Canadian Households Need to Adjust to Higher Mortgage Rates - w/ Doug Porter - The Loonie Hour EP138

[@saretsky]

Get your tickets to our Calgary Social Hour on June 13th www.eventbrite.com/e/loonie-hour-calgary-social-june-13th-tickets-921020736817

[@nicolasbenson009]

Mortgage rates are currently at an all time high since 2000(24 years) and based on statistics on inflation, we might see that number skyrocket further, a 30-year fixed rate was only 5% this time last year, so do I just keep waiting for a housing crash before buying or redirect my focus to the equity market

[@BridgetMiller-]

The stock market is no different, to maintain profit, you need to have some in-depth knowledge on the market

[@berniceburgos-]

True, I mostly just buy and hold stocks, but my portfolio has been mostly in the red for quite awhile now. Unfortunately to be able to make good gains, you’ll need to be consistent and restructure your portfolio frequently.

[@tatianastarcic]

in my opinion, it was much easier investing back in the 60s but it’s a lot trickier now, those making consistent profit in these times are professionals reason I’ve been using an advisor for the past 5 years to consistently build my portfolio in preparations for retirement.

[@Michaelparker12]

my partner’s been considering going the same route, could you share more info please on the advisor that guides you.

[@tatianastarcic]

Finding financial advisors like Melissa Terri Swayne who can assist you shape your portfolio would be a very creative option. There will be difficult times ahead, and prudent personal money management will be essential to navigating them.

[@Jo-mf2vu]

Realtors ❤ Bank Economists

[@MR007-r3f]

🎯

[@normalaverageeverydayguy2600]

"robust immigration growth". Nice political way of saying immigration levels are grotesquely out of whack.

[@meddlehedd1194]

15:40 "inflation is mostly a shelter cost?"...this guy is out to lunch. In 2012, a F-250 4x4 diesel was $60,000. Last year it was well over $200,000. Try to buy parts for trucks and farm equipment. Unskilled labour is $17/hr and you can't put them on a machine because all they do is screw up and break stuff. Diesel fuel is over 50% more than it was 3 years ago.

[@GG-os4is]

Your choice of truck is not part of the CPI basket.

[@jkuty2]

"mostly"

[@samspade1841]

A top F250 is over $100000 not $200000

[@wesleylawrence6439]

You have to consider the guys talking are insulated from these problems. Maybe they are trying to help , however they do see the world through a different lense.

[@paulinebowen5170]

Great discussion. I am with Rich and Boomer. NO CUTS!

[@karlkuepper-cp3lt]

In the 50’s skilled Europeans immigrated to Canada. The tenants of my properties today 36:07 are primarily young Asians with few skills, poor work ethic and many attending suspect schools of “higher learning”. Their goal, it appears to me, establish residency and work at getting more relatives to do likewise. Change being the only constant, Canada will become something unrecognizable to the present generation.

[@strawwalker8177]

If home owners can't adjust to higher rates they need to sell

[@segasys1339]

No refinance better. Helicopter money and helicopter immigrants are inbound moon soon real estate.

[@HardKnocks-pi7pc]

You are a fool

[@Jo-mf2vu]

Fixed rates at 4.5 is predicted at end of 2028. There is no way house prices will stay same or increase if incomes dont go substantialy higher.

[@wesleylawrence6439]

Rates need to go higher!

[@MR007-r3f]

We are at the tail end of the economic cycle. Consequently, purchasing real estate at this juncture may not be prudent, as the market is likely to experience a downturn before the commencement of a new cycle.

[@EDA-du5os]

I really enjoy your videos. I would love to see a video that includes RRSP meltdown as well as rental income or stocks. Thank you so much.

[@anshumanSrivastavaHere_I_COME]

if BOC had balls which they don't they would hold all year

[@thanks4that261]

What does having balls have to do with anything? What do you mean?

[@anshumanSrivastavaHere_I_COME]

@@thanks4that261 we need a cleansing of all the cheap money mentality

[@BornDeer]

If they had any balls they would be raising rates higher - not keeping them where they are. Inflation is waay too high. It’s no where near 2%. More like 20%

[@Hazara26]

Because when you screw things then you have balls left to play and BOC doesn't have balls to play after bring country down.

[@Chris-se3nc]

Not sure you should make bets with Doug. He didn’t blink once in the entire conversation.

[@gibstr]

Doug Porter was a fabulous guest. I throughly enjoy his comments and geopolitical outlook. I can't agree more with his concerns and comments on the agreement review in 2026.

