Can China still become the world’s largest economy? | Business Beyond

China managed the fastest sustained growth of any major economy ever recorded - catapulting it to second place behind the United States.
But today, its GDP growth is at near-historic lows. For the first time in two decades, its output fell behind that of the rest of Asia. Analysts believe that even the end of Zero Covid won’t signal the revival of Chinese economic growth as we know it.
In this video, we look at the economic headwinds the country is facing - and what they mean for Beijing’s race to becoming the world’s biggest economy.
Chapters
00:00 Introduction
02:00 Economy today & Zero Covid
03:31 History of economic rise
05:50 Mountain of Debt
11:15 Lack of Consumption
14:14 Demographic Change
17:55 International threats
21:42 Conclusion
Subscribe: kzbin.info...
#china #economy #boom
For more news go to: www.dw.com/en/
Follow DW on social media:
►Facebook: / deutschewellenews
►Twitter: / dwnews
►Instagram: / dwnews
►Twitch: / dwnews_hangout
Für Videos in deutscher Sprache besuchen Sie: / dwdeutsch

[@Riggsnic_co]

As a foreigner who lived through the entire duration of zero covid for the past 3 years in China, this is by far the most objective commentary I’ve seen on KZbin to date. Economists and business leaders are voicing concerns at the start of 2023 that the year could be a difficult one. JPMorgan Chase & Co. Chief Executive Jamie Dimon said Tuesday that the Federal Reserve may need to raise interest rates to 6% to fight inflation, higher than the peak level between 5% and 5.5% in 2023 that most Fed officials penciled in after their December meeting. Although I read an article of people that grossed profits up to $500k during this crash, what are the best stocks to buy now or put on a watchlist

[@hermanramos7092]

Emotionally-charged decisions to sell off large quantities of stocks or other investments now lock in your losses, removing any chance for future growth.

[@martingiavarini]

A 2020 Northwestern Mutual study found that 71% of U.S. adults admit their financial planning needs improvement. However, only 29% of Americans work with a financial advisor.

[@bob.weaver72]

Very true, a huge part of my portfolio growth has come during this bear market. I've been able to scale from $180K to $572K in a short period of time. I basically was just following the steps and guideline from my financial advisor. as long as you've professional help, you're good to go

[@hermanramos7092]

Mind if I ask you to recommend this particular coach you using their service? Seems you've figured it all out.

[@bob.weaver72]

Well i won't say i have...Her name is ‘Catherine Morrison Evans’ can't divulge much. Most likely, the internet should have her basic info, you can research if you like

[@bobbymainz1160]

Protecting your capital is much more important than making money. Basically because if you lose your capital, making money is much harder. ''Missing the train'' vs. ''losing your money''. There are a lot of trains, but if your money is gone, it's over.

[@chris-pj7rk]

Wall Street pitched so-called quality stocks with high profitability and low debt, as a kind of insurance against whatever the economy might throw at you. Quality stocks have underperformed the S&P500 this year, My $200k portfolio is down by approximately 20 %, any recommendations to scale up my returns on investment

[@stephaniestella213]

Nobody knows anything You need to create your own process, manage risk and stick to the plan, through thick or thin While also continuously learning from mistakes and improving.

[@johnlennon232]

Exactly why i enjoy market decisions being guided by a pro , seeing that their entire skillset is built around going long and short at the same time both employing risk management and market experience , been using a portfolio-coach for over 2years+ and I've netted over $3million in that time frame.

[@kimyoung8414]

@@johnlennon232 Do you mind sharing info on the adviser who assisted you? I'm 39 now and would love to grow my stock portfolio and plan my retirement

[@kimyoung8414]

@@johnlennon232 I just Googled his name and his website came up right away. It looks interesting so far. I'm going to book a call with him and let you know how it goes.Thanks

[@Raymondjohn2]

Some economists have projected that both the U.S. and parts of Europe could slip into a recession for a portion of 2023. A global recession, defined as a contraction in annual global per capita income, is more rare because China and emerging markets often grow faster than more developed economies. Essentially the world economy is considered to be in recession if economic growth falls behind population growth.

[@lipglosskitten2610]

My main concern now is how can we generate more revenue during quantitative times? I can't afford to see my savings crumble to dust.

[@hermanramos7092]

It's a delicate season now, so you can do little or nothing on your own. Hence I’ll suggest you get yourself a financial expert that can provide you with valuable financial information and assistance

[@Oly_laura]

Very true! I've been able to scale from $50K to $189k in this red season because my Financial Advisor figured out Defensive strategies which help portfolios be less vulnerable to market downturns

[@lipglosskitten2610]

@@Oly_laura How can I reach this adviser of yours? because I'm seeking for a more effective investment approach on my savings?

[@Oly_laura]

@@lipglosskitten2610 'Catherine Morrison Evans’ is the coach that guides me. She’s a verified coach and she helped me see that returns can be made in both bull and bear markets. She covers things like investing, insurance, making sure retirement is well funded and looking at ways to have a volatility buffer for investment risk, look - her up .

[@Jennapeters144]

My growth of 401k is 2.74% in the past year. In this environment does investing under a brokerage with a custodian outperform a 401k? should I seek a pro to grow my funds on brokerage acct or still hold? I have 5 years to retirement. Happy to discuss.

[@AanyaDarika_]

Mine was 8.16%, I used to dca into etfs but I reconsidered the strategy since I am still way behind after the massive downturn since Jan last year

[@AnkurYo]

Be careful not to be lured into the market too soon, this current situation has really opened my eyes to the importance of a good mentor on KZbin or elsewhere knowing what he/she is doing .

[@benalfredo]

the size of your retirement portfolio will overwhelmingly be a function of the performance of the stock and bond markets between now and when you start withdrawing from it.

[@Muller_Andr]

Private investing is the best way to go about the market right now, especially for near retirees, I've been in touch with a wealth manager for awhile now netted 370thousand this downturn, made it clear there's more to the markets than we average ones know

[@Javier_Rodri]

@@Muller_Andr who is this manager you use? I lost over 50000 already this year on Vanguard. Im in need of guidance from a financial-planner going forward.

