Betelgeuse might explode (in the next 150,000 years) - Sixty Symbols

Professor Mike Merrifield pours some cold water on Betelgeuse - but also explains what will happen when it DOES explode.
More links and info below ↓ ↓ ↓
More videos with Mike Merrifield: bit.ly/Merrifield_Playlist
Mike is an astronomer at the University of Nottingham - he tweets here: / astromikemerri
Neutrinos from Beta Processes in a Presupernova: Probing the Isotopic Evolution of a Massive Star: iopscience.iop.org/article/10...
With thanks to Ed Guinan
Visit our website at www.sixtysymbols.com/
We're on Facebook at / sixtysymbols
And Twitter at / sixtysymbols
This project features scientists from The University of Nottingham
bit.ly/NottsPhysics
Patreon: / sixtysymbols
Sixty Symbols videos by Brady Haran
www.bradyharanblog.com
Email list: eepurl.com/YdjL9

[@matsv201]

"I bet a fair amount of money that it will not go in my life time" all right,, there is two possibility 1: it goes... and he need to pay a fair amount of money 2: ... it doesn´t, and he get a fair amount of money when he dies. This is not a good betting strategy

[@matsv201]

@PikPobedy Yepp.. if that would be possible to bet of things happening before once death.. i would bet a bilion dollar on freaking everything. It don´t matter if i lose 999 out of a 1000.

[@refrashed]

Theoretically, it would just go to next of kin, like a life insurance policy with a very strange stipulation.

[@matsv201]

@@refrashed Its not legal to transfer blanko liabilities to next of kind

[@refrashed]

@@matsv201 There are no liabilities because it's already been paid for. If it explodes before he dies, they would simply keep the money. Meanwhile, if it's still intact when he dies, the return would be paid to next of kin. Betting on something doesn't mean you "promise" to pay it back, like a loan. It means you paid money in the hopes of getting more back.

[@Rodzynus]

@@matsv201 Is it a liability though? Bookies take money when you place the bet so at this point if you lose, the money has already been paid. You or next of kin can only receive money.

[@Metroyeti17]

2:08 the perfect Minecraft villager noise

[@KnowledgeLabZero]

XD

[@sahilbaori9052]

OMG!!

[@rubenpinamonti7125]

LOL

[@Elitematt74]

8:31 General public: "It's quite sad almost" Physicists: "It's pathetic, really"

[@R1ckr011]

So British 🍵

[@PuzzleQodec]

8:14 B. - So a star spends all that time burning fuel, over millions of years, but the final fuel event is something measured over hours? M. - Hours, yes, literally hours, so it really is that frantic, but it's desperately trying to stay alive and so it's using up all the fuel it possibly can B. - It's quite sad, almost M. - It's pathetic, really B. - It's like it's drowning Best analogy I've heard.

[@giacomohermesferraro6673]

"They should have bets on astronomical events" "I bet you could" Well done, sir

[@TheExoplanetsChannel]

.

[@wiggles7976]

That's just a bet on making bets.

[@marvelous1358]

@@wiggles7976 betception

[@thePronto]

"Somewhere inside Betelgeuse, there might be the remains of a civilization." "Well fried, yes." "How do you want your civilization deary? Well done?" "Yes, please. And can I have some scraps?" "That will be 25p extra. Is that alright?"

[@avenged277693]

Is that supposed to be happening at a diner?

[@pansepot1490]

This must be the twentieth video about Betelgeuse that I watch. 😄 I feel I could go on tv and be interviewed as an expert on it. 😁

[@sixtysymbols]

Are you available?

[@priyanshupradhan4388]

@@sixtysymbols classic Brady

[@galacticbob1]

@@sixtysymbols I agree! I don't think you have made a video on the Dunning-Kruger effect yet. 😝🤣

[@R1ckr011]

@@sixtysymbols ::surprised Pikachu::

[@H1TMANactual]

When is it gonna explode?

[@Macfanize]

Ford Prefect will not be too happy about this.

[@Plons0Nard]

How about Zaphod ? Or Zaphod the Fourth, grand grand dad ? 😊

[@projectmalus]

He can use his towel to cry into.

