]

@@Brendavonrohr4 Please I'm very much interested. How can I get touch with this coach, i really want to give her a try.

[@JohnTheTechy]

Would be nice to see a back test 200 day / 10 month moving average but using the FTSE 100 (or FTSE 350) index.

[@RockTheCage55]

I would probably add some additional criteria (thats how i roll :)). I would only buy on at least "flatening" or a better "uptrending" 200day/10month MA (or at least look at the 50 day to make sure its not declining) That would hopefully help from gettting wipsawed out.

[@selftrue670]

Indeed. It really helps to have at least one other indicator (when the 200MA is flattish) to minimize whipsaws.

[@desafinad0]

@@selftrue670 I recommend the 10-Mo HMA

[@GillerHeston]

I have a 3 fund portfolio consisting of 33% S&P, 33% Total stock, and 33% international. I feel a need to focus on complete growth so I went 100% stocks, but does the SP500 and TSM overlap too much to make sense holding both? However I’ve been in the red for a month now. I work hard for my money, so investing is making me a nervous sad wreck. I don’t know if I should sell everything, sit and just wait but watching my portfolio of $450k dwindle away is such an eye -sore.

[@rogerwheelers4322]

There are many other interesting stocks in many industries that you might follow. You don't have to act on every forecast, so I'll suggest that you work with a financial advisor who can help you choose the best times to purchase and sell the shares or ETFs you want to acquire.

[@joshbarney114]

I agree, that's the more reason I prefer my day to day investment decisions being guided by an advisor seeing that their entire skillset is built around going long and short at the same time both employing risk for its asymmetrical upside and laying off risk as a hedge against the inevitable downward turns, coupled with the exclusive information/analysis they have, it's near impossible to not out-perform, been using my advisor for over 2years+ and I've netted over 2.8million.

[@FabioOdelega876]

@@joshbarney114 I actually subscribed for a few trading courses but it didn't help much, been getting suggestions to use a proper financial advisor, how did you go about touching base with your coach?

[@joshbarney114]

@@FabioOdelega876 Do your due diligence and opt for one that has tactics to help your portfolio continue consistent and steady growth. “Colleen Janie Towe” is accountable for the success of my portfolio, and I believe she has the qualifications and expertise to accomplish your objectives.

[@FabioOdelega876]

@@joshbarney114 Thank you for this tip , I must say Colleen, appears to be quite knowledgeable. After coming across her webpage, I thoroughly went through her resume, and I must say, it was quite impressive. I reached out to her, and I have booked a session with her.

[@AsiaStreet365]

Excellent content again and I always learn a lot from your productions. Quick question. When you say the 10 month MA do you mean a monthly chart with a 10 MA or a monthly chart with a 210 MA.

[@FinancialWisdom]

Monthly chart in this example

[@James-100]

Always good to see Moving Average strategies in action.

[@gf5050]

Brilliant vid as usual. Been a professional trader for 20 yrs and it s always such a good thing to get reminded such important and crucial concepts… 👌 you noobies are lucky to have access to this!

[@FinancialWisdom]

Thanks gf5050

[@luckytc5115]

Thank you

[@birajbarman8964]

Overflow of knowledge. It's really confusing sometimes

[@Nayr747]

Does this strategy still outperform the market when you factor in taxes?

[@smallpotatoe9487]

Love your strategy videos. One can make a fortune out of it, if followed properly

[@Fayruzshula]

I came here to Learn how to trade after listening to a guy on radio talk about the importance of investing and how he made $460,000 in 4 months from $160k. Some how this video as help shield light on something’s. But I’m Confused about the current market violatrilty I’m new and I’m open to ideas..

[@asihat4335]

Investing in stocks is a good idea a good trading system is would put u many days of success

[@lemriknos2144]

Brenda Mildred Jones is an expert and a guru in describing the trade terms to the newbie, and with my portfolio growing firmly with her simple trade guide, therefore I hold no reservation in recommending her as a mentor

[@thechefskitchenservices]

@@lemriknos2144 You're right, Brenda Mildred Jones is an expert, she made everything for me. A few weeks prior to this course,I had minimal knowledge environment, however, I can now happily say that I am confident with her analysis and market structure. I would strongly recommend Brenda Mildred Jones signal and strategy to anyone who would like a boost in conference when trading and analyzing the markets.

