Can Coronavirus cool our climate?

Coronavirus, or more specifically COVID-19, is understandably dominating our thoughts and everyday lives right now. Staying safe and saving as many lives as possible are, quite rightly, top priority for our governments. But buried away in the back rooms of power, teams of bureaucrats are also trying to agree exactly what policies to employ as we come out of this pandemic, and whether we might actually have a once in a lifetime opportunity to reshape the way we run our societies.
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Research links
edition.cnn.com/2020/03/23/health/us-pollution-satellite-coronavirus-scn-trnd/index.html
green-bri.org/if-sars-is-an-indicator-coronavirus-covid-19-will-have-little-effect-of-chinese-bri-investment-and-trade
medium.com/@green_stimulus_now/green-stimulus-in-the-press-17b69d5e3e0c
www.tomtom.com/en_gb/traffic-index/london-traffic/
www.independent.co.uk/environment/coronavirus-air-pollution-co2-reduce-update-spread-a9411011.html
thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/490318-trump-administration-rolls-back-obama-era-fuel-efficiency-standards
www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/10/coronavirus-could-cause-fall-in-global-co2-emissions
economictimes.indiatimes.com/industry/energy/oil-gas/indias-fuel-demand-drops-11-in-march-as-coronavirus-hits-aviation-transport/articleshow/74711994.cms
energyandcleanair.org/janata-curfew-pollution-levels/
www.eea.europa.eu/data-and-maps/indicators/greenhouse-gas-emission-trends-6/assessment-3
www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/household-air-pollution-and-health
www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/ambient-(outdoor)-air-quality-and-health
www.reuters.com/article/us-china-economy-pmi-factory-official/china-factory-activity-unexpectedly-expands-but-economy-unable-to-shake-off-virus-shock-idUSKBN21I05S
www.popsci.com/story/environment/covid-19-economy-crisis-stimulus-plan/?IEA%20newsletters&SendGrid&Email
www.fiveprinciples.org/
www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-26/green-focus-likely-for-european-union-s-virus-recovery-plan?IEA%20newsletters&SendGrid&Email
www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-coronavirus-has-temporarily-reduced-chinas-co2-emissions-by-a-quarter?.com&
www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/03/22/climate/coronavirus-usa-traffic.html?campaignId=7JFJX
www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/coronavirus-shutdown-air-gets-cleaner-and-carbon-emissions-drop-across-busiest-areas-of-uk/ar-BB11tx7w
www.icis.com/explore/resources/news/2020/03/27/10487371/european-power-and-carbon-markets-affected-by-covid-19-an-early-impact-assessment
www.linkedin.com/pulse/european-power-carbon-markets-affected-covid-19-early-ferdinand/?published=t&trackingId=fSJPQdTmRXSKtxMRY%2BlOZw%3D%3D
www.nationalgeographic.com/science/2020/04/coronavirus-causing-carbon-emissions-to-fall-but-not-for-long/?IEA%20newsletters&SendGrid&Email
#coronavirus #climatecrisis #carbonnegative

[@SianiAnne]

Since the same governments are still in charge, I suspect we'll aim to go right back to the previous ruinous 'normal'. I could wish otherwise. Systemic change is needed, although I don't know that we'll see it in any meaningful way.

[@pseudonayme7717]

I'm worried you might be right. If it's still profitable to destroy the environment, they will carry on doing it 😐

[@anarchisttechsupport6644]

Have ya checked out genstrike.org ?

[@robmcilroy1894]

Yeah ,the drug addict didn't go into rehab willingly. If I know anything about addicts,and I do, then as soon as the addict can, they go on a bender. Maybe the trick is to keep the addict in rehab?

[@tombombadil3185]

@@robmcilroy1894 interesting analogy!

[@ShurahanaYume]

The Great American Return to Normal is Coming. But we can't let this happen. medium.com/@juliovincent/prepare-for-the-ultimate-gaslighting-6a8ce3f0a0e0

[@aland5478]

Just a side note. Anyone understand that our insects have tanked big time. There are going by by very soon! So in turn so are we!

[@pseudonayme7717]

I'm aware you are correct about the recent enormous loss of insect life worldwide but if there's an apocalypse, my money's on ants, termites and spiders surviving beyond us😁

[@qui-gonjinn471]

Louise Bernard Positiviy is the best tool we have. Once we have lost it, we won’t be able to dig ourselves out of this hole.

[@richdiana3663]

The masses are saying "Just have a drink.""

[@christopherbetty5017]

I think I'm going to do that.

[@richardharvey1732]

And we must obey the masses?.

[@alaneasthope2357]

I've had a think, and I think governments will take the line of least resistance, which unfortunately is going back to business as normal as quickly and cheaply as possible. The phrase "brave new world", requires brave new politicians, and unfortunately they don't last long in the world of politics.

[@pgantioch8362]

“Cheaply”? The idea that burning fossil fuels is “cheap” is based on delusion, a shared hallucination, enforced by govt policy: that it’s “free” to emit as much CO2 into the atmosphere as we want. Well, it’s NOT free. Our children & grandchildren will have to spend hundreds of trillions, if not quadrillions, of dollars to address our profligacy. If you drive your kids or grandkids around in a gas-guzzling SUV, tell them to keep up their STEM studies. For every molecule of CO2 that pours out the tailpipe, they’re going to have to figure out how to suck a molecule of CO2 back down, out of the atmosphere, a difficult & expensive proposition. BTW, I realize that there are many other factors in assessing warming, including sulfate aerosols mentioned above, methane, land use, etc, ETC. But CO2 is the big cahuna.

[@digiryde]

@@pgantioch8362 In Capitalism, these things you speak of are called externalities and are not considered businesses' responsibilities.

[@pgantioch8362]

@@digiryde Currently, yes. In the past, large corporations acted like they had many stakeholders: employees, the public, etc, not just maximizing value for stockholders. Many are pushing for that again.

[@drawyrral]

The loss of particles in the air will cause a near immediate increase in heat. Carbon will keep on warming for the next century.

[@pgantioch8362]

Most emitted CO2 stays in the atmosphere for millennia, not centuries. Warming will continue if we don’t actively address it.

[@christopherellis2663]

Discredited hypothesis, check it out 🖤

[@tombombadil3185]

CO2 released at low altitude is recycled by plants and algae. CO2 released at high altitudes take up to a century to cycle out. Hence, air traffic is the largest contributor of AGW with the US military leading in that regard. That is also why methane (lighter than air) is a bigger problem. It floats up to altitude where it combines with ozone to form CO2 and water vapor, the two largest green house gases.

[@pgantioch8362]

@KelliAnn Winkler I know the properties of CO2. It’s a greenhouse gas.

[@Wookey.]

@@pgantioch8362 "Most emitted CO2 stays in the atmosphere for millennia, not centuries". I'm not sure this is a meaningful quibble. CO2 levels in the atmosphere have a decay curve so it's kind of meaningless to argue whether any given quantum stays for centuries or millennia (both/either could be regarded as true, but there would be a lot less after 2000 years than there was after 200 years, assuming that we had stopped adding to the levels, and the mechanisms for atmospheric exchange were still operating). We can agree that emissions now affect future concentrations for a very long time :-)

[@realeyesrealizereallies6828]

I think that none of these suggested policies will occur, our problems are systemic, meaning we need system change, the political system being first and foremost, if we plan on changing energy systems...Political systems are corporate captured and corrupt..They don't represent populations, they represent entrenched power and profit....Everyone knew we were at risk for a pandemic, but zero preparations were employed, because it wasn't profitable.... As long as profits are our priority, as long as our political systems are captured, we will only see minimal,token changes. As long as populations are divided, they will remain conquered. Not a very positive outlook, but I would argue, it's realistic..Time will tell...

