BNC London: Dr Frans Cronje - Decoding SA's political future post-May 29

Dr. Frans Cronje, Chair of the Social Research Foundation (SRF), delivered a captivating keynote speech at the BizNews Conference in London, offering a thought-provoking analysis of South Africa's political landscape. Drawing from decades of data and observation, Dr. Cronje outlined a nuanced vision of the country's trajectory, emphasizing shifts in voter demographics, the rise of fringe political ideologies, and the ANC's evolving support base. His insights into potential coalition governments and the role of countervailing forces underscored the complexity and dynamism of South Africa's democratic evolution. Dr. Cronje's address provided a comprehensive framework for understanding the nation's political future, sparking discussions on unity, reform, and governance strategies moving forward.
Video production by Patrick Kidd
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[@mystifyme1799]

''For we wrestle not against flesh and blood, but against principalities, against powers, against the rulers of the darkness of this world, against spiritual wickedness in high places.''

[@katt1138]

Amen!

[@sikhuntaka3740]

Amen

[@hyltonswemmer4824]

amen - facts

[@wisdomseeker3937]

What has the Bible got to do with this?

[@madeleinedonaldson4422]

Before 1994 food was cheap and healthy, petrol was cheap, crime was quickly dealt with, road accidents were less, SAA won international awards, Cape Town won International awards, trains ran efficiently, traffic cops did their job, more had work than today,? Our Hospitals were World Class, our Harbours worked, Education had a high standard, our Gold and other minerals were sort out, our fruits were exported World wide.We learnt about God in our formative years, beautiful departmental Stores, lovely flowers lined our streets and much more.Our Country needs God's blessing🙏🙏🙏

[@sikholamla8299]

Was good for Afrikaanars and the boers or any pink skin, blacks it was gaza

[@harley1450ification]

And you had apartheid while you tip-toed through the tulips.

[@harley1450ification]

@@sikholamla8299 And at Codesa they ( white big business and ANC) made a deal and screwed everyone.

[@agrid2608]

"Crime was dealt with..." for a tiny fraction of the population. None of these claims ever held true for the majority of the population, urban or rural.

[@ntokozolugogo4762]

It was a living hell for black majority

[@johanschoeman869]

All good and well, i just dont think our economy can survive another 5 years of corruption, greed and incompetent government. The social pressure to revolt will just be too much.

[@mathewman]

well you've got it!!!

[@anindachakrabarti8096]

This country has solid potential and is blessed with abundant natural resources. As a foreigner living in RSA for the last 6 years, I am very optimistic of RSA's socio-economic turnaround. Only thing is the South Africans will have to vote wisely on May 29th. They shouldn't get bought out with KFC boxes and free T-shirts.

[@thandondamase3653]

WHO GETS BOUGHT WITH KFC BOXES?

[@neilblunt1926]

The problem is they DON'T vote wisely. They vote with their hearts instead of their heads. I believe all moderate South Africans want only the best for the country. AS long as we can have competent people in positions of decision making authority, none of us are bothered if they are black, white, coloured, indian, male or female, as long as they have the skills and don't discriminate against people on race, religion or gender. We long for this country to show the world what can be achieved if we put aside the past, roll up our sleeves and work hard for the common good of ALL the people of South Africa and NOT only once race.

[@Amôpeacekg]

Out💛 In 💙

[@geraldinemichael2084]

DA all the way

[@Amôpeacekg]

💙

[@laudinemunday-kw8zq]

Disheartening to say the least!! God help us 🙄🙄

[@JanRademan]

The cognitive dissonance of voting for the ANC because they solved loadshedding makes my head spin.

[@alkebulanafricanconversati1728]

Your perspective is very narrow on a complex matter. You can never understand the transformation of black lives like myself, with you things have been only going wrong, for me because of where I was born and raised compared to where I am today ANC has done alot of things right.

[@caesar3909]

Loadshedding hasn't been solved, it's on leave until June

[@yourfriendlyneighbourhoods8202]

They “solved it” by spending ungodly amounts on burning diesel which will only worsen the problem later down the line

[@kwameoluwasomi]

@@alkebulanafricanconversati1728 Educate me on this, please…

[@karenj8406]

People are starting to lose hope for this country

[@gbone7581]

Starting?🤣

[@stevious]

​@@gbone7581 for this country not in this country... there's probably a significant difference.