[@alexispelletier7568]

Thanks mate for all the fantastic reporting and interviews what an education I am getting) never to old to learn even at 63 years!:)

[@michelemarini8740]

Banks exist for a reason, and if eliminated, would just spring up again because they are useful and needed. Cryptocurrencies will never change that, and it’s not clear to me why anyone ever thought they would.

[@carlosgil5024]

Are you sure "fun facts" are allowed to be true? I thought there was a rule as so many "fun facts" are, should you check them out, not facts at all.

[@jojiemiana3034]

I'm looking for how to contact Mr Tyler on venture into on a short term basis, I have about 6.3 btc sitting in my savings, what do you think I should be buying?

[@cadenboucher9741]

He is correct

[@rio1914]

Starting early is the best way of getting ahead to build wealth, investing remains a priority. The stock market has plenty of opportunities to earn a decent payouts, with the right skills and proper understanding of how the market works by Mr Tyler forex, so search on any social media in which you have at the moment.

[@The.ImperiumofMen]

I don't understand almost every single economy is "slowing down" why do they expect China to be different?

[@budgetking2591]

Because China economy was never slowing down before in recent history, thats the difference, it's not that hard to understand.......

[@advancetotabletop5328]

There’s a difference between “slowing down” and “crashing into a wall” not that I wished the USA started raising interest rates two years earlier (and not have QE in the first place).

[@falsch4761]

@@budgetking2591 You are wrong, Gordon Chang and Peter Zeihan said China collapsed 20 years ago. And continue to collapse every day. Graham Stephan famous youtuber said CHina now has collapse and chaos in the street. How that is hard to understand !! You need to study more

[@GoGoPooerRangers]

​@@falsch4761 don't be ridiculous. Everyone around the world would suffer if that happened, there is a difference between total collapse and stagnation. China will be facing the latter just like Japan. Just hyperbolic nonsense.

[@cinpeace353]

@@falsch4761 and you still believing them after they failed telling the truth for so many years. 🤣🤣

[@johnlennon232]

We can't really tell what will follow until after the inflation result comes in this February. Meanwhile, historical data have proven time and time again that stocks will always outperform bonds in the long run, so I'm sticking out my guns and I'm remaining in the market. I just need to pick out quality stocks, and I'm good to go. The problem is how to find them.

[@alexyoung3126]

The one effective technique I use is staying in touch with a financial coach for guidance. It might sound basic or generic, but getting in touch with a financial advisor was how I was able to outperform the market during the pandemic and raised a profit of roughly $170k within 3 months of investing.

[@joesphcu8975]

I completely agree, which is why I prefer to delegate daily decision-making to an investing coach. It is difficult for them to underperform given their specialised knowledge and research, as well as the fact that every one of their abilities is geared toward utilising risk for its asymmetrical potential, and mitigating it as a buffer against certain bad turns. I've been working with an investment coach for over two years, and have made over a quarter million dollars.

[@kimyoung8414]

@@joesphcu8975 My port-folio has been performing really poorly lately. I'm looking to change my strategy and use a coach. Can I possibly get in contact with your coach?

[@joesphcu8975]

Her name is Eileen Ruth Sparks. You could look her up and contact her yourself, if you want. She was a former Merrill Lynch analyst. That was how I got to know her.

[@kimyoung8414]

Thanks, I just googled her and I'm really impressed with her credentials. I reached out to her since I need all the assistance I can get.

[@jenniemcneil7821]

Most successful people always seek the ideas and experience of financial professionals that help tackle issues on wealth management and growth but claim to attain their success alone. To attain financial growth, you need a high degree of knowledge and experience from a professional to make your goals a reality. Mrs Keleen Marion saw me through my success

[@Tingting4306]

She knows her way around the crypto world .. she has been helping me increasing my portfolios everyday over a month now.

[@shawnkhatun9744]

@Juzteez 👆👆👆

[@elenakelly4806]

Wow I'm just shocked you mentioned expert Mrs Marion , thought I'm the only one trading with her

[@Christoph1888]

Thanks for the Chapters !!

[@jpa5038]

This never gets talked about. China was offered the current Western developed vaccines at the time but refused them. As a direct consequence, more people in China were infected and more died and the lock downs lasted that much longer. China's Nationalism made the pandemic worse than it had to be. It's a self-inflicted wound.

[@aslampervez2294]

Lol

[@jjjkkshen2836]

As far as i know,the death number is far behind of USA. While the population is times of USA. I appreciate the care from you guys,even one person in China died causes huge sensation,but no one cares even 1m died in USA.

[@prakorngirodkunkid7877]

That is not true. China lockdown longer time to wait for Covid less less dangerous they just stop lockdown so China has 2%.

[@jpa5038]

@Wiegraf based on the numbers the CCP releases? if you believe that nonsense I'd also recommend investing in some Trump NFTs.

[@jpa5038]

@@jjjkkshen2836 CCP numbers are a lie.

[@tommyfisher277]

The current issue facing the United States is that they have lost their industrial foundation and just have guns and overprinted money to trade. I'm happy that before I deemed them bad investments, I sold off the majority of my important assets on the financial market at a premium price. The American economy is currently struggling as a result of their poor assessment of China.

[@mvanwie]

@@Aaravpatel61519_ I kinda disagree to selling too. Yes, a lot of business would take a loss due to the recession or maybe depression around the corner but After every downturn comes a boom. Also this is why financial planning is important. Business who have planned forehand would thrive despite. Take myself, I’ve been able to accumulate close to a 20% increase on roi this bear season following guides from • Yvonne Annette Lively. Basically, to the best of what I understand, it’s more about knowing when to get in and get out.

[@Gregfreemann]

@@mvanwie yvonne annette lively? Can we look her up?

[@hueymorello5115]

@@Gregfreemann I sure did. Pretty detailed but quite pricy

[@philipb2134]

You might be picking winners and losers according to your preferred or paid exaggerations. US industrial production has been rather robust in 2022.