[@thebionicwoman1762]

real eyes realize real lies Yes! United we all win! Covid19 has paused the systems & we, the people, must not stand by idle & see a return to the 'normality' of destroying our planet. #NoDairyBailOut #TheTimeIsNow ##TheFutureIsVegan ❤️🌱✌🏽🔥🙏

[@CraisonBailum]

So systemic systems of systematism are to blame. Again, who told you a Bachelor of Arts in Fat Studies and Gender Fat Disphobia is a legit business ? khaaaa #eatshit pls :D !

[@peterbelanger4094]

I'm very sorry but your naive communist utopia will never happen.Self interest and seeking "profit" is inherent in all life. It is called the survival instinct, self preservation. So, no matter how much you try to impose a communist utopia, human beings WILL seek advantage over others. If it's not raw money, it will be power, for power over others is the REAL danger, "money" and "profit" are just mechanisms to achieve that. Communist and Socialist systems are just as vulnerable to abuse of power, perhaps MORE. For when power becomes centralized, it becomes even more attractive to those who would abuse it. It is a dynamic of nature, it can not be avoided, like the wind. This pandemic will not unite humanity, these things usually do not. Throughout history pandemics have been followed by extended periods of political upheaval. I do not see this century as being any different. It's best you folks keep your communism to yourselves and within your circles, because there WILL be EXTREME resistance. Sorry, no utopia this time. This little thing called "reality" is in the way. Good luck with your "green revolution" lefties, LOL!

[@tedrees5989]

@@peterbelanger4094 You destroy your whole argument with your communism blaming. Climate Change has nothing to do with communism. Putin pushes fossil fuels just as much as the US does. The problem we have is that a small % of the population are criminal and think that life is all about exploitation, or being exploited. It is a flaw of some people, but not all people.

[@kevincrady2831]

Remember folks, any time government attempts to benefit anyone who doesn't own a yacht, it's COMMUNISM! COMMIE COMMIE COMMIE COMMIE COMMIE COMMIE! Keep on fighting that Cold War! And if we win, then we can go give the Kaiser the ass-kicking he deserves!

[@MrEddiekessler]

Lovely as the thought of green recovery is, Greed of the giants in industry will not aid the prosses of a greener future.

[@gaenorharris-obrien9934]

Fossil Fuel Industries will just take hold of the green new Industries and have even greater profits because sustainable energy doesn't cost anything up front

[@anarchisttechsupport6644]

Are we ready for something like genstrike.org ? Stay at home orders make it easier.

[@andrewcheadle948]

@@gaenorharris-obrien9934 how do you figure sustainable energy has no upfront cost?

[@gaenorharris-obrien9934]

@@andrewcheadle948I was afraid of that question...I cant think it thro' bc I'm not a scientist...I mean the sun is just shining on us...has to be easier to turn into heat; electricity; what else

[@gaenorharris-obrien9934]

@@erdelegy then just do it but with military precision if nuclear.

[@h2opower]

I will take this time to start working on the circuit to get the "Water for fuel" technology up and running correctly but my main computer and printer are stuck in the shop for repairs until this Covid-19 crises is over. So far I have been working on planting trees and working on the garden as I don't think food will be plentiful in the near future.

[@m.j.golden4522]

🅰️n act of violence against nature should be judged as severely as that against society or another person. - Dr. Michael W.Fox

[@davethefab6339]

The old ways will have to end one day to make way for the new... let’s just get on with it now and save the pain later.

[@stevenschulte1475]

We will go straight back to what we were doing before and more to catch up. Oh dear.

[@CaedenV]

I think that this whole situation has taught big business a few important things: 1) People cannot work during an emergency situation, and the call for automation is going to have a lot more pull. In the short term people will go back to work, but in the long term the businesses that can afford to replace people with machine will. The technology is already there, it is just expensive and improving quickly, so businesses are waiting for a time when the price starts to dip, and they are not going to kick themselves for not waiting for next years model. But if it is a matter of keeping production up and the doors open with social distancing, vs having to close up shop during a crisis situation... well, manufacturing is not going to look the same. But it is not just manufacturing; Lawyers, tax preparers, and other people who make a living doing analysis are also going to have a lot of pressures with AI. In the short term it will be business as usual, but in the long term it will be a jobless recovery as production is further decoupled from employment, which will have some very good and very bad results... but will make the next big crisis a lot easier to get through. 2) Telecommuting has been a huge success at my work. We had the foresight and ability to virtualize our compute enviornment a few years ago (all credit to my boss on this, not me) so that our people can work from client locations, or while traveling with relative ease. Truth be told, only a fraction of our employees ever used it before this crisis, but now everyone has used it, and we started getting out people accustomed to video calls. Quite frankly, there is a chunk of our workforce who will never come back into the office on a regular basis as their home office is much more comfortable than the work office, and many of the rest of us will now be allowed to work from home a few days a week instead of having to go in every day as we proved that we can still keep production up while working from home. Other places had far less success on this, and we are already working with other local businesses to get them set up similarly so that when the next crisis hits they can keep working through a crisis instead of having to shut down and lay people off. But this becomes a question of provisioning in the future, similar to phone and internet companies. If everyone downloads something large at the same time, internet companies don't have the capacity for everyone to run at full speed. If everyone calls out at the same time, cellular carriers cant get all phones online at the same time, and most of the time this is not a problem. Businesses will soon have the opportunity to run the same way; A business with 150 employees may only have 75 perminant offices, and another 30 'open' offices for when telecommuting staff needs to come in. More people will be able to work in a smaller footprint, allowing more efficient use of building space, heating, cooling etc. 3) Related to that could be an impact on traffic. Having better efficiency standards is great, but having people not drive is way better. Having open roads that flow instead to turning into parking lots will help pollution a ton, and having fewer miles driven on average will be great. Having one large polluting box truck going door to door delivering food and packages is far more efficient and clean than having everyone in their SUVs driving around town to pick things up.

[@kaitlyn__L]

I wish we would use the time of getting back into business to properly invest in renewables, stop building new gas power stations, decarbonise steel and concrete, and so forth - but I'm not hopeful that the political will, will materialise. After all, China has pumped up their industrial burning, with sulphur from coal power building up in the atmosphere above their cities again now. As you say, solar and wind is cheaper than ever, and I would add storage also is, with compressed air and other such cheap longer-term forms already beginning installations before the pandemic began. It would be really nice if stimulus focused on these areas, but I unfortunately expect petrochem and aviation to get most of the government attention, alongside banks and multinationals. It would be great if many new jobs were created in manufacturing and installing heat pumps, insulation, and electric water boilers, new renewable farms, large storage facilities in the place of decommissioned power stations, home solar, and so on and so forth.... but looking at who is in power in the most influential countries, I have my doubts. Far too many have personal political ties to oil or gas, their refinement, pipelines, etc. The lockdown is the first time I've genuinely felt the government wants what's best for the entire country in over a decade - so I fully expect for them to return to business as usual as soon as they possibly can. Addendum now I've finished the video: I like those states principles for coronavirus stimulus, especially the money going to people and local communities, instead of corporations. I like the point about measures like these potentially being our permanent reality if the planet continues to heat up. If the air got polluted enough, or if it was too hot and dry outside for safety, or so on; it would be conceivable that people would avoid going out as much as possible and treat every time as potentially deadly, just as we are with the virus now. As we head into the future, reminding people of the lockdown is going to be potent messaging I believe. It's easy to say the planet might become inhospitable in 50-100 years, but that's difficult to fully imagine for a lot of people. They accept the words but don't think what the consequences would be for their daily life or the world. But now we have collectively experienced this lockdown, and the wide-reaching ramifications, we have a better collective understanding of how unpleasant drastic-but-necessary measures can be. And there's renewed political support for institutions like the NHS, so here's hoping that can also be leveraged in the future to protect the NHS and to try and get public healthcare sorted in the USA.

[@christinamacpherson81]

Terrific rundown on how to approach a positive, climate friendly way in recovery from coronaviris

[@dinezthompson9832]

I'm having a think. But my first impression is "Of course!"

