Can Jakob Ingebrigtsen break the 1500m World Record?

I look into some factors why a world record attempt may or may not be successful.

[@timothypeitsch4904]

Soon the running world will realize that Nick Willis is the greatest distance commentator of our time :) Better brace yourself for a new career Nick. These videos are excellent.

[@jkhoudini]

Second that. He was very open and gracious with his time with young runners on our team while VNTC was in honolulu for Tokyo tuneup. Great dude.

[@billybud9557]

True! We had to suffer thru Ato Bolden commentating and....It was not the best...by a lot. After Nick finishes his career (after a medal in Paris) Please commentate for us.....

[@waterproof4403]

Brendan Foster and Steve

[@billybud9557]

@@waterproof4403 Big Bren always does a good job

[@waterproof4403]

@@billybud9557 for sure! My favorite from him are his commentaries on the Great Haile Gebreselassie and Kenenisa. But its hard to pick really Brendan is amazing on every race he commentates on!

[@scottgretton2514]

Nick, you were the only honest, clean medalist at Beijing, and you've never made a fuss about it. More power to you for that. All true athletics fans know you are the true gold medalist from that Olympics. Kia kaha our Kiwi Champ.

[@nickwillisfourlaps]

appreciate the support, Scott.

[@TheAthleteSpecial]

only 8 on the start line for pre so should be a fast mile

[@nickwillisfourlaps]

I saw that. Was thinking there would be more added this week, but perhaps they received a request from Jakob's agent for such a field size?

[@TheAthleteSpecial]

@@nickwillisfourlaps I hope they open it up for Henry Wynne but keep it a relatively small field.

[@johndoe3707]

what’s good Spence?

[@adamfeerst2575]

Filip paces for 1/2-3/4 at mile WR pace?

[@mikediazArtist]

He has the potential: 1. He has very consistently run 3:31 or faster. 2. He still just 20yrs old 3. He can drop a 12:48 5k. He has the strength 4. He can run 1:46 800m 5. He has convincingly broken 3:30 in a tactical race situation. In a perfect situation with pace he can go way faster.

[@speedybull0911]

IMO needs a 1:44/45 800

[@brycew6675]

@@speedybull0911 he ran the 1:46 a while back i’m sure he could run faster now

[@robertspies4695]

In addition at Tokyo he jogged down the track after crossing the finish line which on top of his last 120 m looking easy was anoother indicator that he has more in the tank.

[@landonboomsma2594]

@@speedybull0911 was just gonna say he definitely can break 1:45. I think 1:43 might be tough since he’s an endurance based 15 guy

[@philomenaakpanaadie2015]

Tokyo wasn't a tactical race. The first lap may have been, but the pace was tremendous and Jakob and Timothy were leading the race with no trouble about the other athletes.

[@michaelwhiting5141]

Brilliant analysis (again) Nick. Stewy McSweyn is another guy that could probably run that pace to 1100-1200, but like you say would depend on whether he wants to sacrifice his own race or not.

[@nickwillisfourlaps]

Im not sure he can go 2.45. He's a strength guy maxed out at 2.47 and hanging on to 3.29

[@michaelwhiting5141]

@@nickwillisfourlaps That's fair. He's so slow off the start line that perhaps if there was a smaller field, like you suggest, he wouldn't have to waste so much energy and run extra distance to get around everyone like he seems to have to in almost every race. Anyway love your videos, brilliant analysis! Keep them coming!

[@nickwillisfourlaps]

@@michaelwhiting5141 yeah thats a very good point. He definitely has to run an extra 5 or so meters every race because of that.

[@sundog1973]

@@nickwillisfourlaps 2:47 to 3:29 is still 55 pace. Stewy can definitely handle 1200 at 2:45. It would be a great opportunity for him!

[@brendandunn6331]

Superb commentary. Thanks Nick!

[@nickwillisfourlaps]

Cheers, Brendan!

[@arcadiandj]

I'm 55 and have been a middle/distance running fan since I ran in high school and college. Never ran or had coaching at your level, but WOW!!! I have never heard your level of analysis on running a world record!!! That was SO AMAZING/EDUCATIONAL. Thank you so much. I'd love to hear you and Nick Symmonds talk about race tactics/review famous races! I would pay for that. Seriously.

[@nickwillisfourlaps]

This really means lot, Daniel. Thank you. Responses like this will motivate me to keep this channel going.

[@technicalmaneuver]

new favorite running channel, please start commentating nick

[@nickwillisfourlaps]

Thanks Elijah, appreciate the encouragement.

[@emmanuelwallace8364]

He also negative split every lap his 3:28 at the olympics

[@nickwillisfourlaps]

Yeah that was incredible how that played out. I've always believed a slight negative split is the fastest way to run a 15

[@aldopedroso6212]

Fantastic to hear the intricacies and details of elite level running.