[@rileybow8030]

Don't do business with anyone who doesn't have a fiduciary duty

[@BillyJ10]

Very interesting. I trade options but want park my money in ISPY, covered call selling ETF. I will definitely add this to my radar

[@MrWatcher-lk2rl]

Love the content man, I've learned much from you. Seems like there are an awful lot of bot spammers about various financial investor mentors and scams though. Be careful out there fellow viewers.

[@vesamikkola3824]

This is very simple and good stuff. Thank you.

[@FinancialWisdom]

You're welcome!

[@viswanathaluri]

This seems to be a good strategy to balance emotional quotient. Would be interested how SIP and buying dips adds to thus fundamental strategy? Eg. Exit when the indicator suggests so and also do some accumulation with smaller investments. Enter again when the indicator suggest Buy and put in all the amount that was sitting on cash.

[@whoiswho22]

And it shows again, how simple rules can perform very well as long we are consistent with it. Thank you so much or for your center, my friends and I love your easy to understand and most important... Easy to apply.. content!

[@TheGoatInvests]

I actually talk about using a 200-day moving average on index funds in my book (the 10-month is a monthly equivalent of the 200-day). Using a 200-day MA to time indices puts up essentially the same returns as buy and hold with drawdowns less than half as big as buy and hold.

[@nandakishore671]

But 10m ma reduces whipsaws

[@TheGoatInvests]

@@nandakishore671 I agree.

[@Fablogini]

10 months is 301 days?

[@nandakishore671]

@@Fablogini no you are not considering weekends and holidays

[@Fablogini]

@@nandakishore671 so how many days is 10 months?

[@wboquist]

Would it be possible for you to produce a similar video evaluating the value of the 12 month SMA, applied with these two rules: 1. get out when the price of the index at the close of the month is below the 12 month SMA, 2) get back in when the price of the index at the close of the month is above the 12 month SMA for two consecutive months? Thanks.

[@rodneyfungus8249]

Why don’t you test it yourself?

[@hannahdonald9071]

A crash in the stock or real estate markets has less of an immediate impact on people's standard of living than inflation or currency devaluation. That the market is so negative at the moment shouldn't be shocking. If we are to survive in this economy, we need assistance right away. The ETF and stock markets are still quite volatile, just like the property market. Now all that's left of my $370K portfolio is ruins.

[@mcginnnavraj4201]

I prefer to seek the advice of financial consultants when making my daily investment decisions, especially since their expertise is focused on short- and long-term holdings for profit realisation and because of their specific research, it is almost difficult for them to underperform. I've been investing with my consultant for just over two years, and during that time we have already generated sizeable net profits.

[@trazzpalmer3199]

That does make a lot of sense, unlike us, you seem to have the Market figured out. Who is this consultant?

[@mcginnnavraj4201]

@@trazzpalmer3199 Salvatore Fortunato Sofia, a well-known expert in her field, is my financial consultant. Her website is where you may get in touch with her. She is a great resource for anyone looking to understand the financial market because of her extensive experience.

[@graceocean8323]

Found her webpage by looking up her name online. She seems very proficient, scheduled a call to use her services.

[@mudassar1]

#1 - 200 Day Simple Moving Average Buy: when price closes above 200 SMA. Sell: when price closes below 200 SMA. Results are incredible, helps avoid major crashes #2 - 10 Month Simple Moving Average (2:45) Buy: when price closes above 10 Month SMA. Sell: when price closes below 10 Month SMA. Which one is better? overlaying 10 Month SMA over 200 Day SMA show that both reach the same end result. However 10 Month SMA is rather less volatile. From the period 1901 to 2011, $100 invested via Buy & Hold strategy would compounded up being just above $2M. Whereas 10 Month MA would compound $100 to just above $5M. Buy & Hold had a volatility of 17.87% whereas 10 Month MA had volatility of only 11.9%, avoiding many of the major declines. 5:05 : worst years in comparison average loss in 10 worst years was 27.89% while in same months, 10 Month MA average loss was only 2.20%.