[@fernandop4393]

It is clearly that the bank sector is desperate for a rate cut…. Inflation is done?!!!!!!!! Oh my. Does he goes to grocery stores?

[@ChrisG4Johny]

Will definitely will be there in Calgary! Great episode, cheers!

[@shinshi9696]

Richard is just a wonderful guy and good company

[@andrewvader1955]

I would bet 3.25% would be where BOC settles. Just a guess.

[@robertzygadlo1157]

Come to Edmonton and celebrate a Stanley cup win with us

[@TheWoodfordreserve]

Soon to be Edmonstan... You're getting Torontonized and you won't notice until it's too late.

[@chrisrunn9540]

The government is spending too much and the economy is still holding at 2% can’t see them cutting until fall. Need to boost the economy near Christmas

[@benvicius672]

Hi Rich, I'll come to your event in Montreal!

[@Mrgorr7777]

Great show - Thanks guys.

[@jadejackson1509]

A tax on capital tax inclusion rate reduces corporate profits on housing and house flipping, it theoretically reduces investment in housing and canada has an over focus on housing and an under focus on business and a capital gains inclusion tax does not actually effect businesses nearly as much as it effects real estate speculation. That is an obvious way it could effect it.

[@RC-fh2lk]

I remember Tiff saying rates will be low for a long time!!

[@amyirvine7521]

Love this guy and the loonie hour

[@veeo987]

I feel like it would take a lot of cut baby cut to reverse the current housing bear market. 50 BPS cuts won't reverse that trend.

[@veeo987]

@@DrMarkyMark Rent inflation is decimating potential buyers and many homeowners are struggling with increasing ownership costs. We will see a pause in price growth for a few years until the economy gains back its strength, if not price declines. I don't think the entire country will crash, only speculative markets. But we won't see prices go to the moon like realtors promise.

[@Stormshfter]

Last time we had a situation like this was in the late 70s early 80s. Inflation soared, rates went up and property value went down somewhat and then stayed flat for over a decade. I bought my house in Abbotsford in 1996 for $128k, the fellow I bought it from bought it for $112k in 1981. That's less than 1% increase per year for 15 straight years. I can prove it on Zillow.

[@veeo987]

@@Stormshfter Yes I feel like a similar scenario is very possible in the near future. The bulk of value gains is passed. It's still worth to buy a house as a primary residence, but as an investment, it's awful.

[@foralex100]

Doug is a scholar and a gentleman 👍

[@shanesteele778]

I have the interest rates for the 60 years 4.2 in 1960 7.1 in 70 10- 22% 1980 0.25 in 2010 when you take the average 5% it is average for the last 60 years thats a normal interest rate

[@justinjones5281]

We need to pay people more but can’t afford to without inflating cost of goods. We are at a point where the clouds are building up and no one has any clue what real rain feels like. I don’t see a way out of this issue other than a major change to the lifestyles of Canadians and Americans as a whole.

[@chrisT16161]

Responsible spending by governments would be a good start.

[@medwayhistory3101]

Clearly there isn’t a lot of grocery store visits factored in here; not just rent and mortgage inflation out there! Food, fuel, family costs outrageous and shocking for the average and majority of Canadians. Maybe the elites are seeing blue skies. Credibility issue IMO!

[@cortlandlaidlaw3888]

No Sask shout out? :(

[@noahmalchy2676]

Steve just channeled his inner BC born n raised energy at 48:48

[@FabriceBourgeois0]

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[@redeyesband]

I appreciate the professionalism and dedication of the team behind Linda’s trade signal service.

[@Peter-sz1sn]

It's funny how you guys (the three amigos) have a slightly diff view of real estate than Doug: your view is that the market has slowed down considerably, while Doug is very upbeat - the main difference is due to the fact that your view is based on the "boots on the ground" (more current) and Doug's view is based on the latest published data/research - two very diff things in a fast changing environment. Richard, love your questions! You should have followed up with your question on service inflation that Doug did not quite address. Great Canadian Content!

[@iTzDust]

“4 straight months of good inflation data” - ITS STILL GOING UP JUST SLOWER. These status quo economists/bankers are completely out to lunch. We need massive deflation for any news to be positive for Canadians.

[@steveshideler1333]

Deflation wouldn’t be positive for Canadians.

[@Rawdiswar]

​@@steveshideler1333Why not?