[@nickwillisfourlaps]

Really appreciate it, Aldo.

[@aldopedroso6212]

@@nickwillisfourlaps OMG! You're on here! There a million platforms talking about elite athletes and its all a hypothetical exercise. Jakob has a 1:46.44 best from last year and he is focusing more on the 5k now and has said his best distance ultimately would be the half marathon. World record pace is 1:50. Run 3.5 off your 800 best and keep going at the same pace for another 700? Then again, though I've heard many say El G could run a 1:43, his best is actually only 1:47.18.

[@sunnydays5581]

He will break the world record for both the mile and 1500m. When? not on anybody's timeline. He's 20! He trains like a beast, has brothers to motivate him, goals obsessed, the right race, the right pace and conditions, he will surprise us all. Not once, but multiple times

[@thanossnap4170]

Right? I feel like many people forget that he is still just 20 years old. That's nothing. He broke the 4min mile at 16, which i think he was the first one to do at that age? Like ever? And he just keeps improving. I agree, he will break the world record. I predict it will happen sometime in the next 4-5 years.

[@sunnydays5581]

@@thanossnap4170 The easiest 3.47 mile, i have seen in my life today. Destroyed a world-class field. Well done McSewyn

[@josephstewart2827]

The 1500 may be easier but the mile is going to be harder

[@tennisnow2448]

@@josephstewart2827 1500m easy ? U kidding?

[@lifeofscandy]

I thoroughly enjoyed this one. Keep making these please!

[@nickwillisfourlaps]

Thanks Scott. Will keep at it, so long as there's interest.

[@DavidHudman]

I wonder how far Henrik and Filip can take him in a 1500 WR attempt. It would be really cool to do it with just the brothers doing the pacing. It would also set him up for some press hype from journalists who want to write a headline about how a world record holder owes it all to his family support system.

[@carsongambaro]

I’d like to see him tether Filip below 3:30, since his PB is just .01 outside of that barrier

[@nickwillisfourlaps]

Yeah that'd be ideal. I'd love to see that too. If Filip rounds back into top form that could be possible.

[@ianbusche1471]

Henrik could take them through 800m I’d bet and then if Filip can get back close to 3:30 shape he could go 1100-1200m before having to drop off

[@dhdavidholloway]

A very in depth analysis by somebody who really understands what is needed. BBC should be hiring Nick when his career has finished

[@nickwillisfourlaps]

Thanks for the encouragement, David.

[@juliusoosthuizen7993]

I'm showing my age here, but I still remember the EL G / Lagat 1500m vividly, and then on Rieti going back all the way to Coe's 800m WR. Thanks for the great analysis Nick, and for stirring up some lovely memories!

[@nickwillisfourlaps]

Thanks, Julius.

[@ZeldaFitz]

I thought Coe set the 800 world record 1:41.73 in Florence?

[@juliusoosthuizen7993]

@@ZeldaFitz my apologies - you're correct! Coe ran his 1500m PB in Rieti.

[@xxhound]

appreciate your insights and your relaxed presentation - two thumbs UP !!!!

[@nickwillisfourlaps]

Josh. I figured relaxed and low production makes it a sustainable channel-no way I'd have the time or ability to get a weekly video out otherwise.

[@xxhound]

@@nickwillisfourlaps I I am 78 old Track Fan in Nevada USA - from early age I have following Track and Field ( mostly running) - I was following milers in 1958 the Tokyo Olympics had many amazing performances -I think training for middle distance runners has to be tailor made - like a custom suit ! Individuals are different , one size does not fit EVERY ONE ! I never support any nation in competitions - I support excellence from any Race or any Nation- Nick , your commentaries are really EXCELLENT !

[@erwankinsella3641]

Was pleasantly surprised to see a fellow Olympian ( 2 time medalist) commenting about Jakob's chance at the WR. Your take is fantastic Nick, maybe we might see the mile WR go down next year in Oslo thoughts on that track?

[@nickwillisfourlaps]

Apprciate the kind words, Erwan. Oslo is weather dependent, but can be very fast in the right conditions. My mile PR was run there.

[@matthewnewnham-runner-writer]

Hey @Nick Willis I only just found your channel today (breezing through your Twitter channel). Really appreciate and resonate with your insights on this. Best from Valencia 😎

[@robertspies4695]

I love your in-depth analysis; best I've heard by far.

[@yeahbaby3239]

I love your insight! Thanks for sharing 👍🏻

[@nickwillisfourlaps]

cheers!

[@sup8872]

Awesome analysis Nick! I have enjoyed watching you race at the highest level for so many years!