[@grindupBaker]

Oi'll give it a tink.

[@achenarmyst2156]

I like your optimism and positive spirits. There is much reason to paint a gloomy picture of our future. But for what purpose? It‘s better to go for the small chance with all our power available than to indulge in self loathing. Just put some trust into the resilience of life on earth. 🍀🙂

[@dwalley1234]

Such a well researched interpretation of present conditions and that I think you should be congratulated on another great video. I don't understand how you would have time in your life to produce such a well thought out thesis. I think it is inevitable that Governments will return to business as usual once the present crisis is over.Governments no longer seem to represent the ordinary individual but seem to be there to help big business make even more money. Just look at the amount of subsidies OF OUR MONEY that is given to the petrochemical industry. We need to have a peaceful revolution to bring these governments to heal. I hope that Greta Thunburg does not fade into insecurity as a result of this present crisis.

[@LEDewey_MD]

Very thoughtful content (as usual!). When you summarized the more green and just approach to pandemic recovery in the U.S., I couldn't make out the name or organization that created the 5 listed principles that you reported. Could you please repeat or write their name (s)? Thanks! 👍

[@dystopiaeatsmoney]

It’s happening again, it’s happening again, Easter Island, it’s happening again.......

[@frederik7338]

great content, as always

[@grindupBaker]

The glasses are new. You forgot to mention the glasses. Excellent glasses. Mine are bottle tops.

[@firasmiro4240]

Hello, would you please make an updated this video, thank you very much

[@samanthabailey02]

Thank you

[@avejst]

Good input Thanks for sharing👍😀

[@edcranium500]

I've been aware of the discussion on social media - based around the question; "Do we have to go back to business as usual?" Dr Victoria Hurth at Cambridge University is working on a paradigm for sustainability in business. In a chat with her, we did find common ground in a possible universal answer of "Eudaimonic well-being", but it's too sketchy an idea at the moment. I would like the idea to be explored though because I have a gut feeling that some of what we seek may be hidden there. It's a possible starting point - not a Utopia.

[@earthgirl8917]

I'd sincerely love to believe what you and someone else believes or hopes, however, I prefer the data. The coronavirus lockdown won't cool the planet because of: 1. We've already pumped up enough CO2 in the atmosphere to have a continuous increase in the global temperature for at least a century. The recent NASA studies and the recent measurements at Mauna Loa, Hawaii in March have just reflected that reality. 2. As we lose the aerosol masking effect, the global temperatures will have an additional increase of from 0.5 C to 1.0 C due to the global brightening (according to the studies on global dimming in 2019). The reduction of air pollution is good news for humans, though. At the same time, the deaths from COVID 19 would probably compensate for the yearly deaths from air pollution worldwide by the end of the pandemic.

[@grindupBaker]

It's actually an additional increase of from 0.75 C to 1.43 C due to the global brightening but that's over 2,000 years so you're essentially very accurate because it's 0.45 C to 0.86 C over 100 years with a CMIP computer model ocean or (if you prefer James Hansen) it's 0.56 C to 1.07 C over 100 years with a Jim Hansen ocean that mixes less than models (at 9:55 at kzbin.info/www/bejne/gIGQlIWneLaFmZo ). The important aspect for humans & other Life more pressing though is that it's 0.32 C to 0.60 C over the 1st ~4.0 years after "we lose the aerosol masking effect" (your phrasing for cleaning back to 1750 AD purity) with a CMIP computer model ocean or (if you prefer James Hansen) it's 0.41 C to 0.77 C over the 1st ~4.0 years with a Jim Hansen ocean that mixes less than models. So its those 1st ~4.0 years in which 42% (models) or 54% (Jim Hansen) of the entire final warming would happen in which there would be a very sharp rise in surface/air temperature additional to the present +0.20 degrees / decade. In all cases the " C to C" preceding is with the IPCC AR5 or with that February 2019 paper for cloud effects that almost doubles it, as you see in the preceding numbers.

[@peterbelanger4094]

"The coronavirus lockdown won't cool the planet because of: " 1. Most people really don't care that much about the green agendas, they care more about surviving day to day, no matter the environmental impact. 2. We are really getting sick and f-ing tired of you climate alarmists telling everyone they need to change their lives. piss-off greenies!!!!!

[@cryptinflame4308]

You climate hipsters are so self important. All you care about is YOUR HABITAT. You don’t care about anything else, as long as you are comfy in your little green home.

[@starrmayhem]

@@cryptinflame4308 you are also in this habitat, how could you say they don't care about you

[@cryptinflame4308]

Star Mayhem Because this planet is a self correcting system, that is what nature does. It adapts as we do, i love this planet and it provides for me. That being said, people who are BILLIONAIRES AND MILLIONAIRES can give up a fraction of their fucking money and this climate, environmental situation would be over and done with. But no, I’m the one who has to fucking hear about it. I’m 20 years old and have to worry about my own priorities and my life, so yeah excuse me when I say that it’s not my fucking problem to deal with.

[@ashoakwillow]

We read about Ancient Greece, and we look at Greece today, likewise with Rome, Persia, Egypt and every other influential civilisation. Under Trump, it really is beginning to look like the end of the American Century, and on the plus side, he has demonstrated what happens when you sell your democracy to Big Oil

[@michaelspencer6865]

Or to China.

[@jthadcast]

once again a thoroughly researched vid and complex picture of all the variables.

[@JustHaveaThink]

Thanks jthadcast. Much appreciated.

[@peterbelanger4094]

Too bad all the research and attempts to "convince" us who oppose will never work. As a matter of fact, the more you people push, the more your opposition will push back. All 'Just Have a Think" is doing is preaching to the choir. Discussion on the topic is over. The factions are too deeply entrenched. It will eventually have to come to "physical persuasion", and I don't think you greenies have the balls to go up against us. See, we don't care if we hurt the environment in our battles, how are you folks going to fight a war and remain "environmentally friendly"? You commies will LOSE the coming climate war.

[@Pohleece222]

One can only hope.

[@digiryde]

Of all ironies, pollution, especially airborne pollution tends to make people vulnerable to respiratory diseases. Healthier people are more resistant to all sorts of diseases, including coronaviruses. That a pandemic could cause one of the sources of weakened immune systems to be lessened, even for a bit, is contrary to what all viruses benefit from to infect hosts.

[@n1mbusmusic606]

Thorcon and space mirrors our only hope!

[@tonyduncan9852]

Hydrogen is a mistake. Producing it is very energy-inefficient, and it cannot be produced from oil without increasing atmospheric CO2. If hydroelectric energy were to be used to produce it, then that energy might as well be used to capture carbon from the atmosphere in the first place. The hydrocarbon fuel produced this way is renewable, and the technology for it is in use already. Hydrogen is a very small molecule which passes through many solids, and its flammability is very high, requiring very little energy to initiate it. Also, its flame is INVISIBLE. This surprises even the technicians who are aware of this. It kills. Musk has something to say about this. kzbin.info/www/bejne/r3ezn4djeah1jNU

[@billfarnsworth7536]

Hydrogen is not a mistake. New, low energy input catalytic processes are being developed to make H2 fuel, directly from methane (a potent greenhouse gas) while capturing all of the carbon byproduct in the form of inert graphite (with no CO2 released into the atmosphere) kzbin.info/www/bejne/iaa2mmh-etyne68 Musk's EV batteries require graphite to manufacture and yes hydrogen is flammable, but no more than most commonly used hydrocarbon fuels Oh and the development of safe and efficient storage of hydrogen is progressing rapidly too.

[@billfarnsworth7536]

@@erdelegy Yes it is and by a factor of about twenty thousand. That's the half life (in years) of the deadly nuclear waste produced by nuclear fission power generation.