[@Slarti]

Don't panic!

[@pedroscoponi4905]

Something tells me Ford wasn't terribly attached to home...

[@mal2ksc]

Neither will Michael Keaton. Michael Keaton. Michael Keaton. (disappears)

[@TheManglerPolishDeathMetal]

I could listen prof. Mike for hours

[@forestmahoney5446]

There actually is an early warning system in place - it consists of seven detectors from what I remember - including HALO (the Helium and Lead Observatory), Super Kamiokande, and IceCube. The system is aptly named SNEWS (Super Novae Early Warning System).

[@nicosmind3]

14:57 So its basically one of the few stars that is also a lava lamp!

[@justincronkright5025]

'Few' is like so many other terms here... Relative :)

[@roku_nine]

Its a giant blob of nuclear fusion.

[@nicosmind3]

@@roku_nine Like i said, lava-lamp :)

[@pauljackson3491]

I am ambivalent. I want to see a supernova but the sky will be just a little sadder missing the star. And Orion will be missing his shoulder, that's gotta hurt.

[@zhiqiandu3110]

Paul Jackson Orion will have a really beefy shoulder for some months and later a gamma rays flashing shoulder

[@mutantgeralt]

Yeah, I wonder what will it entail. I mean, how much do we love constellations? I mean, they are arbitrary are they not? We could turn orion sans betlegues into a new constellation, there can be stories about sacrifice and rising from the remains.

[@geitekop507]

Love it! This is why I study to be a scientist. Thanks, @Sixty Symbols

[@sixtysymbols]

You're welcome.

[@matbroomfield]

Damn, I'd better start hoarding toilet paper!

[@alazrabed]

Never too much prepared before the big explosion.

[@matbroomfield]

@@alazrabed Now are we still talking about a stellar explosion of friday night curry event?

[@alazrabed]

@@matbroomfield We're talking about the kind of explosion explosive enough to grant you escape velocity. Saturday morning or not.

[@matbroomfield]

@@alazrabed lol

[@kellyjackson7889]

Uranus enters the chat?

[@valeriavagapova]

I never even thought of this before, but now I really want to witness a supernova in my lifetime.

[@illustriouschin]

Orion is my favorite constellation and the only one that I can reliably spot right away. It would be a shame to mess up the shoulder.

[@kigozimuhammad]

well there will still be a neutron star left hanging. plus a big enough bright nebulae . that shoulder will be more epic than now imo

[@BFBThraShEr]

Ahh Merrifield, my fav scientist

[@TheRealGuywithoutaMustache]

It's unfortunate that we might never be able to witness the explosion. 150,000 years is a long time for humanity to survive.

[@silverhawkroman]

We've been humans for 200,000 years, we're like cockroaches: there's always a few remaining

[@IYPITWL]

@@silverhawkroman ... Pre-nuclear man had it so easy.

[@BrownOpsLeak]

RIP humanity

[@2ebarman]

I actually got thinking, can we perhaps prevent this explosion? There is a chance in those timelines.

[@jukahri]

​@@2ebarman No, and we wouldn't want to anyway.

[@wholelottared6166]

love these longer videos.. now more frequent videos please and thankyou

[@avinotion]

I'll take quality over quantity any day. Except it's quality over quantity, so I'll have to wait.

[@fep_ptcp883]

Another awesome lesson by Prof. Mike Merrifield

[@redaxecat9206]

I was going to bring up that paper at 6:26 I work with one of the authors on my research and another one of them taught the core courses in my physics major.

[@bigpickles]

I love these videos. Especially because they create me a hunger for going down educational rabbit holes and spending money on my Kindle!

[@projectmalus]

Collect the bets into a fund and use the interest to buy telescopes.

[@dahemac]

All the while there is a tiny something behind the fan atop the cabinet above the professor’s left shoulder (on our right) waving frantically.

[@AstroMikeMerri]

dahemac it’s my perpetual motion machine, but, shh, don’t tell anyone!

[@SharpAssKnittingNeedles]

​@@AstroMikeMerriFound Mike in the wilds of KZbin! 😮 Would love to have you autograph my copy of Galactic Astronomy!