[@cakej1]

Nick, nice video. You definitely are the expert in this topic. Still running great times. Very inspirational.

[@nickwillisfourlaps]

Thanks, Judson, I appreciate the support!

[@Funkyjamdude]

Excellent video, Nick. Monaco 2022 seems like the place to do it, assuming it is placed after the World Athletics Champs [July 15th to 24th, 2022] - Erik Sowinski through 400m at 55, 600 at 1:22 - Giles through 800 in 1:50 - McSweyn or Kipsang to maybe 1100 meters? or as far as they can go... Cheruiyot would also like to take a fresh crack at the WR, remember Monaco 2020 was run with HORRIBLE splits (52???) and he still finished in 3:28. I reckon a 2:46low is optimal? Both he and Jakob have come through in 2:48s before, but it would be tough. For ref, Monaco '18 was 55.31, 1:51.71, 2:48.06 at 1200m This year's Monaco was 54.2, 1:50.75, 2:48.46 at 1200m Ideally for Jakob, Tim would take the lead and push from the bell, then Jakob could slide past on the homestretch. 3:25.97 for Jakob, 3:26low for Tim? Who knows...

[@Funkyjamdude]

im dumb, this Olympic final was a 2:47 split! therefore 2:45s seems more doable

[@nickwillisfourlaps]

Good point on Erik Sowinski!

[@supragraf]

I watched you run the 1500m in Monaco in 2012 when you broke the national record. Always been a big fan! Keep up the good work.

[@nickwillisfourlaps]

Thanks, Mitchell

[@ErikT92]

Very good insights here, greetings from Norway

[@nickwillisfourlaps]

Thanks! The Willises have enjoyed our times visiting Oslo

[@reidun-engh8824]

@@nickwillisfourlaps Really? What attracted you mostly to our small capital if I may ask?? :)

[@vishaldubey5699]

@@reidun-engh8824 beautiful ladies like you 😍

[@reidun-engh8824]

@@vishaldubey5699 Ahh.... you are too sweet ❤️!!

[@pjoseph1658]

My humble opinion is that Jacob needs to bring his 100 meter, 400 meter, and 800 (and 1000) meter times down. His 5000 meter, 10,000 meter, times are already good, and for a man his strength and size---incredible. Mileage is good---Snell ran marathon distances, under Lydiard. But Percy Cerutti was right, too---resistance training (running sand hills), weights, and concentrating on speed. Coe worked on speed, essentially; with down hill and slope running to increase leg speed, and 100 meter reps (as per 400 meter training). That's all. Jacob could run sub 3:24-22. It's possible. He started early, and has been training all his life. He is tough, has stamina, and endurance. Just needs leg speed, and anaerobic stamina, to be able to sustain a faster pace through each lap. He can run as new world record even without any of this. Hicham El Guerrouj ran a 1:47, 800 meters best. Jacob has already run under that (1:46, plus). But it is a question of how fast he wishes to run, and by how much he wishes to break the world record. He is destined to be the greatest, and unsurpassable for a long time (like El Guerrouj). In my mind, he already is. He just need to prove it. Time will tell.

[@pjoseph1658]

Running up mountains is a very good strategy: for leg strength, and stamina and endurance. Norway has'em all. He should try swimming fjords. I'm serious. Mixing his training in winter with some cross-country skiing, and in spring, cycling on a bike. Whatever to increase oxygen intake, strength, etc...Use of different muscles, etc...I realize that running on a treadmill (both on flat and inclines) has vastly improved running dynamics. As has cycling on a stationary bike, etc. Times evolve as men and technology evolve. High altitude training is now crucial, and all terrain running. It is really a science now. Far eclipsing Paavo Nurmi and his dependency on his stopwatch that he always ran with. I can't wait for Paris Olympics. A coming full circle.

[@mickymogz]

Great analysis, there. But you missed on a few items: 1. Cutting down the 2.33 seconds from 3:28.32 isn't quite as linear, its almost like it starts getting exponentially harder with each 0.5s you improve on. Hicham for example tried improving his own world record on many occasions between 1999 - 2002. He got four more 3:26's, another four 3:27's and six 3:28's for a total of fifteen sub 3:29 performances. El Guerrouj had faster splits at 1200m in four subsequent races compared to his world record race, but couldn't finish as fast in any of them. What remains astonishing about his world record was that he kicked the last 300m in 39 seconds!! (52s lap pace) and this was off a 2:46 high 1200m split. Would be interesting to see Jakob go for it, he can definitely go under 3:28 but it still remains a huge gap to close.