[@psandbergnz]

The speaker omits the "aerosol masking effect" that is also reduced by less pollution (the aerosol is caused primarily by chemicals such as SO2 and other pollutants, as well as some natural emisions). The aerosol in the atmosphere REFLECTS BACK back solar energy into space, thus REDUCING the greenhouse effect of CO2. Since the aerosol declines far faster than the greenhouse gases, this means that the abrupt reduction in CO2 emission from reduced industrial activity (greenhouse effect) is MORE THAN COUNTER-BALANCED by the simultaneous reduced aerosol. Therefore global warming will be WORSE as this year progresses than in preceding years. At the moment we are not noticing it much because the northern hemisphere is still in spring, but come the late Summer, we will see a crop disaster unfolding.

[@anarchisttechsupport6644]

Yes, lets kill that ozone layer to keep the planet cooler. Very nice.

[@sodalitia]

He doesn't omit anything. There is separate video about aerosols. You can't cram everything into one video.

[@psandbergnz]

@@sodalitia , the title is: "Can Coronavirus cool our climate?". To answer that question, the greenhouse gas effect AND the aerosol effect should be discussed. Research finds that the reduced aerosol from pollution will take effect sooner than the reduced CO2 emissions, which hang in the air for longer.

[@psandbergnz]

@@anarchisttechsupport6644 , the ozone layer is not the aerosol in the atmosphere.

[@JustHaveaThink]

We looked at this a couple of weeks ago Paul. kzbin.info/www/bejne/m57RYpt4iK2InLM We may have been on track for a crop disaster this year anyway in fact - it's certainly coming in the next few years as a direct result of global warming. Kazakstan has already stopped exporting wheat while the pandemic is ongoing. Arctic Sea Ice is also down quite noticeably since March, which is something I am keeping my eye one. All the best. Dave

[@xenocampanoli815]

I cannot help but think that, especially in these here United States where I am planted, our consumption and desired mobility and lack of physical condition traps us into many of various consumption patterns that will not really allow us out of these pollutions. I ride my bicycle from Aloha, Oregon to near the Hillsboro Airport, when I can go to work, instead of driving or even taking the MAX train (okay, most of the time), but every day I ride around the vast majority of folks still dragging around their multi-thousand-ton exoskeletons to carry their otherwise inert bodies to such destinations. Given I go around 8 miles each way, and that is less than average, and my example to that of most is probably something like one to 25,000 commuters, changes away from this high energy requirement will likely be some kind of step change that will only occur permanently after some resource change that is significantly greater than the Covid-19 pandemic now apparently is, at least here in the Pacific-Northwest. Certainly this is a fundamental mechanism in our intransigence and even our functional inability to learn to our satisfaction that Climate Change is an actual thing of import. Furthermore, given we are the highest country in mental health problems, it is pretty clear to me that external attempts to force these changes and knowledge, whether from people or microbes, tends to just meet with equal push-back until the point of the individual's breaking down.

[@davidleahy6141]

Is it not true that the fracking extraction methods require more energy to extract the oil than the energy the oil itself can produce??

[@lestermarshall6501]

No profit in doing that, so I doubt it but don't know for sure.

[@robmcilroy1894]

There is a net gain, three forward ,two back kind of thing. What it is though is more expensive to get out of the ground. They use borrowed money and are continuously increasing borrowing to stay solvent. I'm hopeful with the liquidity crisis we're heading into it might dry up the fracking industry ,and oil sands industries access to credit. The implications of this may not be good humanity but great for everything else . Futures so bright😎

[@davidleahy6141]

@@robmcilroy1894 Thanks for your reply. Hopefully the world requires less fossil fuels as more alternate energy sources come on line.

[@JP-zp5ic]

I believe that many jurisdictions will use the opportunity this crisis presents to advance to a greener and more sustainable future. Many other will not, but that doesn't change the fact that we are now seeing a seismic shift in political will, with every year, and every new disaster or crisis, strengthening the collective desire of people to transition to a sustainable and just economic model.

[@psikeyhackr6914]

No! It can only slow down the heating.

[@tonyfriden8278]

Is there anyone other than me who sees how the maps of air pollution and where Corona has been the worst match. Creepy.

[@davidpriddis]

Would be great to see a follow up video on this topic of a green recovery and the impact of C19 over several months of reduced emissions now.

[@toadhoward3954]

You look like my very cool English teacher

[@likklej8]

Less contrails I agree

[@grindupBaker]

Fewer contrails (digital). Less water vapour (analog)

[@steveh1844]

What would put less cars, food production, space for housing and emissions per year? People having less children. Simple. If you cut emissions per person by 50% but double population back to start & worse as more space is needed.

[@dinabrown6529]

I think the coronavirus may take care of that problem. I dont see an end to this, i think the min we stick our heads out of isolation, we are going to get hit again. I dont see a vaccine either, they never developed a vaccine for sars, mers, and if you think about it coronaviruses are a form of cold viruses. What was it we were always told, no cure for the cold. This is a highly lethal cold that dont allow for immunity. Remember no matter how many times you get a cold you are never immune. You can get a cold every other week and never be immune. Even flu has vaccines, they have never made a vaccine for a cold.

[@grindupBaker]

"less children" S.B. "fewer children" unless the plan is to genetically engineer to produce smaller children so they'll take less space.

[@ecocentrichomestead6783]

Most humans will attempt to return to the comfort of "normal". I hope many of them will realize that the old ways are not necessary.

[@ecocentrichomestead6783]

I tried being normal once... didn't like it.

[@richardvitty1745]

We don't need to return to normal... normal wasn't working.

[@ecocentrichomestead6783]

@@richardvitty1745 our normal wasn't working from the beginning. There was enough resources to appease the people while the capitalists kept bleeding them. Now, resources are running low.

[@devilmanscott]

@@ecocentrichomestead6783 You need to stop talking about this anti-capitalist shit, you're the reason people distrust the green movement, trying to use it as a way to push your ideology, people in general like freer economic systems which includes owning your own property be it a house or business and cheaper goods.

[@oystla]

And a question I have now is If the world these days with less pollutant in the atmosphere is cooling or warming?

[@grindupBaker]

The expectation is less pollutant in the atmosphere is S.B. warming. It's like very roughly: Sulphate aerosols: cooling so removal warms Organic carbon: cooling so removal warms Black carbon: warming so removal cools As a relevant aside there's a clown called Guy McPherson who read 1 sentence on the 1st page summary of a scientific paper stated from that "1 degree temperature rise with 35% pollution reduction" so then "everybody will die" but he didn't even bother to read the paper (I did) before telling audiences "everybody will die" and the paper has 35% reduction in Organic Carbon (OC) emissions only, and 50% reduction in Black Carbon (BC) emissions only (this presently WARMS, not COOLS), and 80% reduction in sulphates (SO2) emissions only (this is presently the big COOLER). So the 35% reduction that the lazy McPherson babbles about is only for Organic Carbon (OC) and the main global dimmer is sulphates (SO2) and it's ~1.0 degrees for 80% reduction not 35% reduction. As if that wasn't bad enough the paper has it taking 80 years and McPherson says "in days or weeks". What a worthless clown he is eh ?

[@jimmyrichardson67]

We’re loving, it more time for each other spending more time in our garden doing little projects without the pressure. Definitely more self imposed discipline needed we don’t need hardly any of the things we think we need

[@swiftlytiltingplanet8481]

You're right. In the U.S., we are consumed with consumption. Learn to do without and you'll be astonished how little you need to be happy.

[@swiftlytiltingplanet8481]

@Rebecca Conn I can't help but chuckle. I'm unable to grow avocados in my area, so that is one of the things I indulge in and purchase. All other produce except bananas, I grow myself. I'm well into my sixties but ride my bike everywhere, including to the grocery store. I'm not poor, by any means, but it feels good to be frugal and find ways to re-purpose items you otherwise would have thrown out.