[@1986aurora]

South africas only hope is for ANC to be removed from power and every aspect of our lives,jobs,finances,childrens education and laws that only work for them ! GOD please hear our cries ,please allow evil to fail. THis country is broken and we have lost all hope, anc has the numbers to win and destroy even more .....

[@fannycasteel7118]

I thought we were a DEMOCRACY???

[@tonymoon7230]

​@@fannycasteel7118We are what is known as a kakistocracy. Look it up, it's a genuine word..

[@balsak007]

@@fannycasteel7118 Democracy where the majority are 30%ters. Sure. The best thing about democracy is everyone can vote - the worst thing about democracy is everyone can vote.

[@fannycasteel7118]

@@balsak007 I dont understand what the problem is ?? People vote, you get a government. Simple!! Its a pity if your party does not win...

[@philipkoekemoer4705]

​@fannycasteel7118 SA shouldn't exist, and with the anc & eff coalition it soon won't

[@billyrajoo8076]

We thought 1994 onwards was going to better ..But it deiterated and everything went down the ground .From that time to now everything went terrible no improvement .Our Roads are total mess . Petrol gont to the highest ..foodstuffs highest .Most times we can't get basic services ..Companies leaving SA .Companies closing .No jobs .Everything down the drain .All municipalities sewerage and burst pipes flowing in streets .Corruption is the biggest problem .People getting enriched overnight. Now we definitely need a change😮😮😮

[@grantpedder7719]

It didn't take a clairvoyant in '94 to know that we were heading for BIG trouble, just common sense which I suppose is not that common. Call me whatever you like, I don't give a flying *_F_* but I knew this then.

[@InspectorYT]

We, the people, need to stand together against ANC lunacy and more importantly, to become aware and promote awareness of the clandestine promulgation of legislation to subjugate us to the whims of Advancing National Corruption and foreign Governments, organisations or individuals not elected by us. We, the people, must communicate to wake the sheep amongst us and not assume that everyone is aware of fact or opinion shared by knowledgeable individuals, such as Dr Frans Cronje.

[@user-gy4lv3ck9q]

We need to change to a strong federation with each province being fairly autonomous,with responsibility for its own health, education,police tax and social service.The national govt would be limited to defence,transport

[@roeteroestof3896]

That would be magical and maybe the only way forward.

[@DumaM-ir7rk]

They should never have broken down Bantu stands . Today we are not all the same and we are forced to take rules from people who don’t under different culture and beliefs. Language dominance is the problem in the country and ANc is causing more problem with department of education. All people in Gauteng must be forced to do English only not any afrikaa or African languages

[@peterbarclay8799]

They will never give up power voluntarily. But we can force them to that situation by fighting for Cape Independence.

[@madeleinedonaldson4422]

100%

[@HeyJuuude-05]

@@peterbarclay8799how?

[@goodbarbenie5477]

If the ANC is still the ruling party after the Elections for next five years there will nothing left of country South Africa will cease to exist. 😢😮😢 This no idle talk this a fact...😱

[@timjacobs7104]

Humans can say we do this or that . But God's will needs to be the planning, or we will fail. That is my 2 cents for the day

[@ronaldus1011]

Not 2 cents, 2 billion dollars ❤❤

[@manoviejacobs8608]

In the end it will be all about fairness & performance. Unfortunately there bigger parties think they know it all. They have all shortfalls. In the end there won't be change. The people will suffer because of their differences.

[@AndrewMcFarlane_1]

The people vote them in... if the quality of voters improves... the political leader quality improve

[@devnaidoo1062]

Greetings from Sherwood ,Durban,South Africa…great video..