[@stevecatpatrick8056]

​@@Rawdiswardeflation is the most economically destructive situation to be in. If it was high deflation like the Great depression then that's actually even worse than hyperinflation. Mild deflation(1-3%) is worse than mild inflation(2-4%). Why? Because just as inflation acts to naturally keep the economy going and growing by spurring people to spend or invest productively, deflation does the opposite. If prices are going down it makes more sense to save and not spend now If it's going to be cheaper later. I mean in a deflation theoretically wages should fall but wages in nominal terms are very sticky so that doesn't really tend to happen You just get people laid off which again compounds into the lack of spending which continues the negative spiral and can shrink the economy quite a bit. Also consider what happens to debt: nominal debt doesn't go down as prices and therefore wages go down, So people find themselves in a trap where they would have a much harder time paying off their nominal debts. It's a really bad scenario and part of what led to the Great depression lasting a decade. The lessons learned from the '30s and the booms and busts of the mid to late 1800s taught us that lesson.

[@HardKnocks-pi7pc]

They didnt teach enough of a lesson as people dont save for rainy days they gourge on debt which is foolish

[@mgregorian]

Steve are you diversifying out away from Canadian real estate and stocks into US?

[@samalexander5236]

Yea I don’t agree with this guy, kind of sounds exactly like what I would have expected from a big bank employee. Just kind of stating what would be best for the banks and not really what we need. Sound money.

[@littlepinner05]

I agree and his logic didn't hold. Rate cuts aren't going to improve productivity or economic activity, but somehow, everyone with a mortgage will be okay with higher payments, without it affecting the broader economy? (even though economic growth has slowed with only ~50% of mortgages having renewed). Sounds like wishful thinking to me!

[@neilruane6758]

Rate hold this June imo. Great guest with Doug this week (as with all other guests) waiting for the unemployment to increase more dramatically. Let's see

[@Picklemedia]

@38:52 "5.5% is really high" Can someone tell me what the historic average is?

[@Stormshfter]

Was over 20 in 1981

[@jshin5991]

4.8 is the new 2.8. Investors exiting, only strong puchasing power people left over. Unfortunately at 2008 and now we are having completely different global economic situation. That time china was making tons of money out of QE by developed countries. Now we are detaching. “Money” we believed losing identity. Even US bond market just before opening bargain sales. Maybe we need to give the market some time to realize itself what’s the new normal.

[@edubmf]

Rich: asking actual hard questions Boomer: asking some good stuff Steve: total lightweight who wants to throw a softball

[@mchunman]

dis arsehole. c-11 this guy

[@HardKnocks-pi7pc]

Steve is so transparent, please cut rates so i can fill my pockets

[@parthppatel28]

Now I think the TRUTH IS almost as close it can come to a CRYSTAL BALL is that market is going to be flat for LONG cause rates will remain high for long and we can't move prices up or down both side have risks. People who are overlevrred now will capitulate so might as well accept it and move on.

[@chefvarshney]

CF called the bottom of inflation cycle and possibly JT calling the top of housing market; Canadian politicians at least serve being a good indicator of markets if nothing else😁😁

[@sonnyyeung6060]

BoC interest rate to fall 0.25%

[@robertpenkulis6364]

Great show as always!

[@MR007-r3f]

FOMO Pumper show.

[@donm2067]

Deeply disappointed in this conversation, it highlights how you guys dance around the truth.

[@stukatz2445]

This is aging well, Ninepoint ceased withdrawls today!!!

[@meddlehedd1194]

They (and Jamie Diamond) absolutely NAILED IT!!!

[@saint2709]

Rich, if ever you read this comment, I will recommend you read the book How to be a 3% man by Corey Wayne.

[@michaelcorey9890]

We all weep for the Canadian Banks 🤮, greedy fools.

[@AquaVivaFit]

Look forward to this every Friday 👍

[@strawwalker8177]

This will reset the market place Lower house prices for the next generstion

[@stevecatpatrick8056]

Great then the employers can adjust to paying us a hell of a lot more. My real wages are still 23% lower than they were 12 years ago as a public school teacher, That will Make it easier to adjust to higher mortgage payments. Also the new revised numbers came out and it turns out we were in a recession for 2023 so I guess that's a redemption for all the economists calling for one? Numbers came out - 0.1% for two quarters in a row, while unemployment crept up, That's a recession. It's incredibly mild because we pumped in 3% more people during the year to blunt it. But then imagine that it's actually quite a severe recession from a per capita basis.

[@isabelbozzo6945]

My bet is no rate cut!

[@Picklemedia]

@1:08:49 says the quiet part out loud

[@adamsullo2275]

Looking forward to the Calgary rager!

[@anneturner2759]

Richie !