[@swiftlytiltingplanet8481]

@Rebecca Conn Awesome, Rebecca. You're living the dream. :)

[@richardharvey1732]

Much as I resent being confined to quarters by that bunch of clowns I have been spending a lot of time doing nothing much, an art I have been working on for years, ever since I realised that the drive to keep on doing things was entirely self-imposed and none of us actually have to do anything.

[@richardharvey1732]

@Rebecca Conn Sorry Rebecca you have slightly misunderstood me, when I said I don't have to do anything I was referring to the imperative, I do a lot of things, well not at the moment I am not allowed to go out and do my volunteering in nature reserves for some obscure reason, and am sitting here doing this to try to take my mind off my rage and frustration, emotions that I am quite familiar with and try to deal with peacefully. The significant concept to which I refer ie the concept that I was nearly buried under that we must have a job we must do this we must do that, none of them are true, as with you we can and I think should observe our environment quietly try to pick a few things that matter to us, for me they keep shifting so I have to keep on seeing and hearing and thinking and trying to actually do as little as possible. I do have some concern that I am too much of a drain on the people around me but they keep telling me its ok , in fact most of them seem quite fond of me, probably only because the ones that don't like me stay well clear!. Cheers, Richard.

[@WINDGENEERING]

what a nut bar.,,, BUT,, Come to think of it, Yes I did notice a big relief in my lungs when the condom factory down the street closed along with that Vegan restaurant. Maybe closing DOWN free health care will keep less cars on the road too?

[@mandycharva563]

We love youuuu

[@grindupBaker]

"Mike's Motors" @grindupBaker "Southern California. Check other locations they seem to be off as well". ------------------ ​ Mike's Motors Thanks Mike. If I get around to it I'll try to keep a more-frequent eye on the Climate Reanalyzer. What's been happening since ~May 1st in the northern hemisphere, where you live, is that the Jet Stream has been on quite an interesting series of wonks. So the hemisphere isn't getting much warmer (or cooler) but the air is being shoved around making some big areas warmer than usual and some other big areas cooler than usual. Globally May 2020 was 0.02 degrees warmer than the overall global warming trend of the last 50 years. So you draw a trend line through the last 50 years and May 2020 should be the next point on that line but actually it was 0.02 degrees above that line. There was an extra 0.02 degrees from somewhere.

[@brianwheeldon4643]

Thank you Dave, A great synopsis of what we're all thinking at the minute... and for the last year or two at least (apart from the recent addition of sars2covo). It's gotta be system change I think. Can't see any other way out of this. This isn't the 1930s when even the rich got it in the neck. The political system has to change along with the economic financialisation of the earth. Amsterdam and Kate Raworth are starting with Amsterdam on the financialisation aspect, I'll be following their progress with interest, and wishing them well as I wish you. The twitter co-founder billionaire's donation to fighting the virus at least approaches the right magnitude and is positive.

[@JustHaveaThink]

Thanks Brian. Much appreciated. All power to your efforts sir!

[@solarbuduk]

I suspect that the coronavirus crisis will be a lot more protracted than people are expecting, which will make a return to BAU impossible. Economies will have to reshape themselves to survive under lockdown conditions. Market forces always respond in response to constraints and a new economy will emerge which will be much more relocalised and resilient. A lot of jobs in the old economy will be lost but if governments recognise the shape of things to come then they will recalibrate their economic policies to favour localism and self-reliance, with something approximating to a universal basic income which enables local communities to organise in a way which will probably resemble the way things have worked much more traditionally, ie proper communities with distinct trades, all serving niche purposes within localities. This way of organising things is by its nature far more efficient and far less reliant on cheap fossil fuels than the globalised economy model.

[@sandponics]

Ah! back to the village life, with roses growing around each cottage door.

[@solarbuduk]

David Lockett absolutely - it will be just like the good old days. How we’ve missed the plague!

[@christopherbetty5017]

It will definitely clean the air we breed as there less cars on the road and many businesses close.

[@pkpineapplemaster3864]

Can I just remind you all. The co2 reduction is the result of millions of people life's suffering right now.

[@grindupBaker]

Yep you can

[@Alexander-zs5rj]

As long as the Rainforest cut down.., if the Rainforest build up than would be higher effect and air flows would be bringing rain water back ( in California, and if at Africa there the Rainforest and Forest around it build up would be Raining at Sahara again. Cause after big cut downs there was no raining anymore ..! ) Thinks about it Politicians if see

[@nigeljohnson9820]

The covid-19 crisis is showing what the world could be like without oil pollution. Like a creeping plague, the use of oil has increased slowly over generations. Suddenly people are being shown a glimmer of what a clean world looks like, with nature rapidly recovering. Lessons will have been learned from the pandemic experience, the inherent dangers of globalisation have become glaringly apparent, with our dependence on long global supply chains and import for regions that have specialised in particularly product manufacture. Certainly globalisation weakens the resilience of society to deal with a crisis. Many have also found that working from home is viable and the new use of technology has shown that not all travel is necessary , so maybe the world has changed. One change I really hope is permanent is the closure of those horrible cruel Chinese wet markets, with their exploitation of wild animals, and the killing for food of what we in the west would consider as pets. I hope the Covid-19 virus has shown the danger of the bush meat trade and it will now be outlawed through out the world.

[@sawdat9376]

I would be curious to hear your thoughts concerning food scarcity and how the COVID-19 pandemic is going to affect the global system of feeding 7 1/2 billion people.

[@robmcilroy1894]

@KelliAnn Winkler troll away troll.

[@JustHaveaThink]

We'll have to see how things pan out Travis, but I cannot imagine anything good will come of it. Kazakstan has stopped exporting wheat already, and US farmers were hit hard by last years floods and freezes. More of the same to come I'm afraid. This Summer might be unusually warm as a result of a slight additional spike in global temperatures as reflective aerosols have rapidly dropped out of the atmosphere all over the world.

[@mr1enrollment]

JHT: Wow, much to consider in this video, thank you. While I suspect that not much will change going forward, it IS uncharted territory and an impulse disturbance in any system can bring about unforeseen changes. The effects of the pandemic will no doubt have various degrees of impact on different sectors of the worlds economy. This may may good for some and bad for others, we can have some hope while being a bit skeptical. Here in the USA it will be very interesting. We have the opportunity to dump the rump so to speak, and my bet is that the scales will fall from the eyes of a portion of the population. The focus of politics will certainly change with this ongoing circumstance. I know how I will be voting and it will not be for the incumbent. {Is that enough for you professional trolls to get a good bite on?}

[@kimweaver3323]

Or the disappearance of the "aerosol parasol" at altitude will allow rapid heating of the lower troposphere over a mere few years.

[@grindupBaker]

It's assessed as 42% to 54% of the equilibrium warming over 3.5 to 4.5 years Kim for any warming except the El Nino (instant is that one) so yes, those quantities & times. I'm trying to get a workable approximation of day/night ups/downs as it progresses but I don't think I'll find the basic analyses I need for that. I might though.

[@DJgetarealjob]

no on the glasses

[@Chobaca]

My thoughts are that you're awesome

[@grindupBaker]

Well it's the glasses. He's gone from like Georgie Porgie Pudding'n'Pie to George Clooney.

[@Chobaca]

@@grindupBaker did you know George C used to own a commuter cars Tango by the way kzbin.info/www/bejne/qZ2rgmODa5uBjJI

[@Chobaca]

@@grindupBaker kzbin.info/www/bejne/onjcdKengal0qs0

[@realvanman1]

I would guess that there will actually be an overall increase in population, despite the extra deaths, due to so many people spending so much more time at home, with nothing to do. This will ultimately far and away outstrip the reductions in CO2 seen during the pandemic and recession.

[@davidelliott5843]

We then have people like Ian Scott and Kirk Sorensen who are trying to bring safe low cost ultra low waste nuclear power to the market. Scott has removed all of the factors that make current nuclear so costly. But he’s either ignored or stymied by inappropriate regulations. Thankfully the Canadians are moving forwards with the waste burner reactor. It will dispose of high level nuclear waste to make zero CO2 electricity at cost less than natural gas generation. Less toxic waste. Zero CO2 power at low cost. Win Win Win.