[@patrickt49]

Everything hinges on the American economy. China is where it is because of foreign investment. As they agitate the world, this will become an issue as companies move to countries like Vietnam or India to continue production. There's a reason why having China in your investment portfolio is considered risky. It's because growth is volatile. It's not guaranteed.

[@higgsboson9212]

To be honest, there is not that large inventive to pursue a high growth rate for China now, especially due to the de-coupling and cold war with US. They don't need that much trade surplus (USD) from US as United States tries to completely cut the technology connection with China. To have a more independent and sustainable economic model, China does need to slow down the nominal growth rate and rebalance their internal resource. I don't think China really cares about being "the largest economy" at all.

[@samgooi1905]

👍

[@RadzHexz]

Bot

[@ftye2790]

That's the point. If wo compare the stratege of China and USA, we will find china's major concern is how to develop itslef and solve domestic problem . while USA is how to restrict the second place country.

[@Panther-li5ft]

Come in Albania 🇦🇱🇨🇳😁🕊️💗😁🕊️💗

[@arreydharma5784]

Agree. They focused to develop themselves, while west is busy putting their nose to everybodys business

[@papano6450]

It’s like watching a Peter Zeihan presentation about a year too late 😂

[@kwesikwansakennedy2196]

I know right And I thought Zeihan was too pessimistic 😂😂

[@landslordmukhabela6122]

Its like sending aid after annexation😇😂

[@ModerateObserver]

But more objective and less of a hot take i.e. fewer eye-rolls and no 'China is going to collapse by 2030' rhetoric

[@silveriver9]

Just another China-bashing report by "China-Experts" that will be proven wrong 😂

[@jordie4423]

It’s better for the world to contain China. Not because Chinese people are bad but it’s totalitarian system is a great danger for the western way of living. They present totalitarianism as an alternative for the liberal world

[@rgg1642]

Most economists/experts won't be able to predict what will happen to the economy in the city/town they live in. But they confidently speak of a large country which has grown in an unprecedented way.

[@bitboycryptochanne1]

For more information👆👆ʟᴇᴛ'ꜱ ᴛᴀʟᴋ ɴᴏᴡ👍📝ᴛᴇʟᴇɢʀᴀ'ᴍ ʀɪɢʜᴛ ᴀᴡᴀʏ ✍️🤙

[@Raymanujan]

Bingo!

[@aoteman184]

The economists/experts may be good at analyse the macroscopic economy rather than a little town.

[@ill_bred_demon9059]

Sometimes the big picture is easier to predict than a small section. A doctor could tell you that if a thousand women get pregnant the boy/girl breakdown will be somewhere between 480-520, but they can't tell you which women will get pregnant with which gender

[@THEO-ou4dg]

Well yes predicting the future is very difficult. But economists can definitely Analyse problems very well, which is why this video is very informative

[@JamesGilmore-rz8hj]

Excellent video.. very informative. Thank you.

[@obsidianstatue]

These economic "experts" featured are a funny bunch 1) debt in China is in RMB, ie their own currency 2) The question of China surpassing the US is a structural question, NOT one about growth rates, China can have 10% growth rate overnight, if it loosen the properties sector So it's not about growth rate, it's about getting rid of low end manufacturing, raising wages in the services sector, because in services sector, wages are determined by the wealth of customer, not worker efficiency. 3) China will also need to internationalize the RMB more, so that China's debt can become the world's debt, just like what the EU and the US does With all 3 steps, and a steady population of more than EU+US+Japan+Australia, China can and will surpass the US in economic size.

[@boardjk3595]

agree with you. Properties sector is a big problem is cn now.But the gov is trying to solve it, let's see what will happen

[@martinfalkenberg64]

16:49 "Demographic change is a long term phenomenon. So the Chinese government still has room to respond" I would argue the opposite. Population decline is build into the population structure already. Even if the fertile rate were to go up to 3 children per woman today, the population would still shrink, because there are few young women. Just showing a picture of the population urn would let people understand the situation much better, very easily.

[@thomasherrin6798]

Yes it's a bit trickier because the Mother of child bearing age might be looking after the parents/ grandparents as well as trying to bring up the proposed 3 children and part time working, that's why their birth rate is only 1.14 in the first place!?!

[@snslifestyleorg]

Clearly you're ignorant that there are millions of young women in neighboring countries who marry Chinese men.

[@shamimkhan9026]

Bro they have 1.4b people. Billions not millions!! Now they also have Hongkong. If they get Taiwan who will stop them lol

[@sonneh86]

@@shamimkhan9026 they will never get Taiwan. Just like with Ukraine people fighting for Freedom will always prevail

[@isaacisaac2380]

@sonneh; Reunification is inevitable. Peaceful or bloody is the question.

[@jayschmidt154]

amazing episode and great reporter! I love dw!

[@jordie4423]

It’s better for the world to contain China. Not because Chinese people are bad but it’s totalitarian system is a great danger for the western way of living. They present totalitarianism as an alternative for the liberal world

[@ricktasker8248]

Well done, thanks.

[@farn1991]

Greeting. These seem to be a very interesting interview. Is there a longer version of it?

[@ryansumbele3552]

High quality content , very insightful

[@thegouda123]

Fantastic summation. Keep up the good work. And thank you for just excellent reporting.

[@morganangel340]

a lot of COPIUM 😂😂😂

[@ahparseh6026]

Basically , China most important challenges for coming years should be improvement of both labor and capital productivity growth and maintaining a proper export growth rate to cope with economic growth and development obstacles.

[@patriciapasterick7396]

WHEN EVERYONE IS IN A STATE OF CONFUSION THERE WILL ALWAYS BE A VERY IMPORTANT [KEY] APPEARING WHETHER IT IS A NOBLE PERSON OR A LOW EBB EXPERIENCE BUT IN CONCLUSION WILLINGNESS TO CHANGE WILL LEAD TO A BETTER DIRECTION

[@hommequiet]

Marie Sina, well done. The episode was amazing to watch. DW’s team, congrats and thank you.

