What is Going on with the US Treasury Market?

[@blessings27]

He gave two examples 2020 and 2008 when TLT went up 26% and 50% respectively. He also used the word ‘crisis’. So TLT did well during Covid and banking crisis. If you are not expecting crisis after Trump takes over in 2025, treasuries are not the place to be in. People invest in Treasury bonds for safety reasons when there is crisis in the markets.

[@TuckermanLane]

Good points! One counterpoint is that Trump's proposed policy of high tariffs runs the risk of raising inflation, which would be bad for TLT price. He has said he's going to impose huge tariff hikes right away. So we might find out soon enough.

[@youtubetim3577]

Or maybe trump will just force lower rates making value of bonds to go up... all you sheep saying we need bad economy to have rates cut no we had fine economy from 2009 to 2020 and rates were basically zero, then you say rates lower will cause inflation also no rates from 2009 to 2020 were basically zero and inflation was fine, none of your arguments hold water at all the simple fact is inflation and numbers are run by the gov and they can make whatever story line they want.. trump will force lower rates and bond value and assets will go up ( commodities and majority of market is down massive from 2021 and at decade low values ) and everyone will run back into value and yields and inflation will be just fine, you wait and see.

[@stickboyfpv4742]

What if the crisis has been the past 4 years? And now things turn around?!

[@youtubetim3577]

@stickboyfpv4742 obviously the last 4 years has been the crisis can look at any small or mid cap or commodity stock and can see that, vale iron ore producer 9 year low even lower then 20, obviously last 4 been the crisis

[@WealthyChronicle]

Are we really blaming Trump for the Treasury market breakdown? Seems like oversimplifying a much bigger issue. Thoughts?

[@kendallhorween3499]

Dont get ur maga hat in a bunch. Talkin about anticipated trump policy impacts. Is that not ok to do?

[@prolific1518]

Smooth brains are trying to blame Trump for the move saying inflation will explode (didn't during his first term with 1.9% annual average) but in reality it's because of all the debt. 7 trillion in debt will have to be refinanced in 2025. Investors want a high rate for the refinancing.

[@erickanter]

@@prolific1518 Trump added over 6 trillion to the debt his first term. How much will he add his second.

[@prolific1518]

@erickanter cool story. Dems shut down the economy then begged for handouts. No handouts this time when the economy implodes because he's cutting government spending.

[@marc_valls]

Brilliant explanation ❤

[@Capitaltrading]

Glad you think so!

[@bobbyjrkennedy]

Trendlines mean nothing. The worst indicator in history. " Yields and treasury prices are inverted". Wow, brilliant. You're a genius.

[@privateprivate5928]

When prices rises, yields fall. If u can grasp that, u r a billionaire. U ,sir, r condemned to poverty

[@cmonz9]

The Fed can’t control interest rates. They just can set the rate.

[@theAmateurInvestorstory]

thanks for your video

[@nurlankamali9867]

Thank you!

[@jaydubau8755]

Pretty simple. The demand for US debt is decreasing while supply is increasing. i.e. too much government deficit spending, not enough buyers willing to finance it at these rates. For yields to decrease, government needs to balance their budget which will reduce the risk of inflation. Alternatively, the Federal Reserve needs to initiate QE and start buying treasuries to absorb the supply.

[@Aussie_Anarchist84]

Does anyone know what software they use to create these interactive charts?

[@Randomstiontastic]

Another channel called Bravos Research has the same style, would be cool to know.

[@aztecxx5269]

I think it would be Adobe after effects but I could be wrong

[@Mark4Jesus]

I don’t know but I think it’s possible that oil prices can be artificially, temporarily manipulated, which could be what is happening now.

[@JagdgeschwaderX]

US oil production figures are likely manipulated (total rubbish) and being over estimated by a lot.

[@Spectoral_on_SPOTIFY]

Didn't the fed just say they are not going to cut anymore and only predict about two rate cuts in all of 2025 and 2 rate cuts in all of 2026? That would mean A much slower Upward move For treasury bonds / yields.

[@johnygrits]

the fed also said "everything is fine"..."trust us"..."just shut the fucking door".... wouldnt really put too much faith in the fed right now.

[@davidmann2524]

They'll be back to 4 rate cuts by their march meeting...book it. Yellen put them in an awful spot and all the revisions come in January. Wouldn't shock me if we get an emergency cut. They came out with a hawkish stance because they market was getting all moronic with the red wave. By Spring the bad data will do the job for them. The plebes were getting too restless

[@Spectoral_on_SPOTIFY]

@johnygrits although they've been slow to act during covid, they actually have done an incredible job avoiding a hard landing, doing exactly what they said they would, and threading the needle for the past two years. I would give them credit.

[@johnygrits]

@@Spectoral_on_SPOTIFY i think the landing remains to be seen. Much too early to tell.

[@bt4dapeople]

The yield just uninverted. The recession is still in play

[@luke-mc9dt]

Bond supply up = bond value down Bond value down = interest rates up

[@SuperKanuuna]

LOL. Is this a copy channel of Bravos Research -channel?

[@piligrimius82]

My thought also 😂😂😂

[@MR-ok3hi]

Yup except a lot better.... nothing to buy and I'm so great .... and a doom and gloom bait with a bullish ending

[@Tradingshed]

My thoughts exactly !

[@bellgrand]

I was like: Hm... I have seen this style of video before. But there was no twist. Just information. That said, TLT is a good hedge against the stock market crashing. Everyone floods into bonds when that occurs.

[@Randomstiontastic]

They have the same exact charts and graphics animations, what kind of software is this?

