Betfair football trading strategies - Who scores first?

[@David-pd6qv]

I do like those sort of a games where the underdog has quite big chances of scoring first and the price is quite high, I do back them in the market " Team to win and both teams to score " and if the price was 3/1 , the price on that morket would be slightly more and I would lay them on exchange

[@Tutorialsandgameplays]

Hi, I guessed it right probably because of the expierence on that market. But I want to ask why do we add home advantage to calculations? Not just here but also when picking team to win or goals being scored. I mean home advantage should be already calculated in the odds. For example when picking team to win some people say, yeah you should add home advantage. But isnt it already calculated by bookmaker or whoever produces odds? Thanks in advance!

[@betangeltv]

Home advantage is worth about 0.40 goals a match for the home team. Broadly speaking, it's the pressure the officials feel from the home crowd!

[@thewealthkitchen]

Hi Peter - in previous videos when talking about goals and predicting the draw - you say about pricing up the draw. How do you price up a match? could you do a video on this at some point :)

[@ShaneByse]

one recent one that jumps to mind is Newport scoring in the 38min v Tottenham before Kane as usual saves the day in the last 10 min

[@senar2009]

Loved this very interesting thnks Peter !

[@betangeltv]

Thanks for leaving a comment. I'm glad you enjoyed the video.

[@senar2009]

@@betangeltv and Aston Villa v Fav Chelsea scored the 1st goal lol

[@cbm2236]

But what is the average return if they do score first and you trade out, then we can see if it is profitable ?

[@betangeltv]

It is profitable in the long term, the odds have always underestimate the true chance in every world cup since 2006.

[@cbm2236]

@@betangeltv Have you looked at optimal exit points, a bit like tennis? Is it common that the underdogs come out all guns blazing, and only really score first most of the time early on? So we could create a rule like trade out after 30 mins if still 0-0 and scratch.

[@andreasholst491]

Hi Peter. Will you provide the formula for calculating the 37% in the video? BR Andreas

[@betangeltv]

The number is based on observations and data from the market. So there isn’t a formula as such. You can fit one to describe the data, but it’s more important to understand what sits behind it.

[@andreasholst491]

@@betangeltv Thanks for the reply, much appreciated. 🙂

[@kopthelotklopp1523]

Surely the odds on the 'next goal' or 'first team to score' market reflects this though?

[@betangeltv]

The takeout on the video should be that, from a trading perspective, profitable positions tend to be created in the least likely areas of the market and that, where there appears to be the most certainty, the pay off isn't perhaps quite as riskless as you may think.

[@Ventcis]

@@betangeltv I didn't get how you calculate the answer - 37% ?

[@Garycarlyle]

I would have said about 20%

[@senar2009]

Btw my guess ws 45 pcent lol

[@Jognism]

Why do you disable the like to dislike bar?

[@betangeltv]

Didn't know I had to be honest, I'll see what setting that is and activate it.