Captain's Blog 28 Dec 2024 Polar Vortex 2 Heading East

28 Dec 2024: Happy Saturday! :)
We hope you're having a great Christmas week...only a few days left of 2024.
26.4% of the country had a White Christmas with the Great Lakes to the Northeast the lucky ones. A moderate snow event before Christmas outside wt360 HQ in Eastern PA brought us our first white Christmas in 7 years and 2nd most snowfall in 40 years leading up to Christmas.
The front half of Meteorological Winter (1 Dec - 11 Jan) shows the East and Northeast the biggest winners for colder weather and more snow than last year. A moderating trend early this week before Polar Vortex #2 invades for the Eastern half of the country in early January.
Season-to-date Snowfall is up +27% nationally over last year, but still 3rd least in 39 years. The bigger winners continue to be in the Northeast where 151" has fallen at Mount Washington NH (most in 19 years), 49" in Erie PA, 37" in Southern NY and 5" here in Bethlehem, PA.
The weekly snowfall trends show the snowier front half of December, now a lull before the next big surge the 2nd week of January with the second Polar Vortex surge.
World season-to-date snowfall shows much heavier snowfall in Eastern North America.
With the colder weather and holiday season, Flu has finally started to show an uptick, but still well below the levels of the past few years. A peak in early January appears likely.
Last week (22-28 Dec) across the World shows the U.S. trending -2.3F colder than last year but 7th warmest of the past 39 years. But it was a tale of two halves with the East Coast much colder while the West was very warm. Rainfall was down -27% vs last year and 18th wettest of the past 39 (near average). Snowfall was down -34% nationally and 4th least in 39 years.
This week (29 Dec - 4 Jan 2025) is a little misleading as the week starts off warm before the next major Arctic cold front dives down into the Central and Eastern U.S. Sub-zero temperatures are likely behind this front with freeze all the way to Florida late in the week. The U.S. overall trends +2.4F warmer than a year ago, 11th warmest in 39 years. Snowfall up +94% nationally but still 3rd least in 39 years, with rainfall also up +266% and 16th wettest of the past 39 years. The West continues to be the least favorable for Winter seasonal merchandise sales.
The 6-day snowfall outlook (28 Dec - 2 Jan) doesn't show anything to concerning with 34% of the U.S. getting some snow, +71% more than last year but 2nd least of the past 40 years.
Next week (5-11 Jan 2025) shows Polar Vortex #2 invading the Eastern half of the U.S. with the Euro model even colder than depicted here with a blend of the U.S. GFS and Euro models. The trajectory of the airmass suggests Florida could get a severe freeze with this event. The West continues to be warm and dry. The U.S. overall trends -4.8F colder than last year, coldest in 8 years and 12th coldest of the past 40 years. Snowfall -7% vs last year, but still 10th most in 40 years with bigger snow threats for the Great Lakes and Northeast. Rainfall down -62% vs last year and 18th wettest of the past 39 years. This will be a very strong week for must have Winter seasonal items, especially consumable Winter items like hot beverages. Expect another surge in Auto Battery failures as well. Snow accessories and equipment also likely to have one of the biggest sales week of Winter to date.
The World 2-week outlook (29 Dec - 11 Jan) is a blend of a warm start to the period but much colder back half for the Eastern half of the U.S. Europe looks to have some colder weather as well spurring sales for Winter merchandise.
World 2-week precipitation outlook (29 Dec - 11 Jan) does show a stormier pattern in the Eastern half of the U.S. and the Pacific Northwest.
We hope you have a great end 2024 and a Happy start to the New Year. Don't forget to follow us on social media for frequent updates: Facebook, Twitter, KZbin, Pinterest and Linkedin.
Captain Kirk out