[@Zimbant]

Great summary. thanks.

[@ForwardThinkingIncome]

Someone took time to make a video to share information. In return when people watch the video it helps the person making the video.

[@mudassar1]

@@ForwardThinkingIncome You are correct. However this summary is for ME. I come back to this video again and again.

[@SuperMaxxxey]

This is Precisely what i'm looking for Back Tested Strategies. Thanks! Please do some intraday Strategies too.

[@FinancialWisdom]

More to come!

[@liakella]

Very well done video, Easily explained and easy to understand

[@Lmi.N]

It's about buying the best price possible, but it's even more about What is the price u are getting when u want to sell, while holding it doesn't matter if it is in Profit or loss, it's all about the time of exit, Price action is most important, indicators just give an overall perspective, nothing is 100% sure, u need luck some times and proper knowledge, intellect for decision making, the more experience u have the better but only if u learn from it.

[@evelynm2530]

Using the 30 day WEEKLY moving average for the q's...works great

[@gulee]

this strategy works really well with ETFs or mutual funds in IRA and 401k accounts.

[@Bubs0271]

Another banger! Thank you for your videos. Each one is highly anticipated.

[@sanfrancisco8479]

Great videos thanks, I have some observations on moving average techniques. They all look very convincing on the chart because one imagines buying and selling at the crossover price, however in reality you have to trade at the closing price which often means buying high and selling low. For example, consider the last two years on SPY: following the 10 month moving average system you would have sold in Feb 2022 at 437, bought in March at 452 then sold again in April at 412. Then you buy back in November 2022 at 408 gaining 1% but give back 6% by selling in December at 382 and buying again in Jan 2023 at 406. Overall you would be down 10% compared to 2% holding right through the bear market. Another example, I ran a 30 year backtest on the 10 vs 20 weekly EMA crossover and got a 700% gain - not bad but buy and hold gives 814%. I have tried dozens of moving average combinations and yet to find one that works over the long term. I see other viewers have made similar comments and your answer is that these indicators give trading windows not buy and sell signals. That's fine but it's not what the videos imply. Happy to share my spreadsheets, I would love to be proved wrong.

[@jodhvirsingh8677]

You might include an added step for safety of capital...buy at the retests..buy when the crossover point is retested with lower volume. This would filter out the bad breakouts.. hopefully this helps.

[@PhilSommer2]

I began my investment journey at the age of 33, primarily through hard work and dedication. I am to share that my passive income exceeded $100k in a single month for the first time. This success reinforces the importance of the advice mentioned earlier. It is not about achieving quick wealth, but rather ensuring long-term financial prosperity.

[@SophiaBint-wj8wn]

Investors should exercise caution with their exposure and exercise caution when considering new investments, particularly during periods of inflation. It is advisable to seek guidance from a professional or trusted advisor in order to navigate this recession and achieve potential high yields.

[@Jessicatorres_768]

This is superb! Information, as a noob it gets quite to handle all of this and staying informed is a major cause, how do you go about this are you a pro investor?

[@PhilSommer2]

Through closely monitoring the performance of my portfolio, I have witnessed a remarkable growth of $500k in just the past two quarters. This experience has shed light on why experienced traders are able to generate substantial returns even in lesser-known markets. It is safe to say that this bold decision has been one of the most impactful choices I have made recently.

[@KatherineAnderson-lm8bw]

wow that’s stirring! Do you mind connecting me to your advisor please. I desperately need one to diversified my portfolio.

[@blessingpaul5484]

Do you mind sharing info on the adviser who assisted you? I’m 40 now and would love to grow my stock portfolio and plan my retirement.