[@retepaskab]

8:58 top right that's a cool graph, look very unscientific yet it's in a paper

[@Danilego]

Hey, that looks just like my doctor's handwriting!

[@HappyBeezerStudios]

Or those orbital graphs from when planets appear to go retrograde.

[@Debrafeem]

Yeah! It shows how sporadic the core temperature of the star is, as it contracts burns and contracts further, searching for more material to fuse!

[@dylanhubert6871]

Could you do a video on the unification of the forces? I think I get a general idea but I'm still confused and I'd be really interested to learn about that : )

[@sacredkinetics.lns.8352]

Love your philanthropic mentality. Thanks for sharing your knowledge. Humanity needs it. 💫👽💫

[@denislemenoir]

Nice video! Re supernova - There’s another great video on this topic by Cool Worlds that discusses that a supernova is actually not guaranteed and the star could implode “winking out” with great literature references in the description

[@jackielinde7568]

Sixty Symbols: It's never about HOW you say it. It's always about HOW MANY TIMES you say it. Everybody knows that.

[@mal2ksc]

Repetition legitimizes. Repetition legitimizes. Repetition legitimizes.

[@thesuccessfulone]

2.9999-

[@photonicpizza1466]

@@mal2ksc Bass-ics of all nomenclature

[@haroldbridges515]

Excellent explanation.

[@DanielRenardAnimation]

Before seeing the reports of the dimming taking place, I actually did look up at the night sky, while walking my mothers dog and I was genuinely surprised at how faint it had become, wondering if it had already gone off and just kind of... fizzled out, unexpectedly. I occasionally still stare at it, hoping it will suddenly just... flare up and illuminate the night sky! The initial light being emitted from the blast, must be quite spectacular! ⭐

[@dementionalpotato]

I can’t stop paying attention to that little thing behind the fan that won’t stop rocking back and forth.

[@TheRedPython]

Surely if we have a manned mission to Mars he will win the bet. The astronauts will be on Mars and they are a form of life. Better find that betting slip!

[@mutantgeralt]

They have to FIND life on Mars, not click a picture of any life on Mars. The difference is pretty clear

[@Jekubman]

@@mutantgeralt So what to do is go to Mars with at least two persons and play hide and seek... Find the other and you're in profit!

[@scynx]

Since I don't use twitter I have to bring it up again in here and hope you see it: Any chance for a video on these repeating radio signals from space?

[@JochemKuijpers]

Correction for 3:25: 20 Feb 2019 should be 20 Feb 2020.

[@timewalker6654]

When is a new sixty symbol video coming?

[@Ice_Karma]

0:35 Yeah, okay, Orion was the first constellation I was taught to recognize, but... I've lived in areas with ridiculous light pollution for a long, long time-the last time I visited my home town there were so many starts in the sky I couldn't locate *anything*. =(

[@lamp7777]

It's weird to think that it if exploded now we wouldn't know for 642 years.

[@Mr.Cucumba]

At first: Thank you for the effort to make all these fantastic videos! I've had the idea for another when i watched this one. You've said, that we (humans) don't quite know how spectacular phenomena like a supernova would look like if we hadn't observe one before. Wouldn't it be interesting to compare human made Interpretations of supernovae and so on to investigate which one is the most plausible? greeting from Germany

[@Yezpahr]

What is that perpetual motion machine next to that fan? It just keeps wobbling throughout the video.

[@ZappaBlues]

If Betelgeuse goes BOOM in my life time, I will consider it a lottery win.

[@michaelpettersson4919]

If it does chances are that you will not see it since it isn't really in our close neighbourhood so it will take a couple of centuries before we can see it. It is of course possible, thou unlikely, that it have already blown.

[@ZappaBlues]

@@michaelpettersson4919 What I mean it is that has already gone BOOM and light show has just arrived to earth,

[@helicocktor]

I remember watching this man like over a decade ago when he was still rocking sunglasses and leather jacket. How time flies

[@thirdcoastpartners]

Mike is my favorite of the Sixty Symbols/Deep Sky hosts. He looks quite peaked lately compared to older episodes. I hope he's not ill....