[@singhk7240]

knowledgeable content and video

[@bikepacker9850]

Great reporting

[@plutopluto6699]

Excellent program!

[@teogeorge2203]

May I ask, at present time if not China, who else, US, UK, EU or India? Who has the complete supply chains, efficient workforce and sound infrastructure linking the whole country.

[@jimchang231]

These so called economists did not speak based on fact but on their imagination.

[@teogeorge2203]

@@jimchang231 But sorry to say, they are always wrong and distorted facts if any.

[@ratanshetty9870]

India ..an emerging super power

[@leizhang1727]

India. The next super power in 22nd century 🎉

[@preetkanwarsinghsuri]

@@ratanshetty9870 Not possible

[@budgetking2591]

They were on track, but then there was Xi Jin Ping to stagnate the growth.

[@jetli740]

how ignorance can you get?

[@fraccozeta]

maybe

[@lif6737]

@@jetli740 how ignorance get you?

[@jetli740]

@@lif6737 ignorance already got hold of you 😂😂

[@omarionbayley9721]

U need to blame the people too, for eating bats

[@nicedineshnagarkoti-hw6bk]

Great analysis information about the economy

[@americaneagle76]

VERY INFORMATIVE.

[@adrianrenteriaramos340]

Yes

[@anthonydhan]

Many developing economies adopted exports as the way to drive their development forward. However, once a country reaches the middle income level such as China, it can no longer compete with countries with even cheaper labor costs, and has difficulties competing against advanced economies for advanced high value added sectors. This is often referred to as the “Middle Income Trap”. With an aging demographic and highly indebted economy, the PRC has peaked and will decline in power and wealth relative to its geopolitical competitors. Many folks think that being the biggest exporter, the largest manufacturer, and having the biggest volume of trade are sources of strength. In reality, these are weaknesses. Exporters rely on the good will of countries willing to import from the exporter. With massive military buildup, and threatening language, many of those importing countries are working very hard to find alternative sources. Being the largest manufacturer crowds out other more high value sectors and traps the country in the middle income stage forever. And relying so much on trade exposes China’s economy to the health of its customer countries and sources raw material needed to make the manufactured goods. Since President Xi made a decision to antagonize and threaten other countries by having border disputes with every neighbor, speak belligerently on the world stage with “Wolf Warrior” diplomacy, and accelerate spending on the military that is clearly intended to war with the West, why should we be surprised to find many countries now acting to counter balance the PRC, not only the US but also countries like the UK, Australia, and Japan. The only way for the Chinese people to get their great nation out of the middle income trap is to hope that the CCP liberalizes the country and permit more freedom for its people, and unleash the creative power of the Chinese people. But doing so will threaten the monopoly on power that the CCP enjoys and so the CCP will never permit that. That is a tragic situation.

[@josephda360]

I love your breakdown.

[@gabrieljean-batiste2006]

As someone who has studied China, I must say your analysis is spot-on.

[@gekzify]

Thank you, succinct and nuanced

[@Michael45007]

Well said!

[@mat3714]

Refreshing, long messages usually collapses on self defeating arguments and pointless detours. Stayed on point and stayed relevant. 👍

[@MrShpoulsen]

Local government are legally not allowed to sell land, only lease it. The big question is what happens to the property when the lease ends and the land is returned to the local government. One would imagine that it would be used as a tax and people living there would need to pay to lease for another term inorder to not have their homes demolished. This would truly crash the Chinese real-estate market since this risk is not calculated into current prices.

[@user-xs3ld9bk7s]

事實上，在中國大陸，所有七十年產權到期的房子將被拆除，而中國政府將建造一批新的房屋讓房屋被拆除的人民居住，這些房屋往往比以前的房屋面積更大，並且不需要這些人付錢，我說的這件事實際上已經有過實踐，我認為你不應該通過這些條例來臆想政府做出的行動究竟是什麼樣的，這導致你的評論不夠客觀🤔

[@user-9qGdfBTprb]

As far as I can remember, the western media has been saying "China's economy is going to be destroyed" for at least two decades, but China has gradually changed from one of the poorest countries in the world to the world's largest economy. Success is same with failure. It's not happened suddenly, I believe that as long as people's belief and pursuit of success remain unchanged, things will develop in a good place, it doesn't matter which country you are from. So I believe that China will continue to grow, people should appreciate and seek good opportunities in it, it will be good for the whole world.

[@Agathe.May...]

China was poor thanks to communism, it was a plague to this country and still is... we can only hope that Chinese will see it asap.

[@ryanjackson1999]

as far as i remember (like 2006) western media was saying it was inevitable China would surpass the US economically. Its only the past few months the narrative has begun to shift at all

[@good2goskee]

Their demographics are a NIGHTMARE. The ethos about buying China has not changed since the 80s. Hence, nobody seeks Chinese goods because they are the best brand, best quality, most innovative... nope. They buy Chinese products because they are cheap, that's it. This strategy can only be maintained for so long before internal pressures where domestics wanting higher wages and international pressures where tech in Western countries use tech to replace low-paid Chinese workers and places like Vietnam or Indonesia or India being more efficient and being cheaper with better geo-political relations with the West.

[@NorCalMoDo]

@@good2goskee partially true

[@gray8741236]

Actually, I don't remember a major media saying China's economy will be destroyed in the last two decades.

[@bernardomonroy7872]

Very nice economic report 👍

[@morganangel340]

yes... a lot of COPIUM 😂😂😂

[@guidosarduci6664]

China is not the only game in town. There are plenty of other countries on this planet to invest in and get a good ROI. Countries that are much more friendly to human rights and freedoms. Check with your investor ask for options when investing.

[@fromfareast3070]

Well, the nature of investment doesnt really care about human right. They care about profit. They talk like they care, but they act exacly opposite, like union busting.

[@ernestkhalimov1007]

Literally every country is in demographic decline bruh China is simply better

[@ncs9753]

"Freedoms" lol. What does that even mean? One of my friend got cancelled from his job in US because he insisted that there are only 2 genders. So much for freedom of speech. In China or Russia or Iran or whatever US "enemy countries" he can totally proclaim "there are only 2 genders" in any company and he would never get cancelled because China actually respect freedom!