[@Yetified_Mayhem]

Great content. I position long with more size once the market can hold a 10w over rising 30w..

[@tonynunez6539]

Can you do some research on the Bollinger bands, MACD, and stochastic indicators and how the market compares to following when they hit highs and lows?

[@ranjithrs6]

Best statergies are always simple,again a wonderful content from you,thanks

[@FinancialWisdom]

Glad you think so!

[@noelmaskii25]

This strategy is exactly what I was looking for!! Thank you 🙏

[@FinancialWisdom]

Thanks for watching

[@Conorallan]

This is incredible. To chart the 10 month MA, would you input it as a 304 day SMA?

[@FinancialWisdom]

Just use the monthly chart

[@mahikelkar]

Whethet 10 month moving average available in trading view platform

[@sethaldrich6902]

I wonder what it would look like if you shorted when it dropped below instead of sitting in cash

[@R_M.P]

Was thinking the same thing.

[@cedricschwarz]

in my jurisdiction i have to pay taxes for my gains as soon as i sell. would be interesting to compare buy and hold against 10m ma including taxes.

[@blackdave2211]

True. I also have a tax rate of 25% everytime I sell. Would be of great interest to me to see the effect on this strategy

[@dominicnocera9039]

You're first sentence is correct - this is the most important stock video . My question is : does this strategy work for leveraged etf's that always decline over long periods ( because they reset daily) , but may rise drastically over some shorter periods ? JNUG is a good example. However, AGQ , although a leveraged etf, does not exhibit the long term decline. I'm curious if you think the 10 month rule would still apply to leveraged, declining etf's in general, and these two etf's in particular. I am a paying subscriber, as well. thank you for any time you can give to this question.

[@simonm.5236]

Hi Dominic. I have the same question. Did you get an answer? If you did, would you be so kind to share it? I am looking into UPRO and can't see/understand the downside risk if you strictly follow the MA(10) on monthly chart. Thx in advance.

[@dominicnocera9039]

@@simonm.5236 hi Simon, yes, I did get an answer. The answer was, whatever the ETF is trying to track, check the movie averages on that stock, instead. So for instance, if you’re trading in gold through Jung (which tracks gold miners), find an ETF, that tracks the minors precisely, and does not exhibit the depreciating nature. I like to trade AGQ, which is a leveraged, silver, ETF, and the reason I like to trade it, is because it does not exhibit the depreciating long-term effects. Compare a 10 year chart of AGQ versus Jung, and you’ll see what I mean. This means that a GQ could be held over long-term, whereas J nog could be more dangerous, if held for more than a few months at a time. Thanks for the comment. As a semi beginner and all of this, I’m always looking for investment conversations.

[@dominicnocera9039]

@@simonm.5236 hi again, Simon, I checked into you pro and it’s a leverage etf, just like TQQQ for the NASDAQ. TQQQ increases over time, with three times the volatility. But if you have the stomach for that, it would be an interesting long-term experiment, but only with small amounts of experiment or paper trading. I don’t give investment advice by the way, but, I thought of experimenting with TQQQ over the long term, once I know that QQQ has made a breakout. That might not happen for you or two, according to some experts.

[@simonm.5236]

@@dominicnocera9039 thanks for your reply. I am trying to use s&p 500 tracking and it looks like 2x-leverage makes more sense for this strategy, especially if trading within tax-free account, so in my case instead of UPRO I would have to consider SSO

[@TyDenHartog]

Great info! How does dollar cost averaging compare to the 10 month MA approach? I would think the results of this would definitely depend on whether you're investing a lump some at the beginning, or investing a certain amount each month. If monthly, those huge drops in the market would be incredible times to be investing with the S&P on sale technically.

[@3rett115]

Agreed, but there's nothing saying you couldn't maintain your regularly scheduled DCA to the bottom after you sold your existing position when price crossed the 10MA. Maybe best of both worlds?

[@JohnJames-Manifest]

One of the best videos on finance

[@kaugy9]

Thank you for the video, would you recommend using this strategy with leveraged ETF like the UPRO or TQQQ etc?