[@martingorbush2944]

@1:30. I'm 100% sure that it will be the second option.

[@martingorbush2944]

@1:20

[@davidleahy6141]

Also I have been told that the particulate air pollution is, perversely, helping in inhibiting greater temperature rising by its albedo effect. Is this true?

[@joshuaknight1748]

David Leahy there’s a JHAT show on this exact topic. The effect of man made aerosols. I think they are significant, but outweighed iirc

[@ecocentrichomestead6783]

If particulate air pollution is keeping out the sun, it is also keeping in heat. That being said, it's removal would increase insulation and heat loss. What would that ratio be. It's removal would not cause a sudden spike in temperature, as guy McPherson seems to suggest. It would, at most, cause an increase in the RATE of warming.

[@linstantintello]

kzbin.info/www/bejne/m57RYpt4iK2InLM he made a video about it

[@davidleahy6141]

@@linstantintello Thanks. I rewatched that video. I had seen it before. Shows my retention levels of its content.

[@JustHaveaThink]

We looked at that very recently in this JHAT video David... kzbin.info/www/bejne/m57RYpt4iK2InLM

[@georgebalabanis8958]

Is the first time I have heard people with differences of opinion agree? Concluding comment about politicians

[@69dodgecharger440]

Well sorry I’m driving and work on cars to survive!

[@grindupBaker]

OK Dokey. That's AOK. Change is gradual. Unless you're 3 years old. If you're 3 years old change jobs immediately. Become a brain surgeon or virus mask inventor.

[@69dodgecharger440]

A Fack off eco idiots

[@69dodgecharger440]

My Grandfather died for the freedoms we enjoy! 🇬🇧 not going to listen to you or anybody’s crap on the environment especially when it is flawed! Tax away take all jobs away and you’ve woken a Sleeping GIANT 🇨🇦 I don’t listen to you lliberal leftist Satan loving bastards for anything! Drive to survive!

[@HuiChyr]

California Wildfire just f*cked up the CO2 reduction.

[@mathiaspinto4197]

Thank you to share some long term prospectives truly more intelligent than politician reactions ... and their (too often) biased / interested and short sight "public pottage declarations" ;)

[@robroysyd]

What has been in highest demand in the battle against SARS-CoV-2? Personal Protective Equipment (PPE). What is the basic feed stock for the materials PPE is made from? Crude Oil. Yes SOx and NOx atmospheric pollutants are bad for human health although SOx can contribute to global dimming. Regardless these gases are easily prevented from entering the atmosphere as they're water soluble. If coal must be burned then instead of arguing we should just accept the consequences of not burning it, a more refined approach would be to insist it is burned as efficiently and cleanly as possible.

[@grindupBaker]

Excellent point. Is it necessary to burn the Crude Oil in order to convert it into Personal Protective Equipment (PPE) ? I'm unfamiliar with the petrochemical process and so I'm wondering whether it burns the Crude Oil into ash + CO2 then glues the ash into PPE with an epoxy glue possibly also made from the residue after oxidizing carbon C+O2---->CO2 Is that how it's manufactured ?

[@robroysyd]

@@grindupBaker No need to burn the crude. Crude oil contains a mixture of hydrocarbons. Each has a different boiling point so fractional distillation is used to separate them. Another process used is catalytic cracking which breaks the long chain molecules into shorter (lighter) hydrocarbons . These long chains can be turned into various plastics by joining them end to end into longer chains and also cross linking the long chains. I've probably got the real chemists cringing by now but the range of plastics is vast and the chemical processes used to make them varied and complex enough for one to make a career out of them.

[@mweskamppp]

Unfortunately all those CO2 wont just disappear from the air. But the global dimming is less und maybe the coming summer will be a bit warmer as expected. Then you also will have less soot on the glaciers what results in less melting. Many changes for this summer. I look forward to all the changes. It will give lots of new data.

[@davidpounder1967]

If 418 ppm CO2 is so bad, how is it that market gardeners use 1500 to 2000 ppm to optimise plant growth? Surely more plant growth equals a healthier global population? ( as is evident from statistics from the last 40 years) The real enemy is pollution - not CO2. Just having a think....

[@grindupBaker]

You are an ignorant fuckwit. The science that answers your pathetically-stupid questions is everywhere in the form of thousand of hours of informational talks and tens or hundreds of thousand of pages of documents. There's no educating a fuckwit like you because you just have no interest at all in the topic and we all know it, and you know that we all know it, and we all know that you know that we all know it. A fucking totally-worthless human unit is what you are.

[@metaworldpeacetoday]

Sounds great... but we’re only fueling the underlying problem, the real problem **Overpopulation**

[@gaenorharris-obrien9934]

So do you have a " Solution" to overpopulation?

[@jimmyquigley5777]

People who think there are too many people always mean other people, not themselves.

[@sandponics]

@@erdelegy Dreaming is OK, but delusion is something else.

[@nsfeliz7825]

buy more condoms common sense

[@michaelspencer6865]

Boulder dash.

[@grindupBaker]

"Boulder dash". I'll go for that in these times of forced confinement & boredom. Do they roll the boulders down a hill or are there boulders that'll just dash all by themselves (like super-achiever boulders) ? Where do I go to see the boulder dash when I manage to sneak out without being caught by the health police ?

[@Kiyarose3999]

‘’’A growing body of concern’’ good grief, if it isn’t TOTALLY obvious, that we can’t go back to business as usual, by now, they must live on another planet. ‘’Concern’’, that level of mediocrity at a time when the Biosphere is falling apart, is insane! . ‘’If not you, who?, if not now, when?’’ ✊🏽🌎

[@MrArtist7777]

Now would be a good time to switch all of the road signs in the U.K., India, Japan and Australia, to the right side of the road. :)

[@husnainanwaar1992]

The Humans will keep making the Same Mistakes; if we look at their History ...

[@lawrencetaylor4101]

I think we are both Hopium Addicts, but I have been realistic in my habit. Even before the lockdown, Europe was on a goal to being able to convert it's transportation fleet by just 4% electric cars by 2023. I have been promoting Windyday Concept and I think that it matches every point of discussion in your video. Worker coop factories in all cities to make batteries, solar panels, wind & tide turbines, tiny homes with local farms. In our area of about 800,000 people we calculated that by producing 5,000 EVs with a 50 kWh battery, we would have a virtual battery of 250 MWh and with vehicle to grid technology we could power 100% with renewable energy. There is a YUGE problem and that is that most people have believed the Oil Lobby lies about batteries and renewable energy. It will be difficult for governments and academic institutions to admit that they were corrupted by Koch Brothers influence. Unfortunately I see Amazon pushing for their package delivery economy which is wasteful, and very plastic intensive. I think that the Basel petrochemical industrial capitol will force us to continue on our 7°C warming path with a ten-fold increase in plastics. Unless we can make the General Strike work for us.

[@gaenorharris-obrien9934]

Now it s 7°? Not 2°

[@gaenorharris-obrien9934]

What general strike? Wont this COVID isolation serve as well?

[@gaenorharris-obrien9934]

@@erdelegy some small countries are 100% well two?

[@JustHaveaThink]

Hi Lawrence. That's very insightful commentary. I certainly err towards the optimistic end of the spectrum, that's true. I think politicians are essentially spineless - forced into short term placation of the populous by electoral systems that mean they are judged every four or five years. I'm not suggesting that a dictatorship is a better solution - history shows us how those usually end. But I wonder if this pandemic and the rising call for change that appears to be surfacing as people actually see what clean air looks like in their cities might just imbue the lawmakers with sufficient backbone to ramp up their policies. Who knows? We shall see :-)

[@richjnev70]

Green Industry, an oxymoron

[@stephenrichards5386]

The key issue here is whether the climate models can now predict the change in CO², the change in temperature, the change in weather patterns that the economic shutdown of the whole world will cause and before the event rather than after.