[@nickwillisfourlaps]

Very good points. However the 39 close doesn't surprise me, as fast closes are the best way to maximize a 1500m time in my opinion-stay under the red line as long as possible, then tap into your anaerobic reserve. I think the main reason EL G missed out in future attempts is because he started losing a little of his 800m ability. He became a stronger runner, but fractionally slower speed wise.

[@bryantcullen1377]

You're a freaking legend!

[@nickwillisfourlaps]

Thanks for the support, Bryant.

[@peterkalsenpetersen5361]

1) The Tokyo race was so perfect for Jacob. More or less even pace throughout the race and Timothy acting as pacemaker for 1400 m. In a diamond league race pacemakers usually last for 1000-1200 m. 2) For the Mile race in Prefontaine I hope we will see some fast times. It has been a while since we saw real fast miler times. 3.43.13 wont be in reach IMO, but 3.45, 3.46, 3.47 should be capable for Jakob, Timothy and Kerr. Fingers crossed for some regular fast speed middle distance running there. 3) The 7.20.67 3k Komen record is often referred to as the greatest middledistance record. I believe the 3.26.00 1500 record is at the same level. Jakob has the potential of breaking all of the records 1500, mile, 2000, 3000 and 5000. 4) And then we need to remember that Jakob is not the only one running fast. Timothy is still in the mix as well as Kipsang, Kerr is improving with a steep curve and the newcomer Cole Hocker is now down to 3.31.40. 5) All of the above leads me to the conclusion that us middledistance fans should be up for some great action for the next 5-10 years :)

[@nickwillisfourlaps]

Thanks for your detailed thoughts, Peter. Yes the next 5 years are going to be great for mid distance fans.

[@BrendanBradford1]

Sensational analysis. Really enjoyed it

[@nickwillisfourlaps]

Thanks Brendan, really appreciate it.

[@stormedbyhippiesc3966]

Good video! Excited to see what happens in Oregon. The wind will be difficult but exciting.

[@nickwillisfourlaps]

Weather looking better by the day!

[@ВасилийЦарев-я4л]

Watching Jacob in the final race, it's safe to say that he was able to run in 3.27.5! He is of course a genetic one, but I can't believe that he will be able to run in 3.25! I think it will stop at 3.26.9! All the same, to run over 3.25, it is not enough to be incredibly tough, you need speed. If he manages to run 800 in 1.45.0, then maybe! It seems to me that he has more chances to beat the world at 5000m!

[@robinbauer1975]

Agree but not with any 5.000m WR kkkkkk

[@jamiekeir8019]

HOW DARE SOMEBODY DISLIKE THIS VIDEO!!

[@adomaskuzinas2137]

Great work Nick! An instant sub from me.

[@nickwillisfourlaps]

Thanks, Adomas

[@Trailrunner1978]

Not only will he take the 1500 WR , he will take the 1 mile WR within 1-2 years, and the 5000 WR in 1-3 years. The 10000 record in 2-3 years. Maybe also road racing WR too. And the Half maraton WR within 3-4 years. The potential is unlimited. I think he will be up there with Bekele, and Kipchoge in 10 years time as The Goat. 🇧🇻

[@ianbusche1471]

10000 is highly unlikely and I’d say the half marathon is a no. He’s only 20 so I doubt in 3-4 years he’ll move up to half marathons.

[@waterproof4403]

Ehh I think you're highly overrating him Not even close. Kenenisa was 21 when he set the world records. Which still stand today! (I don't know why cheptegeis record is official as he had a whole organization staging an event just to break the record. With fancy wave lights on the track..) Anyways I wish jakob good luck It's good to be hopeful but not delusional

[@waterproof4403]

@@ianbusche1471 ^

[@ianbusche1471]

@@waterproof4403 Well you could say the same about Kipchoge needing lights, interchanging pacers and a specialized course just to break 2 hours. I think Jakob could break 1500m-5000m but he has never even run a 10000 before and Bekele was running 10kms way before he broke the record.

[@waterproof4403]

@@ianbusche1471 exactly about kipchoge! His marathon isn't official and cheptegeis 5000m and 10,000m shouldn't be either. No one even came CLOSE to Kenenisas records since 2004-2005 and suddenly cheptegei breaks both with the help of technology. Same thing with the womens 10,000m and 5000m. They were untouchable till Nike(NN) started organizing events specifically to target them. Well I wish jakob good luck but its gonna be very hard to beat the Kenyans and Ethiopians in those distances. Harder than we could imagine

[@michealsizemore1]

I think that he eventually will beak it. He is naturally more of a long distance runner so when/if he breaks the 1500 meter WR he can move on and break the 5000 & 10,000 meter records, which I have not doubt he will do. The 1500 meter is his favorite and in the family bloodline.