[@FinancialWisdom]

2x leverage should be fine

[@holeefuk8505]

Dead simple works but nobody has the discipline to execute, even if it means buying & selling something as infrequently, because they also dont have the patience to do it, even in a retirement account. Though a bit slow to execute trades off personally, 200SMA/40Week are great filters. Another cracking video Gareth! Im assuming though that backtests didn't include dividends? If not the results would be even better, especially if holding some sort of interest bearing bond/money market fund while sitting in cash!

[@michaelkelly7740]

Don't say "nobody", I'm trying like crazy to master discipline. I agree it is the real hurdle facing investors.

[@bhaveravindra]

How do I apply the 10 month moving average on trading view. Is it a 10 period moving average on a monthly time period

[@FinancialWisdom]

Correct

[@shashidharreddy2959]

Please show rolling returns for all the strategies you explain

[@gurooraghavendran7899]

Very nice presentation..I personally learned a new stategy

[@FinancialWisdom]

Great 👍

[@VMV8622]

This channel is the best on trading strategies 😍😍😍

[@FinancialWisdom]

Thanks Vincent

[@Ozzie12]

Interesting thesis. I wish you incorporated the downside of having to pay taxes every time you sell at a gain that is net positive.

[@hadassah22]

Can u PLEASE do a video on how to add this indicator on tradingview charts. What are the inputs ? Thanks

[@FinancialWisdom]

Just open the monthly chart and use 10 ma

[@tolun99]

would be nice to see what the return would be if tested with being short instead of being out of the market when the trading is below the 10 month MA.

[@FinancialWisdom]

True, although the market has an upward bias so you would be fighting it.

[@michaelkelly7740]

Many thanks for another great video. Any "wisdom" in expanding asset classes to include for example bonds and commodities? If the equity trend is down, why not move into something that's trending up (if available) rather than cash?

[@dcsck1]

For the 10 month moving average, are you talking about the 10 months SMA or EMA? Or it doesn’t really matter ? In addition, what time frame to use for the best result of the indicator ? TIA

[@FinancialWisdom]

monthly time frame, SMA

[@nastynate4481]

Alot of people don't realize how dangerous buy and hold can be for emotions it can cause people to leave the market at the worse time and never come back. This happened to my dad's 401k. if he had implemented a strategy that limited losses he would have been able to stay in the market even if the strategy had limited returns vs buy and hold on certain years.

[@vicaya]

Does the back test take into account of the tax consequence of the exits? What are some of the ETFs that replicate the strategy? People could just buy and hold these ETFs without suffering from the tax consequences of market timing.

[@slademc1]

How are the returns affected when you take into consideration the tax implications for the 200 DMA strategy?

[@shock80ey]

And commissions and fees.

[@deville116]

Thanks 4 sharing this tested strategy. I tried to lay out a few lines of codes of the 10 Month MA and color it green (trend risig), white (flat), and magenta (trend falling). It looks awfully clear and cut. Will try this strategy with my long time frame book.

[@nickrebel1124]

@ 8:48 that candle did not close below the 10 month, it opened below and closed above

[@gambino618]

What about trading fees ? At 2:18 for example, all these false signals would reduce by a lot the profitability if the strategy over the years...

[@essaivideos]

I don't watch your videos and hit like button... I like the video first and then watch the video, it has become a habit for me. Thanks for your effort.

[@FinancialWisdom]

Thanks Essai 🙏

[@igrpetlnk7588]

can make video about what stocks are on your watch list and why ? kind of show what is really going on ? thanks. love your channel.!

[@ricklarsen7477]

My 100 year back test of all existing successful corporations today returned just a "buy" signal back in the 90's and 2000's.

[@jasminemccumber4694]

I am in my 40s looking for different avenues to invest I found my self a good broker referred by big sharks in stock market, she grew my portfolio from quarter a million to four million dollars in the first months of the year, if you are looking to diversify do it now you are never too old.