[@daveb4446]

Okay, but bonds don’t operate like stocks, they operate like options. The yields have a vertical spread. For instance, you can graph the bond yields vertically and separate them by rates, and the low rates are selling off, but the high rates are still being bought up. The graph is lopsided and they aren’t grouped together uniformly. The market is still buying new government bonds at the higher interest rates. The fact that old bonds are selling lower is effectively meaningless if the new bonds continue to sell. In the worst case scenario where demand for new bonds dries up, it would result in the prices dropping under face value. Meaning the government would be selling $1 bonds for below $1. In a doomsday scenario the new bonds would be selling for half the face value, meaning that the government would be taking on $2 in debt for every $1 they get from selling bonds. This may sound extreme, but it’s only equivalent to a 7% interest rate increase. Which is the rate which doubles payments over 20 years. This isn’t catastrophic, but would have devastating psychological effects on the market. Market sentiment would be in the basement if that were to ever occur.

[@HoseKamacho-u6n]

No longer a reserve currency. No manufacturing to back your currency with goods.

[@jonathantaylor6926]

That's what the US Military is for. You think the US spends trillion dollars a year on the military for peace and freedom? Lol no way.

[@TheBigXav]

Trading volume is huge though

[@HoseKamacho-u6n]

@@TheBigXav Have you heard about Tulip mania ?

[@TheBigXav]

@@HoseKamacho-u6n lol sick reference brother yeah totally applicable

[@brianpereira7483]

Its the reserve currency as there is nothing to take its place at the moment but a peg to gold and offering a 5% redemption of gold on treasuries will help confidence come back to foreign investors.

[@TuckermanLane]

If bond prices need economic slow down to rise, why was TLT rising nicely (often dramatically) during the post-great recession equities bull market?

[@sebastians6556]

what about the FED holding treasuries themselves and Jerome saying he'll continue selling them which should also continue to create downward pressure on US treasure bonds.

[@stevebarcia5945]

The FED is not selling treasuries, and they didn't say they would. They are letting bonds that mature roll off the balance sheet. They aren't all treasuries either, they own MBS securities and letting those roll off as well

[@hassan_a9]

What about making a video about US500 index?

[@missouri6014]

Well done

[@shankarbalakrishnan2360]

❤❤🎉🎉

[@oppenheim2]

A recession has likely already started. And, it might be anticipating stagflation - higher inflation and weaker economy.

[@privateprivate5928]

Why are long bond real return yields at 2.5 percent? America is the nest economy in world. Vanada only has real yield of one percent. Something bad is going to happen

[@AnetaMihaylova-d6f]

Yes US is going bankrupt 😅

[@johnmay9699]

In the past treasury was safe heaven. Investors lost trust in us dollar and treasuries now. Nobody will loan to government at low rates. Because it is clear that the US government intends to monetize the debt. Thus long term bond rates will shoot UP!!

[@AnetaMihaylova-d6f]

Very true

[@erickanter]

They don't have too many options

[@AnetaMihaylova-d6f]

@@erickanter who

[@Mr_john-u7y]

I Hit $12,590 k today. Thank you for all the knowledge and nuggets you had thrown my way over the last week .i started with 3k in last week 2024..... now i just hit $12,590

[@adamdesterhaft7469]

I just don’t like the red thumbnails..

[@haronmyangel1607]

This time steepening coming because of long term inflation expectation and fear of déficit trajectory Before any recession 10 y yield should bé dropping not rising So we might face a liké 1987 scénario A crash driven by a bond market trouble This dosent look liké 2008 or 2020 but more liké 1973 1974 Fed is too late on cutting cycle a bust cycle should Come before a new boom cycle Most of M2 created during COVID is till there when crédit will bé accessible again for thé american average household Inflation second round will bé out or control

[@treesgrump6949]

you forget to mention about the petrodollar effect

[@ZeeshanDevraj]

As an investment enthusiast, I often wonder how top-level investors are able to become millionaires through investing. I have a significant amount of capital to start with, but I'm unsure about the strategies and direct I should take to help me generate substantial profits like some people are this season.

[@gmagz0647]

I thought reducing interest rates by the Fed was considered expansionary monetary policy? Action usually taken to get out of a recession or help prevent one that is imminent. They are pursuing restrictive monetary policy by intentionally keeping the fed fund rate below the 10 year yield while also utilizing expansionary monetary policy by cutting interest rates? Genuinely curious, I’m new to economics. Thanks!

[@maline11160]

Buffet over invested

[@SearlasMoriah]

You're doing a fantastic job! Could you help me with something unrelated: My OKX wallet holds some USDT, and I have the seed phrase. (alarm fetch churn bridge exercise tape speak race clerk couch crater letter). What's the best way to send them to Binance?

[@BenjEe-v1c]

If Trump carries through with what he ran on which is the most inflationary set of economic policies in decades, then a deep recession will occur.

[@martinwegner9802]

According to your statistics the crash should have already happened 😂😂😂

[@prolific1518]

Election market. Liberals wouldn't allow it and still lost.

[@shadowbanned4days]

Egh.. yank dem bootstraps America!

[@el4138]

These channels are funny ….crying for market crash everydays

[@Markhiggs4]

Clueless just look more than 100years

[@buggsmcgee9270]

FYI TLT etf has a massive "Head n Shoulders" pattern. $101 at top of head, $90 at neckline and this pattern already triggered !

[@dudewheresmyguitar21]

Fyi tlt has a much more massive inverse head and shoulders on the weekly chart and is bottoming between 84-87 before going over 100.

[@buggsmcgee9270]

@@dudewheresmyguitar21 Nah. More like half a head n shoulders on the weekly. But an obvious "M" pattern in the making

[@kenkrak4649]

Thats nice but you know what else is massive?

[@stickboyfpv4742]

LOL. Is this a copy channel of Bravos Research -channel?