[@lincolnhome07]

Really excellent analysis, Nick. I can't think of anyone else giving this level of insight, as a current competitor against these very same athletes. That's invaluable. Also, I would add my vote for Sowinski. He has demonstrated some very precise pace-making in recent Euro events.

[@nickwillisfourlaps]

Thanks Lincoln. Yeah, good thought in Sowinski. He's done a great job as the first rabbit.

[@billybud9557]

Great analysis from a guy that truly knows his stuff. Everyone likes to see a record....but I think that the Olympics took a lot out of everyone. Mile record is safe in Eugene, and 1500 unlikely this year. And no way Cheruiyot will pace (like he accidentally did in the Games)....he's only 25, he will try to win. thanks for posting.

[@nickwillisfourlaps]

Thanks Billy. Yes I feel the same way. Although the counter argument is that El G and Lagat's 3.26 race came a couple of weeks after the 2001 world champs. Granted the world champs aren't as emotionally draining as the Olympics.

[@billybud9557]

@@nickwillisfourlaps thank you, sir. I felt like a big weight fell off of Ingie, and he will need time to recover....hope I'm wrong.

[@craigneeve61]

Do the 800 metre summaries as well

[@tomosrees468]

Such a great video, we need you on commentary!

[@japeking1]

Totally disinterested in athletics but..... this was really interesting! Its just great when someone who knows what they are talking about can explain things simply.. Thank you.

[@nickwillisfourlaps]

Thanks you,. One of the goals for this channel is to make middle distance running more interesting to people but diving deep into the different nuances of the events.

[@cactuskiwi]

Great insights.

[@timw4369]

Yes he can. He's close and with some competition he has a chance.

[@mattdevries880]

Hey Nick ,it would be amazing to see a video analysis of your 1500 PB or the best performance you had at a championship. You explain your tactics and what you were thinking as well

[@nickwillisfourlaps]

Not sure I'll ever review my own race, sorry. Would feel like interviewing yourself on a podcast.

[@zyabayz101]

@@nickwillisfourlaps Well, who could possibly do a better job of interviewing you, than you? If there really is someone, maybe you could team up with them. It would be a fascinating exercise. For example, a insider's play-by-play of that...unusual...Rio 2016 final would be pretty darn interesting.

[@FranklynAlvarez]

Do you think Cheriyuit will ever catch back up? I'm pulling for Hocker and Kessler in the '24 games, the Aussie's are looking great too. Stewie's a brave soul. Would love to hear your opinion on these guys, the future of the 1500 is bright!

[@shangrila73eldorado]

He also seemed to slow down at the end...in the last 10 meters

[@Mauirunner]

Great insight Nick. Got to see you at the Iolani track with Spencer and Jon before the Olympics. Awesome content, definitely would love to hear more. Bekele and Berlin?

[@nickwillisfourlaps]

Thanks, Matt

[@shandytorok259]

Jakob at age 19 won the olympics on 1500m with a strong time, not like Centro with 3:50! They say he was 20, but check the date of the final and his birthday... That alone is unheard of, correct me if I'm wrong. He is a 13:02 runner at age 18 and a high 27 on 10K. Jakob will soon enough break the 1500m WR, that's for sure, he can pace himself, just like Rudisha did in LDN 2012. I wouldn't be surprised if Jakob would break the 1500 several times! It's only depends on his frame of mind, physically he is ready. I even would risk the statement that he can break one day the 5K and 10K WR too!

[@rodneytopor1846]

The fast Tokyo track supposedly helped the sprinters. Did it help the 1500m runners too? Is the track a factor in 1500m WR attempts?

[@nickwillisfourlaps]

For different reasons there are fast tracks around the world. The surface, the radius of the turns, the double tail wind...

[@dnomyarg32]

Love these videos, thank you so much for sharing your thoughts. How much time do you think the pacing lights would be worth, if any?

[@nickwillisfourlaps]

Thanks so much, Raymond. I think the main help is the provide a governor for the rabbits in the first couple of laps, so they don't over do it. so maybe .5 of a second?

[@dnomyarg32]

@@nickwillisfourlaps Thank you for responding. .5 seconds sounds like a lot by the measures you give.

[@SiFuJasper]

Jacob needs Timothy to agree to also attempt the world record so they can push each other.

[@Regimeshifts]

agreed. iron sharpens iron

[@pete5691]

Very true. 3:26 was really a two man effort.

[@mitchelljack1590]

I think he could with those Monaco pacing lights

[@CliveBramham]

Thanks very much!

[@nickwillisfourlaps]

Appreciate it, Clive.

[@pete5691]

Jakob only needs his two brothers as pacers. One to pace through 1100 then one to chase in the last lap. Besides the WR stuff though, even if it never happens, Jakob, his brothers and family are amazing talents.

