Canada’s Massive Shortage of Family-Sized Homes + Is Canada’s Economy About to Get a Lot Worse?

[@damiankanarek7252]

I want to know what those 500,000 new PRs are.. Who are we importing? I just today heard about a 40+ year old musician from the Middle East who was having a hard time finding a footing after arriving here on a PR... Why are we importing 40+ year old musicians into Canada? Is there a musician shortage that I'm not aware of?

[@rdefacendis]

WIth a downward swing of non permanent residents, the fine highly levered, landlords in the suburbs will not be able to fill their basements with international students.

[@kevinn1158]

I've asked every downtown city councillor about family housing supply. Adam Vaughn, Joe Cressy and Ausma Malik and they all gave clueless answers. Adam said they would move to tiny apts or out to the suburbs, Joe said the same thing although he then started to talk about public housing being built downtown...the only family housing being built downtown. Go figure. None of these people mentioned densifying core city streets with 5-8 storey family unit buildings. 20 yrs of donkeys running the city. In fact, downtown councillors have actively blocked family unit building forever. Extremely high development fees, land transfers taxes, dragged out 5-6 yr approvals. Playing games with the small developers. Nobody wants to deal with these people unless you are building 50-70 storeys. Re cuts. BOC can't cut 100 basis points this year unless the Canadian economy drives into a recession. It just won't happen. US treasuries are actually going up the last 2 weeks. I just can't see the BOC will cut in June because it will set off the real estate sector again. 200 basis points? No way. Dropping rates that quickly will tank the Canadians dollar and that will continue to increase inflationary pressures on imported goods or oil etc. I think we are really facing a stagflationary economy for 7-10 yrs given the crazy policies allowing people to leverage themselves to real estate so much. And the gov't needs to clamp down on corporations and investors hoarding properties. Tax them at commercial rates.

[@newworld6474]

in Beijing they had this problem and had before stipulated that all new apartments/condo buildings be mixed sized according to the communities needs ... ..... for example new buildings should be a 1/4 900+, 1200+, 1500+ and 2000+ sq ft etc ...

[@CoconutPatel]

Ya but we're in Canada so we're not going to do this cuz it makes too much sense 😂

[@zomgoose]

The BoC isn't going to drop rates because they're at the very high end of their target. That's not how it works. They will drop rates when there's an economic crisis. Banksters, real estate agents, investment firms want the easy money to start flowing again. It's all self-serving for them to continue profiting from inflation while the middle-class is eviscerated. The Immigration Crisis is the biggest problem facing Canadians now.

[@HaydonAshurstFamily]

The market disagrees with you

[@zomgoose]

the market has been wrong about "rate cuts at the next meeting" for 2 years

[@nospm1244]

Edge Analytics will tell you exactly what you want to hear, assuming you're overleveraged as hell

[@DanSmith-xj3cr]

Fixed mortgage rates are based on bond yields which are much more impacted by the US fed then BoC. Drastically reducing rates would just weaken the dollar, increase inflation and do very little on mortgages except for variables.

[@HaydonAshurstFamily]

True, but if BoC drops rates those renewing mortgages could find relief by going variable

[@jccucc]

There are all sorts of building lots in the GTA available to build on immediately . It is an affordability issue that is the problem.

[@Stormshfter]

I guess Tiff Maclin better make a call to the Bond market in Canada and the US. He needs to tell them to get yields down to 3% because people need to renew their mortgages. Lol. The BOC has no power over this, it's a mirage. Unless he cuts 225bsp and it's 4% variables all around, which ain't happening either.

[@argeldelacruz9545]

So what

[@TheNewSchoolGamer]

I think blatantly obvious data points are being overlooked: Consumer spending, the number of food bank visits, poverty rates, crime rates, homelessness, etc.... Ask anyone who's lived in Canada for 5+ years and they'll probably tell you the quality of life is noticeably different currently and not in a good way If the feds follow through with all of their immigration policies that they recently proposed we may have higher population growth than we do now

[@Aitch-102]

29:00 "Everything is cyclical" yes, but some of this cycle is canada catching up with the modern world.

[@EmilyHamsterLover]

Whatever the government says, they actually donthe opposite. So trudeau said he wants home values to stay high, for people to retire off their home. They are going to crash this , and make seniors go back to work.

[@argeldelacruz9545]

So stupid

[@gottasay1157]

government want housing value to stay high for the property taxes!!!!!!

[@davidsmind]

@@gottasay1157 the federal government does not make money off of property taxes, and the provinces are responsible for those evaluations. Regardless, trudeau does NOT want a crash under his leadership, he would be toast

[@Lifeisapartydresslikeit]

Exactly!! He’s toast already - imagine if he takes away what boomers have worked hard for? He would be assassinated!

[@coreyvanular6195]

Inflation is terrible , they will not cut rates. The jobs report was cart girls working for the summer

[@peej91]

This guys good at saying a whole lot, without saying nothing. lol he doesn’t know jack about interest rates dropping no one does. Rates dropping are data dependent

[@mariemacisaac7529]

In Lower Sackville Canada we have 7 families in 1 house

[@AlexSuperTramp-]

5% rates is holding inflation back. Lowing rates invites inflation unnecessarily.

[@HaydonAshurstFamily]

It’s counterintuitive but it’s actually the opposite now. High rates are causing high inflation

[@danioli48]

Ben is so smart. First time listening to him and will be following him from now on.