[@anohneemel3403]

@@ernestkhalimov1007 Every to-the-moon especially NIO stock dropped like a rock. I've pulled every single cent out of it and put them into SP500 for now.

[@mexicanaenchina]

Well I live in a China and China has proven many countries wrong over and over again. So I wouldn’t be fast to declare they won’t 😅. I’ll check this comment after a couple of years after and let’s see then. And to be honest maybe it’s time for another country to rise ?

[@captives6479]

This Western narrative is made for people living in their bubbles.

[@whitebarackobama7999]

How's the virus situation there?

[@itch4travel]

YES

[@oneday663]

The world’s largest economy is never built on cheap labour and the demographic change is the test for China if it could be the top one. It's like you can't be the top economy by selling mine or oil, the key factors are finance, military(tech) and international narrative.

[@agatastaniak7459]

Hard to be the world largest economy without reinvesting the profits, upgrading technology and without strong internal market. World largest economies for example achieve higher productuvity of labour by combination of both more well -paid and less intense human labour and higher investment in automation and digitalization, whereas at the same time higher budget of free time of more well-paid people gives a boost to economy with more time and more opportunitities to spend on consumer goods and services related to hobbies or sports. So yes, without a healthy demography it's a switch that might be difficult to make for China and much easier to make for Africa as a continent or for India. It does take human potential.

[@IndiaVirus-OriginofCovid]

China too busy developing other nations when they need to focus at home... Same mistake as the US... smh.

[@luistotoro]

Well... the USA literally became the largest economy on slave labour so I'm not so sure about that

[@Sinkorswim1225]

Also the need for agriculture which isn't China's strong suit along with a shrinking population.

[@lebohang8405]

Slavery and Global wars for resource exploitation built US economy. We now see that it is not sustainable

[@MarioSeoane]

German news just realizing what American geopolitical analyst have been mentioning for almost a decade now. China without the US is nothing. No surprise why Germany is in such a hurry now to catching up with the Americans I'm terms of energy.

[@falsch4761]

American always have the best analysist. Gordon Chang Already predicted China Collapse in 2000, KZbinr Graham Stephan in 30 days. American geo political analyst in Invading Vietnam, Iraq , Afghan are the best analyst out there. Such foresight only can be from American Analyst like yourself

[@hughmungus2760]

american geopolitical experts have been getting china wrong since forever.

[@evanackerman9934]

Very good article

[@FF7852]

Great video

[@user-oj4gk6re2t]

I guess China don't care number 1 or 2. Only hope that it citizen live well.

[@johnnytsang2047]

Well said 👏👏🇨🇳

[@samg.5165]

That's a naive viewpoint. Setting nationalistic pride aside, there are plenty of instances in which being number one, two or even ten means being able to provide security, opportunities or a higher quality of life for your citizens. Take Taiwan for example; if China was powerful enough to easily seize its industries and take over the South-East Asian shipping routes, the mainland would be considerably wealthier for it. But since the US is currently the stronger power, they're the ones reaping the benefits. Naturally, China is eyeing the region ever more intensely. Don't fool yourself. China is as ambitious as any other great power.

[@samg.5165]

​@张子嘉 Indeed. But Taiwan and the West have made their own choice.

[@user-kf9lv6cg5b]

Me, too hope you guys have happy lifes

[@frankiechiuh3401]

To be honest, many “experts” here either do not know China well or are just too “mono-vision”. There might read economic data but not technological & innovation data. If China’s HSR is an “white-elephant”, it might be some specific routes that are suffering long term losses, but overall “NETWORK”, will be bringing revenue to other industries like tourism, hospitality, F&B, manufacturing and primary produce, other transportation, etc. Its infrastructure is benefiting most of the people, e.g. people used to work in the cities are “migrating” back to rural home towns, goods & services can be transported out, tourists are flowing in, a more balanced commerce around the country. Compare the “rust belts” in US, UK & Europe, China has better management in people & industry development.

[@georgeystang]

The analysis is fairly comprehensive. The fact that a country with that many people can solve a lot of challenge that many countries cannot. The real challenge is how to overcome the red tapes and internal restrictions to make best use of talents it has. The future is far from certain.

[@thomas-marx]

Thanks

[@marethmok5635]

Excellent report!

[@amanverma7033]

Democracy may not give you rapid economic progress but it gives u respect and dignity which every human being want

[@iggy5347]

I cant breathe. That is so sweet of you

[@sheehyjessica1991]

I would rather live in wealthy than the dignity and respect.

[@jjjkkshen2836]

Did i say i want?why every human being wants?is this democracy logic?

[@jjjkkshen2836]

Did i say i want?why every human being wants?is this democracy logic?

[@jadoei13]

I think more importantly it allows you to get rid of bad leaders in a peaceful and organised way. For China to get rid of Xi, a lot has to be risked. For the US to get rid of Biden or Germany to get rid of Scholz, well they simply vote for someone else next time.

[@leobrsp]

DW News could cover the world's major economies the way it has on this Business Beyond episode. I loved it.

[@xiaohanjiang4960]

Nice video!

[@Zonker66]

I would think the only way China can exceed all other economies is if we let present conditions mess up even more than they have... and I find that tough to imagine. That's leaving out their real estate woes, which are massive.

[@wildestcowboy2668]

China is buying your farm lands and guess what they are going to do with it.

[@billsykes5392]

The biggest threat in the short-medium term is not demographic decline or increased competition for manufacturing in SE Asia; it’s the massively overleveraged real estate sector, which itself underpins many other economic issues. How can China ever hope to become a more consumption-oriented economy and escape the middle income trap or expect families to have more children when the house price to income ratio is so absurdly high? In abandoning the 3 red lines policy, the CCP is creating a ticking time bomb and when that bubble bursts it spells the end of the China as we know it today.

[@nesttea2239]

True, China has many ticking time bombs: loss of foreign investment, crashing housing economy, and a dwindling population. China showed their hand too soon, they should have waited another decade at least before their wolf warrior posturing. They are not powerful enough for wolf warrior to work effectively on all world powers.