[@nickwillisfourlaps]

I wish that were possible, but unfortunately They would only likely be able to get him to the 1000m mark at the required pace (maybe 1100 if Filip gets back to his top form)

[@samuelhall6226]

Hi Nick, great analysis. Out of curiosity, how friendly are you with the Ingebrigtsen brothers off the track?

[@nickwillisfourlaps]

Thanks Samuel. I've known and spent a lot of time chatting with Henrick and Gjert since 2012. I have also run with Filip a few times, but have only had a couple of chats with Jakob.

[@thisopinionwillexpire]

Oof. Gotta keep these up. Beautiful analysis from the inside.

[@nickwillisfourlaps]

Thanks, mate. Responses like this certainly make it easy to stay motivated to make these videos.

[@surfer1100]

Great content, network TV sign him up! 👍🏻

[@sankubanku1633]

What are your post Olympic plans Nick? Are you going to continue running the 1500, move up to the marathon or retire? Either case All the best. I am enjoying your videos

[@nickwillisfourlaps]

Just taking it day by day, which for the last week has involved no running :) I'll get back into it to help out my training partners.

[@udontknowme7798]

He will take the double in Eugene World Championship 2022, and Would Record in both 1500 and 5000 meter. But I also think he will set World record on 3000meter. And I would be surprised if he made to set WR on one Mile already now, but never say never? He can do surprise, that's for sure.

[@nickwillisfourlaps]

Thanks for your thoughts, Atgeir. Exciting times ahead!

[@Quixote56]

Nick - What do you think of the Pre results? Do a video?

[@nickwillisfourlaps]

I'll have to go buy a razor, as I'm away on vacation, and didn't bring my shaver with me!

[@Bdx357]

No pacers as well… that’s a huge helpful reason

[@nickwillisfourlaps]

No official pacemakers, but Cheryiot did a mighty job of clocking fast lap splits for Jakob to follow.

[@weljenks]

If he pushes the pace he may just set it up for Tim to pass him in the home stretch. Considering Tim has won 9 of the last 10 head to head, no one should be surprised if that happens.

[@nickwillisfourlaps]

Great great point. I guess that could be a very strong reason why it won't likely happen at the Diamond League, unless Tim is the one going for the time.

[@nenadvasileski4282]

Weljenks Jenkins I will be very surprised.

[@liamroche1473]

A mile should be almost exactly 0.5% slower paced than a 1500m, based on a reliable general relationship between distance and speed. To me this suggests there should be only the faintest differential advantage between these two events.

[@tangarz5357]

Hayward is a full stadium now so wind will play a lot less of factor.

[@nickwillisfourlaps]

unfortunately the north end is still completely open, and that's where the prevailing wind seems to come from. Good for the sprinters though!

[@tangarz5357]

@@nickwillisfourlaps, I just looked at pictures, and that end does have stands but is really flat. But the bowl shape might trap air so the airflow should be reduced but I'm no aero expert.

[@tylerre3698]

I’d like to think Jake Wightman could get to 1200m in 2.45 given that he’s run 3.29 and 1.44 low (not too far off what Giles has run outdoors), but as you said he might believe he’s too good of a runner to be used as a pacemaker.

[@nickwillisfourlaps]

Yep. I'd say Cheryiot, Kerr, Kipsang, Whiteman and Hocker could do it (of the 1500m guys). Maybe McSwyen and Centro too.

[@markbateman9222]

He is almost certainly capable of breaking the WR - but I doubt if he will do it this year. Fatigue, both physical and emotional will see to that. He will probably have a serious go at it in the build up to next years championship.

[@nickwillisfourlaps]

Great observation. I didn't account for mental fatigue. That was certainly evident from many of the US Olympians who tried to race in Europe right after their Trials. The ones who missed making the team crushed it in Europe, but the Olympians were flat.

[@lincolnhome07]

@@nickwillisfourlaps Good point. Kate Grace and Isaiah Harris being good examples.

[@michaelayling8855]

Will they use the track lights as pace guides.

[@nickwillisfourlaps]

I would assume so, but not every track has implemented them yet.

[@DavidPaulandBillT]

I honestly think he can break the mile world record at the pre classic if the pacers set it up perfectly

[@nickwillisfourlaps]

Weather is starting to look good.

[@johnedwards2051]

so right now at 951 pm on the 18 the weather for pre is the wind comeing ssw at 5mph ill be there so i hope this wind pattern holds

[@nickwillisfourlaps]

Yeah it's starting to look mighty good. One concern is the field size, as it's now over 12 people, and the mile is mighty difficult to get our in front of the field off the line when you start on a curve.