[@erictaylor5462]

11:00 Was Ford Prefect a neutrino? Because he said he came from the general direction of Betelgeuse.

[@carnsoaks1]

Wildest anthropomorphising of a Star's thermonuclear core I have ever seen. "it's desperate!"

[@brettbreet]

What's that oscillating thing near the fan throughout the video??

[@francoislacombe9071]

What is that small square thing moving back and forth on the file cabinet behind the professor? 🤔

[@jmchez]

Bet-Al-Jauza. As the Arabic description (not a real name) was pronounced in Latin when the Almagest (ancient star catalogue)was discovered in the library of Toledo, Spain.

[@AngDavies]

Professor merryfield's jumper seems to have a bit of a shimmer to it? Dunno if it's a flickering light or some kind of moiré type deal but it's slightly distracting. Has sixty symbols done a video on moiré patterns? Seems like a fair idea for a video Great video otherwise

[@clutchyfinger]

Whoa! Look at that fuel getting burned! So intense! Mike- hmph. Pathetic.

[@MorganEarlJones]

Thank You Scientist, very cool.

[@ffhashimi]

It pronounced : Bayt ALjawza, which means literally "the House of ALjawza", ALjawza is the The Gimini.. Actually in Arabic astronomy they call it : "Mankab ALjawza" which means : the shoulder of Gimini.though the Orion constellation this star in Called : "ALJabar" which means: The Giant.

[@alijassim7015]

*Thumbs Up*... Although to be precise, "Al Jabar" does not really mean The Giant, but The Mighty.

[@mal2ksc]

@Toughen Up, Fluffy _Is_ a giant. He's still tall enough to need a double B in his name (it's Abdul-Jabbar). As for the pronunciation, English is notorious for stealing vocabulary, spelling it correctly if it's in a Latin script (even though it uses a completely different mapping of sounds to letters) or making something up otherwise, and then everyone coming up with a new and possibly quite unrecognizable pronunciation of their own based on the spelling. Betelgeuse is far from the only victim.

[@tiihtu2507]

But how English people would pronounce it : Bay All-jaws .... Not sure if that's an improvement over Beetlejuice.

[@johnpepple3456]

House? Where do you get that? I've always heard that it was armpit, and Wikipedia agrees (for whatever that is worth). You're right about Mankab al-Jawza' being the current Arabic term, but that supports my claim that it was originally armpit, because mankab is shoulder.

[@ffhashimi]

@@johnpepple3456 As I said it's real name is "Menkab ALjawza"; Bayt ALjawza as have been said is the corrupted name, house of Aljawaza is the literal meaning of this corrupted name.

[@kricketflyd111]

When will there be an app for neutrino alarms?

[@batman3698]

I would love a new video with the shortened time estimation!

[@asamcqueen3513]

Abt Al Jouza, essentially "beetlejuice" is in the category of close enough, "bay tell guys" likely isn't. It just translates to "the armpit." I actually used the dimming of Betelguese as a current event in a class recently. Made for a fun topic. Now I just need to go bet a dollar on million to one odds that it goes up in my life time.

[@mjswart73]

I totally would have guessed that the JUNO detector would be associated with Canada. (Juno Awards, Juno Beach) But Canada's neutrino detector is called SNO (Sudbury Neutrino Observatory) so that makes sense.

[@IanGrams]

I just heard there's new evidence it is indeed a dust cloud thrown off causing the dimming so it seems Professor Merrifield was spot on at the end :]

[@SolaceEasy]

"Well fried." Sounds like Professor Merrifield loves him some fish and chips!

[@SolaceEasy]

How very British

[@bradybroderick8856]

Love the videos!

[@tabaks]

According to Wikipedia, "The star's name is derived from the Arabic يد الجوزاء Yad al-Jauzā', meaning "the hand of Orion". The Arabic letter for Y was misread as B by medieval translators, creating the initial B in Betelgeuse." So it should really be pronounced "Yettle-geeze"? Bet'-uhl-jooz. Bate'-uhl-jooz.

[@itsoknotobeok9669]

You are the best

[@OnkelPeters]

The long awaited Betelgeuse video!