[@wenyichen5515]

That you can rest assured. From what we observe today, house prices are in a decline already, unfavored by authority who ordered that prices of them cannot fall. On these matters Chinese people know how to obey and endure. They can suffer a lot!😅

[@danielcardin7506]

Easy fix. China can stop pretending that they have been holding RMB low against the USD and then print a bunch of them. Monetize all that debt. Dispossess lenders in favor of the profligate government and save the day. It's what they're planning anyway.

[@pingzhang3387]

​@@danielcardin7506中国不会大量印制人民币，这只会帮助美国摆脱它自身的泡沫问题，美国大量印发美元最终还是会反噬自身，只要美国收割不了国外的便宜资产，自身的泡沫就会比中国提前破灭

[@candidkamerad]

Outstanding report. Danke DW!

[@123works]

Great Documentary 👍

[@pepsee0]

The production of resources necessary for economic growth and development has significant geopolitical implications. Some countries rich in natural resources may become too powerful if they can dominate the global market and control the supply of these resources. This can lead to political and economic instability and the exploitation of smaller, less powerful nations. However, it is also essential to recognize that all countries have the right to pursue economic interests and develop resources. The challenge is to do so responsibly and sustainably, with respect for human rights, the environment, and the needs of future generations. International cooperation and dialogue can play a crucial role in promoting responsible resource management and preventing the emergence of dangerous powers. Countries can create a more stable and prosperous world by working together to address common challenges and promote shared values.

[@tedmoss]

Dream on.

[@pepsee0]

@@tedmoss Sure, most do :)

[@Replicant-by1eh]

A whole lot of nothing.

[@steveloren]

Ggggg😅😊 14:18 😅😅

[@rockbailey8516]

That was a lot big words for a very simple problem. The CCP is the enemy. We should not sell them anything , nothing. Ever for any reason .

[@maalat]

I think the global economic community should stop the competition of who has the highest gdp. That causes inflation

[@mdaniels6311]

So countries should just intentionally not develop?

[@detectiveofmoneypolitics]

Economic investigator Frank G Melbourne Australia is still watching this very informative and interesting content cheers Frank

[@allenzhang6285]

作为一个中国人 我很惊讶你们可以看得这么准确而透彻 地方债 房地产企业债 高房价 高育儿成本 高养老风险 养老金制度脆弱且不公平(农村老人只有100元人名币的退休金 公务员平均是他们的八十倍以上) 等等问题 共同造就了严峻的人口问题 对于已经在执行的延迟退休我们只能接受 没有任何方法反对 当然 但相比中国 美国目前的情况更糟糕也更迫在眉睫 并且我也认同中国GDP如果像超过美国 现在只能靠美国经济崩溃了 主动超过基本不可能 最后羡慕你们可以自由的谈论政治

[@dixonhill1108]

The real GDP of China peaked in 2014, and it's receding faster than my hairline.

[@hughmungus2760]

lol. if you live in the US which hasn't seen any real improvements in standard of living except growth in digits on a screen for some billionaires since the 90s. then that might explain why you might think that, but no. The standard of living in china has tangibly improved since 2014. Almost every chinese person can tell you that.

[@joeblack4436]

It's interesting to me to learn that the housing bubble was artificially, if unintentionally (no one wants a bubble) inflated. Silly me, I assumed the massive housing projects were somewhat driven by free market drivers, and that the crisis was messily and carelessly triggered. This while it seems then that there was just a desperate move to pop the bubble and take the pain.

[@club4Millennium]

‘CINO’ Capitalism in the name only. Any system that was established in pretense with a falsehood foundation would not stand the test of time. Mixing Communism with copied principles of capitalism as a prop would only result in bogus development devoid of strong economic fundamentals.

[@awjames1121]

The housimg problem has cause many usa interest very hugh loss.china will just let those involves go bankeruptcy and and smatr chinese investor will come in buy at floor price and make thing works and laughimg to banks..??? So the losser is usa$$$. Gone for ever...

[@joeblack4436]

@@awjames1121What's bothering you?

[@sanfordji]

A good point sir. As a Chinese, the most intolerable thing the government does is intentionally raise the house price. The house price right now is so high that it's impossible for a young man to buy one in a city like Beijing or Shanghai. The house price is about 100 years total salaries of an educated young man(average salary) so you can imagine how exorbitant it is. Even in smaller city not like Beiijng and Shanghai, house price is still irrationally high. These are all the government's ruthless strategies for GDP, in a way that all the citizens' money is put into the house, with even 20 or 30 years loan from bank. But this is obviously unsustainable, and now many young people have seen through this conspiracy, they refuse to buy houses and start '躺平' right now. So this is why China's GDP increased low in recent years and the outlook is bleak.

[@joeblack4436]

@@sanfordji That sounds tough. The worst thing about a housing bubble is when somebody already bought a house at a high value and is now in debt, but then the bubble goes pop, and the value of properties start falling. Or they keep rates and taxes high to reflect the old sky high value. Leaving people with high debt and running expenses on properties that are not worth nearly as much. One way or the other the population is always used as a buffer to ease such "little mishaps". It's never the ones who make all the clever plans who end up paying. I mean for most people buying a home is only the most meaningful and significant expense they'll ever make. It's really only a tiny little inconvenience (sarcasm of course). Better to just default and rent in such cases tbh.

[@W_Bin]

13:00 why are houses expensive when there is an oversupply?

[@freedloh9049]

Yes!

[@chaoliu5092]

Given the fact that the population of China is four to five times than that of US, the average GDP is merely 20% to 25% of the most western developed countries even China somehow takes over US (a lot of luck needed..) as the largest economy. It is still a developing country in any sense. The world needs developing countries, for instance to produce low-cost products. At the end, whether developed or developing is just relative and they will always exist simultaneously

[@mdaniels6311]

True but bear in mind the is us extremely unequal meaning most of that money isn't actually experienced by most of the population. Thr bottom 50% of Americans haven't seen a pay rise since 1970.