[@jonathankent6877]

Excellent conversation and the immigration factor is really key I think to the housing and rental market, so thanks for covering that

[@nospm1244]

Inflation fight is done - interesting. It was a miracle ✨️

[@midgetworld228]

It's not just homeowners as to why they'd cut. The banks need lower rates and the government needs turnover in housing to continue to fund their insane spending (it will never be enough) but the market is dead and 40% of gdp is related to housing. $300bn of mortgages are going to renew from now to 2025. Cutting is obviously not the right decision but they will throw literally everyone under 45 under the bus to save older people, investors and try to save their own jobs.

[@shsal110]

Great conversation!

[@benvicius672]

That blanket appraisal practice seems quite suss. Regardless of how the bank is positioned with construction financing, it basically comes down to another measure to keep prices from falling. Those are starting to stack up.

[@bobwinters5572]

Mortgages are already being offered by banks at promotional rates of 5.4% or less. Rates are already cheap.

[@Relaxlifeisshort2]

Always check logistics numbers and it will tell you all

[@Lpmeff]

I don’t see down for years

[@pismomann]

You mean multigenerational. Family sizes is the lowest it's been in 40 years

[@runningfromabear8354]

Actually, family sizes are the same they have always been. What's changed is the number of people who never have kids has grown a lot. But proportionally, the people who do have kids have same family sizes previous generations had.

[@mateofernando5066]

You're going to see rental vacancies increase because airBNB has been eliminated due to changes in the tax policy for short term rental by CRA. And, the prices on Condos are crashing now because the carrying cost is way more than the rent that can be charged. Rental prices will likely stop increasing and possibly see a small decrease even rather than a significant drop....at least in the GTA 🤔🤔🤔

[@mark3xZod]

Let’s unpack your insane over-use of the word “unpack”. Get a thesaurus! Dive deeper, explore, linger, expand, delve into.

[@krugmeister7301]

INFLATION IS STILL THERE.!! Just come to Quebec.!!

[@JS-jh4cy]

Shit another dump in the market again

[@calisthenicsnoob9990]

Don't forget all the refugees

[@cvdavis]

He talked about them as part of the non permanent residents.

[@Stormshfter]

The SFH shortage will go away on its own. There are currently over a million 3 to 6 bdr houses that only have 1 or 2 occupants each, the boomers. The oldest ones are nearing their 80th birthday. As they vacate for various reasons (death, downsizing, assisted living) these homes will become available.

[@HaydonAshurstFamily]

Maybe in GTA but there is a serious dearth of SFD in the GVRD and this will only get worse given ongoing trend of SFDs being converted to condos There will be an SFD shortage in the GVRD in perpetuity

[@Stormshfter]

@@HaydonAshurstFamily until we figure out how to stop the Chinese money from flowing into Greater Vancouver it will always be like this. The foreign buyers ban is a joke.

[@stephenfermoyle4578]

you never stop talking!! it must be draining to think you are the only one with all the answers? no wonder Canada is in the ''state'' that it is in....

[@Silvrchair]

These two are fried

[@Casey-qm1nd]

Your guest overestimates the effect of the hikes, and he overstates the pain that is being felt. By cutting rates now, you are only hurting the ones that are most vulnerable such as the renting class, fixed income class and future generations. Homeowners are in the strongest position and around 1/3rd have no mortgages. So how would cuts benefit those with no mortgages and those that rent, it would just make everything else more expensive.That is 2/3rds of Canada right there that would see no benefit from premature cuts. Homeowners have large cushions of equity and that is why they can handle a correction with ease. Low rates made affordability worse, and lowering rates again won't fix that. Think of someone that is retired and is sitting on a mountain of equity, some of those guys would rather sacrifice some equity if it means everything else that they buy doesn't go up as fast. There is a reason why many of the headlines are painting a worse picture of the economy than it is in reality. It is because banks and government want to gaslight the middle class into thinking that cuts are good for them too, but the cuts come at their expense.

[@Pseudonymoniae]

Absolutely: low rates help equity holders and increase inflation for everybody else. These low interest rates have been a handout to the wealthy and older generations that has been maintained for the past decade.

[@davidsmind]

The guest is also a crazed Zionist

[@HaydonAshurstFamily]

High rates are actually the biggest contributor to inflation now (high rates = relatively less affordable housing due to relatively higher mortgage payments) And high rates are killing construction, which will lead to an even worse supply deficit in a few years Also, a significant minority of owners bought in recent years when prices were high and have lots leverage (mostly young owners). If prices tank this cohort will be decimated and banks’ collateral will evaporate which threatens financial stability

[@runningfromabear8354]

Lower rates spur buyers on. As an older millennial, my mortgage is already paid off. Rates go up, I draw savings from investments to savings account for lower risk and decent interest. Rates go down, my house value increases. My 4 kids will never be able to afford homes as long as housing market is propped up. It's ridiculous. The housing market wasn't allowed to collapse when interest rates went up. Banks worked with adjustable rate mortgage holders and shielded them from losses. Which sounds fair as they were likely younger home buyers. Only that also protected me and frankly, I don't need protection. Homeowners shouldn't be propped up. A house isn't a retirement fund. They should have been saving for retirement. The boomers voted in politicians that killed pensions, they didn't protect themselves, why protect their retire/homes? They didn't want to pay taxes to protect retirement, let their pyramid scheme collapse!

[@Hoser584]

These realtors just won't quit, and they are having a hard time finding anyone who tells them what they want to hear, so they Should get off social media and go away.

[@fai8t]

where does the 500,000 undocumented people play here?

[@rolandvencel4256]

Good podder episode!