[@johnedwards2051]

@@nickwillisfourlaps 12 now huh thats a bit much now it says winds have shifted maybe wr but at least sub 346 im thinking

[@markdavies9544]

Can u make a training/training tips video for improving 1500m

[@nickwillisfourlaps]

Thanks for the suggestion. Always looking for ideas, as this is just in test of concept stage at this point. I'll consider it for sure, but for now will stick to analyzing the sport-much more fun!

[@krakhour2]

Josh Kerr coach says he is in 3.27 . Gonna be fun

[@krakhour2]

good shape for both

[@bob_o_baby826]

I just broke the Subscribe button that's for sure

[@nickwillisfourlaps]

cheers!

[@jackyjess7273]

Nick Symmonds & Nick Willis collab?!

[@surfer1100]

(Nick)^2 would be a great name!

[@philomenaakpanaadie2015]

yes.

[@rainbowmonkMC]

i feel like they have such different personalities. i'm not sure such a collab would be as fruitful as you think

[@nickwillisfourlaps]

Nick's a good mate. He's also a youtube star, might not have time for a little guy...

[@jackyjess7273]

@@nickwillisfourlaps haha maybe some day! keep up the videos!

[@nenadvasileski4282]

Jakob will break 1500m for shure, 1 mile looks easier to me (but you know better Nick), that mean he'll break too. I have no idea about 3000. It isn't olympic event and I don't watch to mutch (indoor only). Nice few videos Nick during your last Olympic, or maybe you plan to run next too 😀?

[@nickwillisfourlaps]

Yeah I'd say the mile and 1500 records are near identical on paper (maybe fractionally slower in the mile), but given that the mile is raced far less frequently, it's perhaps the more difficult record. I do agree that the mile is more in Jakob's wheelhouse, given his proclivity towards endurance training.

[@nenadvasileski4282]

@@nickwillisfourlaps I watched the last 5-6 Olympic 1500m finals again today. Interesting races. Hicham El Guerrouj lost and won in a similar way. 3 grand finals with 2 medals Nick. Smart racing, well done. However, what I saw from Jakob in the final, and before that in the first round, waiting for half a race to the last place, in the semifinals accelerating or slowing down exactly as much as he needed, for me is definitely the best final and the best performance of an athlete in 1500m on Olympic. I am expecting a very serious attack on the world record tomorrow. thank you for treating athletic fans from all around the world with a response to each one with respect from a real Olympic medalist

[@RossNixon]

A series of 400m pacemakers.

[@nbrowne1]

Against the rules. Record wouldn't stand.

[@yannickokpara4861]

According to studies 50-54 deg fahrenheit is optimal. As long as you keep warm before the gun goes then I don't see why cooler than 82 is a problem

[@nickwillisfourlaps]

Is that for all distances, or just the marathon? I find that very hard to believe that's the optimal temperature for anything shorter than the 10,000m

[@mikewhelan9561]

sheiit he knows the weather at a 1500 in 1998

[@jimrabbit96]

I predict Jakob will be the 5k winner I'm the next Olympics, the 10k winner in the next next Olympics, and the Marathon winner in the next next next Olympics

[@waterproof4403]

Oh please

[@jimrabbit96]

@@waterproof4403 Thank you

[@waterproof4403]

@@jimrabbit96 it's good to keep up the hope and I do wish jakob good luck. But what about the Kenyans? There are always gonna be elite East Africans in the 5000m 10,000m and Marathon. It's gonna be hard competing with them. Harder than we could imagine. But its not impossible so again I wish him luck!

[@jimrabbit96]

@natireviews Oh for sure, very unlikely that happens. If he wants goat status he'll have to do something like that. I'm just making waves, I don't mean to ignore the obvious challengers. I'm a big fan of Jakob personally, but there is no denying the African runners will always be some of the best runners in the world yes.

[@19Kamau79]

I doubt his chances of breaking WR as there's no pacer as Timothy Cheruiyot who is often leading to the end if "pacer" drops after 1100m it will affect the finishing time.

[@JJ-el2tk]

Really good analysis, totally agree with you that the 3000 WR is just insane ..but please change the title it's ingebrig ts en not ingebrig st en 😅

[@nickwillisfourlaps]

Can't believe I never knew his name was spelled that way! Thanks for the call out.

[@T.vango1]

Mcswain is willing to be his pacemaker again.

[@jammesvqk857]

The 3:26:00 of Hicham is way harder to beat than it seems.

[@nickwillisfourlaps]

yeah it would require the perfect race for anyone to break it.