[@sandponics]

@@mdaniels6311 While to top 80% of Chinese have had massive pay rises since the 1970s, and the bottom 20% ain't doing too bad either.

[@haha-eg8fj]

@@sandponics part-time salary at Starbucks in China is $2.5/ hour in Beijing. If you think that pay is good, think about how much does Starbucks pay in Washington D.C.?

[@joem0088]

GDP comparison has little utlility. If you take China's top 10% earners their standard of living and wealth is comparable to the top 20% of the West. In tech the West is actually competiting with this top tier, not with all of China. And they are doing very well in all tech categories. Look at the independent Tech Tracker around. China leads in many categories too many to detail here.

[@maverickcruise]

@@haha-eg8fj The cost of rice in China is less than 30c what is the cost of rice in US?

[@TheRealIronMan]

Yes, China's GDP was at 10% in 2010, but EU's growth was at 4%, most American financial institutions forecast China's growth at 5.0-5.3% in 2033 while the EU will be having negative growth, its all relative, China can't have really high growth rate when we are in a global recession, but the growth rate is still miles ahead of the west lol

[@okinawanah3463]

how do you measure that their numbers are accurate considering everything is state owned

[@user-mj9tr3ym5t]

@@okinawanah3463 no one cares if you believe or not they are growing none the less at that percentage 😂

[@Tmb1112]

But the comparison isn’t between China and “the West.” This video is asking if they’ll become number 1. That means just going up against the US. The EU’s growth might be on the decline and could be in the negatives by the 2030s, but the US’ growth has remained relatively stable over the past decades. China needed the 10% growth rate to catch up. If it doesn’t catch up in the next few years and drops to below 5% soon, and stays that way, it won’t pass the US. US just had over 5% growth in 2021, so China will struggle to catch up.

[@uk7769]

China growth even at 5% is unsustainable in this new post pandemic world. And china is authoritarian communist government. China is collapsing and will fall. US dollar is the world's reserve currency, has a global navy, and will dominate for the foreseeable future. Russia and China are screwed in too many ways.

[@fooksengloke3625]

@@Tmb1112 Even with 5% growth, China is adding an India to its economy every 5 to 6 years and to overtake the US before the end of the decade. That is not too bad

[@TheMarcinM]

Better than blomberg. I subscribed after that episode.

[@andrianomananalahifotsy5751]

Interesting doc

[@marklandrebe3521]

With a shrinking population, not enough workers to do so

[@africarenaissance7607]

Mmmmh! for the next two decades the shrinking population will notseverely affect the manufacturing workers

[@jeffreykalb9752]

@@africarenaissance7607 It already has. China's labor costs are twice that of Mexico. And it's only going to get worse. They are toast.

[@humpydumpy2432]

Do'nt worry .China will manage it's population.

[@Bk6346]

400 million are 25 or younger that more than the population of the USA.

[@nsevv]

India population is growing rapidly and has already surpassed china pop. And india demographic is extremely young.

[@sandro-nigris]

Excellent report. Very professional. You guys did a great job!

[@silveriver9]

Just another China-bashing report by "China-Experts" that will be proven wrong 😂

[@sanderhoefsloot6852]

Incredible, video. Nice to see my lecturer Jue Wang in here as an expert.

[@willzhong2229]

看到如此多人这么说, 我就安心了. 2029年, 再回来看看结果如何. 一定是一件很有意思的事情.

[@CarlosRodriguez-hb3vq]

Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future

[@morganangel340]

a lot of COPIUM 😂😂😂

[@kkhpd9097]

DW and other Western media should equally be worried about its own economy. Efforts and focus are needed to solve their own problems rather than dispensing their resources to speculate the fall of China.

[@vincentinchoco5625]

Western economies are open book . You can see and read all over newspapers and business news. They are transparent, you can report without fear of retributions.

[@louieuy7607]

Dubai: build it and they will come China: build it and keep building

[@TheLooking4sunset]

So what, it is still a mighty land, with a unique and utmost significant culture

[@Alex-gd9li]

It is a shame you didn’t mention much about Xi Xing Ping’s reversal of many of the market liberal policies that made China successful in the first place.

[@TheKkpop1]

Hi troll, pls name them one by one. Whereas I can name US is threatening global trades with MAGA.

[@Alex-gd9li]

@@TheKkpop1 你好中国机器人 Or maybe привет русский бот

[@TheKkpop1]

@@Alex-gd9li More countries trade with China nowadays. People are sick of your western cold war mentality, they shy away, especially from US and NATO war mongering.

[@payla8308]

@@Alex-gd9li 🤣🤣🤣 Nice.

[@snow3338]

Bro it's Xi Jinping not Xi Xing Ping

[@sandponics]

When an unstoppable force meets an immovable object, something has got to give.

[@ekayonosuwito3298]

Yes, of course. 👍👍👍

[@elvenkind6072]

As usual great content from DW. One of the few channels I've seen here on KZbin that constantly publish quality content that don't seem to belong here, but rather on official TV-channels, and certainly not published for free. So I'm really thankful, as a person with no TV-connection, but only a PC with internet. Have a great weekend everyone! From Alv, Norway

[@ConfusedDemon]

its substantial

[@a.jaeger5146]

17:28 - might this be stock footage from Shinagawa station in Tokyo, rather than China?

[@alfredyap14]

Question: is DW really a German media? How come it sounds similar to CNN & BBC? Where is the details and methodical German way of looking and analysing things and events?

[@davidadebanjo1277]

Lol I assume DW is a Western media studio and Western media doesn’t report anything that doesn’t fit their political narrative

[@frankfeng4728]

There are so many experts. I'm impressed.

[@xila-man8249]

Unfortunately no Chinese experts

[@MANNY33100]

It already is in terms of GDP, PPP.

[@peterbirks1]

Great package on China becoming the world's largest economy... Well done Marie.

[@bonkersblock]

China relies on imports of raw materials to make high value products! Unlike United States that can source its industrial materials locally or from Canada!