[@cjtannerza]

Checking in from the Bluff

[@mromegakiwi4952]

I cannot see the ANC falling well below 50%. Not with all the financial input they have between Iran, Russia and the changes to the campaign funding legislation heavily favouring them. From a voter standpoint there has been too much infighting between smaller parties over trivial matters before the election. Let's hope the MPC, if it plays any role after the election, will be able to focus on SA as a whole and not just the WC. The mass of rural communities have proven to be kingmakers in the past. The ANC is becoming far too socialist for a country that has so much unemployment and corruption. Many European nations are struggling with such policies despite their far more advanced economies. The NHI will be the end of healthcare, there should rather have been a better system of coverage for the most destitute and empoverished. Our doctors are leaving the country at an alarming rate as well. I believe the ANCs interests will always be put above ours, anyone disagreeing with the party line is ousted. Which is a situation dangerously reminiscent of the USSR's.

[@lynnehorn2220]

Very well said

[@user-xq7il3ih6e]

Ja baie goed gestel.​@@lynnehorn2220

[@ianmubangizi]

Finally someone speaks of what’s actually happening 🎉

[@ianmubangizi]

This national election is shrouded by geopolitics. And society is focused on problematic politics. Smaller parties have no real cards to play. The Opposition is untrusted by the populous. Worst of all the governing party is stuck between national and geopolitical interests. Really sad to see this beautiful nation on its knees when it could be the leader in Africa 😢

[@yourfriendlyneighbourhoods8202]

I think they will fall below 50% but they’ll be able to retain power by forming coalitions with parties just as crooked as them

[@tonitappous2422]

Do you know that four out of every five new jobs in SA over the past five years were created in the Western Cape?? See - DA delivers for the poor and vulnerable, BusinessDay.

[@vitumbikomakuwa10]

Not because of DA. Gauteng remains the powerhouse by far

[@yourfriendlyneighbourhoods8202]

@@vitumbikomakuwa10Gauteng has historically been the powerhouse and still have tons of infrastructure. However that’s changing as more businesses flock from Johannesburg to cape town. Even international brands such as Amazon have chosen to set up their headquarters in Cape Town over Johannesburg

[@gerhardreinecke3945]

Please post the Q&A as well. Regards

[@robertmclaggan4021]

ANC will join up with eff & MK.

[@ratioxcmcsa263]

Doomsday

[@mathewman]

shocked - but not surprised at the paltry turnout!!!! could never understand the timing abt this. surely once the results were out would have been better?

[@tonitappous2422]

Having watched the very informative King David Studio interview with Helen Zille on KZbin, and the very inspirational Arte tv Documentary about Mayor Chris Pappas ( 32) of uMngeni Municipality and his young Deputy Mayor, Sandile Mnikathi ( 28), also on KZbin, the DA is by far the most progressive, the most compassionate and the most experienced choice to take SA and the Multi Party Charter forward in 2024!!

[@luamboramarumo4249]

Indeed, this guy understands South Africa politics.

[@user-sy4ec3em5o]

Very disheartening... I was hoping the ANC would get less than 40%

[@nellwhiteside3042]

Thanks for a positive view. Most people are SO pessimistic.

[@fxwic5072]

A significant number of the population did not live through apartheid but the systemic and systematic racism within many institutions in the country even today make many relate to the lived experiences of those that lived in apartheid most of whom are our parents. It is this systemic racism that politics is across racial lines in SA.

[@khomotsoletsatsi6045]

Still trying figure out the gist of this conference

[@reubenvandermerwe3668]

If the ANC takes another term we are definitely going to end up like Zimbabwe

[@user-lg2ov9hq3n]

In Madibeng North Province by election of 1500 : ANC 75% , EFF ; 25%, MK 1% : ANC is strong on the ground and will get between 49% plus _ minus

[@robbynweimann5709]

The youngsters that have not lived through Apartheid are taught about it by their elders. Keeping Apartheid alive. I refused to teach my children the bitterness from the past. I grew up during Apartheid and we weren't taught anything about it. The only time I learned about it was when the Great man Mandela was let out. I didn't agree with what happened and was horrified about the info that was released when Mandela was released. This country was getting better when Mandela was president. When he died this country took a dive as they did not keep to Tata Madiba teachings once he was gone. A dark day for SA the day he died.😢

[@jennyengland2506]

I wouldn't say they hit the floor, they still have a lot of voters,and far from failing, nor being defeated...