[@himanshuyadav4188]

I was wondering if it is because of dust shouldn't it be clear after looking at Betelguese in multiple ranges of spectrum...

[@KilluminatiMujahad]

That is so cool, I wish I can live to see it.

[@danielm.1441]

Suddenly caught something twitching in the background (by the fan) what the hell is it?

[@ratgr]

@Zogg from Betelgeuse, so thats why you are not posting videos you are preoccupied?

[@SmithyOneTwelve]

Paused at 8:36 to talk to someone. Looked at my screen and couldn't help but laugh. Typical mad scientist!

[@douglasgrant8315]

150,000 years from now eh? Well I guess I should have something to worry about shouldn't I?

[@the_hanged_clown]

but if it DID go supernova, how long would it take before we detected such?

[@DanDart]

"Bootlegors" - somebody in one of the greatest comedies

[@HolmesCory]

Are there any other stars (excepting the sun, natch) that we can take a picture of? Or is Betelgeuse the only one?

[@mikeyoung9810]

Thanks! I'm going to pack my bug out bag right now and start stockpiling milky ways!

[@superman9693]

Nice! But why isn‘t there a biology channel? 😔

[@davidpnewton]

"So somewhere in the middle of Betegeuse might be the remains of civilisations." Erm no. A 10 solar mass star lives nowhere long enough for that to be the case. 10 solar mass stars last 20 million years or so total. That's enough time for planets to form but not really much more than that. Then they go boom and vapourise any planets that have escaped being engulfed by the star's supergiant phase.

[@davidpnewton]

@@weye scientists and the Fermi paradox.

[@justincronkright5025]

Is 20 millions years enough before it gets engulphed? I thought that massive volcanic activity, much like those convections in stars would keep any planets from having a nice form or shape to them. Plus they would be spinning faster too, although I'm not sure how much that would assist in deforming the planets other than at the equator... and molten/liquid rock and such maybe have intra-adhesive properties such as the hydrogen boding of water. It would be interesting to see the full picture there. Also 20 million years would be from the star's perspective not the planet's, so the gas and dust wouldn't have even settled by then.

[@joshuacoppersmith]

We have precisely one example with the evolution of an intelligent--or any--species: Earth. From this it is impossible to draw any scientific conclusion. We should instead say that untested theory would predict... Science demands evidence. Period.

[@andrew20195]

@@joshuacoppersmith It's not impossible that intelligent life evolved in the Betelgeuse system in the 10-20 million years it has existed, but based on what we know of the complexity of organic chemistry, it is exceedingly unlikely.

[@ekscalybur]

@@joshuacoppersmith We have more than one example. There have been 5 mass extinction level events in Earths history. Some of those 'events' nearly spanned the ENTIRE life cycle of a 10 solar mass star. Each of those events, since life first appeared, took MUCH longer than the life span of a 10 solar mass star even with the massive head start of each event NOT being a total extinction of life. With that head start, several times the life span of a 10 solar mass star passed since the last mass extinction event before intelligent life sprang up. Life, let alone intelligent life, has zero chance to have developed around Betelgeuse. 20 million years is a literal astronomical eye blink.

[@BobStein]

What are the prospects for higher resolution pictures of the disc of Betelgeuse?

[@SharpAssKnittingNeedles]

Because bio is just applied chem 🤭

[@spudd86]

How far away does a Supernova have to be before the light will overtake the neutrinos?

[@paulmoffat9306]

The star is brightening up now, and the current evidence, is that it blew off a cloud of dust from it's poles - the south pole of the star is the area visible at the lower edge of the star. The other dust ejection would be from the North pole, which is not visible from our vantage point. There may be another ejection in about 390 days (following its 430 day cycle) or not. Its anybody's guess at this time.

[@jackielinde7568]

Betelgeuse: Shut up! I'm not dimming! You're dimming! And I'm not crying, either... I just got dust in my eye. Stupid humans on a stupid little planet saying mean things about me, like "You're gonna blow up soon!" and "Hurry up, and explode so I can see it." Yeah, I used this joke on another video's comment section about this same thing. I think Betelgeuse still needs some love and a hug.