[@harlibassham8187]

Hello Jasmine, I'm close to your age and I need to grow my current wealth of half a million dollars. If it's possible, please share this woman with me.

[@jasminemccumber4694]

Annette Michelle Walters. look her up on web search

[@harlibassham8187]

@@jasminemccumber4694 Okay, here she is. Her credentials and profile are fantastic. Thank you; I'll get in touch right away.

[@aaravsamardh7089]

Annette is the right person to run to if you're talking about stock investment, presently I have 7m$ in my portfolio and she is responsible for it, I started off with 500k, working with the right person or team is the best advice for anyone looking to make progress efficiently.

[@carendemoya5429]

@@aaravsamardh7089 Annette is going far, I'm happy to see this recommendation on her, I remember when she started her career, anyone could tell she had the spark, true genius.

[@JC-ym1it]

Love your content and am particularly impressed by your humble manner.

[@FinancialWisdom]

Thanks JC 😊

[@streamyx78]

excellent analysis...........simple to understand

[@reheyesd8666]

I am thinking about this strategy and using TQQQ or some kind of leveraged spy strategy. The limited drawdown means it's possible to not go bankrupt doing it with the lower DD.

[@FinancialWisdom]

Spot on

[@alexargyros7186]

Thank you for the video and for the simple, but potent, idea. Could you tell me if you think (or have evidence for) this approach's efficacy using leveraged instruments, such as UPRO or TQQQ? Many thanks.

[@javamochafrap]

can you do a video where the top 3 sectors that do well when the SP 500 does well and go back 100 years also. thanks. good video

[@karlson68]

One thing I don’t understand is pro traders like Minervini always say they use stop orders when they enter a position. However, pretty much every time I think about entering a position I see big swings which I assume are algorithmic liquidity grabs. How can you realistically set a stop loss?

[@FinancialWisdom]

I use the weekly charts and areas of consolidation

[@daniel3897]

If I understood well, the entry point is after the market is close. And the entry price is exactly at the closing price. Is that it?

[@mehrdadmithra9591]

Interesting, how to set a 10 month MA in Tradingview? Is the goal to convert 10 months to days ? so far I've seen all inputs for MA are in days . Thankful for any idea.

[@theodordimov6518]

yeah I'm wondering myself. Also should we count 304 days or only working days (210-ish) 🤔

[@xgrahamsmith]

Does the differential between buy and hold, and jump in and out strategy you propose hear still hold up with the increased frictional brokerage and tax costs?

[@danguee1]

4:24 This graph shows why the success of this strategy over the time period chosen relies so much on that early, pre-1929 success by which time the MDA fund was more than double the S&P. From the peak in 1929 to 1941 the two strategies performed similarly, though the MDA avoided the worst of the crash. But since 1929 - or since 1941, if you want - the two strategies have experienced the same growth. If I'm going to pick a 'clever' strategy, I'm not going to go for the one whose main growth happened over a 100 years ago..... I do like the calmness in drawdown times but if I'm in for the long haul, there's little to choose between them.

[@FinancialWisdom]

But you can apply leverage to an approach offering lower drawdown.

[@frankpfeiffer]

Thank you for once again very informative and good video. But I still have one question: In the chart of the S&P 500 you seem to use the 10 exponential MA. In the Amazon and ARK comparison it agrees with me again to the simple MA.

[@leatof5540]

Thank you for all your nice videos. I have a question about this strategy. Why when we are in cash during a big crash we wait the price to cross again the 10 month moving average while we could rebuy at a price way lower ? Even if we don't catch the bottom , i think it will be more profitable.

[@FinancialWisdom]

I agree, I wait for the indecies to drop 25% and then start to average in (my trading approach is different)

[@Zivojinovic50]

Great video but how do we add a 10 months moving average on trading view? Do we change the 200 day MA to 210 day MA? many thanks if you can shed light on this

[@FinancialWisdom]

Just open a monthly chart

[@robertfoster3262]

Does this factor in commissions? Although now we have a zero commission world.