[@eileendupreez4268]

What planet are you on!!!? ANC has put the country into the gutters. Time to learn “ what can you do for SA not what can SA do for me”.

[@nielvanzyl]

Solid analysis

[@nigelhamilton815]

True elections in SA will only happen after the generation alive during apartheid have passed . Then people will be able to vote after assessing the party policy not history.

[@vitumbikomakuwa10]

History cannot be written off, you cannot formulate policies that disregard the injustices of the past. Look how white-dominated is corporate SA. all low-paying jobs are bor blacks in broad terms and those nice jobs are for whites, Quite frankly, graduate unemployment is only a figure for black people in broad terms.

[@Rj12922]

Please, people my age complain and blame apartheid like they experienced it..they just want free victim cards without the struggle and discrimination

[@LM-rg9lj]

So da ANC us not worried or concerned where da counrty will be i 2029😢😢😢

[@oletonnesen9101]

SA National Debt 273,31 $ Bn as of February 2024 ….

[@Spyk27632]

America 35trillion USD but they can raise the ceiling😂

[@wernervanderwalt8541]

Ek sal ook maar nou nie regtig opgewonde raak nie. Hy praat ook maar lekker bollie partykeer

[@johanntheopienaar3635]

Kan jy beter doen? ons wag vir jou

[@sisandahenna]

Can someone explain, why is there such a conference in London. Who has vested interest on SA Politics in London? Please educate me/ us.

[@oodlesofnoodles4660]

Foreign investors of all kinds. They would be looking to invest or reinvest into something within SA because it might yield better returns than anywhere else, but they will need to know what kind of policies SA is likely to have post-election that would favour such investments. Policies such as expropriation without compensation or any kind of arbitrary nationalisation are exactly what would drive away foreign investment because the investors would never know when the government simply decides to take it all and they are left with nothing. If such policies are anywhere near a reality for SA, foreign investors would simply look elsewhere because their investment would not be protected under law.

[@daowiz001]

The modern world is a closely woven economy and political system, every other country has vested interest in South Africa. Something most South Africans don't understand well but need to learn.

[@yourfriendlyneighbourhoods8202]

International voting in London took place over the weekend so this conference likely ties in to that

[@charlesmiller-pk8hd]

be ratified, but it has been said that London alone there are 250000 South Africans. The expat ZAs are mostly well settled economically and have an investment potential that hasn't been guaged . An appeal for investment from expats to their country might be all the foreign! investment we need. As long as the ANC is not still the gatekeeper waiting to take their blood money.

[@MorgMorg-uf6ps]

How many more people are there? We all know that is the eliphant in the room.

[@berealistic]

Oh please...

[@leonscheepers5350]

This guy likes his own voice.

[@charliepepper3039]

He is paid to give political commentary. It’s his job and he is excellent at it.

[@leonscheepers5350]

@@charliepepper3039 good at talking - not good at predicting

[@tomconnolly8071]

So we will Have another Gangster in the top echelons of SA Politics- Geyton MacKenzie

[@yourfriendlyneighbourhoods8202]

SA is beyond fucked. The latest polls haven’t looked good. ANC will lose their majority but will likely go into coalition with MK or EFF. So, so sad what’s happened to that beautiful country. All the hopes and dreams compeltely destroyed

[@user-sy4ec3em5o]

We desperately need stage 6 for this week leading up to the election

[@andyb.1026]

Which version of Apartheid 😊 the old one , where everything worked 😊 or the present one between Tribes 😮 why do all the media ignore ignore Tribalism in all of Africa ( obviously Ive lived there)

[@goodbarbenie5477]

South Africa died on 18th of May 1994. Never to rise up again to it's former Glory or to any Glory for that matter... South Africa has become a Gangsta State... period 😢. Unless...but I don't see that a happening to the benefit of all South Africans...😮

[@StevenC-vn4qo]