[@Hazara26]

The problem is corporations and the government. The corporations want cheap labour and the government is providing them from India. And now average guys are stuck now but there is solution for everything but need sacrifice, but how just don't spend money and for buying groceries buy very very limited stuff and stall the economy then everything will get back to normal simple.

[@amandachevrier6741]

Saskatchewan! *drink

[@AmolGharat]

@Keith: don't be so pessimistic about Canada. Just buy 5 pre-cons in Toronto and JT will do the rest for you 😂

[@ethimself5064]

Keith, I have not paid for a hair cut since 74.

[@roseoverdose6451]

you're bald? cool.

[@ethimself5064]

@@roseoverdose6451 🤣No long hair. I carefully pull up and snip

[@roseoverdose6451]

@@ethimself5064 awesome! long hairs, no cares. 😆

[@ethimself5064]

@@roseoverdose6451 Yeppers

[@MusicMenacer]

Everytime I hear in the intro "We just gotta get Keith into Bitcoin" PLEASE KEITH, STUDY JEFF BOOTH

[@reefermadnesss]

Bitcoin is as much a ponzi as anything.

[@KarlBuckley-bw3vc]

Sure feels like we're in a recession 😢

[@butwhytharum]

Zsp... You and your buddies reit?

[@Picklemedia]

@44:28 "US productivity growth is pretty good" 😂

[@marcgatto9675]

Shadow banker Dimon giving us a warning.

[@meddlehedd1194]

Aaah yes the CPLie

[@Casey-qm1nd]

Doug Porter, another "expert". I'd rather trust the armchair economists in youtube comment section than this guy.

[@tvh6095]

you are the MSM!!!!

[@Picklemedia]

@37:30 "lower rates so I can sell houses" 🤞

[@quixomega]

Interesting interview, it's a shame Doug can't afford a web cam.

[@pbufh]

Dumb comment

[@edubmf]

Lol this clown Porter when BMO is tanking. How's the extended amortization pool Doug?

[@handaferguson]

Great Job!!! Thank You... :-)

[@Picklemedia]

How do you know? the video is only 5 minutes old

[@handaferguson]

@@Picklemedia Same way I knew real estate was going to be a great investment, I based it on past experiences ;-p Seriously, this comment made only to support them for taking the time to put this show together bugs you enough to post a complaint? “Great Job!!! Thank You… :-)” - that bugs you?? Get some help, life is much too short to waist on such a petty thing…

[@Picklemedia]

@@handaferguson projection

[@geraldbrowne]

Why is this guy doing a doomberg. He doesn’t have the credibility

[@Picklemedia]

@53:06 imagine if you spent the last 3 years pumping the market?

[@quantifiablyqorrect2905]

Well balanced? Another tonedead economist..... they've no clue how normal people live

[@phatster88]

Odds have plummeted to 31% since this recording on Wed.

[@DavidYazdy-mz4qg]

The odds are 81.3% right now for June right now….

[@Jo-mf2vu]

​@@DavidYazdy-mz4qgBax prices show 46% probability. Where you getting your odds?

[@cyb_structure]

👊🏼 🍿

[@marketsareopenmao]

Porter was super boring and said almost nothing interesting .Classic academic

[@edubmf]

Porter would *love* stagflation: high rates and the housing debt eroded, workers wages fall lower in real terms. Sounds like a banker's dream.

[@ScottWebbers]

Honestly I learned nothing from this guest.

[@melsenbabe]

Doug (and others in Canada) question how much monetary policy can affect shelter inflation when housing is the main vehicle that affects the wealth effect channel and significantly impacts money creation by commercial banks in this realty masquerading as a country 🤣

[@edwarddufour6503]

This guy was your most boring guest so far. Just talking from the bank/government speaking notes.

[@edubmf]

Is Doug going to start crying during this? > we need rates down oh god please stay tuned

[@Stormshfter]

He does that at home as he surf's Indeed.

[@chrisT16161]

First!

[@ethimself5064]

15th

[@ParanoidAandroid]

Doug Porter is a great guest! But honestly "Rich" and to a lesser extent Keith are hard to listen to.

[@HardKnocks-pi7pc]

You must want rate cuts-Doug Porter is full of shit as big time pain is coming

[@geraldbrowne]

Obviously one of those boomers that doesn’t know how to run a zoom account

[@roseoverdose6451]

only douchbags flex about being able to use zoom imho.

[@the_adam_gallant]

Love the shout-out to @wildhomestead

[@jimmybaggs5342]

Listening to Doug Porter was absolutely appalling. No wonder this country is in a fucking ditch.