[@grindupBaker]

No, it's impossible because (1) climate models are for climate, not weather and climate can't be much less than 33 years to get few ENSO cycles in & to generally "average out" all the random ocean noise (2) climate models can't predict what humans will do and can't predict what viruses will do. That's why they call them "projections" rather than your "predictions". ---------------- Very few people know this (I've actually studied) but completely random changes in the global cloud amount mean that the heater (energy imbalance that causes global warming) can oscillate as much as barely above zero for 4 weeks of so and then be at twice it's average value for the next 4 weeks or so. This means that just 3 or 4 months could be hugely altered temporarily by these random cloud changes so it needs 12 months just to start getting the randomness out of it, so as you see the climate models are definitely useless over a few months time scale, not at all great over a decade and get increasingly better extending to a century or some such because they produce bulk statistical changes. You clearly see this on the spaghetti graphs everywhere where they are just a wide blur of colours all over the place and you run a line down the middle of it all to get a reasonably accurate result from the average of all of them.

[@stephenrichards5386]

@@grindupBaker have you not read the UKMO website? They say that their weather model is the same one as their climate model and that it would give them the ability to forecast accurately 10 years ahead. I know their models are crap as are all models. However, some, the physical models, provide a means of predicting the behaviour of subatomic particles. Others, such as the virus and climate model gives us the means to totally destroy our economies.

[@grindupBaker]

@@stephenrichards5386 "whether the climate models can now predict the change in CO²". No the climate models cannot predict the change in CO² and never will because they aren't psychic. That's why they have CO2 "emissions scenarios" with little acronyms like RCP 2.6, RCP 6.0, RCP 8.5 you ignoramus. Learn at least the basics before babbling.

[@grindupBaker]

"can now predict .... the change in temperature". Climate models can predict the change in Earth's Global Mean Surface Temperature (GMST) over periods of 50 years or so accurately enough (+/- 20% anyway) provided that humans burn carbon at the same rate that's used in the models. Climate models cannot predict the change in GMST over periods such as 30 years or less because they aren't managing to get the ENSO cycles accurate enough because nobody has figured out exactly how to know when a big El Nino will happen so they are random.

[@grindupBaker]

@@stephenrichards5386 "Others, such as the virus and climate model gives us the means to totally destroy our economies" You are a stupid worthless pointless babbling fuckwit babbling away at your fuckwitted crap. It's called "sloganeering" and it's entirely worthless, the same as you are.

[@celestinosilva8681]

Its going to be business as usual, guarantied, heck i doubt health care systems will see any betterment and founding once this pandemic dies down.

[@grindupBaker]

"stephen richards" "The key issue here is whether the climate models can now predict the change in CO², the change in temperature, the change in weather patterns that the economic shutdown of the whole world will cause and before the event rather than after". ------------------- No, it's impossible because (1) climate models are for climate, not weather and climate can't be much less than 33 years to get few ENSO cycles in & to generally "average out" all the random ocean noise (2) climate models can't predict what humans will do and can't predict what viruses will do. That's why they call them "projections" rather than your "predictions". ---------------- Very few people know this (I've actually studied) but completely random changes in the global cloud amount mean that the heater (energy imbalance that causes global warming) can oscillate as much as barely above zero for 4 weeks of so and then be at twice it's average value for the next 4 weeks or so. This means that just 3 or 4 months could be hugely altered temporarily by these random cloud changes so it needs 12 months just to start getting the randomness out of it, so as you see the climate models are definitely useless over a few months time scale, not at all great over a decade and get increasingly better extending to a century or some such because they produce bulk statistical changes. You clearly see this on the spaghetti graphs everywhere where they are just a wide blur of colours all over the place and you run a line down the middle of it all to get a reasonably accurate result from the average of all of them.

[@realvanman1]

Our individual consumption and pollution is far from the real problem. It's the number of us consuming and polluting all at once. We have a choice. We can choose Austerity, or we can choose to collectively control our numbers going forward. Look at the picture of India that was shown!!! How do people see that, and never make the connection?!? Every country should have a target population to get down to, with the ultimate goal of getting the total down to MUCH lower than it is now. Only getting down to One Billion would still feel like a breath of fresh air for the whole world, and 100 Million would be (literally) an order of magnitude better! Sure, we should absolutely be concurrently looking to clean up our act. But NOT through austerity measures! Maybe you could impose the austerity measures on those who have two or more children. But even that's not fair, since they didn't know any better.

[@eliasmondino]

The United States doubles the amount of carbon dioxide per capita produced by China. I think that saying that China is the most polluting country in the world, although true, is misleading because it has a larger population.

[@EdSurridge]

Keep on about how Govs subsidize a symbiotic "kill them with our Co2" policy and liking the consensus seeking from almost all sides :)

[@Saurondor]

I sure hope we don't go back to business as usual as there will be no vaccine against global warming. And no amount of stay at home hashtags is going to lower sea levels anytime soon once the Antarctic shelves break away and melt.

[@andrewcheadle948]

The vaccine appears to be to give up your money in the form of carbon taxes, higher energy and fuel prices. Of course this will make not one jot of difference to co2 levels or global temp, but will make the wealthy wealthier! Kerching!

[@Saurondor]

@@andrewcheadle948 I'm not sure they really want a vaccine for global warming. One thing I learned from the covid crisis is the willingness of people to try to make money from these situations. Why prevent when mitigation is way more profitable. I'm afraid it's more a willingness to profit from global warming.

[@leskuzyk2425]

The GFN Overshoot Day says yes ... so far in measurement ... the virus has reduced emissions

[@mikesmotors3007]

We are 5 to 7 degrees Fahrenheit warmer than predicted temps. Seems to be costal. Inland temperatures have been accurately predicted.

[@grindupBaker]

"We are 5 to 7 degrees Fahrenheit warmer than predicted temps". Where are you ? You didn't say and a Google isn't locating Mike's Motors store

[@mikesmotors3007]

@@grindupBaker Southern California. Check other locations they seem to be off as well. Less sulfides from pollution seems to be the cause. No one in the weather industry seems to notice some how.

[@grindupBaker]

​@@mikesmotors3007 Thanks Mike. If I get around to it I'll try to keep a more-frequent eye on the Climate Reanalyzer. What's been happening since ~May 1st in the northern hemisphere, where you live, is that the Jet Stream has been on quite an interesting series of wonks. So the hemisphere isn't getting much warmer (or cooler) but the air is being shoved around making some big areas warmer than usual and some other big areas cooler than usual. Globally May 2020 was 0.02 degrees warmer than the overall global warming trend of the last 50 years. So you draw a trend line through the last 50 years and May 2020 should be the next point on that line but actually it was 0.02 degrees above that line. There was an extra 0.02 degrees from somewhere.

[@simonlusty1]

Everything working for the good of the people - A new Socialism anyone?

[@fireofenergy]

Socialism requires that _everyone_ within that system to work for the common good. As soon as one individual says "Why should I work?" or one leader says "What can I get out of this system", the whole concept turns upside down, into the inability to compete economically and thus, militarily with the once free market nations. Therefore, in order to keep the "subjects" in line, they must literally rip people apart on camera for use as examples of forced compliance. Stalin did this kind of shit millions of times...

[@dogphlap6749]

@@fireofenergy Stalin was a communist. The Scandinavian countries, and many other countries flirt with socialist government off and on. They seem to be doing fine, many of the folks there are actually happier than you appear to be. If you like living in a country where corporations call the shots for both major parties and the middle class have seen real wages fall continuously since Reagan was President good for you. A country that rose to prominence through manufacturing now manufactures very little because the corporations who control everything make more money importing from China, the rise in unemployment as you moved from a manufacturing giant to a service economy is just a price the powerless has to pay. Enjoy unalloyed capitalism where merit has little to do with getting a degree, it comes down to can you afford the student loan (spoiler, most can't).