The next election is in 2 weeks , what is the need to speculate possible outcomes post 2029 already. The ANC has always had over 60 % of the vote. It still has this share just the party broke into the EFF , ANC & now MK. No need to overanalyze this constantly. Its doesn't really matter in the grand scheme of things , the masses have not voted for policies or parties that favour economic growth & law and order with feasible social reforms. South African's vote emotionally "personality " politics at an extremely low level. ( Did MK even have any policies before members started joining ? Didn't matter ) Parties like the EFF , PA & MK etc have grown in numbers since 2009 . The direction of travel is clear. SA " needs to " is a constant boring statement for actions to be done in the future. I've never heard we "have done & are currently doing " as discussed previously. Look back at media from 10 yrs ago. Eskom , post office , state capture , SA Airways , Riots , public infrastructure , crime , economic stagnation now NHI The writing is on the wall

[@ProcaviaCapensis-ts8ub]

I think that a lot of voters are disillusioned. They don't want to vote ANC but don't really have a party that they do want to vote for. EFF and MK are a bit of a stop gap until something better comes along. Of course there are those MK and EFF members that really do believe in their policies and are diehard supporters but a large percentage will be happy to jump ship when the time comes. We see this in how quickly EFF support dropped when MK arrived on the scene.

[@StevenC-vn4qo]

@@ProcaviaCapensis-ts8ub Completely correct. We don't have time on our side anymore however so best choose the "best " of what we have now and start plugging some holes atleast. As seen in local municipalities ( Besides Cpt ) , infrastructure , capital & sentiment long term won't be restored after a certain point of decline. Then things get heated. In the land of the blind the one eyed man is king

[@nhlanhla61]

ANC good. vote ANC

[@EddieGooler]

So tell me your IQ, without telling me.

[@nhlanhla61]

@EddieGooler 😂😂😂come, let's take one together now. I'm willing to bet it's higher than yours. Site of your choice

[@fisho1257]

Good for nothing😂

[@nhlanhla61]

@@fisho1257 lol mxm

[@wettham715]

After PRIDE comes the fall.😅

[@crispinswainstonharrison9042]

Gosh Frans got this horribly wrong.

[@MD-rz3kh]

9

[@fannycasteel7118]

Anyone that think the ANC will fall below 50% lives in a different world!! I believe the ANC will rule SA again. Like it or hate it....

[@NinohBrown]

True!! There is no credible altetnative to the ANC, no party has been able present a winning alternative for everyone. DA has reached its peak it will only decline from here. EFF might be the second biggest party in SA after elections but will never reach ANC levels

[@fannycasteel7118]

@@NinohBrown I 100% agree on the DA declining!! They will become like FF , a tiny party.

[@Josephine-go9df]

ANC is going to fall under 40 unless there's rigging, the last elections was 57 and with the formation of Mk and many of voters hating it, I don't see it surviving

[@gerritoosthuizen2115]

I need to change adress. You have old one

[@funkwallah]

MOAN MET N WITBROOD ONNIR DIE ARM

[@felicitytaylor3764]

205000 jobs created and filled in Cape town by DA this 2024 to date

[@mzwabantu]

To all the dissatisfied predictors of doom, get a flight ticket and scram. That easy!

[@emmo2850]

Like the same old political parties that hover for decades, the same is for the commentators, same old mindset hovering and commenting, nothing new and no different vision. Propaganda and no change keeps marking time. Smh

[@redhowell7856]

I'm a reasonably intelligent guy but this speech was unintelligible? Huh? Maybe its me but, jissie 🤔

[@tameimpala37]

You can talk around all you like, South Africa is a failed state and one of the Black man's greatest ever failures.

[@Thegema101]

We need to stand against the ANC and the DA

[@yourfriendlyneighbourhoods8202]

DA aren’t perfect but it’s time to give them a chance. If they screw up as much as the ANC has then we can look at other options

[@grantpedder7719]

From the days of *_"The Time Travelers Guide To South Africa 2030"_* this guy has done an exact 180⁰ about turn. Give me a break and stop BS ing! It didn't take a clairvoyant in '94 to know that we were heading for BIG trouble, just common sense which I suppose is not that common. Call me whatever you like, I don't give a flying *_F_* but I knew this then.