[@derekmelts2983]

Current record holder was also doping so

[@alanschwartz8240]

i feel like the rounds kinda got to tim. he dropped a 3:27.8 in Monaco, not to say he didnt show up on the final, but just that he could be a wr threat like u said (still only 25 too)

[@nickwillisfourlaps]

He also claims his hamstring was bothering him, but the truth is that he ran faster than in Doha, when we all proclaimed that as the greatest front running performance. It's just that Jakob has improved and a front running 3.29 isn't good enough to pull away, it only sets tim up as a glorified pacemaker now. I still believe Tim would beat Jakob in a solo time trial (if they both had to do solo 1500m races and see who runs the faster time).

[@rrampaer]

C'mon Nick, Brussels is still 2+ week out, can't take it out of the equation just yet :D Saw you race in that very stadium for the "Brussels Grand Prix". Will you be there for the memorial or is the international season over for you ?

[@nickwillisfourlaps]

Hopefully the weather warms up for you guys! Season is over for me.

[@rrampaer]

@@nickwillisfourlaps nice sun and 22°C 🤩

[@ZeldaFitz]

He will break the 1500m world record by 2025.

[@ferno225]

he’s gonna break it

[@nickwillisfourlaps]

Love the enthusiasm. When do you think? This season or next year (or later)?

[@ferno225]

@@nickwillisfourlaps i think it’s possible this year but more likely next year

[@lanagorgeous9485]

Plus world record attempts have rabbits!

[@mason7642]

Guys he is 40 subs off of 1k lets fix this 😤 😑 😒 🙄

[@nickwillisfourlaps]

cheers, Mason!

[@rgdos1162]

Let me summarize, NO!

[@nenadvasileski4282]

I am kind of disappoint. Only Stewart support attack

[@nickwillisfourlaps]

It's tough coming back from the Olympics, especially with a 14 hour time chance from Tokyo to Eugene.

[@robinbauer1975]

Give him Noah Ngeny for 1100m. And Jakob runs 3:27:50. I don't really see him beating Hicham's time tbh Just look at that guy he ran sub 3:27 like 4 times or so. Jakob isn't quite there (yet) he can go almost as fast as Cheruiyot who is the best and most consistant 1.500m runner of our time can't argument against it. Timmy and Jakob's problem is that the pace make is very poor like a russian pace maker just ran 52 for the first lap and 56 or slower for the second at a WR attempt

[@tennisnow2448]

Hisham run sub 3.27 five times

[@liamroche1473]

Reason number zero: he is 20 and not yet at his peak.

[@nickwillisfourlaps]

At this point we can't really look at age, but moreso years training at a world class level. I'd say the odds of him being motivated to keep up the grind at 25 are not very high, especially having already reached the top.

[@liamroche1473]

@@nickwillisfourlaps It's not the top for him unless he is beating everyone and has at least one world record, IMO. He's only just had his biggest success after a long period of not being #1!

[@reidun-engh8824]

Why cant we look at age? :)

[@transparentknowledge7288]

Keep dreaming The WR stood for 24y for a reason When he ran sub 3:27 come talk to me . by the way only 4 players in history managed to do 3:27 el G - lagat - kiprop and morceli . el G - lagat - kiprop managed to do do 3:26 And since the WR is 3:26:00 mean he needs to run a 3:25:99 witch means he needs to run a sub 55s/lap Good luck 😂

[@runninstermz]

My friend and I have a bet going on Jakob. We both think that he is an amazing fast runner, but the WR's right now are just so fast that for the same reason you talk about the conditions that are required to set him up for success and take down a WR are hard to all get right at the same time. So I have a bet that he has until he turns 30 to break a WR. I bet that he will not break one. it can be any WR, he just has to break 1 WR before he turns 30 and my buddy will win. Loser buys tickets to the Olympic trials. I think Jakob is going to be considered amongst the greatest runners and have a lot of medal in his trophy room, but no WR.

[@robertspies4695]

Interested in another bet? If so, lets set it up before Saturday afternoon.

[@connorplagens8670]

Go blue!!

[@nickwillisfourlaps]

Champions of the west!

[@BellLapMiler]

How many yrs will it take for Hobbs to run under 330 for the 15 & will he be a legitimate contender come Paris Olympics....#JakobHobbsCole

[@JH-mg2oj]

Why don’t you be the pace marker Nick?

[@nickwillisfourlaps]

Too many donuts this past week.

[@LearnHowToDrawHub]

Hey Nick, nice video!

[@nickwillisfourlaps]

cheers!

[@Khotsa]

This kid wins an Olympic gold and everyone thinks he’s goat already. There’s an 18 yr old Kenyan kid who was 2nd at Kenyan trials that no one is talking about. He was not allowed at olympics due to inexperience

[@nickwillisfourlaps]

Interesting thinking. I will say that the 18 year old got bumped from the team so they could get Cheryiot in, and Jakob handled him pretty easily. The hamstring issue might have been legitimate though.