[@fireofenergy]

@@dogphlap6749 Yes, I have to agree about the Nordic countries. However, I thought they were also capitalist.

[@dogphlap6749]

@@fireofenergy It's a mix, what you get depends on who you vote for. The choices tends to run from neo-Nazi's to communism but the extremes tend not to do very well at a general election. Socialists hold power most of the time but by no-means all the time. Socialism in those countries means free hospital care, free education (including university) and higher taxes (particularly but not exclusively on the rich).

[@devilmanscott]

@@dogphlap6749 Why do people not actually know Socialism. The guy who brought up Stalin was right, he was a Socialist, remember Marx and Engels saw Socialism and Communism as the same, it was only when Lenin came along he said that Socialism's goal is Communism basically it's a two step process. Firstly free stuff isn't Socialism, it's a complete change to the economic system where the workers control the means of production and private property is abolished, none of those government services follow either, If people who kept spouting about Socialism actually lived it, they would be the first to run away.

[@dimasa5800]

If decades of industrial pollution has caused global warming, how can a year or two of acutely reduced industrial pollution reverse this effect?

[@gavinmcintosh7022]

I was impressed in how fast the planet recovered during shutdowns. A few weeks and Venice canels clear, NOx over China disappears. This pause showed what is needed better than any modeling. Business as usual? Less people killed by air pollution also helps the planet. CO2 is not the gas we need the worry about, it won't kill us, those others wastes products do.

[@Bilboswaggins2077]

It won’t

[@roberthicks1612]

Since the atmosphere is not sensitive to co2, and since co2 is going up just as fast without human help anyway, I really cant see any change happening because of the virus.

[@grindupBaker]

"Since the atmosphere is not sensitive to co2". Let's suppose that some bloke isn't sensitive to the complicated needs of the Missus. He arrives home (without flowers yet again) and a frying pan strikes the top of his noggin. You see how the atmosphere could get a huge bump even though it's not sensitive to co2, and actually specifically because it's not sensitive to co2. Words of wisdom from me for you all to ponder if you're unable to hide the frying pans.

[@roberthicks1612]

@@grindupBaker Lets suppose someone is not very sensitive to poison ivy. He runs though running away from flying frying pans and they all get it and die, but he got away unhurt. You see how unrelated ideas have no effect on the original? The earth is warming because glaciers are melting. The glaciers are not melting because the earth is warming.

[@robertcartwright8165]

I really can't see any good faith in your arguments.

[@roberthicks1612]

@@robertcartwright8165 I cant see any argument on your side at all.

[@grindupBaker]

"T CZ" "CO2 is currently not killing anyone". --------- It's entirely unclear. Over the decades the statistics will make it increasingly clear that a large portion of the heat deaths in Europe (Paris et al) are attributable to the global warming but for now it can only be said that your bold assertion is almost certainly incorrect.

[@sheilamacpherson4948]

I've been having a think for years. And for years I thought if a good plague could come along and whipe out a good 50 percent of us, the earth would be in good shape. Imagine my disappointment at Covid-19. Such a let down. That's this poor planets only hope. Is that we die off. Its the best thing for all other creatures, too.

[@rdreeves2332]

Please implement a permanent UBI now! Then we can transition to a RBE. Also support the Money Free Party and The Venus Project so we can finally go beyond politics poverty and war. That is if we wish to make it as a species.

[@grindupBaker]

​ bobtailvw22 Aircraft contrails are estimated by the scientific paper(s) in IPCC AR5 of 2013 to have been responsible for 0.03 degrees of the global warming since 1750 AD and estimated now to be amounting to 2.3% of the global heater of 400,000 gigawatts that is now heating Earth ecosphere and will be for the foreseeable future (except that the global heater will slowly, relentlessly increase over the years & decades). Hope this helps.

[@grindupBaker]

"Robert Callaghan" "Paul Beckwith says the recent global brightening has already caused the equivalent of 2.5 decades of global warming". --------------------- In reality, I know perfectly well that Paul Beckwith definitely didn't say anything even remotely like that recent global brightening has already caused the equivalent of 2.5 decades of global warming. What Paul Beckwith said, and you completely misunderstood, is that cleaning up all human air pollution permanently (so back to 1750 AD clean) would cause the equivalent of 2.5 decades of global warming over some unspecified number of years. I'm already far ahead of Paul Beckwith on the thermodynamics so I know the exact number of years as well as the scientists know it (it operates like a radioactive "half life" if you've heard of that concept) but I don't much bother to provide that information because it's longer than 10 lines and includes "numbers" so nobody in GoogleTube comments has the education or interest to study it.

[@MSGBlair]

As soon as the WHO was mentioned I automatically began to doubt the data that it had released.

[@grindupBaker]

I'd have preferred the Kinks but if it's from the 60s it's all good.

[@lyndaschroeder8117]

This is a great channel...however we still need Greta to keep yelling at the status quo folks. I agree that we must plan to 2030 goals, not 2050!! We may not be here then. We need to come up with ways to get ALL farmers to become organic now. Help them by providing compost that is made from all household and commercial food wastes and trillions of tree leaves hauled to the dump. It is something that can be done. We farmers changed over by cover cropping, and not filling the soil with synthetic nitrogen and pesticides. The humus was high and the earthworms were happy..and the food tasted good and did not need any 'additives'! (This autocorrect does speak

[@grindupBaker]

That's like a terrific Star Wars opening "In a time long long ago in a place far far away when the humus was high and the earthworms were happy......". Cut to Darth Vader.

[@n1mbusmusic606]

Nuclear power!!!!!!!

[@georgebalabanis8958]

Love your opening well said, I hope we are not closet junkies haha

[@greybone777]

Global temperature is increasing rapidly as we go into the grand solar minimum and the jet stream collapses and brings the polar vortex to Mexico 🤣🤣🥶🥶🥶🥶🤣

[@lanesteele240]

It was planned for this reason.

[@grindupBaker]

This comment is for kzbin.info/www/bejne/qXSokqqcpamiepI Offhand I entirely disagree with Paul's WG2 food crops analysis at 2:44 ("wipe out the food supply") in which he confidently assesses based on his analysis that when the Arctic Ocean includes 94.00% open water surface for 1 day in September the food crops in the northern hemisphere will be the same as they've been the last decade but when the Arctic Ocean includes 94.25% open water surface for 1 day in September (the BOE definition) the food crops in the northern hemisphere will be 0% from then on. I've no idea how many thousands of hours Paul spent studying the Jet Stream changes for 94.25% open water surface vs 94.00% open water surface for 1 day in September and how he analyzed that that drop in food crop production in the northern hemisphere from 100% of present amount to 0% crops results from 94.25% instead of 94.00% open water. I've never studied it at all so even if Paul studied that particular topic for only 5,000 hours before presenting that thorough analysis here his bare 5,000 hours is well in excess of my own studying for that. I just have an "intuition" that northern hemisphere crop yields will instead just gradually reduce but with huge annual variability as the 6 months of April, May, June, July, August & September have increasingly less cumulative (daily amounts added) Arctic Ocean sea ice and end up at 80% to 95% of the present amount when all Arctic sea ice is gone all year round. I'm only making a wild guess though and it will be A COLD DAY IN HELL when Paul Beckwith finally deigns to dispense from his Throne (probably his toilet) his full data, analysis & calculations for his utterly-confident 100%-reliable "wipe out the food supply" drop in the crop production in the northern hemisphere from 100% to 0% the year after the Arctic Ocean includes 94.25% open water surface for 1 day in September, and every year thereafter. Perhaps, one of you browsing past is a crop scientist and can provide statistics. From the comments I've read from all of you over 2 years there's no doubt at all that you're all brilliant, thoughtful scientists and not lazy, babbling, brain-dead imbeciles in the slightest.