[@alkebulanafricanconversati1728]

Eskom is okay because of De Ruyter 😂, Afrikaane nationalist trying to prop their people and save face from one of their own failing

[@user-lf2ov1eu9y]

Cape Independence! Separation from the rest of the ANC. Have an independent state run by the DA.

[@khomotsoletsatsi6045]

SA is a unitary state..

[@blurrd]

This bloke is a little delusional 😮

[@DumaM-ir7rk]

Bantu stand should have remained under black councils who are degreed with masters or PhD and kings who have a degree in law or policy and politics. The current system is not working for tribal sovereignty. Gauteng people must remain but English must be the only language used in Gauteng and all different blacks and whites whorl remain must agree to mix and work together towards one goal

[@manoviejacobs8608]

You all that uses the platform to predict what the score board is gonna look like &all of you by the way mention you favourite party the way you give your msgs over. It just confuses the South Africans

[@balsak007]

Die ou prt mos kak

[@ProcaviaCapensis-ts8ub]

It's so easy to critisise. Can you do better ?

[@johanntheopienaar3635]

Jou kommentaar beteken so min dit word met minagting verwerp want jou kennis is nuller tussen jou oortjies

[@balsak007]

@@ProcaviaCapensis-ts8ub Yes, of course, and I would guess if you know the truth about the history of South Africa and understand human behavior across different cultures, you would also be able to speak the truth without fear of being canceled.

[@balsak007]

@@ProcaviaCapensis-ts8ub And to say Loadshedding has ended? I mean wtf? We all know that's a political stunt. Watch and see how loadshedding hit us after elections. Easy to criticize neh, fok jaaa jisis dink net.

[@ProcaviaCapensis-ts8ub]

@@balsak007 Jy praat kak.

[@user-Jzc07lwand]

Bunch of know it all talking nonsense, you don't kwho I'm gonna vote for.

[@oomeshdesai4414]

Do you play power Balls

[@user-Jzc07lwand]

@@oomeshdesai4414 Is your name Oomesh?I'm curious about something.

[@gbone7581]

Is your vote is going to sway the election?🤔

[@ratioxcmcsa263]

With spelling like that I think I could make a pretty good guess

[@rushnande3731]

I do not support EFF but I think it will take over in this or next decade. Every young black person supports EFF, if you want to see a true display of this go to SA Universities.

[@mariorobertovonpalace2729]

How many of the youth attend universities ? Probably a small minority overall.

[@rushnande3731]

@mariorobertovonpalace2729 No not at all over 50% of high school graduates do go to institutions of higher learning either universities or colleges. Ever since higher education was made free for the lower middle class and poor families.

[@Juice-de9hh]

A group of minorities discussing about the future of my land, ANC is still going to win because people don't trust you and they have valid reasons not to.

[@sandramace648]

Silly thinking

[@SirLMSwart]

Nobody is interested in a society or party that is owned by white Jewish men and white money.

[@lm_b5080]

unfortunately black children today will have a better future in europe, australia or other "white" countries and many do so as soon as they finish university. why? because these governments aren't corrupt + look after everyone regardless of colour. the DA is creating jobs for all in the WC with unemployment lowest in SA. but because of SA's history our black people will rather vote for corruption and leaders who steal, then for someone who is white

[@BradynHopking1991]

Did you actually watch the video? This has nothing to do with whiteness winning. As he mentioned Zuma will be the one that ends the ANCs majority. What white people or the DA do won’t change anything chief.

[@marcusmoonstein242]

Anybody who still trusts the ANC deserves the government they get. This country will turn into the next Zimbabwe and and the fools will keep voting ANC.

[@turmoil4360]

Mixed race and Indian? What is mixed race?

[@ayakhasokabo8816]

I think colourds

[@psylentrage]

Trevor Noah

[@superbowljoel01]

He's speaking in the UK. You can't use the word coloured there. They get uptight about it. But that's what he means by mixed race.

[@straatcaveman7503]

Uhh… pretty self explanatory. This is the UK, he can’t go around saying Coloured!

[@DumaM-ir7rk]

@ turmoil4360 where do you wanna classify mix race?

[@ankiahunke3250]

Yes communist anc