[@alipeikani3278]

Really great information. Would you please let me know which software do you use to create the video? I like the hand and white-board-like thing. Thanks

[@brandonfigueiredo8506]

So I feel like I am missing something obvious. The equity curve at the beginning of the vid shows $100k growing to $5M over a 60 year time frame (1960-2020) using the timing method. That's about 6.5% annualized. The actual S&P grew much more than that (~10.25%) over the same time period. What am I missing? Big fan of the channel by the way and just joined your website

[@FinancialWisdom]

Can't remember now :-). Less drawdown ? Meaning possible use of leverage?

[@kmkmashar2103]

Best channel

[@FinancialWisdom]

Thanks 🙂

[@Munted846]

Really is. I only found it a few weeks ago and it’s changed my whole perspective around investing. Really valuable content he’s giving us all. Great thanks from Australia

[@kiwineedscoffeehelp4647]

How would I get that 10 month ma on am H4 chart, what number and price type? I trade pairs and xau

[@jasondillon2567]

Excellent wisdom!

[@FinancialWisdom]

Glad you think so!

[@lakshay534]

Where I can find these research papers.

[@jesusventura2509]

Excellent thanks

[@timshen8310]

it looks like to calculate the bias btw 200 MA & 210 MA., does it ??

[@hadassah22]

So basically its the same strategy as 200 MA but just replacing it with 10 month SMA with better entries and exits? Thanks for video

[@williamkz]

Thanks Gareth. Fascinating. I usually equate the 200 day EMA with the 40 week EMA and the 10 month EMA. But I think this video demonstrates a meaningful difference. In terms of detail, I assume all trades on the 10 month EMA are ended or commenced on the first or last day of each month? Is that correct?

[@FinancialWisdom]

Hi William. That is correct end or start of the month 👍🙏

[@jamesjones-fc2yp]

Fascinating.Would the 10 month MA apply to futures.

[@gilouch8975]

​@@FinancialWisdom I get much better results (3x the profits) using 10sma rather than 10ema. Also, not understanding why you say moving average and not exponential moving average in the video but then it's an ema that you plot.

[@atmajazone]

@@gilouch8975 10 month?

[@clifffordmendes9367]

Very refreshing content. You always learn something here.

[@FinancialWisdom]

I appreciate that!

[@ver251209]

Why not close half the position and hold as cash when price is 2 Std/dev above the MA ( to preserve the gian) and then close the remainder when price closes below the MA. Re- enter 100% position size again when it re closes above? Then rinse and repeat.

[@sibonisomsane1575]

Nice breakdown 5star approach

[@anmayo917]

Can you also do a amibroker backtest on the 50week ma?? 🙏

[@tommyhawk2000]

The 10 Month ma IS the 200 Daily ma - they're one and the same as there are only 20 trading days per month. 20 x 10 = 200

[@chrisja1998]

No just change it to 300 It’s not capped by the number of trading days in a month. You can make an average of any amount of numbers.

[@tommyhawk2000]

@@chrisja1998 Not true. A monthly candle is based on 20 trading days so the 10 monthly ma is equivalent to the 200 daily ma

[@neilm9630]

I agree. Both are 200 days. And I think all MA’s are based on trading days not calendar days. Maybe he should say “period” instead of daily/monthly. Maybe the 200 period ma on a daily chart looks different than a 10 period ma on a monthly chart. Now I have something to do today. Or he should have said 300 day ma.

[@TheMountainBeyondTheWoods]

This was extremely informative. Even if you're a trader and not a long term investor you can use this info to know when your long trades will statistically perform better and trade accordingly.

[@blackjj4]

Hi, thanks for this very interesting vidéo. I wanted to look into it a bit further with trading view but could not find a 10 month simple moving average in the indicators. Did you find one indicator that offers it and coud you link it as an aswer ? Thanks a lot

[@gregs8736]

I think what he is doing is just using a 10 MA on the monthly setting. In the previous comment, he uses personally a 20 week MA which would be a 20 MA on the weekly.