[@falsch4761]

Thank you for noticing how American have contructed vassalage system. you are very wise

[@TheKkpop1]

@@falsch4761 Correct!!! That includes Mexico too.

[@hughmungus2760]

give it another few years china can source all its minerals from Russia and central asia.

[@fooksengloke3625]

Except for Rare Earth that all modern alloy metals for aircraft and semi-conductors come from.

[@funbarsolaris2822]

Yes... except for the most important materials for the next century which are rare earth minerals... 90% of which are in China

[@think_again82]

the interviewees explained it very well

[@cinpeace353]

Fits their narratives. 😉

[@silveriver9]

Just another China-bashing report by "China-Experts" that will be proven wrong 😂

[@akashbanerjee6272]

In a news video you shared in 2023, you showed the GDP figures of countries of 2021.

[@_hnghngdv9113]

感慨万千

[@M3ganwillslay]

Warning : w.u....mao bots in comments

[@iggy5347]

Lots of bogan comments too

[@humpydumpy2432]

Let us compare economic growth of India, China, America and Japan in the last 3 years: 1-INDIA🇮🇳 2020-21- 7.3% (contraction) 2021-22- 8.7% 2022- 23- 6.5% (approx) Average- 2.63% 2- CHINA🇨🇳 2020- 2.2% 2021- 8.4% 2022- 3% Average-4.53% 3- USA 🇺🇲 2020- -3.5% ( contraction) 2021- 5.7% 2022- 1.6% Average- 1.27% 4- JAPAN🇯🇵 2020- -4.5% ( Contraction) 2021- 1.7% 2022- 1.7% Average- -0.37% (contraction) Stop propoganda against China

[@voterfraud4creepyjoe60]

If your economy is centered on manufactured exports, it means growth of your own economy is contingent on the growth of your trade partners, China in order to grow, needs a strong US and Europe to fuel the demand for manufactured goods, this means that China cannot, under its current economic model surpass the economy of its trade partners.

[@oscarprieto9013]

ASEAN is China's largest trading partner

[@jacobmee]

Not really. As long as you’re strong, anyone have to buy things from you. No matter where you are.

[@ibrahimtouman2279]

false logic, there is no such economic rule!!

[@ciybersal9833]

For now only. ASEAN is growing and is China's major trading partner. So are others middle East India Brazil Africa all growing fast. China has already tapped into these fast growing regions so it's hedged it's moves.

[@andia968]

Export only constitute 17.7 percent of total china gdp in 2020. They have long realized that dependency on export is a bad idea and have diversified their economy since.export isnt a limiter to china growth

[@hanskostka6788]

economy economy economy GDP - isn't there another way to express health, happiness, education, intelligence and satisfaction of people

[@knowing1100]

Hope we can achieve a global economy that encompass national economies like cities within that system. This is the safest way for human survival.

[@bruceleroy61]

Well reality shows that globalism has nothing with safe human survival. Please readjust your mind not to covet globalism for its purpose is only for control

[@sandponics]

I might be heading for the hills.

[@ashay33]

yes but the question is would it be as dominant as US was in its height and to some extent today.

[@sandponics]

Same with the UK, and Rome etc.

[@bjrnhjortshjandersen1286]

It will need huge reforms and upgrading of the population's skills .....I believe it will stagnate as a low-cost country limited by its export potential. So much of the economy produces worthless assets based on debt and internal development seems now to be more and more driven by ideology not by economics and creation of real value.

[@thiosemicarbizidebenzoylal2921]

Everything in your home in Sweden comes from a Chinese supplier?

[@bjrnhjortshjandersen1286]

@@thiosemicarbizidebenzoylal2921 Not too much. It comes from US Europe and China mostly. Interesting tag you have :-)

[@andia968]

Export only constitute 17.7 percent of total china gdp in 2020. They have long realized that dependency on export is a bad idea and have diversified their economy since.export isnt a limiter to china growth

[@thiosemicarbizidebenzoylal2921]

@@andia968 ALL base metals and chemicals come from China. Its never coming back to the west.

[@thiosemicarbizidebenzoylal2921]

@@bjrnhjortshjandersen1286 ALL base metals and chemicals come from China.

[@arreydharma5784]

Im just wondering, do these so called "expert" ever visited China? What they sau is so out of touch.I just went to shenzhen, and i find their ratio of income and cost of living to be still very affordable, compared to last year visit to LA.

[@terrytang7641]

yes

[@michelpierre3153]

*You are such a blessing to this generation and have inspired me in many ways. I kindly ask; what’s your opinion on the best way to make money in 2023?*

[@michelpierre3153]

@Esposito Marino I am very interested in investing and have kept aside a good amount for this purpose. I ask politely; what’s your advice to anyone who wish to invest?

[@michelpierre3153]

@Esposito Marino My goal 2023 is to become financially stable and rich as well. I appreciate the kind replies and promise to reach out to Lucy Victoria Fernandez (the united base Financial adviser ).

[@melquisedecrivers-suarez4618]

China needs USA 🇺🇸 consumers

[@victorye7150]

The US needs China too.

[@ernestkhalimov1007]

Yes and no. Since China has been growing it's consumer base across Asia Africa and Eastern Europe and generating employment across the board to end the US share of it's export market.

[@daxtynminn3415]

@@ernestkhalimov1007 China can't replace a US sized market. Even Europe can't.

[@ernestkhalimov1007]

@@daxtynminn3415 Europe can't because the US subverts them from doing so and plus European leaders are subservient to Washington and obey it's command. Same for Japan who was much closer but was destroyed by the US fabricated Plaza Accords that sent their economy down the drain and destroyed their potential but only because Japanese leadership and business are also subservient to Washington. China is an entirely different case because the master and servant dynamic doesn't exist between the US and China. Plus China is building it's consumer base across Africa and Eurasia where the vast majority of the world lives.

[@daxtynminn3415]

@@ernestkhalimov1007 I don’t think you understand. African and Asian countries are still very poor and can’t buy up Chinese exports the way the US and Europe can. Also, the master and servant dynamic existed between America and China until about 2018. The Chinese know who holds the most cards in the relationship.