[@jackielinde7568]

Professor Merrifield: Part of the reason nobody knows is because it really is a very messy system. It's big, extended, bloated kind of thing... Betelgeuse: Look who's calling who a "bit, extended, bloated kind of thing..."

[@SharpAssKnittingNeedles]

Thank you for the laugh four years later 😂 I needed that!

[@jeanbigboute]

Thank goodness we're back to real science and scientists on Sixty Symbols.

[@mr2octavio]

Is there a graph or Gauss(most probably Gauss) bell of when the star has the highest chance to explode?

[@galacticbob1]

We have some very predictive models, but even if you could tell with 99.5% confidence where it is currently at in that curve, you are still looking at a tens of thousands of years range that it would fall in.

[@murphy957]

How come they didn’t mention the SNO lab in the paper or video? The Sudbury Neutrino Observatory in Ontario Canada recently won the Nobel prize, is it a different kind of neutrino observatory?

[@aidarosullivan5269]

Fried civilizations, what a beatiful way to end video!

[@justincheng12345]

3:18 the date goes from Aug 2019 to Jan 2020 then back to Feb 2019, is the star moving faster than light?

[@casualbeluga2724]

Going c^2 makes you go back in time

[@michaelsommers2356]

It's called a typo.

[@DANGJOS]

@@michaelsommers2356 It's called a joke.

[@michaelsommers2356]

@@DANGJOS Sometimes it's hard to tell.

[@imager8763]

Mike is an awesome!

[@Axonteer]

isnt there an error in the graph at 3:24 on the left it says 20feb 2019 but shouldnt it say 2020?

[@sixtysymbols]

Yes - and I sure am glad y'all enjoy writing comments about it. :)

[@ricardoabh3242]

We need to see the Booker paper slip!

[@sterisharms1468]

Calling it "1987A" makes it sound like it only happened in one timeline but not the others

[@davecrupel2817]

I personally think it's so unstable, that it's churning and osculating, like a boiling pot of water, or wet egg on a frying pan. Spots of extra heat-pressure here, spots of far less pressure there, resulting in serious irregularities of it's overall shape.

[@openshores4288]

3:09 is that an error? 20 Feb 2019?

[@1234Daan4321]

How do we know that, something didn't move between us and Betelgeuse? Like a large dust cloud or something? That would also dim the light from Betelgeuse temporarily, right?

[@erictaylor5462]

"We will get a warning" but only if we have a reliable way to detect neutrinos.

[@SoleaGalilei]

After it's over, what will we see where the star used to be? A nebula? Or just empty space?

[@francoislacombe9071]

Something very similar to the Crab Nebula. And possibly a pulsar, if the beams happen to sweep over our solar system.

[@PuzzleQodec]

A naked eye pulsar would be the coolest thing ever. A faint stroboscope star.

[@SolidSativa1]

If it blew up tomorrow, it would be over 600 years before we would know

[@willemkossen]

How does a neutrino detector work???

[@grah55]

3:24 something about this graph...

[@johnopalko5223]

Once the supernova fades, what will be Betelgeuse's magnitude? Will it still be usable for navigation? Right now, the dimmest of the 57 selected navigational stars is Acamar (θ Eridani), with a magnitude of 3.1. Sure, we're talking maybe 150,000 years in the future but it never hurts to plan ahead. 😁

[@garethdean6382]

From what we can guess around magnitude 2-4, and almost all of that will be its nebula. (Hence the variation since the nebula will be growing both larger and dimmer over time.)

[@mc4ndr3]

Do you run BOINC?

[@agentk3984]

I just realized betelgeuse dimmed around 700 years ago and its just now getting noticed.

[@rik6043]

I was waiting for this video since i hear the news😅

[@alazrabed]

Crazy to think it's only ten times as massive as the Sun and yet is a thousand times larger.

[@riccardoorlando2262]

It really is quite fluffy.

[@alazrabed]

@@riccardoorlando2262 Yeah, just a sweet blanket I bet.

[@tk-zh3dd]

ahh one of my favorite